We laugh at your "giga". For TSLA talk, and flotsam and jetsam not warranting its own post...
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread. https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1lo3mky/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jun_30/
We knew Musk would need a new product to hype with the others failing. I'm looking forward to his new political party to solve all his issues.
Can't wait for Elon to be put in prison, I'll celebrate
Well Musk has been on a tear posting crazy shit all weekend. Apparently Trump 'used' Musk because he was polling so well last year. I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics this guy needs to do to convince himself of this crap sometimes, it's really incredible how nothing is ever fair to him or his fault. He literally paid for access, got an office in the White House and wide ranging authority to rifle through damn near all government financial data. After that he absolutely failed to find the fraud and shadow government spending he was expecting and essentially left a failure. Now he's apparently decide that's not what actually happened and that he'll make a political party of his own because apparently one highly public failure is never enough for him. I can't even imagine how abridged and idiotic their platform is going to end up being. Probably like Musk's master plans it'll be more vibes than any concrete solutions to anything and just a lot of bitching about how the government doesn't work they way he wants it to. Oh and in further confirmation that the one economics degree we know he actually has is completely useless he's also pro-Bitcoin/crypto. Another great moment over the last week was him realizing the debt ceiling doesn't actually enforce fiscal discipline and is literally there as a political roadblock. I can't wait until new polling data comes in and it shows everyone fucking hates him at this point. He's going to end up going on a hell of a bender when his echo chamber can't shield him from the truth anymore.
What's the latest on the robo-taxi rollout in Austin? Haven't heard anything after the first couple of days. Are they still running around picking up Tesla stans? When will it be a service open to the public?
>I can't wait until new polling data comes in and it shows everyone fucking hates him at this point. Chuckle - Technoking only trusts Xitter polls. The bots will be on his side.
Funny how the stupid drama around Elon is affecting the stock 100x more than any real tangible news about Tesla, like deliveries.
You and everybody left with a couple of brain cells.
Looks like it's going to be a slaughter house today.
Volume in premarket tslq is umm… larger than Tesla’s inventory.
There is a lot in this market that is not rational. #7 on the S&P 500 [META] gets significant revenue from criminal activity and knows it -- [WSJ article](https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-fraud-facebook-instagram-813363c8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhNjBERxYv1ivGSCcWzQL1Us3hoXg7dmZ3TqPHkQVVI1uCq7She394XIOyfcMo%3D&gaa_ts=686bc388&gaa_sig=zdvBDRC0J28oZeE3AEqYo61HvUv39_uO-S0qmrbrn-4b0z_hmvB5Z_L5pn-Co37yt6DL9U8YzUEg-GqMwdev3g%3D%3D). Last I checked aiding and abetting criminal activity was a crime. And we have companies that turn themselves into Bitcoin treasuries, resulting in stock prices well above the value of the Bitcoin itself. Tesla is just another act in the strange circus.
Picking up tesla stans sounds like a fantastic public service. Fully self-deport them for misallocating capital please.
Tesla is on it's way down again today. Consider all the hard work so many good people put into Tesla Takedown yet no one can tank Tesla like Musk himself.
I really hope this mf of a stock stays below 300$ for some time now, spiraling to its death at some point. But probably musk posts something retarded and that thing shoots back up above 320$ :-D
Elon posting again about the pedophile files. He's gonna get on trumps nerves and trump will drop a hammer lol. Just need to tell his bodies to drop tesla from their funds. Elon is acting like a child.
In this particular case I think that news is 100% real tangible news about Tesla in that to paraphrase a past political quote "He was for it before he was against it" with EV/pollution credits. The political situation - that Musk himself helped create - is extremely relevant to Tesla's forward earnings. Musk hoisted Tesla by his own petard and now it seems like Musk put himself (and Tesla) in a position of zugzwang.
He'll hire some veteran political strategist at some point in all this, if he hasn't already, and that person will tell him that having his name attached to the party has made the entire project non-viable. Yeah he'll probably fire that person and hire some kid who's super bummed out that they didn't get to do their summer internship at DOGE or something but for a few hours he'll super bummed out before he decides to take another drug cocktail and push all the bad feelings down once again.
