TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jan 05

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1pyihp0/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_dec_29/

Here's some quick 2026 predictions, if anyone else wants to follow the format. 1) Stock price by EOY or highest the stock price will reach in 2026?  I'll say $600. 2) FY2026 deliveries? I'm going to go with 1.48m 3) GWh of energy sold?  I'll say 66. 4) Robotaxis in operation?  Unsupervised, paid rides = zero for me 5) Optimus bots sold?  Zero. Tesla will continue to pump out social media content though and claim it did something "useful" in a factory.

I agree with most of this, but given that most of it is right, what drives the price to $600?

It's a meme stock

Some musky market manipulation to start the year. Who would have thought.

Last Friday I predicted they'd run the call buying program on Monday, turns out I was right!

More reports indicating Optimus is a fraud. Stock up 4%. Margin debt also at all time highs. Market going ho hum at a brewing geopolitical conflict. I’m sure an electric car company at 350x earnings is definitely going to be benefiting from a drastic increase in the supply of oil also.

Means cheaper supply of shit grade pleather for their ever shrinking vehicle production. Totally offsets right?

If you missed it, the crowdsourced robotaxi tracker now features an estimate of the number of robotaxis operating in Austin at the moment. Right now it's 5, in general it's in the 2-8 range. [https://robotaxitracker.com/wait-times](https://robotaxitracker.com/wait-times) These numbers are extremely bullish because it means they doubled capacity compared to 2 weeks ago, when it was more like 1-4.

5 taxis covering half the US population. It's absolutely unbelievable how this company executes. Make a promise and then deliver in the smallest way possible

Oh, of course. I’m just wondering when the rug will get pulled.

I think it went up 4% because of Trump-Musk dinner. I know it sounds stupid, but based on reactions in the past, I can guess that's what prompted cultists to buy it today.

All accurate except 2 (deliveries will be lower) and 4. They will definitely "launch" "driverless" robotaxis this year in Austin. They have the technology (FSD + remote monitoring + remote control to handle disengagements). They will be impossible to scale: they will all have remote safety drivers, they won't go above 35 mph, and Tesla will charge \~$5 for trips that cost them \~$100. I expect a fleet of \~10 such driverless cars in Austin by the end of the year.

Tezzlur enters 2026 with some 95k in inventory.

Stonkholders often say that Tesla is not a car company. This is technically mostly true, because if you do a rigorous sum-of-the-parts analysis, Tesla's growing energy storage business should be valued higher than its fast-declining EV business. In total, Tesla should be valued around $30-50 per share. The remainder ($400 per share) is what you could call the "Musk premium".

I guess Musk is in midterm mode already. What with rolling over for Trump this weekend and his laughable American flag avatar. I do hope he sticks his neck out again, people generally hate him a lot more than Trump for some reason.

I expect about half the US population is neither too old, too young, too infirm or too poor, to fly to Austin and take a ride in one of the 5 cars with driver assist software pretending to be fully autonomous, with an employee poised to grab the wheel, hit a kill switch, and/or jump into the driver's seat at a moment's notice. How is Tesla's market cap not in the quintillions already?

I think the rug pull will happen before the price has a chance to reach $500 again, let alone $600.

I think that hatred for Leon comes from the feeling of betrayal - he used to be viewed by many folks as a savior and smartest person alive. Meanwhile Trump - he was always a clown with shady dealings out in the open. His bar was set really low.

His post about meeting with Trump was met with a ton of screenshots of him saying he was a pedophile earlier in the year, saying don't buy our elections, etc. He plays the political game extremely poorly even trying to appeal to the dumbest people.

The cult subs sound just like this place these days. I think the realize something is up.

Pedos gotta stick together and help each other out.

I don't see Tesla's battery storage division being a big margin driver for that long. They just don't have any real competitive advantage against numerous Chinese vendors. And they're going to be caught completely flat footed when sodium ion starts taking over the market.

Elon runs the world’s premier national socialist csam factory. I think he is fine with pedophilia.

Who cleans all the loads?

Volume much lower than normal. Obvious manipulation. It won’t hold.

I wouldn't count on Venezuela dramatically increasing oil production any time soon. Oil majors would be kinda crazy to invest billions in infrastructure investment that'd probably just end up getting nationalized again the minute Trump is out of office and before it starts earning anything.

That wouldn't actually count as unsupervised though.

I'd be concerned about the batteries used as well.

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But robots and AI and space and Dan Ives’ clothes.

Bad day for Tesla. Yesterday Nvidia announced their self driving solution and boston dynamics said they will have first humanoid robots working in factories this year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Q3AM shows oil prices over the past TTM have moved out of the post-C19 "high" band ($60+) into the post-2005 "normal" range (~$50) and could very well keep failing into the sub-$40 "cheap" regime, as China continues to transition its fleet from ICE to BEV. Elon working to get his GOP buddies into power last year essentially gave ICE another 20 years of economic life in the US, thanks to the June CRA that backed-out California's all-BEV mandate, plus the July OBBB that eliminated noncompliance penalties on CAFE etc.

u/lacrewpanda you may have this in your archives, but how long has Musk been warning of "short term pain/turmoil" on Earnings Calls? I imagine we will hear something similar in a few weeks, but it seems like we are coming up on 2+ years of the TechnoKing warning of things being bad/rocky for Tesla in the short term.

Seeing NVDA green and TSLA red is just such a magnificent and beautiful combination. I would start celebrating if I didn't already think the market is going to shrug this off by tomorrow

I'll just sit here with my naked Dec 2026 $960c and $990c and watch the dollars slowly roll in. Admittedly, the news with Nvidia regarding self driving and Boston dynamics with their robots is proving that this is the reason why TSLA is valued how it is, given that the stock is actually red today for once. edit: im getting downvoted but what I meant is that TSLA is overvalued because of robotaxi and robot ambitions. I didn't mean to say that it is valued correctly here. That is obviously absurd. Stock should be closer to $50

They've truly done absolutely nothing since the model 3 and model Y success. Like, literally no new products that were good. Model 3 and Model Y catapulted tesla to stardom, but the cybertruck, the semi, the roadster, FSD/autopilot and their robots all have either been complete duds compared to how they were advertised (FSD, cybertruck, semi) or just straight up have not been released yet and admittedly probably never will (roadster, autonomous robots) I remember years ago being really excited for the roadster back when I was still a tesla-stan. And its incredible how 5 years have passed and they still have not released it. I hope a judge wrecks their shit and makes them pay back deposit holders + interest.

