We laugh at your "giga". For TSLA talk, and flotsam and jetsam not warranting its own post...
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1m5evhr/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jul_21/
Tesla registrations are very strange in the EU. Last month (June) in the reporting countries, Tesla recorded a respectable 20,143 registrations (for context, Volkswagen brand recorded 10,835), but in July this has plunged to 2,334 so far (VW brand at 6,091). That's just strange... Tesla (Jan) 4,183 (Feb) 7,776 (Mar) 14,290 (Apr) 2,821 (May) 7,716 (Jun) 20,143 (Jul) 2,332 so far The VW numbers are much more consistent with a much lower variance: VW (Jan) 8,577 (Feb) 7,300 (Mar) 12,007 (Apr) 9,694 (May) 10,468 (Jun) 10,835 (Jul) 6,091 so far There are shenanigans afoot that cannot be explained by production capacity and logistics!
They do this to artificially inflate the quarter end cash balance. They push deliveries to the end of the quarter, gets the money immediately, and then wait until the beginning of the next quarter to pay the bills associated with the sales. At least that's the explanation I have heard and that rhymes well with all the other trickeries found in their earnings reports.
I could see this being the case. It's all fascinating that a company that's so valuable and with so much cash on hand chooses to consistently tweak numbers every quarter. We know their core business isn't healthy but they've been doing funky accounting for years upon years.
They sold over 7K in Turkey alone in June. I think Sweden and maybe a couple of others had a spike as well. No idea why.
Do we know those registrations represent genuine sales to people who are now driving the cars, or might Tesla be registering them, claiming they're about to deploy them as Robotaxis, which then might, quietly, end up as low-milage cars on second-hand car dealers' lots?
Rumors of a BNA airport to Nashville boring tunnel. More news to come today? As a middle Tennesseean I sure as hell hope the grift doesn't come this close to home.
The restaurant business is hard. Perusing the LA County property viewer, it appears the land alone for the restaurant site cost almost $17 million. That's a whole lot of $17 hot dogs to recoup startup costs. For anyone interested, I found the site plan here: [https://planning.lacity.gov/pdiscaseinfo/document/MTE3MDE0/fe3b456d-e5a5-4f0e-9fa7-879f1ff43502/pdd](https://planning.lacity.gov/pdiscaseinfo/document/MTE3MDE0/fe3b456d-e5a5-4f0e-9fa7-879f1ff43502/pdd) The cover sheet is interesting - the entire design team, to include architect, civil, structural, and mep are all Tesla employees. I've never encountered this - maybe it makes sense for something specialized like a car factory, but to use in-house design for something as simple as a restaurant? I think it speaks to the control Musk has to exert over everything. Also, the listed Project Manager is 35ish years old, based on her linkedin...nothing wrong with that, but continues a pattern of Musk using fairly young professionals at his companies - IMHO so he can push them around more than an old timer would put up with. And she was really only 32 when the process started. I found some minutes of an early zoning meeting: [https://planning.lacity.gov/pdiscaseinfo/document/MjkyMTk0/1823a02c-5d95-4003-95c4-258347c32f18/pdd](https://planning.lacity.gov/pdiscaseinfo/document/MjkyMTk0/1823a02c-5d95-4003-95c4-258347c32f18/pdd) One interesting nugget - Tesla is supposed to post a "complaint line" sign...so somewhere on that site is a sign with a phone number, where people can complain to the city about noise, etc. Interesting to know. On page 11 we get to see the opinion of a resident in that condo building next door - she is not happy at all about the movie screen or traffic. Another interesting aspect - for reasons that I assume have something to do with zoning or parking stall count, Tesla emphasizes in the hearing that the site is a *Charging Station*...not a restaurant. Kind of a stretch, IMHO. Anyway, I can easily see the price tag for the building and parking lot topping $6 million, so out of the gate TSLA probably has costs on the order of $23 million. Not only is this a deep hole to climb out of...its also a rounding error in the car business. So I'm not so sure Diner Dollars will replace lost Robo-Riches if FSD doesn't pan out.
>I sure as hell hope the grift doesn't come this close to home. If history is any guide, Nashville will probably waste a few hundred thousand dollars on TBC's preliminary design...but in a year or so, the hoopla will be long forgotten. This announcement has some familiar tones...no comment from the airport, no comment from the state, no comment from the city.
I swear Elon's main hobby before he bought Twitter was messing with short sellers. Tesla isn't a meme stock, it just exists to push narratives around.
not surprised we're $5 away from round-tripping back to pre-EC LOL. (New calls can gamma-push this stock around a lot.) My puts I bought pre-EC were Q1 plays so I just have to sit on my hands and let this quarter and next play out. The San Francisco robotaxi rollout this weekend was awesome . . . /s There might be shareholder-diluting events with the annual meeting this November, right?
Whole idea is basically to minimize inventory at the end of the quarter to maximize cash on hand. Initially a big part of the problem for Tesla was shipping to multiple markets around the world from a single factory in the US too. So you would have most of the deliveries in the last month of the quarter because all the vehicles they were shipping overseas took like a month to get there and then they producing and shipping within the US itself for the last few weeks of the quarter to the point where deliveries in California would be shipped last to eek out every sale possible. Now that they have multiple factories some of it boils down to them doing line upgrades early in the quarter, holidays and a million other things but the goal of minimizing inventory and maximizing cash on hand remains the same. Some of it lately has also boiled down to discounting. Tesla wants to sell a certain number of vehicles to keep the delivery report from looking too bad and it's obviously it's a bit easier to sit on vehicles earlier in the quarter and hope things improve than it is at the end of the quarter when they need to move vehicles to meet some delivery number. They haven't been production constrained for a while really and Musk has nuked the brand's popularity to the point where a lot of this reactive discounting has to be done.
> Tesla is supposed to post a "complaint line" sign...so somewhere on that site is a sign with a phone number, where people can complain to the city about noise, etc. Interesting to know. Musk probably had a poop emoji sign made to be in compliance.
TSLA's market cap is up $47B today, more than Honda or Ford's
Of course - Ford isn't selling an army of poverty ending robots and Honda is lacking in their flying robotaxi line-up.
Great info. THanks.
