Original Terathread returns! Does it self-delete the old one this time? Who knows?
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1qnc09m/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jan_26/
6 year Elonversar*ies*: *"Tesla will soon have over a million connected vehicles worldwide with sensors & compute needed for full self-driving, which is orders of magnitude more than everyone else combined."* *"Dojo, our training supercomputer, will be able to process vast amounts of video training data & efficiently run hyperspace arrays with a vast number of parameters, plenty of memory & ultra-high bandwidth between cores. More on this later."* I actually have no idea if the last one turned out to be bullshit. I'm just amused by his attempt to use technojargon to impress. And, of couse, Dojo is dead...an "evolutionary dead end" per Technoking.
Breaking news Tesla is ran by a pedo.
Will this drop below $400 today?
There's some headlines this morning that's its official - starting Jan 1, 2027, China will ban concealed door handles. Specifically, both interior and exterior handles must have a "mechanical" emergency opening function. And no retractable handles. I strongly suspect Tesla will only make this change at its China factory, and this contributed to the outright cancelling of Models S and X.
I doubt it. Will probably linger near that magic $420.
Additional confirmation today from Bloomberg that Musk is pushing for a xAI and SpaceX tie up: https://archive.is/eDk2e Likely why the stock is down since a SpaceX and Tesla merger now looks less probable.
I’m shocked that short tempered man, surrounded by yes man, who thinks he is god’s gift to humanity, has no respect for others, doesn’t follow laws and is obsessed with impregnating as many women as possible is in Epstein files. I’m really shocked.
Yes
No
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Slips as European Sales Plunge **88**%
Elon should just sell the California-based Tesla to Tim Apple at this point. Replacing the Fremont S/Y lines with robot assembly was pure smoke up everyone's asses from the EC. Spin off the FSD stuff for robotaxi and preserve current TSLA bagholders position in that.
Thats not very good is it, I keep saying it Tesla will soon have a 12 month period where they will sell less than 1m cars. And SpaceX will het a rude awakening once the Democrats get in again. He has alienated so many people, with one thing after another.
Has he got any business that makes a profit?
Elon Musk, who has visited Epstein's island a few times as per the recently released DOJ files (there's even a calendar invite titled "ELON MUSK TO ISLAND DEC 6TH" - that was December 2014, when Epstein was famous among the elite for being a high-end pimp and a pedophile), has also been credibly accused of sexual assault by several former employees in the past.
But think of all those guys running phone farms that he has impressed with his wit and wisdom of weird nazi crap!
That's only in Norway, the January drop in 5 reporting countries is "just" 44% https://electrek.co/2026/02/02/tesla-tsla-cant-find-bottom-europe-2026-brutal-decline/
he's probably bought a pony farm for his habit
Okay Pedo Guy - this is concerning
It just goes to show he was never a business genius - just exploited government mandated programs. A real business genius would have built a company with far more actual profit
*ELON MUSK'S SPACEX CONFIRMS MERGER WITH XAI IN COMPANY MEMO *SPACEX, XAI VALUED AT $1.25 TRILLION: COMPANY MEMO so not Tesla, I think.
Gotta love Elon’s business model. SolarCity runs out of money, so Tesla buys it. Then X runs out of money so xAI buys it. Then xAI runs out of money so SpaceX buys it. SpaceX is not yet out of money so no need for Tesla to buy it for now. Maybe later.
Advancing their mission of making humanity multiplanetary by undressing minors on nazis website?
To boldly csam where no one has csamed before.
Makes me wonder if that means Tesla is in worse shape than the others if he is doing this because he is running out of cash?
It's more likely to be a SpaceX / Tesla merger when it happens, because Tesla will run out of money before SpaceX.
And Tesla throws $2 billion into the xAI furnace, just for fun.
So much for the rumors of a $1.5 trillion SpaceX only IPO. A mere $1.25 valuation on the combined companies?...VC idiots may just be wising up. Oh well, "Space Data Centers" must be irresistsable to some.
"Hey Grok, how much revenue did Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX each collect for AI related services?" * **Tesla**: Low hundreds of millions from FSD (AI services). * **xAI**: Around $500 million standalone from Grok/API/subscriptions. * **SpaceX**: Effectively $0 from AI services in 2025. Sounds like we should be talking about a $5 trillion merger!!!
This is horrible for SpaceX. With starlink it was his only company that seemed to be going in right direction. Xai just recently took on a lot of high interest loans. It will drag spacex down.
I'm not sure about that now. Tesla Has 40b in the bank. SpaceX is now on hook for all the loans and huge costs of running xai.
I missed this pump a few days ago: *"In a* [*filing*](https://fccprod.servicenowservices.com/icfs?id=ibfs_application_summary&number=SAT-LOA-20260108-00016) *with the FCC late Jan. 30, SpaceX proposed an orbital data center constellation of up to one million satellites in low Earth orbit."* Chuckle, if you think SpaceX will actually have 1 million orbiting data centers, I've got a bridge and an FSD subscription to sell you. *“Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization — one that can harness the sun’s full power — while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s multiplanetary future among the stars,”* SpaceX added. "The filing did not include a deployment schedule or cost estimate." - Well, that tracks. Just some napkin math - LEO satellites last 5 years, so the launch cadence to keep 1 million balls juggling at once would be 550 satellites deployed every day (weather dependent of course). Presently, that's 18 launches per day.
that is also destroying 550 satellites each day. Shall we keep all this stuff just on earth where: - cooling is a lot easier to do with convection instead of only radiation - visiting to repair malfunctions is stupidly simple - it is a lot easier to recycle old parts - we don't have to destroy 550 tons of high tech material each day? (a starlink satellite weighs 800 kg)
>we don't have to destroy 550 tons of high tech material each day No worries. Amazing Abundance is imminent.