I’m sure an electric car company with declining sales and market share at 350x earnings is definitely going to be benefiting from a drastic increase in the supply of oil also Fixed that for ya.

Ha thats the fun part man. Nothing at fucking all will drive the stock price to $600 besides copium. I passed a cybertruck just the other day that had the license plate "MUSKAN". Looked new to me. People are still falling for the elon musk hype bullshit in 2026

There was perhaps a time when Tesla could claim they had a technological or production advantage with their EV batteries but that is far from the case today. It's even worse for stationary storage. Everyone has transitioned to LFP here, including Tesla - NMC is not really viable in this space anymore. In order to qualify for IRA production tax credits and avoid tariffs Tesla started producing LFP for energy storage at their Nevada plant. But while Trump's OBBB technically left the battery production credits intact I doubt Tesla will be able to meet the tightened FEOC requirements for materials like graphite. And that's just for the US market where I suspect they'll be hit by two things: first a broad demand contraction thanks to Trump's sweeping anti-renewable policies and second a supply glut coming from automakers switching large amounts of planned EV battery production capacity to stationary storage. Outside of the US they're just going to get crushed by Chinese companies that can do LFP cheaper and better than they can. Tesla's energy storage growth in 2025 may look impressive but I'm guessing they were fulfilling some pretty long lead contracts signed at least a year before completion and thus we're not seeing as much of the hit EV sales got from Tesla's reputational damage and competitive pressure... yet. That may not hold so much for 2026. So I'm pretty bearish on predictions of like 400%+ growth YoY. Though I'm sure he'll get xAI to buy another several hundred plus MWh. Maybe SpaceX will join in too.

I haven't really tracked that - I specialize in his fake optimism. But I do have this statement, made almost exactly 1 year after he predicted indefinite 50% yoy growth: *"Yeah. I mean, the risk of stating the obvious, it's not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe."* \- Griftoking, October 2023 So he's been dampering expectations for mundane car sales for over 2 years now, while he hypes make believe robots.

Q2 had this from the Chief Con Officer on the EC in July: Well, we're in this weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US. Slab incentives actually in many other parts of the world. But we'll lose them in the US. Across all of it at the relatively early stages of autonomy. On the other hand, autonomy is most advanced and most available from a regulatory standpoint in the US. Does that mean we could have a few rough quarters? Yeah. We probably could have a few rough quarters. I'm not saying that we will, but we could. Q4, Q1, maybe Q2. But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, only by the end of next year, I'd be surprised if Tesla, Inc.'s economics are not very compelling.

>as China continues to transition its fleet from ICE to BEV Worldwide oil consumption has climbed every year since 2021. There's a chicken and egg tug of war between the cost of oil and the health of the world's economies...and also a game of chicken among oil producing nations who collude to fix production and then stab each other in the back. I don't claim to know which direction oil prices will go on any given day, but I wouldn't base it on the ICE to BEV transition in any type of short term.

China is only ~10% electric so it's going to take a decade for electrification to really hit. My previous thesis on gas prices in the US was as the IRA electricification and ZEV mandates bit, corner gas stations would get fewer and fewer next decade and legacy gas would be priced more like milk. Now with last year's Project 2025 takeover I kinda see $3 gas from here on out. (The oil majors would rather sell gas @ $3 than no gas at all.)

"Ride or Die" on puts isn't probably the right trading strategy but it certainly is entertaining.

Since it's Tesla 'ride and die' might be more appropriate.

Humanoid robots in factories is just a stock pumping con trick no matter who does it

No oil, no economy.

Energy storage? That's just a big pile of battery cells in a shipping container that we hope won't catch on fire. Why does anyone need to pay Tesla prices for those?

They will have to announce lay offs soon. The longer they wait, the more its costing the company, but the share price will nosedive when they do, and that will hurt Elmo more.

I agree, but it's interesting to see someone outpump tesla. Humanoid robots in general don't have many uses where specialized robot wouldn't be bettter.

A human can work at several times the speed, more accurately, doesnt need recharging, etc etc. Oh and if work slows down you can fire them.

That was some Tesla killer announcement by Nvidia on Monday "At the CES conference in Las Vegas on Monday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced Alpamayo, Nvidia's autonomous vehicle AI system, which will come to the U.S. in Q1 2026 available in certain Mercedes-Benz vehicles. Huang added that the plan is to roll out the autonomous vehicle system in Europe and Asia after the U.S. launch." I just watched the full video on YouTube, which has the following YouTube Shorts Clip to give you the summary visuals: [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MKrdX2EhUNo](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MKrdX2EhUNo) Looks exactly like FSD. There is no way that Tesla can hype this away! Licensing to Mercedes in Q1 2026... I thought Tesla was going to do that with FSD... I guess Tesla is going to have to be a quantum company now.

National socialist csam company once the board approves buying xai.

> There is no way that Tesla can hype this away! Licensing to Mercedes in Q1 2026... I thought Tesla was going to do that with FSD... I guess Tesla is going to have to be a quantum company now. It was always a delusion. Not only does Tesla not have a plan for how that would work in practice, but you'd be tied up in a relationship with the world's worst supplier who could break something on your fleet in one drugged up haze.

Fred has Europe's final numbers. Sales are down in all markets except Norway, an overall 27.8% drop. I doubt things will get much better for Tesla in 2026 - they have zero new products coming out and surely other OEMs do.

I don't know why, but that domain is banned on Reddit - not just this sub, but all of Reddit.

If the decline carries on, they will be down to 167k European sales in total next year.

which is crazy too especially if its stock subs because on a long term chart the stock still looks strong. when in reality it should be half the price it is today if not even lower.

That's....a lot more than your prediction that Tesla would never top 8k-10k in monthly sales again there.

There is still time.

