Tesla faces several self-imposed deadlines in 'prove-it' year

Ohhh yeah, because it worked so well the other times Tesla set deadlines for their products lol

Deadline? Or Dead Lines?

we'll be driving on Mars surface in 14months... underground tunnels will reduce traffic... they'll replace trains! space data-centers!! Robots will work for you

Not the only lines Felon does

>"That's really a vehicle that's optimized for full autonomy," he said on the call. "I think the demand will be pretty nutty." -Musk This is farcical. It's a Tesla stripped down for cost, the opposite of built for full autonomy. Users of a Taxi do not want a cheap car, they want a cheap, safe, comfortable service. The fact Musk is the richest man in the world, shows just how empty the USA is of productive enterprises right now and just how nonsensical capital allocation is.

Musk may have figured out this is likely the last year he can say "next year" before the economy implodes and venture capital evaporates.

USA where everything is a scam

Wasn't cybertaxi supposed to be everywhere by now?

No they don’t.  Until there are actual consequences for their fraud(s), it’s lather-rinse-repeat.

Reads in Charlie Murphy laughing gif.

FSD next year

It also just looks really dumb irl. Like the cyberstuck. Especially with those painted tires. Concept cars sometimes should stay concepts.

In fairness. the US has plenty of productive enterprises that are doing pretty well. It's just that none of the others have this 1984 style aura of disinformation around them that's so pervasive, AND so broadly believed. Musk can miss 1,000 fantasy deadlines, and yet the next one he throws out there, investors instantly believe him and come running to buy more stock. I think at a certain point, a lot of the investors treated the stock differently. It's not a real investment in something tangible anymore like a normal stock. It's just an avenue for investment speculation. It's not a lot different than a cryptocurrency in a way. The value of Tesla stock is simply in the value of the stock. It has no actual link back to the company itself, and a lot of investors are treating it that way.

They dont even own the trademark

Clickbait. Nothing new, no reporting.

Awesome i got my tesla in 2018 with full self drive because its coming soon! Almost soon is almost here!!!

Hahahahahahaha

“if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road." -Elon musk, April 2019

He will keep doing this as long as Musktards keep buying it

If any other company missed so many ‘deadlines’ and promised so much yet delivered so little, the market would punish them mercilessly.

They can’t use the Cybercab name now because they didn’t file the trademark in time. And another company grabbed. Another great business decision from Elon. lol.

\> we'll be driving on Mars surface in 14months To be fair, NASA is, and likely will still be in 14 months! But any SpaceX effort on that score seems at least a decade out. \> underground tunnels will reduce traffic The small scale underground tunnel projects they built likely DID reduce traffic, so that wouldn't be quite a lie. They are just incredibly inefficient compared to train subway systems and so were an ill-conceived idea from the start. \> space data-centers!!  Not personally aware of SpaceX / Tesla / Elon having made that claim (It could have happened and I missed it), but yeah. It's just a terrible idea if you understand the issues at hand. Radiating heat away from you in space is **hard**. \> Robots will work for you Humanoid robots do seem to be making big strides, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the market in a significant way in the next 5 years. I'm not at all convinced that Tesla specifically has some special sauce for robots though; the more successful demos I've seen have been from other companies. Which at the very least suggest that Tesla will be in a highly competitive congested market when these things do launch, and may suggest they are significantly behind the competition.

\> cheap, safe, comfortable service I'd argue that the two most important factors are: 1) Price / ride. People on average are just straight up going to go for the cheapest options, regardless of comfort. You see this in things like airlines all the time. 2) Perceived safety. Which doesn't necessarily mean **actual** safety. A handful of high profile accidents could really tar a companies reputation for this, and the likelihood of getting future customers, even if it statistically is quite safe. Given the scrutiny around autonomous vehicles, I'd say it needs **substantially better than human safety** to pass this "Safety perception" check.

After CES this year I feel it’s especially safe to say Tesla is not regaining any front positions. This company is in the dying phase (regardless of the seemingly illegal stock pumping).

