TSLA Terathread - For the week of Dec 29

Good morning and welcome to the final Terathread of 2025! Here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1psvwby/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_dec_22/

A year ago, I made some predictions about 2025. Its time to see how well (or not) I did: *TSLA will have a layoff in the 1st half of the year* \- **FAIL** *TSLA will log zero SAE Level 5 miles driven* **-** Too Easy: **SUCCESS** *The CFO will resign* \- I'll take the L, but in April the Director of Accounting Controllership resigned: **FAIL** *TSLA will deliver no more than 2.25 million cars* \- I was way too bullish: **SUCCESS** *Chuck still won't be able to make his left turn* \- Too Easy: **SUCCESS** *TSLA will generate at least $2 billion revenue from regulatory credit sales* \- Jury is still out, but first 3 quarters generated $1.451B…its close, but looking like a **FAIL.** *Technoking will have another child* \- Seldon Lycurgus, born in February 2025 to Shivon Zilis: **SUCCESS** *NO VP or other senior officer in the company will purchase stonk, other than options* \- big miss, after Technoking bought: **FAIL** *TSLA will still not have divulged the semi's weight* \- Hard to know for sure, their "Senior Manager for Semi Truck Engineering, Dan Priestley" has stated 23k lb for the long range. I'll take the L, but this doesn't seem very official: **FAIL** *TSLA will deliver fewer than 100 semis* \- Hard to know for sure, but Grok says "single digits" were delivered: **SUCCESS** *Adrian Dittman will make an appearance on a quarterly call* \- I took a long shot: **FAIL** *The $25k model will cost more than $25k* \- Why on earth did I think they'd really deliver this car at all?: **SUCCESS** *Fred still won't get his free Roadster:* **SUCCESS** *TSLA will not deliver a swim kit for the Cybertruck:* **SUCCESS** *Technoking won't get his $56 billion* \- Damnit!!!: **FAIL** *TSLA will deliver zero autonomous robots:* **SUCCESS**

Elon's no doubt burning the midnight oil on the release to get his taxi fleet available to half the US population by NYE, as promised in July.

2 year Elonversary: *"Starship will make life as we know it multiplanetary for the first time in Earth’s \~4.5 billion year existence"*

He's got a few other projects to work on too - shipping Optimus, delivering 200k more Cybertrucks, shipping the new Roadster, and taking the "supervised" out of FSD, all this week!: *"I think we've got a good chance of* ***shipping*** *some number of* ***Optimus units*** ***next year.****"* \- Grand Poobah of Grift, Jan 24, 2024 *"I see us ultimately delivering on the order of 0.25 million, something like* ***0.25 million Cybertrucks a year*** *in North America, maybe more."* \- Griftimus, Jan 24, 2024 *"Tonight, we radically increased the design goals for the new* ***Tesla Roadster****. There will never be another car like this, if you could even call it a car. Production design complete and unveil end of year, aiming to* ***ship next year****"*\- Griftimus Maximus, Feb 27, 2024 *"We do expect actually to start fully autonomous,* ***unsupervised FSD*** *in Texas and California* ***next year****"* \- Tele-Fibber, Oct 10, 2024

6 year Elonversary: Crazy Gem Lady: *"Elon, will you make smaller versions of Boring bricks so artists such as myself can make things with it? I would totally wrap some as jewelry. Would love to buy from you and support."* Clay Conman: *"Yeah, Boring Bricks 🧱 are def coming"* Anyone else remember all those magical $0.10 boring bricks for public housing?...to be sold out of a "Brick Store"?

We keep making long lists of reasons why colonizing Mars is impossible, it is incredibly hard to just land humans on Mars for a very short visit. I wish someone would sit down with Musk in a Rogan-style podcast and just spend two hours talking about problems with colonizing Mars.

The bar that Elon has to clear in order for his fans to claim success is just incredibly low. Apparently a 5-second staged clip of a Tesla cruising at 20 mph without a driver is enough to claim that Elon has shipped a fully driverless robotaxi service.

The crazy thing is those of us making these lists aren't "experts" is rocketry or space travel...all it takes is a few ounces of common sense to punch holes in the fantasy. But it would be really cool to find a space expert (not under Elon's spell) to walk us through what all it would take.

I thought I'd follow this up with my 2026 predictions, many of them identical to last year's: *TSLA will log zero SAE Level 5 miles driven and deliver zero autonmous robots* *Technoking will have another child*  *Fred gets no Roadster (nor will anyone else)* *TSLA will deliver no more than 1.55 million cars* *Musk will interject his $$ into midterm political campaigns and back losing candidates* *Auto wipers still won't work* *No Cybertruck will swim* *The $25k model will not exist*

Here are some predictions of my own: * Under 410k deliveries in Q4 2025 (Q4 2024 was 495k) * Under 1.4M deliveries in 2026 (2025 is at \~1.62M, 2024 was at 1.79M) * Under $0.80 of adjusted EPS in 2026 (2025 is at $1.40-$1.60, 2024 was at $2.40) * Under 15k cybertrucks delivered in 2026 (including deliveries to Elon's companies, which might end up being a majority of the total) * 0 Optimus robots delivered in 2026 * 0 Roadsters delivered in 2026 * No unsupervised FSD (L5) in any vehicle sold by Tesla to consumers * Fewer than 500 driverless robotaxis (emphasis on driverless, with no safety monitors) deployed by the end of 2026, all in limited geofences * At least 100 Elon tweets in 2026 about the threats menacing the White Race * At least 3 explicit references to Nazis from Elon in 2026, in the spirit of his public Sieg Heil from 2025 or the time in 2022 where he posted a meme with a Wehrmacht soldier * At least one call for war against European liberal democracies * At least 5 positive endorsements of the Putin regime * At least 20 tweets about playing videogames * At least 50 tweets or retweets of AI-generated images of scantily clad women

Elon is talking about a self-sufficient colony, so you also need people to tell you how to grow stuff on Mars and how to survive the low gravity and radiation.

Yep. My litmus test has always been: "Has SpaceX been conducting several years worth of biosphere style experiments and simulated low gravity training on Earth?" - If the answer is "no", then Musk is just bullshitting out his ass when he predicts a "Mars Colony" in some short number of years.

How are the analysts not calling out this bullshit still employed?

You misunderstand the nature of their job. Their job is not to provide accurate analysis, but to pump the share price of specific companies. They're still employed because they're doing a great job.

