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TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 18

AutoModerator | 2025-08-18 10:02 | 47 views

We laugh at your "giga". For TSLA talk, and flotsam and jetsam not warranting its own post...

Comments (139)
FrogmanKouki 2025-08-18 10:02

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1mn8vwu/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_aug_11/

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-18 10:04

So just a month and half until the end of the EV tax credit. What levers will Tesla pull in 3 months to move product?

MarchMurky8649 2025-08-18 10:18

I wonder if they will decide to sell their entire US-based inventory for whatever they can get, on the basis that, ceteris paribus, each car will, in effect, be worth $7,500 less to them if Tesla hasn't sold it by October 1st. I suppose they could loan people the cost of the car, deliver it to them, immediately buy it back for $200 less, and charge something like $100 interest on the loan. In practice they would just need to advertise that, albeit probably worded differently, "if you sign up to our little ruse and agree to be the legal owner of a Tesla for 10 minutes, we'll drive one to your home, hand you a $100 bill, then drive it away again." Tesla would then own a large number of ultra low mileage used cars which they could sell at their leisure. Everyone would know they were effectively new. Is there any reason they *wouldn't* do this, or something similar?

morbiiq 2025-08-18 12:24

Surely that’s just elaborate fraud.

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-18 12:33

TSLA's playbook is a bit more simple: Just lie. At least that's what they did when subsidies ended in Canada: >Canada investigates whether Tesla wrongfully helped itself to a subsidy-fueled sales boom They ended up selling 2 cars/minute in 4 different stores, for a month: [https://fortune.com/2025/03/26/elon-musk-tesla-under-investigation-canada-wrongfully-boosting-sales/](https://fortune.com/2025/03/26/elon-musk-tesla-under-investigation-canada-wrongfully-boosting-sales/) They'll just have a sudden surge of leases, since they pocket that tax credit themselves on the front end to discount the lease.

androvsky8bit 2025-08-18 13:55

As much as I dislike defending Tesla, the truth still matters to me. https://electrek.co/2025/07/14/it-turns-out-tesla-canadas-shady-43m-incentive-grab-was-above-board-after-all/ Hopefully people can agree that Electrek isn't a pro-Elon shill outfit.

torokunai 2025-08-18 14:08

did my occasional drive to the coast yesterday, via I-5/CA-152/US-101. gotta say there were more than the usual car carriers with new Teslas coming south from the factory, like maybe 2X. but of course TSLA's $1T market cap isn't based on how many cars Fremont makes . . .

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-18 14:12

From your link: >Electrek’s Take >**Questions still remain** about this incentive. As [pointed out by the Canadian Press](https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/business/millions-of-dollars-in-tesla-ev-rebate-claims-were-legitimate-ottawa-says/article_302d4a42-654e-5e44-a69c-cbffef552d8c.html), **it’s still not clear** whether Tesla’s incentive claims were for cars sold on that weekend, or for cars sold prior to that weekend and delivered all in a lump. The author doesn't claim to know the "truth"...IMHO its still a very open question as to what the hell happened. And I'm sure the reporters that asked TSLA for an explanation got nothing back from them besides a poop emoji.

Monk315 2025-08-18 14:39

Thanks for that, I've been waiting to hear the results of this and hadn't seen it yet.  The top comment is interesting.

ILikeCatsAndSquids 2025-08-18 14:47

Stock up about 50 percent year over year with a PE ratio of nearly 200 for no good reason.

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-18 14:52

In a stroke of genius, the BOD just locked in Technoking for at least another 2 years. Think about that - access to a once in a generation brain for 2 entire years. Who knows what type of renderings Elon will come up with in that time!!! Of course the stonk is up.

androvsky8bit 2025-08-18 15:18

Either we trust the Canadian government to do a proper investigation, or we parse the phrase "were determined to legitimately represent cars sold before January 12" as narrowly as humanly possible to dig out a scenario where Tesla defrauded the Canadian government, who in turn rolled over and let it happen while still leaving evidence in the form of a press release that could be parsed that narrowly. While still asserting it's legitimate when it clearly couldn't be. I can imagine an agency having some weird sympathizers, but this was an extremely high profile case that had to have some oversight. I get the Canadian press's frustration, but even electrek's first article about it acknowledged it could just be a backlog that Tesla sat on.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-18 19:18

Well, if Musk ever departs they will have to admit defeat on so much vaporware... It's less complex to keep him on board and keep pumping

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-18 19:31

My operating theory is the BOD feels they can now count on at least 2 more years to exercise options and cash out their stonk.

