TSLA Terathread - For the week of Oct 20

Good afternoon here is this week's Terathread

It seems like we're back in the doldrums of Tesla doing basically nothing for another large period of time. No new products, and the same old pumps. Maybe the Semi will get trotted out again.

The Cybertruck and Cybercab are the only "significant" things that they have done in nearly 4 years. Before that it was just car sales...but as the sales have gone down Tesla shifted towards a class leader in robotics I've honestly stopped looking at TSLA because it literally just goes up regardless

Multiple reports on Tesla FSD subreddit that V14, which seems to be going wide now, is, to be polite, a disappointment. There is no march of nines going on, this approach has run its course.

It’s hilarious how Tesla apologists are commenting “videos or it didn’t happen” on every post that trashes V14 on the Tesla FSD subreddit (which is mostly composed of fans anyway). These guys would rather die/ kill someone and/ or have their networth go to 0 than acknowledge something that’s so obvious smh

Semi 50k units next year, confirmed.

Two year Elonversary: *"I think we'll end up with roughly* ***0.25 million Cybertrucks a yea****r, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year...I think we'll probably reach it sometime* ***in 2025****."*

As if the mods didn’t ban all but die hard years ago.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1o5flpl/comment/nk1bcp8](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1o5flpl/comment/nk1bcp8)

It'll be interesting to see if they make 250 k total. Which these days seems unlikely.

1289897124912u

Sentience v2 Next year ™️

Can we really say that Cybercab is something Tesla has "done"? Seems kind of not done to me...

At the current rate they'd need to sell for 10+ years to reach 250k total

Considering they will probably never sell these outside the US, and they're widely hated in the US, I think odds are quite low unless they keep it on life support forever like the X.

It's exactly like chatGPT5. You will get slightly different versions of this forever unless ML makes a real breakthrough.

They spent at least a week painting tires

Elon Musk Net-Favorables: All: -11% Men: +9% Women: -29% GOP: +47% IND: -24% DEM: -67% Echelon / Oct 20, 2025

No worries. V15 will blow your mind.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin for a chart All he has to do is stay out of the public eye for some amount of time and his polling goes from radioactive negative to mostly negative. People forget so easily. I do legitimately wonder if this is the result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election which was very successful at framing as "vs Musk". For some reason "vs Trump" doesn't hit as hard as it should, but "vs Musk" is a lot more unifying. The powers that be in the GOP must have enticed him to shut his mouth.

People don’t care about blatant fraud as long as they are personally profiting. That will change in a hurry when the share price starts free falling.

A couple of 5 year Elonversaries tomorrow: *"Generally, at Tesla, we really aim to make the* ***car that is delivered better than the car that is unveiled.*** *Because it always drive me crazy, car companies would unveil these awesome looking cars, like, great, you can't wait until they make that. And then the car they actual make is like much worse, and — but it's just — it's like really disappointing? So man, we always want to make the car that we deliver be better than the car we unveil. And* ***that's the goal with the Cybertruck****. So there's like a lot of small improvements compared to what was unveiled. I think it's going to be* ***better than what we showed****."* LOL *"small improvements"* is South African slang for: lower payload capacity, less range, thinner sheet metal, of course it can't float, the exoskeleton was marketing hype you rubes, and it costs over twice as much as advertised. *"But* ***all transport will go autonomous****, yes, so* ***including Semi.*** *So it will be pretty significant."*

I wish they didn't sell them outside of the states. See them here in Canada and I know a handful of other countries.

When are they going to pull the plug on that shitbox?? And how will it be spun?? Elmo was spin it, saying something like it will free up factory and employment capacity to focus on their robots that there isn't a market for. Stock increases 15%

It's both the public having no memory and the evil and incompetence of Musk being vastly overshadowed by that of the Trump administration. It's kind of remarkable how bad of a decision it was for Musk to prominently tie himself to the administration. All he had to do is write a check to get what he wanted but no, he had to get up there swing a chainsaw around and throw out a few Nazi salutes so he could he could pretend he was Fox Mulder for a few months trying to unravel deep state conspiracies that never existed in the first place.

Yup, its a cult

> kill someone and/ or have their networth go to 0 Well, I dont think they'd rather have their networth go to zero, in fact this is the exact opposite. They invested all they have and beyond in that scam and deep down they know it, but now they have to roll with it. There is a psychological factor that most people will tend to defend teeth out a bad investment, because they don't want to appear as idiots.

Hardware 6.0 is going to be WILD. It's goingt o enable FULL autonomy. Safer than humans.

The price is staying in this range so they can split the shares soon.

Not to steal u/Lacrewpandora's thunder, but here is another Elonversary: [https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1054434449725652992](https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1054434449725652992) >First operational, high-speed tunnel still set for Chicago, pending regulatory approvals. \-October 22, 2018

Yeah but it's those pesky regulators again halting innovation

More stock splits than models of cars... The stock truly is the product

As I type this, TSLA is $441...it was $407 almost 4 years ago. TSLA may be unreasonably over-priced with an absurd P/E ratio, but its not really "growing". I'm not sure a split would be necessary in this range. (Side note, in this world where fractional shares are bought and sold, I don't understand why splits still exist at all). Anyway, TSLA has gained less than 10% over a 4 year period, just to put the stonk in perspective.

13k Teslas getting recalled: [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-recall-nearly-13000-us-vehicles-over-battery-risk-2025-10-22/](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-recall-nearly-13000-us-vehicles-over-battery-risk-2025-10-22/) Well...unless, of course, Reuters is lying again.

5 year Elonversary today: *"Yes. If all goes well, we'll be able to do some* ***Cybertruck deliveries*** *toward the end of next year (****2021****), yes. So it's difficult to predict. I would say there's probably* ***a lot of deliveries in '22*** *and some deliveries toward the end of next year if things go well."* TSLA eventually delivered a handful of these in November 2023. I have to ask: If you run a car company, and have some sort of understanding of what equipment has been installed/what lines have been set up, don't you ***know*** when production will start. Especially if you happen to be the world's biggest expert in manufacturing? I'm starting to think Elon just lies to ~~pump the stonk price~~ *save humanity*.

Hey, I accidentally approved this without noticng the link...which the auto-mod blocks. Can you take down the Xitter link:?

Welp, my thunder has been taken...but some commentary on TBC. The Chicago Tunnel Bluff was never about actually building a tunnel - it was about amping up dumb VC investors for a $120 million funding round 9 months later. TBC illustrates Musk's unique ability to print money out of thin air with hype - currently valued at $6-$7 billion, TBC sits around the 40th spot in highest valued construction comapnies ***in the world***...with AFAICT no real project in its backlog. But what the company lacks in real projects, it more than makes up for in hype: *150 mph automous cars in Vegas* *Tunnel under the Miami River in 6 months* *5 mile tunnel in Fort Lauderdale* *Tunnel from South Padre to Boca Chica* *Verbal Government Approval from DC to Baltimore* *Dodger Stadium tunnel* *San Bernardino airport tunnel* *Tunnel at speeds up to 7 miles per day!* TBC has raised almost $1 billion total...Musk just selling off 1/6th of his imaginary company to a bunch of idiots. It really is a never ending money loop for him

Still holding my 2 March puts from 3 months ago (bought immediately before the last EC). We've heard and seen *nothing* to falsify my thesis yet we're up $100 (they needed the stock to go DOWN $100 LOL) . . . in fact, the 'cheaper Model Y' announcement was a total joke of an effort intended for EC dressing and not actual market share preservation. We've been flat for a month, since I added one last put for April. Same strike, half the cost of my March puts : (

this is a rare actual recall at least. I hate it when the Feds refer to required software updates as 'recalls'.

splits make it cheaper to buy call contracts

Why? Software recalls come with the same customer notification and reporting requirements back to NHTSA. How else would NHTSA know that TSLA has notified its customers of the safety recall in a proper manner, or know how many cars have been fixed, if not for the recall process? Are you just concerned that the term "recall" is bad press that might temporarily affect the stonk price? Who cares about that when these are safety related items.

no, since I don't know and I don't care how many 'recalls' my 2023 Model Y has had over the past two years. They were mandated updates, not recalls. Unlike my 2018 LEAF recalls, which required taking the car in to fix a couple of things.

> half the cost of my March puts I seriously suggest you calculate the Delta, Theta, and IV. The actual cost you're paying is IV/Theta, especially if you plan to hold these things for months. Delta gives you an idea of "equivalent to a share". In all cases, I've run the math already and can comfortably say that TSLA options are very high IV with very high theta-decay, to the point that you need something like a 2-year LEAP before its similar to the cost of a short. I don't think there's any money buying options with TSLA. **Maybe** writing options if you can stand the huge risks. You have to consider all sides to these trades. --------- IV is already found on many charts (ex: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options/). Delta and Theta are often found automatically calculated in trading applications like ThinkOrSwim. I know there's various Javascript / web calculators for Delta/Theta, so its as easy as finding a calculator you trust, and just clicking a button for "Calculate TSLA Strike 400 Dated May" to get the Greeks these days.

yup . . . but 2021-22 and 2024-25 were colossal faceplants from $400 so I figure my odds are 50-50 for Q1 to repeat that LOL. this is just play money (two quarters' divvie payments in this account) so I'm doing this more for the fun of it; I don't believe Elon's BS now and I want to be paid for this disbelief.

