TSLA Megathread - For the week of Nov 03

This nuked the previous Terathread from this morning....... https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1on7t09/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_nov_03/ And here is the link to last week's Terathread https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1oj6sep/tsla_megathread_for_the_week_of_oct_29/

We will see TSLA at $500 before it sees $400 again. I joke and say it's business as usual but at this point the usual is the stock going up for no reason

call vs. put fight, yes calls can bully the puts for a long, long time

[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/tesla-door-handle-safety-issues.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/tesla-door-handle-safety-issues.html) >[Tesla](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA/) has been ordered to provide records to U.S. federal auto safety regulators to comply with a sweeping investigation into possible safety defects with the company’s flush-mounted, retractable door handles that can lead to people getting trapped. >The [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration](https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2025/INIM-PE25010-23199.pdf) said in a letter to [Elon Musk](https://www.cnbc.com/elon-musk/)’s automaker that the agency continued to receive complaints from Tesla owners after the regulators initiated a probe in September. >Owners said they were unable to enter or exit their cars due to battery power loss and other situations impeding normal use of the doorhandles. >In some cases, owners’ children were trapped inside hot vehicles, requiring first responder interventions or breaking windows to open the doors. First Principles

My thesis is that Elons pay package will pass - the stock will jump on the news, and then slowly start drifting sideways for the next quarter or two.

10 year Elonversaries today: *"I’m on the record saying that I think all cars will go* ***fully autonomous*** *in the long-term. I think it will be quite unusual to see cars that don’t have full autonomy – let say for new car production in the* ***15 to 20 years*** *timeframe… and for* ***Tesla it will be a lot sooner than that****. I actually think at the point which cars are being made that have full autonomy, any cars that are being made that don’t have full autonomy will have negative value. It will be like owning a horse. You are really owning it for sentimental reasons."* *""We changed the goal of the* ***drive unit*** *endurance from being approximately 200,000 miles to being a* ***million miles*** *– just basically we want drive units that just never wear out."* Editor's note: TSLA warranties its drive units for 150k miles max, some 100k. One example of a "million mile Tesla" is on its 14th drive motor.

I see the same. Might stay over 400 until 3-4 consecutive quarters of diminishing sales and profits

But if owning a horse is such a negative, why'd he try to gift one to a flight attendant.

Ahem..."sentimental reasons"

Tesla Can’t do what Waymo does, Tesla can’t do what Boston Dynamics does but hey “Flyin Cars” 🤣 Elon is getting ridiculous

Tesla up 2.63% right now on news their YoY sales in Europe in October continued to collapse.

I think it's up because the baggies are convinced giving Edolf a second trillion dollars is good. Or something.

just occurred to me if he can pump it over $500, he can do another 5:1 split easily

Easy to do a 4:1 split at $420

Ill try again next week. Ill get this correct Two weeks maybe, 6 months definitely

Treat it like FSD. Ten years on and it's still not done

Musk is out there telling people to vote for Cuomo in NYC. After Trump just did too. Cuomo who gave Musk endless money to rip off Buffalo. That's about the kiss of death in that race.

Stephen Miller endorsed Cuomo as well. Conservatives always say that liberals are "Communists" when it is a conservative vs liberal election, but when the election is between someone with mild left-wing views versus a proven liberal (Cuomo), they all know that Cuomo is on their side. And Mamdani probably isn't. Mamdani could be just faking it in order to win but they don't know that.

If Tweedledee, Tweedledum, and Nosferatu is endorsing a candidate's opponent, that's a no brainer.

The funny thing is that all three of them know that they are not very popular with the NYC general electorate, but their only hope for winning is getting all the Republican voters to vote for Cuomo and not the Republican nominee.

Norwegian Sovereign Fund votes no to the Denholm gift package.

Let's actually think what a flying car would be. For starters, would it be an EV? After all they are very heavy. Would it look like a normal car, but with the press of a button sprout wings? Good luck with that. Is it going to be an oversized drone. Imagine those whirring places with Tesla build quality. What licence would you need. I'd think narrowing it down to pilots who like Elon would make it pretty niche. And has all this been developed and tested in total secrecy over the last 5 years. Or has the genius just drawn a sketch and a napkin and handed it to his engineers?

Birds of a rapist flock together

Flying cars have been around for decades - impractical niche toys. Today, there's a half dozen start ups promising to mass produce them - all they need is some of that sweet investor cash from useful idiots. But the Musk grift doesn't even reach that low bar. His "flying car" will be a prototype, practically a movie prop, capable of skimming the ground in "flight" for less than 5 seconds, before waiting hours as the air tank refills. What will make the Elongelicals swoon is the thrusters will also be used for acceleration, for that much coveted 0-60 time...and also Musk has alleged they will help with cornering like racing motorcycles have had for a while. But again - one panty dropping 0-60 run and then its back to mom's basement to play video games while the air tank refills.

Sales down 9.9% YoY in China. Tesla p/e will be equal to the share price soon.

In 2026 there won't be an e in the p/e ratio.

Lets take a look at some of Elmo's goals for compensation: | Market Value | Operational Milestones | Estimated Total Value | Comment | |-------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | $2.0 trillion | 20 million vehicles delivered | $22 billion | Tesla needs to deliver 12M more vehicles (~8 years of current sales) | | $2.5 trillion | 10 million active FSD subscriptions | $55 billion | Half of 20 millions cars subscribed LOL | | $3.0 trillion | 1 million robots delivered | $98 billion | Only 1 million away from this goal! | | $3.5 trillion | 1 million Robotaxis in operation | $153 billion | Just needs to hit 3.5 trillion market cap since they did this in 2020 | | $4.0 trillion | $50 billion adjusted EBITDA | $219 billion | Gets the P/E down to 80. Just keep on dreaming. | | $4.5 trillion | $80 billion adjusted EBITDA | $295 billion | Increase profit 30 billion to make 76 billion in compensation | | $5.0 trillion | $130 billion adjusted EBITDA | $383 billion | Make more profit than Apple and be worth a trillion more | | $5.5 trillion | $210 billion adjusted EBITDA | $481 billion | Most profitable company in the world by a large margin - Increase profits 61%, but market cap only 10% | | $6.0 trillion | $300 billion adjusted EBITDA | $591 billion | P/E 20 | | $6.5 trillion | $400 billion adjusted EBITDA | $711 billion | P/E 16.5 again Elmo paid more than he increases profit by| | $7.5 trillion | None | $902 billion | Cathy Wood's $2000 2026 share price has them at 8 trillion market cap this will be easy | | $8.5 trillion | None | $1.1 trillion | Only 2x the value of NVIDA this must be bearish | Maybe he’ll hit the first milestone and earn less than half of his old package, but as for the rest of these milestones? At this rate, they’ll be hit sometime after the heat death of the universe - assuming Tesla’s still around and AI has taken over the entire economy by then. Elmo will probably make more money when he forces TSLA to buy xAI.

I think it would be something more like briefly hovering for parallel parking (or going over potholes LOL)

The shareholders should be asking how he is going to revive sales, and who is going to pay for all the robot stuff, because this quarter and onwards they are proabably losing money, and his $40Bn in bitcoin isn't doing very well.

TO INFINITY AND BEYOND!

No one who wants concrete details or cares about fundamentals is still a shareholder. The stock is bought and held on faith.

