NOT schadenfreude

Wait, why is this labeled shit post

Bingo.

Well said.

Only 290$to go for fair valuation

As a trans person, I very much feel pleasure every time another part of Elons empire of nightmares crumbles. He is pure evil.

He’s always been a terrible human being but after what he did with DOGE and ruining millions of people’s lives, very few things would make me happier than seeing his empire crumble.

You don't see good prospects for the restaurant business? I confess, I don't see the business synergies between hamburgers and AI, but we can't all be Mr. Musk.

Tesla has sold 1.7 million cars in the past year while Ford has sold 4.4 million. Both companies have a similar number of outstanding shares. Ford sales are up 4% for the past year while Tesla sales are down 13.5% yet Tesla stock is trading at 30 X that of Ford. In reality Tesla should be trading at about $3.50 per share and I hope I see that reality soon.

I'm kinda pissed today since the last few earning releases the stock popped. I was ready to short on that basis, but it dropped, caught me flat.

He's one of the most malignant people ever to walk the earth. Completely irredeemable shit.

Mr. Musk predicted electric cars would take over the world at a time when that seemed absurd. He put money and effort into making that happen, and changed the world. He also attracted a kind of shareholder who believes in fairytales, and loves thinking that by following Mr. Musk they are visionary geniuses too. Now Tesla seems to have gone berserk, claiming not really to be a car company, with very aging designs. It's a problem with gamblers and visionaries and stockbrokers sometimes, when a big success (and Model 3 and Model Y were that - a few years ago) gives them the delusion all their fever dreams are equally valid. But I'm not disagreeing with you, except this: in theory Tesla should be valued LESS than the Ford equivalent. Ford is a car company, developing cars, and not spending billions on AI and robot fantasies that seem unlikely to pay off.

I just don’t know how anyone could listen to an earnings call and hear Musk stutter (lie) and mumble and have any faith that guy is cognitive enough to lead a company.. it truly confounds me that he has any charisma to manipulate his followers

from one to another: o7

No one wants Naziburgers.

$3.50 a share? Without any future guidance they are worth about $20 - $30 a share based on earnings. while optimus is poo-poo, Tesla's research into FSD adds some value, and the Muskrat brand loyalty is astonishing. I would put the true market value between $25-$45 a share. Either way, I think we can both agree the stock is WAY overvalued.

You don't have to hear him talk when he tweets

And yet, people lined up to get in - waited hours and hours, in fact. Surprising.

The cultests sure. Give it time.

Wait, you were ready to short so why didn't you?

The stock is up 25 since March. A market cap of nearly a trillion. And more than all other auto makers **combined**. Reality maybe one day. Still not today though

The question is: at this level of madness, when will reality set in? I suppose, to get really philosophical, potentially never. I had a very sophisticated software-engineer client who believed in the "evil eye" -- that a glance from a stranger could cause him serious illness or other bad luck. How long has that belief been around? MEANWHILE Jim Cramer is saying Tesla's lower car sales are irrelevant. The future is ROBOTS! Which is an amazing statement considering those selling humanoid robots are not getting rich, and Tesla is not selling them -- no ready prototype, no advance sales on which to premise manufacturing. No specific use cases on which to build a fantasy spreadsheet. **What to do in this situation (other than post on Reddit) is clear.** Time to sing! Anyone care to join me? SOMEWHERE, OVER THE RAINBOW... WAY UP HIGH. There's a land that I heard of once in a lullaby. And it had robots. {work in progress}

Selling hopes and dreams which bypass all common sense and will never become reality only works when there are a lot of dumb people to sell it to. And there are!

Because it dropped after earnings. My target price was 350. The way the stock has been moving is that it has been popping then wandering back down as elmo opens his mouth. The last two times I'd been short before earnings only to watch going into a big loss position as it popped, then clawing back to close. I was trying finding different to avoid that, and it back fired.

I see.

We do agree that Tesla is way overvalued but earnings are just one way to value a stock. Tesla will very likely start showing a loss once it can't profit from tax credits and selling carbon credits. Where do you value Tesla when this happens?

He’s toned down the Hitler stuff recently but it’s still there ready to come out given the opportunity.

Tesla doesn’t just sell cars

Yes, they also cash in on corporate welfare and sell carbon credits but all of that is going away for Tesla.

Fair enough. . . good point, I think they will start posting losses. The strong fan base that will follow Elon Musk with the blind devotion of lemmings has some serious value. But without Tesla making money, I am going to have to drop the value to about $10-$40 . . . But honestly I don't know. I will have a better idea around Q2 2026.

There is no way of valuation that justifies Tesla stock being where it is. When they do start showing losses with continued sales declines I still don't know if the stock will trend at a reasonable price but your estimate is probably closer than mine.

