Spoiler alert, they aren't There are? 200-300 companies making humanoid robots or something close to that number, i'd be surprised if Tesla is even top 10
They aren’t. It’s a con.
He just terminated the Dojo project. That was supposed to integrate XAi, the Optimus project, “FSD”, etc. curious how much they spent on that project now. Just to end it.
It's less dangerous, except if it falls on the cat with its washing machine weight
That's the neat part: they're not.
They're not.
They won't. At best they will make a shitty robot and then they'll say "We want to get out of the robot business, we want to be in XYZ." Then they'll want to get out of XYZ, rinse, repeat. That's how a stock scam works.
Stock price jumps up.
It’s just to inflate the stock price. He’s proven that he doesn’t need to produce anything and the stock still goes up. The whole thing is a grift.
This sort of question is going to make the stock go up!
Right exactly Self driving is a regulatory nightmare. It won’t be achieved by Engineers, but by Lawyers Humanoid robots less so
The real treasure are friends (and money) they make along the way.
Why everyone with Basic logic get this but big Investors and hedge fonds still belive in this scam?
In order to make sense it will be entrusted to chop vegetables, change nappies, and all sorts of things that are potentially at least as dangerous as being in control of a car. As far as I know, the airbag mechanisms in a Tesla car are entirely separate from the end-to-end neural network madness, whereas there are no such safeguards to prevent Optimus from chopping up the cat, or the baby, instead of the vegetables. I honestly think it will never be widely released for the reasons the OP implies. FSD/robotaxi are stuck several nines away from where they would need to be for meaningful autonomy, and the house of cards will collapse before either this issue, or the more challenging autonomous humanoid robotic one, can be positively resolved.
Probably like bottom 10
😅
They’ve solved self driving.
Don’t ask questions, buy stock!
Dojo was tailored for specific tasks related to Tesla's needs, which did not directly align with the requirements of LLMs, which is where all the money is at. It got crushed by general purpose GPUs and TPUs in the race to please the matrix gods ruling over the linear algebra industrial complex. (In chips, general purpose beats special purpose eventually. Every time.)
TSLA might actually make a profit if they focused on industrial automation robotics. The humanoid butler that can lead you to a Diet Coke is just a stupid novelty. But I'm sure it will bump the stock by another 50%.
If they were so good, they would put a robot in a 'FSD' Tesla. This combination should work 110% when you take Teslas claims about their technology serious.
They make stock and vibes. The rest doesn't matter.
It's like the emperor's new clothes. They don't make money off their stock if they admit it is overvalued
They don't have to solve anything. They just have to keep making claims without fulfilling them and the stock price will go up. I heard optimus will be able to fly by February 30 2029
…in a tunnel
I tab speeder and goes real fast
Investors know if they give Elon all their money he will just end up buying a real robotics company and claim he invented robots and everyone will be incredibly rich and live happily ever after.
Same way F'Elon rolls out everything -- cheat. Put humans in robot suits and as 'safety drivers' of Robotaxis. I am just not understanding how the 'world's richest man' can't/won't spend the dough required to do the due diligence behind the innovations promised. Oh yeah, and when F'Elon's limited attention span shifts to other projects. then what happens to the old projects ? (as in: Boring Company, DOGE, 3rd Party Government announcement) Just go back to South Africa and leave U.S. alone
If the TSLA bot is sold to the public, people won't want far right propagandist drughead Elon surveilling them in their home 24/7 so it'll fail.
So basically they didn't think about their multi-billion dollar purchase? Tesla doesn't do LLMs. X.ai does. It why it was reported Tesla diverted all their chips to x.ai. It's a major red flag.
I don't know much about Dojo, but I do find it remarkable that these three things represent an over-reliance on machine learning and are products that are ultimately doomed to fail because of that overreliance. On the other hand, SpaceX and Tesla Energy, whose success relies much more on human expertise as opposed to ML, are far more successful.
They won’t
Go watch the Wizard of Oz. Elon is the wizard.
