TSLA Terathread - For the week of Sep 29

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1nnid81/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_sep_22/

Here's to another week of big gains based on weak fundamentals. At this point I expect Tesla to end the year near ATH while hitting 1.45 million in sales

Whatever is propping up Tesla stock under the shadow of huge declines in sales is not on the up and up. Tax credits in the U.S. end tomorrow so this will be Tesla's last chance to show an increase this year and I still don't think they will overall. Q4 will be brutal.

There's an interesting phenomenon where troubled times makes for strange decisions. If people in general give up on long term ambitions (ie: house) they suddenly have money for short term ambitions (Labubus). Or perhaps: daytrading stocks.

Manipulated with options and gamma squeeze

It’s Elon. Nobody else has the capital to come close

8 year Elonversary: "BFR will take you anywhere on Earth in less than 60 mins" - RocketCon, Sep 29, 20917 This grift came complete with its own animation: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&feature=youtu.be&v=zqE-ultsWt0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&feature=youtu.be&v=zqE-ultsWt0) And here's a report from his presentation (which also came complete with its own animation) to the International Astronautical Congress 8 years ago. >The spacecraft is currently still codenamed the BFR (Big Fucking Rocket). Musk says the company hopes to have the first launch by 2022, and then have **four flying to Mars by 2024**. “I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in five years,” he said. > By 2024, Musk said he wanted to fly four ships to Mars, two of which would have crew in them. By that stage, they planned to be able to build a plant on the surface of Mars that would be able to synthesize fuel for return journeys back from Mars. [https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/29/elon-musk-spacex-can-colonise-mars-and-build-base-on-oon](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/29/elon-musk-spacex-can-colonise-mars-and-build-base-on-oon) The first Branch Elonian I stumbled upon in person believed both of these were real - to the extent that he mocked me for not even knowing about point to point rocket travel. He kept sending me links to prove what I was missing out on, as if it really existed. It was wild...but then I *really* annoyed him. I must have inadvertently rolled my eyes when he told me about the Mars colony - I might as well have been poisoning the water in a nursing home in his eyes, as my skepticism was going to get us all killed. Not kidding. Elongelicals are real, and this one is otherwise brilliant in his technical field.

Many foreign governments do

I predict the pulled forward demand will make this one of TSLA's top sales quarters, if not an all time high. That will be the message, broadcast from every Elongelical's rooftop: Elon is back and we have record sales!!! To the moon, etc, etc.

I love the logic of point to point rocket travel. Major cities can't wait to launch and land massive rockets in the city centers. Launch pads will take up less space than an airport. Nothing like burning tons upon tons of fuel to save a couple hours over a plane. "This meeting could have been an email but damnit I wanted to fly on a rocket!" Edit: spelling is hard

Exactly this and by December they will have some new shiny "demo" to talk about

99% chance of not becoming aerial grit . . . I like those odds!

going to Mars to 'save humanity' is the stupidest concept imaginable. the main risk is a big rock hitting us, and anything we do in space that does not reduce that probability is generating an opportunity cost there. Plus contrary to our general social programming, we're not God's gift to the Universe. We're just some random brachiating apes who learned how to type.

Q3 on the 2nd of Oct, I hope we get forward sales guidance figures this time.

I don't even know where to begin when listing all the pitfalls with this stupid idea. And really, complaining about fuel waste gives Musk way too much credit. SpaceX will neeeeeeeever come close to the point where its actually burning fuel to transport intercontinental passengers. Its just a fever dream to seperate marks from their investor cash.

1 million optimus sales in 2026

Uses Tesla FSD to land, ends up landing inside a McDonald's

No way, Elon says it’ll be a Trillion… but only if everyone motivates him with a good pay package.

I would think 1 million in 2026 and a trillion sold by 2030. I would expect even Elon wouldn't say they could sell a trillion robots next year without a running fabrication.

I suspect it would be damn near impossible for humans to survive on Mars, without re-supply from Earth...and minor inconveniences such as wild temperature swings, massive solar radiation, planet wide dust storms, and tenuous access to water would make it difficult to survive - even with supplies from Earth. But the bigger question is: What's the point of "saving humanity", if humanity has to live in the literal hell that Mars would be. Best case people would survive in prison like pods, unable to "go outside" unless they're wearing a pressurized space suit with oxygen. It would be the Covid lockdowns x 1 zillion in suck factor. None of it makes any sense.

being a first-gen settler is no picnic anywhere, LOL part of the thesis of Mars is it that it can eventually be terraformed more or less so it's not a permanent troglodyte existence there. "Manned" missions are a waste of resources, but I suspect that's partially why Elon is interested in robotics. The good news is his genius has recently uncovered that robot hands are hard.

I dunno - I remain skeptical Elon can wave a magic wand an alter the atmoshpere and climate of an entire planet. Its not at all the same as being a colonist in the "New World", where they had water, breathable air, gravity, atmospheric pressure, and existing indigenous civilizations to lean on. Its gonna take a whole lot more than fancy renderings to survive on Mars.

1 trillion pre-orders?