This is a good post. I would also note that Ford spends around $8 billion per year on R&D. It has a $45 billion market cap as an auto company. Tesla spends $4 billion per year on R&D. But it is worth $1 trillion, 90% based on products that don't yet exist or generate any revenue? That get (at most) 25% of Ford's R&D spend per year?

Lol, take a look at this guy's 'FSD adds value'

He still allows it to fester on Twitter, making it clear where he stands.

Once the everything bubble bursts and we're in an official reccession, it's over for Elon.

I wonder.  Neurolink,  rockets, AI, restaurants, robots, and -- previously -- cars.  (i don't count The Boring Company -- which seemingly never was serious).   What did I leave out? Mr. Musk throws many darts, propped by reverent uncritical investors and government largess. They might not all fail.

Comparing R&D budgets is interesting and revealing. Would also be interesting to know when Tesla transitioned from R&D car things (like car frames by injection molding, and tabless batteries) to robot and other fantasies. In WWII Germany invested in jets and rockets, and the allies in nuclear bombs and the proximity fuze  and computers.  Of those, the proximity fuse might have been the most important in the short term for Allied victory. One lays one's bets and takes one's chances.

I saw millions of people put down money on a cybertruck, can you remind me how many they have sold?

Tulips did go down in price one day

I have a saying, I'm not happy with someone else's misfortune but I am happy when people get what they deserve. Whether they deserve good or bad things is up to them...

I feel the same way about the president. I think people simply hear what they want to hear, and these charlatans are often just a vessel for their pseudo religious inclinations.

Just once I’d like to hear a CNBC talking head point out the R&D numbers to a $TSLA bull, and ask the to reconcile that relatively small annual investment with the idea that it will lead to future insane profits that no other company can peel off.

Hyperloop?

CNBC is part of the grift. They help facilitate it whether they believe it or not. Many other daily newsletters do the same. They are all part of the game to manipulate people into trading since it makes companies money trading it, it’s entertainment and drives clicks which drives ad revenues. We need smarter investors and more ethical people to stop this insanity.

\> ask the to reconcile that relatively small annual investment with the idea that it will lead to future insane profits Yes! Whether a car company with an aging lineup should be investing in humanoid robots is one question. But even if robots were a legit investment, what is the relative R&D and other advantages of other companies in the field? And (as you say) if (\*if\*) Tesla is investing less, what are its prospects? I think the Tesla bull answer is -- you need to look at the whole picture. It's not just humanoid robots, but the AI which powers them and powers the cars -- all a master plan no one else is executing. The robot thing bugs me more than everything else about Tesla (except, you know, a certain salute). Robots are a great 1940's fantasy. Whether they justify commercial fantasies in 2025 ordinarily would depend on defining use cases, defining related markets (and which are most promising initially), prototypes, predictable upgrade path, estimating the time to entry of competitors, the relative merits of non-humanoid robots for particular uses, amortization of cost against anticipated sales,.. business stuff. Instead pumpers just say it's "obvious" and "common sense" that powered by AI a human-looking machine can do what humans do, and robots will be cheap because Tesla is the master of cheap manufacturing. I understand the value in having a tipsy wildly inspirational leader around, but then you need an adult in the room when shareholder money is being spent. Jim Cramer goes off asserting robots are the key to the trillion dollar future (forget cars); and yet for now there is neither a real customer, or a definition of who the customer might be. There may be no customers. NUTS! Tesla WAS innovative -- it didn't itself invent aluminium die casting machines to make entire car frames, but is directly responsible for their development, and now the entire industry is catching up. Such casting was big news around 6 years ago -- a long time in a fast moving industry.

Exactly. The Boring Company drills very modest tunnels and puts CARS in them. There's a theory (maybe a conspiracy theory) that Musk pumped the hyperloop idea to discourage California's high-speed rail plans. The general idea of blowing trains through a tunnel is quite old (1850's at least! -- the work by Beach in New York City) and the modern version (levitating trains in vacuum tubes) is a great fantasy. It's also almost certainly financially mad -- no one has figured out how to build intercontinental tunnels AND put superconducting magnets in them AND make them vacuums while trains roll along opening their doors now and then. There have been fantastic ideas for tunnel building -- not by Tesla. There is at least one company claiming some fantastic method for using plasma (as in the 5th state of matter) to melt tunnels and use the melted rock. Far as I recall, it's talking about relatively small tunnels (not big enough fro a train). And in the past there were fantasies about nuclear tunneling (a sort of directed core-melt -- make criticality work for you!) but they have some obvious downsides (widespread death for example -- always a catch in these great ideas). This is my favorite -- the "China Syndrome" core melting to China, but this time with a railroad inside. NOTE TO MR. MUSK: use the idea, why don'tcha (Boring Company, ATOMIC division) but I wrote it first.

