TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jan 26

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1qh07k5/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jan_19/

4 year Elonversary to start off the week: *"****We*** *will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, what not to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi,* ***Roadster****,* ***Optimus****, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully* ***next year***" - TechnoLiar, Jan 26, 2022 Lets pause for a moment to really savor this lie. Musk knows exactly what it takes to "engineer" and "tool" for car production, so he surely knew with great certainty that TSLA was most certainly NOT doing that when it came to the Roadster. But IMHO the more dangerous and toxic part is: so did his sycophants at TSLA. The senior leadership and BOD stay mum while he riffs about fake stuff...and Branch Elonians mortgage their parents' houses to gather more chairs. Moving on to more uncorrected pufferies from the same earnings call: *"And I think* ***we*** *are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we’ll achieve* ***Full Self-Driving this year****, yes, with data safety level significantly greater than present."* \- Canadian Conniver, Jan 26, 2022, speaking directly to shareholders Anyone else notice the royal we? He's bring others into his lie, and they play mute. Finally: *"I would be shocked if* ***we*** *do not* ***achieve full self-driving*** *safer than human* ***this year.*** *I would be shocked."* \- Self-Swindling Technoking, Jan 26, 2022, speaking directly to shareholders I'm reluctantly wanting to see his shocked face.

One more special 10 year Elonversary today: *"In terms of the* ***first flight to Mars****, we're hoping to do that in around* ***2025****"* \- Star Gazing Swindler, Jan 26, 2016 Shocked response by interviewer: *"Oh my goodness, that’s just around the corner"* Confident Griftply: *"Well, nine years, seems like a long time to me.”* Then when Musk says he'll be on the flight, it becomes apparent that this random CNN technology reporter knows more about this topic than Technoking: "When Stout asked whether Musk had gone through zero-G training, he replied that he’s experienced weightlessness on parabolic flights." *“But you must be reading up and doing the physical testing to get ready for the ultimate flight of your life,”* Stout said. *“Ummm, I don’t think it’s that hard, honestly,” Musk said. “Just float around … it’s not that hard to float around.”* Anyway, next Data Collecting opportunity is supposed to be in late March. The 10 year anniversary gift is appropriately tin, for the Tin Turkey.

Let's start off the week right, shall we? Through 23 days of registrations here is how the daily reporting countries stack up to the last two Januarys: \-Norway: 71 in 2026 / 327 in 2025 / 547 in 2024 \-Netherlands: 117 in 2026 / 396 in 2025 / 924 in 2024 \-Spain: 239 in 2026 / 150 in 2025 / 602 in 2024 (hmmm, + over 2025, but still way down from 2024) \-Sweden: 228 in 2026 / 204 in 2025 / 406 in 2024 (hmmm, + over 2025, but still way down from 2024) \-Denmark: 264 in 2026 / 323 in 2025 / 568 in 2024 \-UK: 434 in 2026 / 865 in 2025 / 559 in 2024

[removed]

I don't know why, but Reddit flagged this post - I assume Reddit won't allow links to BI.

Exponential ~~growth~~

Denmark sales will be interesting to watch

Ok, thanks.

Elonversary posts really are the best

Do the Denmark sales include Greenland? If so, maybe break out those separately.

There's like 60k people in all of Greenland. And most people live in hamlets on the rocky coast. Annual car sales for the entire territory are probably less than 5k.

The Elongelical who keeps trying to get an "unsupervised" robotaxi ride is at last count on failed attempt no. 37. More importantly, he reported that TSLA Robotaxi in Austin went offline for around 8 hours on Saturday because: winter.

Tesla does not sell cars in Greenland.

“Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over-the-air update. That’s all it takes” Quote from a genius that maybe more than 1 year old.

He waited 2.5 hours on his 38th attempt (lol). As of \~9 hours ago, he said service was still down (and had been for the last 30 hours). Austin got \~0.1 inches of ice and a dusting of snow.

Per Fred, Tesla lost another senior manager: Benjamin Bate, Tesla’s Director of Vehicle Operations and Engineering at Fremont has left the chat.

I've got a mental image of him standing out in the cold, constantly checking the app, watching traffic go by.

Sorry for not adding /s

/s, crissakes!

Whooshed me.

probably had $x00M of options to cash out. I'd bail too.

There is a SuperCharger in Nuuk that is powered by a generator that runs on whale oil.

Elon had a good weekend. He was excited when he heard the news that ICE killed another person in Minnesota. He not only spends a lot of time tweeting in defense of these shootings but seems to be positively happy when they happen.

Leon is like any "don't tread on me, my 1st and 2nd amendment rights are saint!" guy, just with more money.

See, now I really don't know if you're kidding...

sounds like a huge growth market, if Tesla can sell 50 cars to india, they should manage atleast half a car to greenland.

He's been re-Xeeting about how Pretti was part of an "illegal, illicit underground network." He's so far gone that he cannot comprehend any opposition to his ideology or those in power who he supports (and paid for!). Anybody who is protesting is paid. Anybody who provides aid to those under siege from ICE must be part of a criminal conspiracy intent on overthrowing the government, or some such. His brain is totally cooked.

I would call it "tread on everyone else" crowd. They very much want to tread on everyone that isn't them.

That's because he is happy. Truth of the matter is that MAGA doesn't love America nearly as much as they hate liberals. While every sane remotely empathic person looked at that video and was horrified these guys were yelling at their monitor or phone "YEAH!! That's what you get!". China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea don't matter. In their eyes the largest threat to America is the DNC. All this bluster about rhetoric is a feint, these guys have had a war time mentality since Trump's first term and now he's managed to give a bunch of them guns, targets and a salary via DHS. You've got that idiot Bovino marching around in WWI Field Marshall attire. These guys know exactly why they've been deployed and it has dick to do with illegal immigrants at this point. Mark my words, the second midterms don't go Trump's way he's going to march these same goons on the Capitol again and try to outright cancel Democracy in general. Musk, Thiel and their cadre of an-cap billionaires are ecstatic about it and probably already trying to divide up the pie for their own future fiefdoms. These guys are dying for Russia style oligarch system because they truly and deeply believe Democracy is a mistake and the people can't decide important issues on their own and need the firm hand of the super alpha male self image they have of themselves. Or, in Thiel's case, he literally thinks he has to run the world because the antichrist is among us and going to bring about armageddon. For whatever positivity they may occasionally project pretty much all of these people have already given up the world as a whole and think the only solution is to in some burn it all the ground and start over and that there's no cost that shouldn't be borne in pursuit of that goal. This is exactly how fascism takes root, people give up on the world as a whole write it off as hopelessly corrupt an decide to accept absolutely any evil that's deemed necessary to save and purify it.

I see we subscribe to the same newsletter LOL

Q4 earnings on Wednesday are going to be bad. Analyst consensus is $0.44 EPS. Reality will be closer to $0.25. Q1 earnings will be even worse. Probably $0. They will pull every trick in the book to avoid going negative.

Radicalized by his own social media platform. Proof positive what unfettered social media (and drugs) does to a out and out moron.

0.25 means sp is pe LOL

https://www.topspeed.com/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-double-production-in-us/ Remember when Twitler promised to "double production" in the U.S. as part of his MAGA pledge to Trump or whatever?  Let's see how that's going... -2024 U.S. Tesla production: 652,514 -2025 U.S. Tesla production: 605,728 Boy, they have an uphill climb to get to 1.3m produced for 2026.  Doesn't Elon always deliver?

A few of tomorrow's Elonversaries: *"If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few (Cybertruck) deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022."* \- Cyberconman, Jan 27, 2021 Speaking directly to investors. *"I'm highly* ***con****fident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human* ***this year****. This is a very big deal."* \- TechnoGrifter, January 27, 2021 Speaking directly to investors.

Well, from 1 to 50 is **4900 percent** growth! Another metric that will make the crowd go wild!

I'm really curious about the numbers in the earnings report, not Musk's lies. With the collapse of their higher prices model sales, revenues could be down drastically. Selling fewer cars and selling cheaper ones mean revenues will be lower. I'm assuming (but not sure) the Y is a lower margin car as well. Throw in the loss of the EV credits and the loss of all carbon credits in Q4, and that's phantom profit that wasn't revenue from sales but showed up as profit to pad margins and increase profit on the books. Starting this quarter Tesla has also lost all Federal solar credits as well, but that won't start showing up until next quarter's earnings report. Q4 2024 Revenue $25.71B Profit $2.6B EPS $0.73 $692M from selling carbon credits to other car companies So what happened last quarter? Spending on AI, robots, new vehicles, declining sales, declining government supports. I'm not extrapolating on a spreadsheet but I'd have to assume revenue of $20-23B, net profit of $1-1.3B, EPS $.27-.35.

Not all carbon credits are gone. Just the US ones (EU and China still have them) and they might still have existing US contracts that run into q4.

But with European credit, do they have to still sell cars to qualify for the credits? They sold an estimated 20-25k fewer vehicles in Europe (from 90k 2024 Q4 to 65-70k in 2025 Q4). So while there are credits earned there to be sold, I'm assuming you don't earn credits on cars you don't build/sell, so you can't then turn and sell those credits. But then again, that's my assumption. My guess is the credit revenue should decline by roughly 20-28% in Q4, just like the sales in their cars. Totally an assumption though. And China's credits just ended, right? That's why sales spiked in Q4? So that will be reflected going forward. and I could be wrong, but I thought the Trump mandate said the US credit sales contracts weren’t enforceable.…like the were banned,

Such bullshit that the taxpayer has been propping up this fraud for so long. We’re more responsible for Tesla’s successes than that chode.

Tesla sold credits to US automotive companies who failed to sell enough EVs or other lower emissions vehicles to meet federal targets. Is the market for that really at all comparable in the EU and China where automakers sell far more EVs?

I don't think the EU have them, and the UK definitely doesnt.

There will be a version of Optimus that can pull a dog sled. Next year.

Their profit will be in the range of $4 billion. It will still be a disaster, and all metrics (other than energy storage) will be trending down. Tesla's income from recognizing "deferred revenue" is incredibly erratic - which IMHO means they have the ability to "bank" credit revenue and recognize them when needed. If true, they surely have enough bank to glide through this quarter. Branch Elonians used to Tesplain to me all that matters is Free Cash Flow. IMHO, that is the number this quarter that might shake the faith of some Elongelicals.

interesting, so they‘ll realize a 50% profit increase on lower revenues, worse mix of vehicles, and loss of the ”free” profit with environmental credits. I was kind of curious if they had a certain amount of credits banked that they could just declare. i haven’t followed their earnings reports long, and I’m just sort of baffled they have these massive, expensive gigafactories heavily government subsidized that aren’t running anywhere near capacity, but they must have some immense capital exposure each quarter. and their R&D must be massive.

A couple of 5 year Elonversaries: *"So from my standpoint, it looks like a very* ***clear and obvious*** *path toward a vehicle that will drive* ***100% safer than a person***\*. Yes. I really don't see any obstacles here."\* Technoking, Jan 27, 2021...speaking directly to shareholders *"And thinking about like how does one justify the value of the company being where it is? And I think there is a way, just with back of the on road map to potentially justify it, where* ***if Tesla's ships, let's say, hypothetically, $50 billion or $60 billion worth of vehicles***\*, and those vehicles become ***full self-driving*** *and can be used in robotaxis -- used as robotaxis, the utility increases from an average of 12 hours a week to potentially an average of 60 hours a week if they're capable of serving as robotaxi. So that's like roughly a five times increase in utility. But let's -- even if you say like, OK, let's just assume that the car becomes twice as useful as -- not five times as useful, but merely twice as useful, that would be a doubling again of the revenue of the company, which is almost entirely gross margin. So it would mean, it would be like if you made $50 million -- $50 billion worth of cars, it will be like having* ***$50 million of incremental profit*** *basically from that because it's just software. So -- and the pace you get* ***20 PE*** *on that, it's like* ***$1 trillion and the company is still in high-growth mode***. So I think there is a way to sort of like justify the valuation of the company where it is using\* ***just the cars and nothing else***, the cars with FSD." - Griftoking, Jan 27, 2021...speaking directly to shareholders Editor's Note: Branch Elonians now rely on AI Nirvana and Optimus Abundance to cope with the (now even higher) valuation.

the amazing thing is that if any other CEO blatantly lied, the SEC would have them in major trouble. he does it so often they’ve given up

Gross profit. Was $5 billion last quarter and $4.1 billion 2024Q4. So I'm looking more in terms of cash, and leaving out depreciation of all that equipment. I'm sure the "headline" will use the gross profit.

Or a Cybertruck that can swim across an ocean channel to South Padre...wait, are these supposed to be real or fake?

okay, Im used to Apple, and I always look at EPS and when they talk about earnings, they talk about net profit. I’ve never paid attention to gross profit. but if Tesla wants a more impressive number, that makes sense to try to use it

One last 5 year Elonversary for today: *"And it's now actually more -- it's more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive. So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly* ***con****fident the car will* ***drive itself*** *for the reliability in* ***excess of a human this year****. This is a very big deal." -* Very Big Liar, Jan 27, 2021

The Branch Elonian who keeps trying to score an "unsupervised" Robo-Ride has now failed on 39 attempts. This is the same guy who claims to have made a cross country "no intervention" drive. In fact, he claims his streak was 12,961 miles before needing an intervention. If true, that's simultaneously very impressive and very terrible. Human drivers in the USA go 700ish thousand miles between accidents, so this is nowhere near as "good" as a human driver. Also - what forced him to intervene? Answer: Winter. Winter will continue to be an insurmountable problem for FSD.

When will Grok be able to perform the function of a tech CEO in excess of a human? Let's say 420% more effective, of you want to put a number on it.

Real or fake, doesn't matter -- just "profound."

6 months ago I opened my put position. pissed off that it moved $100 against me on nothing but Elon's lies, passive in-flows, and his immense* $1B stock buy, well-timed to avoid the 3Q rebalance. \* $1B to Elon is $1k to me

That's the hard thing about trading. You can be right about a stock, but if it's not the right time, it does you no good.

Well, sales dropped from 16,000 units in 2024 to a little under 9500 units in 2025 so there already has been considerable damage to the brand. Really the country with the potential for the biggest decline is Norway thanks to changes in tax breaks that pulled sales forward into 2025.

Pump o'clock -https://newsroom.pilotcompany.com/pilot-partners-with-tesla-on-semi-charger-network-for-fleets/ >Pilot Travel Centers LLC (“Pilot”), the nation’s largest operator of travel centers, has entered into an agreement with Tesla to install Semi Chargers to facilitate heavy-duty electric vehicle truck charging. The Tesla charging stations will be built at select Pilot locations along I-5, I-10, and several major corridors where the need for heavy-duty charging is highest. The first sites are expected to open in Summer 2026. Tesla PR spokesman Sawyer Merritt says they will be installed in 35 locations across the U.S.

I picked up one last contract 12/15 that will pay off the position should we see today's -$2 daily drop continue thru May LOL. My mistake was getting too enthusiastic on my position in July. That EC was a disaster but the market shrugged it off.

> Tesla PR spokesman Sawyer Merritt That's his full time gig, and has been for years. I hope he gets paid

There's a reason why even Waymo has so far only deployed to places that don't get really bad snow much.

November 16, 2017: *"You'll be able to travel* ***anywhere in the world*** *on the Tesla* ***megacharger network****"* *"and because these megachargers are* ***solar powered****, your* ***truck is running on sunlight****"* *"We're guaranteeing a* ***7 cent per kWh*** *wholesale price, I want to be clear about that,* ***these are real numbers*** *- and it only gets better than this, this is a worst case scenario."* I assume this all applies, right?

The full European registration data for December 2025 and the full year has been released. In the EU Tesla sold 21,485 cars (31,567 in December 2024, -31.9% YoY). Total yearly sales were 150,504 (242,436 in 2024, -37.9% YTD). In the EU+EFTA+UK Tesla sold 35,280 cars (44,190 in December 2024, -20.2% YoY). Total yearly sales were 238,656 (326,525 in 2024, -26.9% YTD). BEV sales as a whole increased (+50.3% monthly YoY, +29.7% yearly total). The overall European car market grew slightly (+7.6% monthly YoY, +2.4% yearly total). Source https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_December_2025.pdf November 2025 data [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1psvwby/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_dec_22/nvmhopm/)

Most of their locations are suspiciously light on good old fashioned rain as well.

Never. AI can never accumulate information faster than Elon's big brain hoovers up knowledge. Sooner or later Grok will have a direct cable link to Musk's noggin, to syphon all the world's intelligence straight from the tap...unless, of course, there's a Matthew Perry type event.

It's pretty innovative to shrink 38% in a market that has grown by 30%.

Especially in a market where Tesla built a whole ass factory in Germany to supply model Ys out of. Model 3s OTOH are still being supplied from China, and the European government is still doing little about that; never mind all of the other MIC brands flowing into Europe these days. I bet Tesla's kicking themselves over that one. They very likely built that plant in Germany to avoid the possibility of new tariffs/duties screwing them over on their Chinese imports.

Can't forget that they'll be capable of driving autonomously in convoy, which will be cheaper than rail to transport the same volume of goods, and this technology is ready today! /s \_\_\_ For funsies... Typical freight trains have 90-120 cars attached to a single engine, but can go as high as 200+ cars. Each car has the volume to carry about 4x more volume of cargo than a semi truck trailer, and over 4x the weight. Assuming every train carried 100 cars... If every Tesla semi can carry only one trailer, then to pull the same volume and weight of cargo as a train engine, it would require about 400 Tesla Semis operating autonomously and in convoy. If they can pull tandem trailers, it would take 200 semis. A new train engine costs $2-$6 million. The cost of each semi is currently unknown, but could cost over $200,000. Some recent claims were $250k per truck. At $200k, 200-400 semis to match the one train engine would cost $40-$80 million. Trains are also quite efficient, claimed to be 3-4x as efficient as a diesel semi truck, putting them close to on par with a Tesla Semi's energy efficiency. Given that a train only requires one conductor and one engineer to operate, and Tesla Semi is in fact not capable of riding autonomously and in convoy, it would take 100-200x more employees and salaries to operate the semi trucks than to operate a train. And again... this is based on a train pulling 100 cars, whereas in some instances they can pull 200. Tesla Semis, like all Semi trucks, do have some advantages though. Each truck can break off at will and travel to specific destinations without having to be unloaded from the train first and then transported by semi to its ultimate destination. (presuming the destination isn't on the rail line) Semis can more easily go up steep inclines; albeit transiting steep inclines is a rarity for trains.

You're overthinking that. They built factory in Germany, because Leon wanted to send FU to German car manufactures. If it was built as a hedge to tariffs, it'd be built in Eastern Europe, where labor is cheaper and you're still part of EU market.

One could imagine a spiffy Euro-sized city car designed by an experienced German team at Tesla's Berlin design studio now on sale. Well, generational-genius Elon couldn't so it didn't happen.

The EU has them. https://carboncredits.com/eus-2025-emission-rules-led-tesla-and-mercedes-to-pool-carbon-credits-to-avoid-15-6-billion-fine/

Been there. They always manage a pump post q1 even when there are sometimes week long drops.

if 1Q26 is anything like 1Q25 I will be A-OK LOL

Earnings tomorrow. Consensus is $0.44. Troy is at $0.39. Brad is at $0.30. I think we might go below $0.30, but I'm a know-nothing idiot. Edit: James is at $0.43. But of the 3 he's the least reliable. Hard to produce objective (and useful) analysis when you're a Tesla mega-cheerleader who owns huge amounts of stock.

Starting my put shopping now. I think it’s going to pump tomorrow until after hours.

At some point there will be epic loss porn from all of these clowns and I very much doubt they are hedging TSLA piles.

This is a simpler equation. Currently rail costs around $0.10 less per ton mile than truck. Drivers get paid around 80 cents per mile. And an average truck carries 20 tons. So the driver cost per ton mile is 4 cents, meaning the differential drops to 6 cents, if (and this is a fantastical if) the trucks are 100% autonomous. So the math doesn't math. But wait, there's more: Musk promised 7 cent kWh power would fuel his fleet. Why? Chant it like a cult: Commercial Rates, Commerical Rates...parrotted by the faithful, who know zilch about electrical billing and the obscene demand rates intermittent fueling of a Semi truck at some remote "megacharger" would bring. Anyway, ad to the very unlikey "if": magic 7 cent power. And while we're at it, lets pretend that no human being will have to strap down the load, inspect the lights, put the tarp on, etc, etc.

Maybe Tesla paused production to retool for the next fake shiny object.

IIRC, when the China factory was first announced, TSLA said it was meant to service *only* the Chinese market. That didn't work out.

Thursday has a lot of Elonversaries, so I'm getting a head start. Today we look at last year's earning's call, 1 year ago Thursday. First, lets look at some numbers from the call. Technoking made two claims: \- Optimus would cost $20k to produce \- Optimus would generate $10 trillion in revenue. In the past he has predicted 30 billion bots would be sold. $10 trillion divided by 30 billion units = $333 revenue per sexbot?...or a loss of $19,667 per unit...or a $590 trillion total in the red? Break even would be a mere 500 million sexbots...a 20% margin would be a smaller 416 million units. I thought every person on the planet would have several? Maybe I need to land a rocket, before any of that makes sense. Or maybe, just maybe...and hear me out here: there's a chance he's just making up numbers on the fly. Remember, this is the damn investor call he's riffing on with "trillions" being tossed around. As a comparison, Wal Mart leads the world in annual revenue at $680 billion, but sure, whatever - of course TSLA will collect 15 times that. Current revenue tally from Optimus = nothin'. Next, from the slide deck: *"Plans for* ***new vehicles***\*, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the\* ***first half of 2025***\*."\* I chuckled watching the Branch Elonians have a slap fight over the veracity of this statement. Of course TSLA wouldn't lie so blatantly in its slide deck, and they have to reaaaaaaally be about to release a new model, right?...RIGHT!!?!?? Welp, the de-contented models have entered the chat :(

It's going to boil down to regulatory credits. I don't think we'll hit $0.30 but it'll be the difference between say $0.40 and $0.35. As for what the stock does that'll probably depend on what Musk says on the earnings call and whatever the other MAG7 stocks end up doing with their earnings. As soon as things go risk off Tesla is going to nose dive since it's value is completely disconnected from its current operations and earnings power.

10 years ago Tesla arguably had an inside track on the world's best minds. You really, really can't say that now. Not that I have a 4-digit IQ, but I wouldn't want to be personally within 2000' of this clown.

Any group photo of employees at his companies shows mostly people in their 20s. NOBODY sticks around for very long.

Just wanted to say we are less than 48 hours into the Terathread and nearly 90 comments. Not a bad start to the week.

Not to mention that the near future looks just as bad if not worse... Could we see $0.28 by Q2 or Q3? Is that a Trillion dollar company?

Norwegian mandatory technical inspection shows the same failure rate for 4 year old Teslas. 44% of 2021 models didn't pass(Denmark 45%). Same type of problems, steering, wheels, suspension.

A few 6 year Elonversaries tomorrow. *"It's looking like we might be* ***feature-complete in a few months****. The feature-complete just means like it has some chance of going from your home to work let's say with no interventions. So, that's --* ***it doesn't mean the features are working well****, but it means it has above zero chance"* *"And as we're close to* ***Full Self-Driving****, that is just going to become more and more compelling. So that's for our financial standpoint, that's the real mind-blowing situation is* ***high-volume, high-margin*** *because of autonomy."* *"So, over time, we think* ***full self-driving*** *will become the* ***most important source of profitability*** *for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we are completely* ***con****fident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we'll* ***achieve full self-driving*** ***this year****, yeah, with data safety level significantly greater than the present. So it's -- you know, the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving by a software update, I think, might end up being the* ***biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history.*** *"*

I doubt they get to $.30 unless something funky goes on. They will fraud their way up to \~$.40+ this quarter. But Q1...wooo boy. They're trending towards 340k deliveries. Those factories cost a lot of money just to keep open. I don't know, can Edolf convince SpaceX and his buddies at ICE to buy 40k+ vehicles? Maybe they can expand into Greenland to start selling there?

Through 27 days in the six EU daily reporting countries: 2026: 1676 2025: 3036 2024: 5198

WS consensus for Q1 is $.41 right now for...reasons.

Like many things Musk/Tesla have claimed, that was a lie. It took the Shanghai plant a whole 9 months from start of production for Tesla to begin shipping vehicles to Europe; before the factory was even fully ramped. It had nothing to do with it 'not working out' in Asia, it had to do with it being far more profitable to sell their Chinese made cars into a higher cost of living nation at a higher MSRP, generating a significantly higher profit margin than had they sold into China and other lower cost of living Asian nations. This of course spiked their corporate profits and allowed them to claim that it was their R&D and manufacturing prowess that enabled them to sell cars at significantly higher margins than other OEMs; rather than it clearly being the dynamic of building a huge percentage of their overall global production in China and selling it in Europe. Low cost manufacturing + high cost of living customers. I can't remember which, but a couple of years ago one of the Chinese companies made the claim that selling a vehicle in Europe could generate multiple times greater profit margins than selling the same vehicle in China at a lower price. Not surprisingly, it was after Tesla began to sell Chinese vehicles in Europe when their gross vehicle margins soared. That's because cost to build the cars in China was significantly lower than in the US on account of much lower labor prices, longer shifts requiring fewer overall workers, cheaper healthcare, weaker regulations and cheaper waste disposal, and Tesla was almost certainly receiving major subsidies and parts supply deals from heavily subsidized battery producers. I also wouldn't be shocked if part of the reason Tesla rapidly moved to European exports was at the direction of the Chinese government, who clearly used Tesla to start the wave of mass exports of Chinese made vehicles to Western nations. Tesla was their foot in the door. When Tesla started mass exporting cars to Europe, they instantly became the largest exporter of Chinese made vehicles to the West, opening the door to other Chinese companies, and helping to enable the rapid expansion of China's homegrown vehicle production industry; specifically targeting the EVs that the West hadn't yet made a concerted effort to go all in on yet. Had it not been for the first set of tariffs during Trump's term, there's a very good chance that Musk was planning to export cars and/or car parts (batteries) from China to the US. In terms of car parts, they absolutely wanted to ship Chinese made batteries to the US, where they were clearly getting a great (and probably heavily subsidized) deal on them. In fact, I believe it was when Trump reduced the tariff on Chinese imported batteries that Tesla pivoted in the US to selling a standard range model with an LFP battery around the 3rd quarter of 2021 and I believe that went on until October 2024 when they discontinued models with LFP batteries; likely on account of the IRA federal EV tax credit rules restricting the use of imported batteries, and Biden's new 25% tariffs on Chinese automotive imports. Needless to say, since the early days of Tesla's Chinese exports to Europe, Tesla's gross vehicle margins have since dumped down to a level closer to what's typical of most major OEMs.

Small nitpick, but there is no official statement re: 30 billion sexbots. He's just said they'll outnumber people, I think at one point saying everyone will be buy 2-3.

340k? Try 300k.

I'm going off of the betting markets.

*"I think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will probably be at least two to one, one to one for sure, which means something on the order of 10 billion humanoid robots, maybe 20 or 30"* \- Technoking speaking to shareholders, June 13, 2024

My man

Do you have any Elonverseries about claims Twitter will be a bank? Those must be some doozies.

1676 is one day's production from Shanghai, easy, just two shifts.

Will there be an investor question about Elon's new fake products, like AI datacenters & factories in orbit?

*TESLA 4Q ADJ EPS 50C, EST. 45C *TESLA 4Q REV. $24.90B, EST. $25.11B *TESLA 4Q GROSS MARGIN 20.1%, EST. 17.1% *TESLA 4Q FREE CASH FLOW $1.42B, EST. $1.59B *TESLA TO INVEST $2B TO BUY SERIES E PREFERRED SHARES OF XAI

They really must have pulled out all the stops for this one. They also "invested" $2bn into xAI, apparently?

Yikes free cash flow plummeting

How the hell do you have ~$3b less in auto revenue in a quarter but only lose $45m in gross profit from q3 what financial fuckery is this operating expenses were up but operating margin was lower than 1 year ago

[deleted]

Probably banked regulatory credits. IIRC, they also had to make up for the drop in Bitcoin in Q4. So lots of credits is kind of the only answer. Also FSD revenue recognition. The crazy thing is not that part, it is the revenue, earnings and market share expectations for Tesla at their current stock valuation. In a few quarters, their stock will go up because they exceeded expectations with $15B in quarterly revenue.

Pretty much everything in their ER is negative YOY except for expenses that are up YOY and energy generation lmao

"We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories. Deliveries and deployments will be impacted by aggregate demand for our products, supply chain readiness and allocation decisions between sale to customers or use for our owned and operated fleet." They are forecasting another sales decline lmao

"Began removing safety monitor from our Robotaxis in Austin in January" "Began" is doing a lot of work here

$542m of their $840m in net income came from regulatory credits.

[deleted]

"On January 16, 2026, Tesla entered into an agreement to invest approximately $2 billion to acquire shares of Series E Preferred Stock of xAI as part of their recent publicly-disclosed financing round. Tesla’s investment was made on market terms consistent with those previously agreed to by other investors in the financing round. As set forth in Master Plan Part IV, Tesla is building products and services that bring AI into the physical world. Meanwhile, xAI is developing leading digital AI products and services, such as its large language model (Grok)." These losers are letting elon pick their pockets clean to fund his private company where he likely pockets a good portion of that $2b

Another guerilla marketing stunt that they pulled off one (1) time.

I guess I've steered clear of that part of the Musk universe, other than his (and his sycophants') chest pounding that he would never be forced to buy it. I think the reason is things like ad revenue, clicks, bot rates, etc are all numbers that can be re-defined and manipulated. Stuff like "we're going to Mars" or "30 billion robots" are much more cut and dry and obviously absurd. And AFAIK, nothing much stops him from making the "Bank of Xitter" - he could put a nameplate on something like Tesla did with insurance.

... and replaced them with double the number of safety monitors driving two additional cars 10m away

Fun fact: 1/4 of the people on this planet don't have access to clean water. But sure, they'll be buying a couple of robots each.

26c of that 50c is adding in digital asset gains and stock based comp.

Isn’t this similar to the unlimited cash machine Nvidia is doing with every company they’re in bed with, investing in each other’s company to keep the hype going?

When does the regulatory credits end? When does Tesla stop claiming regulatory credits in their books?

Not really because nvidia isn't "investing" it's money into companies that are owned by Jensen Elon is just pilfering the tesla stockpile either for himself or to keep Xai's lights on until they go public and he can cash out. Remember that Xai is straddled with twitter's debt

Elon buys twitter Elon sells twitter to xAi Tesla "invests" 2 billion into xAi Tesla shareholders are paying elon's twitter debt lol can't make this shit up

Nvidia just invested $2B in CoreWave so that CoreWave could secure & purchase new Nvidia chips with that money. I doubt the same will happen with xAI. Maybe xAI buys some Cybertrucks from Tesla, but not anywhere near $2B.

Well according to their earnings deck auto gross margins were up and ASP improved, which is a big surprise given they released lower cost models in the US to deal with tax credit expiration. They did have the Y longbody in China and Norway buying a bit more in the EU but I'm still surprised ASP rose. Automotive gross margin ex. regulatory credits actually improved significantly too, something like 2.6% which again is a surprise. However they also noted a forex gain which probably benefitted sales in China for most of the quarter and they specifically called out higher FSD subscription revenue as a profit driver. Obviously regulatory credit revenue was substantially higher than anyone was expecting too. Still I find auto gross margins creeping up that much surprising especially since they're clearly running their factories even further below capacity to avoid inventory build up and S/X/CT sales have been cratering. I don't see them listing subscription information anywhere specifically so I'm curious if that number will end up on the call, because they're going to flaunt it if it's remotely good and promise more with them moving basic autopilot functionality into the FSD subscription too.

Well, they managed to beat my thoughts. They came in at: $24.9B Revenue $1.4B Earnings (aka Net Profit) $0.50 EPS So either energy is much more lucrative, the cheaper models they sold are much higher margin than I assumed, they experienced a rush of 4th quarter solar and Powerwall installations due to the impending end of Federal solar credits, the weak dollar helped them, they were able to claim old banked carbon credits, or they fudged the earnings.

He said he was going to do this a couple years back even before he had xAI buy Twitter. This Russian nesting doll of Elon's self dealing makes zero sense from a shareholder value perspective beyond comingling all his delusions together and constantly giving him more money while he offloads risk to the market.

And xAI buys megapacks from TSLA to pump up the revenue/stock.

\~10% of all Cybertrucks sold last year (up to 2k) were purchased by SpaceX. Wonder how many other shenanigans he pulled to squeak another quarter out.

- Tesla 2025 annual EPS was **$1.67**, a **18.14% decline** from 2024. - Tesla 2024 annual EPS was **$2.04**, a **52.56% decline** from 2023. - Tesla 2023 annual EPS was $4.3, a 18.78% increase from 2022. - Tesla 2022 annual EPS was $3.62, a 122.09% increase from 2021. I guess they didn't sell enough hot dogs at their restaurant in 2025

TSLA: Tesla CFO says expecting 2026 capex in excess of $20B *TESLA SHARES QUICKLY PARE GAIN AFTER CFO’S CAPEX COMMENT

Tesla discontinuing Model S and Model X to make room for robots

Their quarterly net income dropped to $856 million in Q4 '25, down from $2.143 billion in Q4 '24. That includes crypto losses. Excluding interest and other income (crypto), their income from operations dropped from $1.583 billion to $1.409 billion. Crazy that it's such a minimal drop given how much their vehicle sales dropped. Maybe they beat estimates, but it's still ugly. Their "other expense" of $592 is likely almost entirely crypto losses with bitcoin being down about 23% in Q4 alone. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **Why if they sold so many fewer vehicles did their income from operations drop so little?** For starters, their gross vehicle margins (revenue minus cost of revenue) rose from $2.596 billion in Q4 '24 to $3.071 billion in Q4 '25, excluding regulatory credits, even though they sold significantly fewer vehicles. That's a gross vehicle profit increase from $5,238 per vehicle to $7,342 per vehicle. Crazy bump! **How is that possible?** **Vehicles:** They raised prices of multiple trims and models in Q4 '25 versus '24. * Model 3 prices remained generally unchanged y/y, except they began offering a cheaper trim. * Model Y saw an increase in price of the performance trim by $6000 y/y. The MYP could have sold quite a few units given that it hadn't been on sale since March of 2025, and most people that could afford this vehicle are wealthy enough where they wouldn't have qualified for the federal EV tax credit anyways. Therefore, it sold into pent up demand. No doubt, this huge price hike lead to significantly higher margins. The LR-AWD, likely the Y's top selling trim, increased by $1000 y/y. Tesla also offered a cheaper trim. * The Model X and S saw $15k-$20k y/y price increases, even though they both sold like shit. * The Cybertruck standard trim remained unchanged, but the top trim increased by $15k. None of these vehicles qualified for the tax credit, so again, wealthy people would buy them without a care in the world about the EV tax credit. * SpaceX and xAI bought up thousands of Cybertrucks, we really have no idea exactly how many units they bought and how much they paid for them. I wouldn't be shocked if Tesla sold top trim Cybertrucks for $115k each, and even added an additional charge of multiple thousands of dollars on top to boost their revenue and margins in the quarter. $6k and $15k-$20k price hikes in a single year could have resulted in significantly higher margins on each sale of these models and trims, boosting Tesla's overall gross vehicle margins. ... continued below... **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Edit:** Thanks u/torokunai for reminding me. In Q4 2024, prior to the refresh of the model Y, Tesla drastically cut prices across their entire model Y inventory to try and sell out the old version's inventory, of which they had built up a hefty amount. The discounts were as high as $5000 off and 0% interest. So technically Q4 '24 MSRPs aren't directly relatable to Q4 '25, as that one time discounting in '24 would have caused a significant reduction in Q4 '24 margins and profits. So comparing the abnormally low discounted Q4 '24 margins / profits to the more normal Q4 '25 makes Q4 '25 look not so bad. However, the reality is that Q4 '25 was a bad quarter, worse than Q4 '24 even with the '24 discounts on model Y inventory... And yet even without those abnormal discounts, Q4' 25 underperformed Q4 '24. Considering the Q4 '24 results were with large discounts, Tesla's Q4 '25 results are actually quite bad, and explains the significant increase in profit margins y/y.

**Storage:** Storage installations increased to 14.2 GWh from 11 GWh, a 30% increase, and revenue increased by 25.3%, whereas profit increased by 42%. Gross margin increased from 25.2% to 28.6%. This is strange, suggesting demand is outpacing supply, even though more competitors have moved into this sector, and Tesla may have had a surplus of cells that they were desperate to get rid of on account of declining vehicle sales. Based on my math, they sold 78,344 fewer vehicles in Q4' 25 than in '24, so at 75 kWh of cells per vehicle on average, that's about 5.88 GWh of surplus cells, but they only sold an additional 3.2 GWh of battery storage. It may be possible that they were supply constrained in producing and installing megapacks. It may be possible that some of the storage they deployed last year was to their own factories and generated zero revenue, or maybe they sold some to xAI and SpaceX at a discount last year, whereas this year more of their sales were to outside companies... Hard to say. Costs per GWh were $208 million in Q4 '24 and $193 million per GWh in '25, a 7% decline. It's possible some of this savings came from their Chinese Megapack factory, but you'd also think any storage sold to Chinese companies would be at a discount compared to what Western customers charge. It is possible Tesla was exporting Megapacks from China to higher cost of living nations, reducing their costs and boosting their margins and profits. It's also possible they were able to reduce their cell supply contract, albeit it's out of the norm given that Tesla drives down their cell prices by ordering huge volumes of cells from their suppliers well in advance. It's also very possible they managed to finagle better prices with Chinese suppliers, or received more in subsidies within China. **Regulatory Credits:** I'm very curious how they managed to rake in more regulatory credit income in Q4 than they did in Q3. US ZEV regulatory credit income should have been null and void as of Q4. There have been claims that US regulatory credits may make up as much as 70% of their total regulatory income. They did see a $150 million drop from Q4 '24, or about 22%, but they also saw a drop in vehicle sales of about 16% y/y. (Regulatory credits aren't directly tied to a quarter's vehicle sales.) If this regulatory income didn't come from the US (maybe OEMs are still buying it in the US in Q4??), then it goes without question that they sold an excess amount of regulatory credits in their other major markets, and since Tesla doesn't break it down, we have no idea where it came from. Market wise, it would be hard to explain them seeing a sudden increase in Chinese regulatory credits, as Tesla's sales fell there, and there's far more EV competition with Tesla's market share falling, so they should have seen credit value falling. It's possible it came from Europe, but Europe has also seen a higher number of EVs, so regulatory credit value should be falling there. South Korea is a possibility given the large growth in Tesla sales there... or who knows, maybe Middle Eastern nations just gave Tesla a bunch of "regulatory credit money" they came up with out of thin air to provide to Tesla and boost their financials. Otherwise, it's also possible Tesla simply chose to sell a much MUCH larger volume of their existing regulatory credits in their other markets. Shame we can't see how many regulatory credits they have in each market, or at all, or see how many they sold each quarter and where.

Crazy, Elon really wants to go to jail. He just said the operate unsupervised robotaxis with no follow car. Ashok repeated it... That is such a blatant lie...

Based on their significant price increases in 2H '25, I was suggesting they were paring model S/X supply down significantly, which was confirmed by their production numbers in their quarterly reports. I figured they may end up discontinuing them.

*MUSK SAYS TESLA TO 'HOPEFULLY' DEBUT NEXT-GEN ROADSTER IN APRIL

Gets better, xAI bought twitter in an all shares sale just after banks suddenly starting increasing their estimated valuations of Twitter to nearly the value Musk bought it for, even though just prior to that, estimates were suggesting Twitter's value had fallen to as little as 30% of what Musk paid for it. By increasing the value of Twitter before xAI bought it, and with Musk being the largest shareholder of Twitter, it significantly increased his stake in xAI; as high or higher than a 58% stake. His other sycophants who bought into Twitter also received a boon in xAI stock from the sale, on top of the piece of xAI they already owned. This type of corporate fraud isn't anything new for Musk, he literally did the exact same thing with Solar City. As the largest shareholder of Solar City, a company that was on the verge of bankruptcy, he falsified the status of the company's solar roof panels, then convinced Tesla shareholders and the board to buy Solar City at an inflated valuation in an all shares sale. It didn't take much effort to convince the board, as we now understand it. They're Musk loyalists. While most CEOs and corporate boards would be looking to buy companies for the cheapest possible price, that isn't the case when Musk is buying companies he already owns. He uses Tesla to overpay for those companies to not only bail himself out on his terrible investments, but to enrich himself with significantly more valuable Tesla shares. In the past, that's led to him collateralizing his Tesla (and SpaceX) shares to take out super low interest bank loans, and use them to buy Tesla stock on the open market to drive its share price up. Since a large chunk of Tesla shares are locked up in the portfolios of buy-and-hold forever shareholders (including himself) and index/pension/national wealth funds, it doesn't take much buying to rapidly drive the stock price up. Since he's the largest shareholder, his paper wealth skyrockets! He's literally found a way to game the system to hyperinflate the value of Tesla. Crazy. Now Musk wants Tesla to buy xAI... in an all shares sale of course... \*sigh\*... xAI is a private company that's ridiculously overvalued, where if Tesla were to buy it today, Musk would get over $200 billion worth of Tesla shares at the current Tesla share price and a MUCH larger ownership stake in Tesla, easily giving him over a 25% stake in the company. That would lead to creating more shares, diluting the value of all existing shares. However, Musk is super greedy. If Musk allows Tesla's share price to drop significantly, let's say by 50% as an easy example, while they maintain the artificially inflated $400 billion valuation of xAI, then the number of Tesla shares Musk would get in the sale would be double what he could get today, and would require creating double the shares they would need to today. Those shares would still be worth over $200 billion, but Musk would get double the Tesla shares in the sale, taking his ownership stake well above 25%.... probably over 30%! (I won't bother doing the math) Again, this would dilute existing shareholders (including himself, but he doesn't care, because he's getting 58% of the new shares). From there, Musk can re-pump Tesla stock over the next year, or few years (it doesn't matter how long it takes) back to the current value using more and more and more and more vaporware promises, or collateralizing his new shares and buying Tesla stock on the open market again. This would double the value of the shares he just got from xAI... making them worth over $400 billion! This would easily put Musk's net worth over $1 trillion and make him the first trillionaire. Based on his insecure little gamer boy mentality, where he feels he must win at all costs and show the world how great he is as a big trolling FU to the planet, his becoming the first trillionaire is probably his main motivation in life right now. What a sad motivation to have.

yes he pulled April 1 out of his butt at the last influencer meeting

"1" counts

I got my closeout 2023 MY the last week of 2023 for $6000 off list. Elon's certainly not doing those inventory deals any more.

He knows the Trump administration is never going to prosecute him and he probably already pre-ordered his blanket pardon release date January 2029. Along with the extra insurance transferring it if Vance is president then.

Publicly traded companies investing in crypto is such a scam. If people want to gamble on shitcoins they're better off just buying them straight.

So...TSLA invested $2 billion into Elon's AI company. Sounds like Erroll isn't the only Musk who enjoys a little incest. Sounds totally above board.

Do you mean 2024 MY? I forgot that happened in Q4 2024, that was before they shutdown all the plants for the release of the refreshed model Y. Yep, that would certainly explain why their profits didn't drop so much versus Q4 '24 on account of their terrible Q4 '25 sales numbers. Because they weren't running such ridiculously high discounts in Q4 '25.

Xai must be in dire straits financially. And how couldn't they be? They burn billions and make no money.

Margin improvement may have been driven by battery material cost reductions, especially if their 2024 accounting was driven more by 2023 costs.

So Model S and Model X are gone, production of Model 3 and Y is probably being reduced (2026Q1 not looking great so far) and Cybertruck production has already been scaled down... was there any discussion about writedowns?

Like clockwork: *"Basically first half of 2020 for production of Model Y, and something similar for semi and Roadster"* \- June 6, **2018** *"Important note about Tesla Battery Day unveil tomorrow. This affects long-term production, especially Semi, Cybertruck & Roadster, but what we announce will not reach serious high-volume production until 2022."* \- September 21, **2020** *"Assuming 2022 is not mega drama, new Roadster should ship in 2023"* \- Sep 1, **2021** *"We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year"* \- January 26, **2022** "We expect to complete the engineering and design of the next-gen Tesla roadster this year and hopefully start production…this is not a commitment but hopefully start production next year." - May 17, **2023** *"Tonight, we radically increased the design goals for the new Tesla Roadster. There will never be another car like this, if you could even call it a car. Production design complete and unveil end of year, aiming to ship next year"* \- Feb 27, **2024**

Well, they just raised $20 billion from VC idiots, so there's that. I call it the "SpaceX Mirage of Profitability Model". To put that into perspective, all time capital raises for SpaceX are $12 billion, so the AI grift just hit the exponential S-curve on Musk's ability to raise money.

Sonds like its time to float some rumors about building some new factories.

I bought 12/2023 but they were still doing discounts in 2024 too.

I do wish we knew the actual burn rate of the two. Which one is more an albatross.

Gotcha, yeah, I'm pretty sure the December 2024 discounts were enormous as they tried to sell out their old model Y inventory prior to the global refresh.

>Costs per GWh were $208 million in Q4 '24 and $193 million per GWh in '25, a 7% decline. This is at least twice what costs are like for Chinese grid scale companies. Quite possibly closer to three times. If they don't catch up fast Tesla's energy storage division is on borrowed time. Brand loyalty and reputation is not going to last long here. Even in the US where Chinese competition isn't directly viable this isn't going to stay competitive and the storage market is likely facing its own headwinds under the fiercely anti-renewables Trump administration.

I don't see why they needed the space to build Optimus robots that aren't even useful for anything beyond handing out popcorn. Also, it seems odd to need the space of their smallest production vehicle in their highest production plant. Austin is 2X the size and vastly underutilized on the Cybertruck.

They haven't operated a single car without a chaser. If they're saying otherwise now they're just blatantly lying.

I think its gotta be Xai. $20 billion in one round is insane. Looks like in 25 months they've raised $37 billion.

I'm sure they had a totally open bidding process on which AI company to invest in and totally naturally landed on the one that's not market leading in pretty much any metric but happens to be owned by Elon. Not that it makes any business sense for Tesla to be passive investors in an AI company to begin with.

SpaceX is estimated to be break even but we don't really know. Starlink is supposed to be mildly profitable whereas Starship is a cash furnace. But SpaceX also does a lot of black projects and is probably getting a lot of cash for their loyalty to the regime. As for xAI, it is a cash inferno. They're burning almost as much money as OpenAI is. https://archive.is/Nlw48

Yeah it's the Starship side I'm interested in. Maybe the reduced cadence of data collections has stopped some of the bleeding. Let alone Starlink is "profitable" but how much of that is Musk math.

They haven't been selling many of them for over a year. Initial wave of CT sales concealed it bit but the S and X just have not been remotely competitive for a while in a high end luxury EV market. I think hiking the prices was just to milk whatever they could out of the prior Tesla fans who were still buying them as they weren't nearly as price sensitive or likely to cross shop.

How it started: November 13, 2025: *"Elon Musk says report on xAI's $15 billion fundraise is 'false'"* How its going: *"On January 16, 2026, Tesla entered into an agreement to invest approximately $2 billion to acquire shares of Series E Preferred Stock of xAI as part of their recent publicly-disclosed financing round."* Did Elon lie about material non-public information? Just curious - not expecting any consequences.

This is what shareholders voted for.

xAI funding secured

maybe 1...

Not just trump. dems won’t do anything either.

I mean who else is going to bail out xAI? SpaceX?

He’s not going to jail unless Tesla goes bankrupt in a fast and furious fashion. Even then I doubt it would happen.

You don't think SpaceX contributed to the cause too? How else is SpaceX gonna spend NASA's money?...build a moon lander?

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-on-its-way-out-as-tesla-slashes-4680-cell-supplier-contract-by-99-263434.html Have they actually stopped making Cyberstucks already? They must have a ton of inventory still. Is there any evidence of new ones in 2026?

Mexico is back on the menu.

IIRC, TSLA deferred on purchasing chips it had ordered, and let them be sold to xAI around a year ago...now TSLA gets to buy them after all.

If you're hobby is collection Elonversaries, then Earnings Season = Harvest Season. There were some doozies today for sure, but I can't help but repeat this verse of pure technobabble poetry: *"If you set up managing a large team of Optimus robots to build a factory or build a refinery, and say a rare hypothetical like this is a hypothetical example. A rare earth ore refinery. Which we do desperately need in America. Then you'd say, well, what's going to organize the Optimus robots to build that ore refinery? You kind of need an orchestra conductor. So then Grok would be kind of the orchestra conductor. For the Optimus robots to build the hypothetically, an it might not be hypothetical in the future."*

>When Tesla started Cybertruck deliveries at the end of 2023, ***everyone*** thought the electric pickup would become an instant hit. Ummm...no.

Every blind white nationalist.

You could make a real game of "who said this" of him vs a 3rd grader.

Yep, I've thought about posting 3 actual quotes and 1 made up quote, and let people guess which one fake.

Product updates from the earnings call: Roadster: "hoping" for April Semi: Deafening silence $25k Model: Nothing Cyberquad: Nope Optimus: "probably" end of this year Cybercab: "Expect" it in April Slate and Terra Cotta Solar Roof: Are you kidding? Model S & X: Dead Model 3 & Y: Dying - no mention at all AI: mentioned 29 times Chip: mentioned 25 times Compute: mentioned 4 times Also noteworthy, our very "Terathread" has now been challenged. Musk is now too big for mere "giga". Enter the "TerraFab"! (4 mentions) Now for the part I've been predicting. How does TSLA continue along with declining revenues, yet still funnel money into Musk's other ventures? Raise money of course! Listen to Vaibhav Taneja lay the groundwork: *" I think we're getting into this investment phase because we have big aspirations. You look at it, some of these aspirations are infrastructure plays. Especially if you have to do a chip fab and we have to do a solar cell manufacturing fab. Those are infrastructure plays.* *That funding takes a little bit longer. Your third part of your question was, how are we going to fund it? Initially, obviously, we have over $44 billion of cash and investments on the books. So we'll use our internal resources, but there are ways where we can fund it especially when we look at the robotaxi fleet because anytime you have a consistent stream of cash flow, you can go and get money from the banks.* ***We have had conversations with banks*** *about it. That is something how we're going to do it. On the infrastructure play side, we don't have a number yet."* Capital raise incoming!!!...so save humanity and provide Amazing Abundance, of course. And of course said capital raise will be at some crazy valuation, so Elon can start collecting on his lotto winnings.

They raised $14.999999999B. $15B is clearly false.

Damn first principles again.

Ok, the Elongelical named Dave who travelled to Austin to find an "unsupervised" robo-ride - how is it going for him? The count is up to ~~49~~ Edit: (now up to ~~53~~ 54) rides taken - all with a supervisor. He's starting to note the plates, and when he sees a familiar plate show up, he cancels the ride and schedules another one. He may actually believe there's an actual "unsupervised" needle in this haystack. He has now spent 5 days of his life on this quest.

He must have a very fulfilling life and crushing it with the ladies.

Elon's Q4 EC blather: Mission / Philosophy ████████ Autonomy / FSD ████████████████ Robotaxi Fleet ██████████████ Cars (S/X wind-down) ██████ Optimus (robots) ███████████████ Energy / Solar ████████ Factories / CapEx ███████ Workforce / Culture ████

My guess is, if these things are even running regularly, that they're only ferrying employees to and from Tesla's factory after they signed a lengthy waiver. Might literally be impossible for anyone else to use them.

Chief Con Officer tonight: "We're able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin. These are paid rides. So these are just sort of randomly selected paid rides with no safety monitor. And I think maybe as of maybe yesterday or so, we actually we don't even have a chase car or anything like that. So these are just cars with no people in them and no one's following the car in Austin." quadruple 'maybe' construction here is indicative of *ex posterior* extemporization

How does someone have the time, money, and patience for something so pointless.

Is it time for the PetaThread?

Are those spoiler tags? I can't read it on the app

Weird we always get an influx of elongellicals here around earnings. I guess they are bored in their echo chambers.

How bad was the mumblings? Are we still doing endless abundance?

Unemployment and “unfuckable” are common traits in the elongellical community.

It may be...but its awful close to PedoThread.

I thought that, but also seems fitting considering the type of people the subject pals around with.

Oh look at that. Just got my tesla lounge and investor club ban. Never posted in investor club. The butthurt is starting again.

Elon claims Prima Noctis on all Optimus bots.

It's quite funny that auto sales as a percentage of the business is actually decreasing.... because auto sales are decreasing so much. That's one way to become not a car company.

My vague understanding is, like the S and X (low volume cars) part of why they haven't discontinued them is to avoid the accounting write down.  If they built factory capacity to make 200k cyber trucks a year and they're doing 10% of that, chances are when they discontinue it they have to account for the massive financial failure on the books

The weaker dollar also increases the value of overseas sales.

Its a bar graph that is sort of wrapping the graphic. It makes sense on a desktop.

It's a misleading statistic too as it ignores dependencies in their services business. Services has 'grown' as a result of their fleet aging and literally requires them to continue selling vehicles to exist. There's some other things in there like merchandising but it's mostly auto related. If you look at it through lens, and combine those segments, since Q1 2023 they've moved from being 93.44% auto revenue to around 84.6% in Q4 2025. Energy has definitely grown a ton but they aren't nearly diversified or less auto sales dependent as they would like everyone to believe.

Also, I don't think energy is necessarily on a predictable upward trajectory. Its "lumpy", I suspect because very large grid scale projects can have an outsized impact on the numbers. Q4 2019            \~$0.44 B Q1 2020            \~$0.29 B Q2 2020            \~$0.37 B Q3 2020            \~$0.58 B Q4 2020            \~$0.75 B Q1 2021            \~$0.49 B Q2 2021            \~$0.80 B Q3 2021            \~$0.81 B Q4 2021            \~$0.69 B Q1 2022            \~$0.62 B Q2 2022            \~$0.87 B Q3 2022            \~$1.12 B Q4 2022            \~$1.31 B Q1 2023            \~$1.53 B Q2 2023            \~$1.51 B Q3 2023            \~$1.56 B Q4 2023            \~$1.44 B Q1 2024            \~$1.64 B Q2 2024            \~$3.01 B Q3 2024            \~$2.38 B Q4 2024            \~$3.06 B Q1 2025            \~$2.73 B Q2 2025            \~$2.79 B Q3 2025            \~$3.42 B Q4 2025            \~$3.80 B

Jan YoY registration will be -50% (on the already -40% of last year...): [https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL\_DAILY/QoQ-Chart](https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart)

This is a major moment of his life - he is currently one of the most important people in the Teslasphere and he must hold on to that as a source of self worth.

Pedo is just South African slang for "hey buddy/pal".

Funny that - we were correct for day one. Might need to dig up some 2019 threads to see our predictions.

So this is the "march of 9’s" they are talking about.

Since they exit car business it won't matter

I was trying to find the Robotics and Robotaxi revenue but couldn’t find it broken out. Surely there must be lots of that to justify the stock value right?

[deleted]

Weird things can happen with Tesla deliveries. Also, this is just 6 countries. But with the exception of 2025Q4, these countries are usually enough for us to get the overall trend for the rest of Europe. My bet was a ~40% fall on top of the ~40% fall in sales in 2025Q1.

They should have already accounted for an impairment by now. Their accounting is… interesting.

A couple of ~~6~~ 4 year Elonversaries: *"We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to* ***production*** *hopefully* ***next year***\*"\* - Terrafibber, Jan 29, ~~2020~~ 2022 *"I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time."* \- GigaGrifter, Jan 29, ~~2020~~ 2022 And a 1 year Elonversary: *"I see a* ***path***\*. I'm not saying it's an easy path but I see a\* ***path*** *of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close, like maybe several times more than -- I mean, there is a* ***path*** *where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There's a* ***path*** *to that." -* **Path**alogical Liar, Jan 29, 2025

This 'a path' stuff is how Tesla is valued $1.35T today. No other company is out here saying buy our stock now and we'll 10X from here. Except Saylor with his buttcoin.

Tesla is instantly back below $430 on market open. The PE ratio is obviously still brutal.

From TSLA's 8-K ref the 2025 shareholder meeting: *"Proposal 7 was a shareholder proposal regarding Board authorization of an* ***investment in*** [***x.AI***](http://x.AI) ***Corp.*** *While more votes were cast in favor of the proposal than against, a significant number of shareholders abstained. Since our bylaws generally consider abstention as votes against,* ***this was not approved*** *under the bylaw standard. As a result, given that this is an advisory vote, the* ***Board will examine next steps*** *in light of these voting results (including the high number of abstentions)."* Welp, I guess the BOD "examined the next steps" and decided to go ahead and shovel $2 billion towards Elon anyway. On brand.

Not anymore. So much room to the upside for the SP!

First two I think are 2022.

I’m surprised there isn’t a huge rally for no good reason.

Tesla warranty fund decreased by $184 per vehicle produced from Q3 to Q4. Almost $100 million in "free" margin from the change.

From the 10-K: "As of December 31, 2025, total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $841 million. Of this amount, we expect to recognize $738 million in the next 12 months and the rest over the remaining performance obligation period. Changes in regulations on automotive regulatory credits may significantly impact our remaining performance obligations and revenue to be recognized under these contracts. In 2025, governmental and regulatory actions, such as OBBBA, have restricted certain regulatory credit programs tied to our products, contributing to the $3.84 billion decrease in our remaining performance obligations as of December 31, 2025 compared to December 31, 2024." Tesla reported $841M of contracted regulatory credits remaining. This is how that number has changed over 2025. 2025 Q1: $4.58B 2025 Q2: $3.47B 2025 Q3: $3.27B 2025 Q4: $0.84B Look out below.

Tesla's megapacks are using cells from Chinese battery companies. None of the cells are their own. Even the cells they use in the US, which AFAIK are now all LFP cells, come from China.

No wonder NMAC was throwing money at me to buy my two LEAFs last decade LOL

Amazing Abundance and Universal High (not Basic) Income These are real phrases he used.

Well the pump failed. I hereby declare TSLA short season to now be open. Be careful out there. Generally it does not last past Q1 call.

The Branch Elonian who has dedicated 5 days of his life simply to try to hail a "driverless" / "unsupervised" robotaxi is up to 57 attempts. He has been unsuccessful 57 times.

there was afterhours

Burned myself twice on shorting. Several years ago. Maybe it's time for a repeat, lol. Remember, if you lose all, you can comfort yourself with having done the morally right thing. Like defending Poland in 1939.

That's why I call it short season. He always manages to recover for some reason. But I think this time it is actually going to be different. We will see. Trump could announce another lawn sale.

He says he will keep trying until he leaves on Friday (tomorrow.) He has spent over a week looking for an unsupervised ride. In one of his videos a Waymo drove by. Someone said in the comments they saw an unsupervised vehicle, he was like “where?” And they told him it was a Waymo. lol It’s funny how the fanboys overlook actual unsupervised robotaxis because they want a Tesla.

Tesla down over 2% right now. In spite of it being up afterhours after earnings, it looks like reality is starting to set in.

Correct. Hiking prices is a direct reflection of cutting supply, based on simple supply and demand dynamics. Hiking prices reduces demand, so unless they also cut supply in conjunction, they'd have been left with a significant increase in inventory. I checked their model S and X inventory yesterday, and they seemed to have plenty around the US. Oddly enough, they barely have any Cybertruck inventory at all. They've may have significantly cut production, and/or they potentially shipped most of their excess inventory overseas to South Korea and the Middle East... which seem to be the only other regions Tesla is currently selling these trucks in, outside of North America / Mexico. Speaking of Mexico, I wonder what the drug cartels think of these trucks, and how the police feel about the drug cartels having them. It's also possible that SpaceX and xAI are buying up a lot more of these vehicles than Musk has let on.

Folks, he's done it. 58 was the magic number, apparently.

This is why my OTM puts are March - May. For the price I paid they should be LEAPS, but I am teh stupid

*SPACEX IN MERGER TALKS WITH XAI AHEAD OF PLANNED IPO: REUTERS

Elon really wants to offload his Twitter buyout on as many people as possible. First on xAI investors, now on SpaceX investors and soon to people participating in the IPO. - Remember when Elon said he wants to take everything private, even Tesla? I wonder why he is actually going in the directly opposite direction!!

So Tesla will just make cars and robots, and Space X and XAI merge so spaceX and Twitter are under the same umbrella.

What are you’ll takes on Tesla fanbois claiming Austin Robotaxis are now available without a chase car ? What kind of fraud is he running ?

Tesla's robotaxi event on the movie lot 18 months ago didn't have chase cars either. Safety drivers can keep an eye on the cameras from a distance. In June, TSLA posted a photo of the "command center" - lots of computers, and at least one steering wheel was visible. The cars are obviously being watched constantly - its not a huge stretch to think the "oh shit" lever has been made remote.

"Made the whole week worth it & then some"

Musk is teasing a SpaceX IPO at an absurd $1.5 trillion valuation. That bolus of cash will let him circulate dollars among his companies and create an illusion of success for half a decade.

From Reuters: # "Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX in merger talks with xAI ahead of planned IPO, source says Under the proposed merger, shares of xAI would be exchanged for shares in SpaceX." My head hurts.

This definitely has nothing to do with Tesla's purchase of xAI shares yesterday

It's so obvious what is going on. xAI is a cash inferno and there was an emergency raise just a couple weeks ago. As part of this, Tesla "invested" in xAI despite not having board or shareholder approval....although technically given the amount not needed as per SEC. Anyways, clearly xAI needs many hundreds of billions more to "learn the truth of the universe" as Elon says....you can't really merge with Tesla, but SpaceX IPO will be the ultimate grift and absolves xAI need for cash raises....for awhile anyways. This is SolarCity 2.0

So he is talking to himself now? Is he fucking boofing Ketamine?

Now with Nazis and CASM!

I'm sure he has senior officers of both companies doing the negotiation, acting in good faith...or not.

Its a money saving glitch - all Cybertrucks sold will get wrecked or shot up by Incel Elonians long before the waranty expires.

LOL come on It's an endless ouroboros of Musking

Large grid scale projects are what's driving most of the growth and the higher margins too. Energy was at like a 10% gross margin back in 2023 off their power wall and solar products. I think even in the best case scenario competition is going to eat them alive over time too since there's very little moat in creating a massive battery in a box and long term support and serviceability has never been a strong point for Tesla but something that would absolutely be crucial to maintain in this specific industry and application.

Man if I was invested in SpaceX I would be PISSED at this. Taking one of the hottest, most desired companies on the planet set for a massive IPO and merging it with a money furnace is just a terrible idea for everyone involved who isn't Musk or doesn't already own a huge number of xAI shares. That's who's catering to though and exactly what he did with Twitter. Social media company in the dumpster? Don't worry we'll merge with my hot new AI startup. Hot AI startup burning shitloads of money with nothing to show for it? Don't worry we'll merge it with my incredibly popular space launch company. Oh you aren't invested in Twitter or xAI and don't care if they burn to the ground? Well fuck you I guess, all my buddies are and we have voting control of enough shares to do it anyways and Texas law sure isn't going to stop us or care about your minority shareholder rights (Delaware either at this point). This is probably worse than the Solar City merger simply because xAI and Twitter are both projects he's personally invested in won't shut down. Plus the valuation on the combined xAI+Twitter mess of a company is likely to once again end up grossly inflated so SpaceX will definitely be overpaying for the shares by a huge amount.

Ford and GM are converting BEV infrasttructure to battery storage - GM already offers a Powerwall clone called "Powerbank". And all the big names in cells are starting to build the "box". It will get very crowded.

*ELON MUSK’S SPACEX IS SAID TO CONSIDER MERGER WITH TESLA OR XAI new one

But space data centers or something

Tesla up over 3% after hours on this fake news. \_\_\_ The timing of this right now is pretty interesting. Over the last few days, I've been pointing out across multiple Tesla subs the possible grift Musk may be trying to pull off by having Tesla purchase xAI in an all shares sale. By doing so, he'd retain the value of his 58% stake in xAI, AND it would net him a MUCH larger ownership stake in Tesla, making it nearly impossible to out vote him. However, if he did so now, it would be like transferring his over $200 billion worth of xAI into the same value in Tesla stock. If he waited to buy xAI until after Tesla shares temporarily corrected much lower, say about 50% (like they did last year), and then after the purchase he re-inflated Tesla's share price back to where it is today, the value from those xAI shares would double, netting Musk an additional $200+ billion, and likely put him over the $1 trillion net worth mark. Could my pointing out his exact strategy have influenced Musk to change course? Probably not, but it would be hilarious if it was! \_\_\_\_ Now that SpaceX is getting involved, what's his plan, to have a bidding war between SpaceX and Tesla... both companies owned by him, having a war to buy another company owned by him? lol...wtf... I imagine that's breaking some sort of law... but who cares, Musk bought himself a POTUS! What's the goal, to use the bidding war to hyperinflate xAI's value even more than it already is, such that whichever company buys xAI will have to give Musk an INSANE amount of shares for his 58% xAI stake, removing the need for temporarily tanking one of his companies' market caps? Alternatively, it's possible he's just doing a whole sail switch to use SpaceX instead of Tesla in the grift. One's as good as the other I guess. Musk owns both! \_\_\_ Remember y'all... Musk thinks of life as a video game... In the game Starcraft 2... there's something called "overmicroing", where you're attempting to make minor adjustments to your troops during a fight to maximize their performance, but if you over do it, you could end up making their performance worse, causing you to lose the fight. This whole SpaceX, Tesla, xAI thing is giving off some serious overmicroing vibes right now.

I think for anyone invested in any Musk company, there's a tacit acknowledgement that the entire house of cards collapses, unless Musk can keep circulating the grift. IE, if xAI goes down in flames, so does the aura of Musk...and people suddenly realize that SpaceX isn't a "growth" company, and its not really worth $1.5 trillion. They're kinda stuck with having to go along.

Yeah that was a big theory of how the Solar City merger got approved in the first place too. People felt that the cost of eating Solar City's losses was worth it to keep Musk's 'halo' intact. In general the fact that his companies are completely divorced from their fundamentals and more tied to fantastic future problems and his perceived ability to deliver them means that they all come crashing down if there's ever wide acceptance that he's actually full of shit and can't deliver. I think there's some logic in that, but the problem with xAI and Twitter is just that they're going to be a massive ongoing expense. Twitter exists as Musk's personal means of waging his culture war and promoting his Great Replacement Theory rhetoric and xAI is there largely as an ongoing middle finger to Sam Altman for opposing his effort to have Tesla swallow OpenAI whole years ago. Effectively it's a very big blank check for his personal projects that have zero potential benefit to SpaceX's business. I mean even with Tesla and Solar City you could kind of argue that being to connect Tesla's customers with solar installs and energy storage products had some kind of benefit but that just doesn't exist here and the only common denominator is the Musk and his cadre of investor friends having interests in both companies.

The rumors are SpaceX will look to raise $50 billion with its IPO later this year...that's more than triple the money SpaceX has ever raised to date...and their expenses never really go up. Its a steady cadence of 30ish launches for external customers, plus the allegedly profitable starlink launches. NASA pays for Starship Data Collection efforts. So I don't even know what SpaceX could even do with $50 billion, other than shovel it into Elon's Xai furnace. And the last SpaceX raise was at $800b valuation...rumors are they'll float a $1.5 trillion valuation for the IPO. So all the initial investors stand to double their money. All they have to do is play along.

I'm continually amazed people think he's some kind of genius given the number of stupid mad libs style ideas he's proposed over the years. Hyperloop was stupid and TBC never made any economic sense but the whole space data center is such a ridiculously terrible idea that anyone with a half brain should realize he's a fraud and completely full of shit by hearing it.

Yes! Haha, yes! Take Tesla, on the verge of net losses and whose net income has been declining the last few years, and attach it to a cash incinerating money loser. What could go wrong!

Well that's assuming they get that $1.5T number after they attach this massive dead weight to it. Lots of the hype around SpaceX is as a pure play on its launch services and Starlink. Another big thing about an IPO is it would be mean opening the books, at least to some degree, and showing profitability and capex for the combined company. Even if you assume it was worth giving xAI $50B to keep Musk happy for the IPO there's a ton of better ways to do it that are safer for SpaceX shareholders. You could do what he did with Tesla and just spend some fixed number of dollars making an equity investment afterwards. You could do what they should have done if they wanted to build the Solar Roof with Solar City and just form a joint venture that would own the Buffalo factory and insulate Tesla shareholders from Solar City's liabilities and in the event of failure given them access to assets that supposedly had value to Tesla as a company. Ultimately almost none of that matters though because Musk likely has the votes between himself and other investors who have positions in both SpaceX and xAI to push the deal through regardless.

Well that's it. Teasing a merger with SpaceX was literally Musk's trump card to support or boost Tesla's stock price. He's pretty much out of bullets at this point.

Admittedly, I have no idea how they'll find enough VC idiots to dump $50 billion on SpaceX, but I have no doubt they will.

Government bailout incoming

I absolutely think Musk is up to some stock pumping shenanigans, but I’m not sure what. A straightforward merger or share for share exchange with Space X issuing new shares to merge Tesla into Space X as part of an IPO would be one obvious way. The shares issued by Space X might have limited or no voting rights which I believe would resemble the situation for Meta today and would give complete reign to Musk to fiddle abut and the combined companies would have the benefit of synergistic bullshit manufacture as It’s not just about the robots and it’s not just about the spaceships. It’s about the robots and the spaceships. So much more opportunity for various types of rehashing old SF novels for incel teenage shareholders. But would be interested to hear analysis of his share pumping schemes outside this.

A few 7 year Elonversaries tomorrow: *"So we're not -- we're going to be able to stock in all common parts at the service centers, so that it's possible to -- and first, we'll have --* ***get your car serviced in*** *20 minutes or 15 minutes, even if it's a simple matter. I mean, it should be like Jiffy Lube, like* ***eight minutes*** *or whatever, 8.5."* \- Jiffy Gypper, Jan 30, 2019 *"Also, it's going to make sense for our service centers to do basic* ***body work*** *or essentially if \[Inaudible\] replaced a front or rear \[Inaudible\], it makes sense to just prestock the front and rear \[Inaudible\] in the common colors. So, unless you have an unusual color, we can literally replace your \[Inaudible\]* ***in 15, 20 minutes****."* \- Mumbling Mis-representer, Jan 30, 2019 *"When will we think it's safe for* ***full self-driving****? It's probably toward the end of* ***this year****, and then it's up to regulators to decide when they want to approve that."* \- Freemont Falsifier, Jan 30, 2019

I can’t stop laughing at the idiocy of that one. “Space is cold!  good luck shedding the heat of a dc up there elmo.

But Tesla HVAC! It's all coming together.

Remember the everything app and how none of that happened? So much vaporware, so little time.

I wish us all luck

Still no roadster huh?

Tesla is the SPAC vehicle for SpaceX and oracle is the SPAC for openai

Does anyone remember the details is the new compensation plan?  I thought there was something in there that would allow the board to make up new operational goals in case of a merger or something.  I feel like we're on the verge of a Musking.

Today's 7 year Elonversaries: *"This has the potential to* ***save millions of lives****, tens of millions of serious public injuries and give people their time back, so that they don't have to drive, they can -- if you're on the road, you can spend time doing things that you enjoy instead of being in terrible traffic."* \- Sanctimonious Savior, Jan 30, 2019 *"We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is* ***safe for FSD****, probably towards the end of* ***this year*** *then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."* \- Sandy's Favorite Swindler, Jan 30, 2019 *"The next thing we want to add is if a car detects something wrong - like a flat tire or a drive unit failure - that* ***before the car has even come to a halt, there's a tow truck and service loaner on the way.****"* Hustlin Horse Gifter, Jan 30, 2019

There's also the minor detail of powering it. Or maintaining it. But hey, I've never landed a rocket or tried to save humanity, so what do I know.

>anyone with a half brain should realize he's a fraud I think we crossed that threshold a long time ago with intercontinental rocket travel or his million person Mars colony.

Step 1: Build robots that can do useful human work and replace jobs Step 2: Profit! Step 3: Growing unemployment Step 4: Consumerism among the masses collapses - people can't afford to buy what the robots are producing. Step 5: Business owners realize that they can't profit if nobody can buy the stuff they are selling. Step 6: ?????? Step 7: Universal High Income! Abundance for all! Profit/motivation for businesses to keep producing robots and goods! Through a combination of printing money, taxing businesses, and mastering inflation, governments can provide for all that Universal High Income and all the usual goods and services, with zero consequences or objections from anybody. Step 8: Robots can build robots, and everybody can afford robots too! How has not a single WS analyst asked about Step 6?

That baseballs.

None of this makes sense. The use cases I keep hearing are "walk your dog". "water your flowers". "mow your lawn"...I guess that would give people more time to doom scroll, but I fail to see where the leap to "abundance" happens. The fact of the matter is we already benefit from robots every day, in every aspect of manufacturing and shipping. The only "market" left is in our homes...but so what if a robot can do the vacuuming? Does Musk think we'll all save enough on maid service to buy vacation homes?

Musk has to be scared with this merger talk. The shell game can go on only so long.

Those are ridiculous, but for something that's popular enough in the media where I feel like your average person who doesn't have a background in engineering and science might be predisposed to think they're viable and we'll get there someday to begin with. Meanwhile a lot of people don't have a positive view of data centers in general, are aware of how much energy they use and how large they are. Claiming they need to be shot into space, for efficiency purposes of all reasons might just be enough to raise an eyebrow or two among John Q. Public.

All good points. And really, if I go to other Tesla centric subs, practically nobody believes his schtick anymore...they just seem to know they're stuck with his antics. But you're right - we instinctively know that a data center is a monster building filled with electronics. Maybe it will be the "Grift too Far". Out of curiosity, I went on Google Maps to look at a data center. Its huge of course. But what I was looking for is parking spaces - I wasn't disappointed. There's around 220 parking stalls, and half are being used in the photo. What the hell do Branch Elonians think those parking stalls are for? Its almost as if data centers require constant maintenance. But sure, put it in space.

Ah shit here we go again

Step 6: Build army of ai bots to keep population under control and guard the billionaires

I'm sure there's some reasoning about how we've had satellites operating in orbit for decades without issue or something but they're also built to totally different standards and often assembled in clean rooms facilitate that, which again just can't be cheap.

Whole market down - TSLA +5% on vibes. I feel like the only way the stock will be brought back to reality is when the larger AI bubble pops. Until then people just don't care about fundamentals or critical thinking.

As I'm writing this, TSLA has now a PE ratio of 406. Don't worry though, it will get much higher after Q1 earnings. The PE ratio will definitely hit 1000 this year, as earnings trend towards 0. Fun fact: the combined SpaceX / Tesla / xAI entity would be a 4.5T company (the size of Nvidia) with 100B in revenue and -6B in earnings (negative!). Meanwhile Nvidia has 213B in revenue and 110B in earnings.

Jason DeBolt [says](https://xcancel.com/jasondebolt/status/2017088603390926911) he would prefer Tesla and SpaceX to merge rather than for SpaceX to ipo. Why? He thinks a lot of people will sell their $tsla to buy SpaceX, and that could cause $tsla to go down. And he might be right. I think he has said before that he is basically all in on $tsla on margin. And he’d want to buy SpaceX at ipo but he’d have to sell Tesla to do so. Others might be in a similar situation. I think Stephan Mark Ryan said his portfolio is 90% Tesla and he’d likely want to buy SpaceX. So some fanboys have this dilemma and they’d rather have a merger. Also Jason DeBolt thinks the combined company could easily achieve a $100 trillion market cap. Which is over 3 times the United States GDP. lol

Like I don't know who realizes this but combining different companies together on paper doesn't make them lose less money. SpaceX is not at a level of profitability and growth where it would make the combined entity attractive. It's barely profitable and Starlink is staring to stall. Elon's empire is loss making, even after taking in 40+ billions of dollars of taxpayer subsidies. You can't merge your way around that.

But even if they were durable enough to last forever, don't servers become obsolete rapidly? I imagine a data center has a constant cadence of server replacement going on.

[https://nitter.net/garyblack00/status/2017273420862697900](https://nitter.net/garyblack00/status/2017273420862697900) Gary thinks TSLA is trading at a 200 P/E lol

> SpadeX :)

New Epstein drop: >Donald Trump, the president, had parties at Maralago called 'calendar girls' Jeffrey Epstein would bring the children in and trump would auction them off. He measured the children's vulva and vaginas by entering a finger and rated the children on tightness. The guests were elder men and included **Elon Musk**. Don jr. Trump. Ivanka Trump, and Eric Trump were there. Attorney Allan Dershowitz was also there with Attorney Bob Shapiro. We were taken in rooms. forced to give oral sex to Donald J Trump. Forced to allow them to penetrate us. I was 13 years old when Donald J Trump raped me. Ghislaine Maxwell was also present. Guess that's how he "knew" Trump was in the files...

His first wife said that he visited Epstein a lot and was always giddy about it. Now we have proof.

\> Also Jason DeBolt thinks the combined company could easily achieve a $100 trillion market cap. Fcking short. $100000 quintillion market cap or nothing!

How do they account for all of the money the burn launching Starlink satellites?

Trump's or Elon's? Source?

Fixed it lol

[https://nitter.net/Tslachan/status/2017297962301305272](https://nitter.net/Tslachan/status/2017297962301305272) A new challenger has emerged for biggest fucking loser trolling around Austin to find an "unsupervised" Tesla robotaxi. This dude came all the way from Korea (!) and is 0 for 9.

They do, I think usually around 6 years or so is about when you would expect it to get replaced because newer hardware ends up being much more energy efficient and for stuff like GPUs usually adds additional capabilities that are valuable too. It just ends up making far more sense to run newer more capable hardware in the same supporting infrastructure.

>Elon Musk doing lunch at SpaceX with Epstein in 2013, and getting picked up by a helicopter to visit Epstein in St. Bart's. [1](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kqiwi5amvyhaanx4mvfrf6ft/bafkreiho7i4mim6oi6ug44wlwxsqlitzu6tsc2onymqti3eet66ezxcrii@jpeg) [2](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kqiwi5amvyhaanx4mvfrf6ft/bafkreigvnxlgyfki4txpuye45s7z4kh2h4q6vutxpzr3uvz6akdorrkc2u@jpeg) >Elon Musk coordinating his visits to Jeffery Epstein's rape island. [3](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kqiwi5amvyhaanx4mvfrf6ft/bafkreib37hii7ibhdcmz3uhbu4h6tar6npvy5m7nswd5vgqv7xmv5qt2ie@jpeg) >Elon Musk to island, 2014 [4](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_7v8_OWQAM6PbU?format=jpg&name=large) - >He previously (falsely) claimed that Epstein "tried to get me to his island but I refused". [5](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_7sEGLXwAAsBf0?format=jpg&name=900x900) - >FBI report, citing a confidential human source released in the final batch of Epstein files, claims "Trump has been compromised by Israel." [6](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_79gvSX0AAvyep?format=jpg&name=large)

Well you see once the other Epstein list guy is in the fed the money printer will produce endless abundance so the new GDP will be $500 Trillion dollars. Also a loaf of bread will be $600K.

Remember friends after every pump day like today the puts for the Q1 clown show get cheaper!

He's now 0 for 11.

He could’ve gotten a Waymo on the first try.

P/E ratio 400.23

Like 2x the market cap of the entire S&P 500. In their world I guess TeSplaceX is the only thing anyone on the planet invests in.

I am shocked, shocked that Musk is in the Epstein files a bunch and lied about it. I'm sure they found him extremely annoying even then. Kimbal probably had to pull some strings to get him also invited.

Arrest and deport Musk. The people behind these crimes all need to be held to justice

Now there's a winning platform for Ds to run on.

Insane levels of projection when he accused Vernon Unsworth of being a pedo.

Wonder how many kids he really has 🤮

The fact that nvidia and Tesla make up like 12% of SPY makes me want to divest in US stocks completely

Remember when Elon called that British cave diver a "pedo guy"? Well turns out Elon went "partying" on Epstein's island multiple times. His own communications show he went there specifically for "the girls". Always projection

Pedo is South African slang for good buddy

I thought tallulah was the normal one but she’s all over the Epstein files EDIT whoops was thinking of Justine

Anyone who marries Elon twice is disqualified from normal. Justine appears to be just lovely.

Tallulah was the crazy wife. She was the one who ordered Musk to buy Twitter to crush woke.

Not a single tweet all day about Epstein. It's either tweets praising himself, anti-black racism, or tweets calling Anthropic woke. He commented "terrible" under a story about a young Afgan girl being raped. Amazing.

6 year Elonversary tomorrow: *"There is considerable conflation of diagnosis & contraction of “corona”. Actual virality is much lower than it would seem. I think this will turn out to be comparable to other forms of influenza. World War Z it is not."* \- TechnoDoctor, Jan 31, 2020

Not enough people talking about elon musk being in the epstein files

I think it’s obvious, whoever reports on it will have their career destroyed and possibly their life will be at risk. Based on how far these people are willing to go to cover things up

Anybody see the Elon-Epstein emails, where Elon was begging to visit the Island? I mean, Elon being hell-bent on propagating his genes as much as possible should have been the first clue. His accusation of Trump was classic projection. He needs to be arrested.

yeah, the thing has been suppressed !

It was Xmas morning when he sent the one email! What a father.

And does he know what 'conflation' means? Looking at that sentence structure, I doubt it.

You're back ...

7 year Elonversary: *"It’s (Starship) designed for 100 people on a Mars journey. The ship must be easy to repair on the moon and Mars."* \- Galactic Grifter, Jan 31, 2019 Current Status: Data Collection. SpaceX has sent zero people on a "Starship", and the most successful Starship to date has made it 0.00035% of the way to Mars. In totally unrelated news, 70 days later SpaceX did a half $billion capital raise.

“Pedo guy” hits a little differently now

After spending a day pretending there was no news about the files, he's now trying to spin himself as the hero who got the Epstein files released.

Probably a bit difficult to discuss the topic in Twitter, where most of the public discourse today seems to happen.

Lmaooo for YEARS this subreddit claimed Elon Musk and Epstein had a thing. > https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/s/KEKC3FU2Cv > https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/s/9nyxQnTSGj > https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/s/3IaKHTKFVe

Oh yeah, it’s crazy to finally see it come to light. That Business Insider Kimball Musk story came out like five years ago.

Apparently the infamous ghislaine photobomb was a few months after these emails too

Musk sycophants are insane. Not a single one expressed any concerns with Elon begging to go to pedo island. What's more shocking they tweet in support saying how amazing he is. There is not a single person in the world I would still support after knowing they were begging to go to a pedo island. It's crazy. I thought they were just delusional but they are actually disgusting human beings. They also claim that what was released somehow proves he never went to the island. They do not such thing, this are not all the epstein files that exist and nowhere in there anyone claims he never went there. Only that on one specific occasion he didn't. They were obviously in very friendly relations. too friendly to only know each other in passing.

He could murder their first born child and they'd rationalize it. It's an actual cult.

I had lunch today and the people seated next to me worked at a Christian school. They were praising ICE and Trump. One of them mentioned seeing protesters in front of a nearby Tesla store and the discussion immediately pivoted to paid protesters.

🎵 Everybody was Kung Fu fighting 🎵

They're paid, yet the crack team of feds just can't ever seem to follow the money. The cope is crazy on some people. If only someone was paying me to post about pedo guy.

Elon Musk is a pedophile and he needs to face justice.

Kimbal Musk's Plant a Seed Day has new meaning

It would be hilarious to start reading Matthew 25 out loud in a situation like that.

The WhatsinsideFamily youtuber and another Elongelical accidentally stumbled upon two real life Cybercabs in the wild, at a supercharger. Gasp! What an unforeseen coincidence. A pair of Tesla influencers are just hanging out together in a Target parking lot, and out of nowhere two TSLA employees drive up in Cybercabs. They were understandably very, very excited for this completely unplanned event. A few things I noticed: There were drivers. Said drivers had to get out and plug in the cars. Further cementing the reality that no "snake charger" was ready to charge this car, the "Cybercab" uniquely has a rubber weather cap covering the charge port. The door to the charge port is not powered - again, not automated or set up for automation. The wheels were not covered in gold Krylon. Obviously, there is a steering wheel. Oddly there are wipers. Contrary to what was shown at the robo-reveal, the doors are not motorized. They did not "robo" in and out of the supercharger stall - the drivers were driving it like a normal car.

The Elon Defence Forces , like Ian Miles Cheong, have been hard at work. Elon has been defending himself, not too convincingly in my opinion. He reiterated the claim that Epstein invited him to come to his island but he refused. This is in spite of the fact that there are clear emails from him to Epstein asking to go to the island. He even asked which night would have the wildest party. At one point Epstein said he’d send a helicopter to pick Elon up. But Elon’s main defense seems to be that he pushed hard (as he says harder than anyone lol) to release the files, so he can’t be guilty. And he just again [called for Epstein’s clients to be arrested.](https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2017789172380275023). He still believes he can foster the image of himself as the hero fighting against the pedophiles.

This is how little respect Elon has for his followers: his latest strategy to distract from the evidence that he was partying multiple times on Epstein's island is to go to Twitter to say things like "these evil Epstein clients need to be prosecuted" Yes they do, and you first of all. Imagine thinking this is going to fool anyone

Red Alert! The Branch Elonian who finally got an "unsupervised" robo-ride after 58 failed attempts has now scored his 2nd "unsupervised" ride in a row! In totally unrelated news, after these completely random events, he then headed off for a personal tour of Tesla's Austin factory.

It’s simple - he wasn’t his client - he was his buddy and getting a freebies.

Yeah exactly. He thinks he can say “look I claim to want the Epstein clients prosecuted so I can’t be guilty” and everyone will fall for that. A few will fall for it but most won’t.

The blatant lie of "I turned down his invites!" revealed to actually be his gross begging is indefensible really. Just slip it into the existing cognitive dissonance.

Have you won a Hugo Award for writing? Has your book been published by a major publisher and featured in the NY Times book review? Have you produced two feature films distributed by a major studio? Have you won an Academy Award or Emmy? If you've done at least two of those, then congrats! You are qualified to [apply to xAI](https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/xai/jobs/5017529007), the world's premier AI for pedophile films and erotic fiction. - $40 an hour. Medical benefits not guaranteed.

4 year Elonversary: Phase 1, the Associated Press reports on a TSLA recall for FSD rolling through stop signs. Phase 2, the Mars Elongelical calls the AP writer a "moron" Phase 3: Technoking chimes in: *"He’s actually a lobbyist, not a journalist. There are many who pose as the latter while behaving like the former.* ***No integrity****. Indeed, there were* ***no safety issues****. The car simply slowed to \~****2 mph*** *& continued forward if clear view with no cars or pedestrians."* No integrity!!! Indeed! Welp, thankfully I can just go ahead and look at NHTSA's recall page. Turns out: Yes, there was a recall for this very item. From TSLA's Recall Report to NHTSA: *"A software functionality referred to as “rolling stop” allows the vehicle to travel through all-way-stop intersections at up to* ***5.6 mph*** *before coming to a complete stop....Entering an all-way-stop intersection without coming to a complete stop may* ***increase the risk*** *of collision."* Wait a minute - TSLA reported this safety recall to NHTSA, but the Griftoking says there were "no safety issues"? And TSLA themselves reported a speed almost triple what Elon said? What gives? Continuing my quest. Lets look at the letter TSLA sent out to customers: *"This notice is sent to you in accordance with the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act.* ***Tesla, Inc. has decided that a defect****, which relates to motor vehicle* ***safety*** *exists in certain Model Year 2016-2022 Model S, Model X, 2017-2022 Model 3, and 2020-2022 Model Y vehicles...A software functionality referred to as “rolling stop” allows the vehicle to travel through all-way-stop intersections at up to* ***5.6 mph*** *before coming to a complete stop, if certain conditions are first met...without coming to a complete stop may* ***increase the risk*** *of collision."* Well, there you have it!!! NHTSA has turned TSLA's own staff against Elon, and they're all lying about this being a safety problem. Have Some Integrity!

As an aside, late 2021 to early 2022 brought an absurd number of recalls in rapid succession, thanks to TSLA's janky hurried development processes. Oct 21, 2021: Front Suspension Lateral Link May Separate Oct 29, 2021: Unexpected Activation of Automatic Emergency Brake Nov 21, 2022: Suspension Knuckles May Fracture Jan 27, 2022: Vehicle May Fail to Stop at Stop Sign Feb 1, 2022: Seat Belt Chime May Not Activate/FMVSS 208 Feb 2, 2022: Windshield May Not Defrost Properly/FMVSS 103 Feb 4, 2022: Pedestrian Warning Sound May Be Obscured/FMVSS 141

Did the puffery pedo tell a LIE?!?!  I’m shocked, I tell you!

it's been a very controlled release, too. No doubt Elon went back to kiss the orange hand to make sure where he was in it.

Elon's trying to get NASA to pay for his Mars ship by repurposing it for a lunar lander role.

> Hourly pay is just one part of our total rewards package at xAI. Amazing

>Using [Yahoo Scout](https://scout.yahoo.com/) AI (below), you can see the main drivers of Tesla's future valuation... Where are all the turnip trucks these idiots fall off of?

He's faced pretty much zero consequences for bullshitting and making ridiculous lies for upwards of a decade. I mean he literally committed securities fraud by fabricating a buyout offer that never existed. Doubled and trippled down on it. Tried to retroactively set one up after the fact and when the SEC finally offered him a settlement he rejected it initially and didn't take the offer until they filed charges and threatened to have him barred from ever serving as an officer in a public company again. Hell even after accepting the settlement he continues to lie about it, maintain that the buyout offer was real all along and that the only reasoned he signed it because some unnamed cartel of banks threatened to cancel Tesla's credit lines if he didn't. That's on top of bullshitting about FSD being done in a year for the last 13 years too. Getting on stage with Trump, claiming he could slash $2T from the budget, failing very publicly and then going on Joe Rogan months later and claiming it was someone else fault and that if he could actually halve the US budget. This is his MO, literally to lie about stuff constantly, defame anyone who competes or disagrees and suffer no real consequences for it until fairly recently. He lives his life based on what pops up in his Twitter feed which is devoid of criticism and full of fan boys who will glaze him endlessly for clout and ridiculous right wing conspiracy theories that tell him every fact or observation that doesn't agree with his world view is a paid agent or evil vampire person just living off government funding and benefits that flat out don't exist in the first place. At this point he'll literally drug himself to the point where he can't feel unhappy or anxious about anything too which has warped his perspective even further. He's been divorced from all the negative aspects of the human experience at this point and fried himself to the point where it's all just some game where the rules don't *really* apply to him and never will because everyone else is just as guilty in his mind.

Some of the cheaper Chinese EVs - cheaper than Model 3 and Y in China - are starting to feature LIDAR in addition to cameras, radar and ultrasonic sensors. Tesla's entire autonomous driving valuation is based on a vision only system being both technically equivalent (or better) and dramatically cheaper. Obviously Tesla is far from demonstrating the former but even if they do it won't matter without the latter. Which they're getting very close to losing forever. I don't know how so many analysts continue to be completely oblivious to this. Are they all still buying into this idea that Tesla can achieve level 5 where the others can only ever achieve level 4 because of some "massive data advantage" or whatever?

Wondered why i get so many Model 3 videos in my youtube suggestions, well seems like the referral program is back and all the fanboys are redoing their "Model 3 best car ever" videos to grab some of that money.

I do a flyby when i can. Real life is busy :)