TSLA Terathread - For the week of Sep 22

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1nhhpx6/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_sep_15/

5 year Elonversary, "Battery Day" edition: "*Again, looking at it a first principles physics standpoint, instead of just the way it’s always been done, is we found that we can actually use table salt, sodium chloride, to basically extract the lithium from the ores. Nobody’s done this before, to the best of my knowledge, nobody’s done this. And all the elements are reusable, it’s a very sustainable way of obtaining lithium. And we actually got rights to a lithium clay deposit in Nevada.*" - GigaGrifter, September 22, 2020 *"And I think probably, like I said, about three years from now, we’re confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that’s also fully autonomous."* Technocon, September 22, 2020 *"Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes and even seas that aren’t too choppy...Needs be able to get from Starbase to South Padre Island, which requires crossing the channel."* CyberGrifter, September 22, 2022 Remember all those breakthroughs announced at "battery day", with the seals honking their car horns in applause? "Five times energy density". And the results speak for themselves - a 2020 Model Y maxed out ar 326 miles range and a 2025 version gets 337 miles!!! That's S curve exponential improvement that Elon promised...and Elon delivered.

Elon sat next to Trump and somehow someway it mean billions extra market cap for Tesla. Company with no perspectives, all their products current and in development serverly lagging behind competitors.

Another 5% pump day? At this rate we will be back to ATH in no time lol

I know Musk has absolutely no fear of the SEC but how fuck do they keep pumping this. It’s not like there is enough short to squeeze.

Because they can, is the sad answer. When this is all over they’ll call it the AI bubble. Companies pumping hundreds of billions, even in a day, on a concept of a plan.

Apparently Trump farted on Sunday and Musk congratulated him that is the reason the stock went up only reason I can think of, no fundamentals support a $10 increase lol

The Powerwall recall is turning into a clusterfuck, they are all popping up now. This could be a $500m cost easily. [https://www.reddit.com/r/Powerwall/comments/1nn9bmi/now\_there\_is\_over\_1\_million\_powerwalls\_how\_many](https://www.reddit.com/r/Powerwall/comments/1nn9bmi/now_there_is_over_1_million_powerwalls_how_many)

Nvda and openai partnership will upset elon lol

every $10 in the TSLA's SP requires ~$1B of earnings to support it. Uber is at $6-10B/yr earnings . . . does Elon know that??? Every million cars Elon makes will maybe provide $4B to the bottom line, or $40 per share (at a generous 10% net margin) . . . Telsa sold under 1M cars for 1H25, but hey, maybe they can get back to 1.8M this year, their peak year (2023). So $80 SP for 2M/yr cars plus maybe $100 if Tesla completely scales to Uber size. Uber's business model is mostly a tax scam since drivers get the generous IRS mileage credit to take against earnings, while corporations aren't hit with 1099 employee tax brackets so Tesla taking these costs internally aren't going to pay off like Uber's ops.

So when does TSLA stock start to feel the effects of the EV credits getting taken away? Quarter 1 2026 I'm guessing

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” -- Benjamin Graham, 1949 Elon's been busy attaching balloons to this thing for 10 years now. Solar City, FSD "feature complete", Cybertruck . . . LOL

I’m sure playing politics will work out great, just like it did last time. 475 to 220 in the span of a couple short weeks

The way I see it, the stock price is almost completely disconnected from the fundamentals at this point. However, I imagine the EV credits going, along with the underlying trend of sales declining, with nothing likely to improve, and autonomy, both for vehicles and robots, farcically over-hyped and unlikely to generate revenue for years, if ever, will cause earnings to go negative, and stay negative, in the near term. I thought this was going to happen Q4. Perhaps it still will, but I am unable to gauge the impact the change, whereby only a deposit is required by end of Sept, rather than delivery, to get the credit, will have. I still think Q4, reported, presumably, Jan 2026, will likely yield negative earnings. What does anyone else think? I also think the S&P Index Committee, who at their discretion can kick a stock out once earnings go negative, will do so, sooner rather than later once this has happened. I think this will burst the bubble as a lot of people hold stock simply because it is in the S&P 500, and will therefore sell as a matter of course as a result. If too many sell around the same time for the Branch Elonians to 'by the dip', I think that'll do it.

https://www.car.info/en-se/stats?from=2025-02&to=2025-07&vd=4&et0=3&tcb=new_registered&tcs=new_registered Last six months of BEV sales in Sweden, and Tesla has now dropped to 9th place with a whooping 6% market share of new BEVs. In Sweden, BEVs are 30% of the total car market, so Tesla has 2% of the Swedish car market. Two fucking percent. Mission accomplished! Give the CEO a trillion dollars!

Feel the effects? It's going up, that's the effect.

I think it’s extremely unlikely that TSLA will be removed from the S&P. That would only happen after the stock has already dropped 80% or more, regardless of quarterly losses. In other words, it would be a consequence of the drop, not the cause of it.