"I don't know and I don't care" These are safety recalls. I'd sure be interested to know for sure that they've been completed. But to each their own - if you don't care about your own safety, that's fine...but somebody else is concerned about your safety for you: NHTSA. So they have a very regimented set of notification and reporting requirements - with the moniker "recall". Whether or not you have to physically drive to a dealership makes no difference whatsoever - its still a "recall" so they can track things. I'm still perplexed as to why you don't like the name. What precisely is so objectionable about calling a recall, well: a recall?

Looks like Tesla's own list makes this update/recall distinction: https://www.tesla.com/support/annual-and-recall-service I get updates pushed to the car about once a month. I assume the safety-related updates are just rolled into the patches. Kinda like how my Mac and iOS stuff works.

I assume you're being obtuse. Last I checked, a Mac can't get you killed...hence there is no safety oversight agency. Here's a software recall for the Incel Camino: [https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUCK/PU%25252FCC/AWD#recalls](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUCK/PU%25252FCC/AWD#recalls) Go ahead and fish around in the documents. As part of the RECALL process, TSLA has to: \- Identify the problem \- Identify the population of cars affected \- Identify the percentage of said population likely to experience a failure \- Notify all their dealerships of the recall \- Send a draft notification letter to NHTSA for approval \- snail mail recall notices to property owners \- submit 8 successive quarterly reports detailing recall penetration \- submit 3 annual reports detailing recall penetration \- Oh yeah...TSLA also has to fix the safety problem. Why it matters to you as to how they do that, I'll never know...but I hope you can understand that is a very smallish part of this multi-year process. All of that "stuff" has to have a name. Presently its called a "safety recall". You don't like that name (yet conspicuoulsy you refuse to articulate as to why). But whatever you reasoning is, what do you propose to call this long lists of steps that TSLA has to take, if not a "Safety Recall"?

still named wrong. Nothing's been recalled with the mandated software updates. And my Mac getting hacked on a zeroday can fuck my shit up much more than losing power steering at 0mph.

>Nothing's been recalled Who gets to define that term? Branch Elonians or NHTSA? NHTSA's definintion is below. 1. [What's a Recall and When Is It Necessary?](https://vinrcl.safercar.gov/vin/faq.jsp#) * A recall is issued when a manufacturer or NHTSA determines that a vehicle, equipment, car seat, or tire creates an unreasonable safety risk or fails to meet minimum safety standards. Manufacturers are required to fix the problem by repairing it, replacing it, offering a refund, or in rare cases repurchasing the vehicle. The United States Code for Motor Vehicle Safety (Title 49, Chapter 301) defines motor vehicle safety as "the performance of a motor vehicle or motor vehicle equipment in a way that protects the public against unreasonable risk of accidents occurring because of the design, construction, or performance of a motor vehicle, and against unreasonable risk of death or injury in an accident, and includes nonoperational safety of a motor vehicle." A defect includes "any defect in performance, construction, a component, or material of a motor vehicle or motor vehicle equipment." Generally, a safety defect is defined as a problem that exists in a motor vehicle or item of motor vehicle equipment that: * **poses a risk to motor vehicle safety, and** * **may exist in a group of vehicles of the same design or manufacture, or items of equipment of the same type and manufacture.**

If you want to short TSLA that's fine. But there are so many ways to do so. You can buy Puts, you can write calls, you can short sell. You can strike at $400, strike at $300, strike at $600. You can expire next week, you can expire next year, you can expire in 2027. That doesn't even get into combo strategies like straddles, spreads or butterflies. Even if we focus on the simplest of trades you have dozens of possibilities. Did you actually do any analysis to determine which of these possible trades are best? I understand that it's a bit of fun so maybe you don't want to sweat the details. But these are the details that matter if you are trying to maximize the chance to make money. Technique matters.

my thesis is looking at Elon's promises for Q4 to not materialize, and a deeper shut-off (via CRA and OBBB) to the regulatory credits than the facile analyst opinions we were getting at the end of Q2. Obviously I could have just waited until now to buy the puts, but once in I didn't want to be 'stopped out' by BS moves up as long as the above thesis was still operative (and it is). I just naively assume everything is equally unfairly priced so if I play this game I should have a good thesis and target it. Hence the March/April puts. The market initially moved with me 10% after the EC but obviously there's a lot of manipulation going on to keep it high-flying. Yet for all their efforts the fucker can in fact crash. Not a year ago it went from these levels to $220 in single quarter. Plus this short is a hedge against my 100% long position everywhere else. I'm thinning my monthly 401k buys through April now but need some crash protection somewhere : )

NASA announced that it is going to start looking at SpaceX rivals for future contracts. Will this affect Tesla selling Cybertrucks to SpaceX or do you think this announcement is BECAUSE of them already buying up unsold inventory to prop up sales figures to Shareholders of TSLA ?

[https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-safety-report-autopilot-nine-times-safer-humans-q3-2025/](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-safety-report-autopilot-nine-times-safer-humans-q3-2025/) >In Q3 2025, we recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology >The figure for Q3 2025 is slightly lower than the one [that Tesla released in Q3 2024](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-publishes-q3-2024-vehicle-safety-report/), which eclipsed 7 million miles between accidents for drivers using Autopilot technology. By Tesla's own statistics - which are very likely flawed to begin with - Autopilot is regressing.

Definitely proof positive there's no deep state or cigarette smoking man if the morons in charge could get there in the first place.

*TESLA 3Q ADJ EPS 50C, EST. 54C *TESLA 3Q FREE CASH FLOW $3.99B, EST. $1.25B *TESLA 3Q GROSS MARGIN 18%, EST. 17.2% *TESLA 3Q OPER INCOME $1.62B, EST. $1.65B

Idiot analysts and retail investors will ignore the earnings release and keep buying.

~$5B/yr profit rate. Regulatory credits still $400M+/qtr : ( Puts the company around Ford ($50B), Target ($42B) in terms of NI to shareholders

>very likely flawed to begin with Correct. Here’s why this so-called "safety data" is garbage: - It’s not Autopilot vs humans. It’s Autopilot + human supervision vs humans. Totally different scenario. - Crashes where the airbag or seat belt restraints don’t deploy are excluded. - Crashes where Autopilot is disengaged right before impact conveniently don’t count. - The data is self-reported by Tesla with no independent verification. - Autopilot is used mostly on highways - already the safest driving environments - yet Tesla compares it to all human-driven miles, including city streets and rural roads. The bigger question is who gives a shit about autopilot? I thought FSD was the real money maker? Where is the safety data for these "robotaxis"?

>It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth, the actual results will depend on a variety of factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts and production ramp at our factories. Thanks for the word salad.

A company with continually declining earnings is still trading at a 245 P/E ratio.

\#8 by market cap \#100+ by earnings https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/

9 of the top 10 by market cap have successful businesses that drive a ton of revenue. 1 is based entirely on vibes and endless promises.

> and production ramp at our factories. Ramp down I assume.

So just looking through the slide deck... Actual operating margins were surprisingly weak given their sales volume and the fact that they did pull in a health amount of regulatory credits this quarter. Apparently gross margins were pretty strong but actual OPEX is way up due to substantially higher R&D costs and restructuring costs. On the plus side of the company they did have very strong cash flows due to a substantial pull down in inventory but production volumes were also ~22k vehicle lower with the bulk of that being the S, X and CT. Those production and sales volume confirms what everyone already knew about Tesla losing share in the high end luxury market and the CT being an absolutely massive failure on every level imaginable. Q4 is probably going to be awful, but right now it seems like the company's overwhelming priority remains getting Musk's compensation package approved at any cost.

they mentioned ~$200M in tariff hit for vehicle (and ~$200M for batteries)

Yeah I have no idea what kind of line of thought even enables it. How do they think Trump won the election if there was some group of masterminds behind all this? Like... they planned for every contingency except him being particularly loud and rude or something? For Musk specifically I kind of love how he could never ever explain where he thought the money was at any point too. He was just confident it had to be there somewhere, put his credibility and personal brand on the line and then sat down in an office and told a bunch of wanna be founders to figure it all out. I'm honestly surprised he made it through childhood without jumping off a bridge because he was confident he could fly or something equally as stupid.

> Q4 is probably going to be awful, but right now it seems like the company's overwhelming priority remains getting Musk's compensation package approved at any cost. If this "blowout" quarter was meant to justify that pay package, it sure came in with a pretty loud meh. The only highlight was FCF from selling cars rotting on lots from the tax credit ending.

> NASA announced that it is going to start looking at SpaceX rivals for future contracts. In this very specific case, Musk isn't the only rich asshole in the world. Continuing to hitch the space program (if there even is one) to the tin turkey will just get more embarrassing over time.

So around 1% higher gross margins for auto if they weren't present. I guess another thing that does highlight is that the services segment earned about $2%0M more in gross profit when compared to 2024 Q4 too.

Guys the car is going to PARK ITSELF. Revolutionary stuff

I don't think this quarter was really anything planned it's largely US tax and regulatory policy doing it. If anything I expect the BoD to spin it the other way, that BEVs are facing headwinds and it's more important than ever to diversify revenue streams, that Musk is the only one with the technical expertise to actually get the Robotaxi and Optimus projects to the point where they're contributing significant revenues, and finally by extension that his pay package must be approved to make that happen.

Diversify revenue streams into areas that have very little potential to make even mild revenue in the near future, if ever. Truly only one man can do that.

Woah, that would've been a new feature only like 15 years ago.

Yeah Robyn Denholm might as well just tattoo "Keep the dream alive" to her forehead at this point. I think pretty much everyone involved is just trying to keep the stock price up and the hype going in hopes that somehow some breakthrough will materialize and solve their problems for them.

