TSLA Terathread - For the week of Feb 23

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1r65oqp/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_feb_16/

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. What will this week bring us with the world's most focused CEO? I'm looking forward to full vertical integration amongst all the companies!

I missed a 5 year Elonversary yesterday: *"Speed will double to \~300Mb/s & latency will drop to \~20ms later this year"* \- Chainsaw Wizard, Feb 22, 2021 SpaceX sells a 500 Mb/s business plan, but residential is at 200. Real world testing I could find is a little over 100, and latency is down to 45ish ms. This is a minor Elonversary to be sure, but yet another example of how our Tech Saviour really can't alter physics, as claimed, especially when it comes to latency. And we've also passed an important milestone. The first Starlink was launched in 2019...the 5 year life cycle is starting to come into full play, with larger and larger chunks of the constellation having to be replaced every month. 2019: 120 2020: 900 2021:1020 2022: 1,500 2023: 2,000 2024: 1,982 2025: 2,600 So improving on any of these numbers to match the performance promised a half decade ago only gets more difficult with each passig day.

>What will this week bring us with the world's most focused CEO?  Elongelicals are hoping for either auto-wipers or poverty ending sentient robot helpers. Either one.

it was raining cats & dogs last Thursday and I had to put my Model Y's wipers on "III" since the AI was thinking I can see fine

None of this is Tesla I want to remind people. Any success of SpaceX comes at the expense of Tesla in truth.

I have a feeling Starlink (and ultimately SpaceX at large) will soon be undergoing the same arc Tesla is going through, if it isn't already. Target a niche and expensive market, introduce a cheaper and more practical variation that becomes somewhat mainstream, iterate on it for a while while seeing explosive growth and high margins... then get dragged down by pie in the sky Elon bullshit that comes in dramatically over cost and schedule then never at all as the actual tech starts stagnating. Competitors gradually catch up and go further, particularly in China, growth flatlines and margins collapse. As much as I don't like the idea of putting ever more space junk in LEO and burning it up in the upper atmosphere without any concern at all for environmental impact I don't see why competitors won't eventually reach similar scales until the total addressable market saturates. Especially in China since Starlink can't even operate there.

The age of abundance starts with the Cybercab

We start this week off with checking in on the disastrous sales situation in the EU. The six daily reporting countries, with Tesla's sales total through the first 54 days of the quarter: \-2026Q1: 6,309 \-2025Q4: 11,713 \-2025Q1: 10,161 \-2024Q1: 14,835

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IIRC, TSLA just "invested" a couple $billion into xAI. Money is swirling in circles.

Oh boy John Oliver was fire last night

did the math on my March puts ($250 strike). They weren't going to make it so liquidated : | still have April ($260) and May ($330) puts in play to hopefully at least recover the money I donated to Elon's family office six months ago.

you know how the shuttle dropped those 2 SRBs and the big tank on the way to orbit? the S and X were Elon's SRBs and the tank is TSLA.

I've been toying with the idea of buying puts so have thought a bit about what the catalyst will be that causes a nosedive. All I can think of is negative earnings giving S&P an excuse to delist. Some think they wouldn't even though, by the letter of their own rules, they could. Also, I have been trying to get my head around the possibility that, e.g., Musk'd have e.g. SpaceX buy all the TSLA shares before any such crash, which would, presumably, prevent any resultant windfall from puts. Any thoughts?

understanding what drove the drop from $400 -> $250 in 1Q25 would be useful. Back then it was general revulsion about Elon's very visible leadership in DOGE's irregular activities I guess, though QQQ dropping 20% from mid-Feb thru liberation day was the major decelerant I suppose. Even Elon can't fight that tape.

What's the theta decay on those puts, and how does it compare to the price-tag on shorting the stock? Shorting is easier to think about, its simply "negative" shares. Puts include theta, theta decay, volatility, and other such complexities. If you do decide on puts, ensure you calculate the greeks! Its not necessarily wrong to buy puts, but you must 100% understand what the hell you're paying (or getting paid) for. I think the beginner trader should stick with simple shorts. Really. If you want more leverage and are willing to speculate on volatility, implied volatility, VIX, and other greeks... yeah get puts. But only AFTER you study them.

at my position sizes, shorts are boring. I lost the cost of a nice guitar on my closed position, but it was only a quarter's worth of divvies so it was my play money.

Not a fan of intraday TA but the $390 level was what Elon's "$1B" purchase moved the stock thru back in Sept to manipulate the stock thru the Q3 rebalancing pressure. Current $395 level is YTD low and $390 is ofc the turnaround support from the November mini-drop. This stock just lost its 4 handle again but deserves to lose all (3-2-1) of them, LOL. Getting there is the tricky part.

Will Tesla mark their Bitcoin losses to market similar to when it was up?