> I also think the S&P Index Committee, who at their discretion can kick a stock out once earnings go negative, will do so, sooner rather than later once this has happened. I wish I shared your optimism. If this even looks like it might happen, Musk will melt down on X in spectacular fashion. But let’s be real -billionaires don’t face accountability in America. TSLA getting kicked from the S&P 500 feels almost impossible without a true catalyst, like a massive stock price collapse.

Apparently shareholder proxy is flotsam and jetsam not warranting its own post…

Haha, arch enemy Sam Altman gets hundreds of billions from Microsoft and NVIDIA while poor Elon Musk must empty SpaceX coffers, steal from Tesla, loan money at 12% interest and beg middle east dictators for investment. And even with that he had to fire 500 people from xAI. Good times.

It would have to drop by over 98% to be kicked out for that reason : "A company that substantially violates one or more of the eligibility criteria for the S&P Composite 1500 may be deleted from the respective component index at the Index Committee’s discretion." source [https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf) The S&P Composite 1500 is a portmanteau of S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600. From the same document: "Market Capitalization. Eligibility differs by index: \[...\] S&P 500: US$ 22.7 billion or more" US$ 22.7 billion is less than 2% of Tesla's current market capitalisation. However just one quarter of negative earnings is enough for the Index Committee to be allowed to kick them out, especially if it looks likely to continue negative. Again, from the same document: "Financial Viability. Eligibility differs depending on the index: \[...\] S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter." TSLA was eligible to join for c. a year before it was included. If the Index Committee were reluctant to let it in perhaps that means they will be keen to get it out. The following podcast is worth listening to: [The Secretive Committee Behind the S&P 500](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978) Here's the introductory text for it: "Few organizations in finance are as mysterious as the committee that oversees the S&P 500 — a group that recently decided to exclude Tesla despite the company seeming to check all the required boxes. On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel — along with Katherine Greifeld of Bloomberg News — speak with David Blitzer, who headed the S&P index committee from 1995 until his retirement in 2019. They discuss the Tesla tantrum, why the identities of committee members aren’t public, how the group makes decisions, criticisms of passive indexing, and even the hypothetical path Eric would need to take to get a seat at the table."

See [my answer](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1nnid81/comment/nfr0v2s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) to the very similar comment by u/LeoX9

I watch "Tesla bull" videos from time to time. They often seem to get excited about how much money Tesla can make from this. Clearly it is, in fact, like every other aspect of their business at this stage, other than cars for the next week, a huge liability. Robotaxi must be loss making and if they scale it even more so, with the possibility they'll get rid of safety drivers and have a hope of financial viability ever, let alone any time this decade, being vanishingly low, et cetera. Next month, with the US subsidies gone, it'll all be loss making, including the cars, unless I have missed something.

I've mentioned this podcast in quite a few replies recently. I am re-listening to it now, and it occurred to me that other r/RealTesla denizens would almost certainly find it interesting, especially as there is much mention of TSLA and its delayed inclusion in the index: [The Secretive Committee Behind the S&P 500](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978) Here is the introductory text: "Few organizations in finance are as mysterious as the committee that oversees the S&P 500 — a group that recently decided to exclude Tesla despite the company seeming to check all the required boxes. On this episode of Trillions, Eric and Joel — along with Katherine Greifeld of Bloomberg News — speak with David Blitzer, who headed the S&P index committee from 1995 until his retirement in 2019. They discuss the Tesla tantrum, why the identities of committee members aren’t public, how the group makes decisions, criticisms of passive indexing, and even the hypothetical path Eric would need to take to get a seat at the table." Given Tesla are likely to head into negative earnings territory in the near future, and this would allow it to be kicked out again (see [this recent comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1nnid81/comment/nfr0v2s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) for more details), people might find it interesting to listen to it to get some insights into how the Index Committee functions.

10 year Elonversary to this headline: "Elon Musk says Tesla Model S may have 1,000km range in 1-2 years"

>may So seems like they decided to wait on the 4680 tech to improve

To be fair, the 2020 Flying Roadster has a 1k km range...TSLA is just differentiating between its totally real products.

Over on SeekingAlpha: #I Lost Money Shorting Tesla; Here's What I Learned ##Summary * Tesla, Inc. continues to defy traditional valuation logic, trading at high multiples despite deteriorating fundamentals and declining EPS. * TSLA's share price is driven more by CEO Elon Musk's hype and loyal supporters than by profitability or competitive advantages. * Attempts to profit from TSLA's decline based on fundamentals have failed, highlighting the risks of betting against market sentiment. * Despite the unique market dynamics, TSLA remains rated as a Strong Sell due to its weak fundamentals and overvaluation. I would say the same, but my puts expire Q1/Q2 so I haven't lost any money yet, just the entrance timing was suboptimal : )

Jokes on you, he didn't say a 1,000 km range without charging :p

It's not defying any logic. People just put in the bucket of "real companies". It belongs in the bucket of "meme stocks".

