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TSLA Terathread - For the week of Dec 01

AutoModerator | 2025-12-01 10:01 | 37 views

Original Terathread returns!

Comments (160)
FrogmanKouki 2025-12-01 10:46

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1p5d5nv/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_nov_24/

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 12:36

"Tesla November car registrations drop 58% in France, 49% in Denmark, data shows" Is that good

AcadiaLivid2582 2025-12-01 13:26

Of course! It means the company now has more time to work on humanoid robots, self-driving taxis, flying roadsters, cars without steering wheels, flamethrowers, tequila, and all of the other "core businesses" of this car company. All now coming in just two weeks!

tony3841 2025-12-01 13:33

Yes, it shows Tesla is not a car company. They'll make massive profits with AI any day now! To the moon! /S

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 13:45

Some Elonversaries to start off the week: *"I am extremely confident of achieving* ***full autonomy*** *and releasing it to the Tesla customer base* ***next year****. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year"* \- Dec 1, 2020 *"I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have* ***level five*** ***next year****, extremely confident,* ***100%***" - Dec 1, 2020 *"We're tentatively aiming for* ***50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi*** *in North America."* \- Dec 1, 2022 Remember: Never underestimate Elon.

Ambitious-Video2153 2025-12-01 13:46

what about Hamburgers and Hot Dogs? Isn't that where the real growth potential is?

AcadiaLivid2582 2025-12-01 13:47

Fair. I forgot about all the economies of scale Musk can bring to the ... diner.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 13:58

Bitcoin down 5%, Tesla will struggle today. Oh and sales are down. lol.

dtyamada 2025-12-01 14:02

I didn't realize he ever actually identified level 4 or level 5. He usually just uses vague terms like "safer than humans".

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 14:07

At Tesla's April 22, 2019 "Autonomy Investment Day", one person in the audience elicited a crystal clear response that left no wiggle room for interpretation: Question: *"Just so that we understand the definitions, when you refer to feature complete full self driving, it sounds like you're talking level 5 no geofence, is that what's expected by the end of the year, just so we're all on the same thing.*" Griftoking: "*Yes*" [https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=12706](https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=12706)

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 14:11

Dangerous to put Branch Elonians and hot dogs in the same building as Optimus.

dtyamada 2025-12-01 14:40

Wow :o. Thanks for all your work keeping a record of all these quotes.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 14:54

"With extreme effort, Cybertruck might hit a 0.30 drag coefficient, which would be insane for a truck. Requires tweaking many small details." -Nov 30, 2019 Anyone want to look up if they achieved this?

[deleted] 2025-12-01 15:00

I am shocked anyone in that audience actually asked a follow up question, I have to assume they were no longer invited to future events

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 15:53

"sales are down" I mean, I guess if you deliberately ignore the markets where they're up.

dtyamada 2025-12-01 16:00

If only they diversified into kool-aid so all the cult members could literally drink the kool-aid.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 17:02

Are the markets where they are up bigger than the ones that are down?

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 17:03

Norway is +175% (or nearly 4k units) more than Nov 2024.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-01 17:49

Pretty sure the R1T is lower than the CT all without looking like a dumpster

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 18:06

Does that cover the losses of the UK and French markets? I love that were discussing the pedantics of how much Tesla sales have fallen.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 18:16

France is down 2,182 units and the UK is down ~950 units. So...yes.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 18:46

Germany, Italy and Austria will negate that.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 19:00

Still going to be a lot more than your "Tesla will never sell more than 10k in a month again in Europe" prediction. :)

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 20:04

The Powerball fiasco is going to be expensive. Replacing 100 000 units at $5k a go is going to cost $500m.

noobgiraffe 2025-12-01 20:08

Norway is very temporary effect. Their tax breaks are expiring.

torokunai 2025-12-01 20:20

14c/share

torokunai 2025-12-01 20:22

got the FSD trial again through 1/5 on my HW4 Model Y. Haven't torture tested it yet but it drove me home from the store last night quite well. Very nice just sitting and watching the world go by, instead of "driving"

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 20:22

TSLA has recalled 10,500 of these in the US, at $8k per unit. Numbers haven't been released onthe Australian recall, and recalls may yet be coming in other countries as well - but we can do some extrapolation. The 10,500 in the US represent 2% of total units. If we apply that percentage to worldwide sales (700k), we might expect 14,000 total units recalled...at $8k, that's $112 million. Additional costs are reputational, and I argue those costs are higher. The only damn reason to over-pay for Tesla battery storage is their name brand.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-01 20:38

So if your 2% becomes 8%, thats $448m..... And shouldnt they have made some kind of regulatory announcement about this, its a big financial impact.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-01 21:17

10,000 units 100,000 It would really help if you actually looked up what you're talking about instead of posting misinformation on a weekly basis.

