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TSLA Terathread - For the week of Nov 24

AutoModerator | 2025-11-24 10:00 | 37 views

Original Terathread returns!

Comments (138)
FrogmanKouki 2025-11-24 10:46

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ozcea0/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_nov_17/

Zorkmid123 2025-11-24 15:33

The wonderful Department of Governmemt Efficiency DOGE has been disbanded, 10 months early. Ironically, to save money. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/23/trump-musk-doge-reportedly-disbanded It was supposed to cut $2 trillion from the debt (later $1 trillion then $100 billion) but in reality it did nothing of the sort as the debt has increased since DOGE was created. But it did give us BIg Balls.

RagaToc 2025-11-24 15:36

hey it likely saved the billionaire quite a bit of money. Due to the cuts on the IRS and so it's easier for them to cheat on their taxes. As there is no one around to spend the weeks or months to audit them.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-24 15:41

Tezzlur up more than an entire GM today on .... nothing?

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-24 15:56

It's still early it could go up 2 GMs on the promises of becoming an AI chip manufacturer that beats all the current makers... Remember it's not about profits it's about puffery and promises

amplaylife 2025-11-24 16:00

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/24/tesla-stock-to-274/

mapf0000 2025-11-24 16:04

Just the usual market manipulation. TSLA won‘t fall during donnies term.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-24 16:15

>TSLA **Cash** (including cash equivalents) constitutes **$42 Bil** of **$134 Bil in total Assets**. This equates to a **Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 31.1%** I suspect that one day after the dust settles, this will turn out to be very creative accounting.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-24 16:20

Any day now, Elon will activate the Optimus Army and usher in an era of abundance...so as each day passes us by, we get closer to that state of nirvana, and TSLA becomes more valuable.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-24 16:20

Elmo has said he is going to start making AI chips apparently..............Its hard not to laugh.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-24 16:22

If they only have $134bn in assets against a $1.4tn valuation and are about to make losses, that doesn't look very good. The share price should be $50.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-24 16:24

Elmo is becoming Trevor Milton more and more each day.

noobgiraffe 2025-11-24 16:26

I watch quite a few stocks. Tesla is the only one that has so many of these random huge moves on no news.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-24 16:30

I honestly don't know what's considered a proper ratio...but I'm highly suspect of their Cash position. Per Grok, TSLA earned $1.07 billion in interest in 2023 and $1.57 billion in 2024. Methinks there's a whole lot more "equivalents" than there is "cash".

plants33 2025-11-24 16:53

A bit insulting to Mr. Milton I'd say.

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-24 17:32

Do they consider equivalents the parking lots full of cars? Some would say that's a liability but Tesla may consider the same as cash

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-24 17:34

They are going to be a FAB, it's so easy to do it they could probably do it in the same tents they make their cars.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-24 18:26

I'm sure they do. As much as I hate to admit it though, their inventory isn't really that bad compared to other automakers. Its just more glaringly obvious since they don't have dealer lots to hold all the cars. That being said, I agree that the value of a Cybertruck sitting on a lot may be much less than what TSLA is currently charging - these things just are not moving out the door. I wonder about the leases, though...what value is TSLA assigning to these, now that the used TSLA market has taken a nose-drive?

Minimum_Way_7061 2025-11-24 19:08

Elon's layers said: "His Tweets are corporate puffery, not to be taken seriously". Elon said: "Tesla aims to produce more chips than all other players combined, and I want you to read that line again because I am not joking". Came here to rant, how can investors/regulators not see that this is deliberate sentiment manipulation!! :(

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-24 19:39

[https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/](https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/) Apparently Tesla has 29 cars in their Austin taxi fleet. Just over a month until 50% of the U.S. population is in their service network, though.

Zorkmid123 2025-11-24 19:51

And all have human safety monitors.

RagaToc 2025-11-24 20:07

I would say they have safety drivers. As they are in the driver seat. They used to be in the passenger seat, until Texas law said additional proof needed to be given for no one to be in the driver seat. I can only find information that Tesla had to move the employee to the driver seat in September and not back to the passenger seat.

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-24 21:03

They all want to jump onto TSLA and ride it up with every lie. They think they're all so smart, and can cash in on the obvious puffery. I guess this is capitalism at its peak, creating "value" out of promises that won't happen?

