Tesla US Sales Reach New 2025 Low in November, MI Says | EV

This comes on the back of September 2025 sales supposedly being up "massively" y/y. [September 2025 = 62,834 (Motorintelligence - archive)](https://web.archive.org/web/20251003000918/https://www.motorintelligence.com/) [September 2024 = 53,077 (Motorintelligence - archive)](https://web.archive.org/web/20241013125607/http://motorintelligence.com/) So according to these numbers, Tesla's US sales were up 9,757 in September, or 18%. Not exactly massive... but certainly up. That increase in sales pales in comparison to the decline in sales in October and November, and no doubt there will be a steep decline in December as well. [December 2024 = 57,700 (motorintelligence - archive)](https://web.archive.org/web/20250128024739/http://motorintelligence.com/) My guess is that Tesla remains below 50,000 US sales in December, so a decline of at least 8000 sales or 13.8%. However, based on 2024's December vs November sales increase of 12%, if Tesla sees the same 12% increase in December vs November, then they'll only sell 44,580 vehicles in December, which would be a decline of 13,120 sales, or about 22.7%. Remember that the October/November 2025 numbers also include SpaceX (funded by US taxpayers) and xAI (funded by private investment to the point of being claimed to have a $200-$300 billion valuation) buying up Cybertrucks. These numbers also include the new downgraded versions of the model 3 and Y with lower MSRPs. Presuming these versions are making up a decent chunk of the post federal EV tax credit sales, then Tesla's average vehicle margins will drop in the US. (Just to reiterate, I'm not sure how accurate Motorintelligence's numbers are.)

One last note, Tesla's Chinese wholesale numbers are up about 10% in November, or up by about 7844 sales. [https://cnevpost.com/2025/12/02/tesla-china-nov-2025-wholesale/](https://cnevpost.com/2025/12/02/tesla-china-nov-2025-wholesale/) It seems this is likely coming from higher than normal sales on account of declining incentives for EVs starting in January in multiple nations including China and Norway. Remember that Tesla still exports model 3 (and possibly some model Ys) from China to European nations. In other words, these regions are experiencing the same pull forward in sales that the US had in September. I imagine there will be a boost in sales in these regions through December (likely even bigger than the November boost), then a collapse in sales starting in January, and likely lasting at least a full quarter... possibly two. Australia, albeit a very small market, did experience an increase in Tesla sales in November without an impending credit expiration. \_\_\_ Throw into the mix that the US economy is clearly flagging and may be prepping for a major correction, possibly even a recession that makes the early 2025 market correction look like a minor hiccup. That could lead to major layoffs across the economy. If that happens, the entire vehicle sector, along with every other sector, will likely see a major loss in sales, revenue, and profits.

Saw this fresh post. Had to check. Yep, stock going up.

It’s ok Elons sexbots will take us to Mars and shit

I'd be looking for Tesla to hit a new ATH here by just a bit... not by much... then potentially start to roll over in the same way they did around the end of December last year. It may be in a similar topping pattern to what happened between August - September 2022. However, again... Tesla is inextricably linked to the S&P 500. It won't see a major correction unless the S&P 500 sees a major correction. However, given that the market is starting to look fairly weak... I expect that correction to begin anywhere from late December to Q2 of 2026... maybe first bumping up to a slightly higher (but brief) ATH before starting to buckle. I certainly wouldn't front run such a correction. The market could go sideways for quite awhile.

Beautiful work people.

Don't forget the 17% decline in November throughout Europe. Tesla is really shrinking in growing markets. Even in their showcase country Norway, they are barely able to keep their market share.

It looks like he’s angling to get robot subsidies the same way he got EV subsidies, so I reckon the share price is up on the rumor of more welfare for Elon. Tesla robots are complete shit compared to what Boston Dynamics or Honda has built, and they don’t mass produce them due to no market demand. Other than a few Broligarches wanting a robot army to serve their needs I don’t understand the obsession with them.