We've had "Battery Day", "AI Day", and "Autonomy Day" already. Maybe they'll just say screw it and call the next one "Grift Day" or "Stonk Crypto Day". Honestly, I think the nex big boost will be the shareholder meeting in November. The lemmings will vote "yes" on Technoking's $1 trillion lotto winnings, and the mantra will be: "Elon is sticking around to make TSLA an $8 trillion company!!!!!"

Everyone on earth will have 3-5. We will have more bipedal bots than cell phones

Guidance updated to 1 infinity.

Say less. Give Elon the package.

Is today Tesla’s last day of receiving food stamps Elon’s gonna go hungry

Don't know what the US equivalent of investment trusts / actively managed funds is. Anyway, none of them have positions in Tesla anymore.  Scottish Mortgage (kind of future trends / growth fund) dumped there fairly hefty position a while back. And Terry Smith (a big fund manager) recently described Tesla as "just a car company". So, certainly in the UK, the pros wouldn't touch TSLA with a barge pole.

They aren't going to say anything during the sales report. I'd expect they'll heavily couch expectations in the earnings call when it comes to their core business of actually building and selling BEVs. Musk will once again make some statement about how anyone who isn't all in on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus "doesn't get it", shouldn't bother holding the stock, and is "worried about the wrong things" if they ask any questions related to auto delivery numbers going forward.

It's stupider to keep claiming you'll put people on Mars on a few years, when you clearly won't.

Tesla have filed accounts in the UK, which show a revenue fall of $500m, I would presume that's the same for France and Germany, and Canada maybe? That's $2bn, and a another $500m on the Powerwall recall.

Musk's proposed solution was literally to nuke the ice caps on Mars and it gained a lot of attention because it's yet another one in a long line of things he's said that is just remarkably stupid and something he likely recycled from a movie or old sci fi book that would never work in reality. Aside from the practical problems with simply detonating a nuclear bomb being a really poor to actually vaporize material, there's a reason it's frozen to begin with and it would pretty quickly just... refreeze. In reality pretty much any remotely grounded or researched proposal for colonization on Mars would have people largely living like mole people in tunnels or the pods you described with heavily automated agriculture on the surface. All those renderings of domed cities and random sky scrapers isn't remotely viable and completely ignore the realities of actually building things without massive factories on some desolate rock that's completely isolated from supply chains on earth. While I do believe that people like Robert Zubrin have made some good arguments for essentially having a reach goal for the US space program, there's very good reasons that no one has tried to colonize Mars at this point and the focus shifted to actually examining stuff like the prolonged effects of microgravity on the human body and other living things as actually knowing if we could even survive the trip is a pretty important preliminary step. Similarly there's a good reason for looking at establishing a lunar base for all those aforementioned reasons around actually figuring out those aspects of actually building out facilities for both life support and fabrication a bit closer to home first. As is typical with Musk all of that is basically handwaved and the only hard part of the problem is the one directly in front of him at the moment. Once that big rocket is built everything else will just fall into place and that's right around the corner, even those Starship and its HLS version are already deeply behind schedule and major challenges that in orbit refueling just to get to the moon and back are still years out at this point. As usual Musk's biggest innovation is largely just trivializing an extremely complicated open problem and hand waving away many practical problem as insignificant compared to the immediate launch cost challenges in front of him.

I see Elon over the weekend calling the ADL a hate group that hates christians boosted the price 1%

Weird, they weren't a hate group when they were saying Musk performed an "awkward gesture" earlier this year a political rally instead of slamming him for an obvious Nazi salute.

ADL was referring to "Christian Identity" (the hate group) while the mooks in the xitter spinner turned that into "christian identity" (in general) the irony is Elon got to the right place with the wrong reasoning (these days everybody seems to have a little hate in them), but whatevs

And they'll be controlled by some sort of invisible "net" in the sky

Ford's CEO expects BEV sales to be cut in half next month as the credit expires: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/ford-ceo-jim-farley-ev-incentives.html Not surprising but it does quantify things in a credible way.

Elon's plan is to de-content $7500 of value out of the Y and offer that instead.

What's left to strip out? Brakes and the back seat?

it would be easier to "terraform" earth to deal with climate change than it would be to make Mars habitable. Why terraform Mars when you could terraform Earth, which is a pretty great planet?

A trio of 3 year Elonversaries today: *Such that it can help millions of people And the and the potential likes it is is really boggles the mind because you have to say like what what is an economy an economy is uh sort of productive entities times the productivity, uh capita times productivity per capita at the point at which there is not a limitation on capita the it's not clear what an economy even means at that point. It an* ***economy becomes quasi infinite****".* \- Magnificent Mumber, Sep 30, 2022 *"This means a* ***future of abundance*** *a future where um there is* ***no poverty*** *where people you can* ***have whatever you want*** *in terms of products and services. It really is a a* ***fundamental transformation of civilization*** *as we know it*" - Horse Hawker, Sep 30, 2022 *"Well, I think you mean, when can people receive one? So, I don't know, I'm like, I'd say probably* ***within three years****, And not more than five years, Within three to five years, you could probably receive an Optimus...this is the optimist's design to be an extremely capable robot, But made in in very high volume probably, ultimately millions of units, And it is expected to cost much less than a car. So, uh, I would say probably less than 20,000 dollars would be my guess*" - Griftimus Maximus, Sep 30, 2022 Editor's note: I can do this math with my shoes one. "Within three years" was...well...3 years ago today!!! Lets all get out there and purchase our very own poverty ending coke seeking mannequin - for humanity!!!!

