Tesla Just Went From A Risky Investment To A Reckless One

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This is something that rarely anyone talks about: "To add another layer of complexity to this whole situation, we know that Musk has deposited nearly 236 million Tesla shares for his personal loans. Even though Tesla has capped borrowing at 25% of pledged share value, it still represents massive personal leverage. Moreover, I am less concerned about the size of the loan itself and more about the fragility this brings to Tesla's stock. If the share price were to plunge (which I see as highly likely, as TSLA is clearly a bubble at this point), Musk could end up facing a margin call, which could force him to sell a significant portion of his shares, triggering a wider selloff. This links Tesla directly to Musk's financial stability, which isn't a good position for the rest of the company's shareholders to be in." It's a house of cards.

The problem is the people that gave him all those loans are highly invested in keeping the stock price High so he doesn't default.

But hasn’t this been true for like…half a decade now? Musk uses Tesla as his personal bank account. Everything he has done, is on the backs of Tesla shareholders which have paid him. Why are people just now saying it’s reckless?

Not to be confused with wreckless which it very much is not.

What is the definition of “wreckless” just curious

Not having wrecks. It's not a real word.

Because they've had enough? Lol

Because he's kept borrowing more as the stock went up so also the stock price that triggers a margin call is also higher. In other words the stock doesn't need to drop to as much to force him to sell now. Much more risky than it was previously.

Yeah? When does that start?

You’re kidding right? He’s FINALLY come thru on his promise of self driving cars. His taxi is working and empirically has been expanding its coverage exponentially since launching (ten years late). In a couple years Tesla will be the only taxi company running WORLDWIDE because its capital costs are so much lower every other taxi company on the planet and hugely lower than other autonomous taxi companies like Waymo (who actually are still making a loss). Tesla makes its own taxis. He doesn’t care if nobody buys his cars. This is why he’s not making new models. In a few years no one’s gonna need their own car. He only cares if people ride in his FSD cars. And people are already. And paying to do so.

I see what you did there.

Yeah that’s why I asked

Someone's been in Elmo's Ketamine stash...

Put this in your crack pipe, from GPT 5: [https://chatgpt.com/s/t\_6894fff52f50819195da9a0884b111e8](https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6894fff52f50819195da9a0884b111e8)

roof stocking caption smell towering marry run fear point fearless *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

Humor?

>He’s FINALLY come thru on his promise of self driving cars Tell that to the people they make ride in the car for all the well documented screw ups. Huh that two seat cyber cab feels even more impractical when one of the seats is full of a safety driver

It’s running FSD taxis in Dubai and Austin right now and has doubled its coverage there twice, is about to launch in San Fran Bay Area.

Ball roll, heavy ball roll slow!

I was waiting for the /s at the end 😅

Keep in mind people are not buying TSLA so they can secure a long term investment in a company that will succeed financially. They are buying a meme stock with the goal of selling high before it drops. Every legitimate advisor out there will tell you it’s a volatile stock and not an investment.

Chat GPT is obviously wrong here  .. because it claims hw4 has radar.

So 20ish in Austin. And san fran has people in the driver seat. So much winning!

lol. Let me know when any of them are **full self** driving.

“Full Self Driving” but with drivers.

Be advised: [https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-hardware-4-hd-radar-first-look-photos/](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-hardware-4-hd-radar-first-look-photos/)

But it's not actually in the production cars there is a passenger facing radar for the airbag deployment though.

1 to 2 is “doubling”

Is that a problem though? If they choose to support the house of cards, it is still their choice. Like the banks that kept loaning money to Trump.

So ur telling me anyone holding Tesla stock is fucked? Welp

>This links Tesla directly to Musk's ~~financial~~ mental, emotional and political stability

it has taxis. OMG yay. they aren't autonomous. what is FSD? is it autonomous?

i will add this info to my crackpipe

I don't know if you are a bot, a paid shill or disconnected from reality. Interesting talking about "him" as if "he" is Tesla?

Launching the service doesn't mean it is successful. Youtuber and Tesla fan, Ellie in Space, took her first robotaxi ride in Austin. That vehicle randomly drove through a parking lot and the trip was cancelled midway when Tesla customer support informed her the vehicle could not continue in rain. She was instructed to get out on the side of the road. Had to call another robotaxi to take her back to her original departure point and never reached her destination. Objectively, the robotaxi service failed. [Tesla first ride in Austin.](https://youtu.be/edEpCjk6Skw?si=nAonxdzDADKdM1tm)

Others would call this a regular taxi…

I am with you and everyone else on this sub, but I distinctly recall having read in the past week or so that he denies still having loans against his shares. Could he be lying or I must have misread/bad memory? Not to mention every single shill on youtube says there is no dilution happening since the shares he was awarded are shares that were part of the original 2018 package. I am just trying to wrap my head around these 2 seemingly conflicting points.