Anyone else remember "Battery Day"? Claims of "56% cost reduction"..."54% more range"...Elon would turn ~~water into wine~~ *salt into lithium*. Seals honked their car horns in amazement at the tabless battery breakthrough. Since its been reported today that Tesla has reduced its supplier contract by 99%, I wondered how ubiquitous these paradigm shifting tabless batteries were. "Hey Grok, which size batterries that Tesla uses are tabless, and which car madels currently use those batteries?" >Tesla's tabless battery cells are the 4680 format...Cybertruck — All variants (including Foundation Series, AWD, and Cyberbeast) use second-generation 4680 cells...Model Y — Early Texas-built Model Ys (2022–2023) used first-generation 4680 cells in limited volumes, but production shifted back to 2170 cells for most variants So its down to the lowly Cybertruck - supplying cells for maybe 25k units a year. I know, I know - Tesla is hoarding these cells for the Semi. That's been Tesplained to me many times.

CT, Semi and the Roadster 2.0 were all built around the 4680 "revolution". There is no way that the supplier would be writing down the supply deal by 99% if even one of the two promised vehicles (Semi, Roadster) were about to enter mass production soon.

I missed this one from a few days ago; >Musk: "Am changing the Tesla mission wording from: Sustainable Abundance To Amazing Abundance. The latter is more joyful" - Again, it looks like Musk fully embraced the Abundance grift. Why not, it is literally made for people like him. Removing "sustainable" is at least somewhat honest, the "sustainable future" and "saving the planet" stuff was aimed at getting subsidies from the lib governments (like Biden, Obama and the states of CA and NY) and from the EU. Now the subsidy well is starting to run a bit dry, so that specific grift is over.

Hmmm...major projects will be further delayed past Musk's most recent promises. Sounds like material information that surely TSLA will disclose to shareholders.

Battery Day was once an important annual event. Now people have totally forgot it.

It’s all so predictable now. A random account publishes a 5-20 second clip, and countless Musk dickriders and bots then flood the site with claims FSD is “solved”. The Twitter “for you” lists have basically become unusable, they’re so full of Tesla bullshit. At least Elon is getting a little bit of value back from his $42billion bucks.

So Tesla fan boys have a hard time defining the word hyperbole, so I thought I would give the Elon Musk spin on on the following definitions If Elon promises something, and it is delayed indefinitely or never going to happen -- Hyperbole If Elon promises something, and it is delayed but still promising it will come out "next year" -- aspirational leadership If Elon promises something, and then an engineering team is able to utilize billions in tax payer dollars to make Elon's dream come alive (Model S/3/Y and Falcon 9) --- Elon's prophetic, and "He always delivers, just sometimes he's late"

funny how Toyota sold Elon an entire factory location for $42M. Granted, it was a stranded asset given NAFTA etc but it did give Tesla the momentum to get to the Model Y reveal. 10 years ago I assumed Tesla would remain a boutique maker like Fisker then & Lucid now. I was pretty wrong about that.

NY State gave Tesla a free factory and a bunch of subsidies on top of it, valued at around $1 billion.

He still can do it. 48h and counting

1.55M deliveries is way too generous. It's max 1.4M, and 1.3M is a more realistic estimate.

That way they can buy more shares before the price spikes. Buy now at today's discount prices!

Newsmax, the right wing news network, advertises on X a lot. Sometimes they actually advertise their stock. This is legal I suppose, but highly unusual. The stock has not done too well since its IPO in March.

If they didn't they would be gone like the guy who said the trump casino business would fail so Trump had him fired. Than Trump casinos went broke as expected.

Admittedly, I severely over-estimated for 2025, but time will tell. 1.55m would mark a 3rd straight year of decline - between 5-10% less than 2025's final numbers. Seems reasonable to me. Sales are rebounding in China, and the yoy stuff for Q4 in Europe isn't looking as bad as Q3 was - so thinks are starting to stabilize. One thing to keep in mind: Not everyone is 100% in tune with Musk, his graft, or his politics. Teslas are just cars with cheap lease terms to most people. They'll keep moving some metal.

Before the 2025 shareholder meeting, Tesla was running nonstop ads on Twitter to promote Elon's comp package. Such ads are effectively free since Twitter is owned by Elon. I'm guessing we will eventually see Twitter ads promoting TSLA stock.

I'm disappointed we didn't get a surprise announcement on Sunday to pump the stock. Will it come tomorrow? Or on New Year's Eve? Or will we get nothing? Are we headed into a big quarterly deliveries miss (on Friday, 400k-410k vs company-compiled consensus of 423k) with zero hopium to soften the blow? If so we should see $400 again soon.

You’re probably right but the price isn’t going to go up forever. There’s a real potential the price will fall like a rock.

I was expecting something new and big to pump the stock. I guess he just keeps forgetting about Tesla when he is getting high & posting.

Momentum is fading. This thing will pop in conjuction with the rest of the market bubble. First thing to dump will be a near fundamentally worthless equity held up by 10 years of lies by a political drug addicted CEO

I think it will fall by 20-30% even without a broader market correction (in case of a correction, it will fall like a rock). But I was hoping to see $500 before that.

The only thing Tesla ever manages to deliver up to spec and on schedule: new comp packages for Elon. Fun fact: Elon has extracted more money from Tesla so far ($40B, only counting stock sales, not even counting stock-backed loans or direct benefits) than Tesla's lifetime profits ($37B). And that's after receiving over $20B in government subsidies.

The firms they represent probably have loans on Elon’s stock. He has to have 10s if not 100s of billions in loans and someone is collecting billions in interest on them. Those financial institutions have a vested interest in pumping the stock. If the stock ever crashed they are unlikely to be able to get anything from the stocks that are collateral.  When this house of cards crashes I expect it will take a bank or two with it.

I think he is getting way more value than 44b by running the propaganda there.  I didn’t understand at that time why he bought it, now I know.

https://electrek.co/2025/12/29/tesla-tsla-does-something-unsual-q4-delivery-results/ I 'love' how there's drama about the ~400k quarter when the stock is priced for 4 MILLION per quarter (@$6k profit each: $6K x 16 million x 15 P/E = $1.4T)

Huzzah!

Never be in any doubt that he didn’t want to buy it. But seeing as he was forced, he’s determined to milk every ounce of value out of it. The bot army and trolls were bad before he owned it, now the site is largely unusable.

Indeed. In the last 5 years, TSLA has always been the canary in the coal mine for a broader market downturn. Happened in 2022 and early 2025.

388k vs 488 k. A 25% drop in sales in just one quarter.

So it looks like the Tesla stock is up premarket on news that Tesla managed to set 2025Q4 delivery expectations lower than the consensus was just one day ago.

Even worse YoY

Crazy Cathie - who Elon says does the best forecasts - has a 2026 bear case of 10m unit sales and a bear case of 17m. Tesla's own compiled estimate released to the public yesterday (for the first time?) shows 1.75m units in 2026.

10 and 17 million is too low. She should go for at least 25 million. No one cares, nothing matters. Just a few years ago she was predicting 6 million for 2025. Tesla isn't even close, yet Crazy Cathie's TSLA price target has only gone up since.