> but my puts expire Q1/Q2 so I haven't lost any money yet This is terrible logic and I recommend you stop thinking like this gambling bullshit. You lost money. Period. Accept the L. That being said I have chosen this as my short entrance. The difference is one of purpose. I've calculated my VTI and SPY portions of TSLA (1.7%) and have figured around 10ish shares is enough to negate / hedge against TSLA. ---------- The fact is: you chose long dated puts because you're trying to avoid theta decay. So that means as the expiration point nears, you MUST sell your puts and renew them to the appropriate Theta risks you are willing to take. If not, then your strategy is asinine. You need to decide what your game plan is before you buy (or write) options. But the way you are writing is very WSB pay-to-win entertainment style rather than like a real concerted investing strategy. Every day you hold onto puts (or calls for that matter) is Theta decay, which accelerates the closer and closer the option is to expiry. You have to be calculating things in terms of $$$ value every day and not be doing this shallow ass WSB bullshit if you are seriously playing this shorting game. You also should have been using Delta and Gamma to calculate the number of options appropriate to your risk level. Among other stats... The calculations are all automatic these days so you really should know the basics of Greeks and how they relate to your true daily costs of these strategies. These Theta decay costs eventually rise above acceptable level. You sell the option at that point. Period. No one should be lol buying multi-month or multi-year LEAPs and then holding them anywhere close to expiry.

> You lost money. Period. Accept the L. I rarely buy puts (last time was on LEH in 2008...) . . . my TSLA thesis hasn't changed since the EC so I'm OK still waiting on events through 1Q26 . . . it dropped 50% from $425 not a year ago so it can certainly do that again. Or not.

A lot of the big boys have bags to unload, many of which they probably bought on the last run up. They’re quietly dumping those on retail. When it falls hard and fast, they have already switched to a short position

It's amusing to see how people who touch TSLA keep on thinking that "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" doesn't apply to them.

Technique matters. That's all I'm trying to say. Keep the Theta decay in mind. Renew your leaps and accept the lost value so that you keep the most true value in your long term short strategy. If you need help with the Greeks feel free to ping me. I'm not an expert on options but it scares me to see how bad a lot of Redditors are at these basics. There are one or two other good investors in the subreddit who can chime in on your strategy as well.

Points taken, but I consider the $100 run up 100% manipulation and my original March/April $250 strikes still in play.

The amount of people trying to short Tesla who have no idea what you are talking about with greeks is shocking (not talking about op). I have no idea what you are talking about. I have no interest in learning what you are talking about. This is why I don't short stocks. Seems like a great way to get rinsed if you have no idea what you are doing.

there's a lot of nonsense going on making trad TA and dynamics understanding not work, or work too well. if people stuff $40B into S&P funds in a week, TSLA has to go up I guess. Any idiot can look at the 6 month TSLA chart and know not to short its rising channel. Then again looking at the 5 yr might give people ideas. There's quarterly QQQ rebalancing that Elon managed to avoid this cycle, probably by manipulation ... ooh $1B stock buy on a $200B+ net worth . . . much commitment. I can't fight Optimus enthusiasm if that's what's floating the stock, but Elon's mouth has been flapping a lot this quarter and I'd like to take the under on him actually finishing FSD like he said he was going to. Stay tuned, LOL.

TSLA is a unique stock. Oct -> Mar it did a round-trip from $210 to $480 to $220, and that was before "Liberation Day". It has uniquely benefited by being the #1 BEV carmaker in the US during favorable EPA and CARB regulatory incentives, allowing it to build out its global factories for free basically. Its Achilles/Achilles Heel is Elon now. I was a cautious long from $300 in 2021 to $400 during the Hertz push, down to $100 in the 2022 sell-off, finally cashing out at $300 - $350 at a couple of good exit points last year. I never fully believed Elon's wide range of bullshit, but I did think I had alpha when I believed his "50% CAGR for the foreseeable future" bullshit. Elon is playing a different game now and I don't like what he is selling. I expect the cybertaxi stuff to pan out eventually, but am doubtful it will come together this year like he promised in the last EC. This is a news & macro driven stock, plus other major factors like US politics and US - China relations. I haven't shorted any amount I can't afford to lose, and I knew it was only ~50/50 going in that my puts would print. Just need to sit on my hands now and wait for my short thesis to be proven or not, next quarter and Q1.

The "Greeks" are a set of differential equations that give a theoretical background upon which options "should" cost. That's all. The various names (Gamma, Delta, Theta) are different pieces of the differential equation. I know you said you weren't interested in "shorting". But this is about options (not necessarily shorts). A "long put option" is similar to a short (makes money when stock goes down), but a "written put option" would actually be a bull trade (make money when stock goes up). Its rather complex and there's lots of combinations and spreads... but I digress. I guess.... I'm just somewhat peeved at a bunch of gamblers losing their own money while being wholly ignorant about this game entirely. I get that gambling is fun for them and "understanding" the basics would make it unfun (especially since it involves differential equations). But shouldn't gamblers at least be trying to push for every advantage they can get? I dunno. If you're going to try to become an airplane pilot, then you should learn basic physics (gravity, lift, drag). If you're going to play with Options in the market, then for the love of your own damn money, study the fucking Greeks. Seriously.