OMFG. You actually believe yourself. You might want to look into the revenue and profitability opportunity of the one worldwide taxi service you're hyping. It's worth two parts of fuck all compared to the current market cap.

Didn't Musk just double down on Tesla for another $30 Billion? I hope he loses every fucking thing.

And the stock goes to all time highs.

profit has been going down last 3 or 4 quarters, i dont have the numbers at hand but I think it looked like if it was following last 3 quarters it would be in the minus next quarter report.

Stop, I can only get so erect. Losing everything is the only satisfying outcome i have for Musk.

Enron was until it wasn't too, remember.

Has anyone calculated how much of a share price fall would trigger a margin call?

Two words for you: Lehman Brothers. Musk can eat shit. Everyone who supports him can share his fate.

No. It isn't. Nothing about anything Tesla is "running" is FSD.

Most likely since carbon bucks are/were carrying tesla earnings.

No no, YOU are kidding right? right? RIGHT? (OMG, I don't think you are kidding. Bless your heart.)

Waaah waaah waaaah ! You missed ur chance! Do your best to run it down guys but I’m sitting on 10x return on Tesla and have already sold out my original investment and am happily eating cream. I’m expecting another 5x return. But it’s not too late guys. Don’t miss out your bitterness can only grow with increasing lost opportunity. Don’t grow old and sad. 😔

yup and they are gone now, and sales in europe around -40% to -50% so numbers gonna be red soon. Question is lf americans gonna cash out and save their pensions or if they will still believe that ai and robots and whatevs gonna make tsla go to the moon

Note he says he doesn't have 'personal loans' very specifically. He has loans. It's just that he pledged His shares for loans To SpaceX and others of his companies. They pay the interest so it's all semantics. Why would anyone believe anything that comes out of his mouth?

it absolutely is in production cars. not ALL of them, only S and X, but still.

Depends where you bought. Tesla made millionaires, it can taketh away

There's really no way to tell. Being genX, I've been through something like four "once in a lifetime" financial crises and I know for a fact that the market can stay irrational longer than short sellers can stay solvent". I've also learned that once the house of card topples, everyone claims they knew it was going to happen because the signs were all there (and they always are). But on a long enough timeline, TSLA is probably going to drop 80 to 100%.

Not being used by FSD.  Not sure the point.

Idk i bought it 10 years ago and it's done well as what id regard a long term investment, just a very stressful investment if you're watching it too closely

Relax. Elon soon to announce Tesla to be the first quadrillion dollar company, so recklessness averted.

Sure the classic owe a hundred thousand and the bank owns you, owe 100 billion and you own the bank case. But denial and desperation isn't really a solution. If there's a market downturn some of these house of cards are gonna fall hard and fast.

I’ve seen it in other subs and comments people estimate $150 a share and he’s margin called. Not sure how accurate that is.

Very wise.

Bail while you still can

Do you have the same conviction today that you had last year?. I think this quarter will be fine as people will rush to buy before tax incentives expire. However q4 and next year will be rough

Ur prolly right haha You know once upon a time tesla was associated with climate change initiatives...they were simpler times

I believe it is a major factor. Do you DD: compare banks that work with Elon on his project earning fees with ratings and price targets by their analysts. You'll be astonished to see that those how work for Elon give him better recommendations. Now, they clearly don't want to loose the client. To save him, they might help with the stock price "a bit". They helped him with several years ago with Twitter, why not repeat the same dirty trick now? And if successful, they continue earning multimillion fees, if not it is all Elon.

>Is that a problem though? There's a lot of weakness there.

They just disbanded the Dojo team. What a waste of R&D. Is XAi going to do the neural network training now?

Its ENRON BABY!

Who is it a problem for?

anyone who owns SPY.

Remember you only make money on a stock if you sell it. If you got it 10 years ago make sure you get out with a great profit. I was a bit of a Tesla fan back in the day before Elon started talking a lot and adopted his over promise and under deliver strategy.

