Tesla expected to post profit decline after historic sales drop

So shares up 6% after hours?

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Stock up 12% on promise of Optimus-driven cars in the next two days.

25% up

Sales don't matter anymore because now it's a robotaxi service. Plus I want to eat at one of the Tesla Diners. The stock is fine.

Would be surprised if they even make a profit

And people are still buying EVs thanks to the EV credit system, sales will be even worse come October when that's gone.

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The last earning report was 1 of the worst ever. Still, the stock pumped after just Musk new bullshits. Will be the same this time. Come up with new misleading lies and stock pumps. Tesla is Tesla. No matter of bad news and it goes up.

#FUCKELMO #FUCKTESLA #TESLATAKEDOWN

Make it two hours!

That would probably make me buy.

Yep time to buy

Go check used car auctions for Teslas with delivery miles. They are pumping volume through auction. It will help delivery numbers but sooner or later this will show up in degrading margin. Those auction houses are NOT paying MSRP I can guarantee that. But yeah if you shorted TSLA you have balls of steel and will likely lose money.

0% on a """brand new""" model is WILD. They do not have the unit economics to eat this much risk. This reeks of desperation.

So thats why Elon hyped his new AI datacenter so much.

Just wait till q4. No carbon credits, no federal rebates for EVs or solar.

Watch the stock rally with this news!

Which is absolutely wild because any other company bats fucking dragged if their numbers don’t exceed their forecasts. Tesla is one giant scam and their fundamentals are horrific but you’re batshit crazy for trying to short it. Tesla’s share price can stay irrationally high longer than you can ever stay solvent.

Analysts have been continuously lowering expectations, so that when it beats it gets a price pop. However, normally when expectations are lower, those expectations would be priced in prior to earnings, so the share price would be lower going into earnings, enabling a pop when it beats. The difference here is that the price is still much higher than it should be given all the bad news and all the lowered expectations. (Although, we have strangely seen a few analysts raise price targets despite the bad news) That said, much of the price is based on vaporware, and vaporware, on account that it's literally based on products that aren't actually being sold and generating revenue, can be claimed to be worth anywhere from $0 to an infinite amount of dollars, based entirely on the bias of the analyst and the pretend math they do. If they're a perma-bull with a huge stake in Tesla, then the vaporware is worth $10 trillion. If they're an analyst that questions whether the product will ever come to market, after being promised every year that it would be on the market in 1-2 years for the past 10 straight years, they may suggest that the stock price shouldn't give any or at least any major value to a product that doesn't exist and may never exist. A lot of companies have vaporware, but I don't think we've ever seen a company that's had their vaporware so highly valued as we have with Tesla. When you look at companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, etc... their share price is based on their actual financials and real product sales, or even when based on future products, these companies have a proven track record of meeting the claimed timelines for product launches. Funny enough, Google (Alphabet) has Waymo, and even though Waymo is far further along than Tesla, with publicly available autonomous taxis available in multiple major markets, and with the start of faster expansion, Waymo is said to only be valued at $45 billion. Tesla's Robotaxis OTOH, which are completely unproven as fully autonomous taxis, have no publicly available service, and are only running a single city trial with employees in the cars and constant teleoperator monitoring, is now worth as much as $900 billion... 20x Waymo. If this doesn't make any logical sense to you... don't worry, logic has nothing to do with this valuation. I want to point this out and make it abundantly clear for all readers: **Tesla has never succeeded in launching any of their most lucrative vaporware products.** Even when it comes to products they do actually sell, cars, they promised huge guidance, and then failed to deliver. Remember the whole 50% CAGR in vehicle sales from 2020-2030 with 2030 ultimately having Tesla selling 20 million new cars annually; twice as many as Toyota? They were re-iterating this guidance from early 2021 to late 2023 before finally giving up the ghost and cancelling the guidance. Yeah... so given 2025 sales thus far, they're on track to have a 2020-2025 CAGR of about 26%. They're selling LESS than 40% of the cars in 2025 than they claimed they'd be selling. They're supposed to be over 3.8 million sales in 2025... they're on track to sell 1.55 million, less than 2024, and even less than 2023. Because so many shares of Tesla are locked up by Musk, other insiders, index funds, and other huge funds that refuse to sell their shares no matter what, there are fewer actively traded shares, and if blind believers in Tesla are constantly buying these shares on the open market, then the share price can only go up. What could cause Tesla stock to plummet is what happened at the start of the year. A major market sell off, leading to people pulling investments out of the overall stock market, out of the hedge funds, out of 401k funds invested in stocks. Suddenly all of those inactive Tesla shareholders become active by selling their shares, leading to panic, and leading to active traders also selling their shares. Sure, we could see some pullback in Tesla if their results completely miss expectations and look devastating, but for the most part, it's hard to see a major pull back unless the bigger players start pulling money out of the stock... and the only major players with stock right now are Musk & Co, true believer banks, and hedge funds that may not bother pulling their Tesla investment and redistributing it elsewhere unless the Hedge fund investors demand it... which they very likely won't bother doing.