New and innovative ways to use cardboard.

Up over 71% in the last 6 months. And 6 months ago is when the general public witnessed how dumb the CEO is... And how poor the Cybertruck was selling...and how the refreshes didn't bump sales. The only positive is sales pulled forward by the tax credit cancellation. Everything else has been neutral or negative. But whatever stock goes up!

Worthless Troy's estimate is in - 481k.  Given his growing error rate, this implies a range of 447k-515k, which isn't all that helpful.

IIRC, the Cybertruck's dashboard ***is*** cardboard. [https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-interior-changes-design-yoke-marble-dash-seating/](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-interior-changes-design-yoke-marble-dash-seating/)

glass roof for one though the way they designed the back emergency door releases, removing the brakes and relying on regen wouldn't surprise me

The SEC chair is trying to fast track Trump’s plan to eliminate quarterly earnings reports and replace them with semi-annual (every 6 months) earnings reports. https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/sec-s-paul-atkins-signals-fast-track-for-trump-plan-not-retreat-from-transparency/chDMru6R37X Is this really a good thing? I realize a lot of other countries use semi-annual earnings reports, but I thought part of the reason the U.S. stock market is often preferred by both foreign and domestic investors is the greater transparency you get from quarterly reports.

I have a feeling they won't get close to $7500 in BOM reduction if they don't reduce battery or FSD hardware, which they don't appear to be doing. Instead they're removing stuff like seat and steering wheel heating which is a terrible value proposition for EVs.

I doubt that it'll make all that much difference. You'll go longer between actually getting concrete information on how an investment is doing, which I am not a fan of. People who criticize companies for managing to beat quarterly earnings are correct to do so, but companies managing biannual earnings isn't that much better... Six months really isn't the long term, and I'd guess that biannual earnings releases will be even more volatile, and therefore high stakes that quarterly earnings reports.

No human being will ever land on Mars.

>part of the thesis of Mars is it that it can eventually be terraformed more or less Impossible.

2M cars/yr at 10% net margins and 30 P/E is an $80 sp, which would still put TSLA at #1 market cap, just over Toyota.

PE 253

I think it’s actually a lot higher than that

yahoo PE was 938+ before its massive run, tesla PE is low tbh

Ford has an 8 PE. Tesla is valued about 30 times higher than companies in its industry.

Anyone else getting Reddit Tesla Ads urging them to vote yes on Elon’s new pay package?

Toyota sell 10m cars a year.

TSLA has a market cap of 1.5 trillion...not really comparable. Google said yahoo market cap at the peak was \~$125 billion dollars, if thats accurate and lines up with yahoo's peak PE, then that would imply a market cap adjusted to inflation to 2025 dollars at about $235 billion. Even if you assume that inflation was twice as bad as inflation calculators show, thats still only $470 billion to today's dollar, which is around 1/3rd tesla's current. And if you held a gun to my head and told me I had to invest in yahoo at 938 pe ratio in 2000 or tesla today, I'd pick tesla today even without knowing what I know now, just based on PE alone. I would ALMOST pick tesla over palantir except palantir is experiencing explosive growth and tesla is not.

Is it a good thing for whom? The one thing something like this accomplishes its that earnings moves from companies will probably be bigger. In theory, a stock is valued like a business, and so every time you get an earnings report, you get an update on future earnings expectations as well as prior performance, both of which affect the businesses' value. So if you're getting less frequent updates, its fair to assume the value you may fluctuate more on each bi-annual report compared to every quarter. That's bad for retail or wallstreetbets that likes to gamble on earnings. Its probably good for companies like to tesla since one bad quarter could get outshined by a less terrible quarter. Not that that ever fucking mattered, though, honestly, because TSLA moves irrationally anyway.

Genuine question for you and others on this thread....why do we think the stock is ACTUALLY going up? Are deliveries rising? Has the FSD rollout been better then expected or is it improving? Because although I haven't heard much about tesla in a couple months, I truly don't know why the stock is nearly double the tariff low. Is it just because TSLA is in S&P and S&P keeps getting bought by passive funds and retail?

Wait, seriously lmao? Heated seats and steering wheel being able to be turned on remotely is one of the main benefits of the tesla. I would be fucking pissed if I had an order in and heard that those things were being removed completely.

Good. Fucking send this bitch even HIGHER so I can load up some leap puts. I'm frothing at the mouth for it.

The year? At the rate its going, this scam is going to hit ATH by end of this week.