And that is why I sold late last year. Buy low, sell high. Yeah, I could have made more waiting a little longer. And I could have lost it all. Happy to say I got out.

As long as the millionaires realized their gains they’re ok.

Changed mind. *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

Did you use LiDAR?

Changed mind. *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

This is why I got out of SPY they're to heavily interested in TSLA

Yes, he is a very savvy and successful billionaire

Changed mind. *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

They won’t have a choice when the time comes.

This is the correct answer. And when that margin call comes, the price will absolutely plummet to the floor as a flood of musk stock goes out for sale, meaning he will need to sell EVEN MORE shares. That’s how the world’s richest man becomes, well, not. Sadly he will never be poor.

If anyone knew for sure, they would be instantly and insanely wealthy. It WILL come down. The fundamentals don’t support the stock price, not even close. Could be next week could be next decade. Too much dumb money out there. See crypto for an example.

If you direct-index, you can hold SPY minus TSLA. It's spiffy.

Another stable genius

You owe a bank $1M and it's your problem. You owe a bank $1B and it's their problem

_Just_?? No. It’s always been risky af

And Musk will claim he still believes in Tesla but the banks are forcing him to sell. Much the same reason he used to unload a load of shares when he bought Twitter.

BMW & Mercedes are $60B market caps, 1/16th TSLA's. TSLA @ $1T of course is pricing in supplanting Uber, 2X on the TAM and 2X on the net margin

That never stops being funny.

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If you didn’t take gains when it went up like 1000% you don’t really need the money, do you? lol

> The problem is the people that gave him all those loans are highly invested in keeping the stock price High so he doesn't default. When you own the bank 10m it's your problem, when you own the bank 100+m~1+bn it's the bank's problem...

It's gambling at this point, the problem is that when it collapsed it's so big it will have a massive impact.

Changed mind. *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

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Watch Tesla plummet and the billionaires get a big tax payer bailout. This story practically writes itself!

TSLA is less than 2% of the ETF.

Depends on the nature of the stock plunge. TSLA plunges 25% or more, they are not going to hold on to his shares and take weeks to work out a way to restructure an agreement. Because if a plunge of the kind necessary to make this hypothetical happen occurs, then you best believe all the other market makers are heading for the exits too. It will be one of the largest drops in market capitalization in history in terms of amount and timeframe.

Lehman Brothers doesn't have production facilities, stock, patents etc. Just like Apple, there is a well constructed ecosystem and a bunch of employees trained in its operation. It is more than possible to have this sold as a going concern. Lehman was just a rolling pile of debt. You'll know when the shitshow is over - you will see Vanguard and Blackrock start to divest - or they will hang in to pick over the corpse, or capitalise on the downfall to rebuild the company and on-sell it.

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In Sweden it was -85% last month.

Does it bother you that everything Elon has said or prognosticated on has turned out to be bullshit? AI Day, Battery Day, the 2023 Shareholder event . . . all his promises have wafted away. The core of the company now is the Model 3 & Y. A good business, but not a $1T business, more like $50B, assuming Tesla's business model actually holds together in the teeth of falling shipments. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-california-sales-down-seven-straight-quarters-2025-07-22/ Elon's moved on from Tesla, you just don't know it yet . . . but you will.

the problem with your thesis is that FSD needs to be just hard enough that only Tesla can crack it, but not too hard that they don't, and not any easier so other efforts like Waymo and NVIDIA's remain behind and can't enter the same market at the same costs. There's a moat with Windows, iPhones. There's no moat with ride hailing.

This is from two years ago when Tesla shares were nearly half of today's worth. If options don't materialise Tesla shares still make up more than half his fortune. https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/financialpost/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/elon-musk-wealth-july-20.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&type=webp&sig=bIrRaC6dOxLbH_28jMBQDA

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It’s down 15% year to date.And it was nearly 20% down a couple of days ago

Sooner or later it all has to collapse because other than share price speculation, no actual money is being made.

That's exactly what it is. Funneling other peoples' money between failing businesses to keep the illusion going.

Climate change grifting in Tesla's case.

Why are you posting AI slop?

Kind of like an Uber but less safe.

Look up what happened in 2008. Same principles apply. Time it and you will get very wealthy.

I saw someone describe Dojo, some in house thing that Elon is closing this week, as an "in house alternative" to Nvidia. Interesting lol.

Would be nice if you could just increase stock price forever but banks don't get to decide that.