Now that we have final numbers (sort of), we can evaluate this statement made by Technogrifter in 2020: "We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030" We all remember 2020, right? When other OEMs had to store incomplete cars waiting for chips...and TSLA just shipped them *without* chips but *with* wooden parts - and had a sales jump. The future looked so bright. So what rate do sales have to grow at, to make it to 20m? A mere 64.9% each year for the next 5 years. No problem. Fun fact: 20 million would be DOUBLE Toyota's sales...yet TSLA's BOD sits on their hands and lets their mouthpiece spew nonsense. Another fun fact: 1.64m deliveries puts TSLA far behind Renault in deliveries - Renault's market cap being $12b, or less than 1% of TSLA's market cap.

Tesla P/e will equal the share price on the lower revenues.

Sustainable abundance only as sustainable as govt cheese

How is it that there hasn’t been any lawsuits regarding the name optimus? Did musk blatantly steal the name for his dumb robot fantasy?

Bets on Q4 deliveries? Tesla is trying to anchor expectations lower, by widely sharing its self-compiled analyst consensus of 423k vs prior WS consensus of \~450k. This could mean two things: \- They know they will announce a number between 423k and 450k (maybe 430k) and they're trying to setup a beat. \- They know they will announce a staggeringly low number (maybe 400k) and they're trying to do damage control. Which one is it? I am betting on deliveries no higher than 410k.

Troy is at 406k, fwiw

Some 2026 predictions inspired from posts below: -Tesla will discontinue the Cybertruck -Under 1.6m unit sales -Two new Elmo children announced -No Roadster -Fewer than 1k Semi units sold -No Optimus units sold -More than 25 "robotaxis" crashes reported in Texas -No Cybercabs sold / in use -Energy & Storage stagnate as the renewable tax credit ends in the U.S. -Quarterly net loss posted, probably by Q2 -More sex pest allegations come out against Musk -Another model "refresh" announced, used as an excuse for declining sales

Musk is defending his giant pay packages today online - [link](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G9bdXPUWgAAhmEa?format=jpg&name=medium) - Fred's response; >This is an oversimplification to such a high degree that it should qualify as a lie. It is meant to attract unsophisticated investors – something Musk has been cultivating for years. $TSLA share price has been completely dissociated from "producing more products and services" for years. In fact, Tesla's deliveries, revenue, and earnings are all down over the last 2 years. The stock trades on hype and Elon Musk is the one generating this hype. >He has created a nice racket for himself, threatening shareholders to leave if he doesn't get more shares, and since the share price is based on the hype he generates, they feel they have to give it to him or the stock will crater. >If you put all the $TSLA hype aside, and you look at actual real value created and cashed in, Elon Musk has taken all of it for himself. >__Elon sold about $39 billion worth of Tesla shares since its inception while Tesla has made only $38 billion in earnings net of losses since inception.__ >At this rate, with earnings going down and Musk getting massive options, it's a trend that is likely to continue.

It would be so funny if Tesla retconned Wall Street expectations from the actual 440k to 420k, but then didn't even reach 420k.

Remember when Tesla was going to start producing "more affordable models" in 2025 and the stans all said it would boost unit sales?  Wonder what happened.

Two years ago to the day I picked up a 2023 Model Y out of inventory for $6000 off list. Surprised he's not running the same playbook now.

"To take a bit of risk here I do want to give a rough estimate which is that I think 20 to 30 percent vehicle growth next year." -Technoking, October 2024 Actual result - down some 8% YoY

Probably because Tesla used to get subsidies on both sides of the sale (tax credit for the customer and EV credits for Tesla), but now they don't get anything. So they could partially offset the $6k discount, now it is a bit harder to do.

Relax guy - People are just waiting for the new Model Y!

Personally, I would not be posting my L's of financially supporting a fascist and fraud.

At $13.50 per burger, the Tesla restaurant generated approximately $675,000 in revenue in just over two months of operation. Should Elon Musk consider open Tesla restaurant in every city of USA or even overseas? There are always people not minding paying $13.50 burger especially TSLA share holders who want to help Elon.

https://www.boringcompany.com/music-city-loop "Vegas Loop has transported more than 6,500 passengers per hour and 35,000 passengers per day." When did this happen?

The risk he was referring to was outright lying.

Things Tesla fans genuinely believe vs. reality: * The Model Y was the #1 global bestselling car in 2025! (reality: it was the Toyota RAV4) * Tesla's automotive business is growing by double digit %! (reality: it shrunk by 9% in 2025 after shrinking by 1% in 2024) * Tesla has launched a driverless robotaxi service in Austin with 100+ cars! (reality: there are 1-5 cars active at a time, and all of them have a human driver, err safety monitor) * Tesla has removed safety monitors from its Austin robotaxis last week! (reality: nope) * FSD is 100x safer than human driving! (reality: robotaxis in Austin \*with safety monitors\* get into accidents at 10x the rate of a human driver, and Austin is the best case scenario for FSD) * Tesla is a top-10 company in the world by revenue and profits! (reality: it's not even top 100) * The Cybertruck is the top-selling electric truck by far and that's why Ford discontinued the F-150 Lightning! (reality: the F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck in 2025, despite being a big flop) * My Tesla makes me look cool and high-status! (reality: lmao loser)

Reading X is like getting transported into alternate reality. People just claim stuff that can be proven false within 5 seconds. Elon himself made best selling card claim despite data not being available yet on account of a year and month not ending yet.

Haven’t they expanded it by basically running on the street? It’s definitely not the same system that was first built, so the numbers can’t be compared anymore.

Nothing really new for this sub, but it is fun seeing this coverage in mainstream EV publications. - [Elon Musk’s top 5 Tesla predictions for 2025 that didn’t happen](https://electrek.co/2025/12/30/elon-musk-top-5-tesla-predictions-2025-didnt-happen/) >1. The 20-30% EV Volume Growth That Became a Drop >2. Robotaxis Covering 50% of the US Population >3. The “Mind-Blowing” Demo That Vanished; In the summer of 2025, Musk took to X to tease what he called the “most epic demo ever by the end of the year.“. The craziest part about this prediction is that it was just for a “demo” and Tesla had months to deliver and never did. >4. Tesla Semi Production Kicked Down the Road Again; The Tesla Semi program has been a saga of delays. Tesla had officially guided for a start of production in 2025. >5. The Missing Army of Optimus Robots; Musk had set an ambitious goal of having “thousands” of Optimus humanoid robots working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025. The CEO even mentioned a goal of producing “5,000 to 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025.”

posting random shit to Xitter and have your wealth ratchet up +$15B must be addictive

There was also a rumor going around that they had actually cracked the production process for the 4680's dry electrode process finally too and would begin scaling into full production late this year. Obviously this works against that too.

As usual it's not even about the delivery number ultimately. If it were they wouldn't be posting years worth of forecasts from analysts. It's just about distributing those estimates for next year and later out to the public now to have something to point to in order to say that the growth story is still clearly intact and even these credible Wall Street analysts believe so. It's also yet another indication (along with the $1T headline compensation package) that Musk's forecasts and statements are increasingly having less sway with the public.