Correction: it is removed from the S&P500 ESG in May 2022, but not the main S&P500.

using Uber's revenue to argue against the overly high evaluation fo Tesla isn't a good strategy; two other factors that outweigh this: 1. lowered per-ride price bring in a much large customerbase, potentially drawing customers away from traditional car ownership, and expanding the entire car commuter market making it affordable outside the developed world. 2. tesla get to make and "sell" more tesla, even if it is only to its own home grown uber, and the expected revenue from the car sales alone can justify for much more than what uber's revenue represent. Though I believe even with these two parts in mind tesla shouldn't be nearly as higly priced.

In addition to the tax credit expiring, Tesla is currently offering 0% financing on the Cybertruck from now until 9/30. And a $1000 referral bonus. Unlimited demand.

Lots and lots full of demand

How the hell is Tesla up about 30 percent over the last month? I’m not sure why I still follow this madness.

Just look at options for October 17. This is madness. For 1 per share, you have a Put at 320, and a call at... 600 !!!

A lot of the Tesla bulls think Tesla will beat the current delivery consensus for Q3, given the expiring tax credit in the US. They point to gambling websites like Kalshi, which is currently projecting 503k deliveries, well above the analyst consensus. (Some people claim Kalshi has been more accurate than Troy Teslike.) In my opinion, if Tesla does beat in Q3 it will likely drop again YoY in Q4 since the expiring tax credit will mostly just pull forward demand.

7 year Elonversary...anyone remember all the car carriers Tesla made? *"Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load."* Long time viewers may remember TSLA published some drone shots of carriers being spray painted red in their factory lot. Then they abandoned the idea. Not too long after, in March 2019, TSLA bought a carrier company...with stonk, not cash. Turns out they were so close to the razor's edge of folding, they couldn't pay cash money to have cars moved. Long time viewers might also remember that on the prior April Fool's day, Technoking mocked the idea of TSLA going "bankwupt". In 2020, Musk revealed they were 30 days out from folding, and he had lied about financials: "Closest we got was about a month. The Model 3 ramp was extreme stress & pain for a long time — from mid-2017 to mid-2019. Production & logistics hell." Good times.

13 year Elonversary: From TSLA's Investor Relations Press Release: "*The electricity used by the Supercharger comes from a* ***solar carport system*** *provided by SolarCity, which results in almost zero marginal energy cost after installation. Each solar power system is designed to* ***generate more energy*** *from the sun over the course of a year* ***than is consumed*** *by Tesla vehicles using the Supercharger. This results in a slight net positive transfer of sunlight generated power back to the electricity grid. In addition to lowering the cost of electricity, this addresses a commonly held misunderstanding that charging an electric car simply pushes carbon emissions to the power plant. The* ***Supercharger system will always generate more power from sunlight than Model S customers use for driving.***" - Sep 24, 2012 [https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-launches-revolutionary-supercharger-enabling](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-launches-revolutionary-supercharger-enabling) Once again, I'd like to point out: Napkin Math exists. At the time, he (let's be real here - this press release came straight from Captain Conman's lips) was probably talking about 85 kWh Model S...for simplicity's sake (this is being done on a napkin after all), each charge is 50 kWh. A standard parking stall is 9'x18', but let's generously assume 200 sf "carport" space available. At 20 W/sf, each supercharger could charge a car every 12.5 hours...well, less than that because of a phenomenon known as: *night.* So 1ish, maybe 2 cars per day. Weird - kinda like how long it takes to charge with solar at home...its almost like Elon doesn't possess magical powers. Its been 13 years now...most superchargers don't even have trash cans or squeegies, much less a "solar carport" - but what the hell do I know, never having personally landed a rocket myself.

Its near the end of the year - we're about to get the annual "next year" promises of Flying Robotaxis and Poverty Ending Robot Nirvana. Why wouldn't the stock go up with such a bright future just a year away!

> The Supercharger system will always generate more power from sunlight than Model S customers use for driving Hey that one's true since they basically don't sell the S anymore.

The part I don't understand is 503k Q3 still puts them 566k short of 2024...which was a drop from 2023. And no way in hell they deliver that many Q4. So no matter how you slice it, Tesla sales will almost certainly drop YOY for the 2nd year running. In a sane world, that seems bearish to me. Add to it the absence of buyer tax credit and carbon credits in 2026...all I can conclude is people actually believe Elon's robots will soon be mowing their lawns and waving hello to the neighbors.

If you are planning to dump, you should pump before hand. Platant manipulation. That being said: the type of manipulation that either Tesla is about to raise soon or Musk is about to dump his bags. It doesn't do anything to keep the lights on, unless they raise new capital.

Techoking is always playing 5D chess, while the rest of us just play checkers.