Well there goes Mars lol
So long xAi, we hardly knew ye. Suppose that’s what happens when cash furnaces run out of greater fools willing to throw more money at it. And the list of original investors still need to be made whole.
He's going to ruin Starlink now chasing more AI datacenter bullshit.
There it is. Sci-fi brained moron is actually explicitly pushing for Dyson Spheres now.
Kind of amazing that old pulp sci fi did such a number on this idiots brain.
What a disaster for Spacex. I yearn for the day we get a look at those finances.
Finally, I kept wondering when their master plan would include a Dyson swarm... It's the perfect grift
We all know why he did that. Just so he stays in the news cycle as an amazing inventor and juice up valuation of his companies. Giving it any consideration is just bringing legitimacy, as if it’s a normal conversations about technical details. It’s not. We could as well discuss ideas of how to build nuclear power plants coming from a meth addict.
One day all of Mysk's companies will be under one company all fueled by circular financing.
The SpaceX + xAI merged company will be loss-making. SpaceX was narrowly profitable, and xAI is burning $10B per year.
Their goal is 0 revenue, to become a pure play.
So what are the chances that the “buy-the-dip-Stans” move their love fest over to SpaceX and prop up the SpaceX stock instead of Tesler once it goes IPO? Memes only last so long…
If AI needs to go in space to “seriously scale”, then it’s not scalable.
SpaceX would consume so much silver that assuming all other silver consumption does not increase, world silver reserves would be depleted in 13-14 years.
According to reuters spacex is profitable >SpaceX generated about $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue last year, two people familiar with the company's results said [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-about-8-billion-profit-last-year-ahead-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-30/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-about-8-billion-profit-last-year-ahead-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-30/) Basically enough to fund xAi
They’ll then merge TSLA with X, then split off porn app, purchase neuralink, merge with trump social, spin off X, setup SPAC to fund boring tunnel to Greenland, etc, etc. There’s many many grifts left here.
Calling bullshit. Making more than 50% profit is nonsense. Why all the capital raises if so profitable?
Do you think before end of 2026, Tesla, X, xAI and SpaceX will be merged into one single company?
and putting it all up in LEO is great if you want to atomize it into the atmosphere. Abundance!
I'm pretty skeptical of the whole space based data center concept in general but "scaling up a Starlink v3 constellation" has to be the worst way to do it. You get all the weight and heat overheads of dealing with < 50% power availability and yet none of the latency benefit you'd normally get over solar synchronous orbits because of the compute distribution. Elon is pitching this high latency idea as suitable for training which is just a horribly inefficient CAPEX utilization.
According to EchoStar SpaceX spent $19.6 billion in 2025 just acquiring S-Band spectrum licenses from them. I don't see how that possibly squares with this report absent some funny accounting.
In case anyone has been fooled by fanboi videos out the back of robotaxis claiming "look no chase cars", bear in mind that, given the destination is known, and especially between junctions, there is no need for a chase car to remain behind at all. Indeed going in front makes a change of the lights separation less likely.
I've been thinking about long term puts, and am still confused as to what my right to sell a stock that has ceased to exist is worth, if it all becomes SpaceX or some new entity.
Paris prosecutors raid France offices of Elon Musk's X https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3ex92557jo
Doesn't seem credible. Let me guess: The Reuters sources are Elon and Kimbal Musk.
It would also be guranteed kessler syndrome.
Wanna bet that even majority of that revenue is cross dealing like SpaceX buying Grok subscriptions etc.
Standard grift. Business history is full of similar examples. The complexity of scams tends to increase over time. More moving parts, more things to keep track of etc.
I'm imagining Musk, having bought governments all over the world, setting up squads of goons dressed like ICE agents, smashing down doors of stately homes to raid the cutlery drawers, piling into schools to clear out the trophy cabinets...
Well they say they do. Tesla books have always raised eyebrowns. For example they don't seem to collect interest on their supposed cash hoard.
Musk Xitter vomit about how France is full of anti free speech fascists incoming in 3, 2, 1...
Even with a copious amount of hopium a server in space is 10X the cost. Probably closer to 100X. The datacentre in space idea is dumber than Vision Only, Optimus, Neuralink and Boring combined. No wonder the baggies latch on to it.
I'm pretty sure licenses like that are awarded for a multi-year period, like 10 or 20 years. The costs will be amortized over the duration of the license.
In one of legal documents in Elon vs OpenAI, OpenAI alluded they hired some xai people that left because they didn't want to cook the books. Xai did loose general councel and CFO in quick succession so who knows.
good luck recycling the materials after it reenters the atmosphere, too . . . "abundance" . . . sure, Jan
hmmm, ORBITAL CSAM AI ON THE MOON vs. running a $1/mile taxi service in Poughkeepsie . . . I wonder where Elon's heart is here.
unless someone wealthy is losing money - Musk won't be touched. We get to pay for this mess with our retirement accounts. Though I've done the work to de-musk mine. It honestly wasn't that hard. I kind of don't want to be too deep into the S&P for a while anyway.
Am I missing something here? Musk took Xitter prouvate to "Save Free Speech"...then wrapped it together with xAI, now plans to merge xAI with SpaceX, and most likely will do an IPO?
