Prediction: Tesla will not break total car sales by model starting from Q1 2026

He's shut off the path to FSD be removing all sensors and digging in about "not necessary" He's closed production on some unprofitable models but not the most unprofitable albatross No significant refreshes or plans to juice sales of the 3 and Y I can't believe how strong the stock is on 2 years of declining sales. You have to be a moron to think robot is anything

I assume the cybertruck be included with semi and roadster in "other".

What’s nuts is the “research firms” increasing price targets. Nothing reported yesterday shows a strong business with a clear path to becoming super profitable enough to justify their valuation.

I think there were some pro forma statements about beating expectation EPS. Yeah what a shell game.

"to hide fact that the cybertruck is a total flop" We know....

The Model 3 and Y are still selling great. I don't think they will go that far

There's no reason to slice out the Cybertruck now. It was a little over 1% of sales and that was with Elon using SpaceX to dump thousands of them.

It’s almost as though the only research that concerns them is studying how to separate more rubes from their money.

Musk already built in the cyber truck being cancelled. He's claiming it will "transition to a fully autonomous vehicle"

Except there is no semi nor roadster sales.

"Mid-sized sedan or smaller", "compact SUV or larger". /s

Exactly!

Those research firms are in the same building as the investment firms that are trying to find someone to hold the bags on this one.

The price targets long ago switched to psychology over any numbers or math.

You got to read peter Lynch to understand why... The hedge funds are tasked with making money for their clients... How it doesn't matter.. just results. So while their competitors are churning money riding this felon...no one is brave enough to bet their money on a value stock that is going no where and saying don't invest in Tesla. Then the client will take money elsewhere. So their interest is in rising the wave as much as they can and exiting before the inevitable

Incorrect. Model S/X production doesn't end until Q2 2026. By then, they'll start producing cybercabs, which they'll throw into the "other" car models line. It's my understanding that there's a law limiting how many cars an OEM can produce each year without driving controls (steering wheels, pedals, etc..) Here's the Google AI description of that law: >Yes, there is currently a limit in the United States on how many specialized, non-compliant driverless cars a company can produce per year under existing exemptions. >As of 2025–2026, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) restricts manufacturers to exempting up to **2,500** autonomous vehicles (AVs) annually that do not meet standard Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), such as those lacking steering wheels, pedals, or rearview mirrors.  >Here are the key details regarding this limitation: >**- The 2,500 Vehicle Cap:** This limit applies to vehicles that do not comply with traditional safety standards because they are fully designed for autonomous, driverless operation (Level 4/5). >**- Failed Legislative Increases:** While industry leaders have pushed for higher limits, attempts to increase this cap to as many as 100,000 vehicles per year have consistently failed in Congress. >**- Exemption Process:** To exceed standard safety compliance, manufacturers must petition NHTSA for exemptions under Section 30113, proving that their vehicles provide an equivalent safety level to conventional cars. >**- Proposed Regulatory Changes:** The incoming administration in 2025 has indicated a desire to "dismantle government bureaucracy" and ease these regulations to allow for higher-volume, nationwide deployment of autonomous vehicles, particularly for companies like Tesla. >**- "Supervised" vs. "Unsupervised":** The 2,500-vehicle cap specifically impacts vehicles that are fully driverless. Systems like Tesla’s "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) still require a human driver, which means they do not fall under this specific exemption cap, though they are under intense regulatory scrutiny.  >For companies using traditional vehicle platforms and adding sensors (like Waymo), the limit is less restrictive than for companies producing entirely new, custom-built driverless vehicles (like Cruise or potential Cybercabs). I'm not sure how Tesla is planning to get around this rule. Buying of a POTUS probably has something to do with it.

Other will just be the cybertruck and the optimus xai boight with Tesla money.

You would be stupid to bet against Tesla, none of it makes any sense.

Semi was released or did they stop production?

And if Ford only reported "total car sales" without breaking it out by model... Yeah, that's meaningful. Meaning deception.

It was "released" but it still seems impossible to get one. Sales figures are close to inexistant.

“Released”. There’s only a few on the road. They plan to put it into volume production in March, but we all know those plans fall through

I'm not really in the market for one but they had to have sold those ones to someone.

The market cap at this stage is basically just vibes rather than any coupling to the fundamentals or even potential fundamentals. However the market can remain irrational for a very long time. The valuation is at such level that any correction downwards let alone fundamentals would be absolutely huge in terms of impact on the Nasdaq.

Wait… something I completely forgot about: where are the Cybercab and Robovan? lol did the investors also forget what Musk promised them not too long ago?

But…but…but…robuts

Model Y and 3 both just underwent massive refreshes within the past 48 months. Tf are you talking about lmao

That's called "conflict of interest"

Please describe these “massive changes” pretty sure it’s all cosmetic and still has the same range

I am quite surprised that Cybertruck is such a flop. Would have assumed that one of the major plans of funding Trump so much was to make sure that the military/ICE/whatever governmental agency buys tons of cybertrucks.

how about the flying rocket roadster? :)

How , everyone investing in Tesla has been making money for the last 10 years . So how are they 'separating more rubes from their money ' ?

When pressed about it on the earnings call they did double down and say that Cybertruck is still the best selling EV truck... Thats what they are clinging on to right now!

Really? TSLA closed today a quarter percent higher than it did over 4 years ago.

Because it’s a company with no future. That stock is tanking at some point. It would have long ago if not for meme stock status. Nothing in its financials or plan has any justification for being worth even 1/10th of its currently value.

Let us for a second acknowledge that not all cars put out by a manufacturer are a success and just sweep CT under that category. We can say - well, at least the other four cars have had a pretty good to great run (helped greatly by the rebates). Still - the big problem remains. I no longer buy the cliched argument that “Tesla is a software company making cars and power walls” for two reasons. First is that they might be good at making EV but still can barely manage to make a good “car”. Heck you were the one who said that way better on my LEAF post. And second - Their so-called-software business is tied strictly to their cars up until this point. That is how it exists in the first place. It’s just that they focused on software first approach on their cars. First it powered the consumer cars, then maybe robotaxis, and then maybe a robot. Sure. But today? They are a car company on all levels. Their energy business generates very low revenue. And a car company with (soon) just two car models (and nothing else) with a stock upwards of $400 a piece? That just shows what the stakeholders are like! And then to your point - the sensors / radar removal. That still puzzles me. Having used FSD from 2018 to 3 months ago, I will tell you that the FSD is a wonderful piece of work by some very smart and capable engineers. The addition of radar / lidar and physical sensors could have taken that several levels up. I just do not understand the stubbornness in accepting that without these things, you’re intentionally crippling what otherwise could have been a much better version.

I suspose technically that's true, since Ford announced the cancellation of the F150 Lightning. But the Lightning was outselling the Cybertruck last year so it's a bit of a stretch.

Cars are the old scam. It’s all about the desperate merger now.

SEC reporting rules might require breaking out revenues by model. This would be the case if there are significant quarterly fluctuations, where there’s a need to inform investors about key drivers of performance.

Oh Jesus... Just because the stock "looks good" doesn't mean it has long term viability.

Like the touted 4680 battery with a measly 280 mile range?

They're doing it slowly, then all at once.

That’s the one.

Good thing Elon is pivoting Tesla into the lucrative consumer robot market, that ought to turn things around /s

> Model Y and 3 both just underwent massive refreshes within the past 48 months. They were minor refreshes, at best. The average consumer wouldn't be able to tell which was the newer model by looking at them.

> I'm not really in the market for one but they had to have sold those ones to someone. The quantity "ordered" by big players has been whittled down significantly as the price has continued to rise and Tesla failed to deliver.

They haven't done a full breakdown in years.

They got a quarter of a billion dollars of interest free loans out of the pre-orders. Why build it?

They sort of sold a tiny batch to Frito Lay but they are pre-production, maintained by Tesla and are under NDA about discussing them.

It’s an interesting chart. Anyone who bought 6 years ago or earlier made a killing, but 5 years ago until now the gains are minimal.

Yes, I was thinking the same. It would be too embarrassing for them. I predict that they will discontinue the CT over the next 2 years or so, maybe even later this year. It makes no sense to operate a giant car manufacturing site at just 5-10% of the planned output. Unless Musk is prepared to lose billions more on the CT project because his ego blocks him from admitting that it’s a colossal failure.

Having made some cosmetic changes within the span of 4 years isn’t the flex you think it is.

Doe anyone remember Enron?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron%3A_The_Smartest_Guys_in_the_Room Just a movie. There will be a TV show about Tesla, prob several seasons too.

Many of those were sold to SpaceX. I recall foreign governments buying them up as well. US government is considering them for the military. Probably for target practice since they are very impractical.

You only made money when you got back more than you put in.  As Tesla did not pay dividends the maney anyone made came from other investors.

Enron was engaging in way more criminal behavior with their off-balance sheet SPVs. Tesla is a regular company with sales being the main metric and you can't really cheat on that