That was before the presidential grift and alienating his largest base. All of the gains in the last year have been carried in on the back of corruption and presidential access.

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The product of Tesla has always been the share price. Everything else are just props to keep it up.

Tesla is the only one of his companies (that I am aware of) with positive cash flow. While he may have stock in other companies, if the cap for Tesla were to drop, he’d have to sell shares of either Tesla or another company to produce the cash to service his debt. Yes, he’s worth a fortune, but with Tesla being the only company that is so far producing positive cash flow , they are in big trouble. That company is a bloated beached whale and it’s only a matter of time for their dwindling cash positions to run up against reality

So I guess Cathy Wood and just about every major investment firms are buying meme stocks now. LOL what this forum doesn't understand about Tesla is funny. It's really easy don't buy stocks you don't understand.

He’a got Russian and Gulf money supporting the price because they view him as an asset.

Cathie Wood probably isn't the best benchmark. I know she loves TSLA, but didn't she lose a fortune in spite of making huge bank with bitcoin? Last I checked only a small minority of reputable firms still recommend TSLA as hold or buy. Most agree it’s overvalued based on Musk’s track record of overpromising and underdelivering and the volatility of the company.

Look 47% of the stock is held by institutional investors and we are supposed to believe they are all not reputable? Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street are some of the largest institutional holders. I'd ask you to explain how Vanguard isn't reputable but the truth is you don't like the stock. That's fine but it's hardly a reckless investment. I've found reddit is vehemently against tesla with someone in April telling me it was going to $100 in like a week or month or something. It's at $333 today. I've made tons of money on the stock. I don't buy and hold much. The volatility is awesome for swing stock practices. I am holding through December maybe a little longer for some shares. I took some profit today but I'm looking forward to robotaxi expansion (they just got their permit in Texas today). I'm looking for the Semi Truck release and the continued purchase of Mega packs by electric companies who want to increase supply capacity without expanding their generation capacity. You don't like these products or Elon great but as I tell all the Reddit threads make sure to be careful on the short have and exit or avoid the stock.

Musk's Empire of Dirt.

Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street are largely ETFs and index funds. They are not taking views on any of the stocks in these funds. They just buy what’s in the associated benchmark index.

Seriously if vision only autonomous driving was as inevitable as Elon thinks lots of other companies would be developing it. The idea that only Tesla can do it because it only they can produce the necessary training data is nonsense.

> Look 47% of the stock is held by institutional investors and we are supposed to believe they are all not reputable? Good reputation with whom? Each other? They're all crooks.

Nobody cares about your chatbot convos.

Disbanded what was left -- after many left for a competing company, founded by someone who also used to work for Tesla

Look. I don't care if you buy or sell $TSLA or find a different stock to buy. But the institutional investors are there to make money just like me. I usually stop by threads like this just to warn against shorting $TSLA because so many let their feelings influence their posts and newbies get hosed. Do what you will but meme stock generally are characterized by poor growth prospects, often times institutions flee or short them. Tesla has several very solid products many of whom are just about ready to go to market so the lack of growth prospect just isn't there. It has a high beta and is very volatile so invest with caution. But hey you didn't really discuss the stock and it's fundamentals anyway did you? Elon bad. Zero emmision cars bad. Solar energy bad. Autonomous driving bad (not perfect but 10x better than the average driver), robots that even if they only replace 10% of Tesla manufacturing workforce save big $ bad. SemiTrucks that the test truckers say are way better to drive bad, Mega packs that increase existing energy capacity bad....... I get it..... I wish you luck. My Roth is up and I'm satisfied with my rate of return so beyond that it's all just smoke in the ether.

Damned shame.  In reality they are good cars.  A lot good people who work building the cars will get fucked. Even this week the Tesla board doubled down on being insanely stupid give him a $29B bonus. That was the last chance for them to have turned this around.   They're all going down now.

Yeah turns out the team owned the patents not Tesla and they up and left Elon with nothing. Glorious.

Wait they left on their own?

I am not sure shy you are getting down voted (other than the generally stupid people on reddit). You bring up good points

Yes

The sarcasm was laid on pretty thick. Funny stuff!!

Its a problem because we will be forced to bail them and Tesla out like we did the banks

And if  Elon used LIDAR his cars would see what he did there too

Why not just let TSLA implode and get removed from SPX? Seems like it could happen eventually.