He just wants another guy he can control. More pay for play backroom crap that he knows he’ll get away with

Keep in mind the Operational milestones are not in order - the Market Cap milestones are in order of course, and then Technoking needs to achieve "any 1" of the Operation milestones fo his 1st payday...then "any 2" milestones for the 2nd payday, etc. With that in mind - Definitions matter. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925090866/tm252289-12\_def14a.htm#tANNC1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925090866/tm252289-12_def14a.htm#tANNC1) 1 million robotaxis in operation?...according to Musk, TSLA already has several million robotaxis on the road. The materials don't define "Robotaxi": “Robotaxi” means a vehicle (including Cybercab), regardless of the marketing name used, that uses FSD and is used to offer transportation services without a human driver in the vehicle, or any other successor, replacement or enhancement to such Robotaxi that is intended to **substantially perform or provide similar functionality**."...a fairly weasly definition. 10 million FSD subscriptions?...It explicitely prohibits counting "free" subscriptions, but nothing stops TSLA from selling subscriptions for a dollar. And it makes no distinction between "supervised" and "unsupervised", so its just the lousy crap they offer today that can be discounted. And in the definitions: "paid for by any individual or entity (other than the Company) or **any licensee authorized to sell subscriptions** on behalf of the Company." I have no idea what that means, but I'm sure it leaves some grift door open. SpaceX could buy 5 million subscriptions for a dollar and be licensed to "sell" them to Uber drivers. 1 million bots delivered?...kinda weird it doesn't say "Optimus Robots", eh? From the materials: "“Bot” means any robot or other physical product with mobility using artificial intelligence manufactured by or on behalf of the Company, including Optimus, and any other successor, replacement or enhancement to such Bot that substantially performs or provides similar functionality as such robot or other product using artificial intelligence (it being understood that any vehicles shall not be considered Bots)." So Roombas probably count. Now lets look at the Mulligans in the plan - "Covered Events" that allow TSLA's BOD to rain money on Elon, even if he doesn't m,eet the operation goals: "international, federal, state and local law, regulations or other governmental action or inaction, including enforcement policies, that prohibit or restrict the design and performance, sale (including direct-to-consumer sales), marketing, registration, manufacturing capability, supply chain and/or operation of FSD, Bots or Robotaxis, or" - that's right, those pesky regulators mean "FSD" and the "Robotaxi" don't have to really work at all. Finally: "The Administrator has final authority to interpret, count and calculate any and all aspects of whether the Operational Milestones under this Section III have been achieved"...wanna guess who picks the Administrator? His friends and family on the BOD, of course. And one last post-script...one day soon, Musk will sucker his XAi investors into buying out TSLA's supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Ai...you know, so TSLA can keep the lights on. The impact of that: Market Cap milestones mean nothing: "Market Capitalization and Adjusted EBITDA Milestone targets may be adjusted lower to account for split-up, spin-off or divestiture activity"

"Revenue? No no no no. Why would you go after revenue? If you show people revenue, they’ll ask ‘how much?’. And it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x-er or the 1000x-er becomes the 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue and you’re a potential pure play."

Yeah, I had the same thought, the vagueness of the goals are ripe for interpretation but Musk isn't avout the money, no he has no real interest in becoming the world's first trillionaire /s

Last week, Technoking went on some podcasts to lobby for his $1 trillion lotto payout. I can't resist posting some of his sage words of wisdom here - fruit of the once in a generation mind we are blessed to have access to: >Well, I mean, I often ask people, “What is the future that you want?” And they have to think about it for a second because, you know, they’re usually tied up in whatever their daily struggles are but you say, “What is the future that you want?” And generally **Sustainable Abundance**, what do these folks say, “What about a future where there’s sustainable abundance?” Like, “Oh, yeah, that’s a pretty good future.” You know and that that future is attainable with AI and robotics but you know it’s like I said there’s not every path is a good path. But I think if we if we push it in the direction of **maximally truth-seeking** and curious then I think AI will want to take care of humanity and **foster humanity** because we’re interesting. Listen up people: The future of humanity depends on this!!! >Like I said, so there is a benign scenario here which I think probably people will be happy with as long as we achieve it, which is **Sustainable Abundance**. Which is if everyone can have if you ask people like what’s the future that you want and I think a future where we haven’t destroyed nature like you can still we have the national parks we have the Amazon rainforest still there we haven’t paved we haven’t paved the rainforest like the natural beauty is still there but nonetheless **everyone has abundance**, everyone has excellent medical care, everyone has whatever goods and services they want. **It kind of sounds like heaven**. Elon is Lord? >Let’s just say I’m not going to build a robot army if I can be easily kicked out by activist investors. No way. For similar reasons, I refuse to date a supermodel or dunk a basketball.

All he's trying to do is save humanity. He's being generous really.

Elon just wants to create a world with sustainable abundance, where everyone has everything they want and money is no object! That’s why he needs an addition $1 trillion…

>"And generally Sustainable Abundance", "there’s sustainable abundance?", "which is Sustainable Abundance", " everyone has abundance" Of course Elon is an Abundance guy. The stupid Abundance movement is lobbying to deregulate and give more money to Elon.

this SA dream future is basically Amazon Prime shopping but with a zero knocked off the prices. Problem is price deflation in wants --> price inflation in needs. TANSTAAFL

We are just fortunate to be living in the same time period as this one of a kind genius #blessed

https://imgur.com/gallery/cybertrash-participating-liwa-international-festival-abu-dhabi-b6Q13ZI

Built for any planet, just doesn't work on any of them.

Clearly he wasn't using mad max mode. That would definitely get up sand dunes.

Great words of wisdom. Also happy cake day

Oh god, the sustainable abundance bullshit, is it just Musk or is everyone in tech saying it?  Don't worry, we only need all of the resources now but once we hit sustainable abundance, you will be taken care of, just look at all of the literature on corporate run utopias as an example.  I for one can't wait to get my bi-weekly stipend of Musk bucks

Thanks. As someone working in Bay Area myself, I think that only thing that “Silicon Valley” show got wrong is not having David Attenborough to narrate it, as it’s one of the most accurate documentaries of this century.

"We're all going to have an abundance, but you need to give me another $1tn or I won't bring heaven to you."

Whole sustainable abundance thing is just the premise of Star Trek without any of the actual fantastic technology that enables it or the same kind of examination of society and governance that went along with it. Essentially what would a post-scarcity human society look like? What would people actually do if they didn't need to work? Keep in mind this was premised on a level of technology that literally allowed for the direct interchangeability of matter and energy for even the most mundane of tasks. Gold was notably considered worthless simply because it could be easily replicated from any other substance in TNG. What we've got now is all these billionaire 'visionaries' saying they can accomplish the same thing with AI and robotics on a short time span. First and foremost there is absolutely no ability for them to actually deliver on those claims. Secondly even if they could this entire proposal completely lacks any of the wider analysis of societal and governance impacts. Okay lets say everything cost 10% of what it does today. Does that really matter if only say 2% of the population can even do useful work anymore? Who actually owns all this production capacity and prices goods too? Of course these guys are going to say it should be them and Musk is here saying he has to be the one in control of it all. Again if any of this was viable would it really be a good idea of have a proponent of eugenics and white nationalism at the helm of it all? How do people think that's actually going to end? For Musk specifically I think people should also realize he's just going to plow that money back into his petty culture war bullshit anyways and be back in a few years with his hand out again with nothing to show for it all like we've seen with Tesla's solar ambitions and all their claims over amazing battery and manufacturing technology for the last 5+ years. You're telling me this same asshole who couldn't even make a cheaper battery happen is going to make some magical robots that it'll lower the cost of every metal and material on the planet by 80%+? GTFO. None of these assholes are actually doing impactful work solving the real problems we have around moving to a zero carbon economy or making electrification less dependent on rare earth metals for motors. All they've managed to do is tell us that if we hand them a few trillions dollars more we'll have a better AI chatbot in a few years, hopefully... oh except for the power grid literally not being able to handle it and these tech geniuses having literally no solution to that very real problem and backing a political administration that's worsened the problem by deliberately blocking and defunding low marginal cost renewables at this point. It's become this perverse game just intent on sucking up as much capital as possible under some premise so they can get their cut and it's hit the point where it's literally depriving the actual productive parts of the economy of resources. That's not capitalism it's literally malinvestment. But it doesn't matter because these guys aren't actually engineers and problems solvers. They're the highest tier of middle man on the planet just looking to get their own cut of that big fat transaction they're proposing.