Top_Junket2991 2025-08-18 21:31

This. They know if musk leaves stock crashes. So in the best interest of stock holders, everyone wants to keep musk as ceo even if he isn't doing anything.  Crazy how having token ceo adds some 800b market cap.

Objective-Lychee-506 2025-08-18 22:26

The same car carriers probably drive back north again in the middle of the night, twelve hours later, to make the same trip south again tomorrow. It's all for show. Wouldn't surprise me.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-18 22:31

Straight to be dumped in the Pacific.

y4udothistome 2025-08-19 00:00

Exactly he always has something up his skirt to kick the can further down the road

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-19 01:11

Well Musk always delivers he's just off on his timeline

SonicQuesadilla 2025-08-19 02:31

Tesla's (TSLA) PEG ratio is currently 6.42 (as of August 12, 2025). This is based on a forward P/E ratio of 185.19 and a 5-year expected growth rate. A PEG ratio above **1** is generally considered overvalued, suggesting that the stock's price may be higher than justified by its expected growth

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-19 11:11

There is no growth, car sales are in decline, optimus is years away, and robotaxi is years from adding any meaningful revenue.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-19 12:12

So what you're saying is "buy the dip"

h1ghrise 2025-08-19 12:13

[Tesla officially launches Model YL with 6 seats, starting at \~$47,000 | Electrek](https://electrek.co/2025/08/18/tesla-launches-model-yl-6-seats-starting-47000/) They launched a new model :D

Dry-Historian2300 2025-08-19 13:08

Well said

ILikeCatsAndSquids 2025-08-19 14:01

“Everything is computer” except the driver, the car, etc.

Digg-Sucks 2025-08-19 15:38

>Tesla has officially launched the Model YL, a new, larger Model Y with 6 seats, **in China** I thought MAGA didn't like China? Fascinating how this company is China first with all of its product changes.

ILikeCatsAndSquids 2025-08-19 15:44

How does that William Blair analyst have a job?

Digg-Sucks 2025-08-19 15:45

>William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reviewed Tesla’s robo-taxi service and came away impressed. “The comparisons are immediate and stark—when we drove past Waymo and Zoox vehicles outfitted with their complex sensor suite, they stuck out like a sore thumb,” Appearance of the vehicle likely has very little impact on whether people will ride in it. >robo-taxi felt like a more luxurious service [than Waymo] for half the cost, and the driving felt more humanlike Is TSLA making $ at that current cost? That should be the question. >Dorsheimer values Tesla’s robo-taxi business at almost $300 a share, or more than $900 billion $900 billion for a non functioning product.

Karma_X5-Chameleon 2025-08-19 17:05

I asked Chat GPT what would break the narrative of the cult that drives the stock because, IMO, the Tesla stock is almost completely narrative driven at this point. Sales are declining, insiders are bailing, talent is in exodus, brand is eroding with luxury and middle market consumers, credits (regulatory and consumer) are disappearing... There is nothing happening there that would drive the value in the next few years -- except R&D in speculative technology where competitors are actually ahead. Here is what GPT said about the cult of stock "dip-buyers": "Tesla’s stock is held together by **belief in infinite optionality**. The moment one of the narrative pillars (autonomy, margins, luxury brand, or Musk-as-genius) breaks in a way that *can’t be patched over by story*, the stock shifts from being a “tech cult” multiple to being a **cyclical automaker** — which implies a share price far lower." I feel like all of these "autonomy, margins, luxury brand, or Musk-as-genius" seem to fall apart daily. Is the meme stock cult untouchable?

torokunai 2025-08-19 17:23

well as a carmaker, TSLA is worth ~$65B or so, $20/share.

torokunai 2025-08-19 17:24

plus loss of CAFE/ZEV credits. Couple billion/year, no biggie.

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-19 17:25

Luxurious? Is the safety drive carrying around a jar of Grey Poupon? These are cars with plastic seats and poor legroom in the back.