Ah but to be fair, you need to add two years for covid supply shocks, and another 5-10 years for the "Elon Musk is a liar" adjustment factor.

And "Guaranteed to work without hardware upgrades" will go really well with your HW2.5 version, when they are needing HW5 or later to get the system up to safety par!

Trust me. . . If people still believe Elon Musk will hit his deadlines at this point. . . Nothing will change their mind. Remember Hyperloop, Boring Tunnels going 140 mph (wormholes), SpaceX going to Mars in 2018, SpaceX will reduce the cost of astronauts to ISS ($20 Million at the time, now SpaceX >$70 million per astronaut), Flying Roadsters, 1 million Robotaxi by 2020, Q1 2018 --- 3 months to coast to coast summon your car. Seriously if you can process all of those promises, and basically say "Elon does the impossible, just late" and give him ALL the credit for Falcon 9 / Model 3&Y . . . At this point you are never going to think he is anything but a technomessiah.

Too many pension funds bought Elons lies.

Two years ago on the spacex Reddit someone was telling me emphatically that by end of 2025, there would be thousands of Optimus robots on Mars autonomously working to build a space colony in preparation for human astronauts. There is no amount of broken promises or false predictions that can shake these people’s faith, they just forget and move on to the next target.

And they're going to fail every single one, as usual. The house of cards will fall.

Curious if there are any real studies which document a reduction in traffic and are able to attribute that to the Tesla tunnels? From what I've seen they have such a small capacity and even that capacity isn't fully utilized, so a noticeable difference in traffic seems like it would be miniscule at best.

"Reduce traffic" doesn't necessarily mean "reduce it by a meaningful amount". I'm confident that it did reduce the number of vehicles on the road slightly, even if only by a handful. I'm also confident that a subway would have been a far better use of resources, and resulted in a dramatically larger reduction in traffic that would actually meaningful impact peoples travel experiences.

Ket Lines

Hey man, remember that asshole boat that blocked the canal specifically to fuck over elons promise?

“By next year… or… haha… maybe… yeah… so… like…. yeah… so in like… maybe… later this year… or… hahaha… I mean… like certainly… abundance… maybe we’ll start to see…” etc

Boeing entered the chat :(

"Just one more year bro"

> I'm also confident that a subway would have been a far better use of resources a basic bitch car tunnel, ideally going in both directions, like exist in a million places, would have been massively more effective than this private taxi nonsense

> The value of Tesla stock is simply in the value of the stock. It has no actual link back to the company itself It's linked to Musk based hype. It's why Tesla couldn't get rid of him even if they wanted to because the stock would collapse

I got something really nutty. It's floating in the toilet.

Isn’t every year like this and they just punt it again like always.

With Tesla bots they are always puppetted. They are nowhere near ready to autonomous control

>The small scale underground tunnel projects they built likely DID reduce traffic, so that wouldn't be quite a lie. They are just incredibly inefficient compared to train subway systems and so were an ill-conceived idea from the start. Construction of the tunnels created additional traffic. Workers, machinery, materials moving to and from the sites as well as any road closures during the construction. I bet there is a traffic engineer that can give more detailed numbers on the ridership required for the loop to be a net positive on traffic. Also, how much more efficient would a traditional metro be?

Half of the American populace was the promise.

Wasn’t this the year robotaxi was going to be i. 50% of markets? Last i heard there’s like 9 of them driving around Austin crashing into shit.

Because you live in an alternative universe where model 3 deliveries didn't start on time

Hard to prove you’re not a Nazi when you are

"I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year [2025]. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals." That man is world class bullshitter

\> "Tesla has set several key dates for its self-driving tech, robots, and new vehicles..." Yes, "next year", "next year", "next year" and "next year." \> "It's a critical year for Tesla" Because now that his political antics have toxified the brand, the implosion of the company and his empire is imminent. \> The vehicle is now slated for another unveiling on April Fool's Day. How appropriate, so we shouldn't be surprised to hear "next year." \> "blah blah blah ... vaporware"

Only Wile Elon Coyote, Stupor Genius could come up with a 2-seat taxi. I've seen 3-wheel jitneys carry more people than that!