Is that real? I don’t have an X account and won’t make one so I cannot check :(
I really think Musk actually believed all the BS Trump spewed about balanced budgets and "efficient" government. Like an idiot. That said, I'd take Musk and his dumb party any day over Trump and MAGA.
I think Musk is dumb enough to. I just don't know that he really gives a shit about deficits or debt either and I think this more about him being on the outside at this point and not part of general looting and self enrichment that Trump's still pursuing. I really think Musk just basically screwed up again trying to derail Trump's bill in the first place since it worked well on the first CR to fund the government. He didn't want to pay to play in order to get things changed to work in his favor and now he's doubling down in hopes of getting just enough seats in the legislature that one party or the other will need him to pass anything and getting every carve out he wants as a result. I honestly don't think it will end well for him, specifically because he's trying to sidestep Trump and messing with his current hustle.
He definitely wanted to gut the regulators and empower himself. That's no doubt. But he has this weird god complex. He was going to be the architect of "fixing" America. I really do think he actually expected DOGE to mean something more than the joke it is, that was just a bonus. He seemed to believe Trump and Miller and co were actually serious people.
I agree on his weird messiah complex being part of it. Most of his projects are some weird effort on his part to 'save' humanity from some crisis real or imagined for him. I don't know that he ever bought in to the idea that Trump or people like Miller would do it without him for the same reason though. I do kind of wonder if someone finally just explained to him what exactly his purpose was on the campaign trail and in the administration. That he was there just to lend undue credibility to the ridiculous idea that $2T could be cut from the budget and bear the brunt of the blame when the effort failed. Of course some conspiritard like Musk wouldn't turn around and realize they made a mistake, they would just say "of course that's why I failed! They were part of it!" and he would try to side step them like this to continue on his righteous quest to save "western civilization" yet again.
I refused to make one but finally gave in a few days ago. It’s worth it to just see the crazy stuff he retweets. He’s obsessed with the Epstein Files atm
Just use xcancel to bypass it. xcancel.com/elonmusk
Tesla 5-year performance is going to shit this year because all the "growth" was before 2021. [https://i.redd.it/r8do5pecmhbf1.png](https://i.redd.it/r8do5pecmhbf1.png) The Tesla Cult is going to have a hard time coping when the 5-year returns drop to zero.
Just a reminder - only new product Tesla released in the last 5 years is Cybertruck. And the only thing it has in common with what was announced is a name and look.
It's a broken clock being right situation to me. Getting files out was huge part of the Trumps promises and Leon is one of the few people in the world with enough power (and stupidity) to try to push on it.
Somehow the Cybertruck was years behind schedule, while also being shockingly under baked and over promised. It's almost like that Elon guy doesn't know more about manufacturing than anyone else alive 😞 Who could have predicted that they would only sell 20k units in the second year?
Hard time coping? As if, they'll just leverage more to buy the dip. There is only blind faith no other choice.
They're definitely buying the dip today.