So the psycho; Whole Mars Catalog is raising money for his ongoing lawsuit. This guy doesn't even work, spends all his time defending Elon but allegedly is broke [https://aarongreenspanvictims.com/](https://aarongreenspanvictims.com/)

Its been underperforming the market the last few weeks. When the buy pump happend it was overperforming not going down on red days, and going up big on green ones. I can't see this pump going that much longer ELON will probally scam something into his space x ipo and leave tesla in the shetter

I thought his dad was wealthy.

Bullish

Is Starlink actually sustainable? The original story iirc was they needed the Tin Turkey (which continues to be DOA) to not lose money launching replacement satellites.

I continue to be surprised at how dumb the Cyber Cab is. Has anyone ridden in a car with even remotely old people? They're not even going to be able to get in that thing.

And if you instead went short 5 shares, would you have ended up in a better, or worse position? You must evaluate all strategies available to you. The WSB style lose-everything or maybe sometimes win big is the path to degenerate gambling bullshit and should be avoided if only for your psychology. If you want entertainment, go with that money to a proper Casino and go actually have a good time and at least get some drinks and a few hours of fun for the effort. -------- In this market, given the theta decays I'm calculating, it's far easier and smoother for any long term investor to instead short TSLA shares to the appropriate hedge an investor desired. In contrast, puts have all kinds of rather complex math (in particular, Theta and Gamma) to consider. There is value here for those who run the calculations but too many Redditors prefer the ignorant casino style bets instead of the calculations / risk assessment style of investing.

Just what everyone wants - a coupe!

you are 100% correct. This is my first Put position since buying puts on LEH the summer of 2008 LOL . . . learned that Elon >> li'l ol' me

He is but easier to grift the Elon simps

Just saw someone mention in another thread that the Cybertruck Cyberbeast trim didn't actually get a $15k price reduction as some EV blogs were claiming... instead Tesla removed the standard $15k Lux Package. The Lux Package included FSD ($8k), free lifetime charging, premium connectivity, and 4 years of recommended maintenance, tire protection coverage, and windshield protection coverage. You can no longer buy FSD outright, so instead, over a 15 year lifespan of the vehicle, the FSD subscription would cost $18k, and Tesla holds the right to change the price of the subscription whenever they want. (I bet Musk's kicking himself that he can't cancel and refund all the people who bought FSD previously so he can force them into subscriptions, boosting subscription counts and getting him closer to the first tranche of his $1 trillion pay package...) Lifetime charging could actually be a big deal given the vehicle's lower efficiency. At 200k miles and 2.5 miles/kWh, if a person uses Tesla chargers 50% of the time to offset their home charging costs (16 cents per kWh on average), then that's $6400 in lost benefit. It's an even bigger loss if the owner ever does use a supercharger, given that they'll likely end up paying 30-50 cents per kWh. Premium connectivity is $100 per year, so $1500 in value lifetime. A single windshield replacement could cost $2k, and I imagine a single tire could cost a few hundred bucks. Assuming one windshield and one tire replacement, that's about $2300 in value. No idea about the recommended maintenance cost. Add it up, and you're looking at a potential loss of \~$28k in value. Subtract the $15k discount, and the customer is seeing the effective cost of the vehicle jump by $13k. \_\_\_ So yeah, the Cyberbeast trim effectively got a price hike. Increasing prices should hurt demand; albeit I imagine Musk was going for shrinkflation and hoping customers wouldn't notice. Sure, this could increase customers for the Cyberbeast trim that didn't want FSD and felt they'd never use the free charging or the other coverage. Of course, the number of people interested in buying a deplorean is few and far between these days. Unless you count SpaceX and some Saudis. Interesting thing about Tesla selling Cybertrucks to SpaceX and xAI in Q4. A single quarter later and they're now both the same company! ( I don't know, that just seems funny to me, like Musk is 100% gaming with his companies' financials)

>..was what Elon's "$1B" purchase moved the stock thru back in Sept to manipulate the stock thru the Q3 rebalancing pressure Ahh... memories. That $1B purchase caused the stock to jump by 22% in like 3-4 trading days... hundreds of billions of dollars added to the market cap. Hilarious. I have to imagine a bunch of investment firms and retail traders were like "OMG, he's buying stock, he must be telling the truth about his end of year robotaxi timelines!" As it turns out, he wasn't.

Now, given its overweight positioning in the S&P index funds, just imagine what would have happened had the funds experienced a major sell off. That seems to be the main difference between this year and last year. Last year, Tesla began selling off (about 18%) into the S&P index increasing. However, as soon as the S&P 500 rolled over into a major correction, Tesla collapsed by another 40%+. This year, thus far, the S&P has hung on for dear life.