273. But just wait until Tezzlur starts posting losses in a couple quarters. Infinity PE is good, right?

[https://x.com/TeslaNewswire/status/1973396027156644300](https://x.com/TeslaNewswire/status/1973396027156644300) > More affordable Tesla Model Y Standard leaked on the website! Called Model Y Standard $39,990 starting price Redesigned front fascia Single-part headlights Front bumper camera No front light bar No glass roof (“closed glass roof”) New 18” Aperture wheels Basic interior Manually adjustable steering wheel Textile décor 15.4” front touchscreen No second-row touchscreen Manually adjustable second-row air vents Particulate filter (no HEPA filter) 75 cu. ft. cargo space (-1 cu. ft.) That's a ton to give up for $5k of savings. I don't think many people are going to want a DOGE'd Y.

>In Q3, Tesla’s deliveries in China decreased by 8%, and they are now down 6.4% year-to-date, based on insurance data. Europe isn't looking like anything special, probably a bit better than 2025Q2. So Tesla might surpass investor expectations because investors didn't properly increase their 2025Q3 expectations for the pull forward of demand because of the expiration of US tax credits and other subsidies. Stock up by another 10%!

Tesla down -48% YOY September [2024](https://mijn.bovag.nl/actueel/nieuws/autoverkoop-daalt-over-drie-kwartalen-september-toont-herstel) vs [2025](https://share.google/uslbzzJYhDvUp88eL) in The Netherlands. Also not in top 5 top selling car brands anymore, Tesla was number 1 in September 2024. "Elon effect" still strong here, "Juniper effect" seems non existant. Please note numbers do not include Model X and Model S (lol)

Sales down 60% for September in Sweden.

TESLA CEO MUSK JUST BECAME THE FIRST PERSON EVER WORTH $500 BILLION - FORBES

Why is everyone here so bearish?

This is the hate sub for people who refuse to buy TESLA stocks and would rather wait until the whole thing goes to shit (again), just to say "I told you so".

I’m not really looking for a bull circlejerk either but geez you’d think TSLA is in the toilet from just reading the posts here.

Fundamentally, it is in the toilet. Yes, stock is doing well, but it's essentially a memestock now.

morgan stanley are into meme stocks

sales are down YOY. Elon's mouth made a lot of promises in the last EC that his ass is going to have to cash by the end of the year; the promised cybertaxi rollout in Q2 was the weakest shit imaginable, really minimum-effort, about as bad as Toyota's efforts at compliance vehicles. Speaking of which, Tesla lost a ~$2B/yr gravy train of regulatory credits last quarter and ICE got a real shot in the arm with the GOP/Project 2025 takeover this year, largely thanks to Elon doing his heel turn a year ago. TSLA is certainly not in the toilet, but until proven otherwise, Tesla sure is. I don't know if it's really manipulation or just the usual wave of FOMO we've seen over & over again since 2020, as everybody tries to get into the next 15X that Elon keeps promising.

MS: “2Q numbers were a slight beat with FCF near break-even. Tesla is crossing the chasm to autonomy while absorbing slower volume, EV incentive elimination, tariffs and investing in new initiatives that may not make margins for years." BUY BUY BUY

Most of the investment companies are. Goal of the investment companies isn’t to be right about true value of business. It’s to make money.

This sub is RealTesla not RealTSLA. The company is not the stock. You don't see good news about the company very much here because there's very rarely good news about the company anymore.

Does Tesla even sell X and S outside of the US?

Margins will be trash

Does this include the imaginary valuation of the Boring Co and the venture capital burning SpaceX?

Locking this comment. I don't think there's much good that can come from this kind of posting style. If you think there is good news for Tesla feel free to share it. But just attacking the sub and community seems useless as a discussion style. No major moderator action here, no bans nothing crazy. But please try to be useful and not overly dramatic moving forward.

6 year Elonversary - a news clip: >Tesla CEO Elon Musk violated Section 8(a)(1) of the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) last year when he sent a tweet suggesting that Tesla employees who voted to unionize would lose their company stock options, an administrative law judge for the National Labor Relations Board Sadly, I'm not even sure the strongly worded letter has made it to TSLA yet.

Don't forget the xAI which is now xAI and Twitter rolled together at an inflated valuation.

>you’d think TSLA is in the toilet TSLA is unpredictable, but Tesla most certainly is starting to circle the drain. Next year, they'll struggle to match Mazda in sales numbers...and I've got a hunch they won't be flooding the market with legions of poverty ending thigh gap robots either.

Calls

$40K for that??? I paid $44k + TTL for a clearance 2023 HW4 MY AWD w/ tow hitch, $6000 off list. Also got $10K in gov't money after the sale so it was like $40K OTD. Fuckin' love this car! Whatever happened to Wright's Law LOL

Tesla is being valued at BKing every other company in its industry, and several other industries too

I missed it, but two "megapacks" burned up in the Las Vegas area a few days ago. [https://www.fox5vegas.com/2025/09/24/fire-breaks-out-solar-power-plant-boulder-city/](https://www.fox5vegas.com/2025/09/24/fire-breaks-out-solar-power-plant-boulder-city/) Fred reported on it with: "Megapack fires have been statistically rare, considering the volume of batteries deployed through the system."... ...I don't think he fully understands statistics. These batteries were at most 3 years old. When it comes to electrical distribution, any catastrophic failure before 20 years is unplanned for. BTW, a month ago two megapacks burned in California, and there also were fires in 2022 and 2021 Now I can't really dispute Fred's claim that megapack fires are "rare"...because TSLA won't disclose how many of these they've installed (you know, because they're the most transparent company in the world and all), but by the same logic, I have no idea how he comes to that conclusion. Grid scale batteries are becoming a crowded space - reputation and reliability will soon be the differentiating factor.

