Tesla sales predictions for the next 12 months.

To expand on that 60k in Europe 400k in China 300k in the US 100k the RoW

Sales may be ok for them, but doesn’t tell the true story. They can be selling more, but at deep discounts, they’re probably losing money on every sale.

Sales have fallen over 60% in Europe so far this year, sales are definitely not ok for them. They look to set to lose half their revenue.

Is there a site tracking the US sales? A bit like what eu-evs.com is doing for EU

Where are you getting these numbers? That would be a massive reduction in China. They've already sold over 200k of the model Y in China by end of July and about 100k Model 3. So they're already at 300k+ with 5 months of sales left to go. I think you're being pretty bearish on sales. I don't think they'll hit their 1.8M target but I also don't think it'll less than half of that, which is what you're predicting. They've delivered over 720k vehicles globally in the first two quarters. First quarter is often slow so I would say they come in at least at 1.5M but likely somewhere between 1.7-1.8M

Not that I can find, China is between 6-11k a week, and the Euro sales registrations are published monthly, so they are pretty accurate, its just the US where sales numbers are obscure.

The European numbers are correct, that accounts for a drop of 200k in sales, China EV registrations are published weekly, and the last 2 months have been aound 8000 cars a week. The US is also down. Europe is hitting Tesla hard, selling less than 5000 cars in a very prosperous continent is not good. This is a predictions thread for the next 12 months, predict away.

They're on for 1.4m to 1.5m cars this year (approx 15% decline from last year), which in the scheme of things, is not too bad. Market share may continue to decline next year, but in all honesty, sales volumes are likely to pick up. The lower cost Model Y will come into market probably early to mid next year, and will find a target market in China, which is where they need it to maintain production volume targets. It'll also compete at a lower price point in EUR, which is one of the blockers they have here - the cars are too expensive. Regardless of what the population thinks of Musk in EUR, there are still plenty of car buyers who either don't know or don't care about him. That leaves North America, where he appears to be going through a level of image rehabilitation. Keep in mind, that when it comes to big ticket purchases or commitments, people can have short memories of the person, instead looking at the product and its risks. From that point of view, Tesla are no better or worse than they were a year ago.

Tesla are finished in Europe, they were the 25th best selling car in Europe last month, about 40 000 cars behind the top spot. EV competition is everywhere and Europeans will buy a Mercedes or BMW or even a BYD EV over Tesla.

Model a big decline in China after July. Some great alternatives hit the market then.

Doesn’t Tesla only report cars built, not actual sales?

A lot of people seem in total denial about the permanent damage Elon has done to the brand. I do not think Tesla survives long term.

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That's why you're coming up with low numbers.....they are far from finished in Europe. In the first half of the year, they had by far the best selling BEV product range (M3 and MY), occupying two of the top 3 positions (Model Y = 68.8k, ID4 = 40.3k and M3 = 39.8k). Yes, those volumes are down from last year, as is their market share, but the volumes aren't the apocalyptic numbers that people keep commenting about. Looking at June this year, the Model Y saw ***no decrease*** in sales from June last year. That is to say, it is likely that the worst of the volume decreases have already happened. Sales have bottomed out. As for their sales against the full pass car market, yes, they may well have been iun 25th place....but from memory, they were only in 18th place last year. Again, it's not an apocalyptic drop.

@TroyTeslike on Twitter tracks US sales through registration numbers. He will usually post estimates near the end of the month and then revise them towards the end of the quarter. He’s generally closer than “analyst consensus”.

You keep citing the decline in sales, thinking they will somehow bounce back. They wont, Elmo is hated in Europe generally, and there are so many EVs out there to choose from there is no need to buy a Tesla. they sold less than 2000 cars in the UK, France and Germany last month, that's three of the richest countries in the world. Nobody is sitting waiting for the latest Tesla Update, when you can go and get a better Chinese EV for half the money. Tesla are over in Europe. Elmo and his Elmobiles are over.

I could see them having flat sales for the next few years in US and China. It's not like their market share is that big to begin with. Though if they are flat, then eventually the stock will fall and that may start of spiral where it's difficult for them to attract good engineers.

I think 1.5M is going to be pretty close, but I don’t see how that’s “not too bad”. A 15% decline in a market that’s increasing by 25% is objectively terrible. And the headwinds aren’t going away. Tesla and Elon are among the most hated brands, at least in the US, and the competition getting bigger, better, and cheaper. Q3 should provide a little bounce from buyers who want to beat the tax credit expiration, but their car business will be lucky to be profitable in 2025, and almost certainly won’t be next year.