Charging an electric car does simply push carbon emissions to the power plant, though. It's not a misunderstanding. Whether or not that's more carbon intensive than sucking dino juice out of the earth, refining it, and lighting it on fire for zoom zoom is another story...but it's not a misunderstanding.

yes up $50B in one day is a bit odd. That's the profits on 10M vehicles at $5k per vs. maybe seeing a one-time boost of 100k over this quarter and next thanks to IRA being terminated early. Sure, why not.

I'm surprised he didn't announce some "sunlight amplification technology," based on his experience  burning ants with a magnifying glass in 1979.

Musk dumping stonk can allow him to pay bills.

How much of this stock run (30% in past week) is due to the shareholder vote on Elon? Will this be propped up until the vote is over? I know it’s impossible to answer but this is the only thing that makes sense to me, though I am looking for logic in insanity and corruption.

I think most of it was Musk buying a billion of Tesla stock, a smaller part is the shareholders excited for diluting their own stock (I think the trillion in stock will affect them but haven't looked into the details)

Well he bought right before the shareholder vote and get how excited a shareholder would be to dilute their own investment so this all tracks.

16 year Elonversary: *"I feel pretty* ***con****fident we can get to a compelling sub-$30,000 car in five years.*" - GigaLiar, 9-25-2009 10 year Elonversaries: "*My guess is probably we could break a 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) within a year or two. I’d say* ***2017 for sure***" - Constant ConMan, 9-25-2015 "*My guess for when we will have* ***full autonomy*** *is approximately three years*" - Supervised Grifter, 9-25-2015

TSLA's SEC filings have been a flurry of activity - all revolving around the upcoming shareholder meeting. Mailers, interviews, screen shots from web pages - all encouraging shareholders to vote "yes" on the most important proposals. IMHO, yesterday's filing leaves absolutely no question as to what the company's priorities are. Under the heading "Three Proposals Critical for the Future of Tesla": \- 2025 CEO Performance Award (make sure Elon gets paid) \- Amended and Restated 2019 Equity Incentive Plan (make sure Elon gets paid even more) \- Election of Directors (BOD has gotta keep their beaks wet too) Elon is right - Tesla isn't a car company. Its a slush fund.

Interesting development from BYD: The YangWang U9 Xtreme (which is technically a production car) beat out Bugatti's speed record at 308.4 mph. Its questionable as to how much of a "production car" they really are - with only 30 planned. But the asking price is only $151k. Its not quite as fast as the 2020 Flying Roadster, but BYD is definitely closing the gap. Oh yeah: In August, BYD sales in EU were up 201% YOY in August, with TSLA's sales dropping 37%.

“The billionaire CEO of xAI sent an email to the artificial intelligence company's workers giving them 48 hours to submit a one-page description of what they did in the past month and what they plan to do in the next month, CNN reported. "This is due by noon on Thursday," instructed the email, which was sent Tuesday.” We’re back to greatest hits.

I wonder if some institutional investor broke rank and told them they will vote against. They seem to be really desperate to promote this to retail. It would even explain why elon bought when he bought. It was a day before cut off day to be eligible to vote. Maybe musk thinks one of the votes on will actually be close.

Very interesting - it never occurred to me that Musk was just buying voting rights. Hell, he could sell the $billion in stonk back after the vote. Isn't is bizarre that we're sitting here positing whether or not any of the largest investment banks in the country would vote against a $trillion dollar compensation package!

What other mega cap company CEO makes Xitter posts about the stock price? It’s unreal how literally nobody sees this as a warning sign

Always a great sign for a high growth AI company to be initiating mass firings under the thinnest of premises. I think we all knew it was going to happen eventually but this seems unusually quick.

Guess we can look forward to this inevitably ending up in a lawsuit and a judge either deciding that the board was completely independent or that a case can't be brought under Texas law since it'll probably require 66% of shareholders to sign on. This is going to be in textbooks as one of the biggest and most overt failures of corporate governance and failure of shareholders to protect their rights ever.

What are the reasons that Elon would buy $1billion in TESLA stock when he hasn't done it recently?

The full European registration data for August has been released. In the EU Tesla sold 8,220 cars (12,966 in August 2024, -36.6% YoY). YTD sales are 85,673 (150,037 in January-August 2024, -42.9% YTD). In the EU+EFTA+UK Tesla sold 14,831 cars (19,136 in August 2024, -22.5% YoY). YTD sales are 133,857 (198,474 in January-August 2024, -32.6% YTD). BEV sales as a whole increased (+26.8% YoY, +26.0% YTD). The overall European car market is stable (+4.7% YoY, +0.4% YTD). Source https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_August_2025.pdf

I hope they use ChatGPT to answer him.

Yes Votes for his comp package

My guess is his $1 trillion lotto winnings would be hard to challenge, with the move to TX, minimum stonk ownership limits, etc. But the attempt to still get Elon paid his $56 billion? Seems like there would be tons of litigation over that. Who knows. Its fascinating to me that the BOD and the chair in particular are devoting so much time and energy, with laser focus, on one goal: Get Elon his $Money$! In a sane world, they'd be looking after the interests of more than one shareholder. Oh well. I'm sure everything is being done in a responsible manner.