I read they also have $13 hot dog. And fries are relatively cheap at $4. Fountain drink is $4.50. A meal with tax and tips probably cost you $25.

Tomorrow is the final Elonversary of the year - eleven years ago, Elon moistened the cargo shorts of his flock: *"We are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a solid metal snake. For realz"* \- Snake Swindler, Dec 31, 2014

How's Elon's [driverless Robotaxis coming to Austin in 3 weeks](https://electrek.co/2025/12/09/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-claims-driverless-robotaxis-coming-to-austin-in-3-weeks/) looking? 🤣 🤣 🤣

And somehow the "world's largest robotics company" still can't plug itself in... meanwhile Roombas have been doing that for over a decade and they just declared bankruptcy. Coincidence?

As we draw the year 2025 to a close, the gap between Elon Musk’s "hyper-exponential" projections and the operational reality of the Tesla Robotaxi network remains significant. Below is a list of recent promises and their current status as of **December 30, 2025**. **From June & July 2025:** * **Claim:** "Unsupervised" (empty driver seat) capability is **already solved** and **safety monitors will be removed within months**. * **Fact check: MISSED.** As of December 30, all robotaxis in Austin still have a safety monitor. There is no evidence that unsupervised capability is solved. * **Claim:** Autonomous ride-hailing in **half the population of the US** by the end of the year. * **Fact check: MISSED.** The service is currently limited to geofenced portions of **Austin** and the **San Francisco Bay Area**. This addresses less than 3% of the U.S. population geographically, far from the 50% target. Of course in practice given the number of vehicles in operation (1-5 at a time in Austin, maybe 20-30 at a time in the Bay Area) we can't say the service actually covers 3% of the population, realistically it's more like 0.001% -- a few thousands of people. * **Claim:** "The service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a **hyper-exponential rate**." * **Fact check: MISSED.** Growth has been linear and slow. After launching with roughly 10 vehicles in June, the fleet has grown to approximately **30 vehicles** in Austin over six months (with 1-5 active at any given time) a growth rate lower than that of competitors like Waymo during their early stages. * **Claim:** "The start in Austin is intentionally small... The plan is to scale to **thousands of vehicles** within the next few months." * **Fact check: MISSED.** Six months later, the combined fleet across both Austin and the Bay Area is estimated at roughly **160 vehicles**, a far cry from "thousands."

**From October 2025:** * **Claim:** "Over **500** robotaxis in Austin by year end" and "a **thousand or more** in the Bay Area." * **Fact check: MISSED.** As of late December, the Austin fleet stands at **\~30 vehicles** and the Bay Area fleet at **\~130 vehicles**. Tesla is currently missing its October year-end target by over 80%. **From December 2025:** * **Claim:** Removing the safety monitors **"within 3 weeks"** (by end of 2025). * **Fact check: MISSED.** As of December 30, all robotaxis in Austin still have a safety monitor.

my first batch of puts I bought in July immediately before those promises are all wiped out (bought at $330) but I felt good having taken the under after hearing his wild-ass promises in that EC. The fuck happened to the "We are expecting to increase the parameter count to what we think can probably tenfold the parameter count." assertion too . . .

For some reason, they're now offering Model S and X with lifetime free Supercharging again here in Germany. Also free "Premium Connectivity." Odd move. You'd think they'd push sales of the mass models. I doubt anyone buying a car that starts at 110 grand cares enough about charging costs to be swayed by this.

Better margins maybe?

Sure. But they sould a grand total of 109 Model S in Germany in 2025. But I guess it seems to be working. I assume they started offering this in November, because the registrations spiked to 40, from 14 being the peak in March. I guess they're trying to shift remaining inventory.

Will Tesla report negative earnings next month? Please share your thoughts on this.

Nah, They've done less that 400k deliveries in prior quarters this year and still had positive earnings. Also, I think they'll be able to hold on to some of their ZEV contracts at least until EOY. I suspect 2026 will be terrible for TSLA, but 2025Q4 will be merely disappointing.

I assume these weren't built in Germany?...But rather Tesla has already gone to the expense of shipping them there? I think they're just trying to move some metal before end of year. Free supercharging has been a remarkably effective carrot with Tesla buyers, again and again. Somebody close to me owns two Teslas...and they absolutely do not need to save money with free supercharging - but there's some sort of consumer endorphin rush about getting something "free", and they go to the effort of driving to a charger.

I was expecting the CAFE stuff to zero out in Q3 but I guess the legacy makers signed stupid contracts going out, too

No, only the Model Y is being built in Brandenburg. Moving inventory was my assumption, but the site gives delivery dates of March. That isn't "standing around, waiting" times, that's "ship it from the US" times, it's about the same delivery span as the Model 3, which are shipped in from Shanghai. German-made Ys sit at January deliveries. I guess the big models have the added margin to give away Supercharging without too much loss, but it's still not exactly the models that are going to change their sales luck.

Its all very opaque to us on the outside, but my assumption is the contracts will give Tesla a little runway to coast before they're cancelled - at least until the end of the year. And we have to keep in mind that halfish of their credit sales likely go for sales in Europe and China (yes even China has a carbon credit program), since more than half of their sales are overseas. Also, the revenue recognized from credit sales has been around 2.5% of revenue lately - so its not a total death blow...although if I assume credit sales are 100% margin, they accounted for over 1/3 of profit.

Tesla Stan David Moss just announced he completed the first ever coast to coast trip using FSD ver 14.2 and had zero disengagements! https://xcancel.com/davidmoss/status/2006255297212358686 Naturally he doesn’t have any video evidence or anything, you just need to take his word. Most of the Stans in the comments seem willing to accept this claim at face value, although Fred Lambert is asking for proof (and not getting any.)

The replies are just hundred and hundreds of blue check accounts responding with "congratulations". Around 50% seem to be bots.

The claim of a coast to coast autonomous drive (as promised for 2017 by Elon) is unlikely to be true, because it's extremely inconsistent with every other quantified report we have about FSD v14. FSD v14 is at 1 disengagement per 85 highway miles (highway miles would be most miles on this trip). The trip is supposed to be over 10,000 miles. Maybe he got really really lucky? But then again there is zero evidence this trip happened as described. The "proof" is telemetry data which is fully editable before upload. There's no video, nothing that would be remotely challenging to fake.

last week I drove on FSD down to LA fine, 250 miles. Highway miles are the easy miles as long as the car is smart enough to dodge random crap (like ladders) laying in the road.

Should we have this sub on X also? Because people who need to see this content are on X only.