12 year Elonversary today. Some of his OG schtick that made so many people swoon over the future he would deliver: *"Our goal is to prov*ide **free long-distance travel** throughout the country, **forever**, and *we’re putting solar panels over the supercharger stations. So the basic idea is to* ***travel for free forever on pure sunlight.****"* \- Griftimus Maximus, Feb 3, 2014 Current rates average $0.25...when he said this, only the Model S existed, so looking at its real world efficiency, the best I see is 3.6 miles/kWh - so $193 from NYC to LA. Not bad, but only "free" in a South African slang type of way...and at today's gas prices, the same trip would cost $30 less in a Prius. I do have to say its kind of nostalgic to look at old cons that at least had some basis in physical possibility. Now we just get sci-fi fever dreams. Whatever show he's putting on has jumped the shark.
I'll point out that the Robotaxi event a few years ago had no drivers and no chase cars. Its risky, but Tesla can move their "safety monitor" to a cubicle with a computer monitor. If you scroll down in this article on the "Robotaxi War Room", you'll see an Elongelical named Owen Sparks proudly posing for a photo next to all the equipment - which clearly includes steering wheels. [https://electrek.co/2025/06/23/tesla-tsla-surge-investors-betting-its-robotaxi-catch-up-waymo-6-year-lead/](https://electrek.co/2025/06/23/tesla-tsla-surge-investors-betting-its-robotaxi-catch-up-waymo-6-year-lead/)
Anyone else remember when Tesla went to the effort of re-incorporating in a different state and launched a 6 months long marketing campaign to get Musk a new pay package, so he wouldn;t get bored and turn his big brain gaze of first principles excellence away from TSLA? So he's starting out the year by merging two of his companies and teasing an oversized IPO, peddling Space Data Centers? Will Branch Elonians never learn?
Yeah. You were thinking that Free Speech was limited to humans. The free speech he was looking to defend was for spam/hate bots to say whatever brain rot Elton his spewing that day
The idea of chucking this much precious terrestrial metal into space for nothing more than LLM slop is incredibly frustrating.
Let’s rally today because Elon knows best.
[removed]
Have you....looked at the bitcoin market lately?
>Musk was reportedly summoned by French authorities to answer questions regarding an investigation into an alleged cybercrime involving the company's Grok AI tool. >Authorities have stated that they are now looking into possible complicity in the possession and organized distribution of child abuse images, image rights violations through sexualized deepfakes, and the denial of crimes against humanity. https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/198044/elon-musk-dramatically-summoned-paris
Yes. . . But Tesla has taught me to not judge an invetment by their track record. Some investments have real value, others are just a pyramid scheme built on hype.
My guess is that they’re booking Starlink launches as revenue to reach that figure.
Bitcoin is a purely speculative instrument. There are no fundamentals, no real-world value. It's essentially just casino gambling.
"For sure. Giga Berlin will build sustainable energy vehicles using sustainable energy, so net environmental impact will be extremely positive!" Jan 25, 2020 Hmm, wonder how that's going?
It greatly exceeded its goals. If by environment you mean Leon's wallet (which is what he meant).
Apparently the $8B figure is not actual profit because it doesn't take costs into account. SpaceX profit is closer to $2B.
Kind of missing a few things, but they don't help Musk's 'free speech' claims at all. Pretty much right off the hop with the Twitter acquisition Musk was selling it was a quick flip to investors. Musk was going to go in there, streamline the company and introduce new features that would make it more profitable because he understood the product better as a user than the people designing it, etc. Of course that didn't happen as Musk immediately started doing mass firings with zero research, chasing away advertisers and talking about throwing away years of work actually writing the software for the site with a full rewrite. Predictably that pretty much killed the idea of a quick flip. So Musk pivoted into his 'everything app' pitch. Twitter would no longer be a straightforward short form posting and messaging app. It would instead become a one stop shop for anything anyone could possibly want from the internet. Payments, shopping, entertainment, etc. Of course this would be an insane amount of work and Musk had fired many of the developers and supporting staff to actually have any shot at making it happen. So that went nowhere as well, just a bit more slowly. Musk struggled to find some way to even recoup what he overpaid for Twitter. Not too surprisingly a shadow CEO, multiple lawsuits alleging political discrimination and a bizarre value destroying name change didn't help bring advertisers back or create new revenue streams. Musk naturally started exploring less traditional ways to extract some kind of value from Twitter. Okay so Musk had made it intractable to actually improve Twitter significantly by firing all it's developers and turned it in a money furnace by making the site radioactive to advertisers to degree that would make even TEPCO blush. But there was still somehow a big base of users and data that had to be worth something. So Musk, ever the self dealer, decided to start using Twitter's data to feed his budding new and equally benevolent AI company xAI with data that would be used to create a 'truth-seeking' AI capable of solving theoretical and boundary problems in mathematics and science. Thus began the process of tying his 'screw the libs' company X together with his 'screw Sam Altman' company xAI. Twitter's devolution would continue into an outright right wing echo chamber and misinformation hub and Musk would continue to use his ties to his new BFF, Donald Trump, to attempt to bully advertisers back into using his site. Ever the fuck up, Musk would manage to also sabotage that relationship and also make himself person non-gratis in the White House at large through his DOGE idiocy, cringe aura and winning combination of arrogance, incompetence and disloyalty. That would eventually perciptate the current progression of mergers Musk has folded his personal battle projects into the one remaining jewel on his crown, SpaceX. Pretty much the only time it was 'about saving free speech' was when he was talking about taking it over in the first place. As soon as he realized he overpaid and legally obligated himself to buy the company with no way out it became about trying to make money and failing to do.
I get that but it should still be included in cost accounting for 2025.
