FSD v14 has no competition. RoboTaxi has tons of competition Discussion

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I do not agree with your claim that Teslas FSD does not have any competition. Most car manufacturers offer advanced driver assistance systems.

Literally the same conversation since v10.

I think Waymo's 2-3 million miles a week and growing is more than experimental.

Competition is growing, but I can't name a product that has the same breadth (all city streets + highways) and quality as FSD.

Nobody is going to pay $100+ dollars a month for it, so it doesn’t really matter. Elon is trying to make his payday and it’s going to fail miserably

Tesla's formula is having incredibly low numbers of cars on the roads, but big service areas, to create the illusion they're further along than they are. Less miles means less chance of embarrassing accidents. And the thing people overestimate is what percentage of total costs the cost of the car is. With a vehicle running 24/7, using a, for example, $100,000 vehicle only costs 50¢ more per trip than a $30,000 vehicle. And the actual cost difference is going to be maybe $5-10k at most. That's a rounding error. Tesla's better at optics. Worse at technology and driving. The stats they put out are all suspect. Because their product is their stock value, not robotaxis.

Its funny that the people who say Tesla is without rival are the same people who choose to ignore everything else. The NVIDIA/ Mercedes system is coming out of the gates SAE3. Rivian's system is project SAE3 for next years models. Watch this demo. https://youtu.be/EzAVW1VgzcI?si=5oorKE2R7i4aSc2I

Elon chooses to pursue long time horizon moonshots so he can keep the grift up. Every target date he has ever made is either late, underwhelming, or a complete failure. Much of his success has been at the back of government subsidy with EV credits or space x contracts. Everything else he has done has failed. I guess Starlink is usable at least, although I don’t know anyone who uses it, other than van life people. FSD I hear is pretty good. I don’t trust it, and I think it will never work with only an optical camera. Twitter is a disaster. Only die hards like the Cybertruck. Grok is a propaganda machine. Boring company? Apt name. Robotaxis and Optimus are promises that going are in the same league as “you can make money off your Tesla by renting it out autonomously while you sleep.” Who is the market for humanoid robots? Most people can’t afford it, and wealthy people who can will just continue to hire people who can do the jobs better, faster. The car business - the main money maker - is in decline and hasn’t innovated in years. His only real option is to pump the stock with this bullshit and try to control the government that led to his prior success. Anyway, agree with you the driverless cars. They have a ceiling for all the companies, and the inevitable deaths at scale will erode trust. Humans will always prefer errors to be made by humans.

In my option FSD is a like a toy (given the lack of liability ownership by Tesla) compared with other level 3/4 autonomous driving system out there.

"The stats they put out are all suspect." I think this should be highlighted. Tesla is or has been sketchy about their battery fires, suspension arm failures, solar charging stations, build quality, battery swap, product development pipeline, FSD, range, warranty coverage, and insurance costs - all just off the top of my head. Stands to reason they will be sketchy about Robotaxi, which will tend to drive riders to other, more reliable and trustworthy, services.

IThere aren’t any vehicles that are able to drive from parking space to parking space without any interaction except Tesla currently (here in the states) So no, there isn’t any competition and I would say rivian and lucid are trying but they have a long road ahead to catch up.

Without rival now. I can’t currently purchase any of those other options. So as far as production vehicles go, Tesla is the only one I can physically buy in the states that can take me from parking space to parking space so the out intervention. I would love some competition but currently it doesn’t exist.

Waymo is amazing, when I'm in SF I use it almost exclusively, but they still only operate in a tiny fraction of easily traversable, relatively low speed city streets.

There is a very big difference between "The competitors do not offer the exact same features" and "there is no competition.

I would say highway adaptive cruise control with lane keeping does not qualify as competition to drive from your garage and handle every turn, light, stop sign, road obstruction, and then park itself when it arrives.

Ok, so your saying a new Tesla with HW4.5 then. You're saying your finish line is a vehicle that requires you to stay in L2 compliance because Tesla does not have the confidence in their system for you to take your eyes off the road. In a few months, the Mercedes version will be released for sale. At L3, eyes off the road, confidence. Base model at $51k wow. Oh look! The Rivians L2++ system drops late this year too. Wow!!! https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-01-06/business/industry/First-Nvidia-AIpowered-Mercedes-selfdriving-car-to-hit-roads-in-Q1/2493889 No wonder Musk is rushing this SpaceX IPO. Tesla boutta go through some things.

