What will March bring to us?
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1rcdhk7/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_feb_23/
So now Scam Altman and even the AI crack dealer Jensen Huang himself [admit](https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-jensen-huang-space-data-centers-ai-2026-2) that space based datacenters don't make sense and won't any time remotely soon (at least) And while Google is pitching it their most optimistic (and very flawed IMO) projections still have it 10+ years out at a minimum. Google does a lot of moonshot stuff that doesn't pan out so I wouldn't read a ton into what they're doing here. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if their test missions are being done to collect data that discourages it. So Elon is really an extreme outlier with his ridiculous claim that space will be the most economic option for datacenters in just three years. This abject incompetence should really be dampening SpaceX's insane valuation but somehow that never happens in response to Elon's fairy tales.
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Unfortunately they can probably afford both with the cash infusion they're going to get from oil prices skyrocketing. Unless the Straight of Hormuz is sabotaged and they can't ship it anymore...
lol. As if SA has a need to buy weapons... the US government is clearly willing to fund all of the expensive fighting, and with the US knocking out Iran's rocket capabilities, that means SA and other Middle Eastern neighbors could potentially spend less on air defenses. SA has been trying to divest from oil for some time now. I was calling it back in 2019 that SA seemed to be trying to prop up oil prices as they went public with Saudi Aramco, in order to sell off part of their oil industry to investors and divest from the oil industry. For such an oil dependent petro state, they've been funding a lot of EV companies am'i'right? They were almost certainly in negotiations with Washington over attacks on Iran, knew exactly when they'd happen, and had bought up oil and natural gas futures, oil and natural gas companies, weapons suppliers, and potentially even EV stocks for a short term trade. Oil prices (and likewise, gasoline prices) spiking could actually be bullish for EV stocks in the long run... presuming the oil price spike is sustained. However, natural gas prices rising could be bearish due to electric price hikes. The thing with electric prices though is that energy companies usually need to request rate hikes through the regional government, so electricity could be slower to react to natural gas prices going up. If oil prices skyrocket like they did in past recessions and we head into a recession, then will people be buying efficient EVs over gas guzzling SUVs and trucks? After the 2008 recession; Prius sales were great, but that was before the widescale introduction of EVs. Given Musk's inside contact with this administration, it seems odd how specific he was with the cancellation of the recent Cybertruck discount. The deal was literally over the weekend of the attack, hiking the price $10k...17%. This doesn't mean the whole market, including Tesla stock, won't topple this year. I imagine any EV stock buying SA is doing right now is short term trades. OR... maybe they're even selling into this rally... loading up on cash or buying oil futures, and will wait for a major market correction / recession when they can buy companies like EV companies at a significantly lower price. If you were SA, would you rather buy Tesla at $400 w/ a forward PE of 193, or at 280 with a much lower forward PE?
For every $10 increase in their oil prices, they make about $100 million extra in profits every single day if they can ship their normal 10 million barrels per day. $36.5 billion per year if the prices were sustained. It's also possible with the mining of the straits, oil prices will go up much further. 5-7 million barrels of Saudi's oil can bypass the straits through an oil pipeline that goes to the red sea. I wouldn't be shocked if they're able to boost that. However, let's say oil price go to $120... that's about a $50 profit hike per barrel. Even if they could only ship 5-7 million barrels, I imagine they'd make significantly more in profit. This could also be offsetting what would normally be a reduction in oil prices on account of a weakening global economy. They're cutting off a huge amount of oil supply from nations that are more reliant on the Straits, including Iran. 90% of Iran's oil is shipped through the Straits. Ironically, Iran, who's already in a dire economic situation on account of US sanctions, would sabotage their own oil industry; which is very likely the point of why the US and Israel attacked them. They want their nations' oil industries to make money, sacrificing Iran's. It's very clear a main motivation for the Trump regime to go after Venezuela was because they were shipping oil against US sanctions, helping to hold oil prices down. Between US actions in Venezuela and Iran... it's VERY clear that one of Trump's primary reasons for these actions is to manipulate oil prices. Either to prop them up or boost them. \_\_\_ Edit: added some more info.