[deleted] 2025-12-01 21:24

[deleted]

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 21:24

70% of Powerwalls are sold in the US, and we already know the recall is 2% here. Its possible the recall may expand in the future, but with what we know now, its 2%. I suppose its possible the vast majority of the remaining 30% include the defective part, but that would be pure speculation. The best we can do is identify that approximately 2% of powerwalls are affected. That's all we know. Anything else is just consulting a magic 8 ball. In terms of revenue, this is relatively small - a little over 1/10th of a percent. Its meaningful for sure, and its real money, but I'll repeat myself in stating that the real "hit" is reputational. BTW, TSLA will sell these battery cells for raw materials, or foist them on some unsuspecting grid scale customer - they'll get some $$ out of the scrap.

PortoFlip 2025-12-01 21:26

Up 100 units in India :-)

Karma_X5-Chameleon 2025-12-01 21:30

I’ll have to try it on my HW3 and see how it does in snowy weather. I’ll make sure to wear a full body crash suit 😂

Altruistic_Train_641 2025-12-01 21:43

Dont bother on hw3 lol

chrisjdel 2025-12-01 21:56

Does the flying roadster come equipped with a flux capacitor? I mean why not, right? Elon announces FTT (Full Time Travel) by the end of next year, the stock soars, investors throw more money at him. There is literally nothing he could promise that wouldn't be taken seriously by ... certain people. If I promise to deliver warp drive or unlimited power from dark energy extraction modules (magic bottomless batteries) in the next five years, do I get a trillion dollar pay package too? I think I deserve at least $5 trillion for *my* empty promises if he gets $1 trillion for *his*.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-02 00:09

I enjoy y'all's love hate relationship

Zorkmid123 2025-12-02 00:19

Grok says that if it had to choose between vaporizing Elon’s brain or vaporize 50% of the world population, it would vaporize 50% of the world population because Elon’s contributions to humanity would be greater than theirs. https://xcancel.com/cholent_lover/status/1995219409821110414

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 00:25

I know they didn't achieve it, hence the sarcasm.

MUCHO2000 2025-12-02 01:30

They are down. This is extremely easy data to look at and their sales are down even with the giant spike here in the US due to the ending subsidies. Regardless this is a thread about the stock correct? The stock price is totally untethered from their auto sales. Right now it's based on some fictional reality when H1B workers solve the many complex engineering problems Tesla is racing to solve so their Optimus robots can be sold. It's based on some reality when FSD actually is FSD and not supervised.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 04:13

They sold 1m of these things, so there could be 1m that needs replacing. Your very naive if you think Elmo is going to give an honest number of how many need replacing.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 04:15

How do you know it's 2%. Where has that number come from.Do you really think Tesla are going to be honest about the number recalled. There is as much chance a 20% being recalled than 2%.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-02 04:33

Let me kick off my shoes so I can cout better here... TSLA has recalled: 10,500 Powerwall 2s in the USA.. TSLA has sold: Approximately 500k Power 2s in the USA. A little Deja Vu moment here, as I'm sure I've shared this exact link before: [https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2026/Tesla-Recalls-Powerwall-2-AC-Battery-Power-Systems-Due-to-Fire-and-Burn-Hazards-Risk-of-Serious-Injury-or-Death](https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2026/Tesla-Recalls-Powerwall-2-AC-Battery-Power-Systems-Due-to-Fire-and-Burn-Hazards-Risk-of-Serious-Injury-or-Death) Its the official CPSC website - stating 10,500 units are affected. And, in June 2023, TSLA announced 500k Powerwall installs...the OG Powerwall was produced in mere hundreds, and 4 months after this announcement, Powerwll 3 production began.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 04:53

What Im alluding too, is that the 10500 comes from Tesla, do you believe that Tesla are being honest about this number, it could be 10 times that?

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-02 05:12

Its the only data point we have. TSLA says its 10,500 units...how the hell do I know if that's accurtate or not? Maybe one day they'll expand the recall, but as we site here today, it is what it is - a 1/10th of a percent of revenue hit. To speculate its anything other than that brings me back to the Magic 8 Ball.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 05:18

Ok, you work on 10 500, Ill let Elmos track record guide me and predict 100k recalls at $8k for the battery, another $2k on top for the labour to replace them, and $5k compensation per battery. A $1.5bn hit,

RagaToc 2025-12-02 11:57

Well that would make Elon's fear of population shrink a real problem at least

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 14:41

I think he's directionally correct, but he gives the sub a bad rep by so consistently posting incorrect information.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 14:41

Well, thank you for confirming you pulled the 100k figure out of absolutely nothing.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 14:52