Getting S&P to delist will seal their fate. Then the index funds can start dumping. I don't see this coming in the near future though. I give Tesla (Ponzi A) maybe 5 years at the outset, but I think it's highly likely that your scenario will play out first with a buyout sometime after the SpaceX IPO (Ponzi B) using some arbitray valuation that screws over the shareholders, favoring Felon Musk. In any case, TSLA's behavior is too irrational to try and play.

Since SpaceX is private, any story about their finances is just speculation. Even more than Tesla's numbers, they are basically just Elon written fan fiction. SpaceX acquired Elon's AI company, which was making big losses to add to the cloudiness.

\> I have a feeling Starlink (and ultimately SpaceX at large) will soon be undergoing the same arc Tesla is going through, if it isn't already. It is. Starlink is another Elron fantasy with nowhere near the market size that he would like to promise, especially being that satellite is generally the last option anyone would choose when it comes to price/performance. HughesNet has been around for since the 1990s. I think they better understood the market for their services, and still never really became a big player. The demand for Starlink is highly overpromised just like that for CyberToasters, Robotaxis and "AI".

Felon is clearly working on an exit strategy for Ponzi A (Tesla), which eventually will be throwin into Ponzi B (SpaceX once it's public) as he continues to consolidate his empire of fraud.

The shell game continues with outsides investors getting shorted on each move.

Just my opinion, but I don't love those puts. I hope they're smaller bets. Yes, you could get lucky and the stock absolutely collapses in the very near term, but based on some head and shoulder target prices, they're not gonna pay off very well. Unlike last year, the S&P 500 has yet to collapse, and that's an absolute necessity before Tesla will collapse further. No doubt, S&P is getting close to collapsing, but when that is... no body knows. It looks weak as hell if we're being honest, but it could hold on for weeks if not months before it really starts to dive. Hell, it could even retest the ATH or make a new ATH before then. As to those H&S patterns on the Tesla chart: Tesla has formed and broken the neck of one very large H&S pattern already (diagonal neckline from April 2025 through end of January 2026), and it already retested the neck line and held it as resistance. The target price of that is around 295. That doesn't mean the stock collapses towards the target; it could consolidate under the neck line for awhile. The more interesting thing is that the chart's also forming a second H&S pattern as we speak with a nearly horizontal neckline starting in September 2025 (Musk's $1B stock purchase as you mentioned). It's already completed the left shoulder, head, and is getting real close to a right shoulder; with price nearly hitting the neck line today. That said, it has not hit the neckline in the right shoulder yet, and absolutely could rally back up and consolidate before breaking the neck line; just so long as the price stays under the price level of the left shoulder. If that happens, then it could take until late April (maybe even later) before it breaks that neckline. If it broke the neckline tomorrow, the target would be around 280. If it broke it at the end of April with the slightly upwards slanting neck line, the target would be around 285. Notice that the target of the first H&S and the later break in the neckline of the second are both targeting around 285-295? Now make a horizontal line across the chart at 285 and 295, and notice that they've been a major source of both support and resistance. (More of a range between 285-300, but you get it) I imagine that line will be strong support if the stock drops. As to your put option dates and prices... based on the H&S targets, the $260 put option may not pay off at all and price will just get whittled down to $0 over time. That's presuming price doesn't just collapse into a death spiral tomorrow. The $330 put option could pay off, but it really depends on when it cracks the second H&S neck line, and how long you're expecting it to take to hit the H&S target. ~~A drop to~~ \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ As much as I'm bearish on this stock based on the company's actual financials, we have to keep in mind that with progress being made on FSD and Musk continuously pushing nearer term timelines, and of course with this administration willing to give him the regulatory changes he needs, such as the limits on autonomous vehicles without driverless controls that's currently limited to 2500 per year. Just the threat of increasing that to 90,000 per year will keep the stock boosted, whether Tesla has a working autonomous taxi or not. Tesla's vehicle sales may be donkey balls, but as I've been saying for awhile now, like 95% of the stock value is based on vaporware and market dynamics and manipulation. (maybe more like 90% after the correction thus far) \_\_ Edit: Correction! I accidentally moved my chart's second neck line before posting and had to fix my target prices on the second H&S. Edit 2: Removed a line I forgot to finish. I was gonna say that a drop of 115 points will take some time. Price rarely just drops straight down, so you have to factor that time into your put options.

See correction in my last comment.

$1B to him is $1000 to me lol

Maybe fElon thinks we live in the Logan's run multiverse 🤷‍♂️

Have heard his actual liquid is around $850m. Now i dont think he is ever going broke but tsla trading like a car company would probably destroy him.

I don't know what Tesla is thinking half the time, they're literally providing 'solutions' and weird designs for problems that don't exist. Automatic shifting? Just why. That stupid ass wind channel instead of a simple vent that can be manipulated by a single hand and easily inspected by simply looking directly at it. Etc. Honda putting a lock button on the handles of some of their older vehicles was enough to completely befuddle older people. Those stupid ass doors on the cybercab are almost certainly going to result in them at best not figuring out why it won't open and at worst resulting in a head injury or fall followed by a lawsuit.