Yeah the exceptions in this thing are the really damning part. Musk can get a ton of money just by having the board declare that Tesla's entire business plan with AI is basically no longer viable due to market changes or if he simply sells off those divisions at a valuation of $50B or more. As long as he can also keep the company's valuation pumped up that could result in over $100B for him. Literally doing nothing and having the company's annual vehicle sales slow and the company's valuation keep up with inflation would get him over $50B. That $1T headline gets a lot of attention but it's also a shitload of money for basically failing to run the company well too and that's on top of the other provisions which award him his old struck down pay package too.

Extra points for doing so while pretending like he didn't know Mamdani's name. I mean that's the guy everyone wants to be taking voting advice from right? Someone who doesn't even know the names of candidates and can't be bothered to learn them. I think it might finally be starting to occur to these guys that they've pushed it too far and a lot of the country isn't on board with their bullshit. If they think it's bad now, just wait until millions of people lose healthcare coverage and tens of millions more see their premiums go up 20-30%+.

Abundance is just repackaged neoliberalism & third way Dem ideology. Their book talks about crazy stuff like orbital factories for some reason (???) and promises a better future, but the underlying policy is deregulation and more government money for "private-public partnerships", so more money for Elon Musk.

For Musk specifically it's literally premised on super heavy automation via robotics and AI. That's literally his sales pitch for Optimus. The idea that you can just indefinitely expand production and the marginal cost is only going to be what an extra humanoid robot costs. Auto insurance won't need to exist because the robotaxi will never crash. Also you won't need to even own a car because the robotaxi will be cheaper than a payment, etc. It's basically supply side economics with an AI and automation twist.

I really doubt that the people saying these things actually believe them. Especially Ezra Klein. Elon might believe them sometimes, depending on his mental state and drug levels in his body.

I don't think the guys pitching it do. Many journalists and Wall Street analysts are technologically illiterate to an almost comical extent though. Keep in mind these guys are generally history and english majors with no background in computing or engineering. Another side effect on spending so much money on these things is that it gives the illusion of viability and credibility to the proposals involved. I mean these guys wouldn't be spending hundreds of billions of dollars on this stuff if it wasn't fairly likely to work out right? That's also Musk's whole gimmick, somehow he convinced all these guys that he's just super smart and they aren't supposed to understand what he's proposing or critique it. It also doesn't matter if you're right because the stock goes up anyways and people's clients will still be upset that you told them not to buy TSLA when it rose another 50%. Until this stupid ass illusion breaks and TSLA's stock price can't just indefinitely defy gravity there's a heavy incentive not to analyze anything Musk says in a remotely critical way.

"if you raise our taxes we won't turn on the machines for you"

Pretty much every notable Republican candidate lost, and surely Cuomo to follow. For some reason the voting public needed another taste of Trump and Musk to temporarily realize they're abjectly horrible.

haven't found a story that explains the details, but apparently Tesla didn't deliver any cars to Turkey in October. I know they were gaming some kind of incentive program in the country and I think delivered 8000 cars in August, so they must have someone very angry

We’re a nation of children

I would very much like to see the details on this, we've been speculating that they have been using Turkey to stuff the channels and inflate delivery numbers

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34413/w34413.pdf Study on the effects of Musk being a Nazi on Tesla. Between 1.0 to 1.26 million fewer vehicles sold between the study period of October 2022 - April 2025. This represents 67-83% of actual Tesla sales during this period. By Q1 2025, monthly sales would have been approximately 150% higher without the Musk effect. Other EV and hybrid vehicle sales increased by 17-22% (1.0-1.26 million vehicles). Nearly one-for-one substitution from Tesla to competitor EVs and hybrids.

The Turkey car sales was due to a loophole and pulled forward demand. Tesla was selling their model y rwd as 160 kW car (software locked to 160 kW) so their buyers could use a tax break. That loophole got fixed. https://electrek.co/2025/09/02/tesla-sales-surged-in-turkey-over-a-loophole-that-has-been-patched/

Who knows anything about the state of robotaxis? Do you expect removal of the safety driver is priced in? Don’t want to argue if it‘s going to happen or not (nobody knows). But is it generally priced in would you say? Just thinking that lofty valuation will have to be backed with revenue growth at some point.

TSLA prices in everything when it's tweeted and then prices it in again when they have CGI and then prices it when they have a power point and a promise. Then they price it in twice when they see pictures or videos of a demo. Then they price it in again when they open up access to TSLA influencers. So by the time it reaches the general public it's been priced in by "orders of magnitude".

That's a very flattering take!

Robotaxis are so yesterday. Price is based on robots and flying cars this week.

Tesla just recorded its lowest monthly sales in Germany (750) since April 2022.

You sound like someone who would rather spend 20 min a week doing your own laundry than paying for a $35k robot with annual subscription fees to serve you popcorn while you spend 20 min doing your own laundry. Agree with all of your points

TSLA is about to level up! The world's most sophisticated engineering mind is about to let his gaze linger upon TSLA an additional 13% of the time. We'll all be buying poverty ending robots and flying cars from TSLA in no time. None of this is baked in yet - its time to buy.

That oughta be worth a trillion dollars, no?

It is, presumably, largely priced in. That said, we're they to be removed, absent immediate deaths resulting I would imagine that would give the share price a boost. However, there is no march of nines going on. Even if Texas law remains sufficiently lax to allow such removal, it's not going to happen, not this decade in any case, unless Musk has become sufficiently insane to trigger the inevitable carnage it'd unleash.

Some excerpts from Ron Baron's love letter to Elon, endorsing his lotto payout: >Baron Capital is in support of the proposed 2025 CEO Performance Award. We believe it reflects the same principles of **accountability**, performance and alignment with shareholder interests that drove Tesla’s past success...**Elon is the ultimate “key man”** of key man risk. Without his relentless drive and **uncompromising standards**, there would be no Tesla... If successful, Tesla could earn **$400 billion per year** in adjusted EBITDA for an extended period by 2035...We believe Elon is not only perhaps the **most extraordinary engineer on our planet** but an **unusually competent** businessperson. Looks like TSLA's adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months is a hair over $10 billion. I've never landed a rocket, but my abacus shows TSLA would have to grow EBITDA by over 44% annually to do that (yes its presently dropping). I dunno, that's a whole lot of vaporware.

Joe Gebbia, co-founder of AirBnB, a member of the Trump administration and a Tesla board member claims that ISIS endorses Mamdani. Very cool people in the Tesla BoD!

Without Elon they wouldn't have put a stainless steel incelmobile on the market, and their new "affordable" Model Y with its glass roof hidden with the headliner (real "first principles design" there). where the fuck are the 4680s from 2020s Battery Day?? Dojo from AI Day? The Monterrey factory promised with 2023's "Investor Day". Competent at puffery and stock manipulation, I'll give him that.

Joe Gebbia also spent [2 million dollars](https://time.com/7331119/zohran-mamdani-billionaires-ackman-bloomberg/) campaigning against Mamdani.

That quote sounds like the sycophants who praise Trump during his cabinet meetings.

Where did you see that number?

>the most extraordinary engineer >Unusually competent businessesperson They have to be joking right? Both of those are so easy to prove false. Remember when he was forced to overpay for Twitter because he was so good at business?

And in the UK 511 sales in October, they will be paying Elmo his bonus with Teslas it appesrs as they wont have any money. [https://eletric-vehicles.com/tesla/tesla-uk-records-weakest-month-of-2025-in-october-with-511-units-sold/](https://eletric-vehicles.com/tesla/tesla-uk-records-weakest-month-of-2025-in-october-with-511-units-sold/)

I was long in 2022 when the stock was falling apart but Model 3/Y sales were booming globally. Now I'm short in 2025 when the stock is booming and Model 3/Y sales are falling apart globally. ^Make ^it ^make ^sense

He'll be paid in shares, not cash.