[deleted] 2025-11-24 21:03

Musk trying to make it harder for the lawyers to avoid Tesla being even more culpable in FSD lawsuits going forward, not only puffery, but doubling down on puffery

Zorkmid123 2025-11-24 22:22

Oh ok. Yeah I here mixed things about that. Some of the Tesla Stans say they are in the Passanger seats in Austin expect for freeways. Waymo is not operating with no driver (or someone in the passigner seat monitoring) on freeways in many areas. It’s crazy how far Tesla is behind.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-24 22:34

Q4 must be an absolute horror show

RagaToc 2025-11-24 22:47

ah maybe they are back in the passenger seat. But the move to go to the driver seat is more likely tied to Texas law than because they are on the freeway. https://electrek.co/2025/09/03/tesla-moves-robotaxi-safety-monitor-passenger-drivers-seat/ most relevant bit: > The timing also aligns with the new Texas Senate Bill 2807, which now governs the deployment of automated driving systems in the state, coming into effect on September 1st. > > Prior to this law, Texas was relatively permissive regarding autonomous vehicle testing under earlier statutes, such as SB 2205 (2017), which allowed operation without a human driver as long as vehicles complied with traffic laws, had recording devices, and met federal standards. > > However, SB 2807 introduces stricter oversight for truly driverless operations, including requirements for safety data reporting, first-responder interaction plans, and potential revocation of authorization if safety standards aren’t met. > > Companies must also demonstrate that their systems can achieve a “minimal risk condition” (e.g., safely pulling over) in case of failure and need to qualify as a level 4-5 autonomous driving based on the SAE standard. > > To achieve level 4-5, there can be no human oversight. > > Therefore, by moving the supervisor into the driver’s seat, now serving as a safety driver, the system reverts to level 2, allowing Tesla to continue operating its “robotaxi” without achieving level 4 autonomy.

blazesquall 2025-11-25 00:15

Milton just wasn't Musk enough to get away with it..

mrbuttsavage 2025-11-25 01:13

Tesla "aims" to do a lot of things they don't even remotely do at all. Like making ventilators.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 04:04

An Elonversary in multiple parts: 11/23/2019: *"146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor"* 11/24/2019: *"187k"* 11/25/2019: *"200k"* 11/26/2019: *"250k"* 10/18/2023: *"So, really, the demand is off the charts. We have over 1 million people who have reserved the car."* 7/2023: Tesla's reservation tracker showed 1.9 million reservations 10/2025: A NHTSA recall reveals only 63k all time since November 2023 TSLA will sell fewer than 20k Incel Caminos in 2025, less than 60 per day.

wootnootlol 2025-11-25 05:22

I see more Waymo’s on my daily commute in Silicon Valley.

The_Jack_of_Spades 2025-11-25 12:48

The full European registration data for October 2025 has been released. In the EU Tesla sold 5,647 cars (10,867 in October 2024, -48.0% YoY). YTD sales are 117,000 (192,439 in January-October 2024, -39.2% YTD). In the EU+EFTA+UK Tesla sold 6,964 cars (13,519 in October 2024, -48.5% YoY). YTD sales are 180,688 (256,495 in January-October 2024, -29.6% YTD). BEV sales as a whole increased (+32.9% YoY, +26.2% YTD). The overall European car market is growing slightly (+4.9% YoY, +1.9% YTD). Source https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_October_2025.pdf September 2025 data [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1oj6sep/tsla_megathread_for_the_week_of_oct_29/nm0uv0o/)

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-25 13:13

This is somewhat cherry-picking data (isolating the month, at least). https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart There are already some weird sales going on in Norway in November.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-25 13:14

Notice I left out the robo part.

PortoFlip 2025-11-25 13:24

It is not so weird. Announced in October, VAT exemption is dramatically reduced at the end of this year making Teslas in Norway and other cars in that price range $5000 more expensive in 2026. There is now a buying frenzy for all electric cars.