Could be wrong on my thinking here, but I imagine since Tesla is set on a camera only approach to FSD, most other companies will not be interested in its software, because most other companies are looking to utilize lidar. And Tesla's software won't know how to utilize lidar, only cameras.

Never mind the mods were just too busy making money from their cars while sleeping - looks like they did a sweep.

I think most of Tesla's brand damage has flushed itself out by now - and now its a matter of their stale lineup and competition. A 27% drop is spooky terrible - highly unlikely it happens 2 years in a row. I'm sure they'll sell over 200k cars in Europe next year...they might practically give them away, but they'll keep the metal moving.

Remember when Berlin was going to ramp \*faster\* than Shanghai because of "lessons learned" or some such?

Murdoch is about to dump $27 million in stonk. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000196858226000010/xsl144X01/primary\_doc.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000196858226000010/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml) For some reason, this bag dropping is legitimized by setting up 10b plans ahead of time...so I always like to look at when the plans are set up. This one was set up on May 20, 2025 - less than a month after Technoking said: *"I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year."* I have to ask: If Murdoch really believed that, wouldn't he be dumping all his other investments and selling his blood/spare kidneys so he could buy more of that sweet, sweet TSLA stonk? Why on earth would he choose to *sell* this goldmine? Surely, he doesn't think Technoking is lying, right? Because as a member of the BOD he could not remain silent about that. I guess he's just really, really stupid and he's selling his magic beans before they even grow a beanstalk. What a shame he's missing out on those for sure robo-riches.

Remember when Shanghai was only going to serve the Chinese market?

James Murdoch has been such a disappointment. I thought he maybe cared about standing up to far-right authoritarianism but apparently that stops outside of his own familial disputes. He really is just Kendall from Succession.

> "Well that's just exactly what Tesla is doing," Musk posted on social media following the Alpamayo announcement. "What they will find is that it's easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution." Oh so now he's forthright about that. Looking briefly at what was [released](https://github.com/NVlabs/alpamayo) I feel like Huang is overselling this...

It's funny that the true believers put the blinders on when members of the BOD are selling stock. They will say "selling for tax reasons" but wouldn't they all just take loans against the shares if they truly believed?

Seems that Shanghai can serve all of Asia, Europe, and Australia... Now that's impressive coming from the company that was building new factories every 2 years.

We're moving on to American brand damage at this point. The only place Teslas sell is Norway and we're active sabre rattling the arctic.

So the main Tesla sub is beyond a ghost town - the highest post in the last year is of the Optimus bot falling over and it has fewer than 4k votes. Average posts seem to be in the low hundreds - so 3.4 million subs and a few crickets of action. The mods really got what they wanted. **Now Obviously this is not encouraging engaging with that sub although I expect most of us were banned long ago**

It took the mods a week to get to my shitposts. Too many others. They are probably up 24/7 deleting/banning.

Considering pedo guy just said he is going to continue to fund king pedo who is now saber rattling at Denmark i find it very likely Musk is going to have a bad year in Europe.

well last July Elon said he thought they would probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by last week . . . it's gotta be close now!

xAI just raised an additional $20B. This is a crazy amount because it almost doubles their fundraising so far. Before that they had raised $27B in total, so now they're at $47B. It was recently reported xAI was burning about $1B a month. This is almost certainly higher now. Interestingly xAI employees have taken to X to defend public, nonconsensual generation of porn using images shared by women on X. They see it an important part of their mission. \-- EDIT: It's worth pointing out that the $20B round is not a traditional cash-for-equity VC deal. It's a mix of equity and debt and it uses the "circular financing" structure now common to many AI deals. * Equity: $7.5B of which $2B is circular financing from Nvidia * Debt: $12.5B in high-interest junk debt collateralized by GPUs (12.5% interest rate) On the debt side, they created a SPV rather than having xAI hold the debt itself. This is the entity that officially owns the GPUs. xAI now has $17.5B in high-interest debt, generating $2.2B of interest, and $5.6B of interest + principal payments. xAI has $0.5B of revenue, plus $3B of revenue from X (2.5B in ads and 0.5B in data licensing to other AI companies). That's $3.5B of revenue in total. It's kinda wild -- every new raise increases their burn, so they have to keep raising to keep up with their burn, and so on recursively. You may think +20B is a lot but it's actually less than 1.5 years of burn.

It has been sold as success but this deal is terrible for xai. It seems the investors don't believe in them very much. 2B$ from nvidia is basicly nvdia buying their own gpus to pump the numbers. 12B$ for GPUs shouldn't be even seen as investment. Basically the deal is GPUS will be bought for this money and rented to Xai for the huge interest. No way Xai can pay this loan of so they will never own those GPUs. So the actual money injection is only 5.5B. Not much in this space.

They don't even have posts about most positive Tesla news. It's really strange place.

I expect xAI will eventually implode and take Elon's empire with it. xAI has 1.5-2 years of runway right now. It has no path to profitability. They're not going to be able to raise much more, this round might be the last or second to last. It will be all over in 3-4 years max. Meanwhile Tesla is about to turn cash flow negative so Elon can't pillage the Tesla coffers to keep xAI going. Tesla will need a bailout in 4-5 years. Elon's only hope is the SpaceX IPO.

X has $3B in revenue? That is surprisingly high. Twitter pre Musk had about $5B and I thought most advertisers had left. Blue checkmarks income?

X revenue is somewhere between 2.5B and 3B. About $0.5B of that is licensing X data to other AI companies and API access, which is a revenue stream that did not exist pre-acquisition. Blue checkmarks represent 250M-500M. So advertising revenue was slashed by 50-70% since before the acquisition. Twitter used to be a profitable company.

Tesla bulls are on X, not on reddit.

Don't fear, he will be rolling a robotaxi off the line every 10 seconds, maybe even 5.

At the moment Elon could save Xai if he wanted. Tesla has over 30B in cash and he has hundreds of billions in Equity. The problem is that using any of this money to rescue Xai would signal the end.

Should last them a couple of weeks.