But you’re talking about two different things. On one hand you’re saying next 12 months but you reference their 1.8M unit guidance for fiscal year 2025, which is halfway done and they’re already at 720k cars sold. Are you saying by end of July 2026 they will have sold 850k cars?

Your numbers are way off, forecast by reputable independent sources are 1,6 million and 440k for Q3. Look up Troy Teslike or other independent tesla analysts. Tesla’s sales are declining but not as fast as your “research” suggests.

I do agree that Sales will be even worse in 2026 with US 7500 tax incentive removed and in China increased competition and in EU brand destruction and competition. So for 2026 I can see 1,3-1,5 Million sales as further sales decline but 850k is way too pessimistic.

Yes 850k in the next 12 months. 720k only works at 1.44 for the year and they wont sell another 720k in the next 4 months. sales will be 1.2m optimistically this year, so 30% down on the 1.8m guidance, or about $30bn in revenue.

850k for the next 12 months is optimistic.

Are all of you taking into account that the federal tax credit of $7500 in the United States is going to be ended on September 30? I would assume that would have downward pressure on all EV sales, including Tesla.

after this quarter, expect sales to crater in the US with the EV tax incentives going away, Elon continues to damage the global brand with a continuing decline in sales. Teslaq by Q3 next year

Can you point to any examples of Elmo‘s image rehabilitation? I feel like I follow this stuff pretty closely and I haven’t seen anything from him, that would indicate he’s actively working on fixing his image or reputation. Sure, he’s been quieter lately, but I don’t know if that’s gonna do it.

Other manufacturers are not one trick ponys and have lots of other offerings besides EVs. This is not at all good for any EV only manufacturers

I'm not sure what you're getting at now. You asked for other people's analysis then you're arguing that it can't be right. It just makes me wonder what your motivations are for asking the question in the first place. >thinking they will somehow bounce back At no point have I stated that. Sales having bottomed out could mean either stabilising or increasing in the future. >when you can go and get a better Chinese EV for half the money Hence my comment that the low cost MY will find a place in the market.

You will see a lot of sales that would’ve been in Q4 pull ahead to Q3 to get the EV tax credit. However that is going to make Q4 especially dogshit as far as earnings because not only will sales be down, but now they can’t get those sweet ZEV credits in the US (and ZEV credits are what are making them profitable in the first place). 2026 is the year that will really tell us how bad Tesla is going to perform and I think you’ll see them losing money significantly instead of turning a profit. All the levers have been pulled, there’s no tricks they can use like Bitcoin gains to shore up the balance sheet.

Whatever happens, they'll blame the lack of sales due to the supposed launch of the LWB MY in North America. Retooling and such. That worked out so well for them with the MY Juniper launch earlier this year /s

Will FSD 14 boost sales?

The numbers are published weekly and monthly, anybody with a calculator can add them up.

Purely anecdotally..... Most of his Comms over the last month or so have been focused on his business interests and their plans, rather than politics - it's going back to where he was a year ago. Again, he's talking more about Tesla's self driving plans, even if it's all BS. It looks like he's re-engaging with his core following. Like I said, that's the appearance to me. Maybe reality is different.

I predict Tesla will open one more diner in the next year. Or close the existing one.

I don’t think sales will fall that dramatically, although the loss of the EV credit in the USA will definitely impact sales but probably drive them up for the quarter. I would say 800k for Q3+Q4, maybe 450k and 350 as people rush to buy before credits expire. That would put them at 1.5M for the fiscal year. I think they’ll do ~300k for the following two quarters to end up at 1.4M but maybe less. But as competition heats up abroad and Rivian releasing the R2, which will cut into Model Y sales, I could see the sales declining further.

Nope. They report both production and deliveries. A sale doesn’t count until a customer has received their car.

I’m curious to see how they maintain the stock price as their P/E ratio ratchets up as their earnings go down. It’s a big house of cards right now.

Aren’t pollution credits buying/selling also going away? Forget what it’s called, not referring to customers tax credit break

P/E: #DIV/0!

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Your not citing any sources, I can show you the published sales reporting figures from most of the world, you are just using conjecture.

Yep, those pollution credits are the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits :) Automakers who can’t sell cars that meet the emissions standards could buy credits from automakers like Tesla so they wouldn’t get fined. The fines are no longer being enforced so the ZEV credits are worthless now.

