Right now Rivian is going to launch their version of FSD with the R2, and unlike Tesla they will actually have Lidar and Radar
Make or break? More like... Make or Make! \*uncorks champagne\* Edit: oh I guess everyone missed the obvious snark :(
I do think in 2026 or 2027 if there's no unsupervised robo taxis on the road then it's gonna raise gigantic red flags to even the most ardent Tesla supporters.
Fake or make or break. Will there be cake? The cake is also a lie.
As a stock that should be valued at $30/share at present performance, it's going to be a really crazy year. Profits will be down 60%, car sales will be down 5-10% (but trending towards cheaper models), revenues will continue to fall, solar installations declining, they won't be selling any robots, and robotaxis will be entering a low-margin business sometime around mid-year. Musk will likely continue to talk about the future and hype things that are behind schedule, but I don't really know if the stock will fall like is should. There's just too much retail investor momentum for TSLA, and there's not enough institutional investors that are willing to trim their holdings until the company starts to deserve their investments. I think 2027 will be a more important year, because that's when we'll really see if the robotaxi vision is coming to fruition, if there is a functional Optimus robot and any potential market, and if they can reverse declining auto sales on every continent. If there are cracks in 2027, that's when I think retail investors could start to lose faith. Another item for 2026 is if a potential SpaceX IPO will draw TSLA retail investors to move money into it, as that company might have a brighter future, but we really don't know as there isn't much publicly known about its finances.
I think, Tesla can only whither away. In China, they can't compete because the Chinese are too strong for everybody. There is no industrial capacity, nor the will, at Tesla apparently, to go into the lower market segment, which is sorely needed for the cash flow. Nor, again, could Tesla compete with China there. They need 800V cars in their segment - but they refreshed their cash cows recently without that. **Big** mistake IMHO. In Europe, VW group already sells way more cars and other groups are catching up too. When combined with other domestic makers who both caught up *and* offer smaller cars that Europeans buy more, Europe is lost for them. In the US, the current administration is a factor and the market turns away from BEVs. The rest of the world isn't prosperous enough to buy a lot of their cars, plus, it doesn't have much of its own production to protect, so the Chinese will likely take over.
What will break the meam stock?
Yeah, like other than the 3 and Y, they don't have any other good selling cars. They haven't updated the S and X for so many years. And the Cybertruck was a disaster. They could've easily had a good 3 row SUV which is one of America's biggest and most profitable auto sectors. But they refused to make the Model YL have a boxy back end so the 3rd row passengers would have a decent seating position. And they won't even try and bring it to the USA Tesla is quickly becoming the Chrysler of EVs. Once Rivian has a good FSD rival they are going to be in a lot of trouble
They should have gone bankrupt a long time ago, but meme stocks do what they want as long as enough tubes believe.
Agree! I think FSD will fail without a safety driver, but at least now they *might* actually be trying it. Again, I think Tesla has antiquated tech and will fail, but we will see. It'll applaud them if they actually give it a shot!
Surely by the *end of the year*
They broke like 5 years in a row already. What’s another?
If Tesla tries to have lots of unsupervised robotaxi's it will end the same way as Cruise. Cruise tried to lobby heavily to have their not ready to launch self driving cars in SF, but they performed so badly that eventually the state was forced to step in and shut them down and public trust was permanently gone
Or the SpaceX IPO will bring SpaceX enough money to buy Tesla claiming they need the full manufacturing capacity to build the robots they need to go to Mars/Neptune/whatever and Tesla will exit cars without ever achieving FSD. The money vortex will continue to swirl and pull in more real dollars and somehow prop up things for a few more years, sadly.
BK is in their future. They had a substantial first mover advantage and pissed it away. Now everyone else is as good or better and they have shitty quality and infrequent and unsubstantial refreshes
Yeah and other car makers have EVs in segments Tesla doesn't. All Tesla has is a mid size sedan and a coupe CUV that sells well. The S and X haven't been updated in a long time and have low sales and the Cybertruck is a disaster
No it will not matter. The next big thing will be announced that will salvage everything by the end of the year /s
Don't think it's retail, more like Elmo and his proxies pumping the stock to max out the leverage and grab eyeballs
i don’t’ see how rivian is a rival to tesla. rivian only makes trucks / SUVs. tesla only makes passenger cars. people will pick one or the other based on their needs.
