Tesla’s $800 Billion Gamble: 70% of Its Value Rests on Unfinished AI Dreams

The unfinished AI dreams will eventually finish Tesla.

AI dreams as opposed to taxi dreams. Or robot dreams? Or FSD dreams? Aside from a few cars, Tesler is mostly just dreams, is it not?

70%? That's conservative.

Yeah, right? More realistically only about 10% can be justified.

Even 10% is too much, they lose market share while making a loss per car sold.

It’s more dreams than BYD

If Tesla is so dependent on AI, then why is the CEO of Tesla allowed to build his own AI company outside of Tesla?

Tesla should pitch and model itself as an energy company, not only to residential customers but also to big business. Sell all-in-one solutions and create a walled garden. They were so close, then someone got mad at some divers saving Thai children.

All of TSLA’s value rest on unfinished dreams Robotaxi, FSD, now AI

Tesla is more delusion than dreams.

And how are these dreams not crushed by Xpeng's humanoid robot. Tesla bulls are not dreaming they are delusional.

Not unrealized, unattainable.

Grifters gonna grift

Frankly they should have a larger lineup. Some boxier SUVs would sell well.

Good, fuck em! There’s no way this house of cards keeps standing.

Absolutely if Tesla was valued as a car company based on the cars it actually sells say similarly to Volkswagen their PE ratio would be 6 compared to its ~300 currrntly that would imply that 98% of tesla's value is from not car sales.

3,3 % would put Tesla at a PE ratio of 10 … that could still be considered conservative.

More like 99% rests on the bullshit and lies of one sad little man.

Logic? In this economy? Get out of here you heretic!

TSLA investors incorrectly believe that what's good for Elon is good for TSLA. Elon runs his companies to maximize his own profits, not necessarily Tesla's.

That‘s a really interesting part. TSLA is valued as if xAI is part of it. But actually, xAI will probably funnel money out of TSLA for nothing in return.

And 1000% relies on robots. And another thousand relies on self driving cars.

There is no walled garden for giant batteries.

There is speculation that he’s trying to merge all the companies together and to go private eventually.

It’s nightmares, not dreams.

Just wait for the CyberSUV. It will look like a pile of refrigerator boxes

Tesla and its investors comprise the doomed cult of Elmo and his half - baked dreams.

Nothing will sell well in Europe after that “Roman salute” of Elon’s. Seriously people fucking hate him and his businesses here. China has better, more affordable Chinese options. It’s all smoke and mirrors at this point… has been for a while

Yeah can you run the math for me? Today he would need to scratch 1.3t$ together to take it private. He would rather squeeze every single penny and tech out of TSLA and then dump it to 10% of its value while pumping value in xAI. That‘s what I don‘t get.

I wouldn’t bet Musk. He made me a lot of money but I have reduced my position over the years.

That’ll work <snort>

If they beat the Rivian R2 to the market with a similarly styled vehicle it would sell better than the Model Y imo. I'm not sure why they insist on selling coupe SUV like vehicles, the market would prefer a more rugged and practical SUV's. Yes I know it might reduce range by 5-10 miles, but I still think the market would prefer it.

xAI will run out of money or it will be to expensive to raise money, then it will be merged with Tesla at a crazy valuation. So he gets a larger share in Tesla. Tesla going private doesn't make sense, because he wouldn't play the market cap for Tesla

What’s wild is how consistent this pattern has been, every few years, Tesla pivots the narrative just enough to re-anchor valuation around “what’s next.” The recent shareholder vote only reinforced that. It’s not just a pay plan; it’s a confidence test. Musk knows belief is Tesla’s strongest currency.

It’s the real life manifestation of “The Emperor’s New Clothes” and Tulip-investing greed. Fascinating to watch from the sidelines.

Batteries are a commodity. Oddly AI may generate some demand for batteries as giant data centers pop up everywhere, so Tesla could get a boost from that...but putting cells in a box is being done by lots of different companies - names like BYD, Panasonic, CATL, LG (some of these companies actually supply TSLA with its cells as well). BYD has contracts in place that will leapfrog it over Tesla to the leader's spot in installed storage, and I assume will leave them in their rear view mirror.

Thanks, yes that makes more sense. Realistically, that will tank the TSLA stock though.

The problem is, the next big leap in AI could come from anywhere, not just whoever throws the most money at it. They would be better off licensing the best tech than trying to compete, especially since they're saddled with Musk's weirdness.

I think private financiers will make it happen I don’t need to walk through the math when people keep giving him more money to produce less and less results.

the con in a con game is 'confidence'

Yeah but the money is coming from an army of retailers, market maker algos and Musks own leveraged bets and some speculators, isn‘t it? Smart / institutional money should be aware that xAI / TSLA are mainly hot air I would expect.

