What's the future of Tesla?

nothings gonna change... too much money in the market, too many people have backed him, it requires too many self important people to be humble

They still have plenty of cash on hand from selling their own stock at the peak. So I actually think they can keep the company afloat for a long time while burning through their cash pile.

Yep.  Basic example: Cathie Wood is not stupid. She knows that the bubble made pop some time ago and that all her sky high valuations for Tesla turned into funny memes, but as her company is so heavily invested in Tesla there is no other way for her but to try to further push and support the stock like there is no tomorrow. It‘s a house of cards but I am not sure it will ever implode.

Yeah could keep it afloat but not at these valuations?

You mean even if retail investors eventually bail due to failed promises, institutional investors will buy the dip to keep the stock high so that they don't book a loss? I believe the problem is as Tesla is now part of S&P 500 any retail investors putting their money in index funds will automatically be buying Tesla stock at current valuation and keep this charade going.

I think a lot of European Investors will be looking at US investments in a different way after this, I'm pretty certain the Norwegian Sovereign fund will reduce its stake in Tesla.

Do you see a catalyst to force selling? The stock is basically flat since the 2021 peak and it’s negative accounting for inflation. But the Tesla fanboys never seem to get tired of Elon’s endless stream of empty promises.

The problem is deeper. It’s not just about realizing that the promises were hype. It’s also about betting that most other investors will also sell. If everyone knows it’s hype (and I would say most people do) but the line still goes up because it’s a meme stock, then you have an incentive not to sell because you will fail to make profit off the meme. At this point I think most investors hold because they think everyone else will hold.

If it will not implode, then is it house of cards?

Elon did say most of Twitter was bots... I wonder how many Grok runs

Things change in markets inevitably.

Summary - A car company that struggles to sell cars in a market with fair winds.. Musk promised 20m per year car sales by 2030 but this appears to be impossible to do as the company has lost traction past 2 years and sales are below 2m units annually. FSD is good idea as a safety enhancer innovation , but 1) faces legal restrictions for commercial deployment around the world and 2) if people don't buy tesla cars in the first, the FSD loses its appeal. So tesla needs to rebrand to a tech company that has a division making cars. How you can value such a company? Only based on future expectations and irrationality.

There is no "figuring out" FSD... Without Tesla reengineering it to include other sensors, it will never be able to be "solved". There can be 1,000,000 "success" stories about FSD working as intended but all it will take is 1 death to discredit every single success story, because it isn't about proving the system works, it is about proving a negative (that the system is safe) and you can never prove a negative. You can show how safe the system is until the point that the system fails.

Liberal urban "progressives" talk a good talk, but they're fine with exploiting borderline slave labour so long as they get their Deliveroo/Uber-eats skinny latte hand delivered to their desk. Just like they care about the environment just so long as it's someone else causing all the issues & picking up the tab and they can still get cheap air travel. What makes you think they'd be any different when it comes to Musk and his robocabs? They won't care if they put people just like them out of work or are unsafe to be on the roads. If it makes their lives even a tiny smidgen more convenient they'll cream all over it. --- It's never going to work as advertised though, so the point is moot.

Would rather choke on hot lava than ever step inside a Tesla willingly

Simps will simp for Tesla down to their last dollar. Musk will never fail at being a charlatan. The more outrageous the claim the more he is worshipped.

We’ll see the downturn in a couple of months. Just check the EU-EVs Tesla YoY chart. Not all January 2026 figures are in yet, but European registrations already look pretty weak—compare them with January 2025 and January 2024. https://www.eu-evs.com/groupCharts/TESLA/ALL/YoY-Chart

No. Musk benefits from massive American corruption particularly with trump in power

Worse than a charlatan, a criminal whose cars are responsible for multiple cases of manslaughter

Every house of cards implodes eventually. Wile E. Coyote can't keep running forever once he's over the cliff, gravity always wins in the end.

Agreed. The stock isn't a 'real' stock anymore at this point. It's a speculative investment, it's like bitcoin in a way, it's not tethered directly to any actual value behind the scenes. All the investors are buying/selling based on looking at whether other investors will buys/sell and be sucked into Musk's lies about the future. The numbers have been bad for a while now, and the stock still sets new highs. You don't sell based on bad quarterly results anymore, you sell based on everyone else - the same way we invest in bitcoin. The only way that ever changes is if Tesla *completely* fails, rather than just limps along as a middling car company. But as long as the company still exists in some form, the stock will still continue to be pumped up.

my prediction 1. more lies 2. fsd will not work 3. cybercab will not be in cities 4. robot may get a new actor with better dance moves 5. lots more lies and salutes

Musk isn’t going to “figure out FSD.” Musk doesn’t do anything except set unrealistic goals, constraints, and deadlines on his engineering teams and then fire them for either not delivering to his ridiculous demands or daring to tell him he’s talking shit.

Fail. Excepting the failed Cybertruck, the Tesla designs haven’t been updated, the S, 3, Y have gotten very minor cosmetic improvements, but every other automaker refreshes their products on average maybe every three years; the S is a 2012 design. And, the genius went all in on the loathsome Cybertruck, when the market was asking for—and still is—the less expensive mass-market BEV. He refuses to deliver what the market wants. As for FSD and robotaxis, Alphabet/Google is absolutely eating his lunch in multiple markets right now. He stubbornly refuses to implement LIDAR, which with Waymo is proven safe and reliable every day. And his taxis have neither steering wheels nor pedals, which makes less sense than no LIDAR. And, only two doors for a taxi, making them much less versatile than Waymo’s 4-doors. Waymo’s already got autonomous vans out there, too. To top it off, 2024’s stunt at Warner Bros Studios was a sham, as none of his prototypes operated autonomously, they ran pre-programmed routes. All sizzle and no steak. The Tesla advantage is mostly in the Supercharger network. The cars are mature but their build quality, while improved, is still, anecdotally, somewhat suspect. They lead because they’ve been doing it the longest. With Trump killing the EV tax credit, EV sales in general are down in America, just as Big Oil wants. Tesla may be the market leader, but his ego won’t let him deliver what the consumer/market wants.

Agree

[ Removed by Reddit ]

Yeah this is what bugs me the most: double standards for how earnings are treated by the markets. Yesterday NFLX beat but softened their guidance a bit and they sold it off hard. Why doesn't this happen to TSLA???

I’d like to preface this with: I’m an idiot on a iPhone, so this is not financial advice… It feels like the market is in a very weird spot right now… the wealthy “control” more wealth than they did in the gilded age… but it’s all paper wealth. Elon is worth a billions of dollars because Tesla is overvalued by such a huge amount… same can be said for the other billionaires… not that they aren’t massively wealthy without inflated stock values, just that a large percentage of their wealth is directly tied to insane stock price. It will be interesting to see what happens if the markets correct… it might be the first financial collapse in history that manages to fuck the extremely wealthy more than the average Joe… I’m almost rooting for it just to see what happens. How over leveraged is Elon? Let’s find out. (I’m aware that none of this may come to pass… but it could! Billions of dollars just wiped out of bank accounts as they have to unwind loans placed against assets that lost 90% of their value overnight)

the investors making money don't care if it's all hype. They know (or think they know) that they'll be able to jump ship when the time comes without losing all their profits. Unless things change Tesla will eventually collapse. The people with money do all they can to keep the gravy train going as long as possible though.

I don't pay enough attention to these things, but I thought I heard that SpaceX recently purchased about a thousand cybertrucks. Wouldn't that be a major warning sign for both companies?

So you're saying it's a financial death cult?

They always do.

I expect the S & P Index Committee will be keen to delete it as soon as their rules allow. They usually leave stocks in despite a few quarters of negative earnings but, in this case, I expect they can see it is ridiculously overvalued and will want it out before the inevitable twenty-times-bigger-than-Enron collapse. So, the catalyst I suggest that will force selling is as follows: earning turn negative, S & P de-index, people holding the stock because it is in the 500 sell.

Companies can just cease to exist. Look at Bethlehem Steel, for example. Or maybe more to the point, Enron. I have money in S&P funds and I can afford to take the loss when Tesla tanks. I looked at it again recently when I was upset about it being in the S&P 500. I was mostly annoyed that the funds are partially keeping Tesla afloat when the valuation is far too high.

\> What's the future of Tesla? Ultimately the bubble will burst and the stock will tank. Even if the company itself survives, it won't last long with Enron because his name attached to the company makes it a toxic brand that many now want nothing to do with. Without Enron, there may be a slight chance of it surviving but it would have to be a complete change of upper management with people who can actually run a business as a real business, not just a stock pump. Robotaxi is vaporware. Without working FSD, it will remain vaporware and that won't change until Wile Elon Coyote gives up on his lame idea of only usinig cameras. I expect his house of cards will collapse long before he changes his mind on that. No, there will be no new market for robotaxis, by any company, beyond displacing existing taxis/rideshare systems.

True it's The Greater Fool Theory in play. No investment is worth anything until it's cashed out. Ultimately the balloon is going to stretch to the point people start fearing it will pop, so it will burst. Those with enough sense to get out early or take short position will profit big while the rest will be left holding the bag. There may be a couple dead cat bounces on the way down but ultimately the stock will plummet, and it will be little more than a penny stock, possibly low enough to be delisted.

The ones with sense enough to jump ship first will likely be quants and other program traders who can identify the trend before everyone else, and those programs are what willl likely trigger a crash for TSLA. It's the small retail investors who will most likely get burned.

It's a cult. There's really no other explanation.

How would you know...they can sell the stock and you wont know a thing. This is just an inflated stock based on hopium.

They won't get fucked. If TSLA drops to a realistic level like $5/share, Felon is still a billionaire. Even if his number dropos below $1B, he has enough that he'll be living a life of luxury for the rest of his life. The same goes for the others. The biggest problem here is a lot of funds are "invested" in TSLA because of greedy fund managers trying to cash in on the hype. When it crashes a lot of peoples' pension funds are going to suffer.

In the late '90s the market hype was all about the internet and any company who could claim to be doing something with the internet was getting attention even though many had little to no earnings, leading to the [Dot.com](http://Dot.com) bubble. But it was a bubble and therefore was unsustainable so we saw the Dot-Bomb of 2000. Money doesn't just disappear, it spouts up somewhere else. In that case money went into the housing bubble, etc... Now we have not only the TSLA bubble but the "AI" bubble, both being stretched to the point where they could pop at any time now.

Maybe! I have an odd feeling they are way more leveraged than we know. All vibe based, but I believe there is a reality where they crash hard.

> I expect the S & P Index Committee will be keen to delete it as soon as their rules allow. They usually leave stocks in despite a few quarters of negative earnings but, in this case, I expect they can see it is ridiculously overvalued People here keep saying this, but I disagree because the S&P recently added CVNA without even waiting for the current SEC investigation to finish. Carvana is a [known fraud](https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/), run by a convicted fraudster and his son, with a PE of 108 when all they do is sell used cars and subprime loans.

That‘s a good analogy, although Tesla will never be „dead“, it would be scooped up.

The biggest problem with FSD beyond technical limitations is the fraud aspect, meaning just calling it "full self driving" when it's not. If they called it something reasonable like "driver assist" I don't see a problem since it's at least not leading people to false expectations.

Fanboys don't drive the stock. Large institutional investors do, and when they start selling, it will be the beginning of the end.

The best thing I've read lately is that musk promotes his shitty robots as having "autopilot grade" camera hardware. I actually laughed out loud when I read it. Cheap, low res hardware being bragged, ad if it has a good reputation.

Is this taking in to account what will happen to the petrodollar? If his shares are 5$ a share and the American dollar is now also worth nothing because of bond selloff, massive inflation and the rest of the world switching to gold instead of USD as a more stable currency i imagine that would leave him wanting.

how it would feel, if one gets killed because FSD did a mistake? would we call him an idiot - he deserved it. Assuming FSD becomes what it is \~ full self driving. Would you place your kids in the car, without a driver and send it for a ride????

I don't think they'll delete it for ethical reasons, I think they'll delete it because, if it is still in the Index when it collapses, it'll put a huge dent in their own numbers. It all depends how much they see it as possibly collapsing at any time, and how much they care about how that would affect their value. I posit if the answer to each is 'a lot' then they'll delete it asap, in practice shortly after first negative earnings reported.

We will all realise it shouldbevalued the same Alfa Romeo , quality is about on par.

Retail investors have been driving the stock for quite some time. Lots of Robinhood bros that keep buying every dip. It adds up. They refuse to sell. He's trying to build hype before a bad earnings report...talking up driverless model y cabs, 100 days from building cyber cabs, and Optimus robots. Heck, it's weird that AI5 chips were designed in April, then nearly designed in November, not nearly finished...and will be produced in 2027. The European market has collapsed. The Chinese market is collapsing. I'm worried Canada might rebound with the new tariff allowance from China, but most have to be cheaper than the Tesla models currently offered. No new Roadster. The Semi isn't a reality. Cybercab is stupid, maybe we'll have a few on the road this year, but I doubt it. But I don't know they can be seen as a success to justify $120/share or so of the valuation.

You would be a fool to bet against Tesla. Their value has no relationship with the company at all. In a sane world it would have gone down the toilet ages ago but here we are.

Rich people will continue buying stock while owners continue to suffer. Buy anything else. They'll never hold Elon accountable.

Also what’s the value of a robitaxi fleet? If they consumed the entire rideshare market (which won’t happen) it still doesn’t make the income that Musk claims. It’s the same thing with his do nothing robots. All of his predictions are predicated on people adopting his products at a price point that’s higher than the competition and at a dominant market share. The Cybertruck shows that they can’t make this happen because the technology and design isn’t superior, they can’t hit timelines or price points, their marketing is predatory, and their brand isn’t strong enough to overcome all of the above.

The future is bankruptcy. How long it takes is the only question.

Cathy Wood IS stupid. Her 40 year career investment has been mostly dismal failure with a couple of lucky investments.

Some of the richest people in the wold were wiped out in the Great Depression. GM founder William C Durant ended up bankrupt.

At $5 share Musk is bankrupt due to his massive personal debts.

More than 99% of companies eventually fail.

The going price for a failed car manufacturer is $1.

Let’s fucking go!

He's into things like crypto so has plenty set aside I'm sure. You won't ever see him begging in the streets.

As long as he keeps getting government $$, he will survive

It will not only unlock autonomy globally, but it will also transform how we use transportation. Uber and Lyft will be killed off. Legacy autos will be adding "TESLA Inside" stickers on their cars while using FSDs, Condos will be made without parking spaces, Auto insurance companies will be killed off, etc.

I have a 2021 model 3 - old hardware. I had the chance to drive a newer model with better cameras and the latest FSD. Was impressed how good it was. However I will never. Never. Buy anything from Elon Musk again. I will never forgive him for Doge - buying his way out of the many lawsuits and investigations against him. That’s a bridge I will never cross.

We were saying this back in 2018 with things like “Six months definitely”/“pedo guy” etc but the stock price has continued to defy gravity for years… that said FSD failing and being overtaken by Waymo et al and the incoming Chinese EVs might change things.

They sell less and less cars. The Profit will decrease every year. The Stock price will rise because Musk will talk about future products that are ready in the near future just one or two years away.

The Delaware court voiding Musk’s $56B pay package made headlines,  but the more interesting part is what it reveals about Tesla’s board structure. It’s a case study in how “independent” boards can quietly lose control. I broke down the governance mechanics here if anyone’s interested. [https://youtu.be/ypSv-x8y-5g](https://youtu.be/ypSv-x8y-5g)

The individual retail investors will end up holding a bag of excrement - love that analogy from "The Big Short"