Tesla (TSLA) US sales estimated to have dropped 17% in January

But cybercab!!! /s

How are they selling that many still?

I guarantee it's mostly in Texas and maybe Florida. I'm in Texas and I see this stupid shit all over. I think MAGA still identifies with Elon Musk and I think some of new MAGA are technocrats that make good money.

Wasn't he selling Cybertrucks to his SpaceX Company?

How many did he sell to SpaceX, that we paid for?

That's fine! Tesla isn't a car company anymore. It's a moon base and orbital data centre conglomerate, and its share prices will be $20,000 by the end of the year! Edit: Grammar

Will soon be CyberSlab.

Can’t wait to buy my $30,000 butler robot and watch him fold my laundry while I’m sprawled on the couch drinking wine and eating grapes

he is. to get the rebait

What about their God's given right to burn oil in inefficient ICE for gigantic SUVs?

Great use of our tax money funding a foreign billionaire pedo-ass

Fraud. Don’t believe these numbers.

Probably up 5% on the news

More room to build robots, Bullish!!!

Tesla operates more like a cryptocurrency now than a stock so nothing matters.

Oh, no! Anyway...

Still quite a few dweebs buying them in the Bay area.

He's found God now, next stop televangelism.

Yep not as bad as thought so yes buy buy buy now!!

Can't lose can you?

In Colorado the people still buying new Teslas are Indian immigrants. The Tesla dealer at the local mall, literally only has them looking at the cars every time I walk by.

North Carolina feels similar.

Does nit matter! He has moved the grifting on to some human robots now. That should pump the stocks for couple of yeara before he comes up with yet another ridiculous idea.

I read that in Cathie Wood voice

To the moon, baby!

Stock up 24% on the news

The stock price simply doesn’t care. Sales in China have massively collapsed, sales in the USA are down 17%. Whatever. Soon Optimus and the Cybercab and space servers and the Cybertruck on Neptune are coming. Tesla is the most manipulated stock of all time. At some point, when Musk experiences his well-deserved downfall, there will be a reckoning.

I had a Model 3 and it was without a doubt the worst car I’ve ever owned and the poor level of support from Tesla was jaw dropping. I'll never buy one again. Luckily I sold it before the bottom fell out.

Yeah, that shit is stupid too unless you really need a big car for towing. I'll go for the non-Tesla EV options or hybrid vehicles. However, it'd be hilarious to have DHS/ICE buy cybertrucks then have limited range due to Texas's god awful charging infrastructure. If they did that, protesters would have a field day of knowing where ICE is due to limited options lol.