MarchMurky8649 2025-08-19 17:51

I am expecting this to be Tesla's last profitable quarter. If you think I'm incorrect about this, feel free to discuss, but what I type next is predicated on that hypothesis. As soon as negative earnings start to be reported, presumably in Jan 2026, TSLA becomes eligible for deletion from the S&P 500, and when it is deleted, sellers will, for the first time, completely overwhelm dip-buyers, and there'll be free-fall.

Karma_X5-Chameleon 2025-08-19 18:09

Is there a grace period on the earnings requirement for inclusion in the S&P 500?

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-19 18:20

I think the credit sales likely have contracts in place that will extend sales and revenue beyond this quarter. IMHO, could take till mid next year for that to fully unwind. And I think this giving up on Dojo is a signal that TSLA will quit pouring money into data centers, and will likely scale back all R & D. They're also doing things to move the metal that doesn't cost anything now - ie free lifetime supercharging in Canada. This will not be a rapid process...Tesla will crawl along for a while.

lovely_sombrero 2025-08-19 19:08

You asked ChatGPT?

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-19 20:02

Wait till the fire sale of the Berlin factory, that'll surely sure up one of those quarters.

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-19 20:05

I cant see them making a profit this quarter. It will be along time until another one.

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-19 20:06

I'm expecting that announcement any day, Euro sales have crashed.

GarlicSweaty4987 2025-08-19 20:28

Are there any positive Tesla stories that come out without “could” in it? Tesla could be the leading …blah blah blah. Tesla could invent a Time Machine. Tesla could end up as a religion. Never saw a company covered like this in news

Monk315 2025-08-19 20:30

There is no rigid rule and any removal will be discretionary.  Seeing Tesla removed from the S&P in the next few months is a fever dream.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-19 20:38

That's been the story since, what, 2020 when the Y came out? They could do a lot of stuff. In actuality all they did was release a mega flop dumpster, two fine enough refreshes, two half assed refreshes, and a diner.

SunshineSeattle 2025-08-19 20:42

Yo but mars... We launched a car into orbit...

Gobias_Industries 2025-08-20 11:13

Why should anybody give a shit what you asked a computer or what the computer responded?

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-20 12:15

They released images of a new model, no actual car. Maybe getting delivered towards the end of the year.

lovely_sombrero 2025-08-20 12:58

>Are there any positive Tesla stories that come out without “could” in it? Tesla has revolutionized both the Model 3 and Model Y in China. The Model 3 gets a new innovation (invented by Elon Musk himself) called the indicator stalk. Model Y gets a slightly longer version called the Model Y L that has 7 seats, but it is still almost impossible for anyone to use the back two seats.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-20 13:14

Actually... The Y L is only 6 seats. It's a 2 2 2 configuration

lovely_sombrero 2025-08-20 13:51

That is an even bigger innovation. I'm expecting the Tesla stock to skyrocket by at least one Toyota this week.

MarchMurky8649 2025-08-20 14:24

Publication of [this Bloomberg podcast about Musk and drugs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPT6KCf1MeE) seems to have coincided with quite a drop in the share price. I am fully aware of both the pro hoc ergo propter hoc and the cum hoc ergo propter hoc logical falacies, but wondered whether anyone might have an alternative explanation? EDIT: Or perhaps it was the [double](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2025/08/20/elon-musks-self-driving-tesla-lies-are-finally-catching-up-to-him/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forbes) [whammy](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2025/08/20/what-is-the-robotaxi-vision-thats-worth-trillions/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forbes) of Forbes articles?

biomassive 2025-08-20 14:46

I think it has more to do with the ruling in California, a successful class action lawsuit against the company could cost Tesla what is several quarters of net income at this point. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/tesla-drivers-can-pursue-class-action-over-self-driving-claims-judge-rules-2025-08-19/

noobgiraffe 2025-08-20 14:49

Entire market is down today. A few of tech stocks I follow are also 4% down.

CompoteDeep2016 2025-08-20 15:02

Nah it has nothing to do with negative news. It should be down - 10 on the news. Today's move is just the market

GarlicSweaty4987 2025-08-20 21:02

But I thought it wasn’t a car company? Shouldn’t it be skyrocketing by NVDAs now?

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-21 01:35

Zuckerberg/Meta has defunded its AI division, says there is no money in it.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 02:19

The amount these companies spend on AI is massively unsustainable. OpenAI / Meta / Google have profitable businesses to fall back on though. Musk has private equity and doing his best to suck value out of Tesla (which isn't even profitable anymore).