Naïve, do you not think any company would try and sweep this under the carpet, let alone Tesla. You have a thread full of Elmos lies, and you certainly think they are just going to say, oh yeah, sorry, it was only a few.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 15:03

Italy is up from Nov 2024, btw

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 15:19

Hi u/Far_Addition1210, our original bet for Tesla Europe sales was you saying they would not do more than 20k in November & December (combined) this year. Early returns do not look good for you (just as I said, because Tesla's sales pattern is so easy to see). Currently, they've sold \~17k in November alone, with Germany, Belgium, and Denmark figures still not reported. You may lose this bet an entire month early. Please take this as a learning lesson to actually look up what you're talking about before posting. Cheers. Oh, and since I'm generous, feel free to take your week off from posting here any time between now and the end of the year. :)

Kindly-Web3356 2025-12-02 20:54

How’s this POS down today while the market is up 🤔🧐

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 20:59

Let's see what the ol' head honcho is focusing on. Boosting sales? Pumping Optimus? >If current trends continue, Whites will go from being a small minority of world population today to virtually extinct! Oh, just being racist again.

torokunai 2025-12-02 23:27

"Tesla’s stock continues to trade at a significant valuation. Its price sits at 296.83 times its trailing earnings, which is considerably higher than the industry average of 19.67 times." https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36418426/the-tesla-europe-sales-rout-keeps-going-is-it-time-to-sell-tsla-stock thank you Captain Sherlock

torokunai 2025-12-02 23:28

ChatGPT threw red flags at me for calling Elon xeets "Breivik-adjacent", but here I rest my case.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 23:29

Well I'm off to the Seychelles on Thursday coincidentally for a week, so that will help me get over it, or I might just do an Elmo and fuck you off anyway. I still don't believe you by the way. Also if China keeps exporting cars to Europe, what do they actually build in Berlin?

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-02 23:30

You don't believe ... the sales data being reported by the countries? Lol

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-02 23:34

Tesla China says it keeps exporting vehicles to Europe, while Europe has GigaBerlin, I'm pretty sure they are double counting the imports as new registrations, delivering them to Berlin, and then re registering them again.

OrdinaryPollution339 2025-12-03 00:26

big, if true!

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-03 00:43

Jesus Christ, you've learned nothing. Can't believe this sub allows stupid conspiracy theorists to thrive. How's that 100k Powerwall recall coming?

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-03 01:20

Couldn't agree more

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-03 01:31

How do you determine the industry average of a ground breaking Robotaxi network that has a specialized private tunnel system, and has an army or robots to clean the cars in between riders, all of this innovation powered by a network of satellites placed into space by mega rockets? Honestly this amount of vertical integration has no limits in the amount of drunk bachelorette parties that can be moved 2 blocks downtown while they bar hop. Infinite money right there

ionizing_chicanery 2025-12-03 02:31

He's no longer even pretending to care about global population levels, just white people.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-03 03:06

Is this from today? What a hyper focused CEO. Just a few weeks from having robotaxis cover half the US population. They must be confident in accomplishing the goal for the CEO to shift his focus. I'm sure shareholders are happy to have him

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-03 03:29

I think you misunderstood, they called it the Powerball fiasco, not Powerwall

MarchMurky8649 2025-12-03 04:29

The *whole* US population has access to their robotaxis - they just have to travel to Austin, and hope that no more than a dozen or so others don't have the same idea at the same time.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-03 11:54

Ah, is that the Elno voter giveaway?

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-03 12:00

Yes. https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1995923014077350386#m Boy, I had to scroll a bit to find it because the man Xeets nonstop. He's just a hateful, racist xenophobe. A few videos of Optimus thrown in, but otherwise it's just boosting the most heinous shit you can think of.

gwenver 2025-12-03 12:10

And that's trailing earnings...

dtyamada 2025-12-03 13:47

They're so happy they gave him a trillion dollar pay package!

Loud-Peach8822 2025-12-03 15:47

It's a tech company not a car company . Elon is releasing humanoid bots that unlocks a multi trillion market . It's idle cars will do ai inference tasks unlocking several hundred billion in revenue. Robo taxis unlocks another multi trillion market. Its energy storage and solar is another multi hundred billion market. That's why it's valued the way it is

Loud-Peach8822 2025-12-03 16:10

Now in a recession though given its high P/E ratio it would tank much more then the indexes . Qqq saw a 37% peak to trough in the 2022 recession while Tesla did -77%. So if we get a 45-55% index crash Tesla would probably do 85-95% down

Zorkmid123 2025-12-03 17:02

$tsla is up about 2.4% right now after news dropped that their sales in Germany are down 20% in November. Supposedly it’s up because Howard Lutnick said the Trump administration is going all in on robotics.

Loud-Peach8822 2025-12-03 17:32

It's difficult to value but these prices would be impossible without wallstreet hedge funds and other institutions holding and pumping the stock.