I think it's better to use Grok. Referencing Hitler brings job security in his companies.

I should have probably been clearer. The podcast is from five years ago and the exclusion mentioned was the refusal to include it in the first place, when it had been eligible to be included for a year or so.

Avoid losing $10B in his shares’ valuation that will happen when he falls out of the top 10 / Mag7

What a fucking weirdo. I wouldn’t want to be in the same time zone as he let alone in my mgr stack

Tesla will not sell 1m cars next year.

That would be fantastic. Just over a year ago they were talking about a factory in Mexico. It's a shame they don't have that capacity.

Imagine having project managers / team managers who could actually report what their employees are doing. And not wasting engineers' time with inane requests from a drug addled psycopath.

Larry Ellison briefly overtook him as world's richest man and he didn't like it.

Larry is richest again after today.

To pump the stock. He invests $1B to show his support, and his supporters pump the stock up 28%, increasing net worth by $40B. It was an easy way to move the narrative away from the impending collapse of EV sales from the lack of the tax credits, and increase wealth since the stock is mostly narrative driven at this point. The intrinsic value of Tesla is around $50 a share if you use (not terribly) conservative fundamental estimates - see link. I'm sure that investors knows that if the narrative collapses back to fundamentals, so does their wealth. I'd be willing to guess that the folks at Tesla or the other related companies (Twitter/X/X.AI) are running some of the most sophisticated narrative manipulation the market has to offer. The question is who is going to figure out where they are testing their narrative strategies and then get in front of it. We saw the pump start a day or two before his $1B announcement, so he clearly has a following somewhere that is clued into the social strategy. It's probably where they test narrative releases before they come out. https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/tsla/summary.

i think he said he is going to send the robot to mars, car sales are not relevant

Literally dude.

🌎🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

I don't know, Texas corporate law is looking really crazy where it's just any serious accusation of impropriety and even getting proposals up for vote is going to take some serious juice in terms of share count. I mean it's just completely insane how the board is shilling for him so heavily specifically because their job is to do the exact opposite: oversight and tough negotiations to defend the financial interests of shareholders. Literally advocating with a massive conflict of interest for the CEO and major shareholder is textbook conflict of interest and demonstrates the board isn't independent. It's one of those things that any rational judge, like McCormick, would see and say "yeah there's no way you can claim the board was independent" but of course that's the whole point of reincorporating in Texas. If it passes a vote I don't think there will be much of any recourse.

I also love the idea of Tesla just jumping into a low-margin industry they know nothing about but will somehow revolutionize via Elmo big-brain. Surely all cars in the world are now being hauled on Tesla carriers (towed by Tesla semis)? This is totally happening with the Boring Company. And I expect most current fast-food enterprises will eventually be Tesla Diners.

So, since Intel is rocketing for what might not be a prolonged period of time in this world, does it make sense to buy the farthest out (into 2026, 27) put option on something like decline back down to $20 stock price? I never really grasped how those worked, and which ones to buy so I have only dabbled in cheap ones but I have an app on my phone where I surf these put options but really don't understand it enough to play on my gut feeling that Intel will be back to earth in 2027 for example

Realistically, I think they'll sell 1.65 million this year, and still be able to scrape by with 1.45 million sales next year. These are still not good numbers, but sales won't drop off that fast. Tons of people don't know or care about Musk's politics, and are also under the mistaken impression that TSLA builds quality cars with "cool tech".

A couple of 12 year Elonversaries today: Headline: *"Elon Musk reveals blueprints for next generation of transportation, the Hyperloop"* Headline: *"Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, took a jab at Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin space venture, claiming he'll sooner see unicorns dancing than his competitor make it to space."* For the record: Hyperloop is recycled sci-fi nonsense, and Blue Origin first reached orbit on Jan 15 of this year...that's right, the privatized launch services market that SpaceX has a bit of a monopoly on is about to get another player: Bezos. Fun fact - the day after the successful Blue Origin mission, SpaceX collected data over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

> YTD sales are 85,673 ~10,000/mo out of Berlin ??????? Back in 2022, our buddy SMR had projected 10X that for Berlin's 2025 output. https://imgur.com/a/kdGCktV

Are you willing to short sell Intel? Why are you choosing the more complex put option if you don't understand it? Long dated puts are exceptionally similar to a short but have key differences.

SMR is a genius, his hat can barely contain his brain. Anyway he won't care about fundamentals as long as TSLA goes up

What do y'all think about Chinese companies starting to remove Lidar and declaring that removing Lidar is the right idea? Xpeng’s Autonomous Driving Director, Candice Yuan on the company removing LiDAR in favor of a Vision approach: “Nowadays, we are more confident that removing lidar was a good choice. Why? Our new AI system is based on a large language model based on many data. The data are mostly short videos, cut from the road while the customer is driving. It is a short video, like 10 or 30 seconds short. The lidar data can’t contribute to the AI system. Lidar data is different and can’t be absorbed by the AI system. That is why our system grows very, very fast, because we can train it on so much road data.”

