What would cause TSLA shares to drop?

Reality. And I’m afraid we’re fresh out of that.

An investor epiphany that the whole thing is a giant sham is the only thing that is going to pop the bubble. The stock is not driven by any sound fundamentals.. It's all science fantasy with smoke and mirrors.

Elon's Death. The stock price based on Elon Inc.

this all day long! if they fix autowipe and phantom the stock may be ok. that wont ever happen tho

If Elon stops manipulating the stock price reality will kick in. Which is why he is demanding a trillion dollars. It is probably costing him billions behind the scenes to keep the price up.

I have no doubt he is manipulating the stock, but he sure as fuck isn’t losing money doing it

Elon Musk would have to embrace climate change, and DEI

I don't know the inner machinations behind the TSLA stock. Very few people do. I do know that certain key individuals have decided to exit with their shares. I imagine others want to as well - they've made such massive returns, it's in their interest to secure them. It might be that investors are slowly exiting but doing so gently and taking steps to maximise their sales

We finally run out of greater fools, though that resource appears to be inexhaustible.

I’m getting cooked on TSLQ but I’m still holding till this POS crashes

When the financial environment flips from risk loving to risk averse, TSLA will be one of the furthest to fall.

Tesla is a meme stock, people have packed so much capital into it that they don't know how to back out. Since so many people got in when it was much lower, there's a very strong compulsion to hodl no matter what.

It would need to be valued as a car company. But it’s not. And it won’t be. That’s the whole trick. The more of an “everything” company it is: tech, ai, robotics, etc - the higher valued it will become. The biggest threat is if Tesla became valued as auto-only. And this probably happens if they lose Elmo. No elmo, no more ai. No more robotics. Which is crazy because Elmo already spun off the ai division. There’s a lot of overlap between his companies.

If Pension Funds start dumping if shareholders approve his compensation package. Others may follow. Depends on who hits the exits first. Some of Leon’s loans are using his Tesla stock as collateral. If it falls below a certain price. It’s possible he gets margin called. Which would sink the stock even further. It’s probably a reach but it is possible. One Pension some months back, sold all its holdings already. It’ll pop after the vote gets approved. Then possible a massive sell off after that. But again, who knows.

I agree. There would be a major correction and Tesla would probably be valued at a more realistic price.

The moment they're out of index funds it's lights out. So long they're there they get guarantees money by pension funds and such andnthe trading companies always hedge, generating even more stock sales. It'll take 3 or 4 consecutibe disastrous earning reports to get there.

If fElon forgot to wake up tomorrow the house of cards would collapse. Short of his removal from the equation I’m not sure anything would work. Maybe the total and utter destrucion off one of its gigafactories in the US or China would move the needle but I’m sure someone would find something positive.

Pretty much only Elon going to jail or overdosing

If he died this weekend I’d have buy orders on Monday for about 25% under reality prices because there would be a huge run on it that the price could go down even further than that.

Maybe the greatest fool will come? 🥳

Actually launching any of their snake oil products for anyone to see how unrealistic Musk's promises are. FSD will keep crashing, and even without that, the taxi business won't be very profitable. Optimus as a product is a liability minefield. Semi will be a joke compared to the competition. Roadster won't fly, and won't sell at the prices they'll demand.

Nope, as much as $TSLA has defied * Reality * Gravity * Common Sense * The Securities & Exchange Commission I will pass on investing any of my retirement funds.

Never, as long he comes up with wet dreams like flying cars and robot armies

More lawsuits that find FSD or AP at fault. More missed robotaxi dates. A major robotaxi accident. HW3 lawsuits.

In the next 6 months, the safety driver has to be removed from the robotaxi and a few robots have to start mowing people’s lawns! lol

A fatal accident caused by a Tesla in their nascent Robotaxi service when they have just a couple dozen cars in operation would be a big blow, and I’d guess could knock down the share price 10% or more overnight. It wouldn’t affect profits much, but it would be a bad omen for their promise of millions of driverless vehicles on public roads in the next two months.

Can't stop, won't stop. Loved the reverse split lol

Or if he departed the company for other reasons. That’s why he can demand such huge pay.

Which is crazy because most random Tesla employees would do a better job than Elon.

Elon is talking about flying Teslas now, so it has to be really hard to convince yourself that Tesla is committed to finishing products.  Elon is a child demanding money for daydreams.

Hidden amongst thousands of inane comments on Reddit is this gem. Thank you.

The new Tesla Roadster crashes on takeoff during its debut and kills Peter Thiel.

It's basically the ultimate meme stock, with a price untethered to reality. It's probably not crashing until Elon dies/goes to prison/is hospitalized.

