Tesla stock lower after Q3 earnings miss, minimal robotaxi updates

Elmo will start pumping it during earning calls.

I cannot believe TSLA misses. Elon was selling unsold Cybertrucks to his other companies (xAI and SpaceX) at FULL PRICE. That should be huge profits on the paper on Tesla's side.

Guessing no analysts are gonna ask about this on the earnings call

If anyone asked Google, Google will tell you. It is no longer a secret. Everybody knows it.

So they sold more cars than ever due to tax credit elimination, and that resulted in: * 37% lower net income * 5% less cars produced * 36% lower capex. Huge success, can't wait for the next quarter. :) But at least they included an ever growing "miles driven with FSD" chart, very impressive, never goes down. Ohh yeah, cause it's cumulative... :D

$42bn in cash? Sure, Jan.

Missed earning? Sales are down? No talk about taxis? Genius!! This is good for a 10% upside rally...it's going to the moon! (One day reality will hit, and it will hit hard, but I don't think it's today.)

Stock up 20% ! 😂

Pulled forward how much demand and still failed to meet earnings. What a shitshow. CEO definitely deserves a new trillion dollar pay deal.

Robotaxi "technology". 😅

Those would have been already factored into the analysts expectations, I'd assume.

I don’t know how this junk is only down 1.5% after hours. It pumped to the moon on nothing

The news came out on 10/13. Normally most analysts are not that quick to factor it in. And normally analysts would not anticipate such genius move by any CEO.

So you mean taxpayers are buying Cybertrucks at retail

But the Roadster 2 is out at the end of the year, right? right?

Nope. Private companies owned by Elon Musk were buying Cybertrucks. Private companies don't have to make such transactions public but somehow Google knows it! It is a genus way to boost TSLA revenue and earnings though.

WHAT ROBOTAXI?! There is no "Robotaxi". It's nothing but a mockup/tech demo and that's likely all it will ever be. There are no specs, there is no product, there is no revenue or profit. What do they mean "expansion"? You can't expand what doesn't exist. All they have are normal Teslas running shitty, half-baked "FSD" (lol) alpha software with human supervisors. How is the stock trading up or down on "Robotaxi expansion" news?

TSLA is cooked.  Elon is quiet, robot is paused, no robottaxi news, and they didn't warn the street their profits will significantly drop next quarter due to credits being eliminated. They know a severe storm is coming.  I'm here for it.

Just Junk

no reiteration of robotaxi serving half the country this year LOL

It’s a tactic he’s used for a decade, having one of his companies bail out the others. Wasn’t SpaceX on the hook for bonds or a loan to Tesla? And how SolarCity and Tesla basically only merged (and were saved) because the promise that millions of homes would have a revolutionary solar roof, yet there’s only been a few installed 10 years later? What are the chances Tesla reports a loss in Q4? I still don’t see a market for humanoid robots in the next 5 years, probably more like 10. Does anyone besides a fanboy REALLY think Tesla is going to be turning a profit on these things in the next few years? Is the vision of robots, robotaxi, and AI really compelling? Others do robots better, others already do taxis/rideshare, and autonomous taxis, and there are dozens of other AI companies that have massive head starts in AI and are looking at it without a meddlesome owner in the way. I once owned Tesla stock, but I still think the solid vision of the company was as an energy company that was pushing solar, batteries for home and grid-stabilization, EV’s, charging networks, etc. They were about Green energy, and making progress for the world away from dependence on fossil fuels. And I’m no far left Greeny, just a political moderate from a generation where everyone cares about the environment.

There's no such thing as a RoboTaxi

Which year though?

Crazy that they weren't able to juice the earnings more somehow. They used to be able to do it in the past. And they had a guaranteed quarterly revenue beat from the sudden death of the US EV tax credit. It will be very interesting to see how much they made from US tax credits - while those were already gone, I'm betting a lot of companies already committed to buying some and Stellantis probably had to pay a penalty to get out of their contract.

"Crazy that they weren't able to juice the earnings more somehow" There is no free lunch, they can "juice things up" by cannibalizing the company, but it will backfire quickly. They sold their own cybertrucks to spaceX (I am sure they really needed it), decreased capex, produced 5% less cars etc and they still barely had any profit. Likely without these shenanigans the bottom line would be significantly worse.

Is this finally the beginning of the end?