[https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Fahrzeugzulassungen/2025/pm45\_2025\_n\_10\_25\_pm\_komplett.html?snn=827402](https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Fahrzeugzulassungen/2025/pm45_2025_n_10_25_pm_komplett.html?snn=827402)

His whole premise is wild. We must have AI and robots to do sustainable abundance. Nothing in his talk justifies this premise. This is only going to create _more_ waste and _more_ consumption than if we just paid people decent wages and guaranteed that they wouldn't hit rock bottom in life if anything goes wrong. Tax wealthier people more, codify stakeholder capitalism over shareholder capitalism, allow people to make moral decisions instead of money over all else. Pay people to do something instead of this fantasy where you pay them to do nothing. > I think AI will want to take care of humanity and foster humanity because we’re interesting. This particular sentence is very funny to me because Musk does not like the most interesting bits of being a human. He's got an extremely rigid definition of what is good and what people should do.

You really need to get a sense of humour.

Tesla, a company that struggles to sell cars, is spending money on advertising Elon’s $1 trillion comp package to shareholders.

"Brats" maybe?

"I hate advertising" - Griftoking, 2019

So, shareholders are gonna vote for Elons pay package and the stock price is gonna fly on the news. Afraid we're gonna have to live with that for the time being.

Why wouldn't this be a "sell the news" event?

It's all laughable and truly illustrates the disconnect from reality that modern times have brought us to.. Literally the rich getting unfathomably richer. All because stock holders KNOW that if Elon leaves TSLA will crash. Also funny that you have to incentivize a guy worth hundreds of billions that just doom scrolls and posts on Twitter all day. *But he's the key to success!*

Could be right.  But TSLA doesn't obey normal rules. The only observable rule I've seen is buy on the rumor, buy on the news - regardless of whether it's good or bad!

My employer (a Fortune 1000 Company) is switching to Starlink as our Internet provider. AMA.

I just did a speed test, and looked up the speeds Starlink promises. My very ordinary internet is twice as fast as Starlink for download and ten times as fast for upload...and I'm comparing to the top end of the range Starlink lists. So - Starlink might be a very fast satellite provider...but it is still slower than "ordinary" internet. IIRC, they were denied being part of rural internet grants because they couldn't meet baseline speed requirements. I have to ask why - cost? A lot of people in the field or on the road? Some quarrel with their current carrier? They're heavily invested in SpaceX? You leadership is in love with Musk? My next question - a Fortune 1000 company surely has multiple facilities spread out all over the place. Will they have to purchase equipment and mount it on each and every facility? I ask because IMHO that equipment looks "cheap" and I can't imagine it will last that long. The internet tells me the warranty is 12 months (they're forced to do 24 months in Europe) and you can buy a "performance kit" with 36 month warranty. That tells me that every 5 years or so they can expect to re-install new equipment...just seems weird to me unless there's a very good reason to ditch that reliable underground cable for a receiver set out in the weather.

Yesterday I read somewhere that Texas law allows Musk to vote his own shares. Its practically impossible for Musk to lose this vote.

>Other goals tied to the pay plan include reaching 20 million vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions​, 1 million bots delivered and​ 1 million robotaxis in commercial operation. >**The proposed plan doesn't specify whether the FSD subscriptions must be purchased or could include free trials.** Can't wait for the documentaries where people say there was no way you could have known it was fraud.

-5%

in what context. Like for the HQ, every branch office, etc? Primary connection or as a backup?

It does specify no free trials, but nothing stops them from selling $1 subscriptions. They can also license to 3rd parties (explicitly permitted in the document), so nothing stops SpaceX from ordering 5 million 90 day subscriptions. There's also a mulligan on the operational goals- if "government regulation" prevents 1 million robotaxis, for example, the Administrator (stooge appointed by BOD) can change the goal, and presto chango: FSD "supervised" is a "robotaxi".

Across all global locations by end of 2027 is the current stated goal. They're claiming $2m in operating costs compared to MPLS connectivity. It will be the primary connection apparently.

>I have to ask why - cost? A lot of people in the field or on the road? Some quarrel with their current carrier? They're heavily invested in SpaceX? You leadership is in love with Musk? They say it's simpler than MPLS and should save $2 million in annual operating costs. I think it's to provide more reliability to some of our more remote locations overseas. Also, apparently it's easier/faster to integrate acquisition sites with Starlink. As far as I know, no other investments in SpaceX/Musk ventures. >Will they have to purchase equipment and mount it on each and every facility?  I'm not on the team heading this transition and the communication to employees does not include details. Last time I looked we had about 150 U.S. locations and 125 international sites. But again, I've gotten no details about how they're going to do the actual set up.

It's going back up. It will likely close flat. It's been flat for nearly a month now. They are all waiting to see if Elon can be bothered to show up for work.

I would have said SpaceX buying FSD would never happen but they have conveniently started buying the Cybertrucks that aren't selling... So maybe FSD will be coming soon

Others have tried to post videos of all the Cybertrucks being stuffed at SpaceX, but the xitter links aren't allowed. I've found a youtube video from a Branch Elonian's website. Its hundreds of them. Reports are that XAi is also buying them. [https://youtu.be/uUNy7jRof\_c?t=449](https://youtu.be/uUNy7jRof_c?t=449)

So it's selling really really well. So well that they can divert hundreds to be parked at SpaceX. What a commercial failure... Can the die hard fans deny it at this point?

Die hard Elongelicals don't care about mundane car sales. Elon has them chasing the next new shiney object. I mean...they're about to vote to give Musk $1 trillion - they think things are going great!

Anyone livestreaming / discussing the Bagholder meeting?

I'd love to know as well. YouTube preferably

And me if anyone has a link?

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZtV1gyP02U](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZtV1gyP02U)

What a load of shit this is.

> I'm willing to bet the cyber trucks are going to be Christmas presents for long term employees! LOL. Just what employees want.

That seems nuts if you do any real network traffic. If it's a non-tech company and all cloud based (i.e. you're just using like GSuite, hosted SaaS services)... it might be less nuts.

*TESLA SHAREHOLDERS APPROVE ELON MUSK’S $1 TRILLION PAY PACKAGE

not surprised, stock will moon tomorrow

"Optimus will eliminate doctor's jobs"

That was an inevitability. The easiest way remaining to really pump the stock.

Is Leon salty about botched plastic surgeries?

Maybe Optimus can finally fix his busted manhood.

After hours dead ass UNCH, rather surprising. Option sellers win (for now).

1b Optimus are going to end world poverty. Also, there will be solar-powered AI satellites and he is going to build a Terra-Fab to build chips 30% better than NVIDIA blackwell at 10% of the cost. Holy shit I have not listened to such an event before but this is wild.

Thank God for that! I was worried that Elon doesn’t have enough money.

Always has to be a new pump.

He was saying similar things almost 10 years ago. The machine that builds the machine, manufacturing so fast that air friction becomes the limiting factor and so on.

Wait he actually said those things? Direct quotes?

But SpaceX will still have multiple funding rounds because it's better to burn (explode) other peoples money

He said that Optimus robots will solve world poverty. This is nothing new, he has been saying crazy stuff like this for decades.

Oh I know we will be in the age of affordable abundance soon. I was more curious about the chips and building their own FAB (while they still build cars in tents)... because the Dojo project went so smoothly

Maybe 10bn maybe 30bn of them!!!! And they are going to have a manufacturing line which produces one robocab thing every 10 secs!!

He also said there will be no more jails. Criminals will get assigned optimus robot that will follow them around and stop them from doing crime.