In today's *disruptive* news, I learned that Ford has licensed a chain of 32 restaurants - *Ford's Garage.* It was started in 2012 and operates in 8 states...and the menu even features a "Cali Roadster". The staff wear patched shirts like service techs - pretty cool. [https://fordsgarageusa.com/](https://fordsgarageusa.com/) So I guess TSLA is just as far behind in the restaurant business as they are in the autonomous taxi business.
But I don't see any large outdoor movie screens
\- Say you're going to build a billion robots a year someday \- Announce business deal with Samsung \+35B in market cap. P/E 198. Sounds about right.
Its weird. They've got these dinosaur flat screen tvs *inside the restaurant*...like some ancient sports bar. I mean, what kind of lunatic wants to sit down at a table indoors when they eat? In the *future*^(tm), we'll all eat outdoors or in the car with food in our lap.
With each new earnings miss the PE ratio on the stock only goes higher. Makes me feel better about shorting longer dated naked calls at absurd strikes like 600+
Anyone thinking fucking restaurants with chargers was going to somehow be an ungodly great boon to Tesla's business was not someone to take seriously. Their estimates for FSD/robotaxi revenue was on the absurd side at like 100b per year, you cannot do that with restaurants. For perspective, mcdonalds which is one of the biggest restaurant chains in the world, only grosses about 6B per quarter in revenue for a sum of 32B per year. And that took them like 30 years to build to the point of being the #1 in the world. At best tesla will maybe get a very very small bump in revenue from this restaurant from it being the first restaurant to have official charging stalls, I guess, but I don't see it being anywhere near this astronomical development that tesla fanboys say its going to be
4183 -> 7776 -> 14290 -> 2821 -> 7716 -> 20143 -> 2332 Is quite the interesting fluctuation indeed. Do we have these same numbers for 2024 for EU? You would need to compare year to year to remove any sort of seasonality or some type of weird month to month discrepancy that could arise for any number of legitimate reasons.
Great info. Some interesting points. There's supposed to be a 45ft tall screen of bamboo on the interior perimeter, I guess it hasn't been grown/built yet?? It's meant to screen out the video light, but if true it will certainly also screen out the remaining view for the apartment building too. *"We are not expecting demand that will queue cars down Orange Drive".* Well nuts to that one, but sure maybe it's just opening hype time which is causing the local traffic nightmare... The second link above gives a lot of operating conditions and expectations. I wonder how many will be honored and whether there will be review if things don't go according to the promises? There's no fire safety plan in this document, but I wonder how easy it will be to extinguish multiple adjacent EV fires in a crowded charging lot with blocked streets? Hmm, well it doesn't say.
McDonalds isn't veRtiCAlly iNTeGRatEd! Franchise owners get half the revenue. TSLA will *own* their restaurants and *own* the competition! I'm kidding of course...but FYI, this is by no means the first restaurant to have *"official"* charging stalls. My local Arby's has been an 8 stall supercharger site for 11 years. The stalls aren't just next to the restaurant - they're on the same parcel of land owned by the Arby's franchise. I'm sure Tesla has superchargers co-located with dozens of restaurant sites. like this already.
Lol. The complaint line is to be staffed and responded to within 24 hours. Yeah, just like all non-existent Tesla PR: "nobody was available, nor answered our call, Tesla disbanded the PR department". People should post this number and actually try calling it to report crowding, litter, noise, light and other violations. See if anything comes of the complaints. *"Complaint phone number and email address shall be posted at the Entry, visible to pedestrians, and Customer service desk, front desk, or near the reception area"*
I noticed the bamboo promise...I didn't really remember seeing this in photos, but I went back and find there is some sort of tall vegetation on the north line - could be the promised bamboo. My prediction is in less than a year the hype will die down, and this place will have "normal" restaurant traffic. Its the double edged sword of marketing the thing as a novelty - sure Elongelicals will literally fly in to LA to experience it, but they'll only come ONCE, buy the t-shirt and add it to their Elon shrines back home. Sooner or later, they'll close the restaurant and just make it an Optimus massage parlor.
Yeah the hype will abate, the smell will linger. It will just be "a local thing" in a few months. It does seem to be a target for the protesters, I wonder if that will continue. Will Optimus ever do more than dole out popcorn? Will tele-Optimus even be maintained or was that just for the opening few weeks?
I had to read that several times to get my head 'round it. I'd not even looked at options before I realised how absurdly overpriced TSLA obviously is, but the idea of shorting calls is a completely novel concept for me, thanks for sharing. I expect they will have been a lucrative investment for you! What is the advantage cf., say, simply buying longer dated puts?
Just think in 6-12 months sales will be in the gutter so that P/E could be much much higher.
possibly a fleet deal or turkish corruption to goose the numbers?
After Q3, P/E should start its climb to ♾️.
I'm not sure if this is the space for this, but did anyone see The Atlantic piece on MSNBC this morning? "How NASA Engineered Its Own Decline" The agency once projected America’s loftiest ideals. Then it ceded its ambitions to Elon Musk. Well worth a read. [How NASA Engineered Its Own Decline](https://archive.ph/N7m24#selection-667.0-673.94)
Google is down on earnings beat. Tesla is up on poor earnings. Google has working waymo doing 259k trips a week. Tesla does 7000 miles with close calls in under a month.
I'm in Sweden, doing a bit of road-tripping, listening to radio. There was a news segment where they just casually reported that Musk's Neuralink was going to make bajillions of dollars over the next X years, and perform Y thousand surgeries. As if it was fact, and not yet another stupid press release from Musk. People are criminally under-informed about his shenanigans. Neuralink is not gonna make that kind of money or that many surgeries on humans anytime soon. They're just gonna kill a bunch more monkeys for no good reason.
IMHO, its not a great place to protest Musk or Tesla, since any "ruckus" created will directly impact people who live around there. I sure wouldn't have any enthusiasm about protesting there...so I'd wager the protests abate fairly quickly. I'm waiting for the day the tele-operator says "take this job and shove it" - Optimus will be flipping people off and throwing popcorn at people...or what the heck, giving a 'salute'.