"Tesla's stock price move towards what it should be", um it's still $320/share, probably 4x what it should be.

And up today! Forget cars! ROBOTS ROBOTS ROBOTS!

I think the Tesla bulls think AI is a deus ex machina that will 1) send unfathomable profits to Tesla and 2) no one else. Both are absurd.

"Crypto is NOTHING - numbers in a distributed database" And what is backing alll of the "money" issued by central banks? What is the actual reserve in the Federal Reserve? Gold? No. Money? No Debt?

The confidence in AI is extraordinary -- the billions devoted to it (in Musk's case, supposedly a BILLION a month) and the percentage of the country's electricity that will be needed to run it. The rich and powerful apparently anticipate payback, but I can't see it. In Musk's cases, the AI needs to be so good it justifies awkward low-durability overheating robots with bad battery life, and out-of-date cars without Lidar or long distance batteries Did you ever try Meta AI? It's a feature of Meta's Ray Ban smart glasses. The glasses are fun (noise canceling, useful camera) but AI is absurdly useless - comically bad. That will change, but how much and how fast is a mystery. And, as you say, whatever the ultimate success of AI, it won't be unique to Tesla.

You got a lot to learn, boy. I hope you don't learn it by investing in crypto, and then discovering it is nothing. Here's the big secret. Ready? Understand this, much becomes clear. Money is energy. You can express the dollar (or any currency) as energy -- for example, as quantity of petroleum, or buckets of coal, or a energy unit like ERG or BUT. (The technocracy movement of the 1930s proposed doing just that). This reflects that EVERYTHING of monetary value requires energy. That is the price of a car? Equivalent to the energy it takes to change rocks into metal, and to transport the thing, and bus over a few sandwiches to keep the worker's going. And speaking of food -- there is an equivalent between energy calories (a unit of heat) and the calories (as food energy is measured). To feed a mass population who are not farmers you need machines to plant seeds, refrigerate fruit, and ship the result. It takes natural gas to create fertilizer. Gold, in comparison, is ROCK. It does nothing (gold is so good at doing nothing -- like not even rusting -- it's kinda useful, and pretty, too). If you're stuck on a snowy mountain, what's more useful: a bucket of coal, or an infinitement amount of gold? **Money is energy, and prosperity is energy per capita.** You know why you can get a hot shower any time you want, and 150 years ago almost no one could? Because there's more energy per capita. The USA has been such major world player because most of the past 170 years it was the dominant producer of oil. Countries control their natural resources -- can tax them, store them. Countries can direct those resources to feed people, bomb other countries, direct scientists to invent an atomic bomb. A government issuing money is not the same as someone sitting in their room creating a database and PRETENDING it's money.

Its only deranged people that use that term.

And a fine roman salute to you as well. Hold on, I need to endorse the ADF (the literal Nazi party) right after Sig Hailing at the presidential inauguration. Winning. You are brain-dead. I'd be nicer. But no real point in that.

its just a deposit box for people to stash their money, like collectable art sitting in a van. hard to work out real worth of stuff currently because so many asset classes have just become speculative investment machines rather than based on any profit they generate.

Robots and robotaxis could make decent profit, but I can't see it being anywhere near what Musk is claiming. I'd love to see those two spun off into a separate company that Musk can run, and then him leave the car company part to a CEO who isn't despised by so much of their target audience.

Did you learn nothing from the Sam Bankman Fried story?  Crypto is not an "asset".  It's a medium of grift used by scoundrels, crooks, sociopaths... and by those suckered by them.

>for the restaurant business I'm out of the loop. Is Elon starting a fast food chain?

>Muskrat brand loyalty is astonishing But seems to be evaporating.

Indeed the 1st location just opened- with a robot to scoop up popcorn, a doubt many charging stations

I would never ever ever buy a elmo robot and put it anywhere near my fam. I will never vote for stupid's new political party. I pray FSD works and doesn't kill folks. I hope state regulators do their due diligence before allowing robotaxis in the streets. It is interesting that in Fairfield CT, there is hardly room for cars on local roads cause they were built in the 1700s with one horse and buggy wide size. Homes are every 1/4 acre. NOW, we have electric scooters, one wheels, e bikes along with thousands of folks that want to stretch their legs, stoll their babies, walk their dogs and take a jog. WAAAAYYYYYYY busy, too busy. A human mind can barely negotiate the roadways safely. I am not certain if computers can comprehend this and safely travel these roadways with the masses.