[https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbm53Mzlpa2F2bXh0OGpyOXRuenp3ZTJkb2djaW45bW95ZGJ5NnduMiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3oz8xVyxeOgWj5rcSA/giphy.gif](https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbm53Mzlpa2F2bXh0OGpyOXRuenp3ZTJkb2djaW45bW95ZGJ5NnduMiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3oz8xVyxeOgWj5rcSA/giphy.gif) They've all collectively decided to bury their heads in sand until FSD is solved and the robot messiah arrives.

When was the last time Elon tweeted about Tesla? His tweets are 80% political garbage and 20% Grok/xAI promotion. Maybe 1% SpaceX if even that. Does he even remember Tesla exists? This is what a CEO "back at Tesla" and "fully engaged" looks like.

In today's 3 year Elonversary: How it started in 2014: *"This is going to sound slightly crazy, but my father also had a share in an Emerald mine in Zambia."* How its going 3 years ago today: *"The fake emerald mine thing is so annoying (sigh). Like where exactly is this thing anyway!?"* \- GigaBootstrapper, Jan 7, 2023

In fairness, folks who believe that Elon got his rich from his dad's emerald mine are factually wrong. The facts: * His dad had partial ownership of an emerald mine in Zambia, while living in South Africa (no evidence that he ever had any hand in running the mine, he was just getting income from it). * His dad claims that the mine made their family quite wealthy. Unclear if true * Elon was not visibly wealthy when he came to the US. His dad contributed to funding Elon's first startup by about $30,000, which was not very significant.

xAI, the company that produces deep fake CSAM

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Sure, he isn't really a nepo emerald tycoon...but, its relevant when it comes to his general bullshittery about his rags to riches origin story. The emerald mine claim is part of a larger tale he tells of flying in his dad's personally owned private plane. His dad paid tuition to send him to a privatized high school, was a property developer, owned an auto parts store, two houses, a yacht, airplane, luxury cars, built aprivate hunting lodge, had mineral investments and small time political power, and apparently dad had $30k lying around to give his son. That's not poor. This all flies in the face of his tales about living on $1 per day and showering at the YMCA.

"$54.20?? Sold to you!" Not an Elon fan but man Twitter got bloated and 'out of control' (like pre-Jobs Apple) towards the end.

eh, there's always the SolarCity playbook. Where's Kimball when you need him??

He spent a lot of time tweeting about Tesla's CEO pay package!

Yes, he comes from a background of privilege (at least his childhood in South Africa). Albeit not moreso than most other "self-made" Silicon Valley entrepreneurs (like Zuckerberg).

Twitter pre-Elon was famous for being the worst-run of the big tech companies, by far. Most employees were just hanging out.

$30k was a decent chunk of cash in the early 90s

In early 90s? A young dipshit getting that kind of cash from daddy is a big pile of money. Granted i grew up broke as fuck to lower middle class parents.

Let's talk Tesla Diner The Good: Great place to stop and charge in a relativelybusy area. There are some homages to the good that this company has done. Overall, Tesla Diner is a good place for people to charge and sell Tesla Merchandise. Ordering food from your car. Instead of using your phone's small screen you can use the cars bigger screen. Plus you can watch a movie or TV shows like a drive in movie. The Bad: The food is overpriced and the menu is shrinking. Drive in Movie -- poorly placed screens . . . Overall it was more comfortable to just play a movie on the Model 3 screen instead of looking up and cranking my neck. The best place to view the Tesla Diner movie is upstairs -- But the sound and noise problems make it unviewable upstairs. The Ugly: Tesla/Elon glazers . . . The people you run into at the Tesla Diner are some of the dumbest people in the world. Anyone that can rub two brain cells together know that Elon's promises and especially his timelines are meaningless. Honestly, the worst thing about Tesla -- The Tesla fan boys. Elon is like an entitled and petulant child, do I blame the kid or the parents? The biggest problem with Tesla is all the fan boys that support Elon no matter what stupid crap he does. Optimus -- Not always there, when Optimus is there. . . you realize how slow the Tesla Assembly line would run if they put Optimus in charge of anything. . . the robot is slow and poorly coordinated -- This is likely due to lag and delay from human remote operator.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-unveils-35-billion-performance-155350891.html Meme stock CEOs are catching up on Leon.

This is like when all the scam companies started announcing crypto treasuries. Now they're announcing massive CEO comp packages. New grift trend just dropped

I was employed by a major tech company in the early 90s, and no, $30k was not a lot of money for a startup to live off of.

Think of what the value case for xAI currently is. It's pretty much Musk's ability to attract capital and their holdings of data center assets. Twitter's corpse doesn't really make any money and nor does xAI. They're literally paying through the ass for new capital to buy up a rapidly depreciating assets for the most part. No one gives a shit about xAI itself which is probably there's an SPV involved, the cards are the value.

People who went to school with Elon remember him as a massively spoiled rich kid always throwing a bunch of money at dumb schemes. He claims to come from a "lower middle class household" but there's pictures of him as a kid next to his father's high end Rolls Royce. Like how does a broke person turn a vacant apartment building into an attempted nightclub? I know Elon claims he was slumming it at Zip2 and had to limit serving the website to day hours so he could code on it at night because they couldn't even afford two computers... But he lies about everything else soooo

promise the stars, pocket Mars

nah, it would just show up under Tesla's "investments" line like it usually does.

Today's 5 year Elonversary commemorates an often forgotten imaginary vehicle from Tesla. In addition to the $25k car, Flying Robotaxi, 2nd Gen Roadster and Cybercab, add the Chinese designed and developed vehicle to the list: *"Something that would be super cool … So we’re going to do it … is to try to create a China design and engineering center to actually design an original car in China for worldwide consumption. I think this will be very exciting,”* Fun fact - since he made that statement, TSLA has announced zero new vehicles in development that are anywhere close to going into production.