How do you keep a tesla stock holder in suspense? FIND OUT NEXT MONTH WHEN WE LAUNCH THE TESLA NEVER ENDING MYSTERY BOOK. It comes free in the roadster when it ships!
After robots don’t pan out it will be laser beams on sharks
I think by now they realized they have the power to manipulate the market with their forecasts and price estimates... so most likely they are just making money off of this bullshit
It's the Cybertruck again where Musk must be leading the roadmap because nothing they're doing makes any sense. They have a much better shot of solving self-driving and I'd say they're galaxies away from solving that.
By lying
They aren't. Elon Musk is a liar.
just more fluff to keep the stock price from crashing
Have you seen their robot. I call him hop along
They solved.. Nothing.
The other answers all make sense but I also think there was some human nature going on because some of those investors are so arrogant they aren't willing to believe much less admit they made a mistake. IMO ego combined with the other answers are all playing a part.
Exactly, at some point the facade cracks and it all comes crumbling down to a reasonable valuation. Who knows when that will happen. The pipe dream of robotaxis will kick the can down the road for a while.
"Sometime next year, probably in the fall..." - Some genius every year for over a decade
The robot with DTs?
Especially successful after someone gutted the FAA, NASA, and other oversight organizations. Then recently some other asshat shuttered the Hyundai battery factory being built.
To the moon!!
They aren't going out of business, but it could easily drop $300 like it did in 2022, down to $100 and still have over a 75 PE.
They changed the definition of FSD Problem solved... 🤷
They aren't. It's a scam just like self-driving.
They are not even on the radar for people that work for real companies in the robotics field.
Shhhhh. That’s the grift
Tesla has always been detached from reality, why stop now. Investors are so far into the hype the truth is the fiction.
They can always leverage their stock value to purchase one of those companies that is close to going to market, rename the robot something idiotic like Ximov and then fire everyone who actually knows how it works.
They thought about it but when the dojo architecture was laid down by some brilliant engineers including Jim Keller, LLMs were a twinkle in Jeff Dean's eyes. They optimized dojo to do image recognition at really high frame rates. It was meant to help Tesla train FSD by processing the mountains of video they've received from customer vehicles. Now, the cost of keeping up with a general purpose architecture is hopeless.
Do people really believe they can’t solve self driving? My car drives me 1.5 hours to/from work 3 days a week and I very rarely have issues. It’s navigated around crashes, through stoplights where the power is out (where it turns into a 4-way stop) and when I get to work it waits for me to scan my badge and then proceeds into the parking lot once the gate opens up. As far as I’m concerned it’s more advanced than any other supervised autonomy system available in consumer cars right now (note, said consumer cars. I’ve driven in Waymo and theirs definitely feels pretty advanced and safe). Just 1-2 years ago their FSD was so bad I had to take over at least 5 times per trip. Now I can go the whole week without an intervention. They’re making substantial progress, I almost can’t believe some people truly think they’re not going to crack it. Unless somehow their whole engineering team decides to quit I’m pretty confident they’ll achieve true autonomy at some point in the near future.
Tesla will make a general purpose robot. But it won’t sell and will meet a fate making the cybertruck look like the biggest hit. There is no practical application for a humanoid robot. These are entertainment modules, nothing more. Watch videos of a 300mm semiconductor Fab if you want to see real robots in action. Also predicting their robotaxi will be vastly inferior to Waymo once they remove the safety driver. So I guess they have cars?
They can't even get self driving in a one lane tunnel with no intersections nor cross traffic.
So TSLA will buy one and slap Elon stickers on it
Industrial automation actually has synergy with car manufacturing so it would make sense if they pursued that. But of course, it's Elon so they're off doing something infeasible instead.
here take some more special K. Then you believe what lord elon says
Why... LIDAR, of course!!
However the stock will will still go up.The stock is heavily manipulated, I will not be surprise if he himself is funding the stock manipulation team.
Big investors and hedge funds believe retail investors will believe the scam and pump the stock.