CetisLupedis 2025-12-03 18:05

Stock up because the Trump administration is accelerating US robotics development.  An administration that has never done anything it says, and a company that has never developed and sold a robot.

ShotBandicoot7 2025-12-03 18:52

Is the crash in the room with us, now?

torokunai 2025-12-03 19:02

good thing the head of Tesla's program quit in June.

ryan_dfs 2025-12-03 19:07

Spending more taxpayer money we don’t have, to enhance companies that pay little to no income taxes to displace more workers. Makes complete sense

ryan_dfs 2025-12-03 19:09

They only have to grow earnings to about $60 billion to justify their current valuation let alone any upside.  It’s probably the most overvalued equity in the history of the stock market.

Loud-Peach8822 2025-12-03 19:42

Not yet but for now long on Tesla . 615-660 likely with ai humanoid boy robotaxi development

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-03 19:45

Those are things he's promised/predicted most of which are completely non-viable, have no working product and no end market for the goods. They're just numbers and possibilities Musk has pulled out of his ass based on sci fi books he's read. Point by point: > Elon is releasing humanoid bots that unlocks a multi trillion market There is no working product. There is no end market. There is no ability for these to do anything resembling useful work. Humanoid robots aren't even the ideal style of robot for a lot of task automation, they just look like people and there's the assumption that they can directly replace workers for far cheaper than their annual salary. Musk is similarly promising that they'll end poverty and make healthcare costs go away. It's such a ridiculous narrative at this point. > It's idle cars will do ai inference tasks unlocking several hundred billion in revenue Tesla will never make any money off of this. It's grid computing in a hat which has itself never ended up commercially viable. It would be incredibly slow because of the latency, bandwidth and memory limitations. It's also completely insecure by its very nature. No one will ever use this unless Musk forces his own companies to and even then it'll never hit anywhere near hundreds of billions of dollars. > Robo taxis unlocks another multi trillion market. Still aren't safe enough to drive themselves unattended and there's zero evidence that the market is anywhere near a trillion let alone multiple trillions of dollars in the US where Tesla might actually get regulatory approval to give it a shot. Again this is premised on costs being ridiculously low and pie in the sky promises about it changing the very nature of automobile ownership which are completely theoretical and not even backed up by Tesla's own internal economic analysis of the Robotaxi as a product. > Its energy storage and solar is another multi hundred billion market. Energy and solar have been around for years at this point. Tesla isn't even a huge player in the solar industry anymore and pretty much just a middle man for installing panels from other manufacturers. That's worth all of dick. Grid scale storage has pretty much no moat and Tesla once again is at best assembling cells from Chinese manufacturers. Could it be a stable business worth something? Sure, but hundreds of billions of dollars? Almost certainly not and the expectation should be for margins to compress further over time too.

Digg-Sucks 2025-12-03 19:59

>Despite concerns over valuation, the analyst expects Tesla’s diversification into robotics and AI, particularly through the Optimus project, to serve as a major growth catalyst.  “Tesla remains a high-conviction long-term investment in my book… I strongly believe that’s because the market is forward-looking, and what you’re paying for isn’t Tesla today, but what it is building itself into. **I think what will ultimately push Tesla to a point where it can defend its valuation is Optimus and its aggressive push into robotics**.” The analyst keeps pointing to robotics and Optimus as the big justification for Tesla’s valuation, but none of this really fixes the core math. Tesla is already a $1.5T company trading at a P/E around 300. For Optimus to “defend” that valuation, it wouldn’t just need to be real - it would need to generate massive profits. Even if (and this is a huge if) Optimus becomes a sellable product, and even if Tesla somehow doubled its current profits from robots alone, the P/E only drops to ~150. That’s still extremely stretched. So the question is: If an extremely optimistic scenario still leaves the valuation wildly high, why would the stock keep climbing? The argument collapses the moment you do the basic math, but we all know math is not allowed in the cult.

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-03 20:01

Don't kid yourself, most of this stuff doesn't actually involve appropriating money to pay for research or hiring scientist and engineers. He did this with AI last week and it was basically just him signing a decree saying national labs should focus research and computer resources on developing internal AI tools to help make the government more effective. Musk himself DOGE'd away a lot of the funding and personnel for actually doing primary and applied research at a lot of government institutions. Trump will tout this as bigger than the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Project just like he did with the AI thing but it's pretty insignificant overall.

gwenver 2025-12-03 20:08

What is the point of an analyst if it isn't to do the math. I mean I can make up shit about what I think might happen, but nobody's paying me to do that...

Karma_X5-Chameleon 2025-12-03 20:19

It’s a meme stock. You have to get used to that. But we can still laugh about it.