The_Jack_of_Spades 2025-11-25 13:34

Well, that's why I include the YTD numbers and the link to the previous month's data. I agree that October was uncharacteristically horrible for them and that between the typical Tesla end of quarter sales push, which has been getting even more pronounced in 2025, and the general increase in EV sales at the end of the year, their overall 2025 numbers won't look as bad. We might end up at -35% sales in the EU and -25% across the entire continent. Conversely, I'd caution against putting too much stock in the numbers from the daily reporting countries, since they include Norway and the UK where Tesla has retained a much higher percentage of sales than in France or Germany.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-25 13:37

Oh, yes, 2025 will be down massively from 2024, while the BEV market is growing in the EU and Tesla has no legitimate excuses (other than their CEO is cosplaying as a fascist and their cars suck). They do still do the weird thing of basically selling nothing the first month of the quarter while they build the cars to sell in the second and third month.  So those first months always look bad and then they catch up, even if the overall trend from 2023 is still down.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 14:25

7 year Elonversary: *"There's a 70% chance that I personally go to Mars"*

[deleted] 2025-11-25 15:31

This may be the funniest one, Musk wouldn't go to Mars even if it was possible, like he would give up his lifestyle on Earth

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 15:44

Zero Year Elonversary yesterday: "We expect to build chips at **higher volumes** ultimately **than all other AI chips combined**. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding." "Hey Grok, how many AI chips has Tesla fabricated in company history? - Not how many they have designed or deployed, but how many have they fabricated" >Zero. Tesla has never fabricated AI chips in-house throughout its history. As Elon says, "read that sentence again", and savor the absolute absurdity of it. AI chip fab is hoovering up investor capital all over the world, and long established chip makers are accelerating production - but all it takes is one wave of his magic wand, and TSLA will outdo them all...starting from zero. Its really hard to count how many chip facilities exist in the world, but Google tells me there are 19 of the absolute top tier needed to prodice AI chips, and they cost $20 billion each to start up. So TSLA will need $380 billion just to match today's production (which will surely grow). Where will TSLA get $380 billion? Prediction: In 2026, TSLA will run low on $cash$ and use the AI mirage as an excuse to raise money.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 15:47

I'm just keeping an eye on the top line number. TSLA is on pace to be down 10-15% in 2025 vs 2024. These monthly updates are instructive - unless TSLA just knocks it out of the park in this quarter, they will show a year to year sales drop for the 2nd year in a row. And October's numbers are not showing a banner quarter is happening.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 15:49

I thought maybe he's hop on a rocket if an arrest warrant ever gets issued.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-25 15:52

[https://electrek.co/2025/11/24/elon-musk-admits-automakers-dont-want-license-tesla-full-self-driving/](https://electrek.co/2025/11/24/elon-musk-admits-automakers-dont-want-license-tesla-full-self-driving/) That should be worth, what, at least $100bn off the ol' market cap?

torokunai 2025-11-25 15:59

HW4 = 4680

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-11-25 17:20

I've begun work on a prisoner monitoring ankle bracelet that works in 0g.

lovely_sombrero 2025-11-25 17:29

>"We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding." This is in the same realm of reality as this statement (that I was absolutely sure that the TSLAQ community just made up as a parody): "Tesla Cybertruck (pressurized edition) will be official truck of Mars"

ryan_dfs 2025-11-25 17:33

The stock is green now. Again, for some reason

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 17:38

The Mars colony stuff just floors me. Musk has a knack for finding people with a very high gullibility quotient. Just an ounce of thinking...the "moon buggy" weighed less than 500 lbs - because obviously weight is a huge issue when sending cargo to space. So, why not fantasize about a 6k lb vehicle driving around on Mars?

lovely_sombrero 2025-11-25 17:41

Because his premise is that there will be an entire self-sustainable colony on Mars. The idea of a pressurized edition of the PanelGapsCar™ on top of that is quite funny tho.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-25 18:29

The UK sales are declining. No one likes Elmo Milton here.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 18:37

That's the ketamine kicking in.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-25 18:38

Elmo has no chance on getting into chip production, and he is years behind on AI. If he gets going, the competition will have moved on again, and I reckon he will have to fundraise to do it, showing declining car sales with it, the share price would get battered. Tesla truly is fucked.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-25 18:40

Elmo making chips is as absurd as Nvidia saying they are going to build FSD cars.

CetisLupedis 2025-11-25 18:53

Every earnings call he does a ~~google~~ grok search for whatever stocks are up, and then says that's what Tesla is working on.  Cars? No, robots. Er, AI, I mean chips! Yeah, chips. Next quarter DIS will be up, and he'll convince the bagholders they're working on a theme park.