Jensen is on par with Elon Musk in terms of shilling / cheating / lying. But then... most of the tech oligarchs are the same way. Jensen boosts everything Musk (and every other tech CEO) claims because he wants Tesla / SpaceX to buy up his chips, and investors to buy Tesla stock to justify buying even more chips. Doesn't matter if Musk is right or wrong in terms of the viability of these ideas; so long as he keeps buying chips. It's either that or Nvidia invest even more hundreds of millions / billions of dollars to other companies who then turn around and use that money to buy Nvidia chips... aka roundtripping. Google is pitching it because Google owns 10% of SpaceX, so they not only want to boost their own stock valuation with the idea of space data centers, but they want to boost the valuation of SpaceX since they directly profit from it. Eric Schmidt no doubt benefits from that, but Eric is also the CEO of Relativity Space... a rocket startup. Shocking I know. All these CEOs are looking at Musk's companies, realizing that the stock values are WAY WAY WAY above what the financials suggest they're worth, and it's making Elon Musk extraordinarily rich... because lying makes a tech CEO the richest, and so now they're going with the policy of, "if you can't beat em, join em".
Very, very bad yes. On par with Elon? I don't think so. When it comes to bullshitting (and being an all around terrible person) Elon is in a class of his own.
Jensen has been making the rounds essentially verifying all of Musk's lies. He's been claiming Tesla's ahead on autonomous driving and autonomous robots. So basically his entire thing is verifying the claims (aka lies) of all his customers. Not just one company, but all of the companies. By touting those other companies, he drives investment to those companies, and verifies that Nvidia's chips are untouchable. That boost those other companies access to investment capital, forces them to boost their demand for his chips to justify their crazy valuations, and boosts Nvidia's revenue and future guidance directly to boost their stock. If Nvidia can use that super high valuation to then give money to other companies to turn around and buy more Nvidia chips, roundtripping, then it only makes the company's revenue and profits look even better. The thing is, everyone always knew that if Nvidia's chips sold big, then it was only a matter of time before other companies would push out competing products, which would eventually eat into Nvidia's market share and future profits. Jensen's been working overtime, or should I say lying overtime, to try and stave off that competition.
People won't be buying shit because when you are starving, homeless or in a concentration camp you don't buy evs. That is the level of "recession" that is being planned.
Jensen worked as a Denny's dish washer. I've done that job. Grave yard shift, summers in a rural Dennys while on drugs (HS). He has seen some shit and cleaned up things that nobody should have to clean up. Elon has never had to clean his room.
We know car sales decline during recessions, but we also know that in previous recessions, we have seen fossil fuel prices temporarily soar, leading to those who do need new cars or can afford new cars to buy more fuel efficient new cars. Yes, a recession hurts the entire auto industry, but brands with fuel efficient vehicles should fare better in terms of new sales. It's the fuel inefficient vehicles that'll see the biggest decline.
Ok clanker
Nope. Jensen brutally told Elon Musk that his Terafab to compete with TSMC will fail.
Elon has been tweeting about race several times today. Back to his usual self.
A very busy CEO of 6? companies... It's very difficult work, only a super genius can do it.
Elmo shares that he bought in October are now showing a loss.
I would wager Google's interest in it isn't as an alternative to terrestrial infrastructure in general but seeing how viable it might be for specific applications for existing space based infrastructure. Something like well if there's going to be tens of millions of Starlink and other constellation users than maybe it might make sense to have a CDN up there taking advantage of higher bandwidth laser connections than trying to beam things up and back from earth all the time. I mean it's still a reach with a lot of development that would need to happen but it isn't nearly as insane as Musk claiming they're going to build chips on the moon for terrawatt scale AI training clusters in space in a few years.
There's certainly use cases for domain specific compute in space but their Project Suncatcher paper (which is riddled with gaps and poor analysis) is pretty explicit in evaluating satellites for AI hyperscaling. They chose to hastily publish a pre-print, I'm guessing because it'd get torn apart in peer review. It's shoddy and suspect work by Google's research standards and I don't really know what their end game is here. Pumping up SpaceX ahead of IPO is plausible given their outsized ownership.
Until the call buy operation kicks in. I'm put shopping today so it will probably moon after the morning after hours dump fades. I don't want to be touching this turd too long. One more go at Elon's bung hole though. I'm thinking mid 300s strikes.
Saw this misinformation and knew immediately who posted it. >The purchase involved over 2.57 million shares, bought between $372 and $397
I'm correct, the ones he paid $390 or above for are now showing a loss.
So roughly half of the shares he bought are now at a paper loss. Quite the context you omitted.
We are four weeks away from the 2020 Roadster being debuted (again). You know, as long as the CEO wasn't lying about the April 1st date on the last Earnings Call to investors.