Cracks appear, the dam getting harder to patch

In January they sold: 2022: 40,165 2023: 53,875 2024: 53,830 2025: 48,500 2026: 40,100 \_\_\_\_ So they're back down to 2022 sales levels in the US, and down 25.5% from their January all time high in 2023. Note that it was in January 2023 when they got their Federal EV tax credit back, and then also benefited from, first, the delays of the Battery sourcing rules, and then a loophole in those rules, that enabled them to claim the full EV tax credit on vehicles assembled in the US with Chinese imported battery packs, produced by CATL. Given that the credit is now gone again in 2026, it shows that the tax credit consistently boosted their sales by about 25%. Without yet another reintroduction of the credit, their US sales may be constrained for quite some time. The credit also boosts (or holds up) their MSRPs / financing interest rates, enabling them to generate higher margins... so that should hurt their financials as well. Finally, AFAIK, the ZEV regulatory credits are now null and void, so that's a 100% profit revenue stream they've lost in the US. (I'm still curious how they managed to generate so much regulatory credit income in Q4, despite the rule change. I'm guessing they sold a lot more credits in other nations than they normally would to boost their financials) I have to admit, after the Nazi salute scandal, his support of fascism and white nationalism in the US and abroad, funding Donald Trump's campaign, injecting himself into the federal government and terminating investigations into him and his companies, DOGE indiscriminately firing government workers, DOGE indiscriminately shutting down agencies like USAID which may have caused all sorts of worldwide suffering and hurt the US' ability to lock up raw material contracts in foreign nations (ceding more power to China), and DOGE literally stealing US government data that includes data for US residents and employees... it is a bit confounding that US sales are still so high. Or is it? A lot of people either don't pay attention to politics and world events, or simply don't care and will prioritize materialism over everything else. They'll buy the car they want, overlooking that their money actually will be used to boost Musk's net worth and his push to attack our Democracy and Constitution. As to why the rescinding of the tax credit hasn't hurt Tesla's sales more... it's possible that because their largest markets are in wealthier areas, a lot of their customers are making over the previous tax credit cut off limit, and didn't actually qualify for the tax credit anyways. It's also possible that the new cheaper trims have increased Tesla's market in the US slightly; albeit it's kind of like shrinkflation. The cars still cost more than they used to after tax credit, but come with less. In Metro Detroit, I do see a LOT more refreshed Teslas than I would have expected... which is super strange given how dependent our state and our economy is on the Big 3 automakers; you'd think far fewer people would opt for vehicles that hurt domestic state sales, especially given all of Musk's other controversies. This may be because Tesla went on the offensive about a year ago and started setting up more showrooms around higher population higher income areas. And if I've learned anything about well off people (not all of them, but quite a few), they're often super entitled and narcissistic, materialistic, apathetic, and laud other rich people, and generally don't spend a whole lot of time on politics, or noticing the damage an administration may do so long as they're getting theirs. No doubt, many own Tesla shares and made plenty of money on those shares. I do imagine Tesla continuously renewing their FSD transfers has helped boost repeat customer sales. The cheaper (and I imagine lower margin) models may have helped a bit. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Still, this absolutely is NOT a good number. Combining this with sales around the world, and January is looking pretty terrible overall. Tesla's stock is priced like a super high growth company, but neither their sales nor their revenues are growing; they're either stagnating or shrinking. This entire company's valuation is based on vaporware that Tesla has yet to launch and realize any actual revenue from. Have we ever seen a company whose stock valuation and one of the highest market caps in the world's history, is so heavily based on products that have yet to be released or generate any revenue?

The Y is the best selling vehicle in California.

Optimus will be feeding you the grapes, while you lounge in your toga.

So what’s the total drop over all? I keep seeing reports of sales dropping, but still tons of them on the road.

Huh. I'm in Missouri. Years ago I had a 2nd/3rd generation Prius and got so tired of people making constant liberal jokes (especially when everything else I owned was a big gas guzzling V8 or diesel truck). So every time I see a refreshed Y I think, "Bold move Cotton," and look to see what the driver looks like. And yeah, it's almost always someone of Indian or Pakistani decent. I just assumed it was because my office is near a Hindu Temple and a Mosque and it was just selection bias.

Tesla sold \~110k in Q4, or less than 37k/month on average. And historically, Tesla has delivered fewer in Q1 than in Q4. And not only that, but Tesla notoriously delivers fewer vehicles in the first month of each quarter. So, press \[x\] for doubt on this 40.1k number being cited.

\*Mars

Crazy. However, I bet it's partially inflated due to the various rental companies buying them too and any other bulk schemes.

They typically sell fewer vehicles in January than in December, which is true here. They sold 48,300 in December, and 40,100 in January. Their January sales were comparable to October, and slightly more than November. Those months would have normally seen higher sales, except that in 2025 the entire fourth quarter was impacted by lower sales on account of demand pull forward into Q3 as a result of the tax credit ending. I listed in another comment all of their previous January sales. They're down 17.3% y/y, and 25% from their all time highs in 2023 and 2024; so this was a steep drop off versus previous years. But yes... AFAIK, [motorintelligence.org](http://motorintelligence.org) numbers are just estimates.

Not any more, it proved hard.

Lol it's way outperformed crypto and somehow the recent tech shakiness hasn't really touched it either

You see, they're going to be sending so many colonists to Mars by 2030, they will need a moon base to refuel!

They’ve got a long way to fall.

I mean in the sense that the stocks value is based on investor confidence in the value itself and not in confidence in the company.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if it weathers the storm of an AI bubble or bitcoin bust.

Stock still at $420 because funny number

The number of late model Teslas I see driving around Hillsboro/Beaverton region of Portland is depressingly high.

This is a great post. These are reasonable sales numbers for a company struggling but not for one with an almost 400 pe ratio

\*2025

Stock still at $420 because funny number

Wished it was Trump math dropping 117%

R2 smiles quietly to itself in the green room.