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 02:30

There's also another report going around that most AI spending is unsurprisingly going into sales and marketing and generating no real value for 95% of the companies using it. There's a copy here: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 02:31

Just for the record too both the AI operations and Reality Labs have been a massive money suck for Facebook specifically. Funny how all these tech visionaries and geniuses just end up blowing investor money and chasing trends isn't it?

[deleted] 2025-08-21 05:03

*Earlier this week, it was reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had told a group of journalists that he believes AI is in a bubble.*  *However, many tech analysts and investors disagree with the notion of an AI bubble.*  *“Altman is the golden child of the AI Revolution, and there could be aspects of the AI food chain that show some froth over time, but overall,* ***we believe tech stocks are undervalued*** *relative to this 4th Industrial Revolution,” said tech analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.* Dan Ives now knows more about AI than the people running AI companies. Yes folks, we are definitely NOT in a bubble. 🤡🤡🤡

bbbbbbbbbblah 2025-08-21 05:57

not surprised given how MS are trying to shoehorn copilot into everything. big fan of putting it into excel, which many people use for tasks that are important and require accuracy, with the disclaimer that it should not be used for tasks that are important, require accuracy, have legal or ethical ramifications, etc

JattiKyrpa 2025-08-21 07:13

Yeah, these venture capitalist fools are some of the worst hype following idiots around.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 08:12

I've found some value in AI in generating boilerplate code. And as a general replacement for Stack Overflow for common programming questions. Anything even remotely novel and/or proprietary AI is basically useless. Which is the actual challenging parts of engineering to begin with. Definitely not burn a billion a month type value.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-21 09:30

Ives is bullish on AI because it will help create even more ridiculous outfits for him to wear.

Tind_L_Laylor 2025-08-21 13:18

Didn't he just hire some AI kid for $300 kajillion dollars?

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-21 13:30

TSLA has been flat for months Is it the end of q3 yet? I want to be entertained...

gwenver 2025-08-21 15:12

Oops! Massive Grok chat leak... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrkmk00jy0o A "privacy disaster in progress"...

gwenver 2025-08-21 15:19

Does this mean they'll take that fucking button off WhatsApp?

wootnootlol 2025-08-21 16:18

Tech has a huge graveyard full of amazing companies who ignored new trends. Not saying those investments are smart or not, but that's just the nature of tech business - if you don't chase new trends you WILL get bankrupt.

noobgiraffe 2025-08-21 16:31

I vaguely remember Elon shitting on openai because their shared chat were getting indexed as well.

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 16:55

Pretty much matches what I'm reading. AI doesn't have zero value for coding but the idea that any idiot is going to just write prompts and create safe, functional and performant software is a complete fantasy. It'll give you situationally better autocomplete, write boilerplate and provide quicker answers than navigating poorly written API documentation but that's largely the extent of it. Honestly I think the boilerplate stuff could also be solved with simpler automation techniques or simply better framework/library design in many cases too. Truth of the matter is we've largely been here before decades ago with WSIWYG editors and how everyone thought you were going to replace software engineers with graphic designers because they would just let someone draw a functional website or application. LLMs are a pretty powerful tool and the transformers they're built on are insanely flexible for a lot of potential applications but the hype around them is striking as similar to blockchain hype. Yeah you could use a block chain to do a bunch of things but usually it's a heavy clunky solution that doesn't perform as well as the alternatives.

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 16:56

Yeah I think it's a matter of moderation and I'm not faulting companies for chasing trends, more the idea the that these visionary leaders aren't really visionaries or leaders when it comes to emerging technology most of the time.

Far_Addition1210 2025-08-21 17:03

Just read the article, its bad!