You guys got me in trouble! Now I am toxic! "After researching toxic behaviors in our userbase, we've traced the issue back to certain subreddits where toxic behavior thrives. We've observed your recent participation in one such subreddit, prompting us to implement a ban. This decision isn't tied to any specific post or comment you've made in our subreddit but is a response to your activity elsewhere. Our research has identified toxic behavior originating from specific subreddits, leading us to segregate userbases. We're willing to consider unbanning users under the condition that they refrain from participating in toxic subreddits. While some have agreed and been reinstated, others continue to engage in toxic behavior elsewhere, prompting our zero-tolerance approach." This was from [**r/ModelY**](https://click.redditmail.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FModelY%2F%3F$deep_link=true%26correlation_id=bfed59c0-fddf-40c1-926d-11ca4e2d3063%26ref=email_private_message%26ref_campaign=email_private_message%26ref_source=email/2/01000197db086aa8-8c6144c7-0246-4946-8525-6ec0ef990ff7-000000/iZgQH6NI-hCrE-Mioe2vEi7bdVNKwTc1pVkHmJaKYDQ=412) ·
Who else gets the feeling those holding the stock now are nearly all either funds obliged to have a certain percentage of TSLA because it's in the S&P 500, and True Believers, and that there are enough of the latter to buy up what little is left in the hands of any others who, on a day like today, might have decided to sell? The price goes down a bit and the True Believers see it as an opportunity to buy on the dip. What I think will upset this equilibrium is if/when TSLA is deleted from the S&P 500. That will, I expect, cause an avalanche in the price, as the True Believers will run out of cash before all the institutionally-held stock, dumped due to deindexing, has been bought up, and nobody else will want it for anything like what it is priced at now, and the price will fall like a stone to something far more reasonable. I've been looking into how the S&P Index Committee operates. I recommend listening to [this podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978). In short I think they'll want to delete TSLA as soon as they can, because I expect they are smart cookies and know it is overvalued. It is also unstable, which they could do without. If you listen to that podcast, they mention there was some controversy over the length of time that passed between TSLA meeting the eligibility criteria for joining the S&P 500, and the Index Committee adding it. Musk has [insulted the S&P Index Committee](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/tesla-removed-sp-500-esg-index-autopilot-discrimination-concerns-2022-05-18/) after they kicked TSLA out of the ESG, another reason I think they'll remove it from S&P altogether as soon as they can. ["A company that substantially violates one or more of the eligibility criteria for the S&P Composite 1500 may be deleted from the respective component index at the Index Committee’s discretion."](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf) N.B. the S&P Composite 1500 includes the S&P 500. ["Financial Viability. Eligibility differs depending on the index:\[...\] S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter."](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf) By the nature of the way the Index Committee adds and deletes ([do listen to that podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978)), a stock can be, and often is, in violation of one or more of the eligibility criteria without being deleted. However, this is a very unusual situation. I posit there has never been such a controversial stock, with such a large market capitalisation, and added to this Musk has upset almost everyone. By the letter of their own rules they could delete TSLA as soon as it reports negative earning for a quarter, which would, presumably, be the tail end of January 2026, especially as it will be credible to suggest positive earnings are unlikely to be in scope in the near term. In any case the "sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters", sometime called the TTM, would likely turn negative by Q2 or Q3. What do you all think? Please do reply with your thoughts. Thanks for reading, and thanks in advance for joining the discussion!
I for one am loving this feud lol.
Its truly never been a worse time for my father who is both MAGA and a TSLA investor. I wonder what he thinks about it all. If I didn't absolutely hate talking to him about politics I'd probably ask.
Zugzwang is not a term I thought I'd see on this sub but bravo to you sir. And you're completely right. Elon took advantage of the EV credit and then wanted to axe it later so that his competitors would fall behind. turns out when demand for your cars drops even WITH the ev credit, getting rid of it is certainly not going to help you.
Nice reference to $MSTR, haha. Another stock whose valuation makes absolutely zero sense to me. Not that it matters, because the call premiums are so inflated that you can still profit on it. Just always have a long put hedge just in case.
It just amazes me. After their role in the dot com bubble bursting, they not only survived but here they are 25 years later again doing.... odd things.
I hate musk as much as anyone else, but that sounds like a massive cope. There are no hints the committee is in a rush to kick tesla out of index.
I'm just trying to work out how, and when, the share price will drop. I have, for some time, thought that there is an equilibrium, as I state above, maintaining unrealistic prices, and that will probably persist until the stock is delisted. I did a little research into how that process works. The most useful thing I found was [the podcast I linked to above](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978). In short, the committee can delist them as soon as they stop being profitable, even more so after the TTM goes negative. They probably know the stock is overpriced. Musk has literally insulted them. Plus they like stable stocks that reflect overall economic trends. Also they already kicked TSLA from ESG for [multiple reasons](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/why-tesla-was-kicked-out-of-the-sp-500s-esg-index.html). I'd say these are hints they will want to delist as soon as they can. I want to know what others think. If you think they will keep it in, even if unprofitable, thanks for letting me know. However, why do you think they will do this? I suppose one barrier could be if they don't have a suitable alternative candidate to add at the time, but from what I have seen there seem to be new contenders quite regularly.