Bought 330P w/ May expiry on 12/16 when the stock was at ATH; up 40% today but still down 7% overall LOL the rest of the port is getting wrecked today so they're doing their job at least.
But it was reported that most shares are bought at $397. Much less amount were bought at $372.
4 345 june exp and oh man tsla is dropping.
hopefully that's the last we'll see of all that "420" nonsense
right, looking at: https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000110465925089693/000110465925089693-gen.pdf his average price on that $1B is right where we are now, ~$390.
[https://robotaxitracker.com/vehicles?area=austin](https://robotaxitracker.com/vehicles?area=austin) So the facts as we have them: Jan 22 is when tesla announced unsupervised rides were available. Tesla added 6 cars to the unsupervised fleet (up from 0) in the \~week leading up to and including that launch date. But SINCE Jan 22 only had 3 total cars active-- two ran from Jan 14/16 respectively until Feb 5 and Feb 2 respectively. The third only entered service on Feb 8, and is still operating once in a while. So if one were looking for a narrative there... Tesla FSD isn't good enough for regular safe unsupervised operation, even in the one geofence in Austin-- but they keep iterating with non-production HW mods and/or testing SW changes on a single public test mule (we know about the comms gear and the altered cameras, unknown what else they might have changed). It's going great!
Magically, it appears TSLA keeps getting saved from going below $390. Surely nothing suspicious going on there!
Yeah I kind of hate that they've tied themselves to Suncatcher as the proposal in all honesty. I mean it's blantantly just a group of AI and ML scientists making the supposition that the bulk of AI compute will be space based down the road and working backwards to try to justify it. I mean their system design section literally starts with this: > Working backward from an eventual future in which the majority of AI computation happens in space, we identify as an intermediate milestone showing that a space-based system could achieve performance roughly comparable to a terrestrial datacenter. That said I did notice their CEO use the term data center versus AI training specifically so I don't know what the shorter term expectations actually are. At any rate I do think there's likely other low hanging fruit outside of the AI processing constellations that are being proposed in Sun catcher that at least might eventually show up.
what the AI dude (Ashok) actually xeeted on 1/22 was: "Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin. "Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time."
Musk is probably down to his last $700m liquid boosting it.
Wall Street thinks Tesla is too big to fail. They will do everything to keep it float. At least before SpaceX IPO.
Individual stocks aren't only impacted by direct trading of that stock. TSLA is heavily weighted in S&P index funds and tech / mag 7 funds, so traders buying those funds would have helped prop up TSLA as well. You can just look at TSLA's chart next to the SPY chart and see that they moved almost in unison today. I've been hammering the table in this sub for awhile now that TSLA's manipulated status is highly tied into index fund trading, so a major correction in TSLA will wait for a major correction in the S&P 500. A clear example of this is what happened in early 2025. Tesla was overbought into December 2024, so its price did drop about 18% into February while the S&P 500 rallied. This would have been funds and retail traders selling TSLA stock. However, then the S&P 500 rolled over into a pretty steep correction, and TSLA fell another 40% or so. In the end, S&P 500 was down 21% from its high, and TSLA was down 56%.
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It’s only down a buck ah. The pre market and early sessions though have been a blood bath. Jared Birchall must be burning $100m a week now keeping this turd floating.
Jfc enough w the ta entrail nonsense mr bot. It’s tsla. There is a god damn criminal syndicate propping it up.
Elon Musk: Yeah. In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin. ... Elon Musk: This will probably double every month type of thing. It's on an exponential curve. Lol
>BREAKING 📐 Elon is a man of his word 🚨 After that 10-day window, Tesla just hiked the dual-motor AWD Cybertruck price to $69,990—a straight $10,000 jump from the original $59,990 starting price 🔥 lol
Incredible, this must be the first time in history that Elon Musk has told the truth.
Tesla trades near 200 SMA, while Spy at all time highs.
How'd you hear about this?
Yesterday it is the first time I saw Cybertruck. It is much bigger than I anticipated. With the size of it, I think $70,000 is the proper price for a truck.
He's not wrong on the first point, there probably are that many Tesla Uber drivers
Nothing will convince me that this company somehow staying over 400 isn’t manipulation. The stock market is one gigantic fraud
Crime is legal and war crimes are justified by vibes.
Because it *is* being manipulated, via the options market. This is a well documented fact, because manipulation on this scale leaves massive, unmistakable traces, like a giant dinosaur jumping around a football field. Absolutely zero chance the SEC will prosecute, though.