Losing futures for th next quarter. Once the stock dry up he's worth nothing. Dudes swimming in debt.

Sanity

It’s insane. PE is 305. Revenue was DOWN 2.73% YOY. It was also less than revenue in 2023. Its share price should be 1/20th its current value.

It’s hard to imagine it going down now that they’re introducing flying car.

I hope Elon leaves. Demanding a trillions dollars in compensation is insane.

If the SEC wasn’t a neutered shell of itself…

It's a meme stock

“demanding money for daydreams” has such a nice lyricality to it I had to coin a word.

If sales go up

It is a meme share and has the same value as e.a. BTC

Most people own Tesla via index funds.

Actually it probably is some sort of infinite money hack. He has billions in loans on his stock and because of the high stock price he is probably paying 2-3% interest. Being rich he has access to investments that generate 5-10% easily. So he is basically just flipping it around to make money and then using that money to pump the stock. As the stock goes up he can refinance his loans for more money. Using that to repeat the cycle. As long as the stock doesn’t go down he has an infinite money hack.  To make it even more absurd because Musk has billions in loans from most of the major financial institutions, the investment firms are basically invested in Tesla for billions. They then provide absurd price targets and buy recommendations to keep the stock price up.  At this point the crash of Tesla could take down a few banks. The Tesla stock is basically worthless because if it ever gets to the point that the banks need to collect the collateral and sell it, the stock would tank. They would get pennies on the dollar.

Or rather a spite-stock, as in people are too spiteful to cut their losses for being Elon fanboys

Not even that. I think many know that it’s massively overvalued and might never reach the goals, but as long as the big guns stay in, it won’t drop significantly. Let’s see how long pension funds dare to hold the stocks when the company actually starts losing money. Like three actually negative earnings calls.

The stock isn’t where it is because of car production. They could own the entire car market and even then they would barely be worth what they are now.

Perhaps the biggest fish in the pond announcing it will produce kickass chips for Tesla's competition? Oh, wait no, NVIDIA already did that...

Elon's next OD

Tesla gets his $1 trillion bonus and stops bothering to manipulate the stock. Alternatively, Musk remove as CEO so he sells his stock and so stops manipulating it.

When the stock market bubble breaks, TSLA goes down hard. Many will be selling index funds and there aren't enough cultists with deep pockets to support the price. Next the margin calls hit. Hard to say how far it falls. However, it could take a while. It took years for the Internet Bubble to bust. Notice this doesn't depend on anyone losing confidence in Musk.

Probably the correct answer.  Once market sentiment in general turns, then everyone will look at actual fundamentals.

A market correction. If you look all the Tesla big drops are connected to a market correction. It usually even drops a little bit first. But I don’t think it would ever drop on its own, since it’s supported by all the ETFs, 401K, etc.

This, specifically falling out of the S&P500 for not meeting profitability criteria. Saying that I'd not be surprised if Tesla is given a pass on the profitablity requirements. 🙄 To be honest they gamed their way into the S&P early by strategically releasing carbon credits in such a way as to ensure they hit the profitability in strategic quarters. They may still be hoarding some, and if memory serves they still have some crypto that they can sell and crystalize gains into certain quarters to mask underlying trading losses. There's also the age old trick of channel stuffing, by "selling" products to related companies.

Yes, fraud exposure and a government going after them for it would be another vector. They're already selling products to related companies so there. And while reddit now hates musk(after having his balls firmly in their  collective mouth for a long long time) and can't wait for this to happen, there's nonsuchbinstant gratification. It'll take more than just sales being worse. It's not a fantasy or meme stock, that's not how this works the people are short sighted and reddit has contributed into getting musk where he is. It's a company with loads of cash for now, the index funds are forced to buy in and the traders will hedge, because they're not short sighted. All the predictions seen on tv or social media are bullshit since nobody can predict the future. If they could, they'd simply go and win the lottery. It'll take couple of quarters in the red, burning money, losing the cash available etc. Not just declining sales. While the maga wing are deliberately or naturally borderline mentally handicapped, the Democrats are huge huge drama queen's getting their news from click and rage bait channels just as bad a that bald wannabe mma guy. And the worst is, musk will still be very very rich even if tesla and his whole company structure goes bankrupt. Reddit and social media has made the man. They sucked up the visionary image faster than jonestown folks drank that koolaid. Some still do. Look no further than space x...because space blabla. All bs, and endless amount of bs and laymen thinking they understand things where they don't know what they don't know

The social media was astroturfed by Musk, before people knew astroturfing was even a thing. It was probably the smartest investment Elon made with his PayPal payout - literally paying people to post positive things about him/Tesla/spacex across all the social media platforms.