It is sort of an act of faith among the cult that Tesla / Musk will crack AGI. I used to lurk on the Tesla subs and read Teslarati everyday for entertainment (sad, I know...) and I would see variations on this tenet constantly. The funny thing to me is that Tesla would usher in the singularity and then use this momentous tech to... drive cars. Even Elmo must have realized how dumb "sentient" cars is as a sci-fi idea so now Tesla will be making sentient humanoid robots, too.

I think for the BOD, its all about their options. Many of them have options becoming available to them every quarter - which they waste no time in converting the cold hard cash. They're incentivized to keep the plates spinning until as long as possible - with absolutely no care whatsoever about what the husk of TSLA will look like when the plates all fall to the floor. But I can't imagine that anyone on the BOD actually believes FSD will ever "work".

Saves you literally 30 seconds!

Wait, earnings missed targets and the stock went down? Are Tesla investors turning rational on us? It should be going up after Elon promised that the Robotaxis would fly 2 million Optimus robots and all his baby mamas to Mars by Thanksgiving. I’m really disappointed in this reaction by Tesla investors. 😂😂😂

Welp, we now know why Technoking needs his $$$. He's just gotta be in control of that ROBOT ARMY!!!!: >My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous **robot army**, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That's my biggest concern. That is really the only thing I'm trying to address with this. It's called compensation, but **it's not like I'm going to go spend the money**. It's just, if we **build this robot army,** do I have at least a strong influence over that **robot army**, not current control, but a strong influence? That's what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don't feel comfortable wielding that **robot army** if I don't have at least a **strong influence...** >...I just don't feel comfortable building a **robot army** here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis who have no freaking clue. I mean, those guys are **corporate terrorists**. The problem, yeah. Let me explain, like, the core problem here is that so many of the index funds, passive funds, vote along the lines of whatever Glass Lewis and ISS recommend. They've made many terrible recommendations in the past. If those recommendations had been followed, they would have been extremely destructive to the future of the company. >But if you've got passive funds that essentially defer responsibility for the vote to Glass Lewis and ISS, then you can have extremely disastrous consequences for a publicly traded company if too much of the publicly traded company is controlled by index funds. It's de facto controlled by Glass Lewis and ISS. This is a fundamental problem for corporate governance. They're not voting along the lines that are actually good for shareholders. That's the big issue. That's what it comes down to. ISS, Glass Lewis, **corporate terrorism.**

~~275X~~ ~~293X P/E~~ 300X P/E

Don't Teslas already park themselves but no one ever uses that feature because it always hits the car next to it?

the stupid thing is there's no reason to put this R&D direction into Tesla, other than the shareholders can afford the cash leak and dilution.

Even if we took the laughable idea that Tesla was capable of building a robot army in the near future or ever, it seems like it's in all of our best interest that a drug addled psychopathic Nazi had no influence over it.

I mean ultimately the board hasn't been independent for years at this point. I do think their own compensation obviously factors in as the stock price is completely buoyed by AI hope/hype and the idea that Elon Musk is some kind of super genius that's just going to make it all work out. As much as I dislike Musk there's no way the stock price wouldn't collapse if he leaves because of that, and frankly he knows it which is why he's been threatening to do just that lately as the final voting day nears.

Yeah Tesla has always been a bit of cult that plays into Elon Musk's messiah complex. Musk is always going to save the world or advance human existence in some fashion. Each and every time it's also exclusively Musk that can do it too. Only Elon Musk can solve global warming, he doesn't even want to be the one doing it either, it's just his burden because literally no one else is capable of doing it. Same with going to Mars, apparently if we don't launch a rocket in 10 years Humanity is doomed to die on earth or something. Then if you move away from Tesla there's his other claims about 'saving free speech' (conservative echo chamber), saving "western civilization" (white people) and saving the US budget (wants some justification for his taxes to be lower). See Elon Musk never does anything for money in that world. Even him asking for $1T isn't for money, he needs control of the company and apparently it's impossible to do that with a Meta style arrangement where he maintains a voting only interest in the company isn't paid an ungodly amount of money. Same thing with buying his cousin's failing solar company, had to do it to make Tesla truly a renewable energy company. Of course now that there's money to be made on AI he's got no trouble running diesel generators 24/7 and put a candidate into office who hates renewables. Musk also argued that global warming was something to worry about in 50 to 100 years and his followers shrugged that crap off too. There's no consistency other that Elon Musk is going to save everyone and make them wealthy. Even if he says ridiculously stupid things or is zonked out of his mind on drugs for months on end he's definitely the guy to do it and the cult will routinely ignore every competing company or alternative option out there if confronted with it. It's composed of a weird mix of low information technology evangelists and futurists who love the idea of this amazing new future but have no interest in actually looking any information critical of possibility of such a thing. It's perfect for a guy like Musk who will just utter some word salad of technical terms that he says justifies his vision of tomorrow and Tesla's ability to achieve it.

I wish Tesla shareholders would wake up and realize that this man is a total lunatic and a danger to humanity. Unfortunately I have zero faith that they vote in a way they think could hurt the share price even if they know it's the right thing to do.

This has got to be close to the end for Tesla, sales will be half this quarter, no credits, nothing in the pipeline that will show tangible revenue soon. And a lot of expenses to come with closing plants and showrooms.

Random redditor says the Semi manufacturing facility is [close to completion.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Reno/comments/1odtg3h/tesla_semi_plant/)

Yes but that's all tangible things tied to reality, have you not thought of the coming soon promises?

Well Elon is the Golden Goose. If they vote to remove him then Tesla would essentially admit the claims over the last decade are false. Without all of the AI and autonomy, it's just another car company that makes some batteries on the side. So to investors no Elon means TSLA is just another Ford.

Yep, I was just thinking about this the other day - if Musk doesn't get his comp package, he'll just "burn it all down"...sell all his TSLA stonk with no warning and announce he's taking his once in a generation mind somewhere else. Stonk would tank.

No Elonversaries this day, the 23rd of October...but I've got a hunch there will be a pile of 1 year Elonversaries next year - based on the earnings call. (Side note - I haven't heard the audio yet, but based on the transcript, Technoking was higher than usual). A taste: *"We are also on the cusp of something really tremendous with* ***Optimus****, which I think is likely to be, has the potential to be, the* ***biggest product of all time****."* *"we believe with* ***Optimus*** *and self-driving, we can actually create a world where there is* ***no poverty****, where everyone has* ***access to the finest medical care****."* And I do have a question. I'm willing to admit when I'm out of my depth, and I have no idea what any of this means...but is this bullshit? *"we can actually fit AI five in a half reticle and with good margin for traces from the memory to the Tesla accelerators, the ARM CPU cores, and the PCI blocks... AI five will be the best performance per watt, maybe by a factor of two or three, and best performance per dollar for AI, maybe by a factor of 10."*

Per yesterday's earnings call: ***Lars Moravy:*** *production plan and schedule. The factory is going on schedule. We've completed the building and are installing the equipment now. We've got our fleet of validation trucks driving on the road. We'll have a larger build towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year.*  Color me skeptical though. We were supposed to have 50k of these things built in 2024...before they even had a factory to build them in...so, well, TSLA lies about the semi every single time its mentioned.

nah, they've got $40B of cash on hand. Looks like Shanghai can do 800k/yr, Fremont 400k, and 200k from Austin and Berlin for the rest of the decade without losing money. But this should be a < $150 stock not > $450

Doubt. The U.S. doesn't even account for half of their deliveries (\~190k of their \~497k). It's not like their sales in the U.S. will go to zero - still plenty of tech bros who want to drive a Nazimobile. But maybe that drops U.S. sales to \~100k in Q4? Europe has been locked in for a bit at \~60k average per quarter, with seasonal variation. Then they channel stuff the rest of the world (see: South Korea and Turkey in Q3, for example), but the potential to do that is limited. China is around 170k/quarter. So I'd put the O/U in Q4 around 400k (which, to be clear, is still really bad). Putting no effort in, my guess on net income would be \~$500m Q4, then around break even Q1, then likely into a loss by 2Q25. That, or they lay off 20-30% of their workforce.

he's saying AI5 vector processor is not a dominant part of the chip package, there's space for the CPUs etc.

Optimus might do something "useful" in the next two months!

Shades of Dojo dominating the world of AI chips.

No, they don’t. They have what they claim are $40B in cash and cash equivalents. But we only have their word on what those “equivalents” are. For all we know they’re a bunch of Musk bobbleheads valued at $10M each.

I only caught snippets but I think one of the things that caught my attention was that the robots wouldn't need batteries or something (I think he said that they would be tethered to an outlet or something).  I would have to listen to it again but there was a ton of nonsense from the little bit I heard

I saw that in the transcript...he was droning on about the "utility" of the robot increasing productivity by a factor of a gazillion...and, gasp!!!, if you made them stationary and plugged them into the wall, they would be even more productive!!! He really is the Edison of our time.

They are not going to sell anywhere that many cars, they will be lucky to sell 250k per quarter here on in.

Q2: “I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.” Q3: "We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year." The top 10 metro areas by population in the U.S. encompass <25% of the total U.S. population. In one quarter, Count Dooku \*HALVED\* the goal of robotaxis by the end of the year. Of course, the 8-10 metro areas thing is just another bullshit promise.

I wonder if he has hacked the options market somehow, no way this should clawing back its losses.