Here is another fact.. in University Elon was able to hop on a plane with his gf to take her to visit mommy and gift the gf a $50K emerald necklace. https://www.richmond-news.com/world-news/college-photos-memorabilia-of-elon-musk-auctioned-for-165k-5824794 https://www.rrauction.com/auctions/lot-detail/346384406430090-elon-musk-14k-gold-necklace-presented-to-his-college-girlfriend-with-original-photograph-1995/ > According to Gwynne: ‘When we went to visit Elon’s mother in Toronto during the Christmas break of 1994, Elon gave me both the small ‘love, love, love’ note and the necklace. His mom had a number of these necklaces in a case in her bedroom and Elon told me they were from his father’s emerald mine in South Africa—he pulled one from the case. And because I had not gotten him anything as a Christmas gift (and I felt very guilty about that), he said we would consider the necklace an early birthday present for me. I wore the necklace for a number of years on and off, but it’s mostly been in my jewelry box for the last 10 years (always reminding me of Elon, of course).’ the struggle is real.

yup, with a $1.35T market cap you'd think he'd have a separate Berlin and Shanghai design studio going, to produce cars for their respective markets. I tolerate my 2023 MY for its 0-60, AWD, charger availability on the interstates, and ease of charging from home (controllable via app), but it's butt ugly, and the redesign is even worse!

Anyone need my extra Tesla credits at 80% price?

Gamestop is such a weird meme stock. At least Tesla has a real business in an expanding industry, just a ton of lies. Gamestop is shrinking in a dying industry (physical media) and the stans are celebrating as the deck chairs are rearranged each quarter.

Linda Evangelista "I don't wake up for less than 10,000 dollars a day” vibes. The oligarchs really think they're untouchable superstars.

One of my favorite Elon predictions ever, from **March 19, 2020**: ***"Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US by end of April"*** Only a once-in-a-generation brain like his could look at the exponential curve of Covid cases up to March 2020 and predict it would go to zero within a few weeks. There were **880,000** new Covid cases in the US in April 2020, compared to 180,000 in March 2020 (a 5-fold increase). There were also 60,000 Covid deaths in the US in April 2020. At the peak, there were **20,000,000** monthly covid cases in the US (a 110x increase compared to March 2020). Also, this banger: **March 6, 2020:** *"****The coronavirus panic is dumb.****"* The Coronavirus pandemic is estimate to have killed 18M-20M people, a death toll comparable to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic or to the First World War.

Tesla has a shrinking business in an expanding industry, is that better?

It sounds like he just stole a necklace from his mom's jewelry box to gift it to his girlfriend, which is pretty funny and very Elon like.

In the pool of European countries with daily data available, Tesla is off to its worst Q1 start in many years. 89 cars sold up to day 8, compared to 275 over the same period during the disastrous Q1 2025.

Supply limited!!!

"physical media" Hey now, are you already forgetting that they went all-in on NFTs?

[https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d3044](https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d3044) oof.

Nah, late 2023 was a good time to get my HW4 MY. Elon took $6000 off list plus I got $10,500 of govt money no longer available. Plus the right stalk hadn’t been deleted yet… I’d certainly buy it again with these financials

They have something like 130 showrooms in Europe.

There was something on BBC about robots at the CES event in Las Vegas, optimus or Tesla didn't get a mention, Boston Dynamics and NVIDIA self driving did though.

Elon's dinner date threatening more countries should help out here

Two day Elonversary: *“I think they’re getting clean rooms wrong in these modern \[chip\] fabs. I’m going to make a bet here, that Tesla will have a 2nm fab, and I can eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab.”* Truly one of the dumbest people alive

NVIDIA have made Tesla the betamax of FSD

Jobs asked that the machines be painted in bright, colorful hues, matching those of the striped Apple logo used at the time. But after spending so much time going over paint chips, then-Apple manufacturing director Matt Carter finally had them installed in the usual beige. Jobs noticed this during one tour of the factory, writes his biographer, Walter Isaacson, and demanded that they be repainted in the colors he requested. Carter objected and explained that the paint could cause problems for precision machines, and this was proved correct when one of Apple’s most expensive machines, painted bright blue and later dubbed “Steve’s folly,” stopped working properly. Carter quit as a result of the disagreement; “it took so much energy to fight him, and it was usually over something so pointless that I finally had enough,” he told Isaacson.

IMHO, he's laying the groundwork for a capital raise later this year. For some reason, TSLA has to be an AI company...for other reasons they can't just buy chips...so obviously the once in a generation beautiful mind of Elon will wave a magic wand and build his own chip fab - you know, to make life interplanetary or something. So TSLA has to hunker down and raise more $$ to save humanity. I also suspect there might be a government teet to suckle with this too - the US has a legitimate national security interest in not relying on foreign chips as much as we do - hello government $$.

I went to the CES directory - no hits when I search "Tesla" or "Optimus". Apparently the world's leading robotics company didn't bother to get a booth...kinda like how they don't show up at car shows. But I assume the attendees were whisked around at 150 mph in robots on wheels.

Cars or ketamine?

Headline from 2020: # Tesla will open a European design center in Germany, in addition to US & China If I had a nickel for every car Tesla has designed in the last 5 years...well, I'd be screwed if I needed change for a parking meter.

So I made the following determination -- I will buy another Tesla when Tesla releases an L4 ADAS that takes legal liability for any accidents when in FSD mode. If they are truly the only car manufacturer selling this and everyone else is "So far behind it's hard to tell who's in second place" I will buy another Tesla My Tesla loving family doesn't know what to do with that answer

Well thats strange if Tesla didn't show up.

Hard to justify spending that advertising and trade show money - they have better things to spend it on like CEO pay

TSMC is already building a FAB in Arizona. A rational administration would back a proven industry leader rather than Tesla... BUT we are in illogical times so the odds of the government throwing money at Elon to burn as he has no idea how to build or operate a FAB is a likely outcome.

TSMC is legacy chip fab...and they've never even landed a rocket.

At those shorting Tesla: While Tesla is not doing well in terms of sales, they have a ridiculous amount of cash and short-term assets and very little debt. What would be a reason for their stock to crash?

$40B of cash is worth ~$15 per share

My take too, but paying $8000 when the ability to sleep when HW4 is driving is approved

And set to be incinerated as part of the manufacturing process. Cash is converted to cars. Factories are blast furnaces where cash goes to die.

Plus rolling out cybercab to half the population in 2025. Now he has to invent a Time Machine along with everything else

I was kind of joking about it before, but it would not shock me if he starts babbling about Tesla is now a memory company that's going to build the biggest DRAM and NAND factory in the world and buys up an old Intel fab to do so. Much like that $1.5T of military spending the US government would somehow find some money for a second CHIPS act.