Engunnear 2025-11-25 19:54

You know - people keep flogging the ketamine meme with him, but I’m pretty sure he moved on to meth years ago.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-25 20:02

I'll preface my response by noting the absurdity that we're even having this conversation about a CEO of a Fortune 500 company, holder of a security clearance, and key figure in our defense industry, and father of small children. I queried Grok: "Hey grok, which drug is Elon Musk abusing now?" >Based on recent reporting, the drug most prominently linked to allegations of heavy use by Elon Musk is ketamine. A New York Times investigation from May 2025 detailed claims from multiple sources that he consumed it so frequently during his involvement in Donald Trump's 2024 campaign and early 2025 administration role that it caused bladder issues—a well-documented side effect of chronic use. The report also mentioned occasional use of ecstasy (MDMA), psychedelic mushrooms, and possible Adderall, but ketamine was singled out as the primary concern, with Musk reportedly traveling with a pill box containing around 20 daily medications. Oh yeah, adding to the absurdity, he was working next to the most powerful figures in our government. I will concede he has lost a lot of weight recently - so you might be on to something with the meth. Why choose just one drug to abuse?

noobgiraffe 2025-11-25 20:04

If you look at his twitter you will se he does this exact thing every day not just before earnings calls. Whatever tweet gets traction about some new technology he will tweet how tesla/xai/spacex will do it better. It doesn't matter how huge amount of work it would be, he will tweet they got it covered even though they never said anything about it before.

The_Jack_of_Spades 2025-11-25 20:08

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ UK Tesla sales are down by 4.51% for Jan-Oct 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, 35,455 vs. 37,131. Sure, they're declining *a bit* but nothing compared to the drop we're seeing in the EU, much less certain countries like Germany.

Far_Addition1210 2025-11-25 20:28

They are popping them out every 10 seconds soon.

Objective-Lychee-506 2025-11-25 20:48

All they have to do is flip a switch! Cyberobotaxicab service will scale up so rapidly, you won't even know what hit you! Trust me, real soon now, any time...

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-11-25 21:54

Maybe he can hire  Matt Damon as a Mars consultant.

mrbuttsavage 2025-11-25 21:59

Don't forget that factory roller coaster.

mrbuttsavage 2025-11-25 22:07

Even if it worked perfectly, which of course it doesn't, no OEM is going to hitch their wagon to *Tesla* of all companies for a bunch of design requirements. New cars go on long design phases. What cameras are required? What placement? What processors? Tesla can't even answer that yet for themselves. I'm sure the software isn't even remotely capable of being separated from the Tesla ecosystem, let alone integrated with the firmware of another car. Even if they wanted to today, they're probably years from being able to even do a POC for a different automaker. And that's if they were actively working towards that which they aren't.

blazesquall 2025-11-25 22:51

How is this not just Dojo BS again? Isn't this just a recycled pump?

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-26 01:45

Don't doubt Elon! He always delivers! Remember the Alien dreadnaught factory that would move so fast? Well he finally delivered on that promise with Teslas built in tents.

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-26 01:50

Can't wait for the Tesla Micron Accuracy to disrupt chip manufacturing

88888_account 2025-11-26 03:33

That is fucking hilarious

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-26 04:00

I for one am excited to learn all the chip fab lingo Technoking learns on Google and Wiki.

ObservationalHumor 2025-11-26 05:29

It is literally Dojo again but focused more heavily on inference instead of training chips. Problem is largely that the chip foundries aren't buying his bullshit anymore after Dojo fizzled. He promised a ton of orders using all these cutting edge technologies from those companies and they just never materialized. So to them it doesn't really matter a whole hell of a lot what Elon Musk says when Nvidia, Google, Apple and Amazon are going to actually put in orders for chips today and sell or use them at a pretty high level of profitability. It's the same crap Musk pulls with everything. Tesla is going to produce some amazing new product that'll cost nothing and do everything. No one will be able to compete and they'll be both ridiculously profitable and complete unchallenged in the space. It pretty much never happens and to date Tesla's biggest wins haven't been amazingly innovative products or moonshot projects but really boring straightforward business decisions that were properly scoped or just plain lucky. Stuff like exporting the finalized build process for the Model 3 to China and building the Y there with lower costs and shorter supply chains and then exporting it to the EU to take advantage of big subsidies and much higher prices. Musk basically fell into an ideal position by accident during COVID by being a denialist and striking a sweetheart deal with China that allowed him to avoid a lot of the supply chain and logistics constraints that paralyzed the rest of the auto industry and the company has just been sliding since then with the only bright spot being a pretty much zero moat grid energy storage business which is under threat in the US as the administration Musk backed cuts significant federal tax incentives for renewables.

noobgiraffe 2025-11-26 10:57

Elon twitted they will double robotaxi count next month. The only problem is on shareholder meeting that was just few weeks ago he said it would be 500 in Austin by EOY. 29 x 2 is only 58. Supervisor was also supposed to be out, no mention of that. Interestingly it might be first time I saw people reacting negatively on X asking what happened to 500 figure. Of course none of this matters as Tesla is chipmaker company so premarket is up.

