Tesla is a car company

I've done some market analysis on home humanoid robots and I believe the target price is sub-$10k for them to make any sense. The features they would need at that price point make it a dubious proposition.

Spoiler alert. The average American can't even scrape together $400 for an emergency. I'm sure Elmo will offer a great financing plan though. And hey! If it misses a payment, it'll repo itself by walking back to the factory. AMAZING!!! /s

Barely a car company. Meme company maybe. Before the age of the internet and social media they would have long since gone bankrupt.

Shh ... stans don't need your "logic"

Supposedly the play is to sell FSD as a platform to other. car makers. I don’t think it’s going to work. But that’s the plan.

Did you see that Optimus going to the kitchen to get Marc Benioff a Coke? I ain’t paying $500 for that thing.

Lol it wasn't even going to get him a coke - it was going to walk with him to the kitchen so that he could check if there is a coke there himself.

Eh? I hadn't heard that ... That's what companies like MobilEye are doing.

Damn I can see that happening.

That’s brand new to me. There is literally nothing Tesla has done that would even hint at this.

Plus, he is at least 10 years behind Boston Dynamics.

He’ll be behind the chinese and will have to price accordingly. Besides some ridiculous gov contract, he has 3y left to do that

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-early-discussions-license-full-self-driving-major-automaker/ https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/tesla-earnings-stock-q4-results-sales-ev-robotaxi-incentives/card/tesla-in-talks-to-license-fsd-to-other-car-makers-17naw8wIysbVH1Q8LyFy

I dont think tesla could beat china at robots even if this were a product Of course they're a car company The one thing I like is that they have the charging network, that could be a good investment if they grew it - I feel like that will get cannibalized away once more vehicles are on the road too

Yes but, with everyone unemployed because of AI and Robots and everyone collecting money from the free money machine thanks to AI and Robots, they'll pay for themselves.  Everybody wins because everybody wins.

People would pay a lot for humanoid robots if they could do everything a human servant can. But they can't.

The difference between Tesla and BD is Musk is betting he has enough delusional fanboys willing to shell out $35k to have another person teleoperate a robot in their home so they can get the training data.

The sad part is that he probably has enough dipshit fanboys, I mean, look at the Cybertruck.

Somehow that situation has never crossed my mind before. Fuck THAT. It would take Musk paying me 1 or 2k a day to do something as ridiculous as that.

Actually they can sell FSD subscriptions without selling new cars. I think only 12% of existing Teslas have FSD, so if somehow it made leaps and bounds and was suddenly doing everything they've promised over the past decade there's always the 88% of existing Teslas that don't have it whom they could sell it to. It's never going to happen, but in theory it could.

I can’t imagine factories ordering them for specialized tasks that require thinking and occasionally improvisation. Then they’ll need IT and maintenance support staff for $50-80k apiece.

10 years is being kind, a few employers ago I designed some components for the original dog prototype.

I agree, Tesla is a joke in this department. Plus, based on Musk BS, and my personal feelings and dealings with Tesla, the market to have a Musk product in your home is getting smaller every day.

Pretty sure it wasn’t going to be the type of coke he was looking for anyway.

That is where the money would be, but he can’t get camera only to work in his cars that were designed for it. No one else is going to go with his design when Waymo has a better prototype. Hell Waymo has already gone into design with at least one manufacturer. There won’t be a market by the time Tesla gets it right.

It’s not really a car company either, more of a stock manipulation machine.

If you like Full Self Driving (Just Kidding), you’ll love, Optimus Prime. While you are sleeping. Optimus Prime will make you money by knocking over liquor stores.

I have many times asked for someone, anyone, to show me a valid business case for humanoid robots. Market analysis production analysis pricing analysis, all the things that any normal business does to justify jumping into a new business, they usually gets disclosed to investors at some point to justify the investment. It appears not to exist anywhere

I did my own legwork, so it's possible. I can't share my analysis outright because of the company I work for, but if you decide to go down that path, let me know if you can make the Tesla model work

I don't mind the market assigning some value to high risk - high reward R&D projects. My problem is investors massively underestimating the risk and overestimating the size and certainty of the reward if it does hit.