The full European registration data for January 2026 has been released. In the EU Tesla sold 7,187 cars (7,305 in January 2025, -1.6% YoY). In the EU+EFTA+UK Tesla sold 8,075 cars (9,733 in January 2025, -17.0% YoY). BEV sales as a whole increased (+13.9% monthly YoY), while overall European car sales were slower than last January (-3.5% monthly YoY). Source https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_January_2026.pdf December 2025 data [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1qnc09m/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jan_26/o2310z8/)

BYD sold 18,242 in January.

and TSLA longs were afraid that rural NIMBYism would prevent Brandenburg expansion LOL

>over a 15 year lifespan of the vehicle Something about that seems optimistic for a Cybertruck.

9 year Elonversary: *"There will also be little things that come along like free frozen yogurt stands scattered around the factory and my personal favorite: a Tesla electric pod car roller coaster (with an optional loop the loop route, of course!) that will allow fast and fun travel throughout our Fremont campus, dipping in and out of the factory and connecting all the parking lots." -* Tech Willy Wonka, Feb 24, 2017 8 year: *"Am feeling optimistic about beating the Semi specs announced at the unveiling for the same price. The Tesla Semi will be something really special."* \- Canadian Con Man, Feb 24, 2018 TSLA has recently released pricing on the semi: $290k for long range and $260k for standard range...compared to $180k/$150k. No real word on whether or not it meets specs, has that million mile warranty, "platooning", autonomy, or guaranteed 7 cent power.

Its fun to browse NHTSA's website and look at customer complaints on the Cybertruck. Enjoy some of my favorite. Front body panel of hood came unglued The contact stated that while the vehicle was parked, the contact exited the vehicle and the front driver-side door independently closed and slammed his right hand in the door, injuring three of his fingers. The contact sought medical attention and was informed that he had sustained internal bleeding  Windshield crack spontaneously while using defrost function TESLA refused cover it with warranty I experienced an incident where the passenger front door unlatched, completely by itself without pressing the unlatched button or pulling the manual release. It has since opened itself again in my driveway. The contact stated that while driving at a moderate speed on a windy day, a metal piece, approximately 2-3 ft. long and located on the side of the sunroof, detached from the vehicle. The primary component failing is the Front Overhead Console Assembly (P-R-N-D manual gear selector/shifter and hazard light switch). The assembly detaches, rattles, and fails to remain securely affixed to the headliner.

I don't think Tesla has any intention of catering to old people though. They're not the target audience anyway. The target audience are young adults with a social media account, good wages, and a propensity for shoving cameras in their own faces 24/7.

had a day 1 preorder for the CT (it would have paired well with my 2018 LEAF) -- but the thing that was released was a joke compared to what was promised in 2019. So I settled for an AWD Model Y @ $6000 off list, plus $10,500 of gov't $$$ on the hood.

When asked about concerns his outspoken political views might hurt TSLA sales, Musk angrily said he couldn't care less. He also has stated that demand for his cars is "essentially infinite". His thought process is this - build the bestest ultracool mousetrap in the world then consumers will HAVE NO CHOICE but to buy his Uber-Mousetrap. His concept of consumer preferences, or even individual choice, is that these are "irrelevant". Same reason he bought Twitter, to control consumer thoughts/beliefs. Now we have Twitter-based Grok installed in government systems. So he is successful with Grok/Twitter, while failing spectacularly with Tesla automotive.

These cars are basically new too. I can't imagine how bad these things will be in 10 years after thermal cycling in the sun a few thousand times, having their adhesive dry out and stiff and so on. Remember a few years ago when people couldn't stop saying how Sandy Munro was the guy who knew everything about making autos and Tesla's would last forever because they had no screws and fewer parts? Well what they came up with, after lessons learned from building vehicles at volume for over a decade, was a the cybertruck...

To be fair, after inflation versus when the price was announced, the Semi prices would be $239k / $199k, so they're only priced 21% / 30% higher than originally claimed. As we know, part of that markup may be because the California government made a huge subsidies carve out specifically for Tesla Semi trucks, enabling them to jack up their initial prices to pump their margins, helping to further enrich Elon Musk... all paid for by the California state tax payers. I guess that's ok with them because so many own Tesla stock and vehicles. \*shrug\* Even with this subsidy, Tesla's undercutting their competitors' EV trucks to ensure they sell out, much in the same way they do with home and grid battery storage. This is critical because, as a result of Tesla's shrinking vehicle sales, they have excess cell inventory on account of their enormous cell purchases through their suppliers, so they need mechanisms (Megapacks / Semi) to offload cell surplus and avoid building inventory.

lol, true enough.