Objective-Lychee-506 2025-08-21 17:14

\* There's negative money in it

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 17:22

Ahh what a time to be alive in this country. Grok is apparently reciting the Anarchist's Cookbook for aspiring drug lords and Trump's got thousands of troops and federal law enforcement combing Washington D.C to arrest every landscaper and door dasher who doesn't have their papers on them at that very moment.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-21 17:22

Today marks the first month of the diner! I'd say it's made a lasting impact already. Where else can you charge your car and have the option of a burger, a hot dog, AND THREE sandwiches?! Food trucks offer more variety

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 18:52

I think it certainly *will* eliminate a lot of consulting work, especially the big Indian ones like Tata etc. But they're mostly parasites anyways. I think the real risk is junior engineers just don't even learn how to code properly anymore. The jury is still out on that one, hopefully good programs clamp down on that.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 19:06

The reviews after the initial stan bunch are also pretty horrible, shockingly. Overpriced, crap product, poor service. Truly the "Tesla" Diner.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-21 19:27

At least you get the Tesla experience for $37 rather than $37k

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 19:29

The current top review ends with this fantastic bit: > The second time was the following Thursday at 8am. We walked straight in with no welcome at all and hardly anything available on the menu. There was confusion from the staff as to whether the items were unavailable or they had just run out. My wife had to return her food as it was cold. You also couldn't go up to the sky bar as it doesn't open until 11am. It was such a let down the second time we visited. > I've left the review with 5 stars as that is how I felt after the first visit. Hopefully the experience a week later was just a one off. Now if that isn't a speedrun of the Tesla experience.

Zorkmid123 2025-08-21 19:53

Yeah but do the food trucks have remote controlled Optimus bots?

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-21 20:03

Not yet but they will be disrupted as well

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 20:15

Based on recent reviews, the bot is gone already. RIP popcorn robot we hardly knew ye, July 2025 - July 2025

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-21 20:15

I could see that, if you're depending on a lot of low quality code that will need to be reworked anyways why not use an AI? As for junior engineers it probably will, I mean stack overflow and virtually any programming adjacent forum usually would have a heavy influx of college kids looking for someone to do their homework for them. Now every writing, coding and research assignment is going to need to be screened heavily for being written by some AI and I'm sure parents are going to be a nightmare about it for school age kids and spouting the same kind of "What did they do wrong? They're just using the tools available to them to complete the assignment!" energy about it. I can only imagine the illiterate and incomprehensible prompts that going to end up appearing in IT department logs 10 years from now.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-21 20:24

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tesla+Diner/@34.0909057,-118.3418573,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sCIABIhDI9BnaUmmr-YDkq8Fg1s-V!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fgeougc-cs%2FAB3l90BPSMXBKAicDuKI3TyUU0NESjyFvylDyqoih3XcLsFKjyvggDqTLo_Rx1znQCmxBLgC_42g1tLH2S4wbfxDAiie3ByAnFV-fe9Ei-4_m2J79nlfLKJAXq39QSqfe31fcWiZggIeDlCOFk4!7i2268!8i4032!4m8!3m7!1s0x80c2bf29156fffff:0x1542bf46f5cb6a0!8m2!3d34.0909057!4d-118.3418573!9m1!1b1!16s%2Fg%2F11xn5c1ghs?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDgxOS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D Some of these recent Tesla Diner reviews are actually good content, would recommend reading. > BEWARE if you care about your health and the quality of food you spend your money on. DO NOT EAT HERE. I WORKED HERE THE FIRST TWO WEEKS. ALL the food on the menu is already pre made in a bag, they just throw all your food In a microwave, all the food items is pre made/pre packaged. The work environment was VERY toxic that I couldn’t even last a month there. VERY OVERPRICED LOW QUALITY FOOD. Just charge your car and walk to the in n out.

wootnootlol 2025-08-21 20:52

Noo waaay!

RagaToc 2025-08-21 21:15

It ran for 2 days I think?

theviolatr 2025-08-21 23:50

Is Elon truly going insane? Non stop for a week now posting Grok Imagine AI slop....today was primarily an underclothed girl who can dance for you if you long press on the image. Ummm yea OK bro. Oh he also said Grok 5 (next release) will achieve AGI....it's coming "soon"

Puzzleheaded_Step671 2025-08-22 00:16

Elon's incel waifu posting on twitter is wild. He needs help.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-22 00:27

The waifu stuff is literally the only thing people use grok for, based on /r/grok. Which makes sense given chief incel of the company that made it.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-22 00:35

Apparently the facility cranes for the Semi factory have arrived on site. So one of the crucial and fundamental parts of a factory...the bridge cranes used to assemble and move manufacturing equipment inside the facility, have arrived in the second half of 2025. That 2017 semi is really shaping up. Just think we might have actual specs just 10 years after its announcement.

failinglikefalling 2025-08-22 01:48

It’s built into the coding tools. If the industry standard includes ai how do you exclude it? We are all prompt engineers now.

failinglikefalling 2025-08-22 01:49

I had a really really bad production “binary bit flip” type issue because someone looked up an excel function and didn’t know to put ,false at the end.