I’m looking at what they can do today. In a few months the others may or may not be able to do “eyes off” in a few select spots on a perfect day under the right conditions. If it was easy more manufacturers would be doing it. Now that the s and x are going away I would love to have an alternative to go to but at this time there simply isn’t and when they do they are going to be in the same spot of slow improvement, where Tesla was years ago.

Almost comparable to saying that being the first to send a human and the first satellite to orbit won the space race. Tesla had the advantage and lost it. They lied to us about DOJO. They lied to use about the cars learning from the drivers. They lied to us about HW2, then HW3, now HW4 is out. They were sold as FSD ready. Now you know those packages will never be L3+. Either grow up and except that or dont. Just dont argue when your car is yielding to a Mercedes or Rivian in the near future with a sleeping driver.

If it does I’ll buy one. I’ll be happy to purchase the tech that’s best for me. Problem is you are currently buying a promise, and the new rivians currently do not have the hardware even if you order today, the new chipset does not arrive until later this year. Just like hw2 and 3 were promised, that is the promises other manufacturers are making now, and just like Tesla, there is no guarantee they will be able to do it. Who is to say a year down the line, they need additional hardware to make it work as they promised. So far rivian was the only one who was honest saying that the hardware that can do what they are saying isn’t in the vehicles yet and if that’s what you want you’ll have to wait to order, so you’re extrapolating that they are going to have the best system out of the gate with hardware that isn’t even validated yet. You are putting a lot of faith in promises, and when other manufacturers do introduce it, it’s not going to beat Tesla day one, that will take time, and if Tesla keeps improving at their current rate, whether you like it or not, they will still be leading. It’ll be nice to have to competition to force them to make advancements so if I would like a FSD like experience I have options in the vehicle I choose and not be tied to one carmaker, but as it stands, for better or worse, Tesla is the leader here today.

I think we need to back up and ask: "What exactly is this ***market*** TSLA claims it will dominate?" The existing taxi/rideshare market? That's certainly not worth over a trillion dollars. The the "market" it must dominate is a completely imagined future market, in which people quit buying cars and just use rideshare, where practically all miles taken are robotaxi. IMHO, that just flat out will not happen. Look in your own car - is there anything personalized in it? A particular phone charger you like, a pack of gum, a kiddie car seat, a stroller, some kids' toys, a special mat for Fido...the list is endless. In our day to day lives we are "pack rats" who enjoy keeping "stuff" in our cars. I just can't imagine a brand new market developing for our day to day driving...especially for a taxi service. The cheapest fare I've seen thrown around is $2, but let's use $1 per mile. The average driver goes 7k miles a year...that goes a hell of a long way towards a car payment/insurance/maint. I just don't see a ton of people making the switch.

> "Im Looking at what they can do today." You do realize that what they can do today is better than what Tesla is trying to do with RoboTaxi in Houston today dont you? The geofencing you were told would never be needed for vision only is happening in Houston. Think about this. In all the months they have been in Houston and the months prior they have been mapping the streets and geofensing the cars. Setting specific traffic rules for specific streets in a very limited area of Houston. Just Houston and it still is not working consistently without intervention.

Guy youre still buying just a tip of the promise made with HW2 "FSD" literally a decade ago. If Tesla keeps moving in what direction? Tesla is a company in decline. The Share price only lasts as long as they can continue to cover shifts at the plants. * Cybertruck failed * Model S dead * Model X dead * Total global sales are now below a company that cant even sell in the US. Im sorry but a company hoping that everyone will want the same few color version of the 3 or Y is laughable. Now we know, and Tesla has admitted L3 will require geofencing. While you watch Rivian and Mercedes and probably even Chinese models with drivers sleeping or playing video games (even if in certain locations) youre still wishing you could at least look at your cell phone in your deep boredom staring out the windshield of self reflection.

I’m not sure I understand. What car can I buy in the states that is not a Tesla that can do and intervention free drive from point a to b, handling everything including construction flaggers and road closures? How can something do it better if they don’t do it at all? For the sake of argument say there is an intervention for any reason in a Tesla, in which a person would re-engage and continue. It still has the ability to drive from place to place with no or minimal intervention. What other car can I buy that I can get in and press a button and take me to my destination (intervention or not) what vehicle can I buy are you saying can do this better since none of them can do it at all?

The direction is that no matter your personal feelings, consumer FSD supervised has been improving with each iteration. No one can predict the future, which is why saying Mercedes will do this or Rivian and Lucid will do that, makes no sense, they are in same promise stage Tesla was years ago. There’s no guarantee they will end up in a different position with no delays or hardware changes needed as they get the data from the fleet. Right now they have exactly 0 consumer fleet miles of data to understand what they need to achieve their promises on their yet to be validated hardware.