It's always about replacing human labor with something cheaper in a bid to drive down their labor costs and drive up their profits. They know that eventually this will kill the economy if all of the blue collar workers lose their jobs... but they don't care so long as they're the ones who most benefit from it before that happens. They're also using AI/robots/autonomous vehicles for round tripping schemes, like what Nvidia is now being called out for. Nvidia made a bunch of money, and their market cap has gone through the roof, enabling them to take out massive loans. They loan their cash out to other companies, or buy chunks of those other companies in exchange for cash, those other companies then spend all of that cash to buy Nvidia chips, thus exploding Nvidia's revenue... except that revenue is all coming from Nvidia's cash. The revenue and profits look great on a financial disclosure... even if Nvidia's cash is in decline. It's all fun and games until over half those companies eventually fail and go bankrupt. But then it'll just be another scheme by other corporations to buy up those now failed companies on the cheap, along with their huge supply of chips. Tesla's CT sales are awful... so look at what Tesla does. They start selling them to another heavily subsidized Musk company, SpaceX, and to a heavily investor subsidized AI company, xAI. No doubt will help boost Tesla's financials for the quarter, but it's all just another scheme. Never heard about the subsidies for robots... will need to look into that one.

Legit question, are index funds usually the last to react when the music stops?  I am wondering if there is ever a point where they would be like yes, these companies are already highly overvalued, let's cement our profits and look for other companies

He says in a few years no one will have to work . We can spend our time banging his robots and relishing how good we have it. It's going to be swell.

lol, right? I always love that people take Musk seriously when it comes to things like UBI (Universal Basic Income). If billionaires and corporations cared about supporting the unemployed, wouldn't they already be doing so? Corps / billionaires have more voice in our establishment government than ever before. Essentially dictating all financial policy, giving themselves tax breaks and loopholes, and dismantling existing regulations or voting down new regulations. Literally destroying the regulatory agencies. Yet we're supposed to believe that suddenly these companies will produce products that kill millions upon millions of jobs and will choose to pay more taxes to pay for Universal Basic Income for millions of unemployed people. Feeding permanently unemployed people won't improve their revenue and profits. HAH! More likely than not, they'll keep the money and let the millions of unemployed devolve into living in slums and eventually starving to death. The billionaires will be fine. They've already started buying up huge swaths of land. Zuckerberg is buying up land in Hawaii and building a silo style bomb shelter. Ellison has bought 90% of a Hawaiian Island. Bezos has multiple yachts where he can live out his days in the middle of the Ocean. All of these billionaires have so much wealth they could hire private mercenary armies if the need ever arose.

Index funds don't react at all, that's kind of the point

Security for billionaires is the move. Then rise up against them and chill with your pals. Zuck probly gonna put collars that explode on them though

Good thing Tesla isn't a car company.... What are they? Well no one really knows, but what we do know is it 100% isn't a car company

A hype/stock company.

VR goggles.

I'm actually a bit surprised by Norway. For such a progressive country, they really don't seem to care about Tesla's CEO giving nazi salutes, supporting fascist groups, massively supporting Donald Trump, unbanning far right extremists on Twitter who were spreading misinformation, platforming racists and xenophobes on Twitter, etc... Maybe because they don't feel they were terribly affected by the nazis in WWII, after they were taken by surprise and steam rolled, surrendering after 63 days. Still though... they were occupied and repressed by the Nazis for 5 years! Are their memories that short, or what? Fascism is what attacked them and repressed them, and could absolutely do it again, given what a honey pot the nation has become with their oil, valuable metals, valuable geography that's perfect for hydro electric infrastructure, and their fishing and boat building industries. I guess Trump hasn't really gone after Norway much, which come to think of it, is pretty interesting. Of all the nations that got hit with tariffs, Norway was hit with one of the lowest tariffs at 15%. I guess trade between our nations isn't exactly huge, with the US trade only importing about $6.6 billion of goods from the nation. Does this mean Norway's not worried about Musk's support of Trump and other authoritarian fascists then? They have all of the EV choices in the world, but they're buying up Teslas like hotcakes. Maybe Tesla gave them a good deal. I know there are a lot of long time diehard Tesla investors in the nation, and the national wealth fund owns about 1% of the company, but you'd think most of them would already own Tesla vehicles. Given the nation's rich, maybe they're trading them in and buying new ones all of a sudden before the Norwegian EV credit is removed. Of course, what no one mentions is that Norway is one of the richest nations on a per capita basis in the world, and outside of the "green" image they propagandize to the world, the nation's people are quite materialistic. They like their big fancy vehicles. They have their vacation homes, and boats, and have one of the highest per capita flight rates in the world. Their main industry is oil. They're green in so much that they have a lot of surplus electricity on account of their geography and massive Hydro electric infrastructure (green) that was perfect for the adoption of EVs. (green) Or maybe it's Norwegian dealership stocking up on Teslas while the credit is still in effect? Not entirely sure how the credit works in Norway, or if those dealerships can get the credits, and then re-sell the vehicles to customers over time. That could mean that the pull forward in Tesla's demand could be quite a bit larger than I originally thought, with 2026 seeing a huge reduction in Tesla supply to the nation once the credit's gone. \_\_\_\_ Edit: Norway's reducing the VAT tax exemption in 2026, and then eliminating it in 2027.