[deleted] 2025-11-26 11:55

Other people actually calling Musk out on one of his promises?  I would love for that trend to continue

[deleted] 2025-11-26 12:50

[deleted]

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-26 13:19

https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/GB/QoQ-Chart

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-26 13:40

By my count, Tesla has zero "Robotaxis" on the road anywhere. They've got a few dozen taxis - and the only impediment to scaling that is hiring more drivers.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-26 13:40

7 Year Elonversary: "There are way easier places to work, but nobody ever changed the world on 40 hours a week"

noobgiraffe 2025-11-26 13:43

I wouldn't count bay area. Not only they have a person behind the wheel they are forbidden from calling it robotaxi. You might notice they never call it that in any offical materials because they do not have a permit for operating autonomus vehicles in california.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-26 15:03

Elon Musk Now: not working 40 hours a week, not changing the world, boosting racists and bigots on Xitter more than 40 hours a week though.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-26 15:58

Notice how he always comes up with some new announcement or carrot dangling whenever the stock starts dropping. And then for some reason people start buying it back. Easily the biggest fraud since Enron. The fact that sales are falling 50% and it gets no coverage whatsoever is a clear signal of how many people are in on the fraud

Formal_Program5165 2025-11-26 16:08

You've heard it before a million times, but this time it'll get wrecked for real <3 Q4 and 2026 will be shitiously bad.

RagaToc 2025-11-26 16:11

But most of that grow is in bay area, which is just a taxi service. Austin had 15 cars in September and now 29. They won't get to 200 in Austin by end of year (I doubt they will get to 100). And that is a promise Musk made a month ago. Why is anyone reporting on any forecasting/predictions of Musk. He is always off by so much it is useless.

torokunai 2025-11-26 16:48

~~QQQ up 1% this AM but this turd not floating with it is good divergence at least.~~

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-26 17:08

Elon Always Delivers^(1) ^(1)Some Exclusions Apply

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-26 17:09

https://electrek.co/2025/11/26/elon-musk-slashes-tesla-robotaxi-fleet-goal-austin/ Lol

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-26 17:09

"The fact that sales are falling 50%" What sales?  They're falling, but certainly not 50%.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-26 19:11

If we’re going to split hairs, down 49% in Europe and 35.8% in China. I doubt the US will be much different. But apparently nobody cares, because they have an additional 50 “robotaxis” that will generate many thousands in revenue.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-26 20:11

For the first half of 2025, Tesla deliveries dropped 13.0% compared to first half 2024. They really closed the gap with demand pulled forward in Q3 - to being 2.7% behind. My tea leaves predict TSLA deliveries will be down 10% for the entire year, with probably lower margins than 2024 as well. So that's it - a 10% sales decline. Not 40% or 50%. But that's still a HUGE deal. For any Fortune 500 company, that would be cause to completely re-work marketing and other plans. For a "tech" or "growth" company (terms often tossed around in the same sentence as TSLA), this is a disaster. And they won't enter 2026 with any new products in the pipeline - not even refreshes of their stale line-up. But again, for accuracy's sake, you can't pick one month in one market and learn much at all. Its a 10% drop.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-26 20:28

Uh, sales in Europe are down 30% YTD, not 49%.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-26 20:49

The article just came out a week ago. I don’t have the patience to argue with people like you. The numbers are what they are. You can look them up using a google search. Have a good day

mrbuttsavage 2025-11-26 20:51

He certainly did contribute to changing the world for the worse. So he's got that.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-26 20:52

We’re talking about numbers in a post tariff and EV tax credit world. Which is NOT reflected in the numbers you have above.

[deleted] 2025-11-26 21:36

This is hilarious since I doubt he even works 40 hours at Tesla, maybe across all of his companies he logs those hours but I often wonder how many of those hours most people would consider work.  I think Musk shows that CEO is the easiest freaking job in the world, how else could you be a CEO for 6 or more companies.  Also if you fail, you get paid huge amounts to leave. Edit: added more words to easiest freaking job sentence and spelling error

The_Jack_of_Spades 2025-11-26 21:39

> I don’t have the patience to argue with people like you. The numbers are what they are. Yeah, and you would have only needed to scroll a little bit down on this very same thread to find them. Surprise, you're wrong, you're talking monthly (for an outlier month at that) instead of YTD. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1p5d5nv/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_nov_24/nqp2gfs/ Take the L and put the fries in the bag.