Well you see Google is a tech company and Tesla is a.... Yeah logic doesn't apply to TSLA
Just seen this in r/SelfDrivingCars \- [Waymo expands to Dallas with Avis partnership](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/07/our-next-city-dallas) \- Musk'll be pissed!
No? He's gonna expand to Dallas dude. 5 cars + safety drivers, and the market cap will go up by $50 billion
A road trip in Sweden sounds awesome but yes it's crazy how the mainstream media just pushes the lies that spew out of Musk's mouth. Say the word Robotaxi to most people and they think Tesla when in fact Tesla isn't even in the game.
See r/TeslaFSD and the [FSD Community Tracker](https://teslafsdtracker.com/) \- FSD seems to have reached the limits of what it can do, sans lidar, sans radar, and end-to-end neural network, so sans the ability to hard code to fix bugs. Too late to start again with a different approach, but stalling at the first hurdle of the march of nines; % drives without Critical Interventions was at 89% July 2022 and, via a bit of a random walk, is back to 89% July 2025, so zero nines, as of today, when they talk like they're nearly there!
Invite to TSLA ~~shills~~ holders only
Who's buying PLTR at a P/E over 700? Must be long-term investors. 🤡🤡🤡
It's all just a casino of lies man. Can someone make a fortune? Sure. But at what cost? With the way WallStreet is dragging the world into shit, what use will a fortune be? Apart from a sign above your head saying, "eat me."
That was an interesting read, thanks for the link. It is still far to fawning over Musk for my liking. He far more full of shit than this article gives him credit for.
Just saw a comment mentioning that the BBB no longer requires ICE manufacturers to purchase carbon credits. For example, this means that Tesla isn't profiting an additional $1500 (or discounting it) on their cars because Dodge wanted to build another Hellcat.
PLTR, like Tesla, has a whole cult of personality surrounding their CEO, Alex Karp. This helps boost their valuation. Unlike Elon, Karp has actually bragged about killing people at earnings.
Just saw this in r/TeslaLounge \- ["I built an Android app to bypass Tesla’s Smart Summon range limit and it works."](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1mc3lp2/comment/n5rkuqo/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) \- I left a suitably disapproving reply. I am unfamiliar with that subreddit but won't be surprised if I get flamed or even banned for suggesting that there is any risk involved with this malarky, as, presumably, everyone there knows all the regulations are completely unnecessary, and anyone questioning the safety of FSD is just a hater! After I'd written my post I had a look at the [FAQ](https://summon-pro.cc/faq/) this chap(apologies if misgendered) had given for the app he'd created, which contained the following: "Is this legal? Using mock location isn’t illegal." So, to summarise, someone has created an app allowing a Tesla to be remotely driven, presumably from anywhere on the planet, bypassing a distance limit intended to keep the vehicle in sight, and they have stated that the the technique used to bypass this safety limit is, categorically, not illegal. Here in the UK we often use the statement "I am not a lawyer" in posts, and/or explain that "this is not legal advice". I think we copied that from the US. Indeed there seems to be a crime, a felony in some states, generally called Unauthorised Practice of Law if my Internet sleuthing skills are up to scratch. Am I missing something? This guy's(ditto) registered a domain name for this, published it, and is telling everyone it's all perfectly legal. Are all the laws in the US just routinely ignored these days, like speed limits appear to be (even the Austin robotaxis were often speeding in the videos I saw, and nobody seemed to care)?
Yes. This should already show in q3 earnings. the 7500$ subsidies end beginning of q4 so no effect on q3 earnings. but i think its just about 200-300mill, so no big deal for tesla...
I just read this on the website he(ditto) created for his app: "Custom Route Support. Drop markers on the map to define where the car should go — perfect for campuses or non-standard lots." Imagine if a student gets squished on a campus somewhere. This chap(ditto) is literally saying his app is 'perfect' to remote control a vehicle, weighing several tons, with notoriously unreliable "full self driving" software, as it navigates around a place full of students, who might, for example, have been drinking, and would therefore, as a result, be more likely to be in an unexpected location, like the middle of the road. What if there is some glare? No problem, the app bypassing the safety limits Tesla imposed is 'perfect' for this situation, definitively "as good as it is possible to be", so just as safe as if there was a driver in the car! How is this post not dated April 1st?
Yes this has been known since the BBB was announced, that's the major reason Elon went on his tirade against trump. Carbon credit sales are worth billions.
opinions differ: >Analysts at William Blair calculate that about three-quarters of Tesla's credit revenue comes from CAFE standards. Within days of the new law, they slashed estimates for Tesla's 2025 credit revenue by nearly 40% to about $1.5 billion. They expect it to plummet to $595 million next year, before being wiped out in 2027. >That is a faster decline than seen by many on Wall Street. Tesla's revenue from credit sales will fall 21% this year to $2.17 billion and fall consistently in the coming years, according to 14 analysts polled by Visible Alpha this month. AFAICT the combo of CRA in June and OBBB this month instantly zeroed out the ZEV/CAFE regulatory credit trade, leaving Tesla with millions (or billions) of worthless credits that no one no longer has to buy. And as FrogmanKouki said, OBBB is why Musk threatened funding primary challengers for everyone voting for it, and starting the "America Party". This gap between what people believe vs. what I believe is going to happen this and next quarter is 50% why I bought puts last week. I just didn't understand why TSLA was bouncing back like it was from the OBBB and Elon meltdown.
not just California EPA-waiver carbon credits, but also CAFE fines too are also gone!
you're missing a zero on that. Plus Tesla has to de-content the Model Y (back to 2024 trims, no glass roof) to keep the same price points after Q3. Tesla isn't just competing against other BEV makers, but ICE too, and ICE just got a second wind since its release from regulatory hell with the OBBB.
yeah I was tempted to buy this stock at $10 or whatever since I knew what they were doing and it was a "good idea" market wise. But I didn't want to profit from it, since it's not a socially positive enterprise.
No ethical consumption or good choices in late stage capitalism but you can still choose to opt for a less harmful path - like you did
i predicted this would happen when Musk's solution to magically leapfrogging from L2 straight to L5 where FSD would somehow just 'figure it out' in any situation, was just to keep feeding more and more edge cases into the big black box. He's the kind of idiot who would say 'a study on 2000 people? How can you prove anything with a sample size that small?'
perfect for car-bombs, too
IV seems abnormally low. Buying puts seems like the better short than selling calls in this market.