Who’s the CEO? Such a genius! I want to give him like a trillion dollars for these great results.

That means stock will reach new highs. Prepare

Who are the clowns still buying Swasticars?

Oh well anyway

My feeling is that this is a much worse problem than Elon's politics. That backlash went away... Now they're just left with an outdated model line up that is facing fierce competition from multiple competitors. Worse, they have just refreshed and it will take some time for the next model cycle.

$tsla being so volatile for the past decade has actually been good for a lot of investors. Doesn’t matter so much if it’s up or down trending as long as IV stays high.

They are running low interest campaigns in Norway and large parts of Europe making Teslas much much cheaper to finance than competitors. In many other markets people can just choose another type of vehicle but all in all the Tesla is the only reasonable choice due to this in Norway. You need to hate Elon so passionately that you actively want to burn hundreds of dollars a month just to stick it to him to choose another vehicle.

Up a healthy amount in China and Norway and down less then almost all their competitors in America, doesn’t say but probably lost a ton of ground in Europe. Not good but not exactly the free fall some expect.

We all know Elon will present a flying Roadster before Xmas and that Optimus will use this to fly to Mars any day now. Probably right before New Year's. Now's the time to buy. Go go.

Do those saying Tesla is now a robotics and taxi company understand that Europe will boycott also those services if they make it to Europe etc.?

> We all know Elon will present a flying Roadster before Xmas I read that as "flying Toaster" and thought, "yeah, with him, he might."

Norwegians are used to crappy cars because cars used to be heavily taxed here. Cars here were therefore older with crappier trim levels and weaker engines compared to Germany, Sweden, the UK and many others. Obviously, a Tesla Model 3 is going to feel better when you're coming from a 17 year old Passat with 125 horsepowers and cloth seats. If you're coming from a five year old Volvo S80 with leather seats, it's obviously a lot different.

Other major OEMs run low interest campaigns all of the time; often based on whether they need to move inventory. I don't know all the details in Europe, but if Tesla is unilaterally pushing low interest campaigns, then it's because they're getting desperate to sell cars. They do tend to run deals just before a change in incentive structure though, clearly trying to clear out their entire inventory while the getting is good. But again, this comes back to extreme demand pull forward, and what should be predicted to be horrible sales starting in January.

Clowns.

Jobs not finished.

\> 95% of the company's valuation being tied to vaporware products that don't yet exist, and may never exist. 99.997% of the valuation is tied to expectations that the price will go up forever. It's just tulipmania.

Through an electric Hyperloop, operated by a robot army of extraordinary magnitude.

The refresh is not enough, a new bumper, and center console. They dont change that much model 3 is looking old. Now they are enshitifying their models which is not a soultion. Next years earnings will be a disaster we all know it.

[https://youtu.be/Mb6H7trzMfI?si=Yb6bY4h5Ogz3QUpM](https://youtu.be/Mb6H7trzMfI?si=Yb6bY4h5Ogz3QUpM)

Oh that means stock will be gaining on Monday

Oh, they can (and will!) go lower.