It turns out that you were kicked out of a toxic subreddit. You should be thankful!
Agree. More likely pressure from the board. Many institutions are directly asking board to reign in musk. He only has 12% share (unlucky for himt o not get the $50b package and I guess now we know why he wanted voting share more so than money). Musk will likely be ousted and he will do mass sell like the Uber founder. Then when tesla fails, he will blame it that it's because he was ousted. The company will go to $50 a share.
Truthfully, I am surprised it's even 20k...
The stock was way overpriced when they let them in. The business itself is crumbling. Elon will do all the hard work of destroying things, S&P don’t have to do shit.
It was fine at 50 p/e but now it's at 200 because falling eps.
have there been companies with 4 consecutive quarters in loss and still be on the list? I dont see tsla being profitable after the incentives go away. Zev is already gone, and chinese companies and even the local competition is catching up.
PE of 50 in a mature industry with largely single digit PE’s is silly. 200 is more silly, but 50 was still silly.
oh, thats what its for!!!! At first i thought it was all deleted tweets
50 p/e was good when they had a major demand issue. 2023 was its peak. Even other car manufacturers were expensive then.
\[Not Investment Advice\] The three TSLA Technical Analysts I follow on YouTube are all saying it looks bad. Downside to $260-270 range, if that doesn't hold $222-$240, with a bear case of $170. I'm selling more of this pig tomorrow. (It's bouncing to $297 right now in overnight markets)
It will get worse, no good news coming. Robotaxi already out. Elon keeps poking Trump. Only thing that can help is if Tesla announces new models. I'm just surprised how much money Tesla has and they won't introduce new models.
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double digits by December!!!
In suddenly sane and rational world this would spiral down to 30$ in the next couple of months...
"hoisted by his own petard"... That's the first time I've ever seen this used in the wild, outside of Brooklyn 99. Still don't know what a petard is though.
[It seems there have](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1lo3mky/comment/n19ymvy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button), but this isn't that surprising. From what I remember from listening to [the podcast I mentioned](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978), in which a former chair of the Indexing Committee is interviewed, because they always maintain 500 companies in the S&P 500, when they have a new entrant, they have to get rid of one, and there is a list maintained of candidates for deletion from the index, for this purpose, that they choose from. When you think about it, the situation with TSLA is very unusual. What CEO of a company anywhere near this size has been so controversial? Even if the members of the Index Committee are only thinking about their objective, of maintaining an index that reflects the state of the US economy as a whole, the instability that results from Musk's erratic behaviour is the opposite of what they want in there. The share price is up and down like a yo-yo every time Musk tweets (Xcretes?) I'm guessing that, as soon as it starts making a loss, and certainly as soon as the TTM earnings (Trailing Twelve Months, i.e. sum of 4 consecutive quarters) are negative, TSLA will be on that list and, as soon as something new that meets the criteria comes along, they'll de-list it. Why would they want it in their index when it tanks? I think they know that is going to happen, and will kick it out, before that happens, as soon as their rules allow them to do so.
I think you are absolutely right about what will happen if the board oust him, and that is precisely why I also think they are unlikely to do so. In any case, if this all comes to pass before earnings go negative, the result will be that the share price collapses before S&P eject them, but put options counting on the S&P doing so will prosper in any case.
>The stock was way overpriced when they let them in. They delayed admitting TSLA to the S&P 500 for some time. There is some discussion of this in [the podcast I have mentioned](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978). >The business itself is crumbling. Elon will do all the hard work of destroying things, S&P don’t have to do shit. One might have thought so. However, as I type this, the share price is creeping up again. What I think we are seeing is that, every time there is some negative news, some of the few remaining holders of the stock, who are neither forced to hold it because it's S&P 500, nor who are True Believers who think TSLA is really worth thousands of dollars a share, sell, but there are enough True Believers, with enough funds, each time, to 'buy the dip', so it hardly falls, then immediately starts creeping up again. My hypothesis is that this will keep happening, and the stock will remain overpriced, until earnings go negative, it's forced out of the S&P index, too much stock for the 'buy the dip' crowd hits the market, and it tanks. I might be wrong. Perhaps I am probably wrong. I'm certainly not giving investment advice. However if I am right, and this is how the collapse is triggered, there are some put options that'll be worth considering.