Have you tried version 23.5139.6981-beta1.195rc4-alpha?
I'd already thought, if I were in the USA, I might be tempted to call 911 and see if the police had any interest in this. There is such insanity among the cultists they may well, honestly, think that all the regulations are just nonsensical and unnecessary, purely motivated by hatred of their hero, so setting the self-driving free is a righteous thing to do. This crazy hack could easily get someone killed. Whether there is a law to cover what is done here I haven't a clue, and I doubt the police would be interested in the Unauthorized Practice of Law aspect. If this was happening in the UK I would be making calls until I found the appropriate government agency to take action, but in the US I wouldn't know where to start!
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Tesla has accidentally on purpose been spotted testing their new low cost car: [https://carnewschina.com/2025/07/28/teslas-budget-model-yspy-shots-revealed-no-panoramic-glass-roof-no-continuous-light-strip-no-rear-screens/](https://carnewschina.com/2025/07/28/teslas-budget-model-yspy-shots-revealed-no-panoramic-glass-roof-no-continuous-light-strip-no-rear-screens/) Sure, its just a de-contented Model Y with maybe $1k of interior do-dads stripped out...but they're *really doing it*, right? The $25k Tesla isn't cancelled like the pedos at Reuters said - we can see it through this totally accidental spotting! Elon might get his dates wrong, but he always\* delivers! \*Some restrictions apply.
My understanding has been that Tesla has their credits "banked"...ie they're under contract to sell them when they choose, and time the recognition of the revenue to suite their quarterly needs. So my guess is it will take a few quarters for their credit revenue to wind down. However...there has been some degree of speculation that TSLA has front loaded credit sales. As in recognize proceeds from a multi-year credit contract before all the credits were actually sold. Obviously this screws around with their cash flow...but I think that's why the speculation started in the first place. If TSLA did that with US credits, this could be a big problem for them. From a Seeking Alpha article: ...Tesla's statement on credits: *"We recognize revenue on the sale of automotive regulatory credits at the time control of the regulatory credits is transferred to the purchasing party as automotive revenue in the consolidated statement of operations."* ...weird that "transferring control" to the buyer is the metric for recognizing revenue, and not...well..."getting paid". Its deliberately vague - and this could blow up in their face.
all the Model Ys in the world can't justify TSLA's market cap larger than everyone else put together. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs/htmlview the subtext here is that Elon cancelling the Monterrey plant last year and pivoting to the 2-seater cyber taxi has left the company twisting in the wind now the regulatory credit and $7500 cash-on-the-hood (POS) credits are gone, the latter effective October 1. Trump's trade deal with Japan last week has basically unleashed them, and I for one really like Japanese import cars. Japan is getting pushed out of China but maybe they can pivot back to the US this decade thanks to Trump.
Gawd damn. How are they going cook the books now?
So in the past week Waymo announced they are expanding their driverless robotaxi service to Dallas, and Tesla announced they are expanding their ”robotaxi” service to San Francisco (where Waymo already operates) except the Teslas in SF will have human drivers. And the fanboys still claim Waymo is the one that can’t scale.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/samsungs-massive-texas-plant-scores-16b-ai-chip-deal-from-elon-musk/ar-AA1JrJJw
Except they didn't launch anything in SF. It was a desperate ~~pump~~ lie to stop the selloff after earnings.
it's neither here nor there vis-a-vis the $1T market cap but an interesting wrinkle as we close out this FY.
Tesla is innovating by.... selling a base trim.
Don't worry, your comment doesn't even appear on TeslaLounge, I presume you're shadow ba*Ned already. There's many more posts that don't ever show up.
I would imagine the il(legality) of his software is just that he's not selling it, it's entirely the user's fault for downloading it, and he's given a rough disclaimer saying basically "it works great but don't use it, wink wink". Which isn't a whole lot different from Tesla really, "here's our ~~terrible~~ software A.S.S. which you can operate from hundreds of feet away basically without seeing what's going on, but disclaimer, it may hit things and you're totally in charge. Really it's awesome and works great, but don't use it, wink wink".
The pictures were no doubt leaked by a Tesla employee...
I cannot fathom why Waymo is expanding. I get the concept of testing in a city until you can nail down a profitable model, but doing the same money losing nonsense in 50 cities makes no sense. This is not a business that scales like software until you crack the nut. They are signing up to lose more money for no upside I can figure.
Elon doing his part to water down the title of Engineer. Grab your ring from the bucket at the door. https://www.reddit.com/r/elonmusk/s/K56YUvic38 Seems declaring it makes it so nowadays. Nice touch arguing with his own company.
Shocker that his companies publish all of no research as well. Clearly he has trouble grasping the idea of research exist in a capacity that might not be immediately applicable to products or fields.
It actually makes sense, but not in the way he intends. No "research" ever happens at a Musk company. Find me a paper with peer review. Leveraging the research of giants and grabass engineering is how a Musk company rolls.
Perhaps because they believe the robotaxi market will expand more and more and more people will want rides, so the more areas they already service the easier it will be to just add new cars to those areas. Plus they are using partners like Avis in Dallas which is in part meant to reduce their costs by outsourcing fleet management to them. They have the first mover advantage and uber was unprofitable for a long time as well until it became profitable. That’s my speculation anyway.
Because they need scale to become profitable.
He has already watered down the title of Genius.
I'd rather be called a "researcher" than a "technoking."
Small mercy that there are no drivers to exploit on their way to profitability!
If you weren't suspicious of the Boring Co and Governor Lee's plans in Nashville... https://www.reddit.com/r/nashville/comments/1mchbsi/gov_lee_blocks_jones_from_tesla_tunnel_event/ The representative of the district, Justin Jones, was not allowed to attend the event. As a middle Tennesseean this angers me so much. Just blatant disregard for any semblance of doing things for "the people". This project is all about PR, stuffing pockets of the rich and catering to tourists, with complete disregard of the locals.
I'm a much simpler man. I just want my kid to call me dad and not disown me.
IMHO, this guy should start filing FOIAs - to see how many of these public officials expense their travel and hotel room for this allegedly "private" event.