Those sales to "other companies" will likely find their way onto the taxpayers' books.

“Robot army” counter? Just got on, dude sounds so damn dumb

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Private companies that can bill things to government contracts.

a.k.a. FSD, their ultimate piece of vaporware. Keep your eye on the pea. This is a shell game.

Not xAI. Probably SpaceX just because they have government contracts.

Don't you know by now, that everything is coming "next year."

Im sure he meant 2035 if cornered legally.

Listening to the conference investor call. I blurt laughed to listen to him prattling on about not being able to control the robot army. The funniest thing I have heard in a while.

They would have dropped anyway just due to L. Ron's political antics poisoning his main demographic against him.

How’s the restaurant doing?

Just a robotaxi, from Waymo.

>revolutionary solar roof In 2023, they had only done 3,000 installations. This was 7 years after they said they were aiming for 1,000 per week.

Exactly

This conference call tells me that we may not be in the same reality. The man is clearly unwell.

Can give shit to musk n stuff for alot of shit but all his spacex contracts are fixed he cant bill it to the goverment, i mean they could up their future contracts to pay for the new expenditures but the current contracts are already done

Yep…I was actually shocked to find earlier this year that they’d done any. It was based on this promise that the companies merged. I did some reading online, and it was shocking to read that Musk basically made the entire product up because he knew both companies were insolvent, and he knew Tesla was heavily backed by SpaceX and would bring it down as well. So he went live and blatantly lied about the readiness of a product that wowed investors. That was his Edison Machine moment, only he was never caught for it.

This is what I want to know, how much epic bacon did they sell?  That's some juicy profit margins

Elmo : Give me One Trillion 👌

Down 3.4% as of right now.

I hope reality sets in for this junk. Even w the tax credit buying spree, they still fell short. I’m not leaving till I hit 10x on my short position. My $ in this going to Valhalla or the 🌙!

All but the full-throated cultists it seems.

Also solar city was his brothers, iirc

They don’t even have permits to use fsd with a driver, iirc

Impossible

**Dan Ives just said $700-800 price target, because he said so, tesla stock price will go up? is he god?**

Fast Food money bro. Elon is the next Roy Kroc.

Bro, thats not true. They have an app

His cousin’s

They sold all those cybertrucks to Spacex.

Dan Ives was on TV talking about Tesla is back before he even listened to the earnings call. What a clown.

What? Share price _down?_ Did the share price _actually follow reality_ there for a brief moment? Now _that’s_ news! 😂

On this Q3 report the "regulatory credits" was $417 million with total profit of $1.3 billion. So if they manage to match this quarters delivers, they're going to have 30% drop in profit QoQ. 55% drop YoY.

So, are they going to be launching them all soon? To Mars I guess?

Roy Kroc *of shit?*

Elon is definitely serving up some chicken of the cave BS if he is a restauranteur

Numbers check out, there were only 3 weeks in 2023, right?

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TSLA is up 36% since the last earnings report till now. Since it is a miss, I anticipate it goes down 20% in the next two days.