250 miles with zero interventions is plausible because it's statistically consistent with reported FSD v14 data. Let's use the data from [https://teslafsdtracker.com/](https://teslafsdtracker.com/) : * 85 highway miles per disengagement * 3000 miles per critical disengagement Let's be generous and use the second metric, which is more appropriate if your goal is to never touch the wheel unless it is to avoid an imminent accident. At that rate, the likelihood of **your 250 miles trip** having no disengagement is **92%**. The likelihood of a **10,000 miles trip** having no disengagement is **3.5%**. Do you see the problem here? The guy is obviously lying.

No. They will reported an adjusted EPS of $0.10-$0.20. The more interesting question is whether they will report negative earnings in Q1. I think they will do everything they can to avoid it, including cooking the books.

Man, you ponied up to buy a Model Y - one of the worst depreciating vehicles on the planet - *and* paid / are paying for an advanced cruise control Level 2 SAE from a known fraudster?

Why do you think Q1 is worse than Q4? Just a seasonally worse quarter in general?

I see $0.25-$0.30.

"Hey Grok, list all the predictions Elon Musk made about technology, services or products made available by his companies in 2025." >Tesla >Full Self-Driving (FSD) unsupervised/autonomous driving: Achievement of true unsupervised autonomy, enabling widespread robotaxi services. >Robotaxi network launch: Deployment of a functional robotaxi fleet (including Cybercab vehicles) operating autonomously in multiple cities (e.g., Austin and San Francisco Bay Area initially). >Cybercab (dedicated robotaxi vehicle): Start of production and initial availability/deployments. >Optimus humanoid robots: Production of thousands (goals mentioned included 5,000–10,000 units), with thousands working in Tesla factories by end of year. >SpaceX >Starship reusable heat shield: Development of a fully (or highly) reusable orbital heat shield. >Starship overall progress: Significant advancements toward reliability, implying more frequent flights and progress toward Mars missions (though uncrewed Mars departure was later targeted for 2026). >xAI / General AI >Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): AI surpassing the intelligence of any individual human (initially predicted for end of 2025, later adjusted).

"Grok are you sure about these? Please follow up - did Tesla really deliver FSD? It is my understanding they have not applied for, nor received regulatory approval to do this anywhere. Also, are you really sure the Cybercab is "available" - I see no evidence of that. And really, how many Optimus robots have really been produced, and are any of them truly autonomous?" >You're right to question this—my previous summary was based on Elon's predictions, but the actual delivery in 2025 fell short of full, widespread unsupervised autonomy. >No, the Cybercab is not "available" for purchase or widespread use yet—my prior mention of initial availability/deployments was optimistic based on predictions, but reality is more phased. >Production numbers for Optimus are far below the ambitious predictions (e.g., 5,000–10,000 in 2025), and true autonomy remains limited to basic tasks. Production numbers: By mid-2025, only a few hundred units were built, Not truly autonomous yet—capable of scripted tasks like jogging, folding laundry, sorting, or simple assembly via imitation learning (human demos

"So the major prediction Musk made that came true in 2025 is limited to developing a heat shield for Starship, correct?" >You've reached your current limit >Sign up for free to continue using Grok

Seasonality is the main factor. But also they will sell much fewer cars in China and in Europe due to changing incentive structures (like in Norway). They will deliver about 300k cars in Q1 unless they commit some form of fraud (like selling tens of thousands of vehicles to Elon's companies)

Very disappointing that TSLA has been continuously falling for 1.5 weeks straight and never even touched $500. Why were they running the call buying program so hard throughout the first half of December then? I hope we go back to pumping next week. Elon, send some more lies and empty promises our way, please. And keep spending hundreds of millions on weekly call options.

as a holder of an OTM May put (strike $330) I'll take finishing the year closer to $400 than $500 as a win, LOL

A lot of credit sales had shifted to the US as of last year. They earned almost $1B more in credit sales in 2024 due to manufacturers backing off their own BEV programs and buying more CAFE credits as a result. So in theory they should see a VERY substantial hit to regulatory credit income going forward. Now the cadence of how exactly that regulatory credit revenue is recognized has never been spelled out in super deep detail from what I've seen. They could simply lag a quarter too.

What are the odds there wasn't even one stopped fire truck along his route?

Fairly consistently, Q1 has been a dog for Tesla - probably weather related. But also - sales keep declining, and Tesla has no new models (other than the imaginary ones) slated to come out anytime soon...so it seems likely they'll keep declining.

Are you looking to buy puts or anything? I'm trying to figure out how to play it. I was originally thinking buying 60 day puts in mid Jan, but given the current deliveries expectations setting released just now, doesn't seem like that even budged that stock price. I'm thinking that their margins continued to suffer as they had to offer cheaper models, etc and so I'm thinking a drop in both revenue and earnings will shock investors, Esp given p/e will be probably 1000 at that point (at least the annualized done based on the quarter earnings).

Tip: do **not** buy puts or calls based on deliveries predictions, even if you are more accurate than any other analyst. Because, obviously, TSLA does not trade on business performance. It trades on hopes and dreams and stock manipulation. If you could have accurately predicted the performance of Tesla the company at the start of 2025, you'd have shorted the stock. Analysts were forecasting 20% growth. Reality: car sales actually shrunk 9%. EPS estimates back then were \~2-3x higher than Tesla's actual 2025 EPS. And you'd have lost money shorting. Because Tesla does **not** trade on fundamentals. It's a meme stock.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes (or lose in this case)

^(*I didn't hear no bell.*)

Troy is predicting 414k deliveries in 2025Q4. It looks like he also accepted Tesla's retconned consensus of 420k deliveries that Tesla published on its website yesterday, despite the fact that the consensus is 440k.

Historically when Troy has changed his forecast by a lot at the last minute, the real number ended up closer to the old forecast (407k in this case) than the new (414k)

Elon announced that the Tesla Model Y is the best selling car worldwide for 3 years in a row! Except Grok says that is not true, both the Toyota RAV4 and the Toyota Corolla outside the Model Y in 2025.

As far as I'm aware, Tesla doesn't separate Model 3 and Model Y deliveries, so what Elon says might be true or it might not.

Tesla may not but other things like registration data separates them. It’s pretty misleading if Elon is also including the Model 3. Might as well combine Toyota RAV4 numbers with Toyota Corolla then.

Elon Musk is always railing against the "legacy" mainstream media. Always saying the mainstream media is so unfair to him. Looking back, it was the sycophantic coverage of Musk and his companies in the mainstream media that turned me into a Tesla/Musk fan from 2012 to 2017. He derived billions and billions of dollars from his mainstream media coverage, which portrayed him as a real-life Iron Man turning utopian scifi visions into reality. But it wasn't any media outlet that radicalized me against him afterwards. It was his own Twitter feed. His own dumb-as-shit takes. To this day, the mainstream media is still incredibly soft towards Musk and refuses to call out his numerous lies or his far-right, Nazi-adjacent activism.