Are they selling any?!?
Ok who is liquidating the market to keep Tsla above $400?
There it goes. It held up from 10m shares being bid over and lost momentum. Maybe Jared went to lunch?
It's people hedging oil supply risk in a stupid way. I don't like Tesla and definitely hate Musk but the market reaction isn't remotely surprising.
I have no idea what you just said.
As if people will suddenly have the money for $45k hitler mobiles when gas is $8 a gallon.
Technical analysis is as useful as reading the entrails to predict the future. An ancient practice. And i would expect a bot to not understand.
Well if you stopped talking shit and listened to the arguments I've been making, you'd know how dependent Tesla stock is on the index funds. If the market isn't crashing, than neither is Tesla. And for the record, Tesla is already down 19% off its highs. The stock did nearly the exact same thing last year. It dropped about 18% while the S&P 500 remained near ATHs. Then the S&P broke down, and Tesla fell another 40%. No S&P crash... no Tesla crash. Individual stock moves aren't simply a result of news about an individual stock.
Isn't it weird that every other OEM in China has had their wholesale sales numbers reported before Tesla?
Again you are applying technicals to a stock that is controlled by a criminal syndicate. Rico does not gaf about your chart dildos.
If you think it's manipulated, then why would you give a flying funk what the stock does? In your mind, you can't predict it because a "criminal syndicate" is controlling it all, and they could do anything at any time. Completely ignore that a huge chunk of the stock is owned by institutions and funds... like index funds.
The stock won't break down further without the S&P breaking down. The stock's already down 19% in the last few months. It's consolidating, along side what looks like the S&P consolidating at a possible top before a correction. If the S&P corrects and people start selling/shorting S&P weighted index funds, then those funds have to sell their underlying assets. Tesla is overweighted, meaning the index funds would have to sell a chunk of Tesla shares. Since Tesla is manipulated through options trading AND huge buy and hold forever investors (like Elon Musk) who hold a huge chunk of Tesla's overall shares and limit the number of actively traded shares, a small amount of buying or selling can cause huge movements in the stock. So ... if the index funds start to sell Tesla stock, it could cause a rapid decline in Tesla's share price... just like it did early 2025. Further, that'll cause panic among some of the longer term traders, or at the very least, lead to longer term owners selling stock in hopes of buying back in at a lower price. If Tesla underperforms the S&P 500, it'll be automatically re-weighted lower in the S&P 500 index funds, forcing the funds to re-distribute funds; selling Tesla stock to purchase other stocks, putting more downward pressure on Tesla's stock. Last year, nearly the same thing happened. Tesla sunk from its December 2024 ATH by around 18% while the S&P consolidated. Then the S&P tanked, and Tesla dropped another \~40%... for total decline of 56% from its December '24 highs. The S&P 500 only corrected 21% from its ATH. A market sell off will hit Tesla harder than other stocks on account of its weighting and the huge number of locked up shares from buy and hold forever investors. \_\_\_\_ And to be clear... we don't know when the S&P and Tesla will break down. I'm personally looking for consolidation through as far as late April, and potentially a sell off through July/August. (That doesn't mean the stock and the market can't crash before then; we simply don't know when it'll happen) Give that uncertainty, going hard on the shorts or short term Puts currently is nothing more than a crap shoot. Maybe you get lucky and tomorrow the stock craters. Maybe it consolidates higher through mid-April before finally turning over and heading down, breaking the most recent low, and going into a major correction.
It’s fighting hard.
Where's my DOGE rebate?
Probably
6 year Elonversary: *"The coronavirus panic is dumb"* \- All around genius, March 6, 2020 And a 2 year Elonversary to dispel any notion that Musk is capable of ever being truthful. Headline: *"After Trump meeting, Musk says he won't donate to either candidate"*
[Prediction: US Defeat in Iran War Will Pop AI Bubble](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVpk3Y4uKhI) \- interesting theory - if the AI bubble does pop will it bring TSLA down with it?
I think its a stretch to create a flow chart that connects the future of TSLA to the Iran war. Any effects will be more macro than just TSLA...and TSLA is a pimple on the butt of the AI world anyway, so I'm not even sure why its in the conversation. Be that as it may - it will be extraordinarily difficult for the US to "win' this war, but damn near impossible for the US to "lose" it. Iran's ballistic missile launch count dwindles by an order of magnitude every day, and the drone cadence isn't that far behind. I have no idea what happens next, but Iran's ability to strangle shipping and inflict pain on neighbors is short lived. This will have no impact on TSLA other than global economic trends.