Gross Margins are down to 18% from 19.8% versus Q3 last year. Operating margin, which includes operational costs, is down to 5.8% from 10.8% y/y. Net income (GAAP), the important number, was $1.37 billion and is down 37% y/y even with a 7% increase in vehicle sales in the quarter y/y and a large increase in energy storage product sales y/y. It's certainly possible Tesla sold enough cars in the US in Q3 that qualified for the tax credit where the $7500 tax credit times the number of sales exceeded $1.37 billion. In other words, without the federal EV tax credit, they may have lost money. This means Q4 is really not looking good given the certainty of a significant decline in sales and very likely price cuts. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ General thoughts on this situation... This is all keeping in mind that demand was higher in the quarter due to a large **one-time** demand pull forward driven by the end of the federal EV tax credit. While there may be 'some' vehicles delivered in Q4 that still get the tax credit (ordered in Q3), it won't be anywhere near the volumes actually sold in Q3. All new orders from 10/1 onwards are no longer eligible for the federal tax credit, meaning their prices all went up. Econ 101, with everything else being equal, higher prices means lower demand. Combine those higher prices with the demand pull forward into Q3, and we have the ingredients for a steep decline in demand in Q4, and even into Q1-Q2 '26. Tesla has already tried to stymie that demand decline with decontented model 3 and Y "standard" trims, but both of these trims are more expensive than the prior lowest "premium" trims were through 9/30 when including the tax credit. So, Tesla is trying to convince people to pay a higher price for significantly downgraded vehicles. The Premium model 3 trims and the RWD premium trim have all gone up in price by $7500 y/y, The Premium model Y AWD trim has increased by $8500. The Model Y Performance has increased in price by $13,500 y/y. Model S has gone up in price by $20k, and the Model X base has gone up $27,500, with the Plaid trim going up by $20k. The base Cybertruck is up $7500, and the "Cyberbeast" is up $15k y/y. Higher prices, along with ongoing rigorous competition from the other OEMs at highly competitive prices (and not just for EVs), means lower demand for Tesla. Period. Mix that with demand pull forward, and demand in Q4 should be significantly lower than Q3, and likely **much** lower than Q4 '24. Throw in that gas prices are in decline, and that means all EV models being sold in the US will get significantly more competition from gas vehicle options. (sadly) That especially goes for pickup trucks... in case anyone actually believed Cybertruck sales would ever pickup in the US. (Maybe in Saudi Arabia though...) Tesla will either have to cut prices to maintain higher sell through, or cut production to maintain higher prices. My guess is they do a bit from column A and a bit from column B, along with very likely building up inventory in the quarter in the hopes that Trump reinstates the federal tax credits. (Should i say "hope" when Musk bought himself into this administration with $270 million of campaign contributions / paying people to register to vote ^(\*cough\* for Trump \*cough\*)) Tesla's now attempting to cut prices on their premium vehicles through interest rate cuts and lease deals, and even if that somehow (not likely) draws in buyers, they'll still have to contend with demand pull forward into Q3 that'll reduce demand in at least Q4.. probably Q1-Q2 in '26 as well. From what I've seen people saying, the buyout offers on these vehicles will be horrible for the customer, so it seems Tesla wants all those leases coming back to them at the end of the term, probably in the hopes of a new EV tax credit on used cars that they can take advantage of. Then of course if the economy weakens at all, and the job market weakens at all, that'll put additional pressure on the entire automotive industry in the US, including Tesla. ...

Dude, their Shareholder Deck for future production says "We continue to evolve and augment our product lineup with a focus on cost, scale and future monetization opportunities via services powered by our AI software. We remain focused on growing our sales volumes through a differentiated and efficiently managed product portfolio, which includes leveraging and optimizing our existing production capacity before building new factories and production lines. Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026. First generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of volume production". This shit is comedy. No new models and volume production for a robot that is worthless. Tesla has truly lost the plot.

2. Presuming Tesla sold 200k vehicles in the US in Q4 '24, I can see them losing half of their US sales in the quarter versus last year, bringing their quarterly deliveries down to 395k or less. That would bring their annual sales to 1.613 million or less, a drop of about 10% y/y or more. I also expect their regulatory income to be cut by at least 30%, bringing this 100% profit revenue down from $692 million in Q4 '24 to about $484 million in Q4 '25. But don't worry folks, none of this matters. Only 10% or less of Tesla's value is represented by their automotive and energy businesses. 90% is from robotaxis and autonomous robot vaporware, and the value of that speculation going up and up and up. \_\_\_\_\_\_ With the incredible performance of this company's ~~income from real tangible products~~... vaporware speculation... everyone be sure to vote for Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package, and the purchase of xAI in an all shares sale... for which Musk owns \~58% of xAI, which will net him a massive amount of Tesla shares and greater control of Tesla.

Looks like a clown... talks like a clown... analyzes like a clown... Oh, I know! Let's get him on all of the big business news channels! Him and Cathie Wood.

Sounds like those sales were announced in Q4. With how horrible Q4 numbers are likely to be, they need every little boost in sales numbers they can get.

>minimal robotaxi updates Because there haven't been any improvements to their "Full Self Driving" package.

And we know they won’t match this quarters deliveries again

I'm not sure why it was down. The only reason I bought puts on Tesla is because I need some puts for macro-economic headwinds. I figured: when those arrive, Tesla will go down by 2x compared to other companies. Tesla will go down faster than SPY when macroeconomic headwinds hit, that's for sure. My calls are on Nebius by the way. I bought today, I suspected it'd go down. Most of my money is watching from the sideline 👀

Musk's beard looks like pubes that he glued on.

