Betting markets for Musk Predictions?

I mean, isn't this basically what polymarket is?

I'll bet the farm on "next year".

Which is owned by Thiel.

Polymarket does/did have Tesla launch contracts

Interesting concept. If you could get TSLA fanboys excited about it and the markets showed overwhelmingly that the punters think Musk's predictions/promises/puffery are full of shit. It would be a good case showing the hypocrisy of pumping TSLA shares because of Musk's lies. Maybe when we get more info on his trillion dollar payout goals and targets the wagers can be set off them. The odds would probably look something like this though: Will Musk land a spacecraft on mars by 2028? YES: 500/1 NO: 1.0000000001/1

Unfortunately I think you might be right. Too bad as I like the idea of easy money.

The betting market(s) know the chance of Musk delivering on his promises is very low. The odds are very lopsided in these kind of bets. You would not make much money. Polymarket and others do have these kind of bets.

To be fair, they put their money where their mouth is: stock is pumping and they hold on to it. Not more conviction possible than that. And the whole analyst-Musk-Tech Bro-X influencers-robotaxi fanboys-Circle Jerk is an echo chamber that might keep this going for some time.

There was a whole discussion over this after his Austin taxi went live. People who bet yes wanted their money but obviously it didn't meet the definition of a robotaxi or wide release, which were clearly defined in the betting terms.

Kalshi has bets on that

Easy money, just not a lot of it

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