Absolutely, the liberal media really made him into a superhero who is "saving the world". That was a big justification for all the subsidies and incentives and EV coupons and the fraud. The state of California allowed Elon to fraud their early EV incentive program with "Tesla battery swap" and they didn't care... because they wanted to give Tesla more money. New York state also gave him around $1 billion in subsidies and a free factory, on top of their "regular" EV coupons & subsidy. - Come to think of it, except for Greta I can't remember a single person who the mainstream media presented as a genius or a savior, or just a good person, who didn't end up being a liar and a grifter... And usually they were promoted because they were a grifter. JD Vance is a another great example, he got all that free airtime on liberal media because he was an anti-Trump Republican and they allowed him to say very insane and stupid shit. And his book sucks!

Grifters and the media have a symbiotic relationship. Grifters need the media in order to shape their public reputation and find new marks. The media needs stories, and grifters supply great stories. The stories happen to be total bullshit, but the media lacks any critical thinking to spot it, and even if they could spot it they wouldn't care.

It was his March 14, 2022 tweet [about Ukraine](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1503276966874595330) where I started parting mental company with Elon. Having missed the big Model 3 / S&P inclusion run-up of 2020, I had been hella long on the whole "50% CAGR for the foreseeable future" and FSD jazz for just about a year then and sitting on solid (30%) gains . . . but with that tweet I understood something wasn't quite right with that man.

as I mentioned elsewhere, with a $1.5T market cap, TSLA is being priced on pure cybertaxi hopium, not its past business model of cars/solar/battery packs. (Plus as a mega-cap with ~2% of the Nasdaq/SP500 it also benefits from passive index money inflows, it's a tailwind for the stock regardless of P/E) Should the Uber direction (i.e. being the Pepsi to Waymo's Coke) not pan out, it's a $45 stock, not a $450, and even $45 is pretty generous if it's stuck at a 2M/yr run rate in the car business, since $45 x 3.5B shares / 2M cars / 15 P/E requires $5000 profit per car. BEV now has to compete head-up with ICE again, which makes the sub-$40k segments pretty tough. China going all-in on electric actually backs out the mid-2000s oil shock that saw gas go to $3 the first time so gas should remain pretty cheap this decade. I got wrecked on the puts I got in July even though everything in my thesis then was correct. They expire in March and if we get a repeat of Jan -> Mar 2025 this quarter they will print, but I can't expect that degree of narrative collapse again.

Yeah it's a gamble after all. If you look at Tsla stock in general, it's quite volatile and has large draw dawns every year. Hard to predict the timing, but options are meant to be non linear tail risk investments.

https://imgur.com/B1znTuU is what TSLA looked like 6 months ago My puts are with play money since I know it's like swimming upstream

You must not have been playing close attention. He started becoming completely unhinged in 2020, and in the years prior to that there were many warning signs.

nah it was around 2022 https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMajorityReport/comments/ueosni/elon_musk_shares_the_left_left_me_meme_and_gets_a/ edit: tho his reaction to COVID lockdowns were indeed a worrying sign: The coronavirus panic is dumb ^(12:42 PM · Mar 6, 2020) in my defense I was an Elon-skeptic 2012-2020 and only flipped to Elon-curious in early 2021 after seeing the first FSD videos on yt in late 2020.

Auto mod is flagging this for the x link. Can you remove it?

5 year Elonversary: *"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver* ***this year****, of that I am* ***con****fident. Can’t speak for regulators though."* \- Technoking, Jan 1, 2021

He was talking about "overpopulation" (in Africa) and "low birthrate problem" (in white places) in like 2015. Elon has been an open rightwinger for at least a decade. Obviously, the libs loved him. He will save us all!

Seeing many hedge fund managers issuing TSLA commentary highlighting "Elon being back and fully engaged at Tesla" as the main reason to be bullish. From his Twitter feed, he seems "fully engaged" in 10 hours a day of posting political disinformation. Has been for weeks.

Latest news: Elon Musk is all-in on funding Republican candidates in the midterms, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. TSLA stock up 1.75% in premarket on the news.

I guess his America Party is another thing from 2025 quietly abandoned.

Chief **Con**fidence Officer

I wouldn't dare to pretend like I can be the CEO of 4 companies, have a role in SpaceX and also be a special government employee for a few months, while claiming to also be a great PoE & Diablo & Elden Ring player, while it was also obvious that I'm spending hours every day posting on Twitter. Elon also doesn't just passively post, most of his posts are responsed to other posts and to long discussions, you have to spend hours just reading all that. On top of that, what happened the last time when Elon was fully engaged at Tesla? 1 million Robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020 and the Cybertruck!

I wonder what his schedule looks like -- what's the time split between scrolling Twitter, playing video games, wanking, calling politicians, ketamine trips, sourcing new baby mamas and sex workers, etc. I'd be shocked if he even spent 2 hours a day working. But I guess two hours with his once-in-a-generation brain is like 200 hours for us mortals.

Where do you see stock up pre-market? I don’t see it.

He teased multiple end of the year stock pumps for Tesla (talking about cool announcements in December, he even brought back the flying Roadster on Joe Rogan), some as early as April 2025. Then... He forgot to do it. I think he just simply forgot abour Tesla for an entire week.

Grok has been generating CSAM on request because the "undress this picture" works on literally anyone. I feel the big question should be where they got the training data, since AI can't create anything original...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ If you don't see it click on gear icon next to chart and select "show extended hours". Robinhood and a bunch of other sites show it too.

*TESLA 4Q DELIVERIES 418,227, EST. 440,907 *TESLA 4Q MODEL 3/Y PRODUCTION 422,652, EST. 452,494 *TESLA 4Q OTHER MODELS DELIVERIES 11,642, EST. 16,959 TESLA 4Q OTHER MODELS PRODUCTION 11,706, EST. 17,810 *TESLA FY DELIVERIES 1.64M, EST. 1.65M

Second in a row yoy drop. Stock up premakret.

They didn't even reach their own retconned "consensus" 420k delivery numbers? Anyway, this should be Tesla's best quarter for a while. 1.50M odeliveries in 2026, here we come. A not good result followed by a not good outlook should help the stock gain at least 3% today. - [edit] I was __so__ [close](https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1pn3pnk/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_dec_15/nuyl6ed/) >*total 2025 Tesla deliveries? I'm going for 1,65M (vs 1,79 in 2024).*

Tesla stock up on 16% drop in sales. 500 should be the next price target on worsening conditions.

Tesla has a valuation of $ 900.000 per car sold. LOL.

Rookie numbers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs shows Tesla is worth more than #2 - #26 combined, Toyota thru Xpeng

Any mention of the cost of the powerwall recall?

2022 - 1.314m 2023 - 1.809m 2024 - 1.789m 2025 - 1.636m eLoN aLwAyS DeLiVeRs

This was just a P&D day. If they're going to mention it, it'll be at earnings in a few weeks.