Puts are tough since the market generally goes up 5-8% just due to money supply slosh (aka TINA). My “thesis” with the Q2 puts is simply I suspect the market hasn’t priced in Elon losing his $2B/year EPA credit income, plus the fade on robotaxi being viable by March. I could be wrong on that so I didn’t risk more than I can afford to lose. With puts, if you pay $5for a $25 strike, at expiry the stock has to be under $20 to break even. That’s the intrinsic value. Options also have time value relative to when the expire. It’s all a gamble and not generally priced well for buyers…

All of Europe hates Elmo, sales have drpped 62%. Canada hates Elmo, sales have dropped 70%, and half of the US hates Elmo.

Tezzlur\*

Doing some quick, back of the napkin math on delivs... \-China is tracking above Qs 1&2, but not as high as 3Q24 or 4Q24. Estimating 170k. \-U.S. should set an ATH for quarterly delivs. That record was 171k in 4Q23. Pencil in \~175k. \-EU: Same deal as China. Could be big swings in September, but I'm estimating 65k. \-Canada: No idea what's going on with tariffs. I will guess 10k, which is still below the historical average, as Tezzlur has imported from Berlin rather than the U.S., I believe. \-Rest of World: where all the fun channel stuffing seems to occur, especially in Turkey now. This tends to bounce around, it had been a consistent 33-38k for almost two years, but went up to 46k at Q2. I will guess 40k, but have no clue. Total around 460k. Kalshi is up over 500k, though. Earlier this week, the WS consensus was still 433k, but that's mostly because those bozos, sorry geniuses, are busy assigning hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation to products and services that do not exist for Tezzlur.

That's nonsense; you can configure neural networks to handle any input or combination of inputs you want. They probably hope that by using the same approach, they will be valued similarly to Tesla.

It's an Leon level gibberish. He's far far away from being the only grifter in the industry. He's just the most successful one who shows other grifters the way to wealth, fame (and impotency).

>we are more **con**fident that removing lidar was a good choice Hmmm...I used to have a list of the dozens of times TechnoGrifter said he was "**con**fident" of some self driving breakthrough. I've never heard of her, but if she's channeling Griftomatic, I'll assume she's a wannabee grifter, until proven otherwise.

At most, TSLA's YOY sales drop from 2024 to 2025 will be 15% overall. I wouldn't expect much worse in 2026. This is still terrible news for TSLA, to be sure...but looking at total sales, and not just suffering markets, I just don't think its possible their sales dip anywhere close to below 1 million next year. I suspect they have "banked" enough credits to pad profitability until at least June of next year - meaning they have a lot of room for deep discounts...and TSLA can give offers that don't cost them much today, such as "free supercharging", to move some metal. They can also kneecap their future selves with really cheap lease deals to keep the metal moving along.

That statement sounds like someone who has no idea how ML works let alone ML with lidar. Aka sounds like the technoking himself. Almost certainty any move like this is driven by cost not capability.

Elon apparently in parts of the epstein files. Of course that lunatic fucked kids as well. Full blown bingo on all ends. He's the devil Musk, Bannon and Thiel named in new Epstein estate documents - POLITICO https://share.google/T726mAnNV8uCCV003

How do you get 15% when its quite clear that even Chinas sales are down that, and the rest of the world is worse. You can see virtually every countries Tesla sales weekly, and it is diving. Even as you say it drops 15% and then another 15%, why is the company valued at 5 times the valuation of Ford, Mercedes, GM Porsche and Stellantis put together and between them they sell 40x more cars than Tesla.

More than that, Berlin is now also producing Model Ys for countries like Canada in order to avoid tariffs against China and the US, or like Turkey... In order to pad the numbers, I guess, otherwise I don't know why you wouldn't send the higher margin Shanghai-made ones over there. I haven't read it, but apparently in a recent investigation by Der Spiegel a plant manager says they're currently running Giga Berlin at a rate of around 21k/month, which is 50% or 67% capacity depending on if you ask bears or bulls, respectively.

>How do you get 15%  For the 1st half of the year, TSLA is down 13.26%. It doesn't matter how many cars they may or may not have sold in Korea on a Tuesday...all that matters is the top line number - and they're down 13.26%. In this present quarter, demand will likely have been pulled forward due to incentives expiring, so its not gonna get any worse...and some of the Q4 deliveries will enjoy subsidies, as long as the "order" is placed in Q3...so several weeks worth of strong demand is built in. Look, I'm trying to be realistic here. Now understand: a 15% YOY drop is really, really, and I can't stress this enough: ***really*** bad. But I can't go running around predicting a near halving of their sales. That's just wishful thinking.