Chinese robots will dominate, China has more robots on production than any country

What about as an **energy** company since its main mission is “**Accelerating** the World's **Transition** to **Sustainable Energy**” it just happens that in order to do so it has to go into every industry it has including - personal vehicle production and charging, commercial vehicle production and charging: to reduce emissions via **transitioning** to **sustainable energy** sources - robo taxis and FSD: reduce people's reliance on having individual vehicles thus reducing emissions - solar and battery storage: displace FF energy/reduce FF demand thus more **sustainable**

Appliances, mediocre at best

I would have no problem with pricing TSLA like an energy company. A reasonable PE ratio for an energy company would be around 17.

They wanna solve FSD just with cameras and Software. If they could do that, then they could sell it to other companies.

According to the Tesla master plan part IV their mission is now "accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable abundance." https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-4.pdf

I think they think they will sell FSD licenses to all the other car companies. (This will never happen unless Elon buys another car company and makes them)

Making stuff up isn’t fair game btw

> And hey! If it misses a payment, it'll repo itself by walking back to the factory. With armfuls of your stuff.

I am "arguing" 3 days now, with FSD fan boys and can't get through to them with a fact (easily verifiable) that practically any new car in EU is FSD capable if regulators let it be. Level 2 driving assists are mendatory across the market, for 12k Dacia or 100k BMW. But they are still convinced FSD is THE gift from god and no other company is able to replicate it. Honestly? I can see those yo-yos buying robots and posting proud videos of them taking Roomba jobs. ;)

>its main mission ~~is~~ was A company that wants to (help?) save the world is now powering its own data centers with (illegal?) gas generators.

Musk’s been tweeting about this since 2023

Also imagine the noise living as downstairs neighbor to a terminator.

Even better: Tesla is a meme stock company. Tesla's product is to sell stock backed by Musk tweets, with a side job of making cars.

In fifty years this might be achievable.

The Cybertruck worked out fine. So will FSD and Optimus. Trust the process. /s

Imagine there will be a robot with ads to reduce the cost so it tells you about all the latest products whilst it's giving you an impact driver handy j.

Oh ok. There is still literally nothing Tesla has done that would even hint at this

Look at their earnings calls. - 90%+ car sales. - 5+ for energy  - <5% others  ... - None is AI - None is robots

Yes, shrinking car sales certainly isn't beneficial to FSD. But, to be fair, only 12% of Tesla owners have FSD. Theoretically, there's room for growth within that pool. Whether it will ever happen is another thing.

Let's do math https://telegrafi.com/en/Optimus-robot-heading-for-mass-production--Tesla-orders-%24685-million-in-parts/ 685.000.000/180.000 units = 3.805. Taxes and profits. Make it 5k. The average person doesn't pay 5k for anything but a car. Most countries don't have income to support this in a lifetime.

And a terrible one at that

They’re not going to be a car company going forward. Yet they’re making “Robotaxi’s” and Cybercab’s. lol.

I'd pay that if dishwashers, washing machines, and robovacs didn't exist, but they do. I can bribe my kids into helping for relatively little and it teaches them valuable skills.

Who the fuck is going to want to let go completely of any privacy in your home for a robot with eyes and ears and a direct connection to a right wing fascist controlled company? Not gonna happen. Their cars sales are in serious decline because of this behavior as well. This company is a dead man walking.

I don’t think Optimus is going to work, but have you heard of Alexa? It amazes me that people put those in their homes (or google’s stuff).

Wink wink.

Talk about an efficient repo lol

It amazes me how people are afraid of Smart Speakers, but carry a phone with good microphones around all day.

The other thing that kills their FSD hopes is that no manufacturer is going to take on the tech whilst it is under so many criminal and civil investigations that are not going away any time soon. They've been trying to flog it for years with no takers whatsoever. So yeah they need to sell cars to sell FSD.

The cybertruck is the biggest disaster in the modern auto era. It will lose billions.

Before social media the CEO wouldn't have been able to thoroughly trash a super popular brand

He's been talking about licensing it long before 2023. There are just no takers nor will there be with so many lawsuits hanging over them and a brand that is in the bin.