There’s hundreds of companies decades ahead in proprietary tech such as Boston Dynamics. Factories already have their robots in place. Sex-bots are already developed, realistic, and honestly the only application a humanoid is good for. Optimus can’t even fill a bag of popcorn. The CFO and other top execs have been dumping shares - not buying. Top talent has been leaving in droves. Wall Street/hedge funds believe in a stock only as long as retail does, and exit before retail investors figure it out. Could be next week or could be next year. Tesla will likely still be around in the long term - like BlackBerry is today.
Just curious, what environment do you normally use FSD to drive in? City, rural, highway, day, night, plains, mountains, sun, rain, snow? It makes a big difference
They don't have to actually deliver on it - they successfully moved the goalposts from self driving to robots, which are years and years away. Now they can get back to promises and marketing.
Are you kidding? The regulatory nightmare that is autonomous humanoid robots is an order of magnitude worse. Who will insure a home with an automaton in it? What if it lights the house on fire? Don’t worry though, they will fail as a company long before it makes it to retail sales.
It's all just copium.
Good thing I never told my insurance company about my Roomba.
There’s no way they’ll catch up to Honda, let alone Boston Dynamics.
Eh ... I still by a little TSLZ with my end of the month dividend remains - after the snowball. It's like buying a lottery ticket, but the odds are a lot better I reckon.
No they don't. They feeding the hype for stock surge and short term ROIs.
Never were going to in the first place.
another false promise by a snake oil salesman.
There is the technical problems, which are substantial, especially if they don’t rethink alternative sensors. The regulatory hurdles may be even greater. They can’t accept liability for the fuckups but there is no way to blame the owner if they aren’t driving.
😂
!@#$%^&*()_
That is a very valid question to be honest
Trumpers will pay a subscription for that.
Self-driving is a nightmare problem with endless edge cases, a home robot can fake usefulness in safe environments. Tesla’s robot will exist but don’t expect it to actually replace humans anytime soon.
Elon is a liar. Fools believe him.
They already have Full Self-Driving (Supervised) cars. So, they can make General Purpose (Specialized) robots that are fully supervised and operated by humans.
[They do this during the shareholder meeting](https://giphy.com/gifs/foxinternational-simpsons-independent-alarm-3o6UBiAQ9Ws8UWdmqA)
>Do people really believe they can’t solve self driving? My car drives me 1.5 hours to/from work 3 days a week and I very rarely have issues. "Very rarely have issues" isn't self-driving, it's you supervising the computer. Tesla has been trying for over a decade to make the final step to actual self-driving, and hasn't quite gotten there yet.
>So basically they didn't think Standard Operating Procedure
They're gonna be doing alright as long as everything is deregulated like it is.
something something Robotaxis in half of America by the end of the year something It's not an investment - I fully understand just how bonkers the institutional bag-holding on Tesla is. Never bet against a cult stock. But yeah, that TSLZ is so cheap now. If I have 12 or $15 left at the end of the month I hoover it up. The bag is gonna drop someday. They ain't go nothing.
They've diverted all R&D funding into the robot, and then the robot will drive the Tesla's. 6 months away. 1 year tops.
"Very rarely" multiplied by millions of cars = too frequently.
They are not. Building a durable robot with ability to react smoothly and do is not just an AI problem. It’s not just an engineering problem. It’s also a material problem. Being able to build things small enough and strong enough to handle repeated movements against pressure (whatever holding, moving, etc) is incredible difficult. Doing it for a demo where money is no object, the materials exist and the precision exist. Doing it hundreds or even thousands at a reasonable cost? Nope not there yet and Musk’s love of shortcuts makes him a poor candidate to get there first. Scaling is never as simple as “like the first time but more.”
Investors don't have to believe in Tesla. They just need to believe that enough people after them will also believe (in either Tesla or the pyramid, it doesn't matter)
by 2030 optimus will be able to smoke weed as a joke feature, Musk will communicate it as an unprecedented breakthrough and TSLA to 800
Roombas....they're gonna sell roombas with the promise that you can unlock fsd (full service droid) by the end of the year ...then next year....then next year, then hey, look mars! Then they'll finally tell you to get fsd you need new Roomba hw and the cycle will begin again
You dropped a zero.