Troy is guesstimating 481k deliveries...that would bring TSLA to 1,201,803 for the year - compared to 1,293,656 in 2024, or a 7.1% drop...and 2024 was a drop from 2023. Anyone else remember when TSLA was valued so high because it was a "growth company"?

>crossing the chasm to autonomy One safety driver at a time...

The current stock price has gone from ”irrational hope and dreams” to proof of systemic error. The stock makes absolutely no sense, and I can only assume this is a modern case of Tulip Mania.

Its forward guidance I'm hoping to see, or at least some acknowledgement of sales going forward. There is rumours they are temporarily shutting down the plant in Fremantle?

I assume we'll have to wait until Oct 13th to get any forward looking guidance - I think that's the date of the shareholder meeting/$1 trillion coronation ceremony for Technoking. I imagine it will all be robo-dreams with very little said about plain ole cars.

497,099 delivs

>TESLA 3Q DELIVERIES 497,099, EST. 439,612 >TESLA 3Q PRODUCTION 447,450 VEHICLES, EST. 450,313 - Kind of funny, always when Tesla has a bad quarter, everyone is lowering guidance in order to soften the blow. Everyone knew that 2025Q3 will be good because of the expiration of the EV tax credit, but no one increased their estimate, giving Tesla a huge beat on the numbers.

2023 YTD: 1,324,074. $251.60 2024 YTD: 1,293,656. $249.02 2025 YTD: 1,217,902. $474.11  EDIT - to include stock price

*TESLA 3Q DELIVERIES 497,099, EST. 439,612 TESLA 3Q OTHER MODELS DELIVERIES 15,933, EST. 17,184 TESLA 3Q OTHER MODELS PRODUCTION 11,624, -13% Q/Q TESLA 3Q MODEL 3/Y DELIVERIES 481,166, EST. 424,828 TESLA 3Q MODEL 3/Y PRODUCTION 435,826, EST. 426,714 TESLA 3Q PRODUCTION 447,450 VEHICLES, EST. 450,313 TESLA SHARES JUMP 3.5% PREMARKET AFTER 3Q DELIVERIES BEAT

All downhill from here though for Tesla sales.

Deliveries and sales are two different things.

If the stock is pumping because Optimus and RTs are on the precipice of bringing us an "age of abundance" why would moving a few thousand more hunks of metal than "expected" move the stock price? Deliveries are down 8% compared to the first 9 months of 2023.

Especially if Tesla pre-bought some of these for Q4 sales. Q4 could even be more of a disaster than previously thought.

> TESLA SHARES JUMP 3.5% PREMARKET AFTER 3Q DELIVERIES BEAT LOL 3.5% is more than the market cap of Ford. either two-digit IQs run the world or that story is wrong

Just a reminder, Steven Mark Ryan - failed dating coach - last publicly uploaded his "price targets" to his grifting YT channel in late 2022, or at least, that was the last time I felt like injecting bleach into my brain and watched his series on his price targets. His base case for Tezzlur stock price in 2025 was just shy of $1,400. We're almost there, Steven!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MJVg

Even with best q3, they're still behind yoy. They need 600k deliveries in q4 to beat last years cars.  Expect more like 300k, or 1.5m

When there was 6 months wait for tesla cars back in 2022, the stock was 150ish.

5 year Elonversary: *"As we’re able to put more ground stations on roofs of server centers, legacy Internet latency will be zero."* \- Griftlink, Oct 2, 2020 Lets look at the fine print - if I were to purchase Starlink, rather than "zero", the company states latency between 25-60 ms on land and 100+ ms in remote locations. Still not bad...but definitely not zero. Fun fact - last year the FCC denied SpaceX subsidy money for rural internet - because speeds were too low and latency was too not-zero.

*"If all goes as planned, we will be exiting 2022 at a 2 million annual run rate"* \- Really bad fortune teller, Aug 5, 2022

So even with the ev credits rush, they barely beat q4 2024

They for sure pulled forward every single sale they could. Elon needs good news ahead of shareholder vote.

https://imgur.com/cDfdN3H shows him in 2022 projecting 6.6M production for 2025, with Austin fully ramped @ 1.8M/yr. 2023 was when his narrative conclusively failed, and he was 2X over his skis for 2024 and will proven be 3X+ over them this year.

I expect the majority of people who, absent inside information, think they can make money buying and selling individual stocks, currencies, etc., have two-digit IQs, and they'll be the ones driving up the price. NB It's dropped back down again now, so all buying pre-market this morning have lost money!