Golden goose? What does he do that a sane, reasonable CEO won’t? Better at lying and gross exaggerations/promises?

I’ve been writing 2week puts for a while now. Not because I think the company is valued well, but because I am pretty sure Elon is pumping the stock. So this is my way to take a piece of the pie.

Yes exactly that.

So sorry still over a year away from volume production and that will naturally become sometime in 2027. So a casual decade after the announcement before they *claim* to be in actual production. But remember in 2017 they could "convoy and beat the price or rail"... Sure Elon anything you say

This was supposed to be their best quarter with demand pulled forward. Q4 will be interesting.

To be fair, the semi production is light years ahead of the Roadster unveiled that same day.

No doubt these "Robotaxis" will have ~~drivers~~ *safety concierges*.

“Expanded Austin area three times” in yesterdays call became “tripled Austin service” in people’s minds

Analysis of the earnings call...what were the investors analysts asking about: 1. Robotaxi fleet size and timeline 2. Demand for battery storage 3. Optimus development 4. Samsung Chip deal 5. Should Tesla incentivize new vehicle purchase instead of paying to upgrade HW3 to HW4? 6. When will self driving Semi be produced 7. Would expanding to 3 million units sacrifice profits for volume 8. Some question about differentiating Tesla's AI competencies 9. Another question about distinguishing between TSLA's AI efforts 10. When will safety driver be pulled from Grifto-Taxi 11. Difference between FSD 14 and FSD 13 12. Production and supply chain for Optimus And that's about it. Maybe 2 out of 12 questions tangentially touched on vehicle production (5 and 7), absolutely no questions about new models outside of imaginary cybercabs...a word search for "Roadster" produces zero results for the entire call...the Model Y gets a few mentions, but zero hits on Model 3 or Cybertruck. Conclusions: Technoking has his flock well trained. Like an Obi Wan Kenobi Jedi mind trick, he's got investors and analysts singing from the same hymnal: *TSLA is not a car company, TSLA is not a car company...* Fun fact: 3/4 of their revenue came from car sales and 1/8 came from "Services and Other" which is mostly tied to cars.

They're there just to serve you snacks, refreshers and entertain you with a delightful conversation.

The pulled forward demand cleared their inventory of 50k old cars...they'll never be able to pull that rabbit out of a hat again. Next quarter could be brutal...unless of course SpaceX starts buying up even more of TSLA's inventory.

TSLA is not valued as a car company. Arguably, the 2020 run up was pricing in 2m/yr run rate. $1.5T is pricing in Teslas everywhere

Chuckle...I think I read a review where they said the driver practically plays mute, trying not to draw attention to his existence. We live in strange times.

Back to green. World is normal again.

Yup. We joke about it going up on bad news, but it fucking well does...

I looked this morning and just thought - that makes sense. And now it's actually up on the day. I know this stock makes no sense, but come on...

unreal squeeze going on. Big block trades going through. Rumors its Elon.

I'm throwing my puts in the trash, was a nice try. Fuck that shit head musk. He'll go down at some point and I am young and healthy enough to celebrate his downfall even if it's decades away.

And here I thought it was the fundamentals.

>Dan Ives doubles down on Tesla as **“the most undervalued AI name,”** reiterating his bullish thesis and leaving a Street-high $600 price target intact. > Tesla stock trades at a p/e ratio is stretched **262x forward non-GAAP earnings**. You can't make this shit up - TSLA has no meaningful AI. The cars can't drive themselves and likely never will. Likewise their robot can barely serve popcorn at their shitty restaurant. The P/E is headed for 300, but it's still undervalued.

Counterpoint: Optimus can point you to where you can find a Coke!!!

\`Whew...things were getting weird there for a minute.

Anybody who tried shorting under $400 has had their head handed to them. Disciplined shorters just have to stand aside in this dynamic

And you can slowly follow the clanker to the breakroom

I don't know how anyone takes this guy seriously when he keeps raising his targets despite Tesla never actually improving its position in any material way.

I finally read through the Earnings Call from last night and one thing is quite clear - Elon & his minions think their investors are idiots.

Also, they could have literally one car in each of these metro areas and still declare success, it is such a low bar.  If it is going to be so successful, they should report the revenue from robotaxis as a separate line item (I assume that hasn't happened given how small it is).  Also, you would think investors would want to how much money is coming in from this (not that financials really matter)

Never mind. The “buy-the-dip” idiots are back in. Still on the Crazy Train. We should suggest to congress that meme stocks be regulated differently due to the lack of transparency in their pricing. Since they don’t follow the normal rules that were established by the SEC to promote investor transparency, they should be treated more like a crypto. I hate that I have exposure to this lunatic stock in my portfolios because it’s part of so many etfs and mutual funds.

+$35B market cap add today on more promises pulled from his butt. Sure, why not For owners of pre-split shares, TSLA gained $150 today

Maybe one of the few things he gets right.

he's not wrong.

7 is hilarious. Tesla is sacrificing margin to try to stay over 1.5 million in sales. How do think doubling sales would go?

The fantasy is that once FSD works, everybody will want a TSLA...and as well all know, functioning FSD is right around the corner!!!

6 year Elonversary tomorrow: *"I do -- while it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a* ***feature-complete Full Self-Driving*** *feature* ***this year****. So, it's not for sure, but it appears to be on track for at least an early access release of a* ***fully functional Full Self-Driving*** *by the end of t****his year****." -* Griftimus Maximus, Oct 24, 2019 Its times like these when I wish I wasn't a non-rocket landing luddite who can't even conjugate S-curves...I live a less fulfilled life because I fail to understand the hidden 5d chess genius it takes to understand what "next year" really means. Time to take a night class in South African slang, I guess. But no matter, I'm sure FSD will work Next Year^(TM).

one take is Elon is very worried he comp plan won't pass.

I believe it is very possible Tesla reports losses in 2026. Stale lineup, no new cars, competition, no EV subsidies, no more emissions credits, a lot of big legal cases (including CA DMV to be announced in late Nov which is very possible Tesla will lose) HW 3 lawsuits. More problems is TX law is clear - Level 4 approved for all driverless taxis while FDS remains Level 2. Rushing out driverless FSD or taxis runs a huge risk of being revealed as dangerous, deadly and far from safe. Waymo took years to get people comfortable with a safe system. Tesla to keep the share price up will rush it and the amount of damage with reputation will set it back years, if you can say it's even made any progress up to this point

One of my good friends is the largest indy compensation consultant. He was called by Tesla board member who does compensation on the first absurd comp plan. He told me the guy said "this is what Elon wants.... " my friend who has consulted the major companies and has in the past told people like Steve Jobs that he would not sign off on a one off gift of $500m unless it was in a Q to be voted on, (that never went anywhere btw). My friend told the Tesla board member he would not sign off on Elon's comp plan and so they found a different comp consultant who signed off on it. My friend told me then, the board will do anything Elon wants and that is not what a normal board does. Nothing is normal here. And anyone notice Robyn comes out of her Aussie shell ONLY when she needs to pitch Elon's comp plans? What a fucking joke of a company.

Same old gamma squeeze.

maybe he was talking Jupiter-years

It definitely seems to be a golden age for con-artists. There are a lot of factors at play, but I think Musk and Trump are probably the first to really harness the power of social media. Of course, Trump had a TV show where he pretended to be a successful businessman, and Musk had a well-funded PR team (and a complicit media landscape) crafting his image as a real-life Tony Stark for years. But both have essentially been winging it for years now and it hasn't seemed to dent their popularity with their hardcore fans. Neither one could be described as broadly charismatic in the tradional sense. But huge numbers of people seem to believe. These are tough times. Even people who claim not to worry about global warming must be suffering a little cognitive dissonance as the effects become too obvious to ignore. People who claim to offer simple solutions to complex problems will always find an audience. Musk was barely on my radar, and then when the Hyperloop mania started up, I started looking into Tesla after thinking Musk was either a con-man or delusional. Hyperloop was beyond ridiculous, afterall. I know it's been retconned as some sort of canny attempt to derail CA HSR, but I got the sense Musk thought it was possible if people just threw enough money at it. You know, like brain chips, and FSD and Mars colonies. And sentient androids, lol.

Dan Ives is a security fraudster and was fined by the SEC. Info which is redundant by just looking at him.

He's burnt pretty much all goodwill (and then some) and Tesla is declining. Plus it's a ludicrous package. Why exactly would any institutional holders vote for the insanity? He's already got a vast amount of wealth tied up in TSLA and probably leveraged to the gills. Does any serious bagholder think he's going to "leave" and stop pumping?

Barring something unforeseen happening, they are absolutely on the way to reporting losses. Maybe they'll shutdown the Europe factory or something.

IIRC, Denholm's entire purpose was supposed to be a check on Musk's power. After he committed securities fraud with "420 secured", part of the settlement with the SEC was Musk stepped down as chairman, and a supposedly independent Denholm was added. I don't think it work out as expected.

I think it could take until the end of 2026 for the credit revenue to really dry up. They'll still get it for sales in Europe, and they likely have contracts with US automakers that didn't expire on Oct 1, so they'll keep selling what's under contract. Also, the cadence of credits has never been directly proportional to the overall vehicle market or Tesla's own sales - leading me to believe TSLA has had the ability to "bank" these credits and not necessarily recognize the revenue from them in the same quarter they're earned - if true, its hard to know how big that "bank" is. I do think sales will continue to decline, as will revenue and margin...with this present quarter being particularly brutal after all the pulled forward demand from last quarter gets offset. So look for a 2026Q1 headline of "Happy Days are Here Again", after that quarter does marginally better than 2025Q4.