It fertile ground - I have no clue what a DRAM or NAND is, and I imagine most people don't. Another opportunity for Musk to put himself out there as a subject matter expert, tossing around jargon and acronymns most people don't know. What I do sort of suspect, though...chip fab requires strict QC, right? Makes me chuckle to think TSLA would even attempt it.

Yeah I mean the statements he had about cleanrooms were completely insane, especially for someone who claims to be super knowledgable about rocketry and by extension fluid dynamics. DRAM is a type of semiconductor memory used to make RAM. There's been a growing shortage of it as the AI bubble has sucked up supply and future supply commitments. I got a DDR5-600 64gb kit for $199 earlier this year and that same kit is no longer even in stock and would cost $825 from the exact same store I bought it last I checked. Prices have gone parabolic relative to actual production costs. NAND is another type of memory used as non-volatile storage in solid state drives and it's started to shoot up lately too as data centers have against started to buy up supply. I ended up buying an NVME drive the other day for a project I'm working on and the cabinet for it at Microcenter was damn near empty too and prices have gone up significantly (nowhere near as bad as RAM yet). Sandisk's stock was up like 30% the other day too. Anyways there's this big shortage of computer memory products and ridiculous margins accompanying it that's similar and probably worse than the GPU price surge that prompted the Dojo project. Seems like fertile grounds for another Musk tantrum that ends in him swearing they're going to disrupt the entire industry and do everything better than everyone who's made a business out of it for decades.

True, but also a huge amount of cash to pivot and make Tesla into something else. I am not a fan or Telsa or Elon at all and in fact have shorted the company, but at least it is a scenario one must consider.

Not true, Tesla has a positive margin on its cars, is close to debt free and as they do not develop seriously any new models, their CAPEX is also limited.

Not sure why you wanted to get Musked, but you're already down \~25% in two years on your OTD amount. Kind of bad.

Yes the market is already pricing in that something else(s) since Elon gone done killed the current biz

The robotaxi direction is either wall-to-wall capex or a hobby like the tunnels or diner.

Intel’s original bread and butter prior to PCs was TLAs, yes

For $40k OTD I’ve got a great car and that’s all that matters this decade. I’ll see how well it holds together but as of now it’s fine

Probably not quite that old lol. But yeah I'm sure they have some 14nm factories they're likely already trying to sell off or lease out that Musk could probably buy up for an ill advised entry into the semiconductor market.

I wouldn't call $13.78 billion very little debt, especially not if we're calling $41.64 billion in cash on hand a ridiculous amount.

"...to pivot and make Tesla into something else." Please point me to a "something else" with a 300 PE ratio? TSLA is already investing in flying cars and robot armies...what's left to ~~grift on~~ *pivot to*? I'm sure other companies have $40 billion on hand (allegedly), so if there's gold in them there hills, said other companies (Apple, Amazon) would surely have already invested in it, right?

R&D expenses are substantial, up to nearly $6 billion in 2025 and growing rapidly. There are plenty of fixed costs involved in keeping factories, stores and offices open and running. Downsizing and consolidating them takes a lot of time and I don't think Tesla would want to go too far as that probably wouldn't be a great stock signal, but who knows.

Even if this actually happens and Tesla is the only one doing it they wouldn't be alone for very long. That's assuming they weren't overestimating the vehicle safety.

Taking bets: will Tesla shut down the Berlin factory or the Fremont factory first? I'm betting on Berlin.

Try to do a valuation analysis. 90% of the valuation (not an exaggeration) is based on Elon's lies. Tesla, fairly valued for its EV business, energy business, robotics and robotaxi R&D, should be a $40 stock at most. So going long TSLA or shorting TSLA boils down to: do you think more people will believe Elon's lies in the future, or fewer people?

>as they do not develop seriously any new models, their CAPEX is also limited Become a trillionaire with this one simple trick! Maybe Toyota will catch on and quit making new models too.

I'd wager Freemont, because it can be excused away as putting a stick in California's eye, but I think they'll both be open at the end of the year.

I'm willing to bet $5 that he'll close Fremont in response to [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/california-wealth-tax-proposal-leaves-billionaires-with-little-way-out.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/california-wealth-tax-proposal-leaves-billionaires-with-little-way-out.html) There'll be lots and lots of angry tweets about how how hard white billionaires have it in CA and how he needs to stand up for this discriminated class.

I definitely think it gives him a face saving way to shut it down. However, those 20 billion poverty ending robots are supposed to be built at Freemont...so he'd have to tap dance and shuffle a little on that one. And all the Musgasms over the perfect use case for the Tesla semi being the Sparks to Freemont battery haul would be interrupted. I think he'll do everything in his power to at least shadow staff all the current factories, for "appearances". Exhibit A: The Buffalo factory.

But Elon said . . . I'm just kidding with you, nobody should believe a word Elon says. Like every other pathological liar. You usually tell the truth, you lie when you think it will benefit you, and in the rare instance one of your lies ends up having a grain of truth or appears clairvoyant. . . You play it up as the greatest thing that has ever happened.

For 2 dipshits and a computer - still a lot of money.

You might not remember this show, but I've got the theme song of Welcome Back, Kotter playing in my head.

Some of the cash may actually be tied up in China. It should be obvious if this is the case, but Tesla doesn't use conventional accounting practices and has a new CFO every few months so who knows? Does anybody actually know? Whenever I ask questions about GF Shanghai, no one seems to have any answers.

> True, but also a huge amount of cash to pivot and make Tesla into something else. They are trying to do that with the Robotaxi, Optimus Robots and the Diner. All of these are just burning money and will likely never lead to anything.

Yes. Everyone has a different definition of "wealthy" it would seem, but all the verifiable info points to a privileged upbringing. The emerald mine sounds like a tax-dodge or shady side-hustle. It certainly wasn't some sort of generational wealth engine like a deBeers diamond mine. IIRC, man in the Valley who engineered the sale of Zip2 to Compaq for Elmo's first windfall was a family friend Erroll installed when it was clear that the kids didn't have a head for business. So even if Elmo didn't start out with millions in a trust fund, his early millions were due to his family's connections. As well as being in the right place at the right time.