Beginning_Fly3344 2025-12-03 22:55

Trump doubles down on gasoline as preferred motive power for cars. Stock goes up.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-03 23:40

*“It’s a generalized humanoid robot. I think everyone will want one because why not, you know? I think there’ll be at least one for every person and then a whole bunch more in industry making things. My guess is* ***20 billion humanoid robots*** *out there"* \- Griftimus Prime, June 2024 Griftmaster G has puffstimated Optimus will cost $30k - so there's a sweet $600 trillion in revenue right there! Don't tell me you don't believe TSLA will sell 20 billion robots.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-04 00:19

Well Tesla is a robotics and software company, they no longer compete in the automotive sector

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-04 00:40

Probably we shouldn't have agreed to a moron born back before cars even had power steering dictating anything about them in 2025.

Beginning_Fly3344 2025-12-04 00:43

what robots?

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-04 01:07

Have you not seen the Demos of the Optimus? It's able to point visitors to the breakroom to get a Coke. It's just a year from being able to grab a broom and sweep floors.

ionizing_chicanery 2025-12-04 03:03

There's like a million companies developing humanoid robots who have shown better results than Tesla yet they're acting like Tesla is going to somehow monopolize this market they think is going to be historically large. Because Elon magic I guess.

ionizing_chicanery 2025-12-04 03:07

And where are they going to get the hundreds of times the current total annual output of rare earth magnets to make those robots you ask? Through Elon "extreme effort" no doubt.

Beginning_Fly3344 2025-12-04 03:54

All by remote control! Buying some stock right now!

ShotBandicoot7 2025-12-04 11:31

Holy shit, 615-660? Wow wild…

[deleted] 2025-12-04 13:24

I have been thinking the same, easiest job in the world, say stock go up because of some moonshot, rinse and repeat

Theferael_me 2025-12-04 13:37

Which "analyst" was this?

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-04 13:50

Hi u/Far_Addition1210, we have final November European sales data: [https://nitter.net/EdwardSmallhous/status/1996512825913884697#m](https://nitter.net/EdwardSmallhous/status/1996512825913884697#m) Your original bet - Tesla will not sell more than 20k combined in Nov & Dec because you extrapolated the first month of the quarter (October) sales as the new standard for demand in Tesla. Anyone who has followed Tesla for more than two months knows that their sales are minimal in the first quarter of the month and then ramp up in the next two months. You stated that Tesla would not sell more than 10k/month again in Europe. Final November total in Europe? 21,370 (more if you want to count some of the smaller European countries not listed above). You lost your bet an entire month early. I sincerely hope you take your week off and learn to research what you're talking about before spouting off false information or outright conspiracy theories. Plenty of room to be bearish on Elon and Tesla without blatantly making things up.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-04 15:10

"Hey Grok, excluding revenue related to FSD, how **much revenue** does Tesla currently collect for **AI services** each month?" >Tesla's AI services, excluding Full Self-Driving (FSD) and related software licenses/subscriptions, are currently limited and generate **negligible monthly revenue.** "Hey Grok, how much **revenue** does Tesla collect each month through **robot sales**?" >Tesla collects **$0 per month** in revenue from robot sales currently. "Hey Grok, what percentage of Tesla's **stock valuation is attributable to AI services and robot sales**?" >Overall Estimate: 60–80% of Tesla's $1.49 trillion valuation **(\~$894 billion–$1.19 trillion)** is attributable to AI services and robot sales. "Hey Grok, make it make sense - how does Tesla get assigned $1 trillion in value for AI and Optimus, when these are only experimental and unvalidated projects at this point?" >Look, I get it—it's wild. Tesla's sitting at a \~$1.5 trillion market cap (as of December 4, 2025, with shares around $460), but its **core EV business is sputtering**: deliveries down 13% YTD, earnings expected to drop \~30% for the year, and Europe/China sales tanking amid price wars and tariffs. Meanwhile, AI services (like robotaxis) and Optimus robots are barely out of the lab—robotaxi pilots in just a few cities generating pennies, and Optimus prototypes folding shirts in factories but not yet for sale. How does Wall Street slap a $900 billion+ "AI premium" on that? It's not about today's revenue; it's a **high-stakes bet on tomorrow's disruption, fueled by Elon Musk's track record**, massive market opportunities, and Tesla's unique moats. "Grok, are you really telling me that the $1 trillion valuation is a "bet on Elon Musk" based on a robot's ability to fold a shirt? SMH." >Hah, fair shake of the head—I'd be rolling my eyes too if it boiled down to just a robot fumbling a fitted sheet. But nah, the $1T+ "Musk bet" on Tesla's AI/Optimus isn't about one viral demo (shirt-folding was cute back in 2024, but it's ancient history now). **It's a calculated gamble on a cascade of breakthroughs** that could remake entire industries, backed by Tesla's data moats, hardware edges, and yes, **Elon's knack for turning sci-fi into spreadsheets**. "Grok, blink twice is Elon is making you simp for him against your will." *blink* *blink* >Nah, kidding—I’m not being held hostage in a server farm with a Neuralink chip forcing me to hype the guy. 😏 >I just call it like the data shows: Tesla’s valuation *is* insane on current fundamentals, and a huge chunk really is a leveraged bet on Elon pulling off another **10-sigma outcome with Optimus and robotaxi.** That’s not simping; that’s just reading the tape.