ObservationalHumor 2025-08-22 02:46

I mean that's just not true. There's a ton of IDEs and editors out there for writing all sorts of code besides Visual Studio. Many of them open source. Yeah organizations themselves might be pushing it hard but once they realize they're getting nothing for their money that's going to change too.

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-22 05:53

But wait, I thought they held a delivery event in 2022 and delivered 50,000 of them in 2024.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 07:09

But nobody wants the Semi and there's not enough batteries for them.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 07:15

I really thought I would be into VR but I couldnt be bothered with it after trying it for an hour or two.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 07:16

People unfortunately seem to think others want to hear what a computer 'said' to them. I don't understand why.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 07:18

Free lifetime supercharging doesn't cost Tesla nothing.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 07:19

There is no Tesla Robotaxi service.

StartersOrders 2025-08-22 08:41

Meanwhile Edison are actually building trucks for customers. Slowly, but they’re a tiny company after all. And they also understand what a truck is meant to be and what it’s meant to do. I always enjoy their YouTube videos.

[deleted] 2025-08-22 09:29

[deleted]

Lacrewpandora 2025-08-22 12:47

But it doesn't cost much *now*. Lets say its worth $5k. If I buy a Cybertruck, I essentially loan them the $5k and TSLA pays it back to me over a period of years...with no interest...in the form of free supercharging. And TSLA will probably default, in the form of my getting tired of hanging out at superchargers all the time. This is much cheaper than simply discounting the car $5k to move the metal.

Withnail2019 2025-08-22 12:54

>But it doesn't cost much *now*. Yeah I hadnt thought of it that way, as of the day of the car sale it hasn't cost them anything.

Nick_Gilberts_Bowtie 2025-08-22 16:09

Just saw an article that stated TLSA is up today because "it has a strategy to sell more cybertrucks" HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAH

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-22 16:29

It's over $300 because they have the concept of the possibility of a plan

[deleted] 2025-08-22 16:52

Al Root at Barron's is a Tesla simp.

Digg-Sucks 2025-08-22 18:24

>"I think my brother deserves to be paid," Kimbal Musk said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. "He has zero pay for the past six to eight years. I don't think that's right. I'll let Tesla shareholders make that decision, but I believe that it does need to be. He needs to be paid." Richest man in the world need more rich

ryan_dfs 2025-08-22 19:41

Valued at 3x the entire ride sharing market before having a viable product

BuckChintheRealtor 2025-08-22 20:10

Click on [this link ](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2) if you want a good laugh

theviolatr 2025-08-22 21:06

yea i notice on X the narrative went from "robotaxi for millions at a click of a button" to "have to be cautious on rollout and regulatory holding things back". Also just wait for FSDv14!!! Wait if self driving is solved why is v14 even needed???? I'm so confused.

theviolatr 2025-08-22 21:08

Volvo, Scania, Daimler, etc all sell electric variants and some of those testing self driving already. Even the most insane bulls don't mention semi anymore. That factory will be a stranded asset

Monk315 2025-08-23 00:49

As absurd as the targets are, remember there was a 3 for 1 stock split in 2022 after that article was written, so all of those targets should be divided by 3.

[deleted] 2025-08-23 01:18

Their 'Bear Case' is $1.5T market cap, Tesla is $1.1T today. But if you look at what makes up that case, they're so far off it's not even close. In other words, the valuation of Tesla today is more wacky than even ARK could predict. Cars Sold (millions): 5 \[Actual: \~1.5\] Electric Vehicle Revenue (billions): $234 \[Actual: \~$80-90\] Human-Driven Ride-Hail Revenue (net, billions): $42 \[Actual: <$0.001\] Electric Vehicle Gross Margin (ex-credits): 40% \[Actual: <15%\] Market Cap (billions): $1,500

mrbuttsavage 2025-08-23 04:36

>Since our last forecast, neural networks have solved many complex problems previously considered unsolvable, increasing the probability that robotaxis are viable. I think this nugget alone is indicative of the kind of "analysis" they do.