Semi, roadster 2, boring co

What % of Telsa owners have the most recent tech hardware?

It’s why I carry an iPhone. Privacy is important.

Yeah, I mean look at Grokipedia for example, there's no way I'm letting a Musk robot into my home.

A lot of people complained about the lack of details of what appeared to be a plan written by Grok.  Musk said he would add more specifics but I haven't heard anything

He wouldn't have been able to hype it to meme levels either.

Because Felon's business portfolio in itself is quite limited to out-of-touch-with-reality markets. Other than the EV car business he rolled out during EV boom and forming his cult of fanboys, everything else Felon has done is pretty much either unpractical currently. Sending people to Mars? Dude there's a whole lot of markets left to be captured here on Earth!!! I could understand if it was the Japanese-type space ambition of extracting resources from space, but dude what's with this BS of sending ppl to Mars? And these aren't your ordinary salaryman folks, they are your club of stupid billionaires and millionaires who are ready to pour money into anything that looks fancy at the first sight. I honestly don't find any practical business/industrial value in making humanoid robots and spreading the false anxiety of "Robots will takeover human jobs".

Doesn't matter anyways. Most chinese humanoid robots out there are being used for entertainment purposes. It won't be popular in industrial market ever where single-purpose efficient robotic components are used. If anything, Felon will probably ship his outdated humanoid robot technology towards sex doll market, and will see getting out-competed by Chinese sex toy manufacturers again lol.

Both financial-wise and economy-wise its better to simply hire a worker (who will pay taxes, and contribute to consumption without requiring the extra energy cost, policy insurance and technical maintenance (probably another way for Felon to scam people and make money out of it) required for Optimus).

The only ones who would pay for humanoid robots to hire them as "maids" would be Felon fanboys and Felon's club of spoiled rich millionaires and billionaires who are finding a sexdoll to relieve their pedo urges as their old wife (if they haven't already divorced yet) doesn't show them. Introducing these sex dolls would be a great way to reduce the number of sugar-daddies in the market lol.

Because a lot of average ordinary people don't have a basic sense of privacy, potential threats that can come from a product, and the possibility of spying. A lot of Alexa buyers are simply amazed at the "Oh look, it can respond to my questions" which is basically an embedded mix of sound and simple web searching techniques.

Optimus "subscription" is to pay the slave wages of a 14-year-old in India to teleoperate

>Most countries don't have income to support this in a lifetime This. Most tech-bros (no hate to tech bros, i am a coder myself) tend to think from the "American consumer" perspective when developing a product and hence fall out of touch with reality that there are huge markets outside of America where price is a "major" deciding factor instead of "quality". In price-sensitive countries with huge populations like China and India, low-cost with an average quality wins over high-quality high-price. And almost NO Asian country ever buys things for "Lets Try this NEW innovative thing out". No one's going to pay a fucking 5K to buy something useless as this. People are barely keeping up with the rising prices these days, and yet these morons (FELON) expect people to get fooled by these shit products.

Tech wise, no argument. Manufacturing scale wise I would give the edge to Tesla. They have the capital and scale to cut cost on a product through manufacturing capability. They don’t have to come up with the great tech…kinda like how Elon didn’t start Tesla… they just have to execute the scale and manufacturing part. Not a fan of Musk just pointing out the hard part is scaling production capacity and Tesla has proven they can do that.

Just a scam company, it has become a place for investors to gain quick cash through media hypes and cut off the company as soon as possible.

The unspoken but assumed product from the character of all involved is “fan boys wanting sex robots”.

While also putting your own home on fire.

Yeah, but there’s an important clarification here: this isn’t **Tesla** doing it, it’s **xAI**, Elon Musk’s separate AI company. Still doesn’t look great, but the distinction matters.

If only it worked...