What bugs me most about their reporting is when the analysts say that Tesla is down X% year on year, comparing only to the same quarter last year, which conveniently bypasses the fact that the EV market is growing 11% YoY. So if you are down 10% YoY, you're really off 21% from where you \*should\* be. Any time you use last year as a proxy for performance in a fast-growing market you are underselling the poor performance.

Don't worry guys, they will count their unrealized gains on bitcoin as income and fudge the numbers. There's a reason all top level execs quit.

Bad news for TSLA, line go up. ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

Optimus giving out popcorn. Stock gonna rise to $400 🍿

Yeah that’s exactly what they’ll do, they’ve made like 300M over the quarter due to bitcoin lol

The jokes really shine a light on how ridiculous this stock is.

Stock overpriced by 300.00! Should plummet.

Because it's unreasonable to expect much of a trillion dollars to be withdrawn on things like revenue and profit declines? Seems like a decline is inevitable. The question is when.

When does the house of cards collapse?

Will they use leased car sales in their numbers? That sounds fishy!

Increase in Bitcoin prices will help this Q.

Stock won't go down until they run out of cash. I know the numbers say they have cash but I believe they game their cash flows to make it look better than it is. Either way, the EV credits going away combined with declining sales is a death sentence.

Where are the new unboxed models?

Wouldn’t it be cheaper to out fit a Tesla with an upgraded Optimus than new HW5,6,7 and more sensors? They could drive any car…

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The data center which will not be owned in any way by Tesla, but which will have billions of Tesla dollars in private equity?

Bullish on Chuck E Cheese, too.

Literally every OEM counts lease cars in their volume. If they didn't high end companies would sell about two dozen cars a month. But there's a lot of signs that Tesla is pushing cars to auction and counting them as new car sales which is decidedly different. It's not illegal or anything to my knowledge, *someone* paid them for the car, but it's a clear sign that the organic demand for the cars isn't there. And given auctions will pay 20+% under MSRP there's a huge reduction in unit margin (if any positive margin remains at all). It gets the delivery numbers up, and accounting can play some games to make the short term margins look plausibly ok but it is definitely not a good strategy for long term success.

they had 0% deals last year IIRC

Optimus will soon be smarter than a human and can therefore turn anything into a car and then drive it, with its mind, while driving 420 other cars.

$TSLA is their main product. They should shutdown their other ventures like car manufacturing that are IMHO a distraction and large capex pits.

Depends - the cost of feeding and sheltering an adult human being varies from zip code to zip code.

“Sometime in the next few days, certainly by the day after that.”

Don't forget washing costs of the Optimus suit. \ Gonna be an oven with these heat waves, the car is gonna leave a smell trail.

I like the way you think! Really double down on empty promises and pumping shared!

“…at the very least, a day not ending in a ‘y’.”

Having a Nazi for a CEO who is abusing ketamine can’t be good for sales.

100% error free for 69 miles.

Shelter? They just live in the car 24/7 and go drive it as a taxi while you work and sleep.

I totally agree, consensus forecast is such a stupid tools of Wall Street. An opposite direction happened with NVDIA, where they forecasted A% yoy growth, but deep down expected higher at B%. So when the result came out in between, it dumped like a meme stock because expectations weren't beat by a higher margin

Less sales = more time to invent

Shares up 10% on promises that their next car will be rocket powered and can fly

The other big loss will be that other companies will no longer purchase carbon credits from Tesla. That alone was responsible for 40% of Tesla's profit in 2024. Trump administration basically told industries that if they don't purchase carbon credits, there is no longer any punishment.

Buy calls you say?

So calls and shares pop to $400

TSLA will go rip on bad news.

a large block purchase just happened at 332.49 so seems the stock will definitely go up on bad news.

When does that go into effect?

Free cash flow is down 89%

It sounds like Optimus is equipped with only 1.2MP cameras so it'd never see that bus coming.

Hey Elon, can you just duck tape two Optimus and make a robot horse? Trillion dollar idea definitely

Ready to buy more stock!

Yeah fuck tesla.

Not likely. Lots have made money shorting Tesla. They have not made money for investors in the last 3 years. Just ups and downs.

Down $14 dollars already. Not to worry.

At minimum

Exactly, I remember when I worked for a company that was doing really well, posted amazing profits for the year, missed the goal by around 5% and the stock dropped 35% in one day and it never recovered, the retailer now is owned by a private equity firm.

Yup—losing in absolute numbers AND proportionately, with a shrinking slice of a growing pie. I’m watching Dacia right now with extreme interest—their Spring economy electric crossover got a good review from Top Gear in Nov, and they were already one of the best-selling car makers in Europe before getting into EVs using batteries produced in Poland by a South Korean company. Even without the political aspect of Musk personally, it feels like Tesla would be struggling there soon.

Hashtags bro

Didn't see that in the rules. Let me go look, BRB!!