Vinnie Barbarino and the Sweathogs are unforgettable :) And thank you, life got in the way, and is still in the way, but i started lurking about a month ago popping by when I needed video game tips from Reddit. Dunno why that comment spurred me to action, but I’ll slowly crawl my way back :)

As far as I remember the S and X are only made there. Good way to kill three birds with one stone. Though killing the S would be pretty embarrassing.

Yeah the S and X are only produced at Fremont currently. I think there's a few reasons they haven't shut them down despite their terrible and declining sales numbers. One is that Musk can't make a big stink about relocating the production and jobs out of the state of California because it would be a complete end of production and not a refresh. It likely wouldn't be worth the capital to set up lines in Texas or Nevada to produce them either at this point and that leaves just milking the existing production lines at Fremont for all their worth. Another big thing is that apparently the take rate on FSD for the S and X is much higher, which makes sense I guess if you consider who's probably buying them at this point. But it's something like 50% versus 15% for the 3 and Y according to some remarks from their engineers earlier this year. That means some additional margin on the software side despite low utilization probably causing problems from an actual manufacturing standpoint and I would wager that Musk personally likes being able to point to that number with investors and analysts to show the value of FSD as a product, it's maturity and probably as an indication of where he thinks the 3 and Y will be in another year in terms of profitability.

The same argument can be made for closing the Berlin factory. Elon greatly resents Europe and is currently fighting unions in Berlin. He has an excuse to do it. And the Berlin factory has lower utilization than the Fremont factory.

Google has 100B cash, makes 100B per year and has actual unsupervised Robotaxis on multiple cities.

And you supported a well known white supremacist in the process. You must be so proud.

> [Bump] (https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1q4hrz5/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jan_05/nyej1ze/) from earlier in the week - /u/ObviousCommonSense > Two day Elonversary: > “I think they’re getting clean rooms wrong in these modern [chip] fabs. I’m going to make a bet here, that Tesla will have a 2nm fab, and I can eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab.” > > Truly one of the dumbest people alive I know the true believers aren't thinkers but think about this ASML took decades to get to 5nm EUV lithography and TSMC , from a search: > ASML and TSMC have a critical, symbiotic relationship: ASML makes the essential, exclusive Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, while TSMC is the world's leading chipmaker that buys these multi-million dollar machines to produce the most advanced chips for companies like Nvidia and Apple, making TSMC ASML's largest customer and a key driver of innovation in the chip supply chain. Their partnership dates back years, involving co-investment in R&D, with TSMC's demand fueling ASML's advancements and ASML's technology enabling TSMC's market leadership. But sure the world leader in manufacturing knowledge that builds cars in tents with wood from Home Depot and cant figure out adhesive is going to be WILDLY successful in the most stringent manufacturing for consumer products on earth.

Seven year Elonversary today: In response to a graphic of a hovering Delorean...*"The new Roadster will actually do something like this...Will use SpaceX cold gas thruster system with ultra high pressure air in a composite over-wrapped pressure vessel in place of the 2 rear seats."* The eXcrete that launched a thousand keyboard fluids experts, all ready to Tesplain to us muggles how "cold gas thrusters" work.

He's telegraphing his next move: "Turns out nobody builds chips good enough for FSD to work, so I've got to dip into my beautiful mind science brain and come up with the GigaGizmoCyberChip. Nobody else can do this. FSD will definitely work once we scale up our in house chip production...next year^(TM)"

Eight days into Q1 and Tesla has sold six (6) cars in Norway. They sold 47 through the first 8 days in January 2025. Through the first six days, they sold 12 cars in the UK. They sold 55 in that same time in 2025.

So what you are saying is that GigaBerlin needs to be ByteBerlin. I'm curious what the minimum production is for that factory before they take it offline for months at a time.

Tesla won't sell 300,000 cars this quarter. Maybe 280,000. And that would be with big incentives driving margins to 0.

Betting markets are at 350k, fwiw.

TSLA up +2% on news that the Optimus program was a scam all along (surprise!) and that Tesla (you know, the world leading AI company) is giving up on building its AI and outsourcing it.

Do you have a website where you have all these Elonversary written down. . . Other sites add lots of Elon quotes that miss the mark. . . But yours are right on point over and over again!

It was 336k in Q1 2025 and all signs are pointing towards a much worse Q1 2026.

Tesla stock rises today to own the libs.

Well, no, not really. Q1 2025 was artificially down due to the Model Y changeover or whatever.

And elon now says FSD only has 80% of the training it needs. This stock is immune to negative news

They did a slowdown and called it a changeover

Yeah, no. They had very low deliveries and blamed it on "changeover". When your factories are running at 50% capacity at the best of times, a changeover should not result in an any drop in production if you're half-competent at planning. It was just an excuse.

Just a very sloppy spreadsheet I add to whenever Technoking makes a prediction.

Please call him Techno-messiah. . . He is more than just a king. . . But the King of Kings. (Sorry if blasphemy)

Wasn't that essentially Dojo? I thought "AI Day" had CGI renders of chips Tesla would make in house (but never actually did, of course). Dojo 2 Electric Boogai-loo.

The grifts are starting to blend together, but my memory is that was the "D1" chip - "designed" by TSLA, but actually manufactured by a company in Taiwan...manufactured as in past tense, cancelled in 2025. I guess Dojo wasn't of Giga-Great as Musk claimed it would be.

Tomorrow is a very special TEN YEAR Elonversary: *"In \~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"* \- Griftimus Prime, Jan 10, 2016 Since that time, we've had all sorts of variants to cloud the issue: Actually Smart Summon, Autopilot, Navigate of Autopilot, 14 versions of FSD - some "supervised", some not, and probably some stuff I've forgotten...autonomy day, AI day, Cybercabs...but TSLA is nowhere close to achieving this ~~lie~~ *puffery*. If Reddit and myself still exist on this Earth in 10 years, I'll be marking the 20th Elonversary of this never happening.