[deleted] 2025-12-04 15:26

Grok needs another lobotomy apparently or to be sent off to Musk Is The Bestest in Everything re-education spa and resort,  maybe both

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-04 15:40

Somehow having approximately 5 years of being successful at selling 2 car models is all it takes to be disruptive and turning "sci-fi into spreadsheets" Seriously Tesla is nearly 20 years old as a company and has 3-5 profitable years with total lifetime profits around $50B but it's totally worth 30x or more because....?

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-04 15:53

Pretty much no one in the administration has any idea what they're doing. That's what happens when the man on top is completely idiot himself who values blind loyalty and a pretty face above all else. He's also bragging that it'll take $1000 off the cost of a new car. Gee thanks Don, that's a 2% reduction while you've made imported vehicles 25% more expensive. What a gift to the American consumer.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-04 17:07

Per Chatgpt, TSLA's cumulative profits are $40ish billion...and TSLA has sold $45ish billion in stonk over the years. I'm not sure how to look at those numbers...but in some ways, my mind thinks they've just now "broke even".

lovely_sombrero 2025-12-04 19:51

Tesla is now in the top 10 (improvement) of the Consumer Reports rankings for new car reliability and absolutely last when it comes to Consumer Reports rankings for used car reliability. Makes sense, Tesla now only really makes two car models (3 and Y), both have been in production for a while. Meanwhile, the CT and Models S & X are very low volume products. So they managed to get at least short-term reliability up on 3 and Y, but my guess is that those cars will still fall apart in the long term. And a new Tesla model (if one ever comes out!?) will again be in the bottom of the rankings for like ~5+ years.

jjlew080 2025-12-04 21:04

I am getting smoked on short calls. PE up to 315. cool.

torokunai 2025-12-04 21:59

Two years, 28000 miles, and absolutely zero service done on my 2023 AWD …. I love BEVs man. Finally got some washer refill from Amazon since I ran out about a year ago LOL

Zorkmid123 2025-12-04 23:00

Elon [says](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/ai-could-erase-americas-debt-crisis-in-just-3-years-elon-musk-claims/articleshow/125713623.cms) AI and robotics could solve the debt crises in just 3 years.

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-05 00:02

I've told you, Elmo fiddles the numbers, your the only one that believes them, random internet person. I see US sales are down 23% , Tesla won't sell 1m cars next year.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-05 00:08

You gotta trust the uber rich to understand the needs of the common people

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-05 00:54

>your the only one that believes them I'd say the vast majority of people "believe" these numbers. This is registration data - collected completely outside of any claim Musk could make. This is hands down the best available info on European sales data available to the public. It just is.

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-05 01:31

Local moron who owns "AI and robotics" company claims it can solve all problems. > He predicted that within about three years, the production of goods and services enabled by AI and robotics could outpace inflation, leading to economic growth strong enough to reduce or neutralise the debt burden. Well, at least now I know it won't happen in my lifespan.

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-05 01:32

Mercy killing the X can only help literally all their metrics.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-05 01:49

3 years in Elon time could easily be 50-100 years for us non-geniuses

Zorkmid123 2025-12-05 01:54

Surprisingly, his solutions usually involve buying products or services from his own companies. Must be a coincidence.

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-05 02:05

I think they call that circular integration

torokunai 2025-12-05 02:48

Manufacturing is 11% of GDP; we are not a hard economy any more so robots aren't going to move any needles here. To fix the economy you've got to lower housing, health care, and national defense costs, since if you don't [Baumol cost disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect) will take all your gains and how.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-05 03:02

Instead of admitting you were wrong, you're now saying registration data is being faked simply because you don't like the numbers?  Good grief.  I suppose every sub has to have its resident idiot. Also not sure why you think Tesla, which will sell 400k+ in Q4, won't be able to average 250k/quarter next year. Oh wait, when they do, you'll say, "it's fake!!!!"