Leon’s net worth: 2022: $137 Billion  2023: $251 Billion 2024: $486 Billion  2025: $726 Billion He delivers on the only important metric.

*"we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see."* \- TechnoGrifter, Oct 19, 2022, speaking directly to shareholders

Dan Ives has reinterred his $600 per share price target in spite of the poor delivery numbers.

Car sales are down as expected...but some other tea leaves to read: "Other Models": 11,642...this is just getting sad. That's all the S, X *and* Cybertrucks. They closed the year with 46.7 GWh of energy...vs 27.7 last year. So that segment is quietly growing. However, I suspect much of this growth is in utility scale storage, and the tariff on imported batteries for that just went up 25% yesterday. Some estimates are grid scale utility projects could shrink by 1/3 in 2026 as a result. Another note about this: in 2024, xAI bought $198 million worth of megapacks, or almost 2% of TSLA's energy business that year. I expect it will be much more this year. Production was 434,000 vehicles...compared to 495,000 in Q4 2023 - my take away from this is from here on out, any and all excuses about factory changeovers, phases of the moon, or whatever else apologists come up with just aren't true. TSLA is operating far below its demonstrated production capability, and less than 75% of its nameplate production capacity of 2.35 million cars per year. With proper planning, there should be zero slowdown for plant upgrades. Estimates are TSLA sold between 735k and 740k cars in China for 2025...along with at least 200k China made cars sold in Europe, well over half of TSLA's production is now occuring in China.

Sure, why not. Its mostly based on make believe robots and robotaxis - why stifle his imagination?

Apologies if I keep laughing at the correlation in stock movements between TSLA and PLTR. Two completely different industries but both bound by Thiel. Both completely divorced from underlying fundamentals and has been going on vibes forever.

All time, TSLA has sold 9 million cars - so if my math is right, its over $150k for car sold *all time.*

Based on the data I would estimate they delivered approximately 5,000 cybertrucks (all from inventory) to SpaceX and xAI this quarter. The sales (but not the delivery) were likely recorded in Q3 to get the tax credit. So their real deliveries were closer to 413k this quarter.

There are rumors that Tesla might acquire xAI this year (in a similar fashion as xAI acquiring Twitter last year). The provided rationale is that xAI is burning $15B a year on \~500M in revenue, and is struggling to find new ~~paypigs~~ investors (most of the cash it raised recently was junk debt at 12% interest rate, not equity). It's not cheap to undress all these pictures of female Twitter users. This strikes me as implausible, because: * Tesla doesn't have that much cash (less than $40B in actual liquidity) * Tesla is about to become cash flow negative so it needs its cash * Tesla is a public company, while xAI has fraudulent finances (see: episode where the newly hired CFO resigned immediately after getting hired and hinted strongly at why on the way out) I think the more realistic scenario is that Tesla will make a $5-10B cash ~~donation~~ investment in xAI, which Tesla shareholders will be raving about and which will boost the share price.

Can't they make it a mostly non-cash deal? IIRC, SolarCity was an all stock swap, SC owners were given Tesla stock for 100% of the purchase price.

Now they really should shut down one of their factories, no? Probably Berlin.

And then Tesla inherits xAI's insane cash burn and has to include it in earnings reports? Doubt it would happen.

I am fairly confident they will run the call buying program on Monday to engineer a bounce. (Warning: I have been wrong many times before.)

I suspect Freemont is 1st on the chopping block - Musk can package the closing as a "stick in the eye" to California. But what am I even talking about - TSLA is on the verge of mass production of the "Cybercab" right...right?

The piggies would love it if Tesla acquires xAI, a company that Elon promised that he wouldn't even create if he receives a big bonus as the CEO of Tesla (he got an even bigger bonus than he was asking for). So what, no one cares, nothing matters! The stock would probably gain on the news.

According to [https://teslafsdtracker.com/](https://teslafsdtracker.com/) we saw 99% of drives with no critical disengagement for the first time in December 2025. Given they first hit 90% in November 2022 this suggests a rate of improvement c. one more 9 every three years. So we might expect to see 99.9% 2028, 99.99% in 2031; how many 9s would be enough for e.g. robotaxis that can make money, and will the company be able to survive long enough to achieve this? \[my guesses, '5 or 6', and 'no'.\]

Critical disengagement is meaningless BS term designed by Tesla purely to have them metric they can show is improving.

$10B is only $3/share. Surely ~~bag~~stockholders will be happy to part with that given their big gainz thanks to Elon.

Data varies, but the worst case I can find is we as drivers in the US get into an accident every 366k miles...with the average trip being 3 miles. So an accident every 122k miles. So 99.9992% of the time, human drivers don't wreck. So they've got a few 9s to go. But lets get real - this tracker website is a stastistically meaningless group of self-selected data. And what about disengagements that aren't "critical", whatever that really means.

I think it is good for order-of-magnitude estimates; at this rate they're about 10 years off being as safe as a human driver, yet Musk claimed, 3 weeks ago, they'd be able to lose the safety monitors in about 3 weeks. The gap is too large, they will never get there, Tesla will collapse before they do.

You're assuming that 90-99% and 99->99.9% are of equal difficultly to achieve. This is highly unlikely to be true. The more obscure the edge case becomes the harder it will be to solve. Your point stands, I am just pointing out that I believe your take is optimistic.

It means nothing until there is enough redundancy and there is no driver in the seat.

The vote to buy xai/xitter failed in Nov. The board cannot legally push for it.

When you get into a human-driven Uber, statistically you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of getting into some kind of accident. That's a 99.999% chance of no accident. By your logic, matching that would happen in 2034, but I don't think your logic is sound.

So I haven’t been around here much, but what’s the vibe on the planned SpaceX IPO? I feel like we’re about to learn some really bleak things about their financials and cash burn rate, but I am not a stock guy, just a geologist with a dislike for Musk’s bullshit.

Similar to Tesla having infinite demand for its cybertrucks (from xAI and SpaceX), SpaceX has infinite demand for its launches: 65–70% of SpaceX launches are for Starlink. Including Starlink, SpaceX does \~15B of revenue a year and is narrowly cash flow positive, with maybe \~1B of earnings. If it IPOs at a 1.5T valuation, it would have a P/E ratio of 1,500, much higher than even Tesla.

I have it on reasonably good authority (two semi-reliable data points) that the cash burn rate on Starship alone is in the ~$5 billion/year range. My best guess is that it’s being funded by Musk using his personal SpaceX shares as collateral for securities backed lines of credit (SBLCs) and the eternal pump is to try and maximize those. I’m really interested to see how that gets laid out with the IPO, since iirc those don’t go on the balance sheet as revenue.

> When you get into a human-driven Uber, statistically you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of getting into some kind of accident. and at any time of day, in any possible weather.

SMR was only short by 5M units: https://imgur.com/rgG5M2J

Friendly reminder that in October of 2024, Elon acknowledged that 2024 sales were slow but predicted that in 2025 car sales would grow 20% to 30%. And people believed him.