So my hot take on Tesla is that * We all know the value is over inflated * it's over inflated to make it look attractive for a buyout like a startup * They've been holding onto that idea for too long and now they realize they actually have to mature into a company and they're stuck at that high price.

Rule 9 Posts about bans from other subs and meta posts about other subreddits or discussion of their ban-bot and the Streisand Effect it caused across reddit, Twitter, and Tesla and other EV brand owners forums and Facebook groups is not permitted.

Isn’t it now “half of the country by the end of next year”?

Never mind. Robotaxi will conquer the world, next week.

It is only down 2.7%. For Tesla this is practically flat for the day.

Gen tree?

Also the “robotaxi *technology*” is the operative phrase there. They’re going to announce and repurpose slack production of y, and cyber truck and call it a win, not a terrible sign.

You mean no new crazy stories?

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Earnings are elastic when you do that. I could delay some expenses but then the following month, they have to be reported. At the end of the day there is only so long you can legally delay some costs or income.

I love Teslurr!

But wasn’t he on the board and a large shareholder of it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-22/musk-hijacks-tesla-earnings-call-to-pitch-1-trillion-pay-plan

Waymo?

I would say that fElon not being quiet is part of the problem here. Tesla would be in a much better position (and more widely liked) if he shuffled off and let sober/serious people focus on running the company.

"will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth" They say this every time! It's "uhm we couldn't do/sell XYZ because we prepare for the big push"... Doesn't Elon know MORE THAN ANYONE about manufacturing? How come his factories are not set up super efficient from the start? Or years ago?? This drags and drags... It's basically a lazy student who "will start studying real hard... Tomorrow" You can guess how high his test scores end up being.

"Tesla also said lower regulatory emissions credit revenue weighed on profitability." Those are the 40%. It's not nor was it ever profitable without handouts from the American tax payers. Massive handouts at that!

Stock go down=bad news. Bad news=good for stock. Stock go up. Phase 3 is profit.

The regulatory credits are from the pockets of other car manufacturers. Tesla has been the world's largest outsourced compliance car company for years. The change is now there are no rules to comply with, and so no demand to outsource compliance cars.

>For the quarter, Tesla reported Q3 revenue of $28.01 billion vs $26.27 billion expected, per Bloomberg, a 12% jump from the $25.18 billion reported a year ago. Tesla posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50 vs $0.54 estimated, translating to EBITDA of $4.23 billion vs $3.78 billion expected. Operating profit fell 40% to $1.624 billion from a year ago. The day some regulators is allowed to look closely at Tesla's books, I suspect Enron level book cooking is going to be discovered.

Did not realise in regards to the last several earnings there have been earnings misses here. The only reason it had record revenues was due to the EV tax credit. Seems cannot deliver each earnings to the targets set, only reason the stock price is so high is due to Elon pumping money himself with his followers. So if shareholders agree to his pay deal likely his crazy targets won't get delivered however he probably thinks he will get enough of his followers to pump it more making him money. Problem now everyone is seeing through the BS. However without Musk the stock could tank as well but back to a reasonable price, whatever the shareholders agree it is a lose lose situation for them.

Think the chief grifter is now getting caught out and people are seeing through the BS

Get the impression a lot are holding bags at high prices

PonyAI done something in China

Everyone will have one running whilst they sleep, earning free money 🤣

Should be down 99.99% if reality were real in the stonk market.

Fucking hope so, this bullshit has gone on waaaay too long.

Any news in the call about removing safety drivers?

Tesla is now green, how is that possible?

Nope. It's up... BuYtHeDiP

Some very jealous people here!

Exactly.  They typed a lot without saying anything at all.  They are the employee looking busy at work, without actually working.   They aren't making any semis.  There is zero supporting infrastructure, from repair to service to sales.  Rural Americans will reject any metrics.  There will be zero global customers due to its size.   Optimus is DOA.  No manufacturers are buying it with out serious testing or validation.  Some will buy it for the PR to carry boxes, but that will be it.  It's the next CyberTruck. Cheap Tesla is cheap.  I'm here for it.

There are two possibilities. One is this is a euphoric bubble trading on the expectation that it’s a meme that only goes up and delusion tech bros. The other is someone is doing large scale stock manipulation with the blessing of the current administration since the SEC has been all but burned to the ground.

Yeah

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