The Theranos scam ran for 12 years, and that was all serious money. I blame the rot of anti-intellectualism. Everyone thinks that they are smarter than the experts in the field, so they are easily manipulated. In my own little corner of the world, I never heard anyone on my employer's investor calls who know squat shit about the industry at hand.
Elon will solve AGI by end of this year, trust me bro /s
They can't figure out car wipers. That tells alot.
Just like they are going to make a style driving car - out of thin air
And none of them has a valid business model yet. Not a single application that could not be accomplished much cheaper by other means. This is actual the robotics bubble. Humanoids may never become a business.
You just don't get AI. Sure the robot is a clumsy idiot now - with no official current prototype, no preliminary sales, no development partners, no use cases. Consider just that, and it seems like thin ground on which to foretell a trillion dollar business. But this is just the beginning. It doesn't matter how bad the robot is. It learns from every mistake. It can rebuild itself, design new computers to improve it's AI, teach itself how to improve. And the AI can learn to improve itself. AI is not only the greatest boon to hype since the invention of the whoopee cushion, but it is also the greatest salvation to mediocrity. It makes present inadequacy irrelevant. To the stock price.
It's exciting to see all the types of robots but at the same time im wondering if robots become so good that money is no longer important to companies.
Self driving promises = trilliion market cap Therefore, robot promise = profit Musk logic. Worked so far.
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They dont, but FOMO
Getting the government to pick up the tab for your R&D is great for your business's sustainability. Exploding rockets aside, they are the most successful private launch company, and their competition is not even close to reaching them. And don't take what I'm saying as a compliment of Musk. IMO, he has very little to do with the success of SpaceX.
They can’t even solve the window wipers
As long as they don’t let it drive…they’ll be fine.
They'll buy a Chinese company. Their Optimus stuff already came from a UCLA robotics lab
If you answer any question related to Tesla with : "it is a grift". Every dilema goes away.
They can't solve "car" well, let alone mechanical assistant. Tolerances as demonstrated in the EV builds guarantee no working product in actual fine engineering. They do however have a reasonable product line in market manipulation stock PR..
They don't believe Tesla will succeed, they believe they'll make money on Tesla stock, which is not the same. It is basically a cryptocurrency that also brands cars.
Same way they can make the new roadster.
the robot doesnt even need to be autonomous to be extremely valuable, tele-operated robots is going to be a massive labor hack in the future
Robots have already been solved. Tesla will end up buying some Chinese or Japanese company and stick their name on it.
Well, no matter what you might feel about Musk (I think he is a giant dangerous moron), SpaceX is factually doing some impressive things. They have reduced the cost of getting things into orbit, and thats why NASA pays them to do it. Because the alternatives would be more expensive.
The industrial robot market is far too competitive. Sof of the biggest players have less than 1% market share.
Not once its earnings go negative
Tesla lost money every year prior to 2019, right? Right now it's priced at 300 PE, which would be fine for an extremely fast growing company. Tesla has sales declines the last several quarters, the opposite of growth.
Tesla can’t keep talented engineers. Gone are the days they can innovate. Good talent won’t work for Musk.
They don't.
Turns out it’s way more difficult to make a self driving car than AGI /s
Because they only care about making money, if Elon and the big boys can convince everyone else to hop on board they're making money. They could care less if Elon actually delivers a working robot.
Same reason people thought we'd have humanoid robots taking over all manual jobs within a few years of Hondas ASIMO being shown to the public in 2000. The reason is people want to believe in a high-tech sci-fi future being right around the corner so badly that they will throw out their critical thinking.