Napoleon had a winning streak 1800 - 1811 and Hitler 1933 - 1940. with great personal success like that comes great hubris, the need gamble it all to surpass one's success ^momentum ^is ^not ^destiny

I think you underestimate how much tech has buddies up with the likes of JP Morgan chase, the saudis, etc etc etc

It wouldn’t upset me that Musk failed and I would lose my investment. My total return would be over 100%.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs/ shows BMW and Mercedes have 2.4M unit sales (30% more than TSLA). Giving Elon their combined market caps is still only $120B, almost a rounding error on TSLA's market cap.

I was a big believer in his "50% CAGR for the foreseeable future" BS from earlier this decade, but I am not now. Clearly Tesla's business model can't really scale beyond what it is without either a franchise system or a pivot to company-owned cars. I don't know how to value FSD, it could be a big win, or not. The problem with it being a valuation driver is that FSD has to be just hard enough that others' can't copy it, but not too hard that even Elon's immense genius can't crack it. Optimus is a joke tho.

Yes all companies have their failures. Musk cyber truck was a disaster. I sold half of position in January 2022. I plan on selling another 50% in January 2026. I will buy when it falls to $250.

I wonder how many tesla bulls / fanbois also believe there's an AI bubble, just everywhere but at tesla. And see no contradiction in their opinions because elon is magic.

because he controls the board and the majority of stockholders still believe everything he tells them. flying car by next year!

Never mind the CEO being an owner of a competing AI company, this’ll work out FANTASTIC.

Tesla is not a leader in installed Storage globally. They are practically non-existant in this Market outside the US.

He’s got ulterior motives ! Who knows what they are but bullshit is at the top of the list.

Still high for a car maker that will soon lose money

rookie numbers. I would say almost 90% is pipedream and unprovel business models

Tesla is a crash waiting to happen.

Eventually Tesla shares price will come crashing down. And either some hedge fund or other car maker will buy it out. Or maybe it will recover and the rest of us can buy into it. But I think destruction by a capital / hedge fund is most likely. But Tesla has potential still I think. They are just hamstrung by ELON and the board and shareholders who I don’t understand for a second

BYD is an acronym for Bury Your Dream (Elmo)

Europe has a ton of Chinese SUV. The only thing Teslas have that is not available with competition are fart cushion. Not sure it's worth the premium.

I think it depends on how its counted. Just grid scale, Tesla isn't a leader...but most tallies include all the consumer power walls and storage at Tesla's own supercharger stations - when counted that way, TSLA comes out on top...by when BYD fulfills its Saudi contracts, they'll take the overall spot, no matter how its counted.

Nobody outside the US uses Power Wall. There are much better and cheaper alternatives.

Yes that xpeng robot looks more advanced and cheaper than Optimus

Are their margins negative? I know they have steadily been lowering but I thought they were still a bit positive. Maybe that's with the Carbon Credit sales

A larger lineup would cannibalized their existing line-up's economy of scale. It makes the current line-up even less efficient.

Tesla bulls are in denial that there is any competition. Be it EVs, robots, self driving... whatever. They just don't care that other companies already do these things better.

It would be so interesting to see Elon run out of money because he stopped paying attention to cars and played King of America instead.

They already know. They’re just pumping till they shift all the risk to retail. OpenAI is eying for a Federal Government bailout and/or an IPO where all the current investors get to cash out. Privatise the gains, federalise the risk.

‘America the Greatest’. No need to look outside. Outside has better? Make it illegal for that here.

I’m so tired of this company’s grift. It needs to die already.

95% of its value is based in science fiction. The other 5% is dwindling away.

It is called Resource tunneling. Musk (and directors) are getting sued for exactly this by major institutional shareholders no less. Piercing the corporate veil no less. It is a bit on the low down as Tesla does not want this well know. Nor do the shareholders. It bigger than this. Musk threatened to cancel the AI program if he did no get a big paycheck. (This is a big part of the lawsuit) Then he started his own Xai company. Then he sold the shitty twitter purchase to Xai. Now he is suggesting Tesla needs AI and he has it. With a bloated Twitter attached to it. And the price being thrown around? 200 billion.

And none of them have any realistic value.

Panasonic owns the battery technology. It is not even a Tesla thing. There are much much bigger energy companies with far more experience. Tesla is a joke in this industry and has zero edge.

Powerwall is an incredible expensive option and not even close to being a big part of their company. Is kind of a joke of a product by any economical terms. Is a good UPS though for short power outages.

He personally made a lot of money. That is selling lies. How does that help anyone else?

the entire market rests on unfinished AI dreams

Ya there were lots that made money if they bought before 2020. But pretty much since 2022 there is no money being made. It is just money changing between shareholders. For everyone that has made money, there are losers. And that before the billions paid in compensation packages and broker fees.

