The EV tax credit ends in two months

Yeah they will have amazing q3 us numbers due to the fact that people want to profit from the outrunning subsidies. Q4 will be crazy though. Don't know if they will be profitable for the year.

Fantastic news

I don’t even think they will get back to flat YoY with that rush. Sure people will rush for EV’s but there’s a lot more options than Tesla now.

Headline in 2 months: tesla prices fall $7500 across the board

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Now if we'd take away all oil subsidies and let them stand on their own then we'd see how $10 per gallon gas cars stand up against EV'S. I'd buy another new non Tesla EV but I can make it until  late 2028 or 29 with what I have. I won't make any major purchases under this administration,.  What boost in sales Tesla gets with the credit ending will come off of their q4 sales.

The people that want a Tesla likely already have one

Tesla should start selling BYD's, and just slap a Tesla emblem on them. Their profit margins would go through the roof and the stock would jump 80%.

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Tesla may get back to flat for the quarter and they may not even do that. Yearly sales will be down far more overall than they are today after they tank in q4.

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Headline prices 3 months after your 2 months: TSLA margins under pressure across the board. But robotaxi Austin map drew a bigger dick than Waymo area, so stock pumps to 763$/share.

Bullish for the stock!

I gotta stop buying puts

They'll be profitable this year, they still are by far the biggest EV maker for the usa. Q4 will be rough for them. And then it will only get harder for them going forward

Thanks. Elon.

When does that kick in?

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Can you elaborate on that? The 7500 dollar subsidies stop end of September

Yeap, stock will fall from $600 to $500 mmmkay

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What’s even worse for them. Is the CAFE emissions fine, they would sell those credits to if they weren’t in compliance. Made 400 million selling those first quarter. Would’ve been in the red without that. Gonna be real bad for them, when that income is gone.

Ah thank you, I didn't get that. If I'm not mistaken they sold those credits for almost 600mio dollar in q1. So that's gone for q3. OK so q3 in the best case will be no profit no loss and q4 is a guaranteed loss. For the whole year a small profit still probably. Outlook completely grim without subsidies

Edit - real brave deleting your comment there bub. >*Most Teslas do not qualify for the $7500 now unless they're leased* Nopenopenope. Currently all Model Ys and Model 3s qualify as they are all under the $55k cap, which make up the vast majority of sales. The most expensive car/trim (not counting CT, S, or X) is the Y AWD at $49k. That's a lot of room for options. Also, if you want FSD you can add it after you take delivery and it doesn't count towards purchase price (FSD is absolutely not worth $8k).

So... you're saying buy TSLA?

I don't know man, I keep seeing idiots in the new Juniper. They obviously have no excuse for their nazi sympathy other than a complete lack of self / situational awareness / dumbassery.

They made 600 million on the credits, had a 200 million operating loss, which gave them a total of 400 million profit... Can't wait for Q4!

I'm willing to bet 90% are people who are completely out to lunch. "Elon... who? Never heard of him. A buddy told me Teslas are *cool* so I just had to buy one." (I'd love it if MAGA people were adopting EVs simply as some kind of a political statement, as ANY sale of an EV is a win. But I'm doubtful.)

Some are saying q3 numbers will be strong. Since the removal of ev credits are enforced immediately on companies, expect a loss in q3 on EPS, unless there's some contract that companies have to continue to purchase. In q4, expect layoffs as otherwise inventories will climb. They may start retooling the factory for new cheaper model. But this will probably be after tesla invests in xAI. Elon will milk as much money from tesla for it not giving him $50b pay package.

Their credit numbers are a combination of different countries, so they will likely lose the lions share, but not the full amount.

There is zero chance they make it back to flat YoY, they are way too far behind

I meant even for just Q3 with the EV credit. For the entire year it’s impossible already.

The IV for Q3 tesla earnings is going to be absolutely insane.

Is the consensus that they will keep their price the same, which raises it for consumers? Or will they cut into margins? Or somewhere in the middle

I'm confused how these work - has this income stream already stopped? Or maybe even before the bill passed since other car companies saw it coming? Or were the purchase of these credits long term agreements that companies are still on the hook for for a bit.

Tesla can actually benefit from EV tax credit expiration. They are the only manufacturer in US who has a profitable EV sales. The pool of potential EV buyers will not go away, it would just need to be satisfied in different ways. And Tesla will stand as the only manufacturer who can do it, probably by combination of slashing the prices, adding incentives and/or releasing cheaper models. Besides, they can redirect their factories to start mass robo-taxi production. So while every EV manufacturer will hurt, Tesla is in a unique position to be all right after the dust settles. Q4 and Q1 next year can be rough for profitability, but I expect them to recover and look forward by Q2 next year.

Name one oil subsidy. Oil companies are able to depreciate their assets and investments like any other company...the zealots classify these as "subsidies"

*This* is the real question that I hope some big shot investor asks on the earnings call.

Thanks Trump - bringing America back to the stone ages just so you can line your pockets a little more.

Its not out to lunch. Its pure dollars and cents, its an econobox family hauler and the government covers almost 20% of the bill and the lease is juggled so you pay less. The EV subsidy was great for getting suburban homeowners into a taxpayer funded 2nd or 3rd car.

Tesla’s advertised “estimated gas estimates” go up by $7500