This had to be a case of malicious compliance on behalf of the people who agreed to all the glue. Had to be. You can glue things well (Audi's moncocque fx) and then there's "throw some gorilla snot on that and send it" and the CT is the latter. "whatever you say, boss"

What's great about Twitter is he thought the same thing, that he would make the platform even better and people would have no choice but to advertise on it no matter what he said or did. What happened after he chased away advertisers? He literally sued them and accused them of orchastrating a conspiracy against him and his company because of his political beliefs and then got friendly federal legislators to launch ridiculous investigations into 'potential anti-trust behavior'. Sure he'll talk about consumer choice, free speech and innovation as the only things that matter, but the second things don't work out his way he'll be making calls for his critics and competitors to be jailed, calling them racist and even accusing his potential customers of working in chorus against him. It's just like how quickly all his statements about how global warming was an extinction level event waiting to happen suddenly vanished when it became more beneficial to save his own skin by supporting Donald Trump. He's ultimately a man who stands for nothing other than his own wealth and sense of self importance. Elon Musk simply cannot fathom a world where he's not the single most important person in it.

How do you like it

That much is true, it's only for social media and one man's ego. If they were actually trying to run a business it'd be a crazy design.

From what I've seen a lot of this basically arose out of Tesla having QC trouble with plug welds on their panels in the past and Musk's generally dislike for stamping due to how much floor space it takes up. Adhesive became a general cure all for panels rattling and naturally Mr. efficiency eventually thought to himself why don't we just get the rid of the welds or the complicated shaping and stamping processes to make things a continuous piece and just slap on a strip of metal with some adhesive instead.

Elmo about to get a margin call on his $1bn purchase.

for $40K OTD I can overlook some of its weaknesses, like the austere interior and rather uncomfortable driver seat (it's no Audi). powertrain and the iPad UI is great, does what I want it to do more or less. looking forward to trading it in for an R2 next year tho, that looks to be a better car for me.

Elon has been spending his time pushing Restore Britain. This is a far right party formed by people who didn’t think the Reform Party is right wing enough. The Reform Party is a party that was itself created by people who didn’t think the Conservative Party is right wing enough. Elon’s Mom has also been pushing Restore Britain.

It must be infuriating as a Brit to have these foreign ghouls constantly meddling in your politics.

Apart from the cars and energy, what else does Tesla actually earn income from at the moment? The car revenue is falling off a cliff, and the sales forecast they gave out then, is already in trouble?

So from a technical standpoint there's three main areas they break out in terms of business lines. One is auto, which has been sliding for years in terms of both revenue and income. Another is energy which has been the only bright spot in the business for the last few years, but also another one of those heavily subsidy dependent business lines that probably has some upper limit on growth and in which Tesla maintains a narrow to non-existant moat. Their final business line is services which is largely maintenance and parts on older vehicles. That's also been growing and getting more profitable, but that's also ultimately just indicative of their vehicle fleet aging and new sales volume growth going negative and obviously maintains a kind of staggered dependency with new vehicle sales. What they've been trying to do the last few quarters is shift to more subscription income, especially with FSD and getting ride of autopilot as a package. That's likely because profitability continues to slide in the auto segment and it sets up a narrative for it being okay not to make money on initial vehicle sales because longer term subscription offset will be substantial. How that ends up panning out and what impact it has on sales (why buy a Tesla and subscribe for safety and convience features that even a Toyota gives you for free today?) remains to be seen.

Yeah Elon isn't even a British citizen. They say this means it's illegal for him to donate money to British parties but some people claim there are loopholes he can use.

first Model 3s are coming off the 8 year warranty period right around now LOL

Yeah, even then there's going to be limits to how much money they can realize in the service segment since repairs become uneconomical as soon as the HV battery dies too. I mean that's not much different from the engine on a traditional ICE vehicle but I don't think the time frame will be as forgiving as it is for something like a Toyota Camry.

So people who are perfectly capable of owning a car and driving it themselves.

Confirmed, now the DOD wants to replace Anthropic which balked at surveilling Americans, with Grok's social media-based AI who has no such restraints. But really, what bad could possibly happen with a fascist AI trained to surveil and attack Americans without restraints?

>This had to be a case of malicious compliance on behalf of the people who agreed to all the glue. Had to be. It's just Tesla's normal level of care and strict adherence to assembly procedures. Job 1 is always "Get it done fast" at Tesla, and that approach doesn't work when relying on adhesives. Adhesives need careful cleaning and preparation followed by careful application and strict observance of curing times. All the kinds of things that Tesla doesn't do.

Someone has bought $6m worth of calls with 900 strike price and 300 days expiration.

^($6M to Elon is like $6 to me)

Ahem, you've left out their most important product sector: *"I think* ***Optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined****. Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robots that is able to navigate reality and do tasks at request, there is no meaningful limit to the size of the economy"* \- Griftimus Prime, April 2024 Griftoking said this directly to shareholders - surely he wasn't lying, right?