We obviously saw a strong 3Q delivery number to beat the expiring Tax credits. Those, unlike tariffs, aren't coming back. It's now LAW in the US. Trump can't change his mind or the numbers. But if you're feeling you should short TSLA stock, be careful as the stock price has risen, while the deliveries have fallen the last 3 years. It seems insane, but it all makes sense when you look at how successful Austin Robtaxi has been and the increase demand and fever for Optimus! (/s)

Revenue for this year will be down on last year, and probably down again the year after.

Tesla beats on delivers do to expiring tax credit in the U.S. The Tesla bulls rejoice, Tesla is once again a car company! If deliveries drop next quarter, they will go back to saying Tesla is not a car companies, and their car sales don’t matter.

>With about 50,000 more deliveries than vehicle produced, Tesla managed to get rid of its extra inventory it created in the first half of the year. [https://electrek.co/2025/10/02/tesla-tsla-announces-497000-ev-deliveries-in-q3/](https://electrek.co/2025/10/02/tesla-tsla-announces-497000-ev-deliveries-in-q3/) Uh, is Frud aware that there are still, like, 60k units reportedly in inventory? I mean, Tezzlur and Twitler have never lied on public reports, so all those vehicles are sitting somewhere.

Revenue is going to catch up with them, its dropping Q on Q from here on in.

[Tesla reports 497,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, up 7% : r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1nw3fy7/tesla_reports_497000_vehicle_deliveries_for_q3_up/) Up, but why? Most likely reason? Because the EV federal tax credit set to expire yesterday, now gone. Checked the website to see if anything happened to their prices - nope. As of right now they're selling at the same prices. I'd have to imagine the prospective buyer pool just shrank substantially and they're going to need to offer something else. My guess is they'll offer free supercharging for 3 years or something, knowing full well that the value of that looks really good to buyers when in reality isn't much of an offer at all. But anyways, Q1 2026 earnings will probably see a substantial drop in deliveries to be honest. Bearish as fuck. I'm personally waiting to see if this piece of shit can crack $500 because its time to go back in to some leap puts if so.

Yeah this was the last quarter for ZEV credits as well I think.

What do you mean bro? We ARE almost there. TSLA only has to increase by 208% in 3 months. EZPZ

13% deliveries beat, but entirely likely only because a massive increase in orders from the fed ev credit going away. Jeez. I'd honestly think you'd see quite a lot more lol.

And lower prices then Q4 2024. Imho one of two things is happening. Either the market is buying hand over fist the FSD/robotaxi story, and truly believes it will happen. Or, more likely, TSLA is rising because TSLA is in both SPY and QQQ and everyone is just relentlessly buying both of those funds via 401k automatic investing and other means.

What numbers are those? Is that car sales? And who would've thought that when you posted this comment that $474 was basically the literal top today lol

Their lease prices went up - since they can't pocket the credit anymore: [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-hikes-lease-price-all-us-models-7500-ev-tax-credit-expires-website-shows-2025-10-01/](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-hikes-lease-price-all-us-models-7500-ev-tax-credit-expires-website-shows-2025-10-01/)

This, but also the fact it’s constantly in the news. I’m building a financial news topic model, and no matter which parama I use, Tesla is always second or first biggest topic, every fucking day. It’s crazy.

$tsla down 4% right now. Buy the rumor (of a delivery beat due to the expiring tax credit) and sell the news?

IMHO, buying a Tesla that's been sitting on a lot for several months is no safer than eating yesterday's Tuna salad after its been left out in th sun. No thanks.

It will be a long time before their is any meaningful revenue news.

Negative growth is still growth. Right? Right?

Tesla absolutely knocked it out of the park this quarter . . . Good for them Wait, the stock is DOWN for the day. . . If there was ever a day I expected Tesla stock to go up, today is the day. But it went down. Welp, that proves it. Up is down, left is right, the Earth is flat, and the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

The spike before opening has burst the Tesla bubble.

2m per year at current op margin is a $200B market cap not $1.5T $1T market cap requires Elon 5Xing profits from here. And we’re still $100 over that market cap

\-5%

Given TSLA's valuation, any delivery number south of infinity could be seen as disappointing.

After the pump comes the dump.