Musk did Joe Rogan's podcast last week and promised that the 2020 Roadster 2 will be unveiled this year. One week later; >*MUSK SAYS TESLA TO REVEAL ROADSTER 2 IN EARLY APRIL 2026 >*MUSK SAYS ROADSTER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN 12-18 MONTHS LATER

He used the word 'abundance' multiple times again, just like on Rogan.

So the 2020 Roadster announced in 2017 will be available in 2027 or 2028?

No. But we can pretend.

Yes, putting low income workers out of work should be great for poverty.

Not just "criminals" . . . 2000s BSG reboot . . .

Oh this is direct sci-fi rip-off from Iain Bank's "Culture" novels set in post-scarcity AI-run communist utopia. The handful of violent criminals among billions of people get "slap droned" if society deems them a risk. Musk has plagiarized many bits and pieces from Banks books - seemingly without ever understanding he would be a villain in them. His family trust is called "Excession" iirc.

Good call on the Culture series. I sadly haven't read it yet but it was pretty clear this whole sustainable abudance pitch was just a repackaging of the idea of a post-scarcity society that's common in some sci-fi series (notably Star Trek: TNG). Culture seems to much more closely match the pitch those as seems from the synopsis to be similarly achieved through massive levels of automation versus full command over energy-to-matter technology like in the Trek verse. As you said, completely absent from all this is any of the actual analysis of the societal and governance problems that go with that level of technology that are a common focal point in those series. Instead of the utopian vision they portray Musk seems much more focused on demanding full control and ownership for himself like you see in more dystopian scifi where everything is own and controlled by a few megacorps like the Cyberpunk series which he is apparently a fan of, the Alien series or Blade Runner. Musk is known to be a sci-fi fan and apparently it's the only thing Max Levchin (the guy who actually wrote the software for Paypal and led the engineer revolt that ousted Musk as CEO) will discuss with him.

I legitimately wonder how Musk's relationship with the Whitehouse will change when Trump kicks the bucket or becomes a vegetable. He's looking awful lately. Vance is more aligned with Musk obviously, but it's hard to get a read on what he'd actually do he's such an empty suit grandstander.

I still think Vance would largely be ignored. He just doesn't have the ability to bully the legislature into compliance that Trump does and that would end a lot of this stuff. Hell even the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of the President's ability to levy tariffs in the manner he has. Obviously the recent elections have shown quite a shift in at least some of the country too. Mamdani getting NYC definitely has some of the business community questioning if their fealty to Trump might have already backfired and obviously here in Virginia they lost they lost massively across the entirety of the state (pretty much a given after DOGE vilified and fired so many federal workers). I just think the MAGA movement pretty much ends with Trump and the GOP would immediately snap into 'future of the party' mode and reposition pretty quickly. Hell there's a good chance that it's exactly what a lot of them have been waiting for the last few years, Trump to kick off since they don't have the spine to actually confront him on anything.

> I just think the MAGA movement pretty much ends with Trump and the GOP would immediately snap into 'future of the party' mode and reposition pretty quickly. I would agree with that. After the nauseating mourning period, there would be a quick distancing themselves from most of Trump. But what would the future even look like? The GOP doesn't really stand for anything right now outside of brutalizing minorities and big business interests, the latter of which doesn't exactly seem very popular at this moment. Hitching the wagon to hated people like Musk seems very Trumpian and not really in their best interests.

I'm a big sci-fi nerd which might be why I caught onto Elmo's scams earlier than most. I am approximately the same age as Musk, and probably read a lot of the same books (although I doubt Musk has been an avid reader since college). I actually thought I invented the hyperloop after a 7th grade science class in the early 80s. I drew a straight line from LA to London through an oblate sphere (napkin math) then calculated constant acceleration and deceleration at 1g... and the travel times were insane. Of course, even back then I knew building a laser-straight vacuum tunnel through the Earth's crust (magma?) was impossible. Just like I knew building miles of overland vacuum tunnels was impossible when Musk announced his "hyperloop" years later. Of course, by the time I finished college, I knew all about vacuum trains as a sci-fi trope and Popular Science "what-if?" For a while, as the media breathlessly gushed about his pods, and dumb billionaires like Richard Branson lost millions on doomed ventures, I felt like I was taking crazy pills. Musk could have pretended to invent the Star Trek transporter beam and it would have made as much sense. It really proved to me that our world, collectively, has a very limited grasp of reality. Kind of like how some people now think Musk will crack AGI for... reasons. Well, I think the most faithful think that FSD data will somehow accumulate in a data center to fuel a singularity from a LLM. Now that Dojo is dead, I guess we can look forward to Grok/Mecha-Hitler ushering in the AI golden age. "Grok" is a term from Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land" as you probably know. Ah, the Luxury Space Communism of the Culture: if you do want to read one, I would recommend "Player of Games" as a starting point. Or, if you are curious about the AI and the society, maybe "Look to Windward." The books don't need to be read in any order. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the Culture, to me, vis a vis Mr. Musk, is that their AI created a written and spoken language designed to be a literal "woke mind virus." The Culture's language doesn't have specific genders in general use - or specific words for many kinds of violence. I sometimes wonder if Musk actually finished any of the books.

Best guess, the kind of collective amnesia and dismissal of all the things they've done wrong that they're so good at. Things would quickly pivot to the far left being dangerous again and the need for 'balance' in the legislature to keep them from ruining the country. I'm sure they'll have some folksy quip to dismiss their wholesale enabling of the Trump administration "Donald Trump is dead and you can't just leave the corpse alone! I thought you Democrats were progressive why can't you 'progress' past talking about a dead man?" Etc. Much like before the GOP doesn't really need big policy goals if they aren't in charge anymore. If the country does snap back in the other direction it'll just be another 4 or 8 years of obstruction at every turn and then holding that up as proof that the government can't do anything right when society has forgotten enough to give them another turn at the wheel.

Yes

Yeah I think a lot of us have background as basically sci fi and technology nerds ourselves so it's pretty easy to see where some of this stuff comes from or where the weird historical revisionism comes in. I remember watching shows about the DC-X and VentureStar program back on the Discovery channel in the 1990s for example so a lot of the bluster about SpaceX and reusable launch systems was immediately apparent. Musk has always reminded me of being 12 years old again and super hyped on sci fi and what might be possible with technology but lacking the technical background to necessarily realize the limitations or problems involved. There was some formative moments figuring that out too. My friend's father was an aerospace engineer and first generation immigrant (and consequently a man of relatively few words) and I remember gushing about how great composites and carbon fiber were for like 3 minutes straight only to have him respond to why they wouldn't work in a lot of applications with two words: "too brittle". Seems like Musk never really got that experience or couldn't accept it when it did happen in a lot of ways. I think there's just a big gap in technical knowledge in our world today in general because knowledge has become so specialized. People are maybe tangentially familiar with something like the AI and machine learning or space flight and don't really know the theory and history well enough to recognize the hairiness of the problems involve or sheer scale of resources and data needed to make even incremental improvement. But Musk is willing to basically lie and say hey we've got a new processor that's going to be 5-10x better than everything out there that'll make it all work out. It's funny because he did that initially with Dojo only to have the project blow up and fall short of expectations and now he's just turned around and started hyping Tesla's AI5 and AI6 chips as being just a revolutionary across the board too. > Perhaps the most interesting thing about the Culture, to me, vis a vis Mr. Musk, is that their AI created a written and spoken language designed to be a literal "woke mind virus." The Culture's language doesn't have specific genders in general use - or specific words for many kinds of violence. I sometimes wonder if Musk actually finished any of the books. That's super interesting and kind of reminds me again of other sci fi like the movie Demolition Man where society literally can't deal with violence because it's been absent for so long or the Giver where it's just collectively erased from memory so as not to be encouraged, repeated or cause regret and shame. It wouldn't shock me if he does reference in particular as some argument against 'communism' and the left at some point going forward too if he's remotely familiar with the work.