Movie_Slug 2025-11-26 21:51

Then they definitely can double or even 100 times the amount of robotaxis.

ryan_dfs 2025-11-26 22:31

Explain why it’s an outlier month then, genius.

The_Jack_of_Spades 2025-11-26 23:45

Month | Tesla EU+EFTA+UK sales | YoY variation (%) ---|---|---- 11/24 | 26191 | -28.4 12/24 | 44697 | +14.0 01/25 | 9945 | -45.2 02/25 | 16888 | -40.1 03/25 | 28502 | -28.2 04/25 | 7261 | -49.0 05/25 | 13863 | -27.9 06/25 | 34781 | -22.9 07/25 | 8837 | -40.2 08/25 | 14831 | -22.5 09/25 | 39837 | -10.5 10/25 | 6964 | -48.5 https://i.imgur.com/AFigKI1.png Not only is it obvious at first glance from the raw data that it is the month with the second largest YoY drop in sales of the past year, and awful even by their usual first month of the quarter standards, if you do a statistical analysis of the dataset it shows that the mean YoY variation is -29.12% with a standard deviation of 17.12, which puts -48.5% outside of said standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution (which it isn't), the probability of Tesla having a worse month in Europe would only be 13%. Is that outlier enough for you, or do I need to ask for my goddamn fries again?

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-27 01:46

Always delivers a new promise

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-27 01:48

To the surprise of none of us here. Apparently the Boring Co is already shafting contractors in Nashville. Love when "major" companies refuse to pay family businesses. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1p7ppdi/crews_walk_out_on_nashville_tunnel_claiming/

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-27 03:44

It's weird because what other auto manufacturer is seeing a spike like this in their BEV sales there?  It's only Tesla.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-27 05:14

Tomorrow's Elonversary: *"Millions of people needed for Mars colony, so 80k+ would just be the number moving to Mars per year"* \- 11/27/2012

henrik_se 2025-11-27 07:35

> the company has just been sliding since then Oh, but they released their halo model, the cybertruck! It's a massive success!

PortoFlip 2025-11-27 08:09

Total BEV sales in November is already 50% up compared to last year with a few days left.

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-27 12:41

And like 55% of the increase is in Teslas. Not normal.

Terrible-Mall-4766 2025-11-27 14:19

Talked to my dad about Tesla recently. He is a cultist and i wanted to understand why. I asked whether he paid actual money for FSD (yes), whether he ever got FSD (no), whether he thinks he will ever get FSD (no) and whether that could technically be called Tesla scamming him (yes). He has surprisingly little illusions on that end. Yet, despite all that, he simply doesnt care and still chooses to believe that Tesla is the greatest company that has ever graced this earth. Why, you ask? Simple: His Tesla stock is up. As long as the stock is up, nothing else matters. The stock is the product. Realistically, we all knew that anyway, but it was interesting to see that on some subconscious level even the cultists know that.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-27 14:25

Reading pro-Tesla boards, its obvious the vast majority of "tesla-bulls" have figured out the FSD is bullshit and Musk is an obvious liar. Now they're just playing a game of chicken with other investors. However - this "stonk go up" sentiment is getting outdated. The stonk price is at the same level it was 4 years ago.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-27 14:34

I know a contractor who did work for SpaceX. One day, he got an early morning call from a furious Musk. Why would the head of the company personally call a sub to yell at him? The work involved cranes, and the day prior the crew had stopped work due to high winds. In the world of cranes, its just what you do - the rules and capabilities are clear and easily understood...really some very simple *First Principles Physics* is at the root of it. But Musk wanted him to drive on, and make lifts in the high winds - he absolutely did not give a shit, and he could not understand that workers with decades of experience under their belt would immediately identify the recklessness of it and lose confidence in all their management. He no longer contracts to SpaceX - I'm not sure which side broke it off.

OrdinaryPollution339 2025-11-27 16:28

The video on YouTube of dozens of Starships flying in close formation to Mars is peak comedy.