GM taking another $6B charge to scale back BEV investments. (now that there's no CAFE / ZEV penalty for ICE, expect to see a lot more V6 and V8 engines later this decade...) Going to be curious to see how the US domestic car market evolves now that both solar and BEVs aren't being incentivized, and ICE is no longer penalized. With $6+ gas, BEV was an easy decision back in 2022, but now it's closer to $3. I'm a big BEV fan and hade a 2015 LEAF and a 2018 LEAF before I got my 2023 Model Y (with home solar my "gas" cost is ~20c/gal GGE most months – and that cost isn't actual cash but lost net-metering credits). Tesla boosters think Tesla is competing against other BEVs, but in fact they're competing against V6 and V8 ICE alternatives.

Given the amount of upvotes I feel obligated to say this is a joke about how detached the stock price is from financials.

Detached from fundamentals, but closely tied to Elon's call buying program.

Thanks for the correction.

Elon had may as well be saying that TSLA market cap needs to hit $3 trillion for FSD to finally be safe.

Semiconductor contamination control is something we learned the hard way in the 1970s but Expert at Everything Elon thinks it's unnecessary because uhh.. I have no idea why actually. Because cheaper is always better?

>(now that there's no CAFE / ZEV penalty for ICE, expect to see a lot more V6 and V8 engines later this decade...) Thanks Trump. And Elon for helping him get elected. I get the criticisms with CAFE standards and support reform but the people who claim that they overall did more harm than good for emissions reduction were out of their mind. But there's a very good chance this all gets undone in three years so I wouldn't count on a lot of long term impact.

wasn't just Trumpo tho, this was red meat for the GOP too

I mean sure but we've had plenty of Republican administrations that didn't wholesale repeal CAFE compliance requirements. Including Trump 1.0. This administration is also way more materially antagonistic to renewables and accepting the science of climate change than any previous one. And very few people are talking about it. People have gotten really cynical and numb about anything politics but they need to realize that yes, things actually are actively and continually getting much worse and they keep voting for it.

"The next Administration must return the federal fuel economy program to the limits established by Congress. The standards issued by NHTSA must be reset at reasonable levels that are technologically feasible for ICE automobiles and consistent with an increase in domestic auto production and healthy growth in the sale of safer and more affordable new vehicles." and: "The federal government should therefore exercise its preemptive authority over CARB and take all steps necessary to invalidate any inconsistent fuel economy requirements imposed by CARB, including its ban on sales of internal combustion engines" https://whatisproject2025.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-19.pdf This is the mainstream GOP position and will survive this admin as long as the GOP retains some grip on Congress. (they know where their bread is buttered, and it ain't BEVs)

Yes, Project 2025 is synonymous with Trump and most likely JD Vance if he were to be elected. But this definitely will not survive a Democratic trifecta even by the slightest of margins and there's a chance it doesn't survive even if Republicans maintain a slim Senate majority.

This is true in the US, where US manufacturers are completely pulling out from the BEV market, while it is basically illegal to import non-US cars. Tesla is competing with gas cars in the US (and with Lucid and Rivian to a very small extent). In Europe and China, Tesla is still competing with other BEV manufacturers, such as VW, BYD, Xiaomi, Renault, Stellantis, Geely, Hyundai, etc.

Nah. Betamax was the better solution.

A Democratic congress would have to precede a Democratic president, because from here on out, a GOP congress will never certify a presidential election that a Democrat won.

https://www.investigatewest.org/a-starlink-lab-exposed-unsuspecting-workers-to-toxic-chemicals-records-show-spacex-didnt-act-until-the-state-got-involved/

The new congress is seated before J6 anyway.

Good point. Hopefully JD, as president of the Senate, will have the proceedings go smoothly. Slash s.

Trump: "Project 2025?? Never heard of 'em!" But yeah the battle will continue should the Dems win back power like 2006 and 2018-20.

GM and Ford took big writedowns because they are scaling back EV production. Meanwhile, Tesla has been producing the same two car models in Berlin since the factory opened, the factory is running at ~50% (and declining!!) capacity and its value has even gone up according to Tesla accounting! How does that make sense? It really looks like Tesla will try to fake it for as long as possible, meanwhile Elon is preparing some crazy stunts, like merging Tesla with SpaceX.

Elon is quickly becoming enemy no 1 in the UK, Europe and Australia.

He has been openly opposed to the ideals of Western Civilization for some years now, but his rhetoric has escalated sharply these past few weeks. He's a bona fide Nazi now, openly. The same kind of radicalization is happening across the entire tech industry, as well. I wonder if it's because of Twitter.

>He has been openly opposed to the ideals of Western Civilization for some years now I don't think that anyone is more committed to the ideals of "Western Civilization" than Musk. >He has been openly opposed to the ideals of Western Civilization for some years now He always was open about it, but in the usual way that most US Nazis are, by talking about "birth rates", "Western Civilization", "national security", "immigration", "the future of humanity" and so on. He was doing the unofficial but somewhat obvious 14-words routine. But since most people don't know much about Nazi ideology, no one really saw it, it took him doing two actual full-force Nazi salutes in public for the people to start noticing. Like always, he was lagging behind other rightwingers on this, or at least US rightwingers, who know that they should stay away from actual Nazi iconography and gestures because that is the one thing that the broader mainstream society doesn't accept, but you can have a Nazi ideology. You sometimes see Nazis openly marching in the streets with swastikas, but there are very few and usually they cover their faces in public. Since then, he has retreated online even more and now just agrees with what the mainstream rightwingers are saying, instead of pushing some of his own ideas, like doing two Nazi salutes at a Trump rally.

'X' is ASCII 88, too LOL he platforms and even boosts the worst antisemitism 24/7, which is the first 'odd' thing I noticed about him, actually.

Maybe we just have very different ideas about what the ideals of Western Civilization are... Elon seems to be more in line with legacy South African culture than actual Western culture.

India and Indonesia (third and fourth most Twitter users by country respectively) now too. I wouldn't count out Japan (second biggest) either, they haven't formally condemned them over Grok sexual abuse imagery yet but they've had various ongoing legal disputes.

>'X' is ASCII 88 Oh that is crazy. He really is a genius!

I'd say he's Brevik-adjacent but that's unfair to geometry