I agree with people who say they won't, While at the same time, I feel that the use case for a slow moving, non-life and death "robot slowly walking around and doing nominal tasks" could actually be easier than self driving in a lot of ways. In self driving, you have two vehicles converging on each other- at maybe 120mpg or greater. You could have vehicles coming from various other angles and pedestrians or animals - all at speeds fast enough to kill. Sure an autonomous robot has to learn a lot more skills, but the risk of deadly failure (at least for most initial use cases like novel entertainment) seems a lot lower. Using only cameras to detect range and speed at 5 mph is a hell of a lot easier than at 60 (or combined 120mpg). The weight and strength on a Tesla bot doesn't make it a mass casualty weapon. If it messes up at 5mph, it bumps into a wall, or a dog or a person. Humans do this all the time without injury. I always thought the camera only autonomy works better for the use case of robots than it does any high speed vehicle. You may not require the multiple sensors for many use cases and the energy and processing cost could be lower. But that doesn't mean it is the best tech. A Tesla bot may still need to cross a road or serve food in a Tesla diner without getting hit. All of sudden judging high speed vehicles could be important. My take on camera only tech. I think this was perhaps where musk was aiming the entire time. It totally makes sense to use multiple sensors at high speeds. I think he was trying to use cars to also train his robots
Get unpaid interns to pilot the robots
Add in with Theranos, they destroyed anyone that tried to bring out the truth.
Good point. George Shultz, investor and board member, went after his own grandson for speaking the truth. Some of these companies are cult-like.
George Schultz and his grandson is exactly who I was thinking of.
Because that approach worked so well with Twitter.
Even if they do who’s going to buy them? The same majority of people who will not buy any product or services he is associated with?
Cause the markets have been decoupled from logic. That’s not how they work no matter how much people try to push analysis. Especially now with small investors it’s all on feel
They can't even solve their Pinto problem. 148 people burnt in a Pintesla since 2013. Most of them alive.
Scummy MAGA family radicalized their own kid 😡
it’s just a lie to get the investors to keep investing
I’m saying it won’t have a PE ratio once it’s earnings go negative (technically it would be a negative PE ratio).
They. Are. Not. It is all smoke and mirrors
Because there's two ways to make money off the market. The first is to invest prudently based on underlying economics. The second is to play the market itself. The latter, due to greater volatility, has the potential to be MUCH more profitable.
I don't get all this hate online for their fsd or their cars. Im no fan of Elon either but I own a model 3 that does 95% of my driving flawlessly, it gets confused occasionally but the vast majority of the time it drives fine. I think people just hate Elon too much to even entertain the possibility of it being decent. Everyone I know that actually owns a Tesla loves it.
They aren't
Best we can expect is an autonomous Nazi.
>Why everyone with Basic logic get this but big Investors and hedge fonds still belive in this scam? Because they plan to grab their seat *right before* the music stops. Screw everyone else.
Tesla makes OK electric cars, crappy solar panels, and hype. Nothing else.
or sell cars
Devil’s Advocate here. Tesla’s gargantuan capitalization and vast vertical manufacturing capabilities allow them to buy the tech they need and scale it to take over the market. We are learning that AI can make things change quickly.
They will buy the technology and hire the experts. Few companies have deeper pockets and the vertically integrated manufacturing capacity to meet demand when they become practical.
Don’t laugh, this will eventually happen. Someday when a humanoid robot picks you up at the airport and puts your bags in the trunk, you will remember this comment.
The claims about dojo being specific to vision driving data were always nonsense. It was designed as a more general purpose chip than GPUs at the cost of performance on SIMD tasks.
Hype. Hype. Hype!
They aren't... they can't.... and saying they will is just literally begging for money. Bite the bullet. Tesla is a dead end con job of a company. It's 'owner' is a con man with no talent for anything but theft.
How are they going to make a general purpose robot if they can't even make the windshield wipers work properly...
Elon needs to learn about the limitations of lying and bull$hi++ing in order to attain tremendous wealth. He’s halfway between Earth and Alpha Centauri and his dilithium crystals are looking like three week old bananas.
Is Space X even really profitable? Aren't most of their launches just Starlink?
I wonder if Amazon will have a better performing robot before Tesla. Musk has figured out a way to just make promises and never deliver.
I think all of the billions in R&D and showcases of dancing robots will end up with two models. One will carry and shoot a gun The other will have a vagina
A male and a female.
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