When? It would make sense; call option purchases like that can necessitate the call writer to buy the underlying stock as a hedge; forcing the stock price up. That usually would happen when the option is written, but I guess it could technically happen when the option is bought. If there's a huge demand for a certain option, then the writers could always write more and buy the underlying stock at that point as well. Long dated options aren't something I typically trade, but I imagine could mitigate risk from the call options buyer if their intention was to manipulate the price higher for a short term rally. Stock goes up, they make money on their shares and call options, then sell both and move into a short position; which again, I'm not sure if that would lead to the options writer selling their hedge. In other words... this creates the potential for the stock to go up really fast... then for the stock to go down really fast. If you look, I'd imagine you'd find this sort of thing across multiple stocks; albeit maybe moreso in Tesla, given that it's specifically setup to be manipulated by having a huge number of buy and hold forever shareholders who never actively trade their shares, along with overweighting in index funds that can lead to cascading automatic buying or selling as the price moves. The fewer the active shares, the easier the manipulation is. \_\_ Edit: fleshed this out a bit more.

In general, only people registered to vote in the UK can donate £500 or more to a UK political party. However anyone, anywhere in the world, can [create a UK registered limited company for £100](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/companies-house-fees/companies-house-fees). They can then lend that company £1,000,000,000, which it [is free to donate to a UK political party](https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/political-party-donations-and-loans-great-britain/who-can-you-accept-donations-and-loans). Before laws are passed there are supposed to be all these readings where the MPs look at the details. How did nobody spot this obvious loophole?

I was looking for the possibility of a rally here, as I mentioned a couple of days ago: [https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1rcdhk7/comment/o71huye/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1rcdhk7/comment/o71huye/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) (My comment down below in this thread) If you watch any Steve Miller on youtube, his cycle analysis is pretty interesting, which when used in combination with other factors, like technical trading, can be a great indicator. His S&P cycle showed a slight upwards/sideways movement here that would last until around early March, with a downward movement near mid March... which made the idea of Tesla stock dropping significantly right now seem skeptical to me, as I'm not expecting that to happen until the entire S&P drops which would cause index fund selling and a broad market sell off, especially in the overweighted stocks like Tesla. However, Steve's analysis showed that we'd then go into another upcycle after the mid March bottom, and then there would be the April downcycle that could result in the start of a bigger sell off. As to the technical side, Tesla's already broken the neck of a steeply upward diagonal H&S pattern that goes back to April 2025 and has re-tested the neckline once, but could test it twice. However, more importantly, the chart's simultaneously making a more traditional H&S pattern going back to September 2025 where it formed the left shoulder, head, and is on its way to forming a right shoulder. (Side note: September 2025 was when Musk famously bought $1 billion worth of stock, somehow leading to the company having a multi-hundred billion dollar value appreciation in the span of literally a few days. Doesn't make much sense right? It just goes to show how easily manipulated the stock is, and further shows the potential that Musk was using that $1 billion purchase as a trigger for some conglomeration of big traders to all buy the stock simultaneously to create a short squeeze. Remember, Elon Musk thinks the world is a video game and he has proven that he has no qualms about cheating at video games. Who's gonna charge him with a crime anyways? The US government? HAH! Are we stating to understand how things work for the billionaires?) The size of the H&S pattern is huge, meaning the target price for a H&S completion would require a big drop. If and when that breaks (we don't know when it will), I'm looking at targets around 280-285... about a 30% decline. Which, looking back at Tesla's chart, wouldn't exactly be that surprising. It's happened MANY times before. That said, if this right shoulder goes higher before dropping to and breaking the neck line, say it rallies to around 440-445 by mid March... then the potential drop increases to 35%. If we see a rally to 440ish, and a longer consolidation period before the right shoulder completes, then the neck line break could be late in April, and the H&S targets could be hit out around July/September. Yes, the stock and the entire market could potentially just drop tomorrow. We have no idea. However, we shouldn't gamble all of our money on that hope. There are other reasonable possiblities.

There's always the Saudi Arabian crown prince or whatever.

Sure sure... just gotta work out a few bugs, corner cases, march of nines, etc. Then it'll be the single most valuable creation in the history of humanity.

> if this right shoulder goes higher before dropping to and breaking the neck line 🙄

Still can’t stand with those comments said Tesla is the only choice of electric vehicles.

was the only choice when the $7500 tax credit was active, since Elon had the only NACS cars then. I was driving a 2018 LEAF but saw the writing on the wall with that; was hoping I could just occasionally rent longer-range EVs from Hertz but that experience was getting worse and worse in 2023 so when I saw a $6000 inventory discount on a 2023 AWD MY I went and got it, for $40k OTD, ~$30k w/ trade in on the LEAF. Hopefully we'll see more NACS competitors by 2030, but last year's GOP rugpull on BEV policy is certainly disrupting automaker planning, in a very bad way.