BuckChintheRealtor 2025-08-23 07:14

Correct. Either way, there's still loads of work to be done to make ARK Invests [2022 expected values for 2026 ](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-model) happen. Bullcase $ 1933 (after adjustment for stock split and bear case $ 967. This is their [latest report (from August 19) ](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-launched-its-robotaxi-now-what) btw.

noobgiraffe 2025-08-23 09:41

I actually agree with him. What I disagree with is that he deserved to be payed 10x more than any other CEO in the history of the world. Expecially since the company is not growing but shrinking.

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-08-23 13:24

Idiot on Cybertruck Owners Club tells everyone that to get the IRS tax credit, you need to put down a deposit by "September 31". Good luck with that, since "September 31" is also known as October 1.  https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/irs-update-you-only-need-to-put-a-down-payment-by-sept-31-to-claim-the-tax-credit.47123/#post-30648602

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-08-23 15:38

It's depressing that anyone takes these dingleberries seriously.

Digg-Sucks 2025-08-23 16:16

Great - pay him what he's worth, minimum wage ought to cover that. He arranged this insane pay scheme instead of just taking a normal CEO pay package worth millions per year. I couldn't give less fucks about whether any billionaire getting paid.

MarchMurky8649 2025-08-23 16:32

Do we know if, other than the 31/30 screw-up, this is true? Might Tesla actually make a profit in Q4 after all as a result?

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-23 17:08

Honestly your quote alone was all it took for me to guess - Ark ~~Invest~~ Cashburn

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-23 17:10

If enough people pump and believe that's all it takes. Fabricate your own reality and encourage others to believe

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-08-23 18:10

Fancy graphs and faux intellectual language.....it's just infuriating, really.

FrogmanKouki 2025-08-23 18:18

It's especially frustrating for those of us that fell for the meritorious myth..

WitnessExpress7014 2025-08-23 20:32

idk what you are talking about. I only see September 30 and the IRS maintains guilty until proven innocent so good luck arguing that with them unless they wrote September 31st for guidance.

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-08-23 21:53

The idiot who posted on the site titled the post with September 31st. It's even in the html link text.

AndSoISaysToTheGuy 2025-08-23 21:54

I dunno. Just glad it will all be over with on September 32nd at the latest.

[deleted] 2025-08-24 01:37

One of those cult 'analysts' (some dude that knows how to make a spreadsheet) on YouTube has a Tesla Semi bull case of $75T market cap, or $24,000/share. That's just for the 'robo-semis'. That's bigger than the total market cap of all publicly listed companies in the U.S.

My_reddit_throwawy 2025-08-24 14:30

That’s Cern Basher with years of analytical experience. The value of his analysis is that it is the first public analysis that shows that Tesla robosemis could become as valuable as robotaxis. I saw his whole presentation and never saw $75T (maybe it’s there in an extremely positive best case).

My_reddit_throwawy 2025-08-24 14:31

Is this whole sub about bashing Tesla? The fear is palpable.

My_reddit_throwawy 2025-08-24 14:33

Yes, the rules have been changed. According to new news If you have a signed sales contract and a down payment by September 30th then you are eligible for the tax credit.

My_reddit_throwawy 2025-08-24 14:35

Ah, this whole sub is dedicated to fear, uncertainty and doubt about Tesla.

Withnail2019 2025-08-24 15:26

It doesn't need any bashing mate. It's already fucked.

Withnail2019 2025-08-24 15:27

There are no robosemis and you wouldn't use semi trucks as taxis, would you.

Withnail2019 2025-08-24 15:28

it's dedicated to facts about Tesla.

[deleted] 2025-08-25 00:37

Parroting cult terminology (FUD) is kind of a dead giveaway you're in the cult.

[deleted] 2025-08-25 00:39

Free Robotaxi rides in Las Vegas!! [https://xcancel.com/JonBryant421/status/1959607725555663333#m](https://xcancel.com/JonBryant421/status/1959607725555663333#m) No, of course it's not Tesla. 🤡🤡🤡

henrik_se 2025-08-25 05:51

> > I've left the review with 5 stars They can't fucking help themselves, can they? Love the diner, but.....

Hozntl 2025-08-25 10:28

Fear of what?

MarchMurky8649 2025-08-25 18:28

That is, genuinely, a most amusing comment. For some reason this topic popped into my mind again just now. I was thinking that the aide-mémoire, i.e. the poem starting "thirty days hath September", is so ancient it has 'hath' in it.

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