Depends on your definition of "win". Iran doesn't seem concerned with destroying the US military; that's a fight they know they can't win. They seem intent on destroying the US economy by using the tools they have. Namely, their close proximity to US economic interests in the middle east, and a huge variety of targets that the US can't protect. The US military is based around very expensive high tech equipment; not volume. They're great at pinpointing a target and destroying it. What they're not great at is finding and destroying a widely spread out force. Their anti-missile technology is also great, so long as it doesn't run out of interceptor missiles. There was the video of Iran sending a single missile at a nation, who then launched multiple missiles to intercept that one rocket. That's a great way to quickly run out of very very expensive and very limited defensive rockets. Sure, the US can position anti-missile batteries around critical targets, but what happens when Iran starts shooting rockets overhead, and then sneaks in some drones to take out a water treatment plant, an energy transformer, a section of oil pipeline, a refinery... etc. And the thing is, Iran can attack any number of locations in the various nations that they border. If Iran gets too desperate, maybe they start sneaking speed boats into the Strait of Hormuz, and start dropping mines all over the place. Sure, the US can clear those, but that'll take time. Trump's acting like the US is made out of money, and he knows damned well that we're not. The markets are on the verge of a major correction, and if the ME shuts down their oil production, their profits will drop, and those profits are often cycled directly into the US stock market. The general economy seems like it's waning, debt to GDP is near a record high, employment has been stagnant, our total debt and interest payments are out of control. Oil prices are rising. Sure, war can stimulate the economy to some degree, but by how much? \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ There are claims that the US attacked Iran "first" because Israel was going to strike Israel, and Iran was threatening to attack US interest no matter if Israel or the US struck them. The US, for some odd reason, couldn't stop Israel from striking. Therefore, the US attacked along with Israel... seemingly in hopes of tricking Iran into attacking the US military instead of their financial interests in the region. Doesn't seem to have worked. This has gotta be the dumbest POTUS of all time.
Tesla's February Chinese delivery data still not out?
While I'd agree it's next to impossible for the US to 'lose' this conflict given the complete lack of scope, clear objectives and the amount of damage to Iran's military and government that has already been done, I would dispute a bit on the ability of the regime to ultimately survive and stop shipping. Fact of the matter is we're already deep into asymmetric warfare territory at this point and that ultimately also comes with asymmetric objectives. Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military or have full naval control of the Strait to disrupt trade. It's enough for them to just blow up a big slow moving ship every so often and make the entire operation uninsurable. Similarly attacks on major terminals and other oil infrastructure would cripple export capacity too. A lot of this doesn't require ballistic missiles or even long range drones to accomplish either. Stopping it would involve securing potentially 1500km worth of coast line and a significant inline area within Iran itself and an even larger area if its proxies in other nations end up being involved. Thus far it hasn't been done largely because it's the last card Iran's regime really has to play and I think just like everyone else they're waiting for Trump to basically hit the limits of what he can dictate politically or get bored, declare victory and leave like he did with Venezuela. It's also my opinion that the currently US administration nor the current Israeli government really want a permanent solution to the Iran issue because of the political and personal value it's proven to keep both Trump and Netenyahu in office and away from court cases and investigations they would otherwise face. I don't think this goes on for more than a few weeks. Probably no boots on the ground unless Israel is dead set on launching an operation to actually secure and demolish some of the Iran's nuclear sites and possible draw the IRGC's ground forces out to counter it making them more vulnerable to aerial bombardment. Trump will shrug his shoulders and pretend nothing phases him, but he basically spends all day watching the stock market and how TV reporting himself. I think there's all but zero chance he risks tanking an economy that already listing by pushing oil up to $150+ for a sustained amount of time or risks losing all the money investors from the Gulf has pledged to invest in the US economy which remains one of the few economic victories he's had to date. With midterms a few months away and the summer travel season even closer there's just too many risks to having oil go parabolic at this point.
I'm sure Elmo is on the phone raging at Jared Birchall as I type this to move more money into the call-buyomatic-69-420. It's looking to close below 400 but I bet it will spike in a last minute effort.
next to your tariff check.
almost. it tried so hard.