>Why exactly would any institutional holders vote for the insanity? IMHO, they're too twisted up in this whole mess. The explicit threat from Musk is he'll take his toys and go home if he doesn't get his $$. Musk pretends that threat means his Giga-Brain won't be available for TSLA to tap anymore...but the *real* threat is fund managers wake up one morning to find a stack of Form 4s, with Musk having suddenly dumped 1/5 of the company's float in an instant. He's got them by the balls.

When you are above tha law, why would you do anything else? Except for actually having a moral.

Huge tranches bought yesterday - by Edolf, we assume. Watch for a Form 4 to drop Monday.

What happens with the board when this Enron times 20 collapses? After the 420 buyout fraud the board was essentially uninsurable and Musk stepped in and "promised" coverage out of his own pocket. What that will mean when the board is sued will be exciting to observe but I guess the phrase "Musked" will be used a lot.

Also from that Earnings Call: >And then, one last item is that tomorrow afternoon, we will be releasing **Version 3 of the Tesla Solar Roof.** That's the integrated solar panels integrated with the roof. So that's -- I think this is a great product. Version 1 and 2 where we're still sort of figuring things out. **Version 3, I think, is finally ready for the big time.** And so we're scaling up production of the Version 3 solar tower roof at our buffalo Gigafactory. And I think this product is going to be incredible. Zach: >GAAP automotive gross margin improved sequentially to 22.8% and over 20% excluding regulatory credits.  Good God, they're down to 15.4% in Q3 2025. >In the long term, **I expect Tesla Energy to be of the same or roughly the same size as Tesla's automotive sector or business.** This is the most underappreciated group. I think it could be bigger, but it's certainly of a similar magnitude to Tesla Solar. Meaning, if you take Tesla Solar plus battery stuff, Tesla Energy is, I think, the least appreciated element. >I don't think we're going to need to lower the price of FSD. I expect the price of FSD to increase slowly as the functionality and capability improve.  Oops. >And obviously there's credits in the US are really not -- the credit situation not particularly strong for obvious reasons, which we think is not great for the future, but anyway that's the way it is. In Europe, there's much more of a sensitivity to the environment, but we're not counting on some big windfall, maybe it will be good, maybe not, we don't know.  Hmmm, Elon, did you help to eliminate those regulatory credits in the U.S. with your spending in 2024? >I think the Tesla Cyber Truck is our best product ever.

Out of curiousity. . . Curious if there are like minded folks to me here. \#1) I would love to see Elon succeed. It would be awesome if he accomplished his goals. \#2) I don't believe a word he says. I think the Hyperloop, $1 tunnel rides, and $30,000 annual profit for each Tesla owner are proof of his lies. . . But basically I don't trust anything.

If you pit the bitcoin chart next to the tesla chart today since 2.30, they are identical. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is somehow linked to bitcoin.

That's too soon. More like Neptune years!

A coke or the coke, the video wasn't clear. Could be liquid could be powder.

I think that's why the robot was initially confused - "we don't talk about that in front of company do we?...Oh...*that* kind of coke."

Recalls can reveal sales data TSLA tries to hide. Oct 11 recall affects 63,619 Incel Caminos Feb 27 recall affects 46,096 Divorced Dad Dumpsters So in a span of 226 days, TSLA produced 17,523 Cyberflops...actually more than I expected at around 7k units per quarter...of course this is production - not necessarily sales. But wow this means S and X are dead and buried...2025Q3 "other" deliveries was 15,933 - and that includes the Cybertruck. And 2025Q2 "other" was 10,394 deliveries. I can't believe it, but the Incel Camino is surely outselling the Model X and the Model S...possibly outselling them combined.

3) His public statements are not his ulterior motives. Eg I believe he wants robots and starships, but not for “humanity” per se, but using all that tech to bring back a trillion dollar asteroid to earth orbit

Good way to reverse the market metagame as needed $1B to him is like $1k to me

[https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUCK](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUCK) Is it good for the CT to have 9 recalls and 51 TSBs in under two years?

They have sold \~20,500 S/X combined in 2025, through Sept 30.

Just spitballing Q4 delivs... \-US: 160k in Qs 3 & 4 2024 each, potentially \~190k in 3Q2025. Of course, demand is down overall in 2025, so let's say they pulled forward 30k of sales that would have otherwise happened in Q4. U.S. sales were down 5% 1H25, so...my math is 160k \* 95%, for 152k, but 30k of those went early in 3Q. So **U.S**. I'm predicting **122k.** \-China: YTD is down about 6% from 2024. I'll round up Q4 to 5% down since they do have the new Model Y. That would mean about **188k in China**. \-Europe: YTD is down about 28% from 2024, but trending better recently. Last year they saw a 6.6% jump from Q3 to Q4. So I'll say **70k in Europe**. \-ROW: who the heck knows. South Korea and Turkey were huge anomalies in Q3, resulting in Tesla's largest ever ROW deliveries for a quarter by some 20k, which was Q2 of this year and also set a record. This is where Tesla can channel stuff and do some weird stuff, imo. I will say it drops back to 40k, but it's such a wildcard. **Total**: 420k, of course.

Elmo is pumping himself.

So TSLA down today but Nasdaq up. Not like there's any news since yesterday either.  Just seems random.

Holy shit! Ford is up 13% and Tesla is down 4%

Wait, so we have a PE of around 300 and a drug using fascist CEO who’s crying for his $1 trillion dollar paycheck? Somehow I don’t see the valuation.

The numbers are not backing up the valuation.

Tesla lost more market cap than all of Ford’s market cap Still a trillion too high but I’ll take what they give me

Delivery math: First a quote from Technoking to shareholders: "we anticipate continuing to **grow** our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average **50% a year as far into the future as we can see**" - October 2022 Ok, lets look at total deliveries by year: 2022: 1,313,851 2023: 1,808,581 ...not bad, 38% 2024: 1,789,226 ...hmmm, that's a negative number, albeit just 1% 2025: so far 1,217,902 Now Technogrifter told investors they'd be at 4,434,247 at the end of 2025, yet my crystal ball tells me 2025 will once again show negative growth. So how bad will it be? My guess is around 1,650,000...over a 5% sales drop. In terms of revenue, using $40k per unit, Musk only ~~lied~~ ***puffed*** to his investors to the tune of **$111 Billion!!!** this year. Oh well, I'm sure TSLA is working hard on new models to spur more car sales...because, you know: they're a car company and all. And surely TSLA sales won't drop again in 2026...

1.6M for the year sounds about right. Not great, not terrible

They will be producing 25% of what they forecast, and sales will continue to decline. Powerwall recalls, Cybertruck recalls, Model 3 recalls. Massive sales and manufacturing overheads. No profits and nothing promising, a p/e of 270 that is only going to get worse and a toxic CEO. Who is seriously buying this stock now? Only Elmo and something to do with bitcoin.

> It would be awesome if he accomplished his goals. In a vacuum, yes. But those goals enabling a drug addled nazi is definitely *not* a good thing.

It is terrible when the company is valued at 50 times more than Mercedes who make 4m cars and a profit.

In this scenario he's a massive loser as well. It still seems farfetched. Then again, with the status of that man's brain, who knows.

If my calcs are right, he owns around $175 billion in TSLA...the last time he sold, he did it with no warning and just dumped it on the market. He could cash out and pledge the accounts towards his lenders. If he did it before TSLA's eventual collapse, he'll be able to push the narrative that he was too important for them to lose, etc. If he doesn't get his $1 trillion package, what's his alternative? Keep endlessly pumping the stock with questionably legal statements for free? I dunno. He's so erratic, I think fund managers have to consider it a possibility.

I don't now how he could get that kind of value out of TSLA without crashing it entirely first no matter what scheme he cooks up, vs his normal approach of slowly siphoning value out. Plus he has a heck of a lot of loyalists who also have a ton of TSLA as well. He could definitely get out with a large amount of billions... but it seems not worth it at all. But yes, it's definitely a possibility.

I mean, it's good that they sold enough that it matters?

https://imgur.com/a/kdGCktV

1 year Elonversay tomorrow: *"The cycle times, like the units per hour of the Cybercab line, it is -- like this is just really something special. I mean, this is -- will be half order of magnitude better than other car manufacturing lines, like -- not even the same league is what I'm saying, not in the same league. So, it's -- and I said like several years ago that maybe the most -- the hottest Tesla product probably will be the battery. You can't just, like, buy a factory."* Admittedly I can't track what the hell he's saying, but I'm pretty sure whatever he's talking about never happened.

everytime he flaps his face his net worth jumps several (if not many) billions of dollars. Must be addicting.

Model Y inventory went to zero late last month at my location (two hours from the Fremont factory) but now AFAICT they've got 12 truckloads of Model Ys in inventory after just one month. They're going to have to stop the factory. I should pop by the dealer location to confirm the #s LOL.

Except for the fact that if you want to believe rumors something like 90 percent of the cash is trapped in China. If you really want to look at the rumors Tesla has burned through most of their available cash. The cybertruck plant cost Tesla something like 2 billion The largest aluminum machines alone cost something like 100 million.

https://insideevs.com/news/767939/tesla-regulatory-credit-11-billion/

11 billion disappears really quickly when. You spend billions on products that are either flopping or don't exist Billions spent on dojo 1 A 10 million square foot building to produce the cybertruck. Let alone all of Teslas other failed projects and you see a company short on cash. No new cars in development. Cancled factories. No new hiring growth.