Not defending musknor tesla but their stock is driven by... market forces. A bit different than what you might deem as fundamentals. It's driven by what people are willing to pay for it. Who are these people. Not you. Not me. It's hedge and index funds. Do you realize that post iPo tesla dgaf about the stock price as far making money for them is concerned? They don't make money by selling stocks this is not how this works. It's unfortunately more complicated. He can raise more money etc using the stock price as collateral but the stock is driven by traders and speculators and once it hits spa500 then it's protected tier. But I am talking on reddit the bunch of arseholes who elevated musk to where he is now. You folks hating on him now won't fix nothing as you'll suck the balls of the next up ajd coming guy even deeper.

Well wether that's true or not, reddit and Airbnb came to be like that, having fake trustpikot reviews is part of etiquette today. Whatever it is, the people sucked it up and they'll suck it up again from the next musk.

When the Dems get back in power itll sink like a stone.

If they found out how bad Elmo is cooking the books

Better job in the sense of running a car company. Not as good a job at pumping the stock. Although there may be some apprentices in that department as well who have learned some of the key skills.

When you define “reality price” are you including all the liabilities created by the various lies fElon has spewed over the years?  People seem to think a competent management team is all Tesla needs. That doesn’t fix the fundamental flaws that have been glossed over by claims of *autonomy by the end of the year*.

Pennies? I’m thinking mils. Possibly fractions thereof.

So… you’re saying it’ll never happen?

A new cult leader with even bigger promises

Overdosing for Elon would mean becoming incontinent

Maybe some damaging revelations about his personal life. I’m honestly shocked more hasn’t been revealed. I know he pays people off, but at some point that can’t prevent people from leaking/sharing information.

PLTR , TSLA are not fundamental stocks; they are meme stocks. We always wonder who was buying pets.com during 99-00? People will ask in 25 years who was buying tsla and pltr .. it wont blow up at once, they will eventually take hot air off slowly in few years w.o crashing the entire market., Machines contril everything now.

At least pltr is growing quickly and has great profit margins. Tsla has falling revenues and its margins suck.

All companies valuation is ultimately based on their profits over the long term. This can be elastic based on growth or stability but at the end of the day, a sustained high growth of say 25% can only maintain a 25% increase in stock. Over the long term. Tesla peaked in 2022 and since then they have not really given any shareholders value. It just ups and down with money moving between shareholders. (Ignoring the billions the directors take in compensation which is significant). So when you say why doesn't it go up or down, well the reality is that it has been doing both and no real gains for 3 years now unless you pick and choose your dates.

When institutional investors start selling that means the last shoe has dropped and the shit holding the price up has hit the fan.

Nov 2022 - 195.97

And 400 in November 2022. If you pick dates you can show high gains. But also can show 60 percent losses. While the market as a whole has done very good in that time, Telsa has been a dog.

The average in nov 2022 is nowhere close.

Index funds are weighted based on market share and readjust fairly infrequently. They don't drive valuations. Active ETFs, hedge funds and other actively managed funds do play a significant role but so do retail investors. That includes individual owners that own hundreds of millions or even billions in stock, notably Elon himself. Who not only very clearly influences the stock price with his constant "puffery" but has an outsized direct influence by purchasing - look at the incredible amount his recent $1 billion purchase moved the stock value. Tesla has issued stock since the IPO, if not very recently. But even if they don't usually make earnings from the stock price they are still very visibly invested in the stock price. Listen to anything board director Robyn Denholm says and she will pretty much always lead with a goal of "delivering shareholder value." And Elon as CEO very frequently talks about the sky high market value he thinks Tesla will attain. His big share compensation package is even heavily predicated on that sky high valuation. It's obvious that in Tesla's eyes the stock is the product and the shareholders are the customer base. That is especially true for the board members who frequently cash in selling shares and Elon who is very clearly able to leverage the stock value into astronomical loans. TSLA's value is pretty much bankrolling all sorts of Elon's exorbitant spending projects, with his purchase of Twitter being perhaps the most notable example.

Now you are just doing an average. Point is, it has not been a good investment since then. Ups and downs. People seen wealth on paper increase and decrease. And some sold at the right time and some bought at the very wrong time. I suspect those that bough at 400 in 2022 are not doing well. My brothers friend brought at 460 last year and he is doing quite bad. Not sure if he sold but he does not talk about it now. I suspect anyone buying at this price now for a company that is seeing significant declining sales while sales increase for others and seeing even worse decaling profits is really not going to be happy in another 3 years. Tesla likely has 10 years of flat line stock prices till it can even come close to what their stock price is. Or their stock price will drop till it matches what they are able to sustain.