The entire $19.6 billion isn't going to hit P/L for 2025, only a fraction of it will, maybe a billion or two (depending on duration of licenses and how they decide to amortize them). So they can still easily report $8 billion in profit for 2025 on revenue that's less than what they spent on licenses. Similar to if they had spent that money on building a new launch facility. Now it's an entirely separate matter if that reported $8 billion profit is realistic or not, but the amount they spent on licenses last year really doesn't tell us much with regard to that.
It would sooner make sense to build them in Antarctica or the bottom of the ocean than space. So naturally space is the pump.
Regardless of the numbers, it would be insane to use their profit to fund the pointless money incinerator instead of themselves. Great way to kill Spacex.
the mf is seriously talking about putting servers in space and bloomberg (alongside all news stories on the subject that I've seen so far) doesn't point out that it is batshit crazy
9 year Elonversary tomorrow: *"Really don't want to get in politics. I just want to help invent and develop technologies that improve lives."*
I can get behind crazy. Data centers in space is just fucking stupid.
he was about preserving his ability to say what he wanted on the platform. he knew Twitter Safety was going put his account in Twitter Jail if he kept on about all his 4chan shit, and that was intolerable to him.
his precious CSAM will be safe up in heliocentric orbit
Now he spends more time in politics and social media than any of his companies.
Sad thing is that I actually do think it was true long time ago (probably more than 9). He was always a sleeze businessman, who cared mostly about enriching himself, but he was also passionate about technology. My personal opinion is that subsidies for green energy was started his ultimate corruption - he quickly discovered how he can funnel public money to his businesses and got into politics to keep the spice flowing.
Oh i think in his tiny drug addled brain that is one part of the scheme. “It’s in space so it’s legal”
It's kind of everything he's done business wise. He just hasn't been allowed to fail and always attracts a ton of favor for whatever reason. Zip2 he got mapping software for free, VCs realized the value of it and kept him from self sabotaging his own startup. Paypal he was just in the way and even after screwing up that up somewhat was bailed out by Thiel taking over and people not allowing him to destroy the company. SpaceX he benefited heavily from Republicans gutting NASA and a subsequent push to private the launch industry. Tesla was green subsidies and a proper lack of prosecution from the left when he did commit crimes (Trump of course would never bother). Combine that with his messiah complex and generally inability to realize how incredibly fortunate he's been and you've got someone who thinks they know best about damn near anything, including how society should be governed. In his mind, pretty much the only thing Elon Musk doesn't know how to do is say the words "I don't know".
Journalists today seem to lack common sense and healthy skeptiscm. Oh well. It is their own burial. The whole profession is going the way of the dodo.
I don't think SpaceX's popularity/mirage of success has much to do with defunding of NASA. Even though politicians occassionally beat the defunding drum, until very recently, NASA funding has been stable for a long time. Now for the manned stuff, NASA made a *decision* to cancel the Space Shuttle program - because it was dangerous and not yielding great results...and it cost a ton of money. But it wasn't cancelled due to any funding "gutting". IMHO, its a common misconception that prior to SpaceX, the bulk of launch services were provided by NASA. They are often called the "first" private launch company. But that's just not the case. Several other private or semi-privatized companies were in the launch services business by the time SpaceX made its first launch attempt. Just as an example, General Dynamics launched *hundreds* of satellites before SpaceX existed, dating back to the early 90s. So where does SpaceX fit in? I think its a tale of being the world's largest "loss leader". They came in and undercut everyone on price...and make regular capital raises you can set your watch by, even though the actual business is not scaling at all. And we all just pretend that it must be a viable business model. Anyway, IMHO from day 1 its just been a long game to price others out while raising money on hype about Mars colonies.
He did one about Spain.
Looks like Tezzlur might have eeked out 8k sales in the EU in January
Most of the relevant defunding happened back in 1990s. Really before NASA got hit there was a general wind down in funding for the DoD and Reagan's "Star Wars" program that impacted projects the DC-X. With NASA it was later in the 1990s during the GOP's budget battles with Clinton that NASA took a big hit to a lot of its budget and was refocused on primarily supporting the ISS program. Everyone knew the Shuttle had issues back then too and there was a whole program aimed at contracting a replacement for it. That was canned very early in the 2000s when congress decided NASA had spent too much money on it without enough demonstrable results and that the shuttle was sufficient for the current ISS focused operations of NASA. Shortly after that decision in 2003 we had the Columbia Disaster which caused a 180 by congress on the shuttle program and hastened plans for its retirement with no alternative in place. That event was briefly followed by the constellation program which was short lived and aimed and eventually astronauts back to the moon. Constellation's end marked a direct policy push under the Obama administration to privatize NASA's launch operations, of which SpaceX was an early and sizable beneficiary. I get what you're saying about SpaceX not creating the private launch market, but I'm specifically talking about policy changes that directly impacted the development of next generation launch systems and specifically moved funding towards contracting out NASA's own launch operations. Both Blue Origin and SpaceX benefited heavily from the cancellation of next generation launch systems in the late 1990s and early 2000s from a talent perspective as most of their initial teams were composed of aerospace engineers who literally worked on those projects and were either let go or quit out of frustration. While the private launch market existed is was rather small and in a pretty significant lull after the initial .com era proposals for satellite internet constellations fell apart. In general the launch market has traditionally been heavily dominated by national or supranational interests and government spending. That's changed a bit with Starlink, but even then I think there's just a lot of indirection since a fair amount of funding the users comes from defense spending in Ukraine and Musk's pushes to get public funding for the program through rural broadband initiatives. All that said both NASA and incumbent launch providers have fumbled the ball pretty hard too. It's