Europe is averaging 8-10k per month, they will be lucky to sell 100k in Europe next year, everybody here hates Elmo.

They sold nearly 65k in Q3. No need to state false information here.

That was quick. It is still possible that they are all sold. Keep in mind that anyone who ORDERED their car on the last day of 2025Q3 still gets the EV tax credit. And since inventory was probably low the first week of 2025Q4, there should still be deliveries of those late orders happening right now.

Every time I read news about the new electric vehicles I would never read without the comment said that Tesla is better. Pretty. Sick. About. That.

Well I was just looking at Tesla's inventory listings, so they're not sold : ) 72 Model Ys and 52 Model 3s . . . that's a month's worth of inventory at 2025's Q1-Q3 sales pace LOL (Tesla sold 1300 3/Ys in my county Q1-Q3)

If this is happening everywhere, then Tesla will be cashflow negative in Q4. No wonder that the bottom tier for Musk's new $1 trillion bonus is 1.3 million car deliveries per year (compared to ~1.8 million in 2024) and the bottom tier still pays out ~$30 billion in stock to Elon Musk.

It isnt False info. [https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/aug/28/tesla-sales-in-europe-slump-byd-new-car-registrations-more-than-triple-elon-musk](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/aug/28/tesla-sales-in-europe-slump-byd-new-car-registrations-more-than-triple-elon-musk)

1.3m cars is only around $50bn in sales, so they plan to pay a bonus of $30bn on $50bn in sales? Some profit margin that.

You are a willing idiot, then? https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-europe-registration-stats.61651/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1nnid81/comment/ngglica I told you a month ago Sept would be much higher than August. You didn't believe me. Now we have the results and voila, I was right. Now you're doubling down on being wrong.  Wonder why.

Wait - Technoking gets a $30 billion bonus, if sales drop by a third? Why am i even surprised at this point?

The first tier of the new compensation plan = 1.3M sales and the stock rising by an average of 3% per year.

Its like Elon is twirling around a pole on Stage 2, and the BOD are making it rain. Some corporate governance.

Im not doubling down at all, the sales have been declining all year and will continue to do so, that Septemeber number is the anomally. They are 8-10k per month for the rest of the year st best.

Rounding here: \-Jan 10k \-Feb 16k \-Mar 28k \-Apr 7k \-May 14k \-Jun 35k \-Jul 9k \-Aug 15k \-Sep 40k Sorry, Tesla will do 60k+ in Europe in Q4. No idea why you keep posting false information. Btw, it's still bad compared to when they were averaging 80k-90k+ per quarter just a few years ago. You can highlight that sales decline as bad without looking like a moron by posting blatantly wrong info. EDIT - got a reply from u/Far_Addition1210 but he seems to have blocked me or deleted his account? Here it is: || || |[](https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fuser%2FFar_Addition1210%2F%3F$deep_link=true%26correlation_id=4f676629-3bf0-547c-879b-183cd270f779%26ref=email_comment_reply%26ref_campaign=email_comment_reply%26ref_source=email/1/0100019a231ddff4-7323377e-3c97-464b-b066-b41771bbf442-000000/bUmprucsPzrUr8H7hpwDgBB8lbJa2x3IqaU4XS_EgVs=427)[**u/Far\_Addition1210**](https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fuser%2FFar_Addition1210%2F%3F$deep_link=true%26correlation_id=4f676629-3bf0-547c-879b-183cd270f779%26ref=email_comment_reply%26ref_campaign=email_comment_reply%26ref_source=email/2/0100019a231ddff4-7323377e-3c97-464b-b066-b41771bbf442-000000/fgamg6a_vqmiVV_wny3m2d2hSn0N6SwyVbQrGNmMgEw=427) replied to your comment in [r/RealTesla](https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FRealTesla%2F%3F%2524deep_link=true%26correlation_id=4f676629-3bf0-547c-879b-183cd270f779%26post_fullname=t3_1obr2ba%26ref=email_comment_reply%26ref_campaign=email_comment_reply%26ref_source=email%26utm_content=post_subreddit/1/0100019a231ddff4-7323377e-3c97-464b-b066-b41771bbf442-000000/y2UCeij70ah5AiTgNqx7GCD8qP8l56PgybYZEpFR48g=427) | |[Sorry Mr Moron, you dont seem to understand what Im saying, I accept you are a bit thick so let me tell you again, you donkey, going forward TEsla will not sell 240k a year in Europe.](https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FRealTesla%2Fcomments%2F1obr2ba%2Ftsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_oct_20%2Fnlkm2m3%2F%3F%2524deep_link=true%26context=1%26correlation_id=4f676629-3bf0-547c-879b-183cd270f779%26ref=email_comment_reply%26ref_campaign=email_comment_reply%26ref_source=email/2/0100019a231ddff4-7323377e-3c97-464b-b066-b41771bbf442-000000/jd1NCLEbnl1Wh6fThUyJo2PNXVC-GCerp5RqOWfZ30Q=427)| This guy might be a troll. First, it's Tesla won't sell 8k-10k a month in Europe anymore (btw, 96k-120k annually for the mathematically challenged). Then, in his reply (which no longer appears) he changed his threshold to 240k. Just casually doubling what he thought the maximum is in the EU. Wild.

$30B to Elon is only 2% shareholder dilution. Stock dropped more than that on Friday.

Terathread bot is broken again - we could really use an Optimus bot to improve things.

[https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/morgan-stanleys-jonas-declares-robotaxi-breakthrough-im-callin-it-4310049](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/morgan-stanleys-jonas-declares-robotaxi-breakthrough-im-callin-it-4310049)

Did I miss something. Wasn't the latest FSD a crock of shit that was worse than the last? I'm guessing this is why the stock is up 5% for no reason today. What a fucking scam. Every time you think reality is about to bite some shill gets a backhander to pump this turd.

Elonversaries *"what really matters is the factory, the machine that designs the machine – the machine that creates the machine is – becomes actually of greater significance, much greater significance than the machine itself. That's where we have most of our engineering team working on. So sort of an internal codename for the factory machine that builds machine is the alien dreadnought so a point in which our factory looks like an* ***alien dreadnought*** *and we know it's probably right. So we think with Model 3, it will be alien dreadnought version 0.5 approximately, and then it will take us about another year or so, I don't know, summer 2018 to actually get to alien dreadnought version 1....Yeah. I mean, the long-term aspiration for the* ***machine that builds the machine*** *in the factory, alien dreadnaught thing, is the long-term aspiration is limited physics. I maybe call it, like,* ***limited physics manufacturing****."* \- Bullshittus Maximus, Oct 27, 2016 *"****Twitter*** *aspires to be the* ***most respected*** *advertising platform in the world"* \- Technoking, Oct 27, 2022

Now that it's crossed $450 it's gotta break $500. Them's the rules!

What a load of shit that article is, more maybes. However Elmo is pumping this, it must be on a fine margin by now, one blip in the algo and you can see it comes crashing down.

>I’m callin’ it. Autonomous cars are solved Yes, it's called Waymo. This analyst apparently forgot the part where a "robotaxi" tried to kill a fanboi by ignoring the lights and arm on a railway crossing.

Reading this and twitter is hilarious. Elon announced that they will remove supervisors from robotaxis by the end of the year and all influencers declared that FSD is solved. Except Tesla still haven't shown it to work. With this and atrocious Elon record on promissing autonomy to be solved how can anyone believe him?

> the hottest Tesla product probably will be the battery Yes, so hot they're on fire. Literally.

$500 by Thanksgiving?

Remember that video that showed Optimus having a hard time walking to the kitchen to get a soda? I wonder if that’s when Elon realized it would make an “incredible surgeon.”

Elon’s billionare friends like Bill Ackman and even Elon himself to some extent have spent the past few days melting down over the fact that Zohran Mamdani will likely win the NYC mayor race. It’s not just people on the right though, many establishment democrats are melting down as well. They’re trying to paint Zohran as the next Ayatollah Khomeini, determined to turn New York City into an Islamic theocratic state. lol

Per the NYT, the highest compensation for a CEO in 2024 topped out at $164 million...and AFAICT the most obscene compensation to revenue ratio was 7.9%. Just to put Technoking's compensation in perspective, the $1 trillion lotto winnings is over a 10 year period...so his average annual compensation would be: ***600 times more than the current most compensated CEO*** ***102% of 2024 revenue***

They've filed zero applications in the U.S. for level 4 autonomous but compromised analysts push the narrative it's a done deal.

"Elon said".... so must be true - level 4 autonomy requires no regulatory agency approvals or even applications. Everywhere. Within months.

Tesla and Bitcoin might as well be the same thing, in fact Tesla follows bitcoin more. Watch the movements on 1 min chart.

[https://nitter.net/SawyerMerritt/status/1982817490171281805#m](https://nitter.net/SawyerMerritt/status/1982817490171281805#m) This is embarrassing.

I don't like the whole criticism based on Islam, but I'd wager this guy is going to be a massive disappointment if he does win just because so many of his policies aren't routed in economic reality. I think establishment Democrats are worried they could lose the city after his tenure as a result, but it still doesn't excuse the characterization.

That's the paradox of Elon Musk. He lies about everything, his predictions are garbage, his technical understanding of subjects is comically overrated, he's a massive drug addict at this point and he's blatant lied about things before solely to boost the stock price. Yet somehow a lot of people still treat everything he says as credible and inevitable.