The part missing from the headline: they’re gambling with future economic stability and the burden will not fall on the gamblers.

Tesla is about to have one of the worse declines this quarter since inception. The lack of subsidies and that everyone still interested in a Tesla would have bought last quarter prior to the subsidy lose. I would suggest selling prior to those numbers coming in for the US. They have pretty much declined the rest of the world over as well.

Its be beyond ridiculous that the future of a company rests on stuff that doesn't exist

And to think, they're willing to pay $1T to keep that weirdness...

Tesla is like Pre-WW2 Ford. A company with a batshit crazy CEO and outdated cars nobody wants. The difference is Ford was ousted by his own wife and son who threatened to sell their stock.

If you look at Musks enormous fortune and then how much cash it produces there is quite the mismatch. And as far as I know he doesn't get any dividends, but uses his fortune as collateral for debt, so cash could pose a problem. Probably a solvable problem, but still a challenge

More like 110% if it's value is in AI if it wasn't for that it would have a negative cash value. Since we can't see the real numbers in the books how deep of a hole the company is in is hard to tell but the bulk of the operation is deep in the negative.

That’s what is called vaporware.

That lawsuit actually had an impact on a proposal to the shareholder meeting. The proposal was on if Tesla was going to investigate investing into xAI, and the board didn't put out a recommendation on how to vote due to already being sued over it. The proposal failed according to the rules Tesla has for those votes (large number of abstained votes counted as no), but on the other hand it wasn't a binding vote, it was just an 'advisory'. So they can still go ahead and 'investigate' an investment into xAI.

Their profitability is/was most certainly created by the credits. There have been a couple quarters where they would have made a small profit without the credits, but on average they will go into money losing mode going forward. A Democrat back in office.? We will have to see if they turn the credits back on.

How do you think he financed his Twitter shit? He booked everything off of tesla

Exactly, so that’s what he can‘t do to take TSLA private. He needs a different shenanigan and I can’t imagine a scenario how it would be possible without collapsing TSLA upon announcement of such a move. But then again, I have no idea…

100 value rests on vapor ware and line keeps going up

The we're a 'robotics / AI company—not an automotive company' LARP was always the funniest thing about Tesla and the idiots who bought into that narrative.

Not to mention the 'gEnIuS' deliberately built a 'flagship' that cannot be driven in the majority of the EU.

But Grok is uhhh it does... I mean it could perhaps... Twitter porn? It's the most valuable thing on a worthless site. Like a small piece of coal buried in a pile of shit.

It's called TeslEr. The guy on TRUTH SOCIAL said so

The only believers left are the bagholders in too deep to believe otherwise

In this timeline it will somehow make it go even higher

At least you know!

70% of it's value rests on FSD, next generation roadster, cybertruck, robotaxi's, AI, giving Elon Musk a trillion Dollars. That sure is an expensive can the shareholders are kicking down the road, good luck and I hope you can stay ahead of the Chinese. I'd be worried when the rats start abandoning the ship, of wait....

The cybertruck is only about dick wagging, Elon projects his opinions onto the public but has fortunately lost touch a long time ago. I was always interested in his rise and ability to pilfor the best but his top down leadership, cutting corners and single driven opinion mindset quickly boxed up Tesla's future prospects, not to mention the pay package that is front end loaded and back end delivered. He has no intention of growing the company but he will siphon off more money regardless.

It would take a decade at this point for Tesla to release a newly modeled car.

I hope you’re right but the stock price is being held up the potential of robots. That’s what his Trillion dollar salary is based on.

Heck I hadn't heard of that fart cushion. This really is the dumbest timeline.

My understanding is that trillion is made up, theoretical unicorn farts. By that, to get it he has to hit targets based on getting a certain amount of humanoid robots no one wants in homes, and hitting goals with autonomous cars nothing he has promised or projecting coming to fruition, and even then the trillion is based on a projected share price that the communally delirious predict the company would have. His last ridiculous pay packet was based on him hitting a market cap that should have been nonsense, certainly wasn't borne by performance, but he managed to hype into existence by shear grift, but if he actually needs to deliver on his promises, there is slim to zero chance.

Funnily enough it apparently rested on unfinished AI dreams before Tesla even started working on AI projects. First it was cars, then alien dreadnought, then solar roofs and energy storage etc.

Unfinished? Try unstarted.

There’s still money to be made.

And a massive downside. So ya you could make 20 percent. Or loose 80 is more likely.

How dare you mock the glorious ingenuity of the fuhrer?!?

And musk worshipping servants on Reddit😂😂

You could be right since we are do for a 25% decline.

30% is still $240,000,000,000. The entire Ford Motor Company is worth $52,910,000,000