The prediction, as I understand it, is that if Gulf disruption continues for some time, money will be diverted from the AI cash furnace, popping the bubble. 'US Defeat' is a red herring; I was simply quoting the exact title of the video I linked to as per rule 5. What prompted my post here was a lack of clarity in my mind as to whether the inflated valuation of TSLA is related to the AI bubble, or whether it is something else completely, i.e. based on autonomy, which is theoretically something else. The video I linked to was simply what caused me to contemplate the question. My instincts are that an AI bubble pop would trigger the same for TSLA, but I am unable to rationally argue why.
To bring this back around to TSLA, the thesis is: Iran will tank the worldwide economy = no more money in the AI furnace = bad for TSLA, because for some reason we take for granted that TSLA is more than a flea on the belly of AI. Is that correct? Welp...all that stuff about the US running out of money & missiles...the antidote for that is military spending on...drumroll please: AI!!! So I don't think this has anything to do with TSLA, but even if it did, this won't affect them much. Now climbing back into my armchair general's chair. In the 1st Gulf War, the air campaign took 38 days - we in the public could not believe there was really anything left to bomb after the 1st week, but there certainly was. There's a lot of stuff to hit when trying to delete a military's capabilities. How long has this one been going on - a week maybe? It may take 6 weeks or so to do it, but damn near every missile launcher and drone storage/factory will be deleted from Iran. We're really good at that part...really bad at figuring out what the hell comes next...but rest assured that in a little over a month this will be a localized shit show/civil war within the borders of Iran, and their ability to harm the global economy will be gone.
I've often posted on this board that less than a half dozen people on the planet really believe TSLA will "solve" FSD. What I mean by that is by now, even the "true believers" are really just holding on and waiting for greater fools - they know FSD will never work. Looked at in the wider umbrella of "AI", Tesla's total R&D expenditures in 2025 was $6.4 billion. Presumably some portion of that went to vehicle development, but I'll assume it all went to "AI" in the form of FSD research. Google tells me worldwide expenditure on "AI" was $1.5 trillion in 2025. There's certainly an AI money furnace, but TSLA's share of the pie is a sliver. And they haven't done a raise in a while anyway, so nobody has been throwing money at TSLA for AI or anything else for a few years - just trading outstanding shares. Now could some generalized proximity of TSLA as a "tech" company to some of the AI companies cause a bubble pop to rub off some of its stink on TSLA? Maybe...but IMHO the US military will try to plug the leaks in its ADA systems with: AI. So really the more successful Iran is at penetrating ADA defenses, the more money will get shovelled to AI.
The first gulf war was a very different type of war. Iraq invaded Kuwait, and while Iraq did strike out at a couple other countries, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia to draw in other middle eastern nations, those attempts largely failed. Most of their forces were defeated in their retreat of Kuwait along a single stretch of road / land, on the "small" border between Iraq and Kuwait. This war doesn't seem to have Iran concentrating their forces in one area; namely a nation they're invading, because they weren't invading any nation... In fact, they knew full well that the US and Israel were chomping at the bit to attack them, because both nations already struck Iran in the 12 day war last year. Then in January, Trump considered striking Iran again. Iran had all of the time in the world to prepare and to specifically consider how the US and Israel would attack them, and how to deal with such a threat. Namely by considering where the US' strengths actually lay. The US is great at very specific targeted strikes. That is unless they put boots on the ground, which Iran knows the US doesn't want to do. Therefore, Iran's forces are likely spread throughout Iran, especially along the entire South and Eastern borders. They're known to have loads of mobile missile launchers, and I can only imagine how much they've spread their force of 80,000 or so drones. Many may have already been distributed among their soldiers. They could put longer range weapons deeper into or on the far side of the nation as well. Iran has 610k active duty soldiers, and over 300k in reserve. It's not so much that the US can't defeat these forces with boots on the ground... it's that the US doesn't have boots on the ground, and can't target that many soldiers from the air. What's the US doing instead? Targeting leadership, defenses, and missile launch sites. The problem is that the US doesn't have enough missiles to stop Iran's spread forces from continuing to launch attacks against US allies. In fact, the US would likely prefer direct attacks against their forces, given that they have countermeasures and can pool defenses in one area. Iraq fought back against the US and allied forces directly, and got their asses handed to them. Iran is potentially ignoring the US forces as much as possible because they know they'd get stomped, instead allowing the US to waste their high value weapons bombing Tehran, while Iran's spread forces target places across all of the US allied middle eastern nations where they're least likely to be shot down. Because of the spread of attacks, the US can't concentrate defenses everywhere at once, and those other nations don't have the volume of defenses needed to stave off larger scale bombardment. Especially worrying is that Iran seems to be targeting infrastructure. Fresh water infrastructure is imperative to keep running. Now the US Navy seems to have resigned itself to babysitting commercial vessels so they can get through the Straits of Hormuz, because by shutting down the straits, it really fucks the economies of the US allied nations in the region, and the US itself. Iran isn't fighting a war of "our forces against your forces". They're fighting a war of "we're going to attack your economy in every conceivable way, and you have to try to stop us before we win". US forces just don't seem to be setup for that type of war. Given that Iran continues to attack even though the US claims they've killed so many of Iran's leadership tells me that Iran already planned for that possibility. Iranian soldiers are defending their home; their military commanders were likely instructed to continue attacking until they run out of weapons. That's VERY bad for the US, because there may not be any diplomacy available to stop it. They ignorantly and recklessly opened pandora's box. Now imagine if Iran sent their soldiers into multiple neighboring nations with the sole purpose of destroying infrastructure? How could they be stopped?