+20% on my puts LOL, last batch is at b/e again

AND gas was $6+ in LA

The Juniper Effect on me is making me glad I got a 2023 HW4 MY

Some light reading, courtesy of NHTSA's listing of 'complaints' on the "Apocalypse Ready" Cybertruck: *The adhesive that attaches the front windshield is separating...the the actual windshield is* ***delaminating***\*.\* *The gear selector attached to visor often loose and* ***detached*** *My child received* ***second degree burns*** *Front drivers* ***seat moves*** *The driver’s side door of my Tesla Cybertruck begins to visibly vibrate...strong enough that I can see the* ***door flexing***\*.\* *The accelerator and the brakes were unresponsive...hen it* ***hit the sidewalk*** *, the* ***tires bursted*** *and the* ***wind shield cracked.*** *The rear driver's side* ***quarter panel trim detached***\*.\* *Windshield wiper* \*\*\*fell off...\*\*\**Tesla...stating it was wear and tear.* *The* ***trim piece detached*** *from the vehicle onto the freeway.* *There is a* ***tremendous vibration*** *all over the vehicle. It feels like the tires are coming off.* *A piece of the stainless steel body trim* ***flew off the car***\*.\*  *The stainless panel...suddenly start* ***falling off***\*.\* *Upper passanger trim piece* ***fell off***\*.\* ***Headlights quickly become snow packed*** *rendering them useless.*  *WHILE DRIVING MY CYBERTRUCK ON FREEWAY USING TESLA'S FSD (FULL SELF DRIVING). VEHICLE SUDDENLY ACCELERATED, GOT OUT OF CONTROL AND* ***CRASHED IN TO THE RAILING*** *Wiper started to malfunction...Then shut off completely...and* ***started smoking***\*...then did a 360 on front end of the car. Wiper blade\* ***flew off***\*.\* I'll close with a decree from a Branch Elonian: *NHTSA has created a safety risk by forcing FSD to have extreme monitoring. While in FSD I have to go back to normal driving to change the station on the radio or look at my phone. This is something I do in my non fsd vehicles all the time. The reason for me purchasing FSD is to be safer. Your ridiculous overreach may actually kill me.The entire purpose is to reduce distracted driving, yet your ridiculous rules force an unsafe environment. I hope whoever pushed these restrictions realizes they are accountable for the crashes and deaths they create for forcing people out of FSD.*

This was a sell the news event. A bunch of retail folks bought calls/shares because “Tesla beat expectations”. Meanwhile the pros sold and left them holding the bag. There’s nothing on the horizon that’s positive and could justify the current valuation. They are still down in deliveries significantly YoY and it’s only going to get worse in Q4.

Ding ding ding - so much truth in this More profound than it sounds

Terrifying really. There is one that passes by my work and every day I'm praying not to be near it when I leave or arrive.

This might be why the drop yesterday: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000121465925014509/j102251px14a6g.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000121465925014509/j102251px14a6g.htm) They really addressed all the elephants in the room.

Imagine buying a Tesla that has been sitting on walmart's parking lot for 6 months

Punished for focusing too much on selling cars like some kind of car company.

That is the most plausible explanation.

I believe the "perfect storm" of Elon's stock purchase plus an obvious Quarter beat driven by the ending of the EV credits is finally over. There's no other short term catalysts to push the stock up ..

There is shareholder meeting. He hinted at showing something truly revolutionary so most likely more empty promises to pump stock.

I think the shareholders will vote "yes" on his $1 trillion lotto winnings...and that will be a "catalyst" as this once in a generation first principals rocket landing Mars Mind will now be committed to TSLA for several more years. And the stonk will shoot up.

Elonversaries: "We're going to allow a whole series of apps to be developed for the car. So over time as people come up with good ideas and cool things that can be added to the car we can just add it in. If somebody has developed an app for an iPhone or an Android phone and it makes sense to add to the car, it's very easy to adapt it for that." - 10/3/2011 "Model X’s will recognize each other so when they park next to each other the doors don’t get in a fight over airspace." - 10/3/2015 "You can also still have a roof mount on the Model X on one side using suction cups on the windshield that goes up over the driver and use of only 1 door...it is guaranteed to work to 140mph" - 10/3/2015

Do you think Elon will be able to contain himself and not have any outbursts once the damage from no EV credits kicks in.

No, he'll be fine. He's starting a new political party, remember? He'll control the US Government soon; this is just a temporary blip! /s

I think it's endlessly funny that Tesla stock is completely divorced from it's own metrics but is heavily correlated to Thiel's extended Tolkien universe of companies. One bad report from the Army on Palantir's competence dings Tesla stock.

That ship sailed in ~~May~~ June

$1B to Elon is $1000 to the median well-off stock picker

Recently Elon Musk bought shares at $372 and $396. We shall see TSLA share price drop to below $396, maybe even $372. If you are a short term trader, sell your shares immediately and buy back at about $372.

If the current revenue is higher than the revenue in the past, or the number is positive, then it is growing. If the number is negative, then it is shrinking.

Mission Accomplished for delaying quarterly rebalancing against the rest of the mag 7

So buy back in at 219x earnings of a stock that is seeing revenue and earnings continuing to decline?

[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin) For u/Lacrewpandora Elonversaries, we're a month late on a SIX YEAR Arkiversary. >In this blog, based on a model powered by Wright’s Law, we forecast that the Model 3’s gross margin could double to more than 30% within the next 18 months. Wright’s Law has been [successful](https://www.santafe.edu/research/results/working-papers/statistical-basis-for-predicting-technological-pro) in gauging cost declines in more than 60 technologies ranging from solar power to televisions, and semiconductors to ovens. >Applying Wright’s Law to more than 100 years of auto production costs, we demonstrate how well it has served companies like Ford. Now using Wright’s Law to forecast, and assuming the Model 3’s average selling price (ASP) remains at $49,000, we forecast its gross margins at more than 30% by the end of 2020. >As a result, and as shown below, even as Tesla lowers its price, the gross margin on the Model 3 should increase. >Those concluding that Tesla is structurally unprofitable appear to be fighting the entire history of auto manufacturing. We believe the path forward is clear. Someone get Aunt Cathy on the phone, please.