Well they do have 2,500 employees to mis-treat if they want to. I suspect they think they can spread the base costs of programming software across more cars - so more scaling = more better. But I do suspect each city has its own "flavor" of driving - different driver behavior, different traffic laws, different style of street, etc. So it may not work out that way for them. I do notice they stay out of the Snow - seemd to be a hurdle they can't clear.
I agree with this and surely over the long run, the stock price must slowly collapse when the robotaxi dream doesn't pan out? Is anyone else thinking its being held up longer then it would otherwise due to this very exuberant and frothy AI market? We see so many stocks booming to new highs that don't make any money at all. Quantum stocks as of late come to mind. Just absolutely absurd valuations compared to profit levels, just like tesla. I wonder if the final nail in the coffin for tesla within a couple of years is the next risk-off market crash. It just seems like too many people are willing to hold this turd for dreams of euphoric robotaxi profits, that will probably never come, but how long will the entire market be fine holding this?
This is, um....terrifying. Forget legality. I could, in theory, have my car summon from miles away or, even better, intentionally try to use the summon feature in a nefarious and possibly t\*rroristic way. if is not illegal, it should be
Anybody here have any insight on the TSLQ dividend? It looks like it's about 8% annual yield. Ex-div date Dec 23, Pay date Dec 27. Do I want to hold TSLQ over these dates? Why does a 2x short TSLA ETF even have a dividend?
What's your expiry for the puts? I've been trying to nail down making money on TSLA's demise but it just keeps holding up longer and longer. I originally bought a $200p for march next year that is sitting at like -70% today. I planned to hold it to zero or hero so ill just keep holding. I settled on selling naked calls at 600+ strikes 4+ months out instead. Seems like the only real way to profit on this turd not going up. And I'd gladly take a short at that strike if it came to it.
So essentially what you are saying is I should wait 3-4 quarters and then buy some leap put options. Got it
I'm sure if you give elon enough time and ketamine he will brag about it too.
March. I would have preferred April but those aren't available. Q1 deliveries should not be any secret in late March at least. Break-even is $232, which is tough for the risk/reward side but easily doable if the July 2023 -> April 2024 drop repeats. I consider it a coin flip to win ~$30k vs. lose the $5k cost.
GOOG I swear is the easiest long play in the world. If it didnt take so much BP, I'd probably make my entire portfolio long GOOG and short TSLA.
This fucking idiot thinks there will be a "rather large market" for the Tesla Semi by retirees who want to tow an RV trailer. Crissakes, you couldn't make this stuff up . https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/tesla-considering-smaller-compact-pickup-truck-baby-cybertruck.45891/post-30631647
Funny enough - its actually NOT at all too late for Tesla to change their approach. Sunk cost fallacy is a bitch. Elon and other workers at tesla would probably really like to avoid eating shit by admitting FSD doesn't appear to be going anywhere, and admitting that lidar implementation is necessary. But, they could really do it. They would just need to modify vehicle design to implement lidar. And even with declining sales they have the capability to add lidar for low cost due to economies of scale. But they wont do it, entirely because of elon's massive, planet-sized ego.
Lets presume the stock is perfectly flat. Perhaps, it will bounce around in the short term, but over a 6 month time horizon it ends that 6 month period at the same price it is today. The puts you bought will be worthless. The calls you sold will also be worthless. Therefore, since you sold calls, you made a profit. On an actual collapse in the stock, puts will win every time. Take this example: For 12/19/2025, the $500 strike call sells for about $700. This is roughly \~$150 per month if the stock is below $500 on that date. Meanwhile for the same date, the $230 strike put costs the same. If the stock is between 230 and 500, I make $700 selling the call but I lose $700 buying the put. I need the stock to go below $223 for the put to break even. $100 profit for every $1 below $223. So if the stock absolutely craters, lets say $100, then I will make $12,300. But, TSLA has this absurd strength. I tend to think the cult will prop it up, but that slowly over time sales will continue to decline and FSD/robotaxis will continue to be a pipe dream, so the stock will slowly bleed. Market makers also have an incentive to keep the stock pinned in a range to profit from selling calls and selling puts. Its like being the casino vs playing in it. Puts are hard to time. Although, they can be tremendously profitable if you time them well.
Are the hot dogs really $17 lmao
>Do I want to hold TSLQ over these dates? No. This isn't free money the ETF’s price will likely drop by the amount of the dividend on the ex-div date. Additionally, TSLA only has to move +4% during that time to offset the dividend. >Why does a 2x short TSLA ETF even have a dividend? The dividend is mostly from interest income on collateral or gains from swap contracts used to construct the inverse exposure. At the end of the year (especially), ETFs may distribute these capital gains, interest, or other earnings to shareholders.
Today's dipshit analysis from MorningStar >We reduced our near-term outlook for Tesla as we forecast the company will be affected by the expiration of the US EV tax credit this year. Separately, **we raised our valuation for the Optimus humanoid robot business**, as Tesla is testing this new product. Product that we know nothing about is now worth more $ because it handed out popcorn one day in Hollywood.
I guess only $13...not sure where I heard $17.
Yeah and it's extra funny with xAI specifically since he pitched it as pretty much a pure research play that would be working on creating new models that could deal with poorly defined and abstract problems in physics and mathematics. Obviously that wasn't something he could easily or immediately monetize so he quickly changed the focus to his edgelord chatbot, promoted it on his failing social media network and then rolled them both together into one big mess of a company so he could inflate his own on paper wealth by grossly overvaluing X in the process. Not to mention his work at DOGE literally slashing grant and research funding at the federal level across a variety of industries. But yeah he'll still claim to be the most selfless humanitarian focused purely on the advancement and future of humanity anyways.
There is no "Optimus humanoid robot business". What "business" is that? There's no product for sale and there won't be this year, next year, or the year after that, or probably ever. There should be ZERO valuation for a "business" that doesn't exist.
Their price target is $250 so at least there is that. But yeah shitty analysis
Tesla's brand is trash, but not to worry, everyone is still eager to jump in a Tesla Robotaxi and mortgage their house to buy three Tesla Optimus robots.