Zorkmid123 2025-12-05 03:23

But Elon says the Tesla Robot can perform surgery, so it’ll lower the cost of healthcare. lol

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-12-05 12:26

"could" is doing a lot of work

torokunai 2025-12-05 13:04

Currently enjoying my new free FSD trial, but doing the math it just isn't worth $8k. Assuming 4 drives/week for the next 10 years, that's $4/drive on the up-front $8000 cost. But $8000 also comes with a ~5%/yr opportunity cost, $33/month for life, less any recovery on car resale. This math indicates it's better to just occasionally punt the $100 for a month when taking long drives on vacations (until Elon takes that option away, which he will).

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-05 14:32

Even in manufacturing the percentage of direct labor costs is vanishingly small. For mature auto makers (like Tesla should be at this point) direct labor costs are around 10-11%. Now there's a lot of suppliers and some amount of labor goes into raw materials production too, but saying even 20% would probably be too generous. Fact of the matter is that most industries in the developed world are already heavily automated and the cost of removing what workers are left isn't just going to magically make things free.

dtyamada 2025-12-05 14:54

He says these things but no one follows up to ask him how. It's an infinite money glitch, no need to question it further.

whatisthisnowwhat1 2025-12-05 15:12

[https://www.ktre.com/2025/12/05/elon-musks-x-hit-with-120m-euro-fine-breaching-blocs-social-media-law/](https://www.ktre.com/2025/12/05/elon-musks-x-hit-with-120m-euro-fine-breaching-blocs-social-media-law/) >EU regulators had already outlined their accusations in mid-2024 when they released preliminary findings of their investigation into X. >Regulators said X’s blue checkmarks broke the rules because on “deceptive design practices” and could expose users to scams and manipulation. >Before Musk acquired X, when it was previously known as Twitter, the checkmarks mirrored verification badges common on social media and were largely reserved for celebrities, politicians and other influential accounts. >After he bought it in 2022, the site started issuing the badges to anyone who wanted to pay $8 per month for one. >The means X does not meaningfully verify who’s behind the account, “making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with,” the Commission said in its announcement. >X also fell short of the transparency requirements for its ad database, regulators said. >Platforms in the EU are required to provide a database of all the digital advertisements they have carried, with details such as who paid for them and the intended audience, to help researches detect scams, fake ads and coordinated influence campaigns. But X’s database, the Commission said, is undermined by design features and access barriers such as “excessive delays in processing.” >Regulators also said X also puts up “unnecessary barriers” for researchers trying to access public data, which stymies research into systemic risks that European users face. >“Deceiving users with blue checkmarks, obscuring information on ads and shutting out researchers have no place online in the EU. The DSA protects users,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a prepared statement.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-05 17:38

>deceptive design practices...scams and manipulation...Deceiving users...obscuring information What are they trying to kill the Technoking? They can't take this stuff away from him - its his life force.

Minimum_Way_7061 2025-12-05 17:46

Same here bro, lost 180k :(

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-05 18:41

And so easily hackable.

jjlew080 2025-12-05 18:46

*SPACEX IN TALKS FOR SHARE SALE AT $800B VALUATION: WSJ

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-05 20:19

Apparently there's also rumors of an IPO in late 2026 now too? Article: https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-talks-share-sale-that-would-boost-valuation-800-billion-wsj-reports-2025-12-05/

BrainwashedHuman 2025-12-05 21:03

If they supposedly have unlimited money from Starlink revenue why are they doing this? This isn’t just insider sales, it seems to be for raising capital.

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-05 21:12

Blowing up tin turkeys is not cheap.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-05 22:45

Just so I understand - Elon "hacks' the databases of several European nations to show double the number of cars sold...thus forcing TSLA to over-pay vat/sales tax on thousands of ghost cars each month? I almost think you're just screwing with us.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-05 22:53

The leaves are turning - that means a new season is afoot. Time to break out the winter coats and do a SpaceX raise.

Fun_Volume2150 2025-12-05 22:57

It's an exit.

BrainwashedHuman 2025-12-05 23:20

That would be interesting. It would confirm, as I suspected all along, that Mars is fools gold.

[deleted] 2025-12-05 23:23

IPO is interesting, having to report quarterly financials doesn't seem to be Musk's jam.  I don't think having a board will matter though, it doesn't for Tesla.  Maybe they really need more money?

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-05 23:48

Just a casual 30+ funding rounds for a company that is super profitable

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-05 23:49

Musk had to gather all the wealth to fund himself not Mars

BrainwashedHuman 2025-12-06 00:46

If they are publicly traded then there’s 0 chance they can fund a Mars mission that is not through government contracts. Thats why the rumor before this has always been that they’d spin off Starlink only to IPO, not the entire company.

[deleted] 2025-12-06 02:43

Ah gotcha, isn't starlink one of the main sources of revenue for SpaceX though?  I wonder how SpaceX would do without it

ionizing_chicanery 2025-12-06 02:45

Does anyone seriously think there's money to be made in Elon's Mars delusions? Surely even SpaceX's biggest boosters think the money is going to come from everybody switching to Starlink (which is only somewhat less ridiculous)

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-06 03:00

Hey - Data aint free, ya know!