And yet is against UBI, so he’s looking forward to watching anyone without generational wealth starve.

The stock will probably double on this news.

In his first term, he asked why no one from Norway wants to move to the USA and why we only get immigration from what he called "sh*thole countries"

Tesla has been announcing a few incentives and changes to try and move their growing inventory backlog (first month’s payment off, 1 free upgrade on a model y, lower interest rates, maybe CarPlay coming?, and their Christmas update) so it’ll be interesting to see if that helps boost interest now that their brand image is in the toilet and the EV incentives are gone in the US. I personally am hoping to see a few more incentives by Tesla in the US to counteract the loss of the $7500 tax credit cause the “standard” (aka we made it shitty” versions of their cars just ain’t it.

For sure, at this point they don't have much of a choice. They absolutely need to move inventory right now, which is difficult given that they essentially had $7500 in subsidized revenue/profits erased from their business with the ending of the federal tax credit. If the economy continues to weaken and/or more EV competition hits the market, then the longer these cars sit in inventory, the more they may fall in value as OEMs have no choice but to cut MSRPs to move their production and inventory. This goes double for Tesla, who doesn't have a dealership to share the cost of inventory with, like the larger established OEMs do. All inventory is kept on Tesla's books, where they eat the full cost of inventory depreciation. The problem is that even with these discounts, Tesla's vehicles are still more expensive than they were last year (due to loss of credit), and yet the economy is also weaker than it was last year. So that means less demand or people demanding lower prices, but Tesla has technically raised the price of all of their vehicles. (They didn't cut their MSRPs enough to offset the loss of the credit, so it's an increase in prices to the consumer) As I said in my post and my first comment, their US sales are down 24,238 in the first two months of Q4, and they could be down another 8000-13000 in December, for a year over year quarterly decline of 32,000 - 37,000 sales in the US alone. I wouldn't be shocked if they've already started to cut production volumes, or are planning to in Q1 '26, along with another round of layoffs. Ironically, all of the other OEMs should fare better, having not put all of their eggs in a singular EV basket, where they would have been completely reliant on government EV subsidies. Albeit in an economic correction, the entire auto industry tends to get wrecked, but EV only companies could get hit worse than the rest.

Tesla sales in Norway in Q4 of 2024 were 6,595.  Tesla's sales so far in Q5 of 2025 are 9,165.  That is a 39% increase YoY increase, and there are still three full weeks left in the quarter.  Their market share is obviously not just "barely" hanging on there.  Don't get me wrong, it is shaping up to be a bad quarter generally, but Tesla's numbers in Norway have been incredible this quarter.

There is no Q5. And Teslas market share in 2024 was 20.5%, in 2025 20.7%. Yes, the December is surprisingly strong, and they made up the loss of the first 3 quaters. But it was bought with substantial incentives in cheap financing options.

Tesla's market share in Norway in Q4 of 2024 was 19.49%. It is currently 24.73% in Q4 of 2025, and will continue rising through the end of the quarter like it does every quarter since they backlog their sales so much. So their market cap is going to go up well over 5% in Q4 YoY - again that is not "barely" hanging in there at all. And it wasn't bought with big discounts and subsidies either, pricing in Norway is still pretty good for them.

For 2025 Tesla still has s lower market share than 2023, and compared to 2024 it went from 20.5 to 21%, due to a very strong December, not that huge step. The main competitor rose from 14 to 16%. And the Norwegian market offers basically no growth potential due to the nearly 100% electric registrations. The 0.0% financing is quite substantial, which helped a lot.

> Don't forget the 17% decline in November throughout Europe. Tesla is really shrinking in growing markets. Even in their showcase country Norway, they are barely able to keep their market share. This is your dumb comment. You can just admit it was a stupid comment, which it is, instead of bringing up other irrelevant points. Their Q4 market share is going to be comfortably higher than it has been for over two years. It isn't just because of a strong December either, they exceeded their 2024 Q4 delivery totals by the end of November this year. FYI, Tesla's main competitor in Norway is the VW group, which actually has a higher market share than Tesla so far in Q4.