In recent times, that had sadly become true.

2. You won't see me getting in any of those things, and I won't even ride in another Uber if it's a Tesla.

Yes, and SpaceX was supposed to land on Mars in 2024.

And don't forget the other half of the Musk Factor, which is if/when the final product is built, it will fall far short of what he promised, like those "130MPH autonomous taxis that carry passengers through tunnels in Vegas for only $1".

Yeah he seems to have his own version of the Magic 8-Ball.

And many others have been prosecuted for much less like Madoff, Holmes, and even Martha Stewart.

It's hard to tell exactly when, but I think this will be the year TSLA gets its wake up call and implodes, taking the whole Musk empire with it. It may also coincide with the burst of the AI bubble which is also imminent.

2025 was a disappointment and the stock still soared over 300x forward earnings.

And that statement was in July!

It's not even linked to hype anymore. It's Tulipmania in Full Self Driving mode. Eventually it will veer into oncoming traffic and crash.

Lol, no one ever demands Tesla make any deadlines and the stock goes up when they miss deadlines and targets. You can't apply logic to a system not dependent on logic.

A model Y costs around $40k to produce. Musk was claiming in 2019 that the owner of the vehicle would earn $30k in profit per year while they slept for 10 years straight by using their cars as robotaxis. You could then assume Tesla would take 50% of the profit, so the claim was essentially that each taxi would make $600k+ in profit over 10 years. That's $760,000 in today's dollars. And yet we're supposed to believe there's any real difference between Tesla producing a car that costs $40k to build and a car that costs $20k.... $20k in savings on $760k in profit, is only a net gain of 2.6% in income over 10 years. And these taxis are capital costs... so their depreciation is tax deductible, so the benefit of a 2 seater is even more negligible. There's almost no net benefit of building a 2 seater micro-cybercab over a 5 seat model Y, except that the 2 seater can only take 1-2 people... How about a parent with two kids? How about 2 parents and one kid? How about a group of 3-4 friends or co-workers? The fact is that it's all nonsense. The Cybercab was nothing more than another empty stage show to distract from 1) Tesla has still not successfully achieving a fully autonomous system, and 2) that they built a massive production plant in Texas with no demand for the product that plant was intended for... cyberdumpsters. The cybercab and the "robovan" both look like ill-thought out quickly pieced together toys. Anyone claiming these vehicles will do something special to drive additional profits or help Tesla rapidly deploy autonomous taxis is misleading you.

good luck

While I do think the AI bubble will collapse at some point, I'm not at all convinced it's imminent. What makes you think it is?

Level five SAE by 2018 baby!! Woot!

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Profitability. Not one company making ai models is even close to break even on their electricity costs, let alone the capx for infrastructure required to build the models. If a company spends 10x servicing every customer than it charges, sooner or later the rug gets pulled.

Exactly. The 2 seat taxi idea just boggles the mind and I don’t know why investors don’t see the obvious disconnect.

Bout to prove absolutely nothing except how utterly fucked they are when it comes to competing with BYD outside of the US

How is this different than any other year? "self imposed deadline" == "stringing investors along."

The signs are there. The same signs we saw in 2000 just before the Dotbomb.

A small bus or van design makes much more sense for any type of public transit.

No it isn’t a “prove-it” year because they’re manipulating the stock and getting flow from index etfs. Will continue going up until the SEC starts investigating.

FSD is harder to hype now but he's still doing it. But Optimus still has some legs, AI has some way to go, and he's on about space data centres now. It will crash eventually but who knows when.

Lmao. Deadlines. Tesla has not ever once delivered on a promise, let alone a deadline.

Will say with the tunnel part, it does reduce traffic. I couldn’t imagine how much worse the traffic in Sydney would be if we didn’t have tunnels under the city. Definitely don’t trust Elon being in charge of doing it though.

It's the Greater Fool Theory run amok.