not that SpaceX was the only one who stood to gain from it or that aerospace and defense companies couldn't have privately spend money on launch system R&D, they just weren't incentivized to post Columbia disaster since congress had equated reusable systems with the Shuttle's complex and risky design. I do think what you mentioned about SpaceX just being a massive loss leader has played heavily into it as well and frankly it was the exact same way with Tesla. Large mature companies can't just start losing tons of money on moonshot projects and that's hamstringed both BEV development and launch system development. But I do also believe that one of the things Falcon 9 in particular did really well was just scoping and compromises. It went for the low hanging fruit with reusability and completely ignored the difficulties associated with reentry from orbit. SSTO systems were designed to be cleaner and simpler shuttle replacements and a big part of the problem is that doing so would be difficult to achieve and inefficient from a payload perspective, as well as completely unsuited for heavy launches aimed at getting things to the moon. As a result one of the issues with the VentureStar program specifically is that it became kind of a general technology development program which contributed to it get getting canned (particularly the composite fuel tank development). That said we've seen that the HLS program apparently isn't being subject to the same kind of scrutiny, which really does demonstrate a lot of the mind share capture at NASA by SpaceX I think. Using Starship to ferry people to the moon is by all means a convoluted and risky setup aimed more at funding SpaceX to develop in orbit refueling capabilities than the same kind of properly scoped system we saw with other proposals. Anyways a lot of what happened in congress and NASA really paved the way for SpaceX to secure a lot of contracts and early funding it would eventually leverage into more contracts for DoD launches. At the end of the day the private launch market was just never large enough prior to that to support the development of new heavy launch platforms and that's another reason incumbent launch providers didn't really pursue them. Hell a big part of why Starlink exists in the first place was simply to give a plausible reason for investors to pour a ton of money into SpaceX to actually justify the development of Starship at all.
Elon always tells on himself. If he says stuff like he's not interested in politics or he's confident about getting to Mars or he doesn't fuck kids, the opposite is always true.
With the recent drop in bitcoin prices, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is now officially slightly underwater on their bitcoin. A sharp turn around from 4 months ago when they had 10s of billions of dollars in unrealized gains. Bitcoin is still up over 500% from when they first started buying but they made a lot of purchases near tops that have raised their cost average. Saylor is also the person who convinced Elon to have Tesla buy bitcoin.
$400?
Turns out putting all of your eggs into one basket is not a great "Strategy" who knew.
I love the pump and dump on this stock My May $330 is now even money but TSLA had to shed $200B of market cap to get there. Buyers have forgotten this stock is a 15:1 split since 2020
Infinite money glitch !! … and it’s gone…
Infinite money glitches are usually just fraud ... case and point, fElon Musk!
Great question: https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3me2l3er7ok23 Who could it be?
TSLA was near 200 last March. Has a long way to go.
Lovely to see Elon Musk again admitting to just be an idiot. https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2018955721636041149 agreeing with someone saying: > It breaks my heart to say but in order to save this country we are probably going to have to do things that make women sad :(
The family of 20 year old Samuel Tremblett has sued TSLA. Samuel burned to death last October in a Model Y after a one vehicle accident. He was on 911, stating he was unable to get out of the car...you know, becuase its so easy to find the alternative exit handles and only a fudster would say otherwise....oh yeah, and they hardly ever catch fire. From the 911 call: “I can’t get out, please help me.” “It’s on fire. Help please,” “I am going to die.” His remains were found in the back seat - I assume he was trying all the doors in a panic. Did he know about the mechanical handle, and just panic? Or was he completely ignorant it existed? Who knows. It should be obvious that there can only be one handle to open the door - we can't have a situation where people need a safety briefing before getting inside a car.
Elon Musk must be super disappointed that xAI and SpaceX merge news did not boost TSLA stock price even he hinted eventually everything Elon owns will be in a big company.
Interesting [post](https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2019212107020136611) from Elon. He writes “Whoever said “money can’t buy happiness” really knew what they were talking about 😔” So Elon is acknowledging he’s not a happy guy? I never really saw him as an especially happy person. He comes across as someone with a huge ego, maybe even narcissisticly so. But people like that have egos that are fragile deep down, which is not the same as happiness. It can create a mask to creates the illusion of happiness and confidence but it’s not real.
Just a timely reminder that TSLA's outsized valuation teeters on the whim, semi-sobriety, and survival of a possibly depressed drug abuser. All is fine, I'm sure.
his firing the entire supercharger team because the division head wouldn't do his bullshit 10% headcount cut was extra-special
We also have trump’s entire DOJ distributing child porn, so FElon isn’t alone.
aww the poor wittle shit-for-brains billionaire
there is exactly zero reason his little bullshit Westworld robot project needs to be in Tesla at this point, other than to make one of those stupid operational milestones he had the board give him.
What a timely realization, just days after orchestrating self buyout to keep the wealth going up.
Elon is probably on the bipolar spectrum and doesn't seem to be well medicated given his aversion to mental health treatment. He has long been described as having severe mood swings and has a long history of making dramatic and impulsive decisions only to immediately walk them back. Those suffering from BPD can be kind and quite lovely people but they need to take their condition seriously and know when to practice disengagement and coping skills. It also helps to not be a raging egomaniac who refuses to listen to anyone.
I have a genius plan for Tesla in europe. Just close down Giga Brandenburg and buy the old VW Dresden show factory. In that factory you could visit with your school class and build some stuff on the car as a kind of live museum. Tesla fans would love to pay money to assemble the cars by themself. Output of that factory was like 5k vehicles per year, so should be just enough to supply europe with Model Y. Instead of paying production workers, Tesla fans would pay to build their cars.
Oh dear Elmo.
Is Elmo underwater now with his $1bn stock purchase last year?
Our data centre at work is a full day for a visit (5 hours round trip). I can’t imagine the mileage claim for needing to quite literally travel to space to change a faulty cable or SFP.
I lied. I don't think they got to 8k.
I think that’s in the $372 range
Yes I hate Elon and Tesla to the point I remember they without looking it up. Put option loss memory is strong
I can see it dropping to $350 sharpish.
yeah he literally wrecked my position with that bullshit. Had to add one last May OTM put when it was at $480 FFS, +$150 over my initial buy point!
This is why I recommend just shorting the damn shares if you're going to short. Why get fancy? Just borrow some money and short. Its not like TSLA is a hard to short stock. Options are for leverage and speculating on (implied) volatility.
Sub-$400 out the gate
Remember when the fanbois told us legacy automakers were dead because Tesla was going to take over the market? Oops.
Timber…
As the stock goes down I wonder if we’ll see less of Dan Ives’ high schooler fashion.
I don't think you do what Musk does or seek that level of wealth without either being a profoundly empty person inside or having some kind of insane appetite for wealth that is literally impossible to satisfy. Mentally healthy people would have retired to chase their passion projects ages ago. Musk can't, his entire self value is attached to his net worth and his messiah complex means he always has to be constantly meddling in everything even if he has nothing to offer and no idea what he's talking about. His nightmare isn't failing to accomplish his lofty goals, it's being irrelevant or just acknowledged as the most important person in human history.
Six year Elonversary. On this day, Musk reposted a slide from one of his Mars presentations, with the caption: "Music in zero gravity" I don't want to link to his site, but the slide is featured here: [https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starship-elon-musk-envisions-musical-performances-in-zero-gravity](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starship-elon-musk-envisions-musical-performances-in-zero-gravity) A woman in flowing robes is floating in a spacious glass lined atrium in some imaginary space capsule, playing a violin to entertain the Mars pioneers on their journey to the totally not made up Mars colony. IMHO, its a perfect representation of the absurdity of Musk.
10 year Elonversary: *“I have been thinking about the vertical takeoff and landing electric jet a bit more. I think I have something that might close,”*
49% Fantasy 49% Pump 2% Science
Will we get a red Friday?
Project 2025 came into town and knee-balled electrification this decade. Mary led, and screwed GM thereby
Options are for FUN
I was looking at the manual switches in my car during lunch and if you don’t know they’re there you’ll never find them by accident. That’s by design, since the window is sealed to the car when the door is closed
>2% Science...Fiction?
Wild ass prediction: These last two days of drops is because Technoking is quietly dumping and delaying on reporting it.
How it started: *"We anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see.*" - TechnoGrifter, Oct 19, 2022, speaking directly to shareholders How its going: *"I think Cathy Wood said it best, like really, we should be thought of as an AI or robotics company."*\- Griftomatic, April 23, 2024 I'm amazed these Charlie Browns keep coming back for more.
Nobody posts all day on social media about how much they hate various minority groups unless they're paid or are a miserable fuck. Musk being the latter of the two.
There's gotta be a correlation with bitcoin crashing
That is a wild one. I think in general we're just seeing a lot of risk melt out of the market which is always bad for Tesla because the company is valued completely on fantastic future promises. We're seeing a lot of selling on big tech names, hotter semiconductor stocks, speculative nuclear data center plays like OKLO, and obviously Bitcoin too. I mean in all honesty it was kind of surprising it was only down like 2% today, especially since the SpaceX merger is confirmed to be happening with xAI and the hyped IPO. If we really do get a big 2022 style sell off that's also tremendously bad news for that IPO. Not saying that's what's happening, we've been overdue for a real correction for a while now and Trump is clearly worried about any kind of downturn before midterms too so who knows what's in the cards.
Whole market is red. I think some people know data that is not public yet.
Long term puts will be golden in 2026.
Roth Capital's Craig Irwin used to have an $85 price target. He flipped from permabear to permabull right when I flipped from bull-curious to "fuck elon", December 2024. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-bear-into-bull-craig-irwin-roth-mkm/ Last week: Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin has a different view. After the Q4 2025 earnings release on Jan. 29, Irwin reiterated a “Buy” rating and maintained a $505 price target on TSLA stock, saying he "would be a buyer on any near-term share price weakness." Irwin always struck me as a total idiot, LOL.
Some people are saying that Tesla, which closed below $400 at around $397, is looking cheap. And it’s true, it now only has a P/E ratio of 369.
Tesla has loads of Btc, more than they are saying.
Yes. They are both hype.
It’s been many years since I’ve looked at this kind of stuff. But financial reports usually say “cash or cash equivalents” don’t they? I know they’ve said they have like $1B bitcoin at some point. And dozens of $B in cash. It does make you wonder if they are fudging that.
Just a quick fun comparison. From about the third week of December in both 2024 and 2025, through February 6th, TSLA's chart has been moving in almost a mirror of what happened last year. If that mirroring were to continue, which I'll add a strong disclaimer that it very may well not continue, it would potentially represent as much as another 47% decline in stock price through mid-March to match what happened last year. That made me curious about how the PE ratios between the start and end of of 2025 match up with the start of 2026 through where we are today, because when stocks are incredibly overvalued as suggested by the PE ratios, as they were at the end of both 2024 and 2025, it could potentially suggest how large of a pullback to expect. So for funsies, I've compared last year's PE ratios to this year's. At the start of 2025 vs the start of 2026: * Forward PE: 132 vs 230 * Trailing PE: 198 vs 416 As of the end of Q1 2025 vs Today: * Forward PE: 99 (25% decline) vs 201 (12.6% decline) * Trailing PE: 148 (25% decline) vs 367 (11.8% decline) First off, geezus H have the forward PEs increased this year! That's because Tesla's quarterly earnings having declined significantly year over year, even as the stock price went up to nearly the same ATH. It went to a new ATH on lower earnings. Of course, I've been arguing for awhile now that these high PEs are because Tesla's vehicle and battery businesses are only worth around 5%-10% of the company's market cap, and most of the value is built on vaporware, constant pumping, and stock manipulation through simple market dynamics. In Q1 2025, the PE ratio dropped 25%, while Tesla's share price dropped 35%. It actually fell 56% from the December 2024 ATH through mid-March 2025, but it bounced in the second half of March. Thus far in Q1 2026, the PE ratio both forward and trailing has dropped about 12%, about a third of the way through the first quarter, so it still has a long way to go to match what happened in 2025. If the share price continues mirroring 2025... which is in no way a guarantee... then by the end of Q1 2026, the price could be down around 290, with a mid-March bottom of closer to 215. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Again, thus far it's been a close mirror, but the market conditions and the company's news have changed quite a bit. Compared to last year, around this time Trump was starting his big tariff push. This year, the tariffs have waned, but now there's concern over rising layoffs and the overall economy. There's been some movement on robotaxis this year versus last, with the trial only starting mid-way through last year, so progress on that front has been filling the news. Also, we just had the SpaceX / xAI merger, with rumors that Tesla would get involved. Personally I think the rumors were just a temporary stock pump so that some big time investors could exit their positions without cratering the stock... but we'll see. Anyways, keep your eyes open. If this mirror continues, then this up day may be nothing more than a temporary reprieve from a much bigger and faster drop. As always, do your own research, don't put yourself at too much risk if you're shorting, and protect your trades with stops in the event that the mirror shatters and the stock goes in the complete opposite direction of last year.
I'd say much of last year's Spring drop was Musk's DOGE antics.
It's very funny watching Musk follow his classic playbook "admit nothing, deny everything, make counter claims" for the Epstein files dump. So far the files document him going to the island twice, getting dinner with Epstein in NYC, and hosting Epstein with 3 "girls" (two of them Russian) at SpaceX once. And that's just what's documented in emails. Epstein was also a provider of "girls" to Elon's brother Kimball.
Burning Man kicked Kimball off their Board of Directors, but Tesla has not. Let that sink in.
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In late 2024, TSLA nearly doubled in value in two months, from just after Trump won the election, to the end of December. Frankly, the entire move was completely unjustified. Nothing in Tesla's financials or guidance changed. The entire basis of the move seemed to be the belief that Musk would benefit from corruption / crony capitalism from buying himself into the administration. Tesla rose along side the S&P 500. However, similary between 2025 and 2026, Tesla was well into its December/January dive, down about 18%, as the S&P 500 made a new ATH; so they were diverging. The S&P topped around February 20th and then crashed. Tesla, meanwhile, between Feb 6th and Feb 12th, spiked downwards, then had a sizeable relief rally between the 12th and the 20th, only to collapse 41% as the S&P 500 collapsed 21%. The S&P 500 bottomed on 4/7, but Tesla actually bottomed closer to around 3/10, had a large dead cat bounce, and then double bottomed on 4/7 in conjunction with the S&P 500 bottoming. It isn't just Tesla mirroring last year, it's the S&P 500 as well. I don't think TSLA's crash from February 20th can happen unless the S&P 500 has a similar correction. If the mirror breaks, then it'll most likely be after Feb 20th when it happens.
Even on pedo island I bet they couldn't stand him.
It's crazy Musk and this whole admin just lie so brazenly and easily disputable.
Full slate of 7 year Elonversaries tomorrow, so I'm getting an early start: *"I think we could probably do a* ***coast-to-coast drive in three months****, six months at the outside."* \- DOGE Deceiver, Feb 7, 2018 - speaking directly to shareholders. *"If you take the hard path of a sophisticated neural net that's capable of advanced image recognition, then I think you achieve the goal maximum. And you combine that with increasingly* ***sophisticated radar*** *and if you're going to pick* ***active proton generator****, doing so in 400 nanometer to 700 nanometer wavelength is pretty silly, since you're getting that passively."* \- Bombastic Bullshitter, Feb 7, 2018 *There's also as I mentioned prior things that we expect operate at kind of a* ***shared autonomy fleet*** *where Tesla's kind of like a combination of Uber or Lyft and Airbnb, I guess, like where you can opt to have your car enter a shared fleet or not, and then Tesla can also operate its own fleet in places where there's not enough people sharing their vehicles. So that's a pretty significant opportunity."* \- Technoking, Feb 7, 2018
Didn't he testify that he takes ketamine for major depressive disorder?
Analysts: TSLA's valuation is extremely forward looking and we don't expect them to start making significant new market revenue until 2030 Same analysts: TSLA should increase immensely based on the highly anti-EV, anti-renewables and anti-trade policies of an administration guaranteed to be out in 2029
lol, I completely forgot that people were claiming Tesla would uniquely benefit from the loss of tax credits. Didn't Musk himself say something like that? Wake me up when it finally benefits Tesla, y'all.
the flip side of losing the tax credits for legacy was also losing the CAFE increases and having to pay Tesla money every quarter for not making enough BEVs. The Dems wanted to not only kill ICE but also V8s before that, but V6 & V8 power got a 2nd lease on life this decade thanks to the GOP. I love my AWD Model Y but I understand why people like vroom vroom too
More of today's 7 year Elonversaries: *"Yes, I think probably the biggest item is as we get the software right, people upgrading to full self-driving capability of some S and X, and* ***anything with Hardware 2****, which is the eight cameras and more advanced ultrasonics and improved compute capability, I think* ***will be capable of the full self-driving****. The full self-driving, the Hardware 2 type is also capable of doing easy swap out of the computer, so if it turns out we need additional computing capability to meet the regulatory standards for self-driving, particularly if it's – like we think with the current computer hardware we can get to better than human, but the standard for regulators may be that you need to be five times better than human or something like that. But we believe that is* ***solvable purely with computer hardware****. And it would be a relatively* ***minor expense*** *to do that. So I think probably that's the biggest opportunity."* \- Griftimus, Feb 7, 2018 *"So if you take four years, I think,* ***100,000 units (Tesla Semi) a year is a reasonable expectation****...Maybe more, but that’s roughly the right number, I think."* \- Semi Schyster, Feb 7, 2018...speaking directly to shareholders. *"I think we might be able to* ***exceed the specs*** *that we unveiled last year too, which is pretty exciting...Another speculation that we might not meet them, but I think we’re going to exceed them.”* \- Long Haul Liar, Feb 7, 2018...speaking directly to shareholders.
2026 - 2018 = 8 :)
We can't all be once in a generation prodigies.
Correcting math is actually way more profound than it sounds.
I’m pretty sure this means that you know more about correcting math than any person currently alive on Earth
8 year Elonversaries: ***"I went through this math*** *I think on a prior earnings call, but like it sounds like some of the fastest car factories produce a car maybe every 25 seconds. That sounds fast. But if you think of a 5-meter long car, including gap, and a 4.5 meter car with a half meter gap or something, that's only 0.2 meters per second. Like grandma with a walker can exceed the speed of the fastest production line we're in, so really no that fast. Walking speed is one meter per second, so five times faster than the fastest production line on earth...Why shouldn't it at least be jogging speed? I mean in the limit, companies should start caring about the* ***aero drag in the factory,*** *which that's maybe around* ***20 miles or 30 miles an hour****, or call it 30 kilometers an hour, 40 kilometers an hour. It's like, stuff should be moving at that speed."* \- Edison of Our Time, Feb 7, 2018 *"\[Autopilot is\] going to kind of be like \[the progression of DeepMind's AlphaGo\] for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that's a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver's good. It'll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a* ***coast-to-coast drive in three months****, six months at the outside."* Coast to Coast Con Man, Feb 7, 2018
Chuckle, look at thye latest Elonversries - Elon did the math!
I can do math from a parking lot in LA to a parking lot in New York, no carry-the-1 errors at any point in the journey.
Looks like they adjusted algorithm on X. All of sudden I see no tweets abotut elon being in the files and the feed is flooded with people saying how he is the best person ever.
I guess feeding his ego is a "first principle."
It's always been funny to me how he touts and focuses on meaningless little metrics like this. He had this weird fascination about factory floor space density and literally building upwards for certain things to keep floor space productive as if he's running a retail store or something. Same with Dojo super focused on thermal and power density as if it were the end all be all metric of performance in a supercomputer, which is extra funny given his pivot to the whole 'space datacenter' thing which greatly compromises latency and system density in all of the proposals I've seen at least. That's pretty much Musk in general though, he'll take some huge multidimensional problem and try to condense it in to some random one dimensional metric to portray it as easily solved to his fan base and investors.
SpaceX has officially “shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon” rather than colonizing Mars per Musk’s latest tweet on the matter. RIP SpaceX Mars colonization fantasy, 2005-2026, you fucking wrecked the space community discourse and almost nuked our BLEO HSF capability.
I view it as one of his core competencies. He glosses over the hard stuff and gets his fans lathered up about some meaningless side metric like cupholders in the semi.
A year ago the Moon was a distraction. https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/01/elon-musk-were-going-straight-to-mars-the-moon-is-a-distraction/ Weird.
By "self-growing city on the Moon" I assume he means a habitat that supports a growing population entirely with resources gathered in-situ. While it could be technically plausible on Mars (with tremendous technological advances) it's literally unachievable on the Moon where there aren't even sources of vital elements needed for human survival. Not that it's any surprise but Elon really did not think this statement through. I'd say it's absurd that a company's valuation could be driven by CEO statements showing a complete lack of understanding of the absolute basics of the field but that's long been the case with Elon's companies.
i.e. SpaceX received a sternly worded letter from NASA regarding HLS progress with an overview of where Blue Origin stands.
Something *has* happened internally but I don’t know what.
I fully support it, if by self growing city on the moon we mean Leon’s dick.
I'm sure this will be pared back too. Soon the 'moonbase' will be built as an in restaurant playground at the Tesla diner and used to justify the SpaceX-Tesla as the next big merger of the century.
It's definitely a big part of what he does in Tesla's earnings calls. Basically running out the clock by spending a ton of time blathering on about meaningless bullshit to a receptive analyst or on internet questions so there's never any time to discuss real concerns or pointed technical questions.
Cash furnace needs more fuel. My suspicion is that the IPO has been met with lukewarm interest and the xAI move was an attempt to drum up demand with AI hype. Add in politicians who are probably spooked by revelations of Chinese investment in SpaceX, and you have a man in desperate need of a big distraction.
And then scaled back to just a drawing of a moonbase
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