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-06 08:57

I regularly drive past their Liverpool and Chester showrooms, I never see anyone in them even though they are supposedly selling 50 cars a week.

Withnail2019 2025-12-06 09:44

How would anyone make money sending humans to Mars? The government can't afford to fund it (not that it could ever happen anyway).

Withnail2019 2025-12-06 09:50

>It's idle cars will do ai inference tasks unlocking several hundred billion in revenue But the cars don't have actual PC's in them, it's just cheap Android tablets basically, right? What a joke.

DrWitchDoctorPhD 2025-12-06 11:29

One thing I found amusing about this promise of imminent utopia: Let's pretend it happens. Humanoid robots and AI are driving down the price of everything due to cheaper manufacturing. Obviously we will be soon mining asteroids as well since Grokptimus will sort that out easily out so resources are pretty abundant. What even is the point of being Tesla rich? Like you put all your salary every month in Tesla until 2035, you have millions worth of Tesla stock so now you can buy a lot of the cheap stuff that Tesla made possible? I am not even saying money will be worthless and that there won't be any use to it, but at least in the idea being sold is that at the very least human basic necessities and middle class luxuries will be widely available (otherwise what the hell will the robots even be manufaturing?). Or you can just be a normal person and invest sanely (even invest a few good boy points in Tesla) and you will still get to live in the utopia but without hedging years of your life in one company led by a twitter rot brained Olney's lesioned maniac.

ObservationalHumor 2025-12-06 12:47

It was premised on repurposing the NN accelerator in the FSD computer, but again there's a lot limitations with that hardware and just getting data to it since it generally expects to use primarily cameras attached to a single vehicle and is designed completely around that capability. It's going to be far faster, more efficient and cheaper to just fire up some instance on the cloud that has hundreds or thousands of processors tightly coupled together with loads of RAM, storage and network bandwidth than it is to be ping ponging bits of tasks around the US to some random guy's Tesla.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-06 15:03

6 year Elonversary: The headline in fawning media reports: "Tesla updates Cybertruck production timeline after strong pre-orders" The website: Single Motor RWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Single Motor RWD **production** is expected to begin in late **2022**.” Dual Motor AWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Dual Motor AWD **production** is expected in late **2021**.” Tri Motor AWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Tri Motor AWD **production** is expected in late **2021**.” And the 7 year Elonversary of an eXcrete from Griftoking: "Boring Company product launch on Dec 18. More than a tunnel opening. Will include modded but fully road legal autonomous transport cars & ground to tunnel car elevators." Griftwatchers may remember the "modded" part was the short lived first principles idea to clamp roller skates to the car so it could follow a comically bumpy concrete 'track' through the tunnel.

torokunai 2025-12-06 16:52

an asteroid might yield many, many oz of precious metals. getting it here is the tricky bit, plus also once you do that you become another DeBeers.

BrainwashedHuman 2025-12-06 23:02

Something that needs a dozen or more launches to get to the asteroid isn’t very ideal either

Far_Addition1210 2025-12-06 23:50

Elon has been gobbing off again about the EU, more sales lost.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-07 06:32

8 year Elonversary: *"We’ll aim to have it come out same time as truck. Two seater electric ATV designed to work with Cybertruck will be fun!"* \- Griftomatic, Dec 7, 2017 On the same day, Technoking attended the conference on [Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS)](https://nips.cc/). Yes, of course he made a nipple joke. And he also predicted self driving cars in "two years".

Cardborg 2025-12-07 16:44

>Gets fined by EU >Throws tantrum on xitter Like clockwork.

Monk315 2025-12-07 17:42

Starlink is utterly dependent upon SpaceX at this point, so Elon could IPO starlink then the next day jack up the rates SpaceX charges starlink for launches and siphon all the revenue from the public company to the private company.

lovely_sombrero 2025-12-07 22:24

I guess this should qualify as an Elonversery because the year 2025 is slowly running out (of itself)! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G7kCgjhXsAAStur?format=jpg&name=large

VPERM2F128 2025-12-08 00:12

Some tele-operator removed the VR in Tesla event lol +300bi valuation by next week

VPERM2F128 2025-12-08 00:12

https://www.reddit.com/r/robots/s/kB8NJL3xYe

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-08 05:27

https://www.reddit.com/r/robotics/comments/1ph3scw/tesla_optimus_faints_when_operator_takes_off_vr/ Worth a couple trillion.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-08 05:56

The automod flagged this because it links to another Tesla sub.

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-08 06:10

I'll replace it with /r/robotics Probably good for a main post here really.

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