Elon's Vegas tunnel is basically half a dozen cars in a single lane tunnel that goes in a circle. The cars are also selected ahead of time and you can't just add cars at will. It's basically a subway, but worse in every aspect.

Yea, I agree. But these bubbles can go on for much longer than you would expect. And I don't really see anything that screams it's gonna pop soon. Why do you think it will? (I took imminent to mean you think it will happen soon)

What are the specific signs you are seeing?

Well SpaceX is a con as well. Wasted billions of public money and have not got any closer to the moon than before they started. Will not ever be going to Mars, Musk just does not understand the issues with travel nor living on Mars. Space based data centres is the latest grift but won't really work. So all that is left is StarLink, private satellite launches and the Golden Dome which will waste money and go nowhere. xAi is burning through billions, has no real offering compared to the competitors who will struggle to make their money back as well. Hopefully Tesla stock takes a hit and the rest of his empire of lies collapses under the weight.

Supposedly his whole empire is leveraged against his holdings in TSLA, so when that tanks, it takes the rest with it. NASA and the AG should be going after SpaceX for breach of contract, and maybe even fraud.

Who's living in what universe? "No, the Model 3 deliveries did not start on time; Tesla faced production delays and did not meet their initial delivery targets."

If Musk himself didn't mix "cybercab" and "robotaxi" so much, they could have settled on at least one of those juvenile names. But oh well.

It doesn't prove that the US is empty of productive enterprises. The US is still a booming capital of technological innovation. What TSLA proves is that there is just simply too many dollars chasing too few investable assets. And probably also proves that right now we are in a stock market age of chasing hype and speculation (I mean, look at the current valuation of bitcoin for proof of that.) no matter how much that hype and speculation very clearly will not materialize in real revenue dollars.

TSLA is the de facto biggest meme stock/crypto on the planet at a market cap north of 1T. Well, maybe behind bitcoin if you believe that bitcoin is a fad as well like I do

A tesla in theory could earn $760,000 of revenue in 20 years, but only with an active human driver working multiple delivery jobs at the same time. And that doesn't include multiple battery changes required to get there as well. The FSD dream of a robotaxi printing you half of the median income of the US every year while you sleep was just so hilarious, really still is, given that people still believe it will happen at some point. How much would someone pay for an asset that prints them $30k in PROFIT per year? I can tell you it isn't $40K. It's far, far, above $40K. I mean, look at real estate. You'd be LUCKY to get 30k of profit per year on a $500K house. an asset printing a real $30K profit per year after expenses would probably cost at least maybe $500-600k. and thats running under the assumption that said asset would always produce that profit AND the assumption that it does not appreciate in value, hell, even that it depreciates in value (which imho is the reason why a $500K house wont rent for a 30k net profit typically, because the house price AND rent goes up over time) but anyways, the notion that a $40k car could do this is hilarious

I don't know if bitcoin is a fad or not, but I know it's bad. It's a speculative investment that enables crime and draws massive amounts of power. There's no positive to it, and a ton of negatives.

6 years later: none. at all

I don't think so. It will be held up by auto buying of SP500 and nasdaq funds right up until its very clear that their fsd/robotaxi dream is going to be beaten by either nvidia or google waymo (or even a third unknown company)

AI companies are still closer to a real intended product then the robotaxi, though. LLMs are massively useful even if the companies making them are having a very hard time generating revenue from them

its probably not leveraged in the same way that people think of stock market leverage, though. I can't imagine that musk needs the couple hundred billion that he holds in tesla shares. maybe a smaller amount like 10-50b. like its low enough that tsla could still drop 75% and he'd be fine. and we know the elon cult as well as buy and hold investors that are indirectly buying tsla when they buy SPY or QQQ will prop it up indefinitely

endless abundance inbound!!!! I for one cant wait!!!!

Abundance... of bullshit

That was the situation with both Meta and X yet they never stopped using it and I assume they ultimately settled over it

Just around the corner!! Elon is a master of moving goalposts, shifting to new goals entirely! 🤣😂🤷‍♂️