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Tesla’s real struggles have only just begun | Trump’s budget bill could cost Tesla billions of dollars in credit sales. And Elon Musk’s promise to create a third political party is

chrisdh79 | 2025-07-08 14:38 | 212 views

Comments (40)
chrisdh79 2025-07-08 14:39

From the article: Tesla used to be the envy of the auto world, with sky-high valuations, a relentless focus on tech, and a CEO that commanded unprecedented loyalty from his customers. Now the company’s reputation is in shambles, its financial future looks increasingly grim, and its costly bets on AI and robotics are unlikely to pay off anytime soon. Weirdly, CEO Elon Musk has only just “woken up” to the mounting crisis on his doorstep. That’s according to an unnamed “former Tesla executive,” who told the Financial Times that Musk has only just now come to terms with the damage his political activities are creating for Tesla. The passage of President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” seems to have been the final straw for Musk, who vehemently opposed the bill, calling it “an abomination” on the basis that it would balloon the national deficit. The bill, which was signed by Trump over the weekend, would eliminate tax credits for EV purchases, zero out fines for automakers who exceed fuel-efficiency targets, and roll back other incentives for wind and solar power. Musk was so steamed about the bill’s passage he declared his intention to create a third political party. But its Tesla that will bear the full brunt of the bill’s repercussions. “This is terrible policy and a devastating blow for Tesla’s bottom line,” the executive told the Times. “It’s not just [the EPA’s CAFE standards] in a vacuum — it’s everything together: tariffs, the $7,500 consumer credit, manufacturing tax credits, charging credits and solar residential credits… Elon has finally woken up to this, but talk about a day late and a dollar short.” Tesla stands to lose billions of dollars in regulatory credit sales as a result of the bill’s elimination of penalties for automakers who exceed emission standards. In the first quarter of 2025, the company would have reported a loss if not for credit sales, which rose 35 percent year over year to $595 million, the Times notes. The company is now scrambling to shore up regulatory credit sales in Europe and elsewhere to account for the loss in the US. You have to feel sorry for the Tesla bulls on Wall Street, who just last week were celebrating a slightly-less-terrible-than-expected production and delivery report (only a 14 percent drop in sales, that’s not so bad!), only to run smack-dab into Musk’s declaration of the “America Party.” Tesla shares dropped 7 percent in early trading on the news of Musk’s further political entanglements. ”After leaving the Trump Administration and DOGE there was initial relief from Tesla shareholders and big supporters of the name that Tesla just got back its biggest asset, Musk,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note today. “That relief lasted a very short time and now has a taken a turn for the worst with this latest announcement.”

liquidgrill 2025-07-08 14:43

Imagine being a “genius” and not being smart enough to realize that simping for Donald Trump was going to end in disaster. I honestly hope the drugs were to blame, because otherwise, I have to question what the definition of “genius” is.

Samjamesjr 2025-07-08 14:49

4D checkers. Buy calls.

Retox86 2025-07-08 14:52

That sounds awful, must be the reason its 3% up now.

THEMATRIX-213 2025-07-08 15:05

If you need a rebate to afford the car, you are not in a financial position to buy the car. You always base your car spending to budget ratio on 3 years financing. If you can't do 3 years, you cannot afford a car. Financing it beyond 3yrs is your choice

Sorry-Programmer9826 2025-07-08 15:25

The rebate can adjust your choices. Perhaps you could afford either car, but without the rebate you buy a different (non electric) car. Which is the whole point of the rebate, to jump start an electric car market and then it becomes self sustaining at some point

GiveMeSomeShu-gar 2025-07-08 15:41

Great - go screw, Elon...

[deleted] 2025-07-08 15:59

Calls it is.

reeefur 2025-07-08 16:13

I think Elon thought he was going to be exempt from this, how else did he not see this coming..... not so "Brilliant"

NotFromMilkyWay 2025-07-08 16:21

Musk thought he could lead Trump along like a little puppet. What he didn't account for is that the guy that's actually controlling this government is Thiel, via JD Vance. And while they have similar goals and their paths crossed in the past, neither one likes the other and can't stand them to be number 1. This didn't get better with Thiel coming out as gay and Musk coming out as a homophobic nazi. Trump has dementia. He is literally just doing what Thiel and Vance are whispering into his ear.