Stop with the gaslighting yourself. Sure, if you want to buy a ride today that Tesla has already admitted will never be L3. A car that limits you to staring straight ahead in personal deep thought while letting the car drive, have fun. Or you can wait a few months and buy an actual luxury class car with nice interior that actually allows you to look around, play with your cell, or even sleep if you like. Tesla doesnt have "an intervention free drive from a to b". Lmao. If they did you wouldnt need to look at the road 100% of the time. If they did they would take that restriction away. It may be better than it used to be but its still quite regular.

How are you determining that in a few months these other manufacturers will be able to do this when they don’t have a vehicle that is even close today? Hopes and dreams? I have 4 different teslas and the two newest have driven me from space to space intervention free without having to “look straight” I think you might need to get some experience behind the wheel before you make generalizations that are completely untrue. Nowhere has Tesla stated HW4 was unable to achieve L3, will they, who knows? They are in the same boat with L3 that the others are in with just getting a FSD competitor out to customers, just promises, nothing more. I have personally owned and driven other luxury brands and they just can’t do what Tesla can do today. Period. This is a silly conversation to have since you clearly haven’t driven any of these vehicles to get first hand experience and are regurgitating others thoughts and speculations on the subject.

What are you talking about? They already have it. Its already L3. They are using LIDAR. You can already buy it. They dont have it wide open to everyone, anywhere because they are a company with integrity to their customer's safety. They are a company that chooses to slow roll development processes when lives can be in danger. They are now opening up those restrictions because they now have better confidence in their systems. They did it the right way and will now pass Tesla in that same race. They kept restrictions to keep things like this from happening. https://www.npr.org/2025/08/02/nx-s1-5490930/tesla-autopilot-crash-jury-240-million-florida

* Same conversation had about HW2. * Same conversation had about HW3. * Same conversations had with v10, 11, 12, 13 and now 14. Now we're going back to DOJO baby!!

Until Tesla provides strong evidence to the contrary I will not accept that they have done more than zero truly meaningful unsupervised miles. Their first reported ones had chaser cars, then they stopped offering any. Only after failing dozens of times in a row to get a ride without a human in the car did a highly publicized influencer manage to get two. Even if those rides didn't involve chaser cars, which I don't think has been confirmed, they almost certainly at least involved active and dedicated remote monitors (not the passive fleet monitors like Waymo) and were likely subject to very planned and controlled conditions. If they had an actually reliable level 4 solution there's no reason they wouldn't be deploying it to all of their Austin rides. Cybercab will probably end up the same. A few units without human controls will be deployed for highly conditioned stunts, with the promise that mass production will be right around the corner only to get delayed repeatedly as they keep saying they need just a bit more and more driving miles to train out those last edge cases. IF Tesla actually had qualifiable level 4 autonomy then I agree they still wouldn't be able to scale faster than Waymo and wouldn't maintain a meaningful price advantage for long, especially as Google has deeper assets to fight a price war even if their costs are higher for a while. But they don't have level 4 autonomy and there's no real way of knowing when they will, if ever. Meaning they can't just scale no faster than Waymo; right now they can't scale *at all*. As for FSD most other automakers haven't been interested in providing end to end supervised navigation not because they can't but because it's not worth it. Whatever benefit there is to reducing driver fatigue is already mostly provided by the more limited ADAS they do provide (ie adaptive cruise control and lane following, highway stuff). End to end supervised navigation costs a lot more to implement, raises power consumption and is much more of a pain in the ass to properly validate. It's not worth what most people are willing to pay for it, which for many would be nothing at all.

> I have 4 different teslas and the two newest have driven me from space to space intervention free without having to “look straight” That is not the flex that you think it is. When you are not "looking straight" and observing traffic onditions in the exact same way that you would be in a non-ai car, then you are endangering the lives of everyone in your vicinity, you bloody clown!

The main problem with the FSD/s model, and why only Tesla bothers with it, is that it is inherently unsafe. There’s been lots of work in human factors showing that humans are really, really bad at taking over a supervised autonomous system.

So how much did they pay you to shill for Tesla, Grok.

"FSD supervised" is an oxymoron. It's either supervised or its full. It cannot be both.

It's worse than a toy. By calling it "\*full\* self-driving" they are misleading people into a false sense of security and encouraging reckless behaviors.

Any FSD that doesn't have lidar is like having without a seat belt and air bag.

>Tesla seems to be doing a very good job at following the formula for a safe rollout of driverless ops. No they aren't. They'll never ever get there.