I don’t get why people keep saying “but the future of Tesla is AI and humanoid robots.” There’s several dozen companies already making money in AI and much farther along. It’s highly competitive. Robotics experts say humanoid robots are stupid. They say you should build robots that look like a cart with an arm to pick up and move things, or whatever specialized task is at hand. But a human? That’s like ten thousand moving parts. Not to mention a biped is hard to balance and give dexterity to. And why does it need a face? The reality is Tesla is a car company. It may very well have negative EPS by Q4. Does it own its gigafactories or rent/lease? If European nations manipulate the carbon taxes/credits to hurt Musk, the company will be at serious risk. I just don’t know if Tesla will be around in 2028 without tax credits, environmental credits, EV credits, solar credits, etc.

Not true. The *only* significant investors In TSLA are Elmo and handful of index funds. Nobody else has anywhere near enough stock to manipulate the price.

Tesla is worthless to any investor. It has one totally outdated platform, negligible spare parts inventory, collapsing sales, a toxic brand, no dealerships and massive potential liabilities. It can't be integrated into existing supply chains.

It's currently that turd that keeps floating after each bad quarterly financial flush.

I absolutely do not believe that. It can be done with options anyways.

It’s true vanguard has shares as do others. What I’m saying is those would be in the high risk category. Everyone pretty much lists them as volatile stocks, just some are more comfortable with it. If you want to buy the stock yourself an advisor will tell you it’s in the high risk high reward category. I mean I’ve owned the stock too. My main point is no one knows when it’s gonna go down, just get out when it’s still good. Will it go up or down based on poor company performance? No one knows. The guy seems to be able to consistently fail with little consequence.

Another thing is they have no brain for their Optimus robots. All the demos are remote operated! All of them. The brain is the key missing part. Many other companies tried to make brains or higher level software controllers. Google bought Boston dynamics and then sold them, gave up. The software is the key for robotaxis. The cars are not the key, the cars are not that expensive, either. All the Tesla fanboys can't seem to grasp these facts. Waymo has the auto drive software, 250k paid rides a week. Tesla has 100 selected influencers paying each week, if it's a good week. In California their robotaxis are just a regular taxi requiring a human driver. Tesla didn't even apply for the no driver California license

The theory, at least, of making humanoid robots is that they can replace a person by using the exact same equipment a human would, and you wouldn’t need to design so many specialized ones or need multiple ones for multiple roles.

I understand that. But for instance if iPhone production were to come to the US, a humanoid robot is the wrong type of automation to assemble an iPhone. Just because it looks like a human doesn’t mean it’ll be as efficient as a human in a Chinese/Indian factory. If iPhone production happens in the US, it’ll be automated in more of an assembly line fashion with robotic arms lifting, attaching, screwing, etc. I hear Tesla faithful talking about literally having humanoid robots doing domestic service like Rosie from Jetsons or like American autoworkers or manufacturers on an assembly line. I just don’t see any of that as compelling. A specialized robot has to cost $30-100k, need maintenance, calibration, charging, programming, etc. Automation is a tool to assist in a workforce, but it’s not this glorified human-worker replacement theory Tesla fanboys make it out to be.

Genuine question here: doesn’t Musk have enough money to cover those loans personally as the world’s richest man before it impacted Tesla to this magnitude? And it would be in his best interest do so before the fragility we speak of manifests? I assume he takes out loans for tax and savings purposes and not because he couldn’t pay for everything outright several times over.

👏🏻

👌🏻

Let’s clarify here. Vanguard and Blackrock are not institutional investors that hold Tesla shares as a long position and a bet on the company’s future growth. Rather, they are two large managers of index equity mutual funds that are designed to match the performance of underlying indexes such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. It is the individual shareholders themselves who must sell their Tesla shares for the company’s inflated stock price to decline.

Great! We’d buy again. Problem solved!

If you are good at fundamentals it has been reckless for years

True enough but if that hasn't been the sentiment from outsiders the entire time I remember everyone saying to sell when I was at 300% gains, I've been at 2100-2400% gains this past year so idk i just go off my own judgement I sold like 80 shares yesterday after this interaction though haha better to be a littttleee safe I would like to find something a little more ethical to support

It’s just like the Trump playbook from his real estate investments. Be too big to fail. 🤦‍♂️

jeez look at your own profile my guy all you do is talk about elon you need some help

You realize that's the entire point of this sub, right, "my guy"? Fuck Elon. Fuck Tesla. FSD is a sham and so is the Cyberobotaxi.

Praise glorious Musk

Kiss musk