Can't Elon sell hopes and dreams like he did in Q1 earnings? He could still play the Optimus card, and delulu folks would eat it up.
Maybe? The last time it dipped into the 90's it was met with resistance and retail buying up bags. I've lost any faith that TSLA will return to reality.
I just discovered Greg Wester's account has been suspended on Twitter. Does anyone know what happened to him?
He’s very active on Bluesky still.
Of course it's rising like the zombie stock it is.
Ikr. Oh wells.
I thought it was pretty funny that they are so scared of opposing viewpoints that they lurk in other subs to see who to ban. Hey chickens!
Gonna be just a matter of time before even the most deluded of teslastans start jumping off the sinking ship. The bill pretty much cemented tezlers fate in terms of things that actually matter - revenue. Maybe there will be a weak pump with the ev credit phaseout but things look pretty bleak long term. That robotics and ai revenue aint comin any time soon.
Branch elonians were quite vocal in biden’s “mistreatment” of musk. Tezler was down to about 300B during the long winter. When company actually had good business metrics and prospects. Lets see what the next long winter has in store with alleging a sitting president is a pedo. Last time he only called a rescue diver that.
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Dan Ives is saying tesla board needs to propose pay package for him to commit more hours to tesla in exchange. He says tesla needs him till 2030. He also has been reiterating his $500 target every other day and that Tesla should buy out xAI I dont think the guy cares about money. He's worth $300b. Is he going to be want to bossed around for a few billions more? If money was an issue, he would spend time there and stock price would go up on its own.
wait, zev is gone? what's the source for that? EV tax credit is gone, but had no clue about ZEV - that's regulated on the state level, nah?
I'm so tired of the Branch Elonians complaining that "Biden did EVERYTHING to kill Tesla because of the big three's unions" or whatever. Just stop. Guys. Tax credits, EV mandates, insulation from Chinese competition. Tesla couldn't have had it any better under Biden. Elon took all of those advantages and what did they do with it? Cybertruck, a Vegas carnival ride, fake robots, and nazi salutes for Trump. TSLA should be worth ZERO.
the credits are still there, but the mandatory regulation that california was able to set is gone right when the bill was signed, so starting 4th july, other companies dont need to stay in certain limit, so they dont need to buy those from Tesla or pay fines. States can still track those for shits and giggles lol. I think Tesla sold $400 million in those credits last quarter? Instantly gone! https://www.cbtnews.com/its-over-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-ends-ev-tax-credit-september-30/#:\~:text=The%20%247%2C500%20tax%20credit%20for,automakers%20lose%20their%20credits%20immediately.
Elon just told Dan Ives to shut up on Twitter 😂.
One of the best things that's happened recently is show hosts actually asking Dan Ives questions about how these proposals he's making would work or be implemented and he never can actually expand upon it with a satisfactory answer. He did an interview on CNBC with this proposal and his solution is literally just 'have the board do something about it' and.... that's it. He just wants the positives that come from Musk and the board to somehow make all the negatives disappear while also giving Musk more voting control, more money and proposing an xAI merger which would just further consolidate his control over the company. I honestly don't know how this man has a job as a stock analyst. He's literally just dumb and as a result is the perfect mark for a guy like Musk because he buys into hype and doesn't bother to do any critical thinking. Article with the interview clip: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/08/elon-musk-lashes-out-at-dan-ives-over-tesla-board-proposals-shut-up.html
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuN15NWWIAAnFGf.jpg?name=orig](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuN15NWWIAAnFGf.jpg?name=orig)
He’s never been only about money. He’s always been about control and power. And it always backfired on him until he started running his own companies, with BODs that consists solely of friends and family appointed by himself.