[https://www.teslarati.com/the-boring-company-self-driving-teslas-impress-riders-smooth-hands-free-rides/](https://www.teslarati.com/the-boring-company-self-driving-teslas-impress-riders-smooth-hands-free-rides/) Tesla is finally testing FSD in their dumb tunnel. Incredible.

“I rode in the new ***self driving*** Tesla in the Las Vegas Loop... ***Driver said*** they soon will be giving rides all the way to the airport. We are in the future,” Face Palm. There's a human being sitting in the driver seat of this...um..."self driving" vehicle. ...and while I'm at it, I found a few other things that are so futuristic, they also give rides "all the way to the airport": \- At least 3 shuttle providers, Taxi service, Public Bus routes, Greyhound Bus, Limo Services, Rental Cars, Uber/Lyft We ARE in the future!!!

"safety monitor" you just wouldn't understand. Elon big brain smart.

[https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL\_DAILY/QoQ-Chart](https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart) Nearly one month into Q4 and sales look disastrous in the EU so far (from the data available). Nearly 2x fewer than 4Q24 and 4Q23 at this point.

[https://www.nber.org/papers/w34413](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34413) >Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. in the U.S. alone\* >At this point, I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth. >"Go F\*\*\* Yourself"

“The new teslas don’t even need electricity to propel themselves forward,” said the employees pushing the vehicles.

Is it good when every new line trends lower?

Hmm...Denholm says Optimus can fold laundry AND is good with its hands... ...look out Robyn, Techoking may not need you around for much longer.

> *It wasn’t busy* so he let us ride back as well. Emphasis mine. Truly the future, a boondoggle nobody wants to use.

Based on all the assholes who are mad about him, he must be a great candidate. Has Musk even ever been to NYC? Fitting he'd be crying about it too.

9 year Elonversary tomorrow. Yes a full 9 years ago, Griftoking unveiled the Solar Roof. A lot has been lost in the shuffle of renaming it and producing some semblance of the orignal product...but as a review: This first one resembles 3 tab asphalt shingles in shape and size: [https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=517](https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=517) Tesla has NEVER sold this product. Next Slate! [https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=590](https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=590) Tesla has NEVER sold this product. And why not - Terra Cotta: [https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=732](https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=732) Tesla has NEVER sold this product There was also a Clay tile: [https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=801](https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=801) Again, NEVER sold. As a bonus, here's a story about the 1977 patent by NASA for a "Solar Cell Shingle"...you know, the one Musk invented after Dow developed, sold, and discontinued their own model. [https://www.inverse.com/article/35276-nasa-solar-roof](https://www.inverse.com/article/35276-nasa-solar-roof) Another bonus, here's a July 2016 story about Dow discontinuing their product just months before Musk unveiled his groundbreaking imaginary products: [https://www.architectmagazine.com/technology/dow-to-stop-producing-solar-shingles\_s](https://www.architectmagazine.com/technology/dow-to-stop-producing-solar-shingles_s) Twas nothing but a grift to bail out himself and close family members with shareholder money...the Musk way. 9 years later, the current "solar roof" consists of 15" x 45" tiles that look absolutely nothing like 3 tab, slate, terra cotta, etc...and they aren't even water proof (look at the seams with no underlying shingle below) - being more of a hardened layer floating above a waterproof membrane: [https://www.pinterest.com/pin/9148005520814610/](https://www.pinterest.com/pin/9148005520814610/)

Yes it's a sure fire way to reach 50% CAGR

You know as bad as the CT is the Solar Roof might still be a worse and more disappointing overall product. As ugly as it is, at least the CT looks like what they promised. Hell there's probably more operable CTs on the road then are operating installed solar roofs still. I don't know what the design process was but it was clear they never consulted a roofer until the current iteration. Labor costs for installation had to be absolutely insane and it would always look terrible if the roof framing was anything other than perfect. Even with their comically large "tiles" today it still looks terrible because they gave up on using dummy tiles in favor of cheap no gloss sheet metal that could be fabricated on site to deal with problem areas. It still costs too much, performs poorly and now it just looks like crap to boot.

I could do with the math being double checked but 1851 cars sold in 27 days is 68 cars per day. Multiply by 90 days for the quarter equals 6200 cars for the quarter. That's an absolute disaster if it is! There are 140 showrooms selling 3 or 4 cars a week!

Tesla only selling 1851 cars in Europe in a month is hilarious. Ferrari sell 1200 cars a month.

Good thing they don't work on commission iirc. A glorified jobs program.

"We could shoot an actual demo but nah trust me bro I wouldn't lie"

Yeah, but does Ferrari's stock rise 5% on news like that?

The 8 year old comments on those youtube videos are a goldmine of cringe. >> Am I the only one who really likes the way he does his presentations? I feel like they are more natural. He isn't an overenthusiastic salesman selling us products that underdeliver. >> I sometimes feel Musk is a friendly alien sent here to teach us the errors of our ways before it is too late. >> Poor Musk, he needs some sleep. I have a stutter too and noticed that the less sleep I get the worse my stutter gets. Maybe just sleep 9-6 the night before a presentation

You've found comedy gold!

>I don't know what the design process was  For that presentation, the design process was: absolutely nothing. I remember reading parts of the case against the acquistion, and its a hurried timeline of getting the complicit BOD to rubber stamp a BS merger with a fake new product - total development time could not have exceeded 6 weeks...and that includes renting the movie set and installing the fake roofs. None of the products unveiled that day have ever existed...and notably none of the prop shingles held up by Musk even had wires or connectors. It was only later, after the bailout, that they attempted to design something. Now I learned something today - the "dummy shingles" are really just sheet metal? It amazes me how cheap their premium products are.

might as well just close Berlin at this point . . . one boat from China could supply that quarterly demand.

Historically con-men / cult leaders are charismatic. And then we have Elmo stumbling through his technobabble. And then I realized that he IS charismatic for the weird nerds (insert weird nerds gif) that think he is a genius, hell-bent on saving humanity.

> It was only later, after the bailout, that they attempted to design something. Now I learned something today - the "dummy shingles" are really just sheet metal? It amazes me how cheap their premium products are. They do still use dummy tiles but only as partials in a straight run. Anything where there's a valley, intersection in the roof line, gable ends and the ridge are all sheet metal. As far as I could tell it use to just be a rough color match too with no texture and a sheen that didn't match but it seems like in the last 12-18 months they did move over to using a customized sheet metal product that does look substantially better. There's a video here showing their current system: https://youtu.be/hwfLF2wGPu8?si=eDLb0JbFboiMM20O&t=412 You can see an older install from several years ago here with cheaper sheet metal on the edges and how it looks here: https://youtu.be/LRPy8UZv9V0?si=qiqmksXmoYcIYuEK&t=207 But yeah depending on the shape, where it falls and I guess the cheapness of the installer it might be shingle or it might be sheet metal.

But is it good with its mouth?

Sales data. [https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL\_DAILY/QoQ-Chart](https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart)

Good Lord, you still don't get it, do you? That's sales data for SIX European countries, yet you posted as if it represents all of Europe. Stop posting misinformation here.

"The houses you see around you are all solar houses." (Lie) "The goal is to have solar roofs that look better than a normal roof, generate electricity, last longer, have better insulation, and actually have an installed cost that is less than a normal roof plus the cost of electricity." (How did that turn out?) "It needs to be beautiful, affordable, and seamlessly integrated." (Mhm, sure) "This is a textured glass tile - you can see the solar cells behind the glass." (well, if it was a real product, sure) "That house is also solar - with a french slate style roof. That's done with holographic printing." (no, it wasn't) "Probably the most surprising one is the tuscan glass - this is also solar panels." (yes, most surprising because it doesn't exist?)

They didn't say which way it was compounding 50%. \*guy tapping brain meme

You must be new here. Tesla sells almost no cars the first month of every quarter, a little more the second month, and then the bulk in the third month. This is sales data for the countries in the EU that report daily - just six. They usually make up \~25-35% of Europe's total. It boggles the mind that you continue to post misinformation here.

Tesla will still sell 60k+ in EU this quarter. The comment you're replying to is massively misrepresenting the data, and also apparently doesn't understand that Tesla sells mostly in the 3rd month of every quarter.

>As of September 30, 2025, total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $3.27 billion. Of this amount, **we expect to recognize $877 million in the next 12 months** and the rest over the remaining performance obligation period. From the 10-Q. That's about $220m/quarter. My guess is they will frontload that in 4Q25 and 1Q26 to avoid booking actual losses, and then \*waves magic wand\* the Cybercab and Optimus will make them profitable in 2Q26 lol

Thanks I think this point of the video might show it well. [https://youtu.be/LRPy8UZv9V0?t=174](https://youtu.be/LRPy8UZv9V0?t=174) On the right side, the thicker looking tiles with the 90 degree angle flashing over the rake looks like "dummy tile" to me; and on the left side the stuff bent up under the flashing looks like metal to me. Also, you can see the gap between the tiles and the sheathing, as it rides high to allow room for the connectors - notably this installer made no effort of offest joints, and theres a long joint between the metal pieces and the solar tiles - the roof relies entirely on a waterproof membrane (that is surely full of fastener holes for the furring strips). None of this looks anything at all like the fake roofs showed off at the reveal, of course.

You gotta love how it's a 'tunnel' but the photo is from above ground. I've heard large portions of it are aboveground. Waiting for the first report of two 'self-driving' cars running into each other in the single lane portions of this masterpiece.