DescendedTestes 2025-07-08 16:26

How many people would like to see Elon retire from politics? The people have spoken, so you shall have it! - Elon (never)

[deleted] 2025-07-08 16:28

Tesla doesn't make any money, yet they're going to pay the CEO 50 billion dollar?

Withnail2019 2025-07-08 16:31

But it hasnt become self sustaining even after all this time

Jason_1834 2025-07-08 16:38

What goes around comes around. If I were Musk, I’d be asking for a refund on those campaign donations. He helped pave the way for policies that now go directly against his own interests — and trashed his reputation in the process. For the richest guy in the world, he sure got played.

Sorry-Programmer9826 2025-07-08 16:50

Arguably it has (that's actually a fair argument to get rid of the rebate - although i would argue for a slow tapering off not a sudden drop). Keeping the rebate might make the transition go faster but the transition to electric is picking up pace now. Multiple manufacturers have electric cars now

Withnail2019 2025-07-08 16:57

Nonsense, electric cars are simply not a practical option for many many people. I wouldn't want one for free. Watch the sales fall off a cliff without the subsidy.

Sorry-Programmer9826 2025-07-08 17:03

Where I am in the UK they make 20% of all new sales and it's more every year Imagine if electric cars had existed all along and petrol cars were new. We'd be saying "there is no petrol pump infrastructure, it just isnt practical. I can charge my car at home". Infrastructure gets built, change happpens >not a practical option for many many people This is of course true, especially in rural areas, but it becomes less and less true each year until it isnt true

Withnail2019 2025-07-08 17:32

>Where I am in the UK they make 20% of all new sales and it's more every year Because the government is forcing fleets to buy them. If you live in the UK you know damn well most ordinary people (such as me) have nowhere to charge an EV at home and would therefore never buy one.

Sorry-Programmer9826 2025-07-08 17:34

Anyone with a drive can easily get the needed infrastructure. People with on street parking do have more of a problem (for now). I'm sadly one of the people without a drive, so no electric car for now

shoeburt2700 2025-07-08 17:36

He's clearly not a genius

Withnail2019 2025-07-08 17:37

>Anyone with a drive can easily get the needed infrastructure. Dude people live in flats, like you and like me, they don't have fucking drives. This isn't America.

CheezyGoodness55 2025-07-08 17:38

Weird, isn't it? Tesla had been well aware of the intention to end the credit; Musk is on record supporting the removal in 2024. And at least as recently as Feb 2025 Tesla didn't seem too concerned about the impact. Per Forbes: "Elon Musk has consistently downplayed the elimination of the federal EV tax credit, arguing that it would benefit Tesla in the long term while hurting competitors. In July 2024, during a Tesla earnings call, Musk stated that removing the $7,500 tax credit could be "slightly" bad for Tesla initially but "probably actually helps Tesla" over time."

CheezyGoodness55 2025-07-08 17:40

Musk and Tesla knew about the EV credit removal back in 2024, and publicly supported it. Make it make sense.

Sorry-Programmer9826 2025-07-08 17:43

Im not sure we're talking about the same thing. Im not saying everything is good for everyone to go electric tomorrow. I'm saying it's a virtuous cycle that will reinforce over time.  The more infrastructure there is the more electric cars become plausible and get sold and the more electric cars there are the more infrastructure gets built. Hence the need for the government to kick start it with subsidies. I have an allocated parking space. It *could* have a plug to charge my car. Today it doesn't (and it would be a pain to put one in) but one day it probably will. And new allocated spaces will probably be built with them from the start. It's a long transition, but its started now

CheezyGoodness55 2025-07-08 18:09

Nor has it (yet) ended in disaster.