The subsidies are only in the US, no where else, so the subsidies only affect US sales, the rest of the world is still down by the numbers I stated, and as China is its biggest market, and that's down 15%, and Europe over 60%, I just cant see the incentive demand coming Teslas way, the US had a bigger choice of EVs so Tesla weren't guaranteed those sales.

Looking at the propaganda that floats on Twitter about Elmo saving humanity and hence shareholders need to vote in the favor of his pay pkg - I feel real nervous about my short position, already at 160k loss :( People there commenting like “vote for his pkg if you want Elon to save humanity” - crazy times we live in.

I'd go 45k for the EU and the UK, it will soon be less than 10k per month.

One of those open secrets. The kung fu lessons. The direct connections with Kimbal. The Maxwell photo op. Of course Musk was always connected.

They've already delivered ~24k in July & Aug. Sept will be 30k+, perhaps pushing 40k.

So it’s finally confirmed he was projecting on the Thai scuba diver?

Wait, they use an LLM for self driving? Please tell me that’s a joke?

Just live by one simple rule: Never bet on Tesla

Oh yeahhhh. . . We haven’t forgotten about that either, motherfucker.

Why will September be more? There are no tariff deadlines here. Sept will be less than August.

Some Elonversary quotes: 4 years ago today; "*Tesla sales will soon* ***exceed mass of universe***" 6 years ago today: "*Starship will allow us to* ***inhabit other worlds***" Some Elonversary headlines: 9 years ago today: >SpaceX's Elon Musk Unveils Interplanetary Spaceship to **Colonize Mars**...The spaceship will be capable of transporting at least 100 and perhaps as many as 200 people, Musk said. It will also likely feature movie theaters, lecture halls and a restaurant,...*"The architecture allows for a cost per ticket of less than $200,000*," Musk said. "*We think that the* ***cost of moving to Mars*** *ultimately could drop* ***below $100,000****.*"... If everything goes really well, Musk said, the ITS could be launching on its first Mars mission "***within the 10-year*** *time frame."* 7 years ago today: >**Elon Musk** Charged With Securities **Fraud** for Misleading Tweets (420 secured) 6 years ago today: >**Tesla broke national labor law**s when it unfairly prevented workers from unionizing, an administrative law judge in California ruled

Tesla sales in Europe are always higher at the end of each quarter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G1Ijt5hWUAEGnGq.jpg?name=orig

Last week of the $7500 tailwind LOL. Part of my thesis is Elon's CAFE revenue was zeroed out in July with the OBBB double-tapping the EPA market, but we'll see in a month I guess. I had bought my puts before the EC but jesus was that one a disaster. And TSLA's up 33% two months out LOL, with everybody raising their pt from $400 to $500 like the good monkeys they are.

It will come down. Who knows when and why, but it will happen eventually. Getting named in the Epstein files should be the icing on the cake, but the numbers will matter more than anything at the end of the day. The latest antics are ultimately a smokescreen for the fact that sales are terrible, profit is even worse, and it isn’t turning around anytime soon.

It's starting to make sense, Epstein might have died and Maxwell in prison but all these billionaire pedophiles still need access to kids. If only we knew of a billionaire with private jets that don't like them being tracked... https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/14/elon-jet-the-twitter-account-tracking-elon-musks-flights-was-permanently-suspended/

It's legitimately insane *anyone* believes that in 2025. The drugged out psycopath isn't saving anything, unless "humanity" in this case is your all in portfolio.

5 year Elonversaries: *"We do see Tesla reaching* ***20M vehicles/year*** *probably before* ***2030****"* Lets assume TSLA delivers 1.65 million cars in 2025...all they have to do is grow sales by 64.7% per year to make this 20 million goal! With all the new products coming out, this should be no problem. *"I’m a huge* ***fan of small retail investors****. Will make sure they get* ***top priority****. You can hold me to it."* Editor's note: TSLA's re-incorporation in Texas includes new voting rules that make it impossible for retail investors holding less than 3% (currently $44 billion) to file derivative lawsuits to prevent things like...I dunno: paying Technoking a gazillion dollars, bailing out Technokoking's loser relatives, siphoning off talent to Technoking's other companies, or using slave labor in some cobalt mine. So, they structurally can't "hold him to it", now can they.

that investor quote was for the Starlink IPO; when I was a long I was discounting SMR's 20M in 2030 predictions down to 6M, or GM scale. But even then I knew that would require robotaxi, since Elon's no-dealership business model can't scale to GM-size w/o becoming GM, and that's the last thing he wants.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs/edit?gid=930363066#gid=930363066 TSLA's market cap is now greater than #2 - 25 combined

> All of Europe hates Elmo, sales have drpped 62%. You're literally responding to a comment chain that clearly shows with sourced data that the drop across the EU+EFTA+UK is -32.6% YTD.

All while selling numbers close to number #46 Mazda

FSD has to be just hard enough that Elon can solve it by the end of the year, but not any harder, and also not any less hard so other companies lacking Elon's genius also can't solve it. What a joke.