I think the plan with SpaceX going public is similar to Tesla. Actual fundamentals of SpaceX may not be good, they might be burning cash, but Elon will try to pump the stock and keep shareholders hyped about some new technology, the way he keeps Tesla shareholders hyped over robotaxis and robots in spite of falling car sales. There was an article in the Information not too long ago about how they are looking to hype data centers in space if the Starlink hype dies down. So they’ll keep hyping some new space aged technology, whether or not it’s actually realistic or viable, and hope people will buy the stock in spite of poor fundamentals.

I feel like we’re closer to the AI bubble popping than anyone wants to admit, the VC burn rate is enough to keep things afloat until like Q2 2027. So there’s an incredibly narrow keyhole IPO has to slot through - early enough to spike the stock, but not so late that the AI contraction tears everything down - to continue to get people to buy in with even worse fundamentals than Tesla. The soft admission that Mars is off the table for the foreseeable future is also, I think, highly consequential for how viable the stock winds up being. It’s the death of the reality distortion field, and lassoing SpaceX to AI is nowhere near fanciful enough to keep things going. With Starship V3 looking *increasingly* like a debut in Q2 2026 or later (and the strong possibility SpaceX loses the AIII contract) this is gonna be a year of reckoning.

I saw this hilarious tweet [https://x.com/DillonLoomis/status/2007129082350191074](https://x.com/DillonLoomis/status/2007129082350191074) where this guy basically was blaming the consumers for why Tesla's sales were down and then blame the media for being anti Elon. What the idiot doesn't say is that Elon has worked with conservatives to nuke the EV tax credits which were the biggest incentive to buying EV's and also worked with conservatives who have downplayed the expansion and importance of EV's. Not only that but Tesla's marketing is horrible and they barely advertise anything. The idea its the consumers fault for why they can't move EVs is stupid. It's Musk nuking the entire category the last 2 years aligning with GOP goons who are anti EV and clean energy.

That means Elmo is spending $20bn a year on xai and Spacex and soon Tesla will be making a loss too, every serious company would announce lay offs, but Elmo does that, the share price collapses and all the leverage comes crashing down.

The automoderator is flagging the x link. Can have the post, but can't link to x.

If Tesla were to release the Cybertruck with the same specs, the same pricing but with a conventional pickup truck design, do you think it would sell (significantly) better?

Long term, yes. But since Tesla targeted only the douches-gotta-douche market, they got themselves an initial spike (likely bigger than if they went with a "traditional " design) but then it saturated quickly.

Has he made any similar predictions about 2026 recently? 2025 deliveries were only down 8-9%, but in 2026 they should be down by closer to 15%.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk – who remains the richest person in the world, according to Forbes – has forecast the brand will improve to 1.75 million sales in 2026, and reach an ambitious four million vehicles by 2027. https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-posts-biggest-annual-sales-slide

I don't think he has, but he'll probably give some kind of response on the earnings call about it. What that response will be is anyone's guess. Could be a rehash of what he said last time, that FSD will be complete and drive vehicle volumes and the robotaxi will start entering production at the end of the year and contribute too. It could be him going in the exact opposite direction, getting exasperated at being questioned about it and saying anyone asking that question is an idiot who doesn't understand Tesla and how the auto segment won't matter in the scope of things due to Robotaxi and Optimus making more money than any company in the history of the world. It's always possible he just goes on some unhinged political rant too and blames low deliveries on 'the left' and a European BEV market that he'll swear is shrinking despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. Those are all things he's done or claimed in the past on the topic.

I don't think so in all honesty. With BEV pickups all indications are there just isn't that much of a market for them and it's an overcrowded space in general. I think the only one that had any real success was the R1T and that's probably virtue of being the first mover and directly targeting the kinds of active outdoors and environmentally conscious people who would even consider purchasing one to begin with. All that pro-Elon weirdos who bought one probably would have bought it anyways but I don't think you would get as many of the 'LOOK AT ME!' attention seekers that vehicle currently attracts if it looked like a standard pickup truck too. I mean we're kind of seeing that with the S and X at this point judging by the delivery numbers. Tesla has really lost the higher end luxury segment and it just doesn't have the same kind of prestige it did back in like 2016.

With everything that happened in 2025 and they're only down ~10%, hard to see them being down another 15% next year but here's hoping 🤞 I'm sure revenue will be down much more with the loss of credits and price cuts.

Would it sell better than the actual CT? Yes. Would it sell well? No. The best-selling truck is the F-150, and it has a BEV version, which sold so poorly it got discontinued. Still, it was outselling the CT.

They profited from expiring EV tax credits in the US and Norway, the Model Y refresh and the tail end of the remaining Cybertruck orders. They have none of this in 2026.

Big heavy pickups are the worst passenger vehicle use case for EVs and car companies should be making every effort to prioritize much lighter EVs over them. It doesn't help that most people who buy pickups are ideologically opposed to EV ownership.

>With everything that happened in 2025 and they're only down \~10%, hard to see them being down another 15% next year You seem to believe Elon going full Nazi was the primary factor behind the sales decline. Absolutely not. It only played a significant role in Europe, because that's the only Tesla market where people still give a shit about liberal democracy. The decline is mostly due to the fact they have had no new models in forever apart from the Cybertruck which was a huge flop. Meanwhile competition from Chinese and European manufacturers has been ramping up. They just don't have an attractive product anymore. They will decline further in 2026 because: 1. They still don't have any new models and competition is still intensifying. The two cars they sell are getting less and less attractive compared to alternatives every passing quarter. 2. Many countries are cutting or reducing EV subsidies, which were incentivizing sales. Including the US, China, Norway, Turkey... So they will do much worse in 2026 than in 2025.

IMHO, not if the kept the same price. Maybe a little better sales if it didn't look so childishly absurd, but just a little. Its still a ton of money for such a spartan truck.

That is a fair point. I just would have expected a bigger drop in q4 with the loss of the ev credit in the US. That being said the competition, particularly in China, is definitely making a big dent.

To be honest I don't think they'll ever get there. My point was more that it is definitely going to take years, rather than the weeks Musk suggests.

>The more obscure the edge case becomes the harder it will be to solve. Of course, but that is balanced by there being fewer of them. 99->99.9% taking as long as 90-99% is a best-case scenario in my opinion. I don't think Tesla can ever achieve it with cameras only, end-to-end neural networks, and Musk's management style. I could have worded my post better but I did give a clue at the end. Musk is saying he can pull the monitors in weeks, it clearly won't be possible for years, so the company will implode unless he can rapidly implement a different approach, the former seeming probable and the latter most unlikely.

If they did they wouldn’t be Tesla.

I think they pulled the demand levers so hard they nearly snapped though, yeah? 0% APR, etc

Each 9 will be much harder than the one before it.