Tomorrow is a 9 year Elonversary: From Spacedotcom: >SpaceX is planning to send two private individuals on a trip around the moon sometime next year. In a phone briefing today, CEO Elon Musk gave details of the mission...The mission should last approximately a week..."Skim the surface of the mooon, go quite a bit further out into deep space and then loop back to earth," says Musk Feb 27, 2017 Now Technoking did make some progress towards this moon mission - mainly he accomplished the most important step of all: Separating a billionaire from his money - some mark named Yusaka Maezawa. And he also pulled what I like to call the Roadster Switcharoo, and 6 people "won" a trip to the moon - my favorite being a cosplaying astronaut youtuber/wedding photographer name Everyday Astronaut or something like that. I wonder if his love for Elon has waned since the trip was cancelled (just the trip was cancelled...not Maezawa's money, I'm sure).

Tesla, desperate for sales, is now [selling the Cybertruck under $60k.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-deal-may-last-133100796.html) This is great news and we should see the stock skyrocket, despite the fact that they still won't sell any (except to SpaceX of course.)

How can Tesla be up nearly 40 percent year over year with a PE of like 370?

The whole tech market feels like an AI hallucination. SpaceX's valuation is up by something like 300% even factoring in the xAI consolidation.

True, but Tesla stands out. At least, say, Nvidia is making money.

Tesla is by far the worst offender publicly traded... for now. I think the SpaceX IPO will take its throne. Palantir is a not terribly distant second.

My guess on what their plan is for cybercab: This year they’ll launch cybercab as a regular car with a detachable steering wheel and pedals (basically a cheaper model y/3) with the promise that “soon” it’ll turn into an autonomous vehicle and you will be able to detach the steering wheel. Just like previous promotions, that “soon” will never arrive of course! But cultists will take it.

The fanbois will rejoice at a Cybercab with a steering wheel. They will say Elon delivered on his promise to make an autonomous car available to the masses … except that it requires a human driver.

NVIDIA is making a ton of money and its down because there's a chance going forward that it might not make as much money. Meanwhile TSLA has been in operational decline for years and floating on the promise of amazing technologies it has yet to deliver and where its competitors are delivering and expanding to new markets every month. But that's apparently fine because TSLA wants to cosplay as a start up despite being on the market for well over a decade at this point and hype up potential it really doesn't have... which I suppose makes sense because Elon's MO is pretending he's younger, smarter and more capable than he actually is too. I remain convinced that your average 'tech' analyst on wall street is some kind of walking oxymoron that has a terrible grasp on how technology actually works in reality. Elon Musk could come out dressed as a wizard and state he's figured out how to turn lead into gold and they'd all spend the next 3 weeks reporting on how disruptive it'll be. Just look at the OpenClaw panic and the complete lack of understanding of how business operations work on a day to day basis, software patents and basic information theory it demonstrates.

I don't think TSLA will ever sell the Cybercab to the masses. So I suspect they'll roll the dice and field a few of them in Austin, sans controls, with the hope they can remote operate it without crashing too much. And then declare victory.

It's going to follow the Semi playbook. Elon practically straight up admitted it when he said production would be very slow.

It' crazy to me how strangled the US EV market is by the split in charging networks and the abysmal state of them. The past two years for my month-long summer vacation in Sweden I've been renting EVs, and the charging network infrastructure has exploded. Everything is CCS2, and you can find fast chargers everywhere. Absolutely no-one except the die-hard Elon fans care about the supercharger network, because if you don't have a Tesla, it's slower than the competition, more out-of-the-way than the competition, and more complicated to pay for. There's several charging networks that all offer tap-to-pay, that all have 350+kW chargers, and that are building charging spots in good locations. Hell, even McDonald's is in on it and have their own chargers along the highways at their restaurants. But the biggest difference is that it's the *gas stations* that are doing the most. The dirty secret behind gas stations is that their margins on gas are about 0, they make all the profit from having rest stops where people buy supplies and snacks and hot dogs, so for them to pivot into becoming EV charge spots was a no-brainer. They don't care *why* people stop and buy hot dogs, and they probably have better margins on the electricity they're selling than the gas.

Palantir at least has a TAM to expand into. I don't see any moats for Elon this decade, and he lit his TAM on fire last year.

Logic does not make sense when applied to bubbles and/or frauds.

either the market's buying Elon's autonomous driving promises, or the market can push shorters like me out of their positions with stronger firepower. NVDA has a 45 P/E and for Tesla to get back to that with its current market cap would require $26B/yr in earnings -- kinda doable, they got halfway there 2022-23 LOL. So Elon needs to disrupt Uber etc. and have an active 3-4 M global fleet earning 15-20c/mile (and charging ~3-4X that) During rush hours ~100M cars are on the move in the US, so Tesla needs a 1-2% penetration into this TAM. The Hertz model is actually more 'disruptable', since there's a massive amount of friction built into Hert'z reservation, fulfillment, and return process, and Tesla could in fact wave it all way with applied technology.