cbxweb 2025-07-08 18:45

Whatever you say Dave Ramsey

bikesnotbombs 2025-07-08 18:53

I mean, he spent over 300 million for the privilege of ruining his boy genius can do no wrong reputation in all of western civilization, costing his companies billions in yearly revenue ad infinitum, providing enough evidence to be questioned as a nazi drug addict forever, having his tesla allies/bosses all quit, spending even more time and money to fight the current vindictive potus that has a lot of cards he could play to fuck him harder, getting beat up by a gay guy at the white house and saving face by saying he got beat up by a child... idk for a lot of people that would qualify as disaster

bikesnotbombs 2025-07-08 18:56

i think he thought he's already taken advantage of it, and it would hurt his competitors more going forward.. back when he was confident people still wanted to buy his cars. i think the credits they sell to other companies hurt more.. literally the only reason they posted a profit in q1 is from that.

THEMATRIX-213 2025-07-08 19:38

Uhh no. That's been the standard since the mid 80's. Same with home mortgages as well. Your affordability on a home to living expense ratio, is based on a 15 year mortgage. Get a 30 if you want.

Academic-Meal-2573 2025-07-08 20:03

If he’s a genius, he wouldn’t touch politics. Elon is a fish thinking he could climb a tree. Not only that, he had a chance to leave politics, like he did in may, bam, he’s back again, now forming a new party with pedo in charge. To me, he ain’t a genius, he is one lucky madafaka. His X payment app was on a fall, infinity something something Peter thiel team up with him to prevent musk from pulling his company down during peter’s merger Tesla and spaceX were on a brink of collapsed, bam! NASA contract came to the rescue. The genius are the engineers behind tesla and spaceX. Elon didn’t read no textbook to build no rocket. Tesla were founded by two engineers whom Elon bought over, the founder designed the Groundbreaking EV that could go Uber fast on electric, elon didn’t design no EV during his high school years, he was busy getting bullied One thing for sure that made Elon a genius was he used daddy’s money well during his early years, daddy musk must be proud of elon(not)

CheezyGoodness55 2025-07-08 20:33

He ruined his Tony Stark mythology long before he bought the presidency. And I qualified my statement with "yet" because I'm still hopeful he'll eventually face significant and meaningful consequences. For now, by all accounts he got what he wanted out of his POTUS purchase. He managed via DOGE to crush some of the entities investigating him and his companies and gained both political leverage and potential financial benefits for SpaceX and Starlink. None of the damage he's responsible for has gotten him kicked out of the companies he's involved with. And he's still the richest man in the world. \[*late-breaking edit because it's too funny*: On top of all of this the Tesla board just handed him $29 billion in stock, you can't make this stuff up\]

SpectrumWoes 2025-07-08 20:42

To paraphrase @dril on Twitter: “Elon, as your financial adviser I am advising you to keep doing this dumb shit”

SpectrumWoes 2025-07-08 20:44

I’m not sure who said it, but one of Musk’s close associates said that Elon believes that he’s always able to get himself out of any jam. I think it’s worked so far but it’s emboldened him into doing dumb shit and I don’t see a way out this time. Tesla will be unprofitable with no new revenue streams that will actually materialize into profits

SpectrumWoes 2025-07-08 20:46

Take a look at how well wages have kept up with inflation since the 80s and tell us how that basis is still valid today

NetJnkie 2025-07-09 00:47

They are very practical for most Americans. It’s just most Americans have listened to the anti-EV propaganda and just repeat the same BS talking points.

bikesnotbombs 2025-07-09 04:55

Hubris

Withnail2019 2025-07-09 06:04

Why be so invested in what vehicles people buy? It's not like EV's do anything for the environment, if anything they are worse than gas cars.

NetJnkie 2025-07-09 06:08

Didn't say anything about being invested in them. I'm saying they are far more practical for Americans than people think. Drive what you want.

[deleted] 2025-07-09 13:06

Anyone who studies history knows that if Elon came to power everyone would suffer....

Trick_Judgment2639 2025-07-11 08:53

It's weird being smarter than the richest person in the world

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