Thumbs up for "Arkiversary".

> Palantir's competence A long, long time ago I visited Palantir's offices. And it seemed like just a bunch of kids building software that kind of worked. So I always am kind of amused at the idea of fear of our tech oligarchs, because the software is always a total mess behind the scenes. I mean, the oligarchs themselves are bonafide supervillains and try to steer the world into the shitter, but the software itself sure isn't Skynet.

Yep, every observation about technology is an immutable law.

Trump: Hold my Diet Coke

It's just a misapplication of Wright's Law and experience effects to begin with more than anything else. It applies to fields and industries, not individual companies because it largely involved building out supply chains and manufacturing techniques. Those obviously already exist for the automobile industry for the most part and going from ICE -> BEV is nowhere near the kind of change that going from the horse and buggy to automobile was either. You have a mature auto industry and the major changes are going to revolve largely around packaging and integrating large batteries for the most part. There's just a limit of what manufacturing techniques are going to improve somewhat rapidly and most of the stuff they're observing with overall per unit cost decreases is simply better fixed cost spreading as lines get up to their designed capacity than anything else. Pricing is also variable to some extent. Tesla could sell $65k performance trims for the Model 3 early on when they were in the thousands of units but mix quickly shifted to lower trims once they got into 10s and hundreds of thousands of models. Pricing power more than anything else was what drove Tesla's gross profit margins higher between 2020 and 2022 as the auto industry as a whole was largely supply bottlenecked and Tesla itself was able to just mark up its vehicles higher and sell them for more as a result. What's also pretty funny about this ARK presentation is Tesla made it's own ridiculously optimistic presentation about battery pack improvement about a year later for 'Battery Day' and even they had price per kwh dropping by 56% after around 4-5 years. Notably that also was expected to partially manifest as range increases and larger packs too which wouldn't have dropped ASP but simply improved specifications from a competitive standpoint. Obviously here we are 5 years later and Tesla has realized pretty much zero in cost savings from the technologies they teased during battery day too and their own internal cells are still only used in super limited volumes for the Cybertruck. Actual technological and production process innovation is really difficult to pull off and at this point Tesla has largely pivoted away from that in favor of hyping up moon shot AI projects with big fat recurring revenue streams as being literally the only thing that matters for the company going forward.

We need more of these ARK forecasts. I think that most people don't know how insane their forecasts were, their 2020 worst-case scenario for Tesla in 2025 was over 3 million deliveries, bull case over 7 million. It predicts $350 billion in revenue from robotaxis. Their 2022 target for 2026 is a bear case of 10 million cars! That was their worst-case scenario. Tesla won't be anywhere near that, but ARK just continues publishing similarly crazy predictions and just changing the dates. Representatives of ARK are constantly invited to mainstream finance news shows and allowed to say this stuff.

https://zonavalue.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ARKs-Price-Target-for-Tesla-in-2025-is-3000-Per-Share.pdf "Example Bear Case" -- 5M/yr, 40% gross margin $1.5T market cap. Well they got there for the wrong reasons LOL Seeing the early influencer FSD videos on yt in late 2020 made me TSLA-curious, and the S&P 500 inclusion made me pissed off for not getting in since I'd seen the same "Mag 7" dynamic with AAPL years ago. So I was kinda buying the white paper's promises, even if the actual methodology was giving me heavy cognitive dissonance (about the high volumes and margins)

You joke, but it's doubled this quarter based on... uhm... based on... uhm... absolutely nothing. Every single fucking metric is pointing down. The love affair with Trump is over. Sales are shit in Europe. Optimus isn't happening, FSD is still promising that the next version, bro, next version, is finally gonna fix it. It's insane. Absolutely insane.

https://imgur.com/a/fDupK9A that chart is making the rounds now LOL

"From September 30, 2025, access to Imgur from the United Kingdom is no longer available." - do you have an alternative url for it?

| Ticker | Company | EPS Growth % | P/E (TTM) | |:-------|:-----------|-------------:|----------:| | GOOGL | Alphabet | 12.8 | 21.4 | | AMZN | Amazon | 39.2 | 33.7 | | AAPL | Apple | 12.1 | 31.2 | | AVGO | Broadcom | 25.3 | 51.6 | | META | Meta | 38.0 | 23.6 | | MSFT | Microsoft | 23.9 | 38.2 | | NVDA | Nvidia | 45.2 | 57.1 | | ORCL | Oracle | 5.8 | 41.9 | | TSLA | Tesla | -52.6 | 159.9 |

Thanks for your speedy reply! I'd seen it earlier and was minded to mention it somewhere (here'll do!) in the context of why, despite some stocks being left in the S&P 500 after reporting negative earnings, my instincts are that the Index Committee will want to turf it out as soon as they can. They must be able to see it doesn't belong in an index designed to represent the stock market as a whole. They won't want it in there when it collapses, with a market cap that now must be something like 20 times Enron at its peak!