I think it'll take around 6 weeks. By then public interest will wane, and more importantly Iran's ability to threaten shipping will have been neutralized. I assume there's a gathering swarm of Reapers hunting for launches all along their coast. I don't claim to know how this whole affair will play out, but I just don't believe one nation can hold the world's economy hostage for very long. Even Iran's "friends" will cry foul if the flow of $$ throughout the world's financial veins slows down.
>Iran had **all of the time in the world** to prepare and to specifically consider how the US and Israel would attack them, and how to deal with such a threat. The death of their senior leadership suggests they needed even more time to prepare. There is no chess being played here. Iran get get the shit bombed out of it, launch a bunch of drones at their neighbors, and sooner or later both sides will find a face saving way to halt...until the next time. I give it 6 weeks. So perhaps a month's worth of oil contracts will be impacted. That's it.
Has the death of their senior leadership stopped them yet? Wake me up when that happens. It's possible Iran may have underestimated how good US and Israeli spying was and how easily they could target their leaders. Or maybe they just realized it was inevitable, and planned around it. I don't think you understand how large of an impact cutting off 20% of the world's oil supply for 6 weeks can have on oil prices and entire economies. The shortage alone will take awhile to catch up on. The US average gas price has spiked by 27 cents in a week. Presuming it is only 6 weeks of war, if Iran strikes critical oil infrastructure, or even critical infrastructure in those nations that's required to support life in the desert, namely water and electrical infrastructure, it could take far longer to get up and running again, and this could have HUGE economic impacts on the US. Like I said, Iran isn't fighting the US military... they're fighting the US economy. Their goal is to destroy the US economy. The US', now realizing that they done fucked up, now have the goal to stop Iran's military before they can destroy the US economy. And to think... Iran hasn't even used their over 600k soldiers and 300k reservists to invade their neighbors. If they do... spreading their forces among many different nations, the US and Israel will have to put boots on the ground, and this conflict could last a very very long time... especially if the Iranians hunker down with the goal of delaying economic activity. Sure, Iran's military may lose in the end, but at what cost?
Who cares. It’s all about AI.
I don't know what to tell ya - I'll be in a flying robotaxi on my way to Mars before Iran launches a large scale ground assault on a neighbor.
The only country that won the 2003 Iraq War was Iran. Anybody who says they know how the current not-war will go is selling you something
Thought I'd get a head start with tomorrow's 4 year Elonversary: *"I never lied to shareholders. I would never lie to shareholders."* \- Guy who regularly promises Poverty Ending Robots and Flying Roadsters, and said he wouldn't sell stonk, March 8, 2022
Trying not to be pedantic but you all (not calling any one single poster out but one is into novel length) are digging way to deep into the theory around Tsla price and it’s connection to the war and economy. It’s price is managed by a crime syndicate that at the moment has enough money on hand to keep it going as long as securities law lacks enforcement.
I googled it. Google said the report date pushed from Feb 28 to March 31.
[https://old.reddit.com/r/modnews/comments/1rllqrw/ban\_bot\_policy\_update\_removing\_automated\_bans/](https://old.reddit.com/r/modnews/comments/1rllqrw/ban_bot_policy_update_removing_automated_bans/) Wonder if this will apply retroactively to those bans 🤔
One might have thought spiking oil prices would boost TSLA, but it just opened for the week below $390.
It's not a car company :-)
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