2 year Elonversary: *"Tonight, we radically increased the design goals for the* ***new Tesla Roadster****. There will never be another car like this, if you could even call it a car. Production design complete and unveil end of year, aiming to* ***ship next year****."* He's rigtht one thing: There is no other car quite like the New Roadster - invisible to sight and touch, it flies around in the dreams of Elongelicals. Quick reminder: This is the *2020* Tesla Roadster he promised to ship in 2025. Oh well, he keeps kicking that can.

Perma-Bulls used to be fond of saying "zoom out". Now I don't hear that so much. No matter how well Tesla does from week to week, its been flat for 4.5 years - $407.36 in Nov 2021. Lots of deep lows and a few peaks between then and now, but its just hovering, waiting for a rug pull.

Tesla's Cybercab Program Manager, Victor Nechita, has left.

Oh no, just when it was poised for takeoff too.

I think its telling to look at the experience of these senior people at TSLA. From his linkedin, AFAICT, he graduated college in 2020, and interned at TSLA and a couple other places during school. Then he went full time at TSLA, becoming "Staff Technical Program Manager" for the cybercab in just 4 years. There's nothing wrong with youth in a company's leadership...but I can't help but notice damn near everyone in senior roles at TSLA are younger than their counterparts would be anywhere else. Its almost as if Musk is so insufferable, people leave once they get a little experience under their belt.

This is a good sign, it means that Tesla has solved the cybercab problem and he's moving on to other things.

So it's the end of the month and fsd approvals were given neither in EU nor China.

Right now TSLA share price dropped below critical $400 threshold. I think it won't climb back to $400 again. Especially if today it closes below $398 where Elon buy shares not long ago.

I think the true believers will buy until it gets to $401 at close

Mission Accomplished

For shorts to succeed, they need to make it close below $398 today. Otherwise, TSLA will be traded within a short range around $400 for at least 2 weeks.

Do not trust Elon's words.

Bullish

Remember when people were demanding the removal of mirrors from the Cyberstuck for *aesthetics*? Then no one did it irl because it's really dumb and unsafe. Just reminds me of the Cyber Cab.

It will jump by $4 in last few min like usual

Elon in 2017 - "People always ask, when are we building a new Roadster? . . . We are doing it RIGHT NOW!" explains it will be available in 2020. Crazy next year will make the decade point since that $250 million grift!

Honestly. . . Why buy a Cybercab over a Model 3 or Model Y. . . The car is very small and less functional. than either of those. The only way Cybercab sells is if it's cost is closer to $25K . . at $30K, I cannot imagine why someone would buy that over a $37K Tesla model 3 . . . let alone other brands.

I still remember the bad techno music and Musgasms.

I would pay good money for your list of Elon quotes. . . Such a great spreadsheet!

TSLA escaped again. I thought this time it could not withstand so many bad news in February.

Ha, it's disconnected from reality why would it be impacted by bad news?

Like a clockwork.

Fraud and front men.

You are getting downvoted for applying ta (dubious practice to begin with) to a stock that is criminally manipulated and you write like an llm on drugs.

Will Tesla longs remember that Tesla is a car company after a look at the oil price on Monday?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1SQ2J oil prices since the mid-80s in ~2020 dollars

Then they'd have to grapple with the reality that tech oligarchs like Elon are also making electricity prices skyrocket.

Don't they solely compete in the honda civic/corolla model space now?

home solar FTW. 30kWh collected off my roof yesterday, $12 worth.

The neo libs can’t seem to get it through their skulls that most people can barely afford groceries. Forget about home solar.  So good for you.

I could care less about votes. 165 people viewed my comment. 3 people voted. I'm not crying in my sleep over a net 1 downvote. (My previous comment is 393 views, 2 net upvotes... also don't care... but you seem to think it's important... ) H&S patterns are pretty typical fare in technical analysis and often show a trend change.. in this case from bull market to bear market on the stock... it just hasn't cracked yet. Steve Miller's cycle analysis has shown to be a fairly good indicator of the cycle of money within sectors and even stocks. Throw in the form of manipulation that I've been arguing is going on for months in this subreddit and how it'll impact the stock going forward, how the S&P index is shaping up (a big factor in a Tesla correction), and the history of Tesla's chart, and there's absolutely a big chance of a correction in the first half of 2026. You seem to presume the stock is only manipulated in one direction. You can go back through the historical chart and see that it makes HUGE sweeping moves both up and down. H&S patterns have hit targets many times in this chart's past. If people don't want to read my analysis, they can always either skip over it, block me, or push the little '-' symbol next to my posts to hide them.

I saw a purchase around a week ago on platform with option flow.