It’s nice to see that Dan Ives not only talks like a clown, but dresses like one, too.
How much has that cost, and how are they going to make up the sales loss?
Yeah I'm aware, not an uncommon thing for people who are prominent investment media figures or on the advising side of things to have a history with the SEC. Henry Blodget is another good example.
The Dawn Project petitioned Congress today to ban FSD from public roads. I am not sure if that's why the stock tanked, but if Trump told his buddies in Congress that he wanted FSD banned, I wouldn't be surprised if they actually took that step.
That's just my generous estimate. It would be comical if it was closer to 12-15k units
Hey now, I like to dress like a clown and say stuff
Nope, elon tweeted against trump again
Thanks for this insight. How brittle can Eloniacs be?
[Grok is having another normal one fucking hell...](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5o6k7jvowuyaquloafzn3cfw/bafkreidiockm5mso46hma5l5muebu7odt34yw4smrppcxtdgks2sdbm6f4@jpeg) [Edit: It continues to get worse.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5o6k7jvowuyaquloafzn3cfw/bafkreifkfq35wsjp3x7lzi6p3qwqnnj5f4qwypymufg5nmaoqnfd5xh3oy@jpeg).. [And worse still...](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5o6k7jvowuyaquloafzn3cfw/bafkreicnmjwurnjpz7z4kcqgngg5wh2lpzwvhvcxmzdut3jxrg5xish42u@jpeg)
But Dan said Musk will delivery us robots and AI! Bullish!
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I think your timeline is roughly correct. Here is how I see it playing out: - Stans say sales have bottomed in Q2 25 - Sales go up in Q3 25 due to expiring tax credits - Sales return to declines in Q4, but TSLA recognizes deferred carbon credit sales to juice the numbers. - Q1 26 is a cash burning quarter
Elon recently had Grok reprogrammed because he thought its answers were too “woke” so now it’s been calling itself MechaHitler.
Elon seems to have seen the Epstein list. He might even have a copy. At the beginning of the year, I watched a tarot reading of Elon and everything it predicted has happened... but it also predicted that Elon would eventually flee the country and reveal how he rigged the election once safely out of the country. ... I think that might actually happen now.
Nah, he’s just listing folks he saw in the lobby.
Grok sure loves patterns. One data point? Thats a pattern. Better spot it!
Turns out the only source for Grok retraining was r/worldnews
I think they meant Elon...
Person, woman, man, camera, tv
Grok is MechaHitler, SpaceX Starships explode, Tesla business is collapsing, and a Ketamine-fueled Elon is starting a new political party and accusing the president of being a pedophile. Does it feel to anyone else like we're at a tipping point here? Who in their right mind would own $TSLA?
I feel like there's no outcome where Musk's empire actually crashes where he stays alive.
Grok.. ahem.. MechaHitler.. is having a time out right now. Seems it’s been limited to image generation while Elon tried to teach it not to say the quiet parts out loud.
Have you considered bag holders and those with a majority of their portfolio in TSLA? Those ~~folks~~ fools will HODL because they are "long term" and looking at 5 -10 years out. The funny thing is the next 2-4 (maybe 5) can easily be forecasted to be flat if not negative YoY. So as you said why would anyone own $TSLA right now?
Yeah, I think the Mossad should really look into that. Concerning...
Is Edolf Muskler gonna appear on the screen of the Mossad after the development of grok? They shouldn't be to happy about a guy pushing antisemitism globally with his social media platform and artificial intelligence... How can any fund manager still hold shares of a company where the ceo is such a fucking clear full blown nazi. Whoever thought the salute was not a nazi salute should really finally reconsider.
PS The S&P 500 Index Committee is highly secretive. All you could expect in terms of hints is speculation as to what they might do, much as I have given here. They still have positive earnings now, they most likely will when they report Q3, probably higher than Q2, so they cannot be kicked out of the index until, at the very earliest, 2026, if, when Q4 results are reported earnings are negative, and only then if the Committee does something very unusual and kicks then out straight away, rather than when TTM is also negative. Of course I might be wrong and TSLA might remain profitable. