Original Terathread returns! Does it self-delete the old one this time? Who knows?
Elon seems extremely confused lately. First he said AI5 is almost done, kind of forgeting he said it's already finished few months ago. Then he said they will be working on dojo3 which he said was cancelled few months ago. Now permabulls need to bent backward to rationalize this because after Elon they have been repeating that dojo is not needed. They also try to paint it as some genius strategy move and that Elon "paused" dojo to focus on AI5. Except he didn't pause anything. Entire dojo team quit to found their own company and that is why it was shelved.
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1qaqzrz/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jan_12/
I never understand the cycle: "Elon will solve self driving with Dojo" "Dojo2 will solve self driving" "OMG, Dojo3 will solve self driving" On and on it goes.
You have a good point. Three weeks before the end of the year he said he'd be able to pull safety monitors from the Austin Robotaxis ["in about three weeks"](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/elon-musk-sets-self-driving-tesla-robotaxi-countdown-to-three-weeks/ar-AA1S5r4n). I know he's been [over-promising for years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk) but that was next-level BS, suggesting, to me at least, it is more likely to be reflecting some kind of mental aberration, than simply being part of his usual\* [corporate puffery](https://www.ridgedevilsadvocate.com/domestic-affairs/2024/11/19/tesla-and-corporate-puffery/), especially given that, four weeks after that announcement, he made this one: ["Musk Says Tesla Needs 10 Billion Miles for Safe Self-Driving"](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/01/12/musk-the-mountain-is-10-billion-miles-high-for-safe-self-driving/) Given that milestone is, at the very least, many months away, it is difficult to imagine he could have believed he'd be pulling those safety monitors any time soon! \*despicable, fraudulent, irritating, depressing, but normal for him!
Unsupervised by the end of year claim was crazy. To give such a prediction three weeks in advance you would be inclined to believe they have it ready to go, already verified and are just prepering the launch. Than the date went by and now everyone pretends nothing is wrong and the promise never happened. I really think he is unwell. That was crazy even by his standards.
This is bolstering my theory that they'll get kicked out of the S&P 500 as soon as their rules allow, which will almost certainly be when they announce a quarter with negative earnings. I am fully aware that this would be unprecedented, and I might be completely wrong, but I know that, if I was in charge of an Index with TSLA in it, I'd be itching to find an excuse to kick it out before what must, surely, be the biggest house-of-cards-collapse in the history of capitalism, with a market cap currently c. 20 times peak Enron!
I don't want to link to it, but Sawyer Merritt is excited to see a rear camera washer on a "Cybercab". As part of this guerilla marketing, TSLA apparently shipped a Cybercab to Chicago (complete with Texas plate), where they are doing no testing, so it could get covered in salt spray and "spotted" with a clean spot over the rear camera. Of course this means TSLA has solved the problem of dirty cameras and "unsupervised" whatever is right around the corner. Strategically, the Elongelical who originally "spotted" it took a photo from an angle that just barely makes it impossible to see the driver. On the disappointing side, no gold spray paint on the tires.
if the stock drops a lot it'll get rebalanced i.e. sold by the index funds. Quite a tightrope Elon is walking now.
I'm 100% sure Tesla is coordinating with the influencers to get those pics. They are often made from angles or situation where it's obviously staged.
With FSD and Robotaxis being way behind schedule (they are always behind schedule, but I'm talking about Elon's November 2025 promises about what will happen by the end of December 2025) and Optimus uncertainty (cancelled?) the new stock price pump is already being prepared; >Tesla Goes “All In” on Chipmaking as Elon Musk Confirms Dojo3 Is Back on Track; AI5 Chip to Rival NVIDIA’s Blackwell with Much Better Perf/$ - Of course! Going all in on chipmaking. That business is known for not being capital intensive and you can build chip fabs so easily and quickly.
To be clear, these pivots are nothing more than announcements, there is no substance to them. Tesla is not actually building a fab and has no plans to do so, much less the highest-volume fab in the world. The rate of these pivots is only going to accelerate going forward, as new pivots become necessary to distract from the failure of prior pivots.
It kind of reminds me of [this post](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/052/603/cover3.jpg). Don't build fabs, just make very advanced chips immediately!
It's getting weirder now. Tesla will be a chip manufacturer/dojo will fix all. Oh we are switching to existing chips but it is still dojo to dojo is cancelled/is no longer needed. To now we are going to make our own chips again. I'm sorry Tesla, but you have phased out the chip design/manufacturing in the past 2 or 3 years. How is anyone still believing Elon Musk has any vision other than say whatever to boost the stock. At least with fsd it had been it is out next year consistently.
Tesla sales in the daily reporting countries, through the first 16 days of each quarter: \-2026 Q1: 526 \-2025 Q4: 679 \-2025 Q1: 1021 \-2024 Q1: 1833
In some cases they simply take the pics or film the clips themselves and then post them from some random account pretending to be a member of the public, like in the case of the December unsupervised robotaxi clip. I wonder what hilarious mememaster genius came up with the username "420BountyHunter".
Why does everybody keep talking about Elon's 1 trillion dollar award package? Didn't Tesla say multiple times that the new award package will only move forward if the Court of Chancery's decision to void the previous one would be upheld by the supreme court? It was reinstated, so why do websites keep talking about the trillion dollar package like it's still in place?
Joke's on you I already get the most advanced chips and dip from the corner store.
No, there was the grant that the lawsuit was about, then they were going to restore his original pay package come hell or high water, THEN there was a new pay package.
Because it is still in place.... There was a *provision* in the 1T package which would basically compensate him for the canceled package but that is void since it is restored. The rest of the 1T package still stands
one boat from Shanghai per quarter can cover this demand
Gotcha. I must have remembered wrong.
>That business is known for not being capital intensive Tol be fair, its a pretty good excuse for the inevitable need for a capital raise later this year.
That was about another grant. At the recent shareholder meeting, Tesla shareholders approved two pay packages for Elon: - a 208 million shares with no strings attached package (to be dispersed at the pleasure of the Tesla BoD) - a $1 trillion forward-looking package that is split into multiple smaller tiers with different conditions for each lower tier - He now also gets the one that the Court of Chancery approved, or reversed their previous decision, to be more precise.
I'd love to see platforms like Kalshi host specific contracts like "How much revenue will Robotaxi/Optimus generate for Tesla by 2026/27/... ?" with ranges of options. Analysts like Cathie Wood projected $351 billion in robotaxi revenue by 2024, and shamelessly continue the charade because the ultimate goal is boosting the price and keeping the party going. Prediction markets are supposed to help prevent market bubbles and distortions by removing bias which are things believers in prediction markets tout as having real world value. Telsa would be a great case for this as their valuation is rooted in these highly speculative products. Analysts covering Tesla should have to base their forecasts for the stock in part on what the market sees for these rather than fairy tales. Also, it's possibly the one thing I'd wager money on in these sites if the betting markets truly believe Musk's promises.
This absolute bullshit was publish by Axios today; >BEHIND THE CURTAIN: Elon Musk believes SpaceX has cracked the code on building orbiting data centers to power AI — and plans to fund the audacious vision through its IPO. >Musk and other top AI execs believe that earthbound data centers will become politically toxic and less efficient than space
Data centers need three things. Low latency high bandwidth internet, abundant electricity, and a highly efficient method of disposing of vast quantities of heat. I'm increasingly of the opinion that these insane ramblings are just Musk's equivalent of Nigerian Princes' propensity for bad spelling; because if you make your scam too believable you end up like Elizabeth Holmes.
Yeah. It was also an account with no prior tweets that just randomly spotten a single unsupervised car on a single ride it did.
And protection from solar wind, something that is lacking in space. Musk didn't start talking about this on his own, this comes from that stupid "Abundance" book that is talking about how the government must create more Elon Musks so that we have "floating factories" in space where goods are assembled and drones bring them to our doorstep.
Great way to say it's not going to happen. This man thought the solved problem of tunneling was easy and yet managed to do it worse and stupider.
They're also gigantic. A minor detail when it comes to assembling things in space.
The concept of datacenters in space is such an insult to basic intelligence. Even assuming you've magically fixed the heat dissipation, networking, and latency issues, by the time you've paid for the payload to reach orbit your operation can no longer be cost-competitive with its ground-based equivalent. It's not just Elon who's grifting off of this, a couple startups are doing it as well. Idiot investors lap it up with zero technical due diligence.
Just make an even bigger rocket and launch it all together. Musk, probably.
I'm imagining a building the size of a Wal Mart, with a rocket at each corner...
> Elon Musk believes SpaceX has cracked the code IOW he's lying his ass off again.
Common sense and critical thinking aren't allowed in the Musk-sphere. Everything must be taken at face value without a second thought to execution, physics, profit, or potential market
he thinks he's highly confident that he wouldn't be surprised that subject to regulatory clearances there's a high probability that it should be expected that this would have a near certainty of beginning to be probably nearly fully technically able to do it perhaps by the end of the year. That's at least his goal.
They misinterpreted “smoked the crack”. He has moved on from ketamine.
Launch is also famously easy on electronics and equipment and of course all the current data center gear and chips on the market have been built to handle that.
I don't think Norway will be Tesla's friend anymore.
They also require constant maintenance. They are not fire and space is much harcher environment than datacenter on earth. How will they do maintenance on it. How will they swap out gpus/drives/other elements that break?
So what is the code to orbiting data centers? It's simply cost. We have the technology to do it. . . but it would cost about 10,000x as much money per Grok. Financial Problems Solar panels in space > Nuclear power > Solar panels on earth. Cost to orbit -- $10,000 per Kg . . . plus that much to fix. \-Heat radiation is more difficult too Cost of Data Center electronics --- Space Hardened >>>> Earth ready. Cost of fixing broken portions --- Space >>>> Earth repairs. So when Elon says he believes he ahs cracked the code. . . He is just saying someone else cracked the code 30 years ago. . . But financially This is peak Dunning-Kruger.
From the article: "Today's rockets can't lift the heavy cooling systems that AI chips require. Starship can." I spit out my coffee.
I wonder if Norways national fund will sell their Tesla stock now?
An incongruity from the Axios puff piece on Musk's AI data centers in space: *"Earth's power grids are maxed out. Data centers are already competing for electricity with factories and homes. Musk is betting the only way to scale AI without crashing the grid is to move the computing off the planet entirely."* The power grid is maxed out, you say? And there's no way to use more without "crashing the grid?" hmmm...its estimated that full electricfication of cars & trucks in the US will increase electricty demand by 25%. I think its a big hurdle, to be sure, but its been Tesplained to me that its really not that big of a deal - Technoking can do it in a smallish patch of remote desert with a giant solar array. Seems the once in a generation Edison of our time big brain is playing both sides of the coin. Which one is it? Is growing the electrical grid trivially easy? Or is it so impossible that only Elon can save us by launching thousands of tons of data center into space?
15 year Elonversary: Headline: "Build a $30,000 electric car in under four years. That’s the promise made last night by Tesla CEO Elon Musk" - Green Car Reports, Jan 20, 2011 Unrelated 3 year Elonversary: *"Just because I tweet something does not mean people believe it"* \- Tweet-O-Grifter, Jan 20, 2023
>So what is the code to orbiting data centers? Give Elon more $$$$.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/tesla-stock-tsla-falls-despite-key-catalysts the "catalysts": * Canada to start allowing cheap Chinese BEVs * Cybercab has rear camera washer * Dojo "restarted" * Elon forced to drastically cut margins in SK
The final sentence in the article. >Over the last year TSLA has gained 3.2% So less than a HYSA
And Jan 21-> March was a 50% drop, too. People have forgotten this stock was bouncing around $300 6 months ago but got manipuiated into the 400s thanks to all of Elon's BS ("50% population coverage by the end of the year")
Trillions to be exact. . . To keep the grift/pyramid scheme going . . . You need to exponentially increase the pool of money.
These people are getting paid to sau all this dumbass shit right? Nobody could possibly be that stupid?
It's the same argument as narrative that was pushed about Mars in the past. Because of environmental issues on Earth only chance to survive as a human race is to move to Mars. Only solution to a plate breaking in the dining room is to build a new house.
Apparently blowing a bunch money on an ill advised whim to buy Twitter wasn't enough for Musk and now he's threatening to buy RyanAir. Why you ask? Well RyanAir's CEO said they weren't going to install Starlink on their planes and use it for in flight wifi. Unforgivable right?
I look at Antarctica as a canary in this coal mine. Sure there are people living there - but it takes a constant stream of re-supply. They exist as an "outpost", but in no sense are they "developing" Antarctica - no growing food, mining minerals, harvesting natural resources. They just "survive" and do scientific testing. I'm baffled people believe humans will just go about their daily routines on Mars.
These are the drug fueled fuck ups that make puts print! Gentleman I declare short season again for TSLA. It's on! Remember to close your positions the week of the Q1 earnings. Do not hold too much after earnings.
Ryanair is trolling him too. They just announced a “Big Idiot” [flash sale](https://xcancel.com/ryanair/status/2013655641600987263) that’s “only available for Elon Musk and other idiots on X” featuring a picture of Elon as a bobble head doll. And it’s a real sale. lol
i'm not a ketamine expert but doesn't the fact that at most all people are doing is light web surfing on phones make something like an older school geosync internet satalite make a lot more sense for general passenger use on a plane? Most people are not rocking their gaming rigs inflight.
The interesting part about Canada allowing limited Chinese car imports is it theoretically helps tesla in the very short term until companies like BYD get set up and then its a big negative.
China isn't threatening to invade Canada so I doubt Elon's going to see any sales growth there as long as he's buddy-buddy with the orange menace.
49k Chinese EVs to enter Canada, can’t be great for Tesla
Especially for a regional short-haul airline with most flights around 1-3 hours.
Fortunately for Elon (and anyone who flies Ryanair) EU law [prohibits](https://investor.ryanair.com/investors-shareholders/ownership-limitations/) foreign nationals from having majority control in Ryanair. But as far as I'm concerned petty oligarchs shouldn't be able to buy up any companies reasonably valued at $40 billion. I'm not at all anti-capitalist but the heights of consolidation of individual power have gotten way out of hand.
about their peak sales clip, before the current cross-border, uh, issues https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-sales-in-canada-fell-more-than-60-in-2025/
If it's ready to go there's no good reason to not just do it. It shouldn't even warrant some launch spectacle that they need to get together. That's how I knew it definitely wasn't happening. What I think is going on here is Elon thinks (despite overwhelming evidence) he can make anything happen if he asserts maximum pressure on employees, especially when it's something he thinks is easy and should have already been done. So in early December he goes to the FSD engineers/Austin logistics team and starts yelling at them about safety monitors and how he doesn't get why they need to be there. Then he tells them they have three weeks to get rid of them or else and if they had vacation plans they'd better cancel them. So the team scrambles together to produce some carefully controlled stunt to appease him.
That is quite likely scenario. There for sure is immense pressure because they were pushing FSD patches on christmas. X sycophants were elated how hard working Tesla employees are but that must have been horrible. Any software release is stresful and people have to be at work in case stuff goes wrong. That means significant amount of mission critical people spent their christmas at work. This period of time is usually dead at most tech companies because people take vacations for christmas break. There is no way that stunt didn't destroy whatever was left of FSD team morale.
my OTMs up 30% across the board today . . . only need 15 more days like today by March expiry LOL
You’re not thinking like a rich piece of shit. He’ll find a country in the EU that allows him to buy citizenship and then he’s good to go.
You got me excited. I thought the bobble head was for sale :(
Big news. Robotaxi expanding to 5 states. They'll have to hire a lot of new drivers.
One yeay Eloniversary ["The Salute"](https://i.imgur.com/y81Kxwx.gif)
Unfortunately some people aren't as tuned in to current events and politics as they should be so the lower price will have some effect. I'd love an update on their fraud from last year to remind people.
Tesla makes Chinese EVs !
Like 50 maybe? They will have just 5 cars in each state and only run 2 at a time.
So lemonade has decided they want to chase the Tesla insurance combined ratio challenge to see how high they can go. Having 15 years in insurance industry in a tech first company with actual profits i am having a hard time resisting dumping my bonus into shorts of both companies.
Ryanair CEO at a new conference [welcomed his feud with Elon Musk](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/tech/ryanair-oleary-musk-spat-scli-intl) saying it has boosted ticket sales 2% to 3% over the past few days. Ryanair is an ultra low cost airline that is the biggest airline in Europe (when you go by number of passengers) so that amounts to a pretty big increase. He also dismissed Elon’s threats to buy the airline because EU rules prohibit non-EU citizens from owning a majority stake in an EU based airline. He did welcome Elon investing in Ryanair however, saying he would get a better return on his investment than he did from buying X.
News: Tesla now has a MegaFactory in Germany. KiloFactory soon™.
Elon will likely get a better return on his Ryanair shares than his Tesla shares. Ryanair issue [dividends](https://investor.ryanair.com/investors-shareholders/dividend/), and their share price isn't inflated by ridiculous promises of [jam tomorrow, but never jam today.](https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/)
Holy shit i knew lemonade was fucked. I did not realize they were leomonparty level fucked. 180% combined ratio. A healthy functional not going out of business insurance company needs to be in the low 90s at the highest. Otherwise you can’t pay claims.
Tesla sales in the EU fell about 40% in 2025. Some people on here commented that therefore the big drop had already happened, and sales would proceed to stabilize in 2026. That's incorrect, Tesla sales will be down *another* 30-50% in the EU in 2026.
Source? We’re just 20 days into the year
Source: I am making a prediction.
I agree with you fwiw. This Greenland rhetoric will crush Tesla EU sales even more (didn’t think that was possible but here we are haha)
Completely agree, I've said it for a while, but Tesla will soon have a year where they will sell less than a million cars.
When do you think they'll start having to report negative earnings?
If MS is predicting a modest cash burn for Tesla, you know that things aren't going great. >Morgan Stanley is out with their Tesla Q4 earnings preview. MS sees $1.5 billion of FCF burn in 2026.
2028 should be the first year below 1M. 2026: 1.35M 2027: 1.15M 2028: 0.95M
Most likely Q1 unless they pull some accounting shenanigans. They will sell 300k cars and most of these will be at 0 margin. No revenue from credit sales either. Their full-year EPS will be in the $0-$0.5 range. The PE ratio will go over 1000 at some point.
I coined the term ByteBerlin a couple of weeks ago
China fought hard for this exemption. Zero chance they'll let Tesla eat up that quota over their own homegrown heros.
I was told they were doubling every year for the foreseeable future.
In Denmark 45% of Tesla Model Y fails the mandatory 4 year technical inspection. For comparison, VW ID.4 has a 2% failure rate. Typical problems are brakess, steering, suspension, wheels, drive shafts. 22% of the Teslas failed because of the suspension. For VW ID4 it was 0,1%. Crap car.
So? Elon wants them to buy a new one anyway. What are they doing with a 4 year old car? Throw it away, buy a new one. He is saving the planet, by the way.
Elon Musk is speaking at Davos as I type this. Important to make life interplanetary... ZZZzzz...
I'm still pissed that New Zealand granted that POS Thiel citizenship.
He really has lost the plot.
Sounds good. Has he said when he's leaving?
*MUSK: TESLA WILL BE SELLING OPTIMUS TO PUBLIC BY END OF NEXT YR
>Elon Musk is making a surprise World Economic Forum appearance in Davos after publicly criticizing the annual gathering of political and business elites for years. >In the past few years, Musk has been one of the WEF's most prominent critics, regularly criticizing the annual Davos gathering as elitist, unaccountable and disconnected from ordinary people. Not that I like Gavin Newsom, but the fact that the guy leading the worlds 4th largest economy is blocked from speaking and this shit stain is allowed on stage is a complete joke.
Optimus has quickly become one of Elon's classics, even as he is slowly moving to datacenters in space and "universal abundant income". I'm also happy that he is still selling "making life interplanetary", first humans on Mars in 2024!! - IIRC, he said in 2025 that mass production of Optimus starts in 2026? https://deepnewz.com/robotics/tesla-sets-2026-mass-production-target-optimus-humanoid-robot-26063bcf >Musk said Tesla plans to move the robot into volume production during 2026 and is preparing manufacturing capacity to build about one million units a year within five years—roughly 100,000 robots a month. He added that autonomy software will be the key driver of value as the business scales.
We need some Tesla sales decline porn.
*"I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units next year."* \- Grand Poobah of Grift, Jan 24, 2024
A few of tomorrow's 3 year Elonversaries: *"every time we sell a car, it has the ability, just from uploading software, to have full self-driving enabled, and full self-driving is obviously getting better very rapidly. So that's actually a tremendous upside potential because all of those cars, with a few exceptions -- I mean, only a small percentage of cars don't have* ***Hardware 3****. So that means that there's millions of cars where full self-driving can be sold at essentially* ***100% gross margin.****"* \- Freemont Fibber, Jan 23, 2023 Speaking directly to shareholders. *"And the value of it grows as the autonomous capability grows. And then, when it becomes fully autonomous, that is a value increase in the fleet. That might be the* ***biggest asset value increase*** *of anything* ***in history****"* \- DOGE Deluder, Jan 23, 2023 Speaking directly to shareholders. Editor's note: Tesla's fleet now leads the pack in depreciation.
Is it possible foe the World Economic Forum to jump the shark?
WEF at Davos is one big circlejerk anyways and always has been. "You'll own nothing and be happy" was from a paper that was presented there and really defines what the current generation of an-cap billionaires in the US is trying to push us towards. It's always been a big event for these guys to puff themselves up and talk about how they're the most important and visionary people in the world. Only surprising thing is that Musk had apparently been boycotting the venue despite it being an easy opportunity to get all the attention he can't live without.
Definately going to happen. I’m sure. Elon’s always wrong with timelines but this time it’s different!!!
I remember when he didn’t go to WEF one year (I think he wasn’t invited that year iirc) and all the fanbois said he’d never go because everyone knows the WEF is evil and Elon is a good guy so he’d never participate in that.
*TESLA BEGINS ROBOTAXI DRIVES IN AUSTIN WITH NO SAFETY MONITOR
Sure, Jan. >Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin. >Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time. >— Ashok Elluswamy (@aelluswamy) [January 22, 2026](https://xcancel.com/aelluswamy/status/2014398853991301538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
EC-driven deployment
Yeah, earnings are probably going to be a disaster next week.
"the broader robotaxi fleet" - there are literally only 5 of them dude
So 2 will have no monitor, but rather a remote operator, and 3 will have a safety monitor. eLoN aLwAyS DeLiVeRs
[removed]
I honestly think it will all fall apart for him this year. His projections for unsupervised FSD shifted from being in terms of years through months to weeks in 2025. How on earth can he get to the end of 2026, sans unsupervised autonomy, sans useful robotics, sans any new cars people actually want to buy, sans anything, with Tesla still valued at over $1T?
Another scam, just like the self driving delivery to a customer that happened one time in a staged setting. This will be pre mapped routes open to a few influencers
Sorry, you can't link to the other Tesla subs.
Zero year Elonversary today at Davos: >*"SpaceX is about advancing advancing rocket technology so we can extend life and consciousness beyond earth, to the moon, to Mars and eventually to other star systems."* What in the Trekky hell is he talking about!?!?! Other "star systems"? Come on. As it happens, I recently saw a story that Voyagers 1 and 2 have officially left the heliosphere as of 2018 - now officially not in our "star system". They were launched in: ***1977*****.** The nearest "star system" to ours is over ***4 light years*** away. But sure, Elon is going to start settling some planet in the Alpha Centauri system, for realz.
I doubt the "unsupervised" (as in, remotely supervised) robotaxis that are "available to the public now" will materialize at all outside of Twitter clips posted by the usual Tesla influencers. The thing you have to understand about the robotaxi "fleet" in Austin is that it consists of 0-3 cars on the road at any given time (this is down significantly from Oct-Nov when it was more like 5-8). As I'm writing these lines, the [robotaxi tracker app](https://robotaxitracker.com/wait-times?area=austin) estimates that are 2 cars on the road right now. How many of these are unsupervised? One of them? Both of them? None of them? I'm gonna take a guess: none of them. But if any of you are on the ground in Austin maybe you can try to hail both cars and report back.
Hard science fiction envisions flights to the nearest star systems at 0.1c, over durations of 50-500 years, while keeping passengers in cryo. It seems realistic to me, with an initial flight at some point in the next 200 years. By the time it happens the name "Elon Musk" will be more closely associated with fraud and moral degeneracy in popular memory than with spaceflight.
There is zero chsnce that the EU are going to give Tesla approval for anything from now on in.
Fun fact: TechnoClown has often said in the past that he needed to secure $80B in order to create a self-sustaining city on Mars. His net worth is now something like $700-800B, but I'm not seeing any city on Mars, oddly. Can't be long.
> Voyagers 1 and 2 have officially left the heliosphere as of 2018 - now officially not in our "star system" It's worth pointing out that "not in our star system" doesn't mean anywhere near any other star system. In the 48+ years since its launch, Voyager 1 has made it just over one half of a tenth of a percent the distance between Sun and Alpha Centauri.
I think they just moved the emergency stop button from front-passenger seat's door handle button to that of back seat, to make that clip. Literally nothing changed but the Stock is up, da f\*ck is wrong with investors who are buying this pump!!
Elon just made a bold statement in Davos today: *"I think self driving cars is essentially a* ***solved problem*** *at this point"* Hmmm...sounds familiar. *"I view it as a* ***solved problem****. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years,"* \- King of the Con, March 17, 2015 *"I consider autonomous driving to be a basically* ***solved problem****"* \- GriftoKing, June 2, 2016 *"Unsupervised is pretty much* ***solved*** *at this point" T*echnoCon, Dec 9, 2025
It's unsupervised like they did a remote delivery. Once and with a bunch of asterisks but by golly they did it.
"end of next year" is absolutely speak for "absolutely not going to happen but imagine if it did"
I love how he's always using these qualifiers to signal he's knowingly lying. *"essentially", "in my view", "basically", "pretty much"...*
It’s actually a carefully calculated way to avoid being sued for securities fraud. Adding those simple phrases is purely a trained legal move that lets him 100% off the hook for anything that doesn’t actually happen. Which is the vast majority of what he actually says.
>Tesla is likely to [win regulatory approval](https://www.reuters.com/business/davos/davos-musk-expects-europe-china-approve-teslas-fsd-system-next-month-2026-01-22/) in Europe and China as early as next month for its driver-supervised Full Self-Driving system, CEO Elon Musk said on Thursday. No way he would lie about this to pump the stock...
Does he really need special approval? Isn't "FSD Supervised" just "driving a car"?
Lots of blind followers.
Weasel word Wusk
He says that constantly because he actually believes it. Because he looks at a problem like a 3 year old. Self driving is basically just perception + path planning. It's basically already solved, a roomba can do it. Everything is a solved problem to him except maybe things like P=NP. It's just that it's a stupid thing to say because the distinction is meaningless. It's not about "solving" at all.
Yeah it's always a solved or simple problem because he vastly oversimplifies the problem and isn't remotely detail oriented in his analysis. We see this time and time again with his statements. I mean how hard could it be? You just need to write software to drive the car. He's described the solution as "lots and lots of lines of code" despite ML/AI models being relatively low code and data sets being way more important. Made nonsense equivalences, self driving is easy because "Cameras are eyes and NNs are a brain", etc. He just constantly does this shallow ass analysis based on his intuition and tries to gloss over that by framing it as a 'first principles analysis'. In reality he just literally has no idea what he's talking about, doesn't understanding things on a level that would allow him to ever meaningfully contribute and completely ignores the hairiness of problems because he literally lacks the domain expertise to even comprehend it. At best his timelines are based on optimistic linear extrapolation of on some submetric that he sees as being the defining characteristic of the problem at the moment, like basic object recognition early in the days of autopilot. He's literally too lazy and ignorant to actually provide realistic timelines or effective leadership and people just ignore that by portraying him as some unorthodoxed maverick who's challenging the status quo instead of a hamfisted idiot learning everything the hard way because he was too much of a stooge to even attempt to learn and understand a topic before making bold declarations about it pouring billions of dollars into it.
Tomorrow's Elonversaries: *"I'm* ***con****fident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human. So \[Inaudible\] how do we get ultimately to -- let's say, for argument's sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than human, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%. It will be Hardware 5 beyond that. But what really matters is are we improving the average safety on the road."* \- Tele-Swindler, Jan 23, 2023 Speaking directly to shareholders. Editor's note: Chuck still can't make his left turn. *"But long term, I am convinced that Tesla will be the most valuable company on earth."* \- Pretorian Perjurer, Jan 23, 2023 Speaking directly to shareholders. Editor's note: Tesla matched Renault in 2025 sales. *"We should have a base on the moon, a city on Mars"* \- Galactic Grifter, Jan 23, 2020 Editor's note: Nasa contracted with SpaceX $4 billion for a Human Landing System by 2024. Presently data is being collected.
They have a chase car with reportedly two occupants. It's not specified if the chase car contains the safety monitor - just moved to another car. But that would be my guess. If so it's still PR theater. Actually getting worse each time. Having a safety monitor at all means the best place for them is in the driver's seat. Moving to the passenger seat provided negative safety benefit, and if it's true that the safety monitor is now in the chase car, that's even less safe. Taking one more step, there could be the day when the safety monitor is in a remote HQ. If they are still needed for a kill switch function then it's much less safe than just having them in the driver's seat. Only when there is no safety monitor at all will we start to see if FSD is capable or not of autonomous driving. Everything else is just poor safety culture Level 2.
There are two flavours of blind follows, though. There are the fanbois, who see Musk as a genius, and there are those blindly investing in all the stocks comprising indices such as the S&P 500. I think the profits will fizzle out, the indices will drop TSLA, and the blind fanbois simply won't have sufficient funds to 'buy the dip' created when the blind index-trackers dump the lot.
No, actually 2 of those last 3 will be used as chasing cars for the first 2.
Elon declared at Davos that self driving cars are “basically a solved problem!” Amazing! Turns out, the solution is to have someone is a chaser car behind you ready to intervene when needed.
> Editor's note: Tesla matched Renault in 2025 sales. And that's just the Renault brand, not the entire Renault Group which sold 2.3 million cars last year. https://media.renaultgroup.com/renault-group-and-its-brands-achieve-a-third-consecutive-year-of-growth-driven-by-international-sales-and-electrification/?lang=eng
Good to know. Fun fact: Renault's market cap is 1/140th TSLA's.
Its more profound than it sounds.
It is not a prediction unless made well ahead of time: Will we see another Tesla 40% (or greater) YoY drop in January for Europe? My guess is yes.
He's just congratulating Waymo for their achievement.
Ashok Elluswamy doesn't get enough credit as deputy chief trickster at Tesla. He plays a big role in propping up the smoke and mirrors behind the scenes.
Ok help me understand the trick here, how would a chase car to fake FSD advancement even work? The transmission delay would be like playing a game at a crappy FPS.
Chase car has the emergency stop button for the car it's chasing. Not full control. And yes the delay time is probably worse but I don't think Tesla really cares if the emergency stops are slow and sloppy at non-highway speeds. The chase car also does its best to keep another car from tailgating the car it's chasing so when it's forced to a sudden hard stop it doesn't get rear ended.
Second this.
January '25 was 9,700 for Europe. I doubt they drop to <6k but you never know.
Funny how people went to Austin to experience unsupervised robotaxi but they seem to be very rare. I'm seeing one guy reporting 0/3 and another 0/6. Even when they launched in June for infuencers there was tons of videos on X. It's very hard to find anything new from unsupervised today. Edit: one guy is on 11th try lol.
Well, they're still supervised. The supervisor is in a car just behind them. You know, for the two hours of the day where it's not rainy or too sunny.
My guess is no. There's probably a hard floor on the number of people that are just totally clocked-out of all current affairs, and still see Tesla as a premium product because everything's computer.
Elon’s and he were doing a live stream of FSD (the one where they wanted to drive to Zuck’s house in PA to kick his ass) and the damn car tried to proceed into a red intersection (El Camino Real no less)
There are 1-3 active cars at a time in Austin. All of them have safety monitors. If you make 11 attempts at hailing a robotaxi you will have been in the same car half of the time. And you will definitely have seen the entire "fleet".
Maybe only 30%. Wait and see. We'll see a large YoY drop in any case.
Self-driving cars ***are*** a solved problem, just try Waymo.
Renault Group = Renault brand + Dacia brand, basically
Modern communications can be quite rapid, especially if you can stay close and keep the signals simple. Think about higher end drones and remote controlled vehicles...
The chase car is probably just to help monitor and be there immediately to do damage control if something were to go wrong, I can't imagine them functionally being able to do much. I think the real scam is that only a very small percentage of time they are actually going driverless in certain routes with friendly insiders for now while nearly most every ride actually still has safety riders in the car, however it just gets reported that the safety drivers have been removed.
Its not a completely wasted trip. They can still go to Giga-Mecca and jar up some dirt.
It's like going to the diner to get served popcorn by Optimus all over again.
So, in short, zero evidence this, or the self-delivery last year, any more real than Paint It Black.
Ashark Ellusmarmy
They say it in the Elon cult subs as well. One guy is 0/17. They just did it for the video to support Elon’s speech at Davos.
Elonversary tomorrow: *"I see us ultimately delivering on the order of 0.25 million, something like 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year in North America, maybe more."* \- Griftimus, Jan 24, 2024...speaking directly to shareholders. Editor's Note: Using decimals of millions rather than whole numbers makes him sound like a smart guy who probably landed a rocket. He must do sciency stuff all the time. But I'll play along - 2025 CyberStuck sales were: 0.02 million.
people heard the "million cybertrucks" part
Ashok on the Q3 earnings call: "We continue to operate our fleet in Austin without anyone in the driver's seat" expect a similar confabulation from him or Elon next week
Somebody talk me down from punting $8000 on FSD next week LOL. As a cost, it's basically a $40/mo lost opportunity cost for life. If I were in my 20s that might be too much but I'm entering my 60s and hope my HW4 Model Y has another 15 years in it. My main problem is that the future of FSD is really murky; I was generally impressed with the latest free month-long beta last month, but in the long run I don't know if this will be a $300 or $30/mo option. One of Elon's easier 1% stock tranches is the 10M/yr sub operational milestone, so he's be incentivized to hit a 50% take rate I bet. I wouldn't put it past him head-faking on his "we're going to raise the price of the sub" and just cutting it to $50 or whatever. If Elon was willing to walk his talk Tesla insurance rates should drop more than $50/mo with full-time FSD, since he asserts it's orders of magnitude safer than a human driver. Interesting puzzle.
That's all calculated if the vehicle doesn't have major issues during ownership. I don't think it's a puzzle but just more pulling of demand levers as sales continue to slow.
I have 0.01 million in my checking account. Am I doing this right?
It's basically Teslas in tunnels at this point
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A chase car opens up a massive can of worms. I.e. what is the protocol of the direct radio link? What would prevent a 3rd car with an SDR like the Flipper Zero to capture and replay the communication between the vehicles.
>If Elon was willing to walk his talk Tesla insurance rates should drop more than $50/mo with full-time FSD, since he asserts it's orders of magnitude safer than a human driver. "it's orders of magnitude safer than a human driver" - it isn't though, so he won't. If you focus on everything, ready to take over in case it does something stupid, what is the point? If you rely on it in any way it may kill you.
I just paid 0.000001 million pounds for a pot of tea in a café in the UK.
long time insurance guy at a real multinational carrier. Musk is not very good at running an insurance company. I wouldn't trust anything he says. The only way they have gotten their combined ratio under control is through bad faith denials.
Take a shit in one hand and hope in another, " hope my HW4 Model Y has another 15 years in it."
0.0001 million Percent correct!
A: You're taking a big gamble that your Model Y has 15 years of life left on it. Batteries being what they are, you'd almost certainly have at least one battery replacement cost to reach that milestone. B: You're taking a gamble that nothing else better than FSD will come along in the next 15 years. No way in hell I'd shovel $8k towards a "Beta" product, with no known outcome or timeline. Especially if said product is tied to a depreciating car.
A 2 year Elonversary that I like to call: Optimus Optimism: *"I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units next year."* \- Grand Poobah of Grift, Jan 24, 2024 Narrator: Of course they shipped zero. More misplaced optimism: *"You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for \[full self-driving\] licenses...we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year." -* Rocket Landing Liar, Jan 24, 2024
Also those motors are neither cheap or even as simple as the simps advertise. Good luck not having a drive unit failure over 15 years.
he is 0 for 36 as of this afternoon....clearly another smoke and mirrors scam before earnings....gee what a shock.
If Tesla seriously thought Model Ys had 20 year life spans they never would have offered FSD for the cost of under 7 years of subscription. Even if you do everything right and hit the part life lottery there's still a pretty good chance of losing the car to accident damages exceeding what insurance will pay for repairs.
It's not hard to have a protocol that doesn't just accept commands with bitstreams identical to previous ones. That's like the basics of protocol security.
Well, it did become obvious to many that it's not real, so nobody is asking for FSD licensing.
That's definitely the reason. A quarter million sounds like more that 250,000 to his stans.
bUt WaYmO cAnT ScALe LiKe tEsLa
There’s always spacex to absorb excess supply!
[https://www.pcmag.com/news/tesla-eyes-late-2025-rollout-for-next-gen-evs-possible-25k-version?test\_uuid=04IpBmWGZleS0I0J3epvMrC&test\_variant=B](https://www.pcmag.com/news/tesla-eyes-late-2025-rollout-for-next-gen-evs-possible-25k-version?test_uuid=04IpBmWGZleS0I0J3epvMrC&test_variant=B) That same call he said the next-gen vehicle would start production by late 2025. Most assumed that was the $25k vehicle, not stripped down 3s and Ys.
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