Roombas are cheap and don't (?) listen/record/report what you say

Tesla does make most of its money from cars today, but the reason its P/E is 270 while CATL is 26, BYD is 22, and Panasonic is 13 isn’t because people think it’s a “car company.” The market prices in **optionality**, the idea that Tesla isn’t just selling cars, but building a platform that could generate future high-margin revenue: - A growing global fleet that can generate recurring FSD subscription revenue (not just one-time sales). - Mobility services (robotaxi or even semi-autonomous ride-hailing) that behave more like software + operations than car manufacturing. - Energy storage and manufacturing automation, which scale differently than auto margins. You don’t have to believe any of these will deliver. But these **future bets**, not current car sales, are why the market gives Tesla a much higher P/E than other EV or energy companies.

They've been trying and failing to do that for years already. Nobody is licensing an inferior product that is under countless civil and criminal prosecutions and investigations.

It certainly would have been different but all of the world's media platformed him regularly and uncritically as a near god. Absent social media he maybe would have had an even greater presence in the concentrated media that existed.

I looked up “Theory” with the USGS. There is no such place, which explains why all of the things that work in Theory never work in real life.

If Tesla made a robot that could score people actual cocaine, that might actually be useful...

Don't worry. The advertising will cover it.

If I can sniff coke off their robot stripper ass, I might get one.

I never understood the whole home humanoid thing. Smart appliances make much more sense.

That’s a good point. If there is a market for robot maids, roomba should be a trillion dollar company now

It all centers around 2 things: 1) most things in the world are sized for human engagement, 2) opposable thumbs and twisty wrists allow for dexterity of motion for using human tools.

Dominate everywhere except the US and W Europe, with 100% tariffs on all China tech.

Why even call it the cyber **truck** it isn't a truck because one of the hallmarks of a truck is the ability to tow which at its advertised towing capacity it **can not** safely do without the bumper being ripped off If anyone reading this hasn't seen the video watch Jerry rig everything. He's got an excellent video that tests the towing capacity.

Are they even that What new car or realky any product has Tesla actually delivered. Even the CyberTruck is not close to what was promised. The batteries, a mistake. CyberSemii? There are companies delivering Electric semis already and real customers are buying them. Cybercab, two others companies have driverless versions in the roads, Tesla has a ride share program. SFSD. Where is it not level 2 and restricted. The new model Y did not move the needle For real name one promises from Tesla that actually was built.

Just because Tesla is a bad company doesn’t mean it’s not a car company. The recent cheaper car models may not sell well, but it’s clearly a desperate move that only a car company would do.

Show me one car company with no new models

Just look at Cybertruck. They launched the vehicle without FSD, and it took months for them to add FSD to it. And that was Tesla themselves for their own vehicle that finally had a new chassi type that wasn't just reused. Indicates it'd be a major damn headache for another manufacture to implement it.

1. Tesla is definitely a car company. But it’s not _just_ a car company. 2. The solar panel’s going up on a family member’s house are quite real 3. The utility scale energy sites Tesla’s built in multiple countries are quite real 4. Optimus is real, just not production ready yet. And Tesla’s not targeting pure retail (that’s Figure, and Neo, and Unitree) Tesla’s going after factory work. Financially, for a business, replacing a blue-collar worker at a menial job for 50k is like free gold. Saying it’s not real, when the dang bodies were good enough to serve drinks (teleoperated or not) is f***ing impressive. Not saying Tesla’s going to succeed or whatever. I’m just saying your headline is not even close to the full picture, and the post body is kinda weak sauce. /shrug.

You can buy a better 'robot' than Optimus from China for $6k.

But the US and W Europe still depend entirely on China's supply chain

It's just not possible. You can't compete with a billion years of evolution.

Do you not understand how Alexa works?

He did only one great service: starlink, the rest is bullshit or lagging behind competition.

The best way to open the eye of some people (not the one too deep in the cult) is to show them youtube video of people comparing for instance Zeeker FSD to Tesla FSD on the same roads. Normally that should manage the Tesla FSD is 10y ahead argument.

But people pricing Tesla at incredible p/e seem to ignore that competition is here and sometimes ahead of Tesla. They robotaxi is years behind waymo, and after just 2 month in Austin we are already at 7 crashes with safety drivers (and just 15 cars). FSD is already present on cars from Chinese manufacturer, Optimus is nothing new.