Interesting. There seem to be quite a few over-enthusiastic Tesla bulls convinced the stock will be reaching new highs later this year, based on things I am pretty sure are not going to happen e.g. the robotaxis losing the safety monitors, becoming profitable, and scaling across the US. Perhaps many of them will buy calls, and, presumably, this helps to create the liquidity in such options that might enable someone sharing my point of view to short those calls, and benefit in a relatively short timescale from the stocks failure to 'go to the moon' later this year, without having to predict the complete collapse in the value of the stock, which is a much more difficult thing to get right. Thanks for this, I will look into it.
Their price target was $250 before Elmo destroyed the brand and before the destruction of the tax credits and the selling of carbon credits.
Yeah. But popcorn sales from Optimus will fill in the gap
Yeah, I am still wondering what they are saying the Optimus is supposed to be used for
Bragging about not being smart to add anything to research is a new flex (at least I think it is for him)
TSLA getting left behind in the mega cap race will cause some forced selling in cap-weighted funds LOL. NVDA and MSFT are #1 #2 at ~20% of the mag7 and up bigly. AAPL and AMZN are tier 2 and 30% collectively. Holding their own, mostly. GOOG and META are tier 3 and 20% together. Up a bit. Good ol TSLA is 5% of the mag7 and falling. Down 16% YTD. AVGO is up 30% YTD and 100% on the 1yr so has got the profile and momentum to boot TSLA out of the mag 7 this year
The "Mag-6" go up on strong earnings. TSLA goes up when: a) Elon tweets a dick pic on a map. b) Tesla announces launch of fake taxi service in SF. c) Elon says he'll build a billion robots/year. d) All of the above
>Do I want to hold TSLQ NO NO NO NO Do not "hold" double/triple inverse funds at all!! TSLA is down 20% over past 6 months & TSLQ is down 40%
I honestly think it's largely just insecurity on his part. He frequently wants his own gut instincts to be held up as valid regardless of his ability to argue for them or his own rather weak technical background. Odds are someone with the title of researcher pushed back and pointed out he wasn't aware of something and this is Musk's way of trying to level the playing field since he considers himself an engineer by experience and would never qualify as an engineer based on his own formal educational background.
The geniuses at ARK invest did a [report](https://xcancel.com/dmaguireark/status/1949922993175421333) on Robotaxis and Tesla vs Waymo. Naturally they think Tesla has the advantage. Why? Because they believe Austin will require 300k robotaxis to fully serve the entire city, and Tesla can produce cars less expensively than Waymo can buy cars and add their kits to them. The problem? Austin only has a population of 962k people, so they are claiming you need nearly one robotaxi for every three people in Austin. lol Not to mention Tesla robotaxis only run 6 am to midnight, whereas Waymo is 24/7.
Maybe the 300K figure is based on the assumption that 99% of robotaxis are going to crap out?
Elon furious TSLA left out of rally this week, so..... Tesla just announced (again) they launched 'taxi service' in SF Bay Area. Yes, we know they already (fraudulently) announced it after earnings to stop the bleeding but didn't actually follow through, but this time they absolutely, definitely, have launched a 'taxi service' (by invitation only).
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=revenue&axis=single&comp=NVDA:GOOG:MSFT:TSLA:AMZN https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=revenue&axis=single&comp=META:AAPL (limited to 5 at a time) You know, one of those doesn't look like the other. Six companies look like they're pumping and one looks like it's in decline.
Yeah I expect 5% jump at least
I believe the price is $29. The would have to do 333 000 trips, just to make $10m in revenue.
ARKK has a proven track record....of losing money over the last 5 years. It's astonishing that Cathy is still given a platform and the time of day.
Wait...are you saying TSLA isn't performing? I know it's been roughly flat for some time now. Just imagine if it reflected their actual business fundamentals.
As a logical person all of this hurts my head. Also why is no one questioning the bot market? It's an amazingly long shot if they actually deliver (just look at FSD) but what/where is the market for these? Do they expect people to be financing bots for 72 months to hand them popcorn?
That's what I don't understand. I mean if they were I Robot, I could see the value but not what they currently (not just roasting Tesla either)
Has Elon tried turning Tesla on and off again?
For me the disregard of competition is what baffles me the most. robotaxis or whatever you call them will be a competitive market with low margins. the same thing goes for robots. there are plenty robot companies that will fight for the customers. margins again will be low. if tesla would be the only company with something in the pipeline it would be more understandable. but right now there will be a shitload of robot companies competing for customers. Tesla has 0 unique selling proposition. Mark my words, tesla will not have more than 10-20 billion of net earnings in the next five years. on average it will be lower than 8 billion
Don't forget energy storage is another competitive low margin business.
energy storage is a joke. can add a couple of tens of billion to your valuation as you maybe have a profit of a billion at some point. but not today and not in five years. the market is just stupid and i fucking hate this stock
Bear in mind that most of TSLA's performance, as disappointing as it has been, is also due to multiple expansion versus an actual improvement in operations, which have in fact been in decline for years at this point. It's astounding its even valued as high as it is while literally having negative growth.
I've hated Elon with the fire of a million suns for a couple of years now but it took me about a year to flip from being neutral on the stock to a short, since I've seen the pumping from the other side. I just suspect Q4 is when it all ~could~ fall apart on him.
Yeah Q3 is going to be stronger than anything that follows it in the short term just due to the tax credits expiring, though the US regulatory credit market is already dead so they might take a hit there. By far the hardest thing with this stock is timing it because fundamentals just don't matter until they do and then everything just falls apart in a week or two or Elon Musk just tweets something insane that endangers the company yet again and there's a brief of clarity that he's actually unstable and just winging it all the time.
Share price seems very down-and-to-the-right this morning, did something happen?
No news to pump the stock today. But don't worry some shit will come up to pull it back up
+/- 5% is just a normal TSLA day.
Negative earnings q4, q1 26 and q2 26. It's not going Down earlier. And I am probably one of the idiots on here profiting the most from an early breakdown....but I lost faith it's happening so soon
The fact that Tesla is about to launch only a traditional taxi service, rather than a robotaxi service in CA, has reached the mainstream.
That was my first thought. Easy one to see coming, that.