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This is the TSLA way. It will be something entirely ridiculous and unattainable, yet heavily FOMO-inducing for the less bright minds. The stockholders will YOLO it and forget about all the previous missed milestones overnight.
BK is in their future. They had a substantial first mover advantage and pissed it away. You may be the only logical person on Reddit today
gonna be hard for TSLA to actually scale any robotaxi operations to be cash-positive too. Chances are it's going to be a Boring-quality attempt and early adopters are going to be puzzled by what the hell the company is up to.
what happened to Elon's "covering half the population by the end of the year" promise from July??
Until Elon starts his Roadster bullshit, that will buy him more time and raise the stock price.
Exactly what will Tesla's breakthrough be in a year? Will FSD magically improve, will there be a massive MAGA move to EVs, will there be affordable new models that do not look pretty much like the old models? What does anyone expect in such a short amount of time?
Lol
All we need to know is if Tesla believed in their FSD they would assume liability in some situations, instead fsd turns off before a crash to avoid any liability.
The SpaceX IPO "leaks" are not a coincidence. Tesla Q4 numbers are going to be awful, and there's nothing concrete on the short term horizon to make up for declining revenue or cash flow. Elon needs a distraction from this. My guess is a consolidation of SpaceX, Tesla and Twitter into a single X company...
Why would it fail without a safety driver when it is working fine with a safety driver? Also tesla has the most sophisticated self driving tech on the planet, what are you talking about antiquated? Their only competitor is google, who is using literally antiquated lidar tech
No, 2025 was the make or break year. The market just doesn't want to admit it yet.
Although the "next year" is more likely, in my opinion.
Tesla had their opportunity a few years back to create an affordable Model 2, which would have absolutely cleaned up in Europe and Asia. Instead, Elon went off on his insane Cybertruck vanity project. Lord knows how much was spent on developing the nichest of niche products (market segment: Americans who are conservative enough to want a truck but who also want to draw attention to themselves as some kind of sci-fi futurist). I remember saying this on the Tesla sub a while back and drawing a number of "Pfft, I think Elon knows more about this than you!" dismissive replies. Yes, I'm just some random internet gonk but it doesn't take a SpaceX scientist to see that this was a stupid decision. Anyway, it's over for Tesla in Europe at least, thanks to his hubris. When Tesla does eventually go pop it'll be all on him (and I say this as a two times Tesla owner who once had great hopes for him and his company, but no more). Elon has burnt his bridges here.
As long as the regulators don't interfere it could be done in 6 months.
Bullshit. Tesla is a fantasy propped up by pure speculation like the US market. At the current pace, 10% of US market cap will be controlled by one person. It's no longer a market that independently values business
Three things in the next few months. 1) California DMV vs Tesla decision 2) possible recalls by the NHSTA involving Faulty Door handles 3) the judge’s decision, whether to uphold the lower courts decision involving Leon’s 2018 compensation. If those don’t go Tesla’s way. It’ll be financially devastating.
Yeah, not so much in other markets. Why are they still not certified in China or the EU?
It’s been 14 years …. And in two more years it will raise “Red Flags” ? WTF is wrong with the Fanboi cult?
3 months maybe...
My guess is that he's blackmailing people saying if they want access to the SpaceX IPO they better not dump their Tesla shares.
Why are they STILL comparing to Rivian? They are not a car company remember ? I mean 300 PE it’s a energy/ robotics/ AI / penis pump company
It should but it won't. FSD is 8 years overdue, do you think 9 will make a difference?
It’s practically ready for release
Rather reminiscent of DeLorean.
What regulators?
Even if Tesla breaks it and Rivian succeeds, TSLA stock will still go up.
The regulators that keep getting in the way of the amazing progress. By Hardware level 9 and FSD 27.3 they will have everything perfected.
LOL, He'll announce that future Model 3s and Ys will have the option to ship without driver controls "soon" and the stock price will double.
The thing is Musk has fucked up now and made his company basically a FSD and Robotaxi led company. It's no longer a bullshit car company that is selling unrealized tech. He has to show that the Robotaxi's have proof of concept to justify their stock.
Robot restaurants nation wide. Print money.
That stupid bastard tried to force the engineers to develop the model Y without a steering wheel.
I'm CONfident of it happening soon.