Thanksgiving? Probably by next week :/

Your talking pooh pooh again, the UK was the largest Tesla market in Europe, Germany an France sales are also on the decline, the numbers in itself don't matter its the rate of decline that matters, and that's massive.

[https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/972245615735222273](https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/972245615735222273) Incredible how much better it is than the rendering!

>the current "solar roof" consists of 15" x 45" Wait, does that say 72 W per "tile?" [https://www.energysage.com/equipment/solar-panels/vsun/VSUN450-144BMH-4cf08b3d/](https://www.energysage.com/equipment/solar-panels/vsun/VSUN450-144BMH-4cf08b3d/) You can get a 450-W solar panel that is \~70'' x \~45''. About 4.67x more area for 6.25x as much power as a Tesla Solar tile thingy. Incredible.

It's flashing on both sides, but I think it has a J style bend at the bottom (and probably the top) so it slides over the end of the tiles. Those tiles with the flashing over them are probably dummy tiles just for economics and maybe that whole section is just given how small it is and the tall tree right next to it. I'm honestly not sure if the tile gaps are due to it being an older home (a lot of the videos of nicer installs are on newbuilds) and inconsistencies in the underlying framing or that particular tile actually being somewhat warped as part of the production/lamination process, but yeah they don't rely on the tiles to do much of anything other than maybe provide some UV And debris protection for the heavy duty underlayment they use. They did note the gap there for both wiring and ventilation which again is going be necessary so the underlayment itself can actually dry off and to keep the cells cool enough to perform well. In the first video I linked they describe the underlayment as self sealing but also state screws are used which I'd worry about being at higher risk of leaks than someone simply driving a nail through in a single shot, but it should all just gum together once it gets hot enough anyways I suppose.

>the numbers in itself don't matter its the rate of decline that matters The rate of decline is dictated by the numbers. How can one matter but not the other? And if the numbers "don't matter" why are you posting projections of...numbers?

I don't know that the reg. credits matter as much anymore just because it's out in the open. They've always used them to backfill bad quarters to some extent too, but obviously there's just less to work with on that front now too. In the immediate future all Musk and the board are concerned about is convincing everyone that the company's doomed without his new comp. package being authorized though. It seems like they've already set up their narrative for inventory backlog shooting up going forward as being in preparation of extra demand due to FSD. How long the market buys that for I don't know, but that's how they're going to deal with the issue of sales being junk in Q4 it seems.

I'm not referencing the gap as a craftmansship issue - maybe I should call them seams. On asphalt 3 tab, there are seams of course - but they land on top of the shingle below. These tiles aren't set up that way, with just a fraction of an inch overlap between courses. So in every seam between tiles, water drips straight to the membrane. Its sort of apparent in this picture: [https://www.pinterest.com/pin/9148005520814610/](https://www.pinterest.com/pin/9148005520814610/) At first I didn't notice it, but once you realize there's no zone equivalent to the area "above the nailing band" on a traditional shingle, its glaring. My take on it is there's now just one barrier to moisture - the waterproof membrane (with fasters through it everywhere). On a standard roof, modern underlayment itself forms quite a barrier...and then you've got the shingles that fairly cleverly have practically no nails exposed to the elements. I dunno - I guess they have to work with what they've got.

The decline between those countries is still a big decline, and is probably representative of the whole of Europe, sales are down 90 % against their best quarter.

Cantor Fitzgerald just raised its price target from $355 to $510...based on: "Tesla's disclosure that volume production of the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 are all on track for fiscal year 2026." Just made me chuckle that they called whatever the hell happens on these earnings calls "disclosures". Sure, the 2019 Semi is really, pinky swear promise, going into production Next Year^(TM)...and sure, there's really going to be a quantum improvement in FSD and the "Cybercab" will be more than a taxi capable of carrying only one passenger.

At this point in the quarter in Q3, it looked like those countries were down 45-50% from their best quarter. Full EU for the quarter "only" ended up being down 22% or so from the best quarter. Tesla's best quarter in the EU was, I think, around 94k back in 2023. If you think Tesla will only sell \~10k in 4Q25, please PM for some can't miss crypto!

I think they will sell 20k, thats it.

If they do, I will refrain from commenting here for a week. If they don't, I expect you to do the same? They will sell nearly 20k in Oct + Nov combined, maybe just under.

The entire market is a fraud. When it eventually tumbles down I hope all of these pumpers and promoters get sued into oblivion

Ok then.

$1.47Tn market cap and a p/e of 311.

If history is any guide, the pumpers will get a bailout.

Elonversary from 6 years ago today: *"I hate advertising"* Hmmm...lets take a look at Tesla's SEC filings, shall we: On October 23rd, TSLA posted dozens of ads on social media platforms, encouraging shareholders to vote 'yes' on Techoking's lotto winnings. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925101876/tm252289d41\_defa14a.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925101876/tm252289d41_defa14a.htm) I guess he doesn't hate *all* advertising...and of course Techoking has nothing to do with pushing this - its all coming organically from the BOD.

Tezzlur reported $.66 EPS (restated to $.60) in 4Q24. The WS avg for 4Q25 right now is $.44, and that may be non-GAAP, I'm not 100% sure. If they hit that, their TTM EPS will be $1.28. If the stock price stays the same, that's a 360 P/E. FY2026 estimates are at an average of $2.27 EPS (too high, imo). So even then, Tezzlur is trading at 203x expected 2026 earnings. Very normal.

I see what you're talking about. Yeah the tiles are pretty much useless for waterproofing and they're counting on that single underlayment membrane to deal with everything besides direct sunlight and impacts it seems like. I'm sure debris will get in there too and just get hung up in various places or clog the weep holes at the bottom and require periodic cleaning too.

once price reaches 600, he will call 700. Previously when tesla price fell 250, he lowered from 400 to 300. Once tesla was at 300, he increased to 400. that's how he works.

No Elonversary today, but since yesterday was the anniversary of the Solar Roof grift, I present: A Branch Elonian who thought TSLA would install 1 million solar roofs per year and garner $47 billion annual revenue from it by 2022. [https://youtu.be/6HcQ-6\_tJ4Y?t=180](https://youtu.be/6HcQ-6_tJ4Y?t=180) Since TSLA (the most transparent company in the world) refuses to divulge granular detail, all we can do is guess - but most guesses put annual Solar Roof Installs at less than 1,500 per year. These days the install is 3rd party, so its just materials. If I S.W.A.G. $50k per roof, they may get $75m in revenue per year. So TSLA fell short of these predictions. But none of that matters now, because its goodbye synergies and hello Optimus!...because surely Optimus sales and production won't be as lackluster as the solar roof was, right?...right?

In addition I think their leases inflate the gross profit by a lot. Both operating lease and 3rd party leases (check out the note on resale value guarantees - they increased by almost $700m in the quarter).

He's going to get the comp package and it won't even be a close vote.

So, what am I missing about the trillion dollar bonus? I mean Tesla is never going to be worth $8T, so why bother pushing for it? Yeh, I get it's a bit of hype for now, but that won't last.

How is it undervalued? I doubt even OpenAI have a PE this high, and they are the alleged leaders in the field.

He supposedly gets stocks and ownership for each milestone so he doesn't have to hit the 8.5 trillion market cap to get a massive payout.  I also feel like for most of the goals, there is a lot of ambiguity as to how to meet them

https://electrek.co/2025/10/28/tesla-signals-cybercab-might-actually-get-a-steering-wheel/ Lol

If Tesla averages just 1.154m vehicles delivered/year for the next 10 years and grows its market cap by just 2.65%/year as well, he gets another 1% ownership. If that's all he does the next decade, he should be fired. Instead, the dumbass BoD wants to reward him.

IMHO, the top end $1 trillion business is a distraction. Embedded on much lower rungs of the ladder are the real gravy train. The first "goal" is a $2 trillion market cap. That doesn't seem very out of reach at all - and for accomplishing that goal, Technoking gets $50 billion. All by itslef, $50 billion is an absurdly high compensation that eclipses any other executive pay package (other than his prior $56 billion payout). And that's just the very bottom rung of the ladder. In terms of stonk price, if today's $460.55 goes up to $639.65, Elon gets his $50 billion. Of course they seem to grow the shares by around 5% each year anyway as compensation for other people. And who knows - maybe TSLA will have to issue more stock so Elon can save humanity with his robot army or some bullshit like that...this money raise will probably also be done at a time when rumors start to float around about cash flow - so presto changeo, issuing new stonk will solve TSLA's money woes and the algos raise price targets in relief. So no dilution - just arbitrarily added stonk to the mix to keep growing that market cap. Anyway, I see it as trivially easy for TSLA to manipulate the stonk into Musk's first $50 billion...and the cynic in me thinks that a con man with $50 billion at his disposal has alot of options for manipulating the stonk up to the next level - which is $80 billion for a $2.5 trillion market cap.

When do we get our DOGE dividends? Elon may be late, but he always delivers!

Tezzlur is at a $1.54tn market cap. It takes just a 2.65% CAGR to hit $2tn in market cap in 10 years. They've sold something like 8.465m vehicles. So it only takes 1.154m vehicles/year over 10 years to get to 20m cumulative - which is a MASSIVE decrease from their current \~1.6m/year clip. This is one of the most embarrassing compensation package proposals in corporate history. Also, Edolf currently owns \~15.32% of Tezzlur. So if the company does get to $8 trillion, his existing shares will be worth $1 trillion, provided he doesn't sell. But he needs "proper motivation," and that's to give him $1 trillion more? The BoD are either hostages or medically insane.