PortoFlip 2025-11-27 22:39

VW is 50% up this month so far. And remember while other manufacturers may be production constrained because of increased European sales, Tesla has lots of excess capacity and lots of cars to fill the EV demand before the Norwegian $5000 incentive runs out in 4 weeks. Several articles about how dealers struggle with too low inventory in face of the sudden increase in demand.

Emotional_Goal9525 2025-11-28 01:23

It is also only profit if you sell the top.

lovely_sombrero 2025-11-28 02:02

So he is still HODL-ing? Does he have any plans to sell?

Street-Badger 2025-11-28 08:41

‘He was eaten by a cheetah, not a lion’

TheDirtyOnion 2025-11-28 11:00

In the US they were down something like 26% YoY in October, but that was after being up like 18% in September (which is a month they historically do way more volume in). The company will not allow sales to drop anything close to 50% - if they need to they will just drop pricing as it is better to drop margins rather than have unused production. You are completely overstating how much their sales are down.

TheDirtyOnion 2025-11-28 11:06

Does anyone know what is driving the huge spike in sales in Norway this quarter? Over the past 20 days the company has registered 5,723 deliveries there. By comparison, in all of Q4 last year they only did 6,595 (a figure they are on track to pass before we even hit December this year). Do we know if these represent fleet sales? Or has Tesla otherwise massively cut prices to spur this kind of demand? The figures are so out of line with any other quarter ever in Norway there must be something new happening.

poissonous 2025-11-28 11:36

VAT increase in 2026. Price goes up by about 5k USD. Edit: Consumers expect the price to increase by 5k, rather. Last time they increased VAT, Tesla actually dumped the price of model Y by almost 10k.

PortoFlip 2025-11-28 11:39

It is discussed further down in this thread. Short version. October 15th the state budget was announced and surprisingly $5000 in BEV incentives is to be removed at the end of 2025. This has led to an extreme surge in demand and while other manufacturers are struggling to meet it, Tesla has loads of excess inventory.

Trades46 2025-11-28 11:47

Pretty much that. Any pro-Tesla fanboys usual justification of why the brand is great usually comes down to "stock price bro". The symbol is a massive bubble that even exceeds the current Ai hype.

Tind_L_Laylor 2025-11-28 12:46

They think they're in on the scam. They haven't realized yet they're the scam's victims. Their only way to truly be part of the scam is to sell now, but they still believe the stock price will somehow rise 10000%, not realizing that this cannot happen without a whole lot of very rich and very stupid people willing to *buy* the stock from them at an insane price. That won't happen. Not to mention that if Tesla's current stock price already reflects Tesla's *future* rather than Tesla's *present*, then there's no reason for the price to jump if Elon's lies suddenly and magically become true. Sell now when it's at an all time high, send Elon a thank you note with some of your nudes, and move on with your life.

LoveAlbertMarie 2025-11-28 13:51

Stupid governement signaling full VAT on EVs. So now we can start buying diesel cars again…

Terrible-Mall-4766 2025-11-28 17:27

Nah, he has zero plans to sell. Actually, he is constantly buying more (monthly, automated)... The thing is, even though the stock isnt all that impressive if you look at 2022+ and his constant position inreases are watering down his winnings, he bought the first batches a couple years back at <20 dollars. So "big green number" still appears immutable for now. He did get slightly nervous at the April drop to 240 though. I assume he will panic-sell once the losses from his newer stocks outweigh winnings from his older stocks.

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-11-28 19:46

Maybe Tesla was giving away lutefisk with each Model Y purchase.

Street-Badger 2025-11-28 21:38

So similar to the US q3 sales spike, this is a death knell dressed up as a windfall.

poissonous 2025-11-28 22:40

Yes. But in 2027 they are removing the rest of the VAT subsidy, adding another 7.5k in VAT, so I guess there might be a similar effect next 4Q.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-29 04:38

Newspaper headline from 8 years ago tomorrow: "The Boring Company will compete to fund, build & operate a high-speed Loop connecting Chicago O’Hare Airport to downtown"

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-29 05:41

So....the project here in Nashville, BNA Airport to downtown, is just a copy and paste promise? Well I would have never guessed that Musk would use an unoriginal idea. I figured the world's greatest innovator never used the same ~~grift~~ idea twice.

habfranco 2025-11-29 14:03

I was wondering what was causing that (relative) surge in registration here: [https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL\_DAILY/QoQ-Chart](https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart) It's actually all coming from norway, they have their EV tax credits expiring: [https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/NO/QoQ-Chart](https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/NO/QoQ-Chart) Funny thing is that it's actually this elon-fan-club post that made me realize it \^\^: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1p9bi4t/giga\_berlin\_ramps\_to\_two\_shifts\_as\_model\_y\_demand/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1p9bi4t/giga_berlin_ramps_to_two_shifts_as_model_y_demand/)

Sir_Isaac_Tootin 2025-11-29 15:20

Vehicle sales don't matter. Tesla is an AI company. (But yes, this has been discussed here over the last couple weeks.)