The two biggest segments of the car industry in the US are SUV’s and Trucks. Tesla tried to break into the truck market and failed horribly. Their SUV is still one of their biggest sellers, but it would be disastrous if they lost that market share to Rivians as well. Personally, I don’t think Rivian is Tesla’s biggest competitor though. Their biggest trouble is gonna come from the legacy automakers (Toyota, Honda, Ford, etc), now that those companies have started cranking out EV’s. Particularly, if one or more of those companies partners with Waymo (or someone) to provide real self-driving.
The only thing left for Tesla is to see when The Greater Fool Theory finally breaks, and the stock completely implodes. Elron has already made enemies of his potential customers and poisoned the brand. There is no recovering from that short of getting rid of him.
Strewth, people have been saying these tropes for every year that Tesla has been around. There will be good and bad days, months or years for Tesla. But mostly, in spite of some huge mistakes, they have kept moving forward. Interesting.
“Trust me bro, 2026 will be the year Tesla falls, forget I said the same for the past 5 years” Note, screw Elmo and his scams, but these “news” are nothingburguers every year.
It’s at 300x P/E. If Tesla made the same amount of money going forward it would finally pay for itself by the year 2325.
There will never be unsupervised FSD. Tesla will not assume financial responsibility.
They’re much better at this than Enron was
Then the company is worthless.
I don’t think the Y is an SaUV. It’s more of a crossover like the Subaru ctosstrek.
I don't know about worthless, but pretty close to the bottom. As a car company, it has lost it's edge and is no longer a leader in the EV space; as a robotics company. It is nowhere near the top. In terms of driverless commercial fleet, hello Weymo. The fact that Tesla is valued more than Toyota defies ordinary understanding. Unless Tesla goes to the basics and get rid of it's CEO, it will continue to excel in hype.
There are already lots of unsupervised robotaxis on the road in both the US and China. It’s just that none of them are Teslas. So it’s always strange when people think that Tesla getting closer to a technology others solved years ago is a sure sign of massive windfall profits. The stock should have collapsed long ago, but of course it’s at all time highs…
By that time waymo will have been on the road for multiple years and others following fast. Market share is reducing to nothing each day plus Elons pay package. Its just a recipe for a nose dive. With sales and innovation stalling finding new buyers is going to be very difficult.
I think you have it exactly right. I'm curious though what happens with cashflow in the actual company, as opposed to the meme stock. They claim to have a lot of cash on hand. I guess they could have a cash-flow crisis and massive layoffs and the stock could still go up because stans would spin that as a positive reorganization orienting the company toward the future products that will be orders of magnitude bigger sellers than mere cars.
Rivian is planning on making a smaller SUV eventually, heck the R2 is about the same price as the Model Y premium and it offers more space
I definitely don't agree with his logic of adding lidar and radar will solve FSD in 1 month. Its going to a long time to recalibrate their software to also have lidar and radar
Not enough upvotes here.
He really thinks his robotaxis will get people to en masse stop buying personal vehicles. Even if robotaxis were truly everywhere (and they absolutely won't be any time soon) this kind of change would take decades at least.
If by working fine you mean zero interventions over hundreds of thousands of miles there's no credible evidence of that. Tesla doesn't release any data to indicate anything. What little crowdsourced data we have certainly doesn't show that, not even for FSD 14. But we do know the Austin robotaxis have been involved in a pretty high number of collisions despite having safety monitors.
FSD already isn't solved yet with LIDAR. Waymo's been at it for years and while it's a lot better than what Tesla had it still is a long ways off from true level 5 universal autonomy (what Elon keeps promising) There's a reason Waymo isn't running in NYC yet.
Musk would never want to consolidate SpaceX into Tesla. Tesla will buy Twitter/Xai though for about 200 billion. Because that is how Musk gets paid.
model y isn't an suv
I'm not sure - if SpaceX floats (and I'd bet with a non majority voting structure similar to Tesla's) then effectively the organizations could merge via a cashless share-swap deal signed off by two captured boards. The resultant organization would see TSLA the notional senior party and Elon bangs whatever SpaceX's market cap into TSLA bringing him closer to the big payout.
Remember that time I was going to kill you and you were like “noooo waaayyyyyyyyyy”
But to what gain for anyone? Musk now is locked into two combined companies that both have very low profit. SpaceX does all of 15 billion in sales. Is understandable it is bot profitable to speak of yet but a 600 billion dollar valuation makes it hard to see where there will ever be a payback. Combine that with Tesla and now you have two companies look back. But good luck getting people to buy into a vision that some will not see.