They are reselling them to dealerships though.

I'll drop you a DM - no aggravation from my side. I'm very happy to continue to discuss. I talk about this stuff a lot. All day, every day, in fact. And that's the case because it's part of my job ;)

Europe and China publish the auto industry sales numbers weekly and monthly, so you can see how many cars Tesla has sold real time.

Actual sales or delivery numbers?

🤣

The rough math that I did on the model y had the profit on it around 7500.  If they lower the price they start breaking even or losing money real quick.

In the US

Germany is at 20 Teslas a day, between 30 showrooms.

Ok.

Tesla will survive but only if they jettison Elon. I don’t see how these numbers can go on and him not being removed at some point. They do make great cars. But Elon made himself such the figurehead of the company that his newfound toxicity is destroying the brand reputation.

The next CEO could be a lesbian Quaker who dedicated her life to ending world hunger and child abuse and I still wouldn't buy a car from them at half price. Even if he sold all his shares, his cronies that empowered him would still reap the benefits. Let the company burn! Which frankly shouldn't take very long given the flammibility of their batteries....

Where does Tesla sell cars to dealerships? They own and operate the majority of not all of their retail operations as I understand it. They don't get to say a car is sold because it's at a retail operation they own.

850k?

The more I see about China’s EV’s, I feel like Elon is a failure for not coming out with new models like a true 7 seater or futuristic truck but not ridiculously truck catered to so few, no matter the price.

This is Elmo we are talking about.

I am all for shitbagging Tesla and Elon, but I only want to for things that are real. Tesla doesn't have the sales structure to play hide the inventory with independent dealerships because Tesla owns their retail stores.  Have you got any proof of your claim? I would love it to be right but I don't suffer the bullshit of fools.

They have a massively increased showroom inventory, and will be shipping cars from one plant to another to double count production. Elmo will use every trick in the book to hide the real situation. Why couldn't the company offer guidance on their sales in the latest earnings? They know they are tanking.

Yeah but that's not answering the question. Is this conjecture or do you have some article or proof that this is happening?

Your prediction seems very off though. 15-20% less than last year is more likely, i.e. around 1.5 million.

Q3'25 might be the last strong quarter for them short term. W/o tax credit, brand damage, weak portfolio of cars, and tariffs impact, the land scape for Tesla will be super challenging. I have no doubt, the company will survive, but it will take significant effort to turn things around. If sentiment around Elon doesn't change, Tesla will have limited attractive in most of the markets it is sold. However, if they solve Robotaxi autonomous navigation, we might see production increase for Robotaxi purposes, but this is far from certain. And realistically, the impact will be in 2027 because they need to go through lengthy procedures to prove it is safe (currently not) city after city.

so just to be clear, are you referring to regulatory credit that I see on Tesla's P&L or is it smth that car buyer receive when they purchase Tesla car? If former, regulatory credits were \~1/3 of Tesla's net profit for the last quarter. if latter, than it will not only hurt the bottom line but also the top line.

Sales are down over 60% in Europe and 90% in Canada, they are declining by 15% alone in China. Sales are at least 30% down. I have been looking at the published industry sales figures from all over the world. Tesla are already down 30%

If you want someone to discredit everything you have said, lying about something that can be disproven with a Google search is absolutely the way to do it. We can do better than this, you can do better than this.

Their have been reports of dealers parking Teslas in the streets, why would they do that? All his numbers are a charade, he is the modern day Robert Maxwell.

> only want to for things that are real And there's a ton of those.

Yes, absolutely. Let's stick to the realities of how stupid musk and Tesla is rather than conjecture.

Because they have more inventory than parking spots? If you can prove they are falsifying their sales numbers, hot damn we got a stew going. Otherwise you are being a dipshit lying about this.

This article is from March and things have only got worse. [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-sales-have-significantly-underperformed-in-all-key-regions-analyst-says-41d8e507](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-sales-have-significantly-underperformed-in-all-key-regions-analyst-says-41d8e507)

Didn’t he say he was going to start a whole third political party in the USA?🇺🇸

Where did you get the numbers for US sales from?

Most hated brands in the US has got to be regional cause I’m not seeing that in SoCal.

They have sold about 720k vehicles in Q1 and Q2 together. Same volumes in Q3 and Q4 means 1.44 million vehicles. Sure it might be even lower (I hope so), but below 1.2 million sounds very unrealistic.