I’m sure at some point someone will have robots working in meth labs making crystal meth.

If you think it’s just a maid, then idk what to say… I’ll certainly scrape together $35k for a forever thereafter “free” employee (Though I’m not sure where you got that particular number from, since their target price seems to be somewhat lower than that)

I rented BYD Sealion this summer. I frequently rented Teslas in the past, so I can somewhat objectively compare. Tesla? Archaic and outdated by today's standards. But US does not get anything competitive on the car market (old Daimler stuff, and rebadged Stellantis crap), so it is hard to explain to them how much world has evolved in past 10-15 years. But soon they will realize (or not) that they are actually the "3rd world" country. Oh well. ;)

Difference is, Tesla can raise billions on the markets given its current valuation.

\> I’d be surprised if the average American can scrape together $35k for a maid. If/when they ever come out with one of their dysfunctional robot products, you know damn well it won't sell for the price originally told to the public. If conman Felon says $35k, you know it will be at least $100k and won't work worth a damn just like Full Reckless Driving.

The reports I've seen say it's closer to 20 years but it doesn't matter. TSLA isn't about robots, cars or even making products. It's smoke and mirrors to keep the stock bubble pumping.

It would be extremely surprising if Tesla, the one who struggled to launch unsupervised FSD for a decade now, somehow can achieve autonomy in a completely new venture.

Just what every home needs, another open mic and camera sending personal data back.

Cybertoasters really weren't for fanboys so much as the usual pretentious wankers that need trophies to show off their money.

The only capital they really have is an inflated stock price. If they spend it, that's less for themselves.

For anyone even remotely thinking about having a autonomous robot living with you, read Michael Crichton's novel "The Terminal Man", or watch the movies "I, Robot" and "Saturn 5". NO FUCKING WAY

They sell energy, they have cybercab ramping, they have semi ramping, they have Optimus on the near horizon. Saying all of these are not perfect and on the floor for sale today is not a deterrent from people saying they want to invest in them early, to be part of where it is going. It is NOT just a car company, it is a physical AI company.

No, it’s a car company. Please read what I wrote again.

Omnibot 2000 from the 80s is better than Optimus.

Tell me is it cheaper to produce a few options/add-on of a few (5 for Tesla (S, 3, X, Y, Cybertruck)) models or hundreds of options/add-on of a few dozen models(Toyota, 70+), if producing the same amount of cars Or think how much it cost to tool a production line to produce different models on each line vs a production line that can be copy and paste without charging much

Tesla is said to relaunch/demo its next generation roadsters April 1st 2026 (don't know if it's April fools or real) and take about 12-18 months to production in its 2025 annual shareholder meeting at about 2:13:30 (2 hours 13 minutes 30 seconds) into the meeting for the following 1 minute 30 seconds

- Build a sports car(the first gen roadster(2012)) - Use that money to build an affordable car(Tesla model S/X) - Use that money to build an even more affordable car(Tesla model 3/Y) - While doing the above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options Basically the Tesla Master Plan Part 1 In q4 2024 Tesla average COGS(how much it cost to make) per car is below USD$35,000

Making their own taxis(Robotaxi/Cybercab(under $30,000 per vehicle)) is cheaper than buying other OEM and add autonomous hardware(Waymo ($150,000-$200,000 per vehicle))

- ~75.47% for automotive revenue - ~12.15% for energy generation and storage - ~12.36% for service and other FSD could be accounted for either in automotive or other (IDK) https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2025-Update.pdf page 23

https://youtu.be/0xumyEf-WRI?si=upJ6NpcFuUsqBi1p Explain this

Explain what? That none of these systems are able to operate without oversight? That Telsa crashed in the road work like the others? That the 15 robotaxi in Austin experienced 7 crashes in 2 months with a safety drivers?

That gives them too much credit, it's more of a Ponzi scheme and I'm surprised the whole thing hasn't collapsed.

I did, multiple times. Check who the author is. Not ADAC, NTSB, NCAP, IIFHH, but TikTok's parent news outlet Byte Dance. It's not a test by any verifiable or repeatable standards, just a click bait.