True. It was, seemingly, marching downwards very consistently when I made that comment; seems the bullish types noticed and started 'buying the dip' as usual, though, and turned it around. One of these days, however, it'll start marching down like that and collapse avalanche-style, but not today it seems.
I might have spoken too soon. Pronounced downward slide has continued. I guess there are only so many funds in the hands of 'to the moon' cultists with which the 'dip' can be bought. One day a tipping point will be reached and an avalanche will start. Probably not today but it could be. I think u/rom846 could be right. Musk saying half the population with access to robotaxis by EOY cf. what has been actually launched in California is a stark enough contrast that it may well be bursting bubbles. Here in the UK a previous true believer, with skin in the game, might see this and say "What do you take me for, a \[expletive deleted\]?" I think that is a pretty universal reaction. I wish I'd bought puts already!
[The State of California is thinking of trying that approach.](https://www.the-independent.com/tech/tesla-ban-sales-california-self-driving-b2795194.html)
Is it my imagination, or are the experiences being shared in r/TeslaFSD getting worse? If they are it could be for a variety of reasons, but I am not seeing much evidence of improvement, and I get the feeling even some of those previously enthusiastic are starting to lose patience.
So this was Elon's new con all along - when he said on the earnings call that Robotaxi would cover half the U.S. by the end of the year. Tesla is hiring taxi drivers all over the U.S. now apparently. So they're going to do the same B.S. they're doing in the Bay Area, but everywhere. Basically competing with Uber and Lyft, and calling it Robotaxi.
Yeah, but FSD coming real soon to all of these Unrobotaxis! You'll see! "The media" won't talk about this. You have to go to Twitter and follow all the TSLA stock pumpers to get the facts!
“Flop sweat” is a thing in tech, too. I’m sure Elon reamed out Karpathy more than a few times
From the transcript there were like 6 disclaimers on that assertion: >I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it's probably addressing half the population of the US by the end of the year.
Probably, Tesla investors always seem content on everything being fixed in the future so it never has to arrive, they just keep lowering the bar until they can declare victory
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Absolutely. They do a bunch of hand waving and then have the blue checkmark group tell them what to think. As you said they expect Everything will be solved in the future and be trouble free with perfect market acceptance and dominance.
Weasel words are core to all Musk claims.
Yes. I posted down this thread revenue graphs, only TSLA is declining Has no business being groups with those other companies.
That's because he's a weasel.
Weird that investors are ok Elon building other companies because Tesla won't give him voting share. He can move talent out of Tesla for his other companies I think eventually people will sell and invest in something like nvda or meta where stock price is growing vs stagnant price action because he's intentionally keeping tesla behind until he gets controlling share. Maybe that's why he cancelled the 25k car. "Just fyi I don’t have personal loans at this time against Tesla stock. Also, the taxes on the options are \~45%, so net gain in voting control is more like 4%. It is worrying in that I don’t want to build millions of robots and then potentially be ousted by activists and unable to ensure that public safety remains of paramount importance"
> I don’t have personal loans I bet "personal" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this line.
> Tesla robotaxis only run 6 am to midnight I'm sorry, what? What's the reason? (The stated reason. The real reason is of course that their camera-based system is shit, and the remote operators can't see shit either when it's too dark)
Just used Google to translate part of an article from what was presumably German into English and it turned Elon into Elmo. Kinda funny.
Of course. He'd be liable for the interest on an actual personal loan. I'd be certain there are business loans he's just using as his own line of credit and getting Tesla or whatever to pay for it
yes. there's still a core of true believers who won't hear of reality, but there's a growing consensus that it's regressing. Screwing up things it used to get right before and pulling moves that aren't just dangerous, but potentially fatal if the driver hadn't intervened in time. Of course, anyone who knows anything about data science (*raises hand*) could see this coming when the solution from Elon was just to keep feeding more and more edge cases into the ML NN E2E w/e black box until the singularity popped out. In reality, the more edge cases you have in your data set, the worse your signal to noise ratio is until eventually it's all just nonsense chaos that you can't draw anything meaningful out of. I said this the other day but Elon 100% is one of those people who scoffs at studies that 'only' have 2000 subjects because how can you draw anything meaningful out of a number that small (when it's a big final subject number!!). He probably also tells that awful "joke" of 'did you know x% of all statistics are made up on the spot?!'. To which my instant clapback was always 'did you know 100% of the times I've heard that "joke" it's neither original nor funny?'
I bet Tesla didn't sell more than 5000 cars in Europe last month.
I bet all the reported numbers of deliveries are fraudulent, especially in China
basically all the twitter debt
HOW THE FUCK IS TSLA GREEN AFTER ALL THAT TODAY
IDK if night-time pay loading is a thing in the US but if it is I could definitely see him being too cheap to pay it
Market is stop-hunting LOL
163 cars in Sweden, 1307 in France, 443 in the Netherlands and 336 cars in Denmark. France was the only country to breach the 1000 mark. Tesla will be lucky to sell 50k cars in Europe over the next 12 months. No sales in Canada either, its only Asia and the US buying Teslas and their sales are dropping.
They are selling 50k in China a month, 5k in Europe, that's 650k a year, against sales of 1.8m last year. Sales have dropped in half, 50% drop.
I fucking hate this stock. Should be below 295 for today.
*TESLA MUST PAY $329 MLN DAMAGES FOR AUTOPILOT CRASH, AP SAYS
Great. Now we just need California to ban them from selling cars.
Bullish
To reach 500$? Think so too
Hopefully this will trigger more similar lawsuits.
Never has any one businessman had the profile Musk has, and never has it been so easy for individuals to buy shares. The combination has created this ridiculous situation in which, whenever the share price takes a tumble, after a short fall, funds piling in from hypnotised sycophants 'buying the dip' are sufficient to soak up any stock being sold off, and the price starts rising again. My guess is that this will not, however, survive the massive dumping that will occur if TSLA is deleted from the S&P 500 index, which it can be, theoretically, as soon as the company ceases to be profitable, which could be as early as Q4, reported Jan 2026. That said, there are stocks in there with negative TTM earnings, yet to be deleted. However, I have a feeling the Index Committee will want to be shot of TSLA as soon as they can!