They are not selling any where like Q1 and Q2, they are about 30-62% down when last months sales numbers were published.

For example China in july was down 15% vs july last year. I'd love Tesla to decline more, but 850k is very far off IMO.

Yeah, a few weeks ago. He seems to have calmed down since then (other than a vaguely business related spat with Sam Altman and Apple)..

They’ve had the luxury of being ahead so they really didn’t have to take away from profit by doing that. Also, they scaled out at an incredible rate which would be harder to do with an increased lineup.

Shipped to retail location doesn’t count as delivered tho’. Tesla do not currently have a legal entity in the US to hide inventory behind. The legacy auto “trick” of dump selling inventory to authorised dealers then providing inventory finance on the back end via a in house bank isn’t open to Tesla due to their direct sales model. Remember Tesla doesn’t have dealers and all physical outlets are Tesla owned and operated “stores”.

Under 500,00 in 2026. Any numbers reported by Tesla will be hog piss.

If you watch what Elon is doing, he doesn't care. He will still be a billionaire. But he will just strip Tesla for parts as the ship sinks. He will get a huge pay package, his board will sell, and they will financially ruin retail traders as they move on to SpaceX, xAI and other private companies that are worth whatever made up number.

Maybe not yet. But after all the subsidies and such are gone, they absolutely will. There's no option to raise prices as sales will tank.

It’s the former. In q1, ev credits removed, net loss -$200m.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Tesla will be fine. Just look at Mercedes Benz and it's history.

Wait, I thought I just saw Ryan Shaw say that Cyber truck orders are up and people have to wait for them.

Will he eventually set things up to sell the FSD tech to another group who fixes it with radar and lidar?

Not likely worth it if it sucks as I expect it to once drivers are removed. There's better tech out there. But the greater fool theory may prove true.

More than half. Remember the triple whammy of carbon tax credits. 1) lower sales means less credits, 2) other auto makes have their own evs sales climbing so need less/no credits 3) the orange turd cancelled all us credits at the end of the year.

I don’t even believe their reported sales numbers. Didn’t fElon fire the CRO and put himself in charge of reporting sales figures to finance? It’s fraud all the way down.

But selling less vehicles also means less carbon credits they can sell no? So selling less cars will lead to a snowball effect of more financial issues. There solvability in some European countries is dwindling. Delaying invoices for installations many months after due date. Next will be the inability to pay staff if you can only sell 15% of the amount you used to do in some countries like in Sweden.

Nobody believes it was a Roman salute. He's cooked.

Yeah it'll be more like 1.4

Why bother? Waymo at least is already ahead of them in that department. Tesla gave up on the dojo now too and probably gave the hardware directly to xAI.

100% of their profit this last quarter at least was only from federal credits. They’re already fked.

thats not how 10Qs work you cant just report any number you want. PCAOB is all over tesla already as well as it being top priority client for PWC.

reddit people do not represent the rest of USA. if you talk to real life people in the world no one cares that much about what the CEO says when buying a car.

I will gleefully watch Tesla fail miserably and eventually / maybe get taken over by GM. 😂

Lower than today

Tesla is doing great. They are not car company anymore

I'd estimate the previous quarter x 4 x 1.15 (15% uplift). That's 1.55m units.

I predict they will do both.

When can I buy a Waymo?

Lets say sales start declining in the next few years, how does that impact current owners? Does loss in revenue mean super chargers are no longer maintained? Servce centers start closing down?

Whomever can make it first will license it out for billions a year to manufacturers who will put it in their cars.

1.5 more likely. Obviously, that is still bad.

Check out Magna, who is Waymos retrofit partner. They are scaling massively so they can more efficiently up fit cars for the Waymo fleet. The Waymo "Lidar, Radar, Camera upfit kit" is estimated at $12,500 right now. But it has yet to be offered. This cost estimate is for a non-commercial kit suitable for private passenger cars. It does not include the computer or software. Toyota and Hyundai are both partnered with Waymo, so we will wait and see if a Level 4 retrofit kit materializes anytime soon. Jaquar I-Pace and Zeekar RT are already Waymos chosen platforms for retrofit in their commercial L4 fleet.