I think you're overestimating how many people own index funds. Not all 401k plans use them and outside investments are often in actively managed mutual funds or ETFs. Which can of course also include TSLA ownership but not all do. Also not all indexes include TSLA though I don't know how many people are investing in sector funds that don't.

The only way Is for elon to die from natural causes, him stepping out of the company, or people figuring out all its all a sham. Most of the value is tied to people believing in him to lead the company.

TSLA shares stay high for one reason: People like to trade it because it's extremely profitable to day trade. So, you'd simply need a few stagnant quarters of losses in the car business. The stock will go down, and then it won't be profitable to day trade. It's extremely simple.

Here’s my scenario for the stock to drop significantly: A few bad quarters in a row for Tesla’s bottom line, especially lower net income and shrinking free cash flow (FCF) numbers. The unique Q3 2025 (due to expiring US EV subsidies and incentives, as we all know) likely was their last “good” quarter (it wasn’t even that good given the quarter’s one-off nature!) for a long time to come. Q4 2025 therefore is the first of several bad quarters imo, 2026 will get worse for Tesla than 2025. Revenue could also drop further in 2026+, except for their growing Tesla Energy unit. But that unit is NOT large enough to make up for the damage in EV revenue (lack of new EV models, robotaxis still don’t work as advertised, Tesla is fully dependent on the aging Model Y as long as the CyberCab is not fully autonomous). All of the above could result in Tesla‘s stock imploding by 50% or more. Even 80% or more if or once investors look at their numbers in a sober way and ignore Elon’s constant lies and hyperbole. There is no growth engine left for Tesla in 2026+ (except for the aforementioned small Energy unit).

What did the Chair of the Board do with her shares?

It may take a few quarters, I see $40 The fact is, it’s still an EV company with many competitors, no more government subsidies and dated technology (400 V on a refresh c’mon). And we are in a big stock bubble. Remember last Feb?

Field of dreams.

Which brings up another issue. Who inherits his wealth? Whoever it is won't have his legend to carry him.

Considering the falling sales and lack of future prospects 1/20 is much too generous.

The only way a fatal accident will cause a big problem for Tesla is when someone rich or famous finally falls victim to one.

Stocks are profitable for day traders when they are volatile.

I wish it was simply the investors failing to correlate reality to the madness of Musk and his outlandish claims. The analysts and portfolio managers are part of the problem.

Yeah, it has a very high valuation, but still behaves like a high beta stock.

True. They are part of the corruption.

Any fund manager with TSLA holdings is either incompetent or corrupt.

Australia has a compulsory pension scheme called superannuation (aka super). At least 80% of all adult Australians own Tesla via index funds. It would account for up to 2% of all Australians' investment funds.

This board vote may be the catalyst. It a split decision, some board members think Tesla is a wrap without Musk others think it would be worth paying him a trillion dollars, can you believe that?

Was not aware, that's interesting. But I don't think it's much like that in the US.

Nothing…ever…

In Aussie, 12% of your wage is automatically deposited into a pension scheme of your choosing. Most people use not-for-profit "industry funds," eg HostPlus for restaurant and hotel workers or UniSuper for universities etc. Everything is automatic unless you specify you want something different. If you are 45 and under, you will be put into a "Balanced Fund" that is 70% growth and 30% defensive. International shares account for up to 25% of the entire portfolio. So even a modest $100,000 super balance would have up to $1000 worth of Tesla. Most adult Australians own Tesla shares.

In Europe especially battery manufacturers are struggling because of risk averse private capital. Although from a security perspective, less dependence on China is vital. Not sure how many Europeans own Tesla stock tho. I had some and made profits on them, but sold them when Musk started supporting Trump and before the corruption rally.

The quality also just sucks tbh

As many things could make them drop or make them pop, TSLA is a cult stock. Trade it with caution.

There will be fewer buyers after the company has a few quarters of losses, fewer people willing to gamble on upward movement. The stock will be less volatile with fewer buyers and it will go down.

Overall, the AI stock bubble is propping up the entirety of the economy right now. Like, straight up the entirety of the growth this year is just AI speculation / moneyswapping between the same top 10 AI/Chip companies, bar just a sliver. We're in stagflation right now and people are getting laid off in droves particularly low skilled and federal workers, it's having such a large impact the current admin is trying with all its might to contain the reports and coerce the FED to hike the inflation despite the risks. All this seems to just have happened in the past 7-8 months. When all this shit collapses in on it self, and it will unless AI somehow starts actually driving record profitability home within a year or two at this current rate, then the economy for the lower percentile of citizens will turn extremely risk averse and a full blown recession will hit. That's when TSLA will be gutted by all major institutions in favor of low p/e options on the stock side.