"Too brittle." Ha. Love it. No one like that at OceanGate, if I remember correctly. Or there were, but Stockron Rush ("Sea-Elon?") fired them all. I know the popular wisdom now is that Hyperloop was some sort of 3-D chess to discredit HSR, but I really had the sense that Elmo thought it was possible, if only more people would put some time and money into it. Honestly he was (then) too busy with Space Sex and Tesla, to put much effort (or other people's money) into hyperloop. But like manned colonies on Mars, sentient cars using low-res cameras to drive, and now sentient robots, the burning question is: is he really this dumb? ie does he believe these things are possible? Or does he know it's all BS and he's just the most successful con-man in history? From the twitter purchase and accompanying disclosures during the entertaining court battle, my take is that he (and many of his SV techno-lord "buddies" - (Jason Calicanis, for instance)) really are this dumb. We know he's not an engineering genius, a software genius, a legal genius, or design genius - yet many of my friends and their well-educated parents are convinced that Musk is a genius. I have to bite my lip when his name comes up.

Wait was yesterday supposed to be the product demo Musk was hyping up so much? More delays and a few artists impressions?

A lot of hype about the unboxed assembly process. Is there any info on whether cars made this way are just structurally safe? How sure are they this more efficient system results is strong body frames?

Did the shareholders approve the twitter/x/xai bailout? I have yet to see results.

Remember how the Cybertruck was going to be a folded exoskeleton? And turns out it's just a unibody... And remember how the factory was going to be an alien dreadnaught, the only apeed limitations being air resistance? In reality Tesla has tents at their California location... Think of the unboxed method as largely the same.

I watched the shareholder meeting and it was a very embarrassing set up. It was like going back to the 2000s. At the end when Elmo was talking, you could see he obviously had an eye on the share price movements, and at one point the after hours went negative and you could see him clam up, he really thought the more he talked the more the price would go up. You could feel everyone was waiting for a big reveal and nothing happened. Tesla have reached their blackberry moment, declining sales, nothing innovative coming forward and no clear revenue streams for the next 2 to 3 years.

No, no. Next year is all about Cybercab, Optimus, and Semi!  And Roadster in 2028(ish)!

So how does Tesla show the ~$120 billion Elon Musk bonus on its balance sheet?

"After reviewing, we found that you broke Rule 1 by engaging in sexualized harassment" Apparently saying musk uses ivf and has a breeding fetish triggered the alon simps a lot.

Mixed results from what I read, the board said they will "examine" it further, I imagine it will get the green light though not sure what rationale they are going to use to justify spending billions of dollars in xAI

The xai investment will require cash which they will be in short supply or TSLA shares which will put downward pressure in the share price.  That will also put the XAI/X/twitter balance sheet in broad daylight. I guess we were not ready for it.

Maybe they will take a page out of Musk's playbook and wave due diligence

Will be interesting to see it compared to the BYD supercar...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5JXjbfXEAAFsy7?format=png&name=small

[giga factory is cutting shifts](https://old.reddit.com/r/Reno/comments/1opnoov/if_you_think_traffic_to_usa_parkway_on_the/)

Yesterday was a smorgasbord of future Elonversaries - I think Technoking was riding high after getting his $1 trillion lotto winnings approved. Just a sample: >So the scale of Optimus, like I said, that’s really going to be something else. I think it’s going to be the **biggest product of all time** by far. Yeah. So, like, bigger than cell phones, bigger than anything. >I think there could be **tens of billions of Optimus robots** out there. >But I think it’s going to literally get to one hundred million a year, maybe even a billion a year. And, you know, people often talk about, like, eliminating poverty, giving everyone amazing medical care. Well, there’s actually only one way to do that, and that’s with the Optimus robot. >there’s always people always talked about eliminating poverty, but actually, Optimus will actually **eliminate poverty**. Optimus will actually **give people incredible medical care**. >And so that’s what I mean by sustainable abundance, is that **people can have whatever they want**, have all their needs met, >I think Optimus will ultimately **increase the size of the economy** probably by a **factor of ten** or more. >Optimus and, I think, **Tesla vehicles will play a big role on the moon and Mars**. So for a moon base and a Mars city, Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots are natural fit for building and operating a moon base than a Mars city. And this last one gave me a chuckle >you try to tell people that the Tesla can drive itself, and they think you’re crazy or something I was just have this argument with my Safety Driver!

>there’s always people always talked about eliminating poverty, but actually, Optimus will actually eliminate poverty. Optimus will actually give people incredible medical care. This is the classic "effective altruism" and "Abundance" stuff, usually peddled by the same individuals. Rich people should get even more deregulation and money and something something, there will be no poverty at some unspecified point in the future. >I think Optimus will ultimately increase the size of the economy probably by a factor of ten or more. Sure, why not.

IMHO, this is a slightly different spin on effective altruism...because it involves the fantasy that Optimus is "real". Effective altruism argues about priorities involving "real" resources...but Optimus is just sci-fi garbage - sort of a tech-bro spin on the 19th century Utopian movements. I really do marvel on what goes on in these shareholder meetings - a sideshow carny has more credibility, yet people just attentively listen as Musk casually claims he'll increase the economy 10 fold!

> And, you know, people often talk about, like, eliminating poverty, giving everyone amazing medical care. Well, there’s actually only one way to do that, and that’s with the Optimus robot. That is an insane statement to make by anyone, let alone the CEO. Only Tesla's robot is the robot that can save us, not literally any of the dozens of similar robots in development.

Worse cause this was on reddit, see if they will uphold my appeal this time round.

> Rich people should get even more deregulation and money and something something, there will be no poverty at some unspecified point in the future. Musk's "world of abundance" would probably look a lot more like the kind of meh movie Elysium. There would be abundance... for the wealthy. The poor would live like animals. Kind of like now, but with robots.

And with no explanation for, like, how it's going to eliminate poverty, or like, give amazing medical care. Have you seen those hands, way more nimble than any surgeon ;) Just watch it try to serve popcorn or fill a cup.

>Tesla have reached their blackberry moment Fingers crossed

Robots can “punch down” very well.

Yesterday CNBC said the rumor that Larry Ellison is buying a large number of Tesla cars near end of the quarter to boost TSLA current earnings report is false. But CNBC did not cite any sources. So I don't believe CNBC report. Larry is a big TSLA share holder. He made a lot of money off ORCL stock. It should be a common sense to spend a little to make more by making TSLA share price going higher. What do you think about Larry Ellison bought lots of cars from TSLA? He could just use them as rewards to Oracle employees or family and friends.

$tsla down 4.91% right now.

Why wait, you can compare the byd to a blank sheet of paper today

Why wait, you can compare the byd to a blank sheet of paper today

What are you talking about TSLA is already using the unboxed method to produce their ultra low cost model 2. Without it the model 2 would not have been possible!

>"We continue to believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as **full scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap**," Ives wrote on Thursday. Ah yes - just as soon as the robotaxi that still can’t reliably drive itself suddenly enters mass production, the profits will start flowing. And don’t forget optimus details unknown, use case unclear (maybe it’ll do surgery?), but trust us, it's definitely going to unlock trillions. Who needs product specs, regulatory clarity, functioning autonomy, or a viable market when we’ve got vibes? A P/E of 300 is obviously way too bearish for Dan Ives’ imagination.