First half of the year they've already sold 700k cars. 850 at year end is unlikely. Maybe 1.4 million? There are some shady things they can try to do to pump the official numbers. Last quarter they had odd lots sold in other countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc

Teslas are still selling in decent numbers. I helped my friend go through his Cybertruck on delivery day and that Florida location had 20 other vehicle deliveries… which used to be 30 per day at the old location that’s now only a service center. I drove to my local Ford dealer a few miles away to test drive a Ranger Raptor and it was a ghost town. Maybe that Ford dealer sold a few vehicles all day if that. I don’t care for Lord Elon, FSD, and poor Tesla QC but the vehicles are still shifting off lots.

The levers have been at full tilt for a while. They are throwing money out the door on financing to get the cars moving and it's still not working. They're currently offering 0% financing for 60mo on the brand new model Y. That's end of life cycle, clear out inventory level incentives on a car that just launched. We've only started seeing the proper sales slump begin.

At this point it’s all priced in. The minute you see sales numbers doing slightly better than the abysmal rates they are - eg big boost before ev tax credits expire, stock price will pop on that news. It only goes up.

You're likely simply drumming up the old Tesla fan hit list, but if it was a genuine question, then they did announce a partnership with Toyota -back in April. To integrate the tech in production cars. It could be available to private buyers before FSD (non-supervised) is available. tbd

I was actually citing the brand surveys that have shown Tesla and Elon’s reputations are both in the toilet. And it’s not Reddit that’s causing the double digit % drop in virtually every country. I suppose you’ll always have Norway.

I just purchased an EV after wanting one for years, the closest I got to looking at a Tesla was comparing the price I was getting on my Mach-E to the Model 3 and Y so see if I was getting a good deal. Other than that I didn’t even consider a Tesla or step foot into one of their showrooms. Elon killed the brand when he did his hard right, especially when added to the poor quality of Tesla’s for their price point, the clusterfuck that’s “full self driving” and the over promise / under (or never) deliver that Tesla has become known for.

Ford’s Blue Cruise, GM’s Super Cruise and what’s coming out of China is already on par and in some ways surprising Tesla’s Full Self Driving.

But have you thought outside the box of Tesla being a car company? Sure, none of their other ideas are going to make money. Sure, the power thing is just rebranding Chinese batteries. But what if a man with a combination of brains and ketamine leaking out of his ears invents the next big thing?

Hard to say if their IP would be worth it. I imagine starting from scratch now would be easier than trying to do that 10 years ago. Telsa isn’t cutting edge anymore either. Dollar for dollar, you might end up with a better product by trying to reverse engineer newer Chinese EVs.

From ahead to what now feels decades behind from what China is doing

Agreed. Tesla is selling nearly 350 k vehicles each quarter, so I believe it will be around 1.4 million.

Ya, I don’t think people fully understand the momentum. Once you become “the EV” in a market, it drives sales. Elon has left a vacuum in so much of the market and others are stepping in. They will dominate sales. Tesla is about to get destroyed like blackberry.

It is a very similar scenario to blackberry, they tried everything to relaunch, and it was all too late, the competition had gone well past them.

I was kinda thinking he would get tsla to buy spacex and xai, giving himself another massive pile of shareholder money, and then pretend it isn't actually a car company but an ai company and that would keep the horde of there's-going-to-be-a-greater-fool investors going for another few years.

True!

Wow! Some real hatred here!😮

New article out XAI is hurting people in Tennessee And doing it without permits G where am I heard that before I think he might be the antichrist

I do think Tesla will survive, but as a badge after it is bailed out and sold.

The brand will be retired. They’ll just buy the tech and patents etc.

Don't know the current situation, but in the past they were caught showing wrong figures by *accident*. https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-australia-admits-it-sales-figures-were-wrong/

FSD will always be vaporware even if they make it “better”

Superchargers are worth money if (big if) EVs keep selling well enough. But even the real estate isn’t worth more than the land due to the dedicated facilities

In the Bay Area you see only a few of the new model 3's driving around...they are always by immigrants..no locals buy these shit cars anymore

What is vaporware i am not familiar with this word

Yep. I’d argue that Tesla is in a worse position due to the toxicity of the brand now. Only thing they have going for them is a car is not quite as disposable as a phone that people used to change/upgrade every year. So it will take some time, but I won’t be shocked if the EV business is toast. Maybe they can pivot, but brand is still toxic. Half the country ain’t going to take their shitty cab service and even if they did, that’s a much less profitable business than selling millions $60k cars.l and sucking up billions in gov subsidies.

Software endlessly promised that never gets delivered.

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