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He's making it go down so he can get his pay package. He's said he doesn't want to invest too much in tesla making robots AI when he can be replaced easily.
[Tesla Cybertruck Owners Share the Various Injuries They Sustained Due to the Truck’s Sharp Edges – Warn “Clean the Blood Immediately Because Blood Contains Iron & Iron Rusts”](https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-cybertruck-owners-share-various-injuries-they-sustained-due-trucks-sharp-edges-warn)
I am a stock noob but I also question why they think the stock would keep increasing if they have already priced in these robotoaxi and Optimus opportunities into the current stock price
Honest question: If your CyberCuck inflicted a life-threatening wound on your person, would you trust it to drive you to the ER?
I'm surprised a boxy metal item with sharp corners and edges could cause injury. I bet their engineers could never have foreseen it either. It's just not one of those things that is immediately intuitive...
That's a special club, it will likely be a limited club but not for the reasons they'd like...
*"I have cut my nipple area on the back corners of the Cybertruck at least twice already"* I have questions.
IMHO, its more than just the vehicle's shape. These panels are just cut and installed...with no edge hem. Damn near any other car out there, all the body panels are hemmed - for obvious reasons. Probaly high up on the list as to why car companies don't use stainelss steel, which is much harder to bend and hem.
Coming Soon to the TSLA Online Store: The Cyber-Tourniquet.
yup, saw my first CT in person in April 2024 . . . one look at the glued-on "exoskeleton" made me sure I'd made the right choice cancelling my day 1 preorder. the "30X series" steel they used makes it impossible to bend a hem, unlike a sane metal like aluminum . . . but genius boy wanted a bulletproof truck for some reason.
Especially when other companies are so much cheaper. Nvidia at 50ish p/e, meta around same. Well all of mag7 are around that, only tesla is overpriced. And tbh all other mag are performing better ytd than tesla is, or even in recent months. More likely tesla to go $150 than $600. So then why? It's a cult. Some people stay with one stock. Which is fine, sometimes it pays off like those that held from IPO.
Actually deploying "robotaxis" is a terrible thing for the stock since it'll quickly deflate all the stan / ARKK style math. Even if they're wildly successful (which of course they won't be) it's a low margin, race to the bottom industry. Their revenue will continue to drop, and then what's left to pump? Robots?
and that's with the thing standing still. the fact that it'll impale at any speed is perhaps the largest reason of many as to why it'll never be sold in countries where road safety is a priority, ie the rest of the developed world. EU/UK standards specifically cover the issue of sharp edges
When things are looking down for Tesla, you can always count on a weekend pump by the cult with obligatory retweets by Elon: [https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1952051689453924511#m](https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1952051689453924511#m) TLDR: "Telsa will be worth $10-$20 Gazillion in a few years, possibly bigger than every other company in the world combined."
Video: ["Here's a compilation of 15 different times over the span of 10 years where promises were made about the advancement of full self-driving. These statements were made to the public, to shareholders, and to the media. They carried a range between 1 and 3 years in duration with the common theme of stating that full self-driving specifically containing zero human intervention is right around the corner at every step of the way."](https://youtu.be/qpMCRDeqmAY?t=106)
All those dumb folks in the replies.. saying in Cathie they trust. Are they literally too dumb to see how poorly she has chosen and how ARK has done? Ark lost nearly $22B in 2024. Or 60 million a day for an entire year
Can't wait tesla to take down ARKK lol.
holy s---, I just thought of a driver of the decision to get the robotaxis out in Q2 . . . passive flows contribute to TSLA's market cap in a positive feedback effect, but if the higher fliers of the Mag 7 outgrow TSLA the company will see outflows on quarterly rebalancing of SP500/QQQ. Pumping the FSD story into Q2 gave the stock another 3 months of life in the big-boy club...
1% of 1% of 100 million people are a lot of stupid people still
Psst...Cathy: FSD doesn't work.
Is she on Ketamine too?
Isn’t a “personal loan” one that isn’t backed by anything? Which makes personal loans against his stock impossible. My guess is he’s telling the truth technically, but he’s leveraged to hell and back with asset-backed loans. Maybe there’s other kinds of personal loans, though.
I love this post. In addition to signal to noise ratio, there is also a lack of any validation testing or process to quantify the reliability of FSD. Or even a basic understanding that their inputs are sufficient (which they are not). My wife is a data scientist who generally believes that with enough data ML is magical--this causes disagreement and is the basis for several arguments here...
god yeah i don't think about that enough re your first para. if its overwhelmingly garbage data in a specific move new to it/with unique characteristics, how the fuck is it supposed to know with no guidance? I guess that's why they went low key hard coding exceptions again. A lot of them, I believe. Doubtless it's things specific to Elon's drives - if the package as a whole is regressing that's going to to include his cars too. It's amusing to think that he probably has whole routes hard coded without being aware of it, as a result of screaming at his engineers to 'make it work' and them going pragmatic to save their sanity (and jobs) edit: also, thankyou :) My research days are looooong behind me but that stuff stays wired into the ASD/ADHD brain, and it was in neuroscience so oh boy do you get lots of garbage data and outliers needing pruning there lmao
that plus probably an absurd cost of living. He wouldn't personally own any houses\* - why would you when you can just get the company to pay for it either directly or under some bullshit LLC using stock as collateral. Every single cent of his living expenses would be getting paid for in some fashion by Tesla and SpaceX - the former via loans and the latter probably just directly since its books are closed to the public \*I believe he did own that bullshit 50k modular house he pretended he was living in when in reality he was forcing Grimes to stay there with no security and a spartan lifestyle while pregnant and she justifiably felt unsafe and abandoned. While I know this place doesn't like her much I have great sympathy from being in a couple of headfuck/heartsore abusive relationships myself, it destroys you as a person and I hate knowing that despite winning the custody case (must have had some dynamite dirt on him considering the massive power imbalance), he just kidnapped little X from her again knowing she can't do shit about it this time
Good point about Elon's driving routes. It seems like Tesla prioritized driving data for celebrities and influencers... and if you focus on the dataset for California rich suburban driving for training, the results may get worse for out of domain regions. More machine learning can make actual results worse! And without any validation criteria, well... it seems like the updates are based on subjective vibes from an outside perspective.
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