My protection is when their AV play starts to receive real investor scrutiny, let's say by quarterly results of July 2026. Now that the rubber is on the road, if they can't show meaningful L4 driverless rides in 2-3 metro areas (even just following Waymo's market growth with 100,000+ rides a week) and project their earnings from these rides into the future quarters, I think institutional shareholders will jump ship. AV and FSD have been the hopium for a while and they will need to bear fruit into the growth story. I say this as someone who is very skeptical of Optimus being a usable or high volume product before 2030. So in the intermediate time they really have to demonstrate some area of growth in autonomy. There are too many competitors out there that their only real advantage will be their manufacturing scale. Alternatively, Musk's pay package is struck down🤞🏻and the stock drops precipitously in the next 2 months as he liquidates his shares and moves his attention somewhere else.

Nothing. The market is corrupt. Smoke and mirrors

The reason the stock is up is because the entire market is up, and on account of Tesla's heavy weighting in the S&P 500 indexes, along with multiple forms of manipulation, it's incredibly difficult for the stock to decline while the market is moving up. However, this stock has been living in these conditions for some time now, and we've seen exactly what can cause the stock to topple, including underperforming the S&P 500. Simply put, if the market falls, Tesla tends to fall even faster. We saw this happen in early 2025. The stock market fell sharply, and Tesla fell even sharper. That's due to WHY Tesla's share price is so high right now... Negative news alone won't push this stock down on account that a lot of people are still jamming money into index funds, and given that Tesla's stock is highly weighted in those index funds, those funds have no choice but to buy Tesla stock. Mix that with Elon Musk, his friends, family, and cult like buy and hold forever institutional (like ARKK) and retail investors, some oddly massively sized call options which requires the option writer to buy the underlying asset (Tesla stock), and bears who get squeezed every time they attempt to short or buy puts, and you've got all the ingredients to keep pushing the stock up higher in a proverbial house of cards so long as the market keeps going up. Nothing in the stock's fundamentals or even guidance with their businesses that actually sell product, cars and battery storage, suggest this stock is valued anywhere close to what it's currently priced at. I've been saying that 10% of the company's market cap (probably even less now) is cars/battery storage, and the other 90% is vaporware and a manipulated stock. That's why the forward PE is currently 225... stating pretty bluntly that the financials do not actually represent the market cap, and most of the value of the company is based on claims of massive future profits... aka vaporware.. even as Musk misses timelines/deliverables repeatedly, over promising and underdelivering, proving that he's been blatantly lying through his teeth for years. When the market sells off, people pull their money out of index funds, which causes the index to sell the underlying assets. With Tesla being so heavily weighted, they have to sell a higher amount of Tesla stock. This causes a sharp turn down for Tesla, allowing shorts to finally get a foothold, which leads to the exact opposite of what happened on the way up. Longs panic and pull out their money. Tesla falls faster than the market, causing indexes to reweight Tesla lower, forcing them to sell more shares. All those call options get wiped out and the underlying assets are sold. The stock crashes.

In a rational investment world, TSLA would lead the Mag 7 down into a correction. Its a $30-50/sh company trading for $470. But TSLA's investors aren't rational, they're part of a cult. TSLA will decline as a result of a wider spread collapse of investor confidence in the AI bubble. After NVDA misses revenue estimates, or one of the several data center companies like Coreweave or Nebius can't find enough buyers for its debt. And its only in the flight from the sector that TSLA will approach its 2022 lows.

Yep, this -- the current value of TSLA is based entirely on the company CEO's ability to sell the idea of unlimited potential growth to the finance guys that make the decisions for institutional investors. The value will hold for as long as the sales pitch works.

I think I'd watch the crash then try to play the dead cat bounce.

$TSLA does whatever it wants. Bad earnings, still green. Good news, still dump. I just watch where the big players move. Bitget Onchain shows some interesting flow last days but honestly nobody knows until it happens

Butt boy not getting his trillion dollar way and pouting in a corner would probably be more effective than anyone realizes.

The Tesla board voting to give Elon $1 Trillion should have been the end of it.

>At this point the crash of Tesla could take down a few banks. The Tesla stock is basically worthless because if it ever gets to the point that the banks need to collect the collateral and sell it, the stock would tank. They would get pennies on the dollar.  At which point, Trump will step in and bail them all out with taxpayers money = too big to fail.