Some thoughts on the cult meeting: \-The meeting starts out with the boring stuff, shareholder proposals. Most are like, "please, Tesla is awesome, but can we have the most basic accountability, like making sure we aren't exploiting child labor?" The BoD recommends against all of them. The shareholders in attendance literally boo (BOO!) the NYT Comptroller for asking for some accountability. \-Pay package is, of course, approved with apparently 75%+ of the vote. The crowd starts chanting "Elon, Elon" (remember, not a cult) as he takes the stage. Edolf does his usual stupid dance schtick. \-"I'm going to say a bunch of things that I probably shouldn't say." He says other Shareholder Meetings are "snooze-fests" but "ours are bangers." \-Optimus bots apparently "go charge themselves." (Doubt) \-Optimus will be the "biggest product of all-time, by far." Bigger than cell phones! \-"Every human on Earth is going to want their own R2D2/C3PO." He does not explain how every single person will be able to afford one. \-Says they will have the largest ramp of any product ever. Will start with a 1m/year line in Fremont, then 10m/year in Austin. Says they will do 100m/year, maybe even a billion. \-Optimus will end poverty and give everyone access to amazing medical care. Optimus will ultimately be better than the best human surgeon. \-Optimus will provide a more humane form of containment than prison. Anyone who has committed a crime will have an Optimus follow them around to prevent them from committing crime. Prisons can be eliminated. \-With AI and robotics, you can actually increase the global economy by a factor of ten or maybe one hundred, he says. "Optimus is kind of like an infinite money glitch." Maybe there won't even be money in the future. This man is a moron. Then he pivots to say, "hang onto your Tesla stock." My guy, you should said there wouldn't be money in the future! \-In declaring the new mission of "Sustainable Abundance," he implies Tesla's original mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable energy is done. \-Says the best future we can imagine is one where people can have whatever they want, have all their needs met, but "at the same time, we don't destroy nature, and we keep the rainforests and the beautiful natural parks and all that stuff." \-Says their biggest educational opportunity is to tell potential customers that Teslas drive themselves. Teslas do not legally drive themselves. \-"I'm confident that in the next month or two, we should....we will allow you to text and drive." No word on if Tesla will be assuming legal liability in that case. \-"The Cybercab doesn't even have pedals or steering wheel." There are literally photos if it with a steering wheel while undergoing testing. Production begins April 2026 (doubt). \-He's trying to do Alien Dreadnought with the Cybercab production - a unit every ten seconds, maybe every five seconds. Sure, sure man. \-Optimus 3 will be like a person in a robot outfit. \-Speculates they will have discussions with Intel about manufacturing chips. Also says Tesla may have to do a "TeraFab" to get the volume of chips they need. \-Trying to downplay the amount of energy needed for these AI data centers (I think?), he says there's going to be a lot of solar powered AI satellites. \-"We’ve obviously refreshed the product line" lol an actual line he said when discussing S,3,X,Y and CT. \-"And, of course, we’ve got the Cybertruck, which is the toughest truck of all time. It’s literally bulletproof" lol this garbage again?

\-Says they will start manufacturing the Semi next year. Again, this is a vaporware product that was supposed to go into production in \*2019.\* Says next year is massive products starting production - Optimus, Semi, and Cybercab. \-A rare 4680 mention (thought it was dead?). Says it'll be used in the Cybercab and Optimus. \-Starts the Q&A by saying Optimus will take questions next year. Then he calls on TeslaBoomerMama and thanks her for her help (I assume in getting his absurd $1tn pay package passed?). Edolf says it will be "kind of nutty" how much bigger they will be than Berkshire Hathaway long term. Boomer Mama then asks him to get his security checked because the investors want him safe. She closes by requesting that the other Elon companies be there next year. \-Says they'll do free FSD transfer for another quarter. So cool how he makes huge company decisions by agreeing to whatever random question he gets from a cult member. \-Next audience member asks to speed up the Robovan or other wheelchair accessible vehicle to help the less fortunate. Elon basically punts it lmao \-Dry cathode is really hard. Oops! \-Tesla is going to expand vehicle production as fast as possible. Aspirationally, they are aiming to increase vehicle production by 50% by the end of next year (oh good, they're back to the 50% YoY claim!). He says "it's very hard to increase production" then guesses their "exit rate" at then of 2026 will be 2.6-2.7m annualized. Then they will aim to get to 4m annualized by the end of 2027 and 5 million by the end of 2028. That's a long ways off from the previous goal of 20m/year before 2030! He also says these are "aspirational goals" aka don't believe them! \-Optimus bots and Tesla vehicles will play a big role on the moon and Mars, he says as if getting there has been solved lmao \-Elmo "see a path...to get below $.20 per mile in current year dollars" I assume about the non-existent robotaxi? \-Things get even weirder as he starts discussing "uploading an approximate snapshot of someone with Nerualink to an Optimus body." He claims this will happen in less than 20 years. \-Roadster 2 unveil (again) coming April 1, 2026 with production coming 12 to 18 months later. Totally. \-Says AI will hold the power in the future and be in charge, not humans.

Everyone is going to want an Optimus, money won't exist in the future, Optimus is an infinite money glitch, hold onto your TSLA stock!

> Tesla is going to expand vehicle production as fast as possible. Aspirationally, they are aiming to increase vehicle production by 50% by the end of next year Checks notes - They want to expand production while sales for the last 24 months have been in steady decline and we haven't even seen the impact of losing the $7500 tax credit yet? You really have to be brain dead or a cult member to buy of the bullshit this guy is selling.

Elon is now responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people after he destroyed USAID What a pile of shit

> -Optimus will provide a more humane form of containment than prison. Anyone who has committed a crime will have an Optimus follow them around to prevent them from committing crime. Prisons can be eliminated. Amongst all the stupidity, that may be the dumbest one. His sci fi delusions aside, Musk can seemingly only envision white collar criminals such as himself who just sit around all day and Tweet.

I do like how there's basically 0 acknowledgement of declining sales. And in fact, talking about expanding capacity for those declining sales. This must be what it was like to attend a Jim Jones party.

> -Starts the Q&A by saying Optimus will take questions next year. I genuinely think they will try that and it will be very difficult to train an AI to lie as brazenly and wildly as Musk does.

They reduced shifts in one of their plants today.

Tbh, I support Tesla making 3 million cars per year. Go for it!

There's emerging narrative that they're actually supply constrained. You can hear different talking points - batteries, AI chips, etc. I expect that narrative will grow and get much more crisp over Q4 and be one of key areas covered during next earnings.

OceanGate was a mess on so many levels. Carbon fiber wasn't a great material choice and one of the sad things is that multiple parties warned Rush about the risk and there was even a whistleblower who filed a wrong termination lawsuit over getting fired for the lack of rigor in the design and testing of the sub. Stockton Rush definitely had a lot of similarities to Musk though, especially when it came to convincing himself that he smarter than everyone else on the topic and that it was a waste of time to even attempt to scan and validate the design in conventional ways. All indications I've seen are that Musk nowhere near as smart as he believes himself to be and generally speaking is very lazy on top of that and unwilling to actually dig into the details and minutiae that make certain solutions nonviable and certain problems extremely difficult. He tends to oversimplify everything and it's pretty clear that he really didn't understand that a problem like FSD wasn't going to be solved in the same way that having a startup create a website was until fairly recently. If something isn't clearly impossible he'll just assume it's easily accomplished and call anyone who tries to disagree an idiot and probably fire them. To date that's largely been eclipsed by his ability to hype his companies, fund raise and throw money at problems until someone produces something that at least appears viable or he moves on to some bigger and more fantastic promise that sufficiently distracts from his prior promises and failures. I think he's kind of running out of headroom at this point though as there's really not anything that's going to top the promises of this post-scarcity world that he's literally promising shareholders today. Really I think it demonstrates how effective marketing can be. Everyone is told Musk is a genius and well he's rich so there must be some merit to that right? Knowledge is specialized so people assume the word salad of technical terms and stolen anecdotes Musk spits out represents a deep technical knowledge. It's not until he starts babbling about something they have some domain specific expertise in that it becomes apparent that he's full of crap and even then a lot of people will assume it's just that one topic and not all the other fields he pretends to be an expert in.