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-29 15:56

> used the same ~~grift~~ idea twice. Just twice? Never underestimate the Technoking: *"Just received verbal govt approval for The Boring Company to build an underground NY-Phil-Balt-DC Hyperloop. NY-DC in 29 mins."* *"The Boring Company has made technical progress much faster than expected and has decided to make its first tunnel in Los Angeles an operational one, hence Dugout Loop!"*

FrogmanKouki 2025-11-29 20:49

Unfortunately they've actually put a hole in the ground in Nashville. I'm still hopeful the project grinds to a halt.

lovely_sombrero 2025-11-29 23:51

Yea, there was a huge spike from Norway. Apparently, the decision to phaseout the EV subsidy was quite sudden.

Lacrewpandora 2025-11-30 05:48

Elonversary: Headline from 11/30/2018: *"NASA chief tells Elon Musk to stop drinking and smoking pot"* In possibly related news, and utterance from Technoking the same day: *"Your Tesla can function as a boat for brief periods of time"*

Zorkmid123 2025-11-30 17:20

I remember this. The government ended up giving SpaceX $5 million for “a work place cultural review” after this. Except the only known cultural problem was the CEO smoking pot on Rogan’s show when he wasn’t supposed to, and they got paid $5 million for it.

totpot 2025-12-01 03:05

Forgot this anecdote from the guy-whose-rockets-keep-blowing-up-for-the-same-reason's biography >"Unless a sensor is absolutely needed to start an engine or safely stop an engine before it explodes, it must be deleted," he wrote in an email to SpaceX engineers. "Going forward, anyone who puts a sensor (or any-thing) on the engine that isn't obviously critical will be asked to leave."

FrogmanKouki 2025-12-01 05:50

Well you see they have to blow them up for more data, unfortunately they don't have enough sensors to collect the appropriate data. Catch 22

Large-Example1665 2025-12-01 10:54

Brockway, Ogdenville, and North Haverbrook projects are full steam ahead.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 14:03

"...or safely stop an engine before it explodes" Why would they do that, and miss out on all the fragments of Data^(tm)?

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-01 21:10

> "Going forward, anyone who puts a sensor (or any-thing) on the engine that isn't obviously critical will be asked to leave." It's just such a childish POV. Like a "take your kid to work" view of how anything works.

mrbuttsavage 2025-12-01 21:11

Weed is the least of his problems these days. More weed might actually help him.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-01 21:27

I was thining about that the other day. If you've ever worked in a govt job that requires testing, its fairly well known that every random drug test includes screening for Pot and 1 other random drug. I have no idea if this is actually true, but its what we all think we know. So, the lesson learned is: Dump the weed and go for the hard stuff!...which seemingly is exactly what the Ketamin Kid did.

Lacrewpandora 2025-12-24 13:56

11 year Elonversary: *"Roadster upgrade will enable non-stop travel from LA to SF -- almost 400 mile range. Details tmrw. Merry Christmas!"* \- Captain Conman, Dec 24, 2014 Context is key here. These are the OG Roadsters. A week prior to this proclamation, the King of Grift unveiled the totally real and definitely not just a stunt to bilk the ZEV progrm out of billions: BATTERY SWAP. But it was only for the Model S. This was one of the early signs that caused early adopter Elongelicals to ask: "Hey, what about me? I bought a Roadster...Technoking, you won't forget about me, will you?" So with this statement, the father soothed his flock, assuring them that they could could taste the nectar of extended range...and Elon would never abandon them. Less than 3 yeas later he would complete the rug pull and announce the 600 mile, gazillion mile per hour, totally real flying Roadster 2.0, and symbolize how disposable the OG Roadsters are by hurling one into space. So we've got a 3fer...Fake battery swap leads to fake Roadster range upgrade and culminates in fake flying Roadster. Merry Griftmas! and Happy New Con!

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