Musk is locked into the exact same companies irrespective of if they are legally independent or separate companies. (Arguably he's been running them as though they were joined in a number of ways as it is - fleets of Tesla's for SpaceX etc.) My view is shareholders actually voting a $1tn payout for Musk suggested if he floated a merger of Tesla and SpaceX those same shareholders would sign up.
Who wants to buy a vehicle that depreciates like a rock falling?
More so they are having their wealth arms inducing their clients to buy.
They're likely to run into earnings and cash flow issues before that. Q4 is going to be ugly both on volumes and mix as US tax credits have expired and they're having to push more lower margin RWD vehicles just to keep unit volumes from completely collapsing. Doesn't look like that alone will necessarily hit them too hard, but with Q4 traditionally being their strongest quarter one can only imagine how grim Q1 2026 will be. People are already starting to get heavily skeptical of OpenAI's ability to actually scale revenue fast enough to pay off Oracle and the ridiculously profitable NVidia has been languishing despite having hundreds of billions in orders booked next year and ridiculous levels of profitability. Eventually the market is going to swing risk-off again and Tesla is going to beat into the dirt like it always does, it's just hard to tell when that'll be.
Roadster. Had a deposit down for years. Got it back a couple of years ago. Would have really like to own one, but its vapor ware.
And also robotaxi's need to actually be affordable for people to abandon owning cars. Otherwise its just another Uber/Lyft competitor. The reason why most people still own cars and don't rely solely on Uber/Lyft is its too expensive compared to owning a car. And bus's don't work well in spread out cities due to needing to constantly stop for 2-3 min to unload people
I think people will largely own cars no matter how cheap taxis are because they'll want to have one when they need to be assured that the car will be there when they need it. Or will be available to go anywhere and will be able to store things for them indefinitely. Like when I'm going out to a cabin for a few days where there's no cell coverage I don't want to rely on ridesharing. Maybe renting could partially address this but people already very frequently buy vehicles with features they rarely need instead of renting those features when needed. That and I think people see vehicle ownership as a part of their identity they don't want to give up. Then if you already own a car driving it will always be cheaper than riding a robotaxi.
Didn't waymo just pull it's fleet off the road? It would seem like the school bus problem is insurmountable by both Tesla and waymo.
Tesla will just open up the pre orders for the roadster until the money problems go away.
Surprised the stock isn't up 20 percent on this news.
not buying one now, won’t be buying one then.
Not that im aware of in LA…
Ross gerber is in the bottom 1% of money manager. He is not to be taken seriously
Elon will probably just have remote drivers in India taxi people around and claim victory so the stock hits $2T and he gets his $20B bonus or whatever. TSLA investors have zero interest in the company’s financial performance. They are **fundamentally opposed** to the concept of valuing companies based on financial performance - and the more ridiculous the stock price gets, the more it validates the alternate reality they live in.
The grift is endless, truly masterful. Gotta give him that
You’re seriously overestimating how emotionally stable the average Tesla investor is.
Waymo’s are everywhere in Vegas.
He’s got a million ways to promote vaporware. Next it’ll be a fucking Mechwarrior robot that will ‘definitely be in full production by 2027’. After that he’ll release a paper on a space elevator that will ‘definitely be in use by 2029’. It just won’t stop. No one wants the TSLA stock to drop.
Probably because there are no schools in Vegas. On a related note, shouldn't Tesla's in the tunnel be able to self drive there if nowhere else? And that's like the closest thing to a closed setting yet still out in public.
How would consolidation work? Tesla buy out the private SpaceX shareholders and Elon musks twitter shares?
SpaceX floats first - then SpaceX and Tesla agree an all-share deal. Just like SolarShitty
Tesla was/has always been focused outside Europe. If Tesla had any form of focus group or market research they wouldn't have bothered with the Model 3 for Europe. The "sedan" sector has been dead in Europe for decades and it was a combination of Euro fleet averages and COVID shortages that rescued the EU model 3 sales. If the Model Y had been available here before the 3, the 3 would have sold a fraction.
EV tax credit, also known as a way to ensure folks stay in debt. If anyone truly cared about getting more EV's out there, the credit would of applied to everyone, not just the lower class.
The income limits for new EVs was very high, used EVs sure they should've been higher. The main issue with the EV tax credit is it normally required leasing which doesn't work for high mile drivers
Where did he say that?
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