They are supply constrained. SpaceX / XAI have so many orders they can't keep up.

Just sentence hardened criminals to time in a Cybertruck with a dead 12v.

>Optimus bots apparently "go charge themselves." (Doubt) Amazon has done this with their robots since forever ago. Ditto for Roomba. Technoking's team can probably pull this one off.

Just to troll his flock, Tesla should serve free Flavor Ade at the next event.

As long as charge is a euphemism for something.

Grok Q & A: "Were the robots at tesla's Austin event tele-operated?" *Yes, the Optimus humanoid robots demonstrated at Tesla's "We, Robot" event in Austin, Texas (held on October 10, 2024, at Giga Texas), were tele-operated by humans rather than operating fully autonomously.* "Was it dishonest for Tesla to accept reservations for the second generation roadster, while never delivering the product?" *Yes, it borders on dishonest in practice, though not strictly illegal.* "Why can't Tesla produce automatic wipers" *In short, Tesla could fix this overnight with a sensor, but it would undermine their camera-only bet on autonomy.* "Is Elon Musk a drug addict" *For now, it's substantiated heavy use—not proven addiction* "Is it Fraudulent for Tesla to guarantee all cars have the hardware necessary for full self driving, but then iterate several hardward improvementsd rendering the original hardware obsolete?" *No, it is not legally fraudulent—but it is ethically questionable, misleading, and has fueled major lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny. Tesla’s repeated claims that every car sold since 2016 had “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving” (FSD) were technically true at the time of sale under Tesla’s own evolving definition, but practically false as subsequent hardware upgrades (HW3 → HW4 → AI5) rendered earlier versions incapable of achieving the promised Level 4/5 autonomy. This bait-and-switch dynamic has cost owners thousands in FSD upgrades and eroded trust.* "When Elon Musk stated "I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%" in 2020, was that a fraudulent statement?" ***No, Elon Musk’s 2020 statement was not legally fraudulent*** *— but it was* ***recklessly false, misleading to investors, and a textbook example of securities fraud risk*** *under U.S. law. While Tesla narrowly escaped formal SEC charges, the claim contributed to* ***ongoing class-action lawsuits***\*,\* ***stock volatility***\*, and\* ***regulatory scrutiny***\*. It failed every objective test of Level 5 autonomy, and Tesla\* ***never came close*** *in 2021 — or by 2025.*

It's still something that's super easy to do and once doesn't require a humanoid robot. Alexa has existed for years and runs off smart speakers at this point. I'm sure they could put a rack of servers with some grok installation off stage and make this happen no problem. But you'll have analysts and Youtubers declaring it the most amazing feat of engineering ever and proof positive that Optimus can do useful things none the less.

Knowledge is specialized - but I feel like there's more going on. Media consolidation, bot armies on social media (Musk was early SEO and bot pioneer) and overall declining literacy are fostering a proliferation of millions of gullible marks whose credulity would probably shock W C Fields. Also, when the marks make money on the stock market, they have an incentive to perpetuate the con. You are correct that people conflate Musk's billions with genius - but the part that always shocked me was how quickly Musk went from a multi-millionaire to a billionaire to (allegedly) the world's wealthiest man. It was like 2 or 3 years pretty much all on vaporware stock pumps. Have you checked out the Boring Co sub? It's not super-active, but there is what appears to be a small group of real people (?) who believe Musk is "solving" traffic by putting cars in storm sewers. The only innovation is using a TBM not designed for road or transit tunnels - and ignoring all safety and environmental regulations. It's another area where you really shouldn't have to be a transit nerd or engineer to see that it's a scam.

Not to give Musk's recycled language model too much credit, but Mecha-Hitler does seem like a better lawyer than whatsisface - Elmo's divorce lawyer that he used for the Twitter lawsuit. Alex Somebody? Disappointed Grok didn't trot out the Corporate Puffery defense, though.

If by "charge themselves" you mean "plug them in by hand." Plugging them in yourself "just turned out to be easier. It's really more profound than it sounds!"

this guy figured it out 4 years ago... https://youtu.be/tS7JeKbpP-A?si=Cw1HBSk1LVmJ7Kq0

More Grok q & A: "Does tesla's safety report on autopilot and fsd use correct statistical methodologies?" *Tesla's safety reports do not employ fully correct statistical methodologies due to pervasive biases, unaddressed confounders, and non-standard comparisons that favor positive outcomes. While the raw fleet data offers valuable insights into system performance in controlled scenarios, the claims of being "9 times safer" (or similar) are misleading without proper controls and verification.*

You could get admitted to an institution speaking like Elon.

A couple of Elonversaries today: November 8, 2021: "*The Starship fleet is designed to achieve over 1000 times more payload to orbit than all other rockets on Earth combined. Almost no one understands this."* November 8, 2020: *"4D is essential for dynamically occluded objects, especially in large intersections with dense vehicle & pedestrian traffic. Frame rate & latency from frame to wheel vector change also important." -* I have no idea what it means, but its a nice pile of Technobabble.

Tommorow's Elonversary in 3 parts, from November 9, 2020 (Covid era): Part 1: Technoking makes a decree - *"Tesla makes the RNA Bioreactor that can* ***make vaccines / cures****. CureVac has version 2 in use. Version 3 is under development. I do expect this to become an* ***important product for the world****, but probably not financially material for Tesla"* Part 2: The crazy Gem Lady reacts - *"Elon, seriously, thanks for all that you do. Thanks for* ***leading with your heart*** *and never, ever stop. You're a* ***bright light*** *in this dark world."* *Part 3:* I ask Grok about it - *"Hey Grok,* ***did Tesla develop a vaccine*** *with curevac?" Answer "****No****,* ***Tesla did not develop a vaccine*** *with CureVac. The collaboration was focused on manufacturing technology to support CureVac's vaccine production, not on the R&D or creation of the vaccine itself...CureVac's CVnCoV advanced to Phase 2b trials but* ***underperformed (48% efficacy), leading to its discontinuation in late 2021.*** *CureVac has since pivoted to other mRNA candidates, like oncology therapies, but* ***no approved vaccines have emerged*** *from this specific effort."*

Whatever happened to gem lady anyways?

Elon just shared a video of an AI girlfriend telling him she loves him. https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1987087713204641988 He’s getting roasted on his own website for it.

4D is maintaining an actual continuous (over time) 3D model of the car's surroundings (object permanence basically). As for the latter babble, I guess he just means delay from video input to control output. If I were doing ADAS I'd want a perfect "4D" model of the environment, but with Elon's "end-to-end NN" dictum not sure they're even doing that now.

What an absolute looooooser. He's ultra unfathomably ungodly rich, but he'll always be so lame.

She's still active on social media, simping for Elon. Not sure if she's still writing for Cleantech or Teslarati.

he was married to the hot chick on HBO's Westworld -- twice.

"Hey Grok, do the cameras on a Tesla have the range and resolution to achieve SAE Level 5 Autonomous driving? Specifically, do the forward side looking cameras have enough range to properly see high speed traffic approaching from each side?" >No, the cameras on current Tesla vehicles do not have the range, resolution, or overall robustness to achieve SAE Level 5 autonomy on their own. SAE Level 5 requires full automation in all conditions (anywhere, anytime, any weather, without human intervention or fallback), and while Tesla's vision-only approach relies on neural networks trained on vast data, experts widely agree that cameras alone fall short due to limitations in sensor redundancy, adverse conditions (e.g., fog, heavy rain, glare), and edge-case reliability. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is currently rated SAE Level 2 (partial automation requiring constant driver supervision), and no production vehicle has reached Level 5 yet.

"After reviewing, the Reddit admin team found that the content wasn’t in violation of Reddit’s rules. As a result, the content has been restored and your ban or warning has been lifted." F simps