Interestingly, Rivian also released its quarterly yesterday, including the progress report on their model Y sized R2 about to go on sale, and they were up about 15% pre-market. Now at about 24% up at lunch time EST.

The DOW is at $50,000. We should be talking about that!

It pains me to not have bought TSLA before this "bad" news because we know the stock price will jump.

My understanding is he is exiting the car business, so buying one now is not just bad judgement (or supports racist etc), but the car will have no parts. Also I read insurance rates are very high as the car is not easily repaired. Overall a bad choice…. An ambulating symbol of racism, fascism, overpriced, hard to repair. For us here in Canada we will get fine BYD etc EVs soon, and redirect our car production to making EV with our Asian partners. We love our big American trucks, like F150 and Silverado which we make here…. So goodbye to American market share in Canada. 🇨🇦

He recently said the moon in 10 years and mars in 20 years. He didn't specifically say when those years start though.

It's a popular vehicle for 50-60 year old women living in Orange County

They have dropped price in Germany by 3000 euro i.e. approx 3500 dollars today to try to drum up sales. This is a country where the state will sudsidize by up to 6000 euro on top of this.  That is how desperate they are for sales.

"Rationalists" and Zizians.

"All corporations are bad, so why shouldn't I buy a swastikar?"

In case anyone's wondering about trading this and believes in technical trading. The chart seems to be forming a potential megaphone pattern, and may currently be right in the middle of a bull flag pattern confirming. I have a couple of potential megaphone resistance lines drawn, where presuming they hold, then price would top out around 425-427. 425 would match up with my original resistance line, but 427 is the bull flag target; and it still works as a potential megaphone resistance line. (Edit: 424, which it just bounced off of, is also a valid potential top resistance line.. guess we'll have to wait and see) If it does bounce off that line, and does head back to the bottom support line afterwards, which is highly speculative, that could put it down around 408-409. That doesn't mean the stock price will crash further. Some cyclical analysis I watch (Steven MIller) seems to suggest today is the bottom of the downward cycle, so it could spend a few weeks either rallying or consolidating during an upwards cycle, before another down leg. Further, I've argued time and again that Tesla's share price is inextricably tied to the S&P 500, and the real major correction if the entire S&P index corrects. Today, the S&P 500 is not yet in a major correction. It gapped down, but has been trending up all day. Possibly a bear trap. Possibly one more ATH. Or possibly just delaying the inevitable and it'll crash next week. Hard to say. What this topic really just points out is that if and when Tesla's share price crashes, it'll be well deserved. Their car business growth phase is over and is currently in decline with, as far as I can tell, no way to break the trend this year. Sure, they have other products for sale, but let's be honest, the vast majority of the share price is built on vaporware and a heavily manipulated stock that's playing into simple market dynamics; aka it's heavily overweighted in index funds, and with so many people investing into index funds, it's keeping Tesla's share price artificially inflated as those funds are forced to buy Tesla shares. That's not the only thing that moves share price, but it's a big one.

Elon doesn’t care. He’s got his $1 trillion comp package to work on humanoid robots. The EV portion of the company is just gonna wither away as they are discontinuing the model S and X whereas cybertruck sales have been abysmal and that model will probably be the next to die. Meanwhile, EV sales grew 30% worldwide in 2025. So, it’s not like the market is shrinking.

I like your confidence but optipus might just squeeze your balls and feed it to you:-)

just look at their subreddits "best car ever"

It's sadly still the number one selling model in California. We think of people there as blue, which they are. But a good chunk of the super wealthy there have shifted conservative, because that's what happens to too many of the ultra wealthy.

Tesla is a moon catapult company

Easily the best car you can buy. “How do people still listen to Michael Jackson” same thing.

Sales down 17% so today Tesla stock up +0.6%

This is understandable, with such a wacko leading the company. Who would buy these cars? They have the highest depreciation, and you have to wonder whether the company will even be in the auto business in a few years, with all the talk about robotics and AI. Will they provide continuing services for cars they’ve sold? Will they update software? Will they maintain their charging network? Seems like a big risk to buy one of these cars now.

I thought they were doing coal now?

Overall EV sales down a lot more. Tesla beating the market in the US. Also Tesla the only profitable EV company of 2025 outside of China. Not the terrible year it's being made out to be.

It’s so funny seeing people switch sides. Just a few years ago owning a Tesla was the cool, liberal, climate change conscious thing to do. Now it’s a swastikar?

That popped up in another post. You are correct; it is the number one selling *car* in California. A lot of people buy trucks and not cars, so given that Tesla only sell two models of car, they appear high in many lists around the world when looking at individual car models. But that also overlooks that the Model 3 sales are decreasing rapidly (people buy SUVs and not saloons) and even the refreshed Model Y is losing ground. The Cybertruck was a massive misstep given how popular pickups are. In places like Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere, companies like BYD have a big range of models from low cost subcompacts to range extended pickup trucks, and premium long range SUV & performance models. Tesla are saved by not having competition from these companies in the US

It hasn’t cared so far, but eventually this will catch up with them. I’m not brave enough to open a short position, but sooner or later the narrative will shift and they will get a new multiple assigned to them. I suspect well before 2027 unless they can show serious progress on robotaxis and robots.

And yet TSLA share holders can seemingly stay irrational long after the wheels fell off.

I think there was an article that the model Y is still the best selling car in California so it’s not just Texas

Let us cavort like the Greeks of old. You know the ones I mean.

This is all on Musk. He alienated his core buyers with his DOGE antics. I own a Tesla and before he started the crazy talk I planned on buying another one. Not now, not never. Everyone I know that owns a Tesla thinks the same.

Thanks, that's a great clarification. Cars are definitely not what they used to be. It's almost all trucks and SUV's now.

There are tons in lake country illinois. Any affluent area with housing stock that has a connected garage- it was a no brainer to lease an anodyne EV cul de sac crawler where the federal government foots 20% of the bill and the lease terms are favorable.

It’s not a good chunk shifted so much as 40% in the largest state is a TON of people. There are more republicans in Cali than anywhere but Florida and maybe Texas.

Too many Nazi cars still.

Yeah, it's a great point. We get so wrapped up in 'blue state' and 'red state' that we forget that there are still a LOT of the other side in plenty of those states.

This quarter will be an absolute crushing disaster, which means the stock will moon

Literally any other company in the entire world would be cratering, but this company can continue to not make money and still be valued at trillions. It will never make sense.

Bullish

Say what you will about Zizians, I have to imagine given how many of the are trans, Musk's transphobia has got to be a major factor in any of them buying one.

I have a 2919 M3. Looking to replace it in a year. Why would I commit to a Tesla when it looks like a Tesla isn’t committed to Tesla.

All and the stock goes up.

It’s hilarious how every quarter that’s shit it’s “not as bad as expected” and the stock continues to rise. So everyone is constantly in a state of thinking the financials are dogshit, while also continuing to buy stock especially when it’s found out to only be like border collie shit instead of St Bernard shit. It simultaneously fucking sucks while also having great future prospects…for the past 6+ years straight.

Sales remain high mostly do to lack of good competition. Once R2, BMW IX3 and Volvo EX60 come in it will go from bad to worse.

And don't forget that Jan 25 was down quite a bit........but hey.... even though 95% of their revenue is car related, they're DEFINITELY NOT. A car company.... .

Only 17% is more shocking. Look at Europe figures 😂 😂 😂

Don't worry Elon is worth like $850 billion dollars for no apparent reason, so worth it.

For sure. While Ford temporarily dropped out of the race for electric pickup trucks which will boost Tesla and the other pickup truck brands, it's only a matter of time before just about every major truck manufacturer is pumping out EREV pickup trucks, which I believe will be catastrophic to fully electric pickup truck sales. Not that Tesla's were very high to begin with... This will also impact GM, but GM is working on their own EREV trucks. Rivian could potentially get pulverized, but at least they're close to getting out their new line.. I think the only potential savior for electric pickup trucks ... at least full size pickup trucks... is solid state batteries that drastically improve capacities, charging speeds, and costs. Tesla has certainly put themselves in a precarious position by putting all of their vehicle eggs in one basket; model Y, which makes up the overwhelming majority of their global sales, making it extremely easy to target this one vehicle line. Every OEM will or has put out competitors, and they'll continue to iterate to make their vehicles better and cheaper, constantly chipping away at Tesla's previous market share dominance. At a certain point, if Tesla doesn't start offering new models to increase their volumes, I imagine most OEMs won't even care about Tesla's measly 1.6 million vehicle sales per year, of the 92 million new automobiles sold globally. The irony of it all is that ... Musk and investors just don't seem to care. It's like the entire vehicle division could collapse and they wouldn't care. Long time investors have so much faith in Musk's as of yet, undelivered vaporware, even though he's lied through his teeth repeatedly about its status and delivery dates... that they just refuse to sell and allow the share price to drop back down to reality. Obviously some of that is market dynamics too, with Tesla's massively overweighting in the index funds, versus their actual financials. Either way, without new vehicles, I can't see Tesla ever re-building market share. Not unless, say... there's a massive carbon tax implemented across the entire planet that results in a 100% rapid transition to EVs, which raises all boats in terms of EV production and sales. Chance of that happening any time soon? Slim to none.

You have a car from nine hundred years in the future, and you want to replace it?

We once gave SpaceX $5 million because Elon smoked weed.

> It's like the entire vehicle division could collapse and they wouldn't care yeah I've got one foot out the door with my 2023 Model Y. I've always wanted a 80s-style Blazer and the R2 is pretty close, so I'll be OK taking the L with the MY.

That sounds about right! The Musk empire as I understand it will consist of Optimus robots staffing orbiting satellite data centers generating “compute“ for A.I. tools that no one down on Earth actually wants to use. Oh, and the space data centers will somehow need to be re-outfitted with next-generation NVidia chips every three years. Sounds like a 400 P/E ratio is well deserved!

Outstanding. 👏🏽

Still seeing plenty of new Model Y refreshed on the road in Ca.

When i talk to my indian coworkers and bring up WW2 or Post WW2 order they have no idea what im talking about. So i guess this is a cultural/educational thing  *They were not educated in America for elementary school to undergrad

So the stock will increase what 20%?!?

Good job Elon. Way to bring a dude into office who puts the US on a stance to absolutely dominate 1970s technology. FFS. Burn baby burn. It's a tale of karma.

Of note YU7 from Xiaomi outsold Model Y in China in Jan.

And no drop in share price. Why?

My prediction is we will have to wait for the next US presidential election. I think there's a huge likelihood that post Epstein a platform of anti-billionaire / anti-coverup / anti-sweetheart deals will appeal to grassroots and the candidate will have a mandate to drain the swamp. Remember Elon has committed securities fraud, yet somehow the SEC let him off with a slapped wrist while he should have done jail time. He'd be squarely in the sites of such an administration.

[ Removed by Reddit ]

Have you been in a coma for the last few years?

So TSLA +14% on Monday

That’s still a lot of cars they are selling.

So u see at tsla 500?

>technocrats Got some of those in my neighborhood.  Weirdly, a chunk of their income is derived from previous military service, and now considered “retired”, even though they have spun their careers into contract roles for even more income.  These are people in their 30’s and 40’s.   I’m a bit “sour grapes” about it.  I didn’t consider military as an option post high school.  I did the college thing.  Now, just turning 50, I’m realizing that private employment my entire career is going to “retire me” way before I’m ready.  Time to be thinking about my own exit ramp.

Sales slipped sharply

> Fraud. Don’t believe these numbers. I really feel this is a big part, a clever way to count orders as deliveries, or completed vehciles as orders, selling Teslas to xAI, X, SpaceX, etc... I do not see nearly as many Teslas as I did say in 22/23.

This is a great post, and I was going to say, and now that these numbers have been released I expect to stock to go up again. The fact that the stock continues to stay strong, just blows my mind. Although I do believe some of the European funds are starting to dump the Tesla stocks now. So who knows, we may soon see the tumble.

OR….. now US carmakers are trying to work out arrangements with the Chinese. If they can sell here in the US Kiss all the legacy car makers good by.

Wagons are circling It's over. Once all these huge factories go negative it's OVER.

that's nothing.

Where do you get \~110K in Q4? Not from Tesla, because they don't release US-specific sales numbers. So all US sales numbers are estimates, and the most widely cited are from Cox/Kelley Blue Book. They estimated 138,000 Tesla sales in the US in Q4 2025. And in that case, 40,165 in January 2026 could be trending down from Q4, consistent with historical patterns. [https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Q4-2025-Kelley-Blue-Book-EV-Sales-Report.pdf](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Q4-2025-Kelley-Blue-Book-EV-Sales-Report.pdf)

Musk will be indicted by the next administration for his role in DOGE as well as his connections to Epstein. He will eventually quit as a disgraced CEO and the stock will collapse to $30.

From Troy Teslike

Brand equity and people who actually like tech heavy interiors. Other EV brands still haven't fully gained new car buyers trust yet

Not sure but maybe because they are all intertwined? SpaceX - Starlink - Tesla and X? What I don’t get is why Tesla has not but Starlink instead of cellular. 🤷‍♂️

The Model Y is up there as the number 1 or 2 selling car IN THE WORLD

Ford got smart and punted EVs

Was number 1 Then Elon did his thing and looks like it might be number 2, but (point of the post) it is decreasing. And Tesla is almost a single model company; Toyota & VAG sell more cars across lots of models. Compare Hilux sales to Cybertruck

I saw a weird stat this week. Total US Autoworkers at the "Big 3". 150,000. Total US Tesla Autoworkers. 70,000. It's still a giant.

This is a great post. I am a Californian through and through. The way Musk pissed off and on his core customers, especially in California, it will take years to overcome... specifically considering there are now way better options at comparable or better attractive numbers. If I were in the market for an EV, I'd seriously consider Lucid, Rivian, BMW, GM and Hyundai options.

> Tesla and the other pickup truck brands Tesla's sole pickup truck is the *Cybertruck*, are they even competing for anything but the pavement-princess prop-for-a-Kick-streamer segment?

Also, we can back into most markets by actual registration numbers. For example, we have sales data for (in Q4): \-China: 193,199 \-Europe: \~65k (accurate to within \~1k) \-Non-North American Markets: \~48k (you can find nearly all country data, save for Japan and maybe UAE, which have estimates) \-Tesla reported 418,227 globally for Q4, so just doing math, that leaves only \~112k for Canada and the USA. So Tesla absolutely did not sell anywhere close to 138k in the US in Q4. The Cox methodology must be really bad to be that far off.

There’s plenty of superior competition in the market. you sound like a Stan.

It will be their death when Chinese EVs come to US and it would take 5 years for Ford to retool and compete.

Don’t throw hate at Zizans. they have enough problems.

IMO, the Big 3 could have and should have built at least 2-3 affordable sedan or CUV models in the US. Instead, in a bid to save money, and maybe because they had already built out the factory capacity, they're producing most of their mass market EVs in Mexico. Now... don't get me wrong... I get why the big 3 (and others) moved their production to Mexico... given that the US essentially let all foreign OEMs flood the US with cars built in lower wage nations with less regulations... who could beat the US on quality AND cost on account that they were able to leach a bit off of US and European R&D and production learnings, and by using labor that was paid a fraction as much; further enabling them to hire more workers to do quality checks. It made sense to produce their low cost / low margin economy models in Mexico to compete with other foreign OEMs. That said, EVs are not low cost vehicles. Tesla and even some other foreign OEMs are producing more EVs in the US than the big 3. (even if one of those three is no longer a US company) Albeit, Tesla and those foreign OEMs' plants are generally operating without unionized workers, and with the exception of Fremont, in lower cost of living regions. Ford and GM are producing their more expensive EVs in the US, like pickup trucks, large SUVs, and higher end luxury vehicles, but their more 'mass market' EVs in Mexico. That's a huge turnoff to a lot of US buyers. Then again, at least in Ford's case, they're losing money on all of those cars, so I guess at least they're not only doing it to spike their profitability. Had they build some of those vehicles in the US though, I imagine it could have added just a bit more demand that they desperately needed.

Fingers crossed it will get worse.

The answer OBVIOUSLY is a bigger pay package for Elon to get us back on track!

About time, after people becoming trapped and burning alive and him not caring one bit, I don’t trust them. Also his reputation is headed for the sh$tter so he will have even less reason to care about that .02%. Also who can trust some that befriends evil pedophiles.

Well to some extend the PE mattered as after last earnings PE was shortly way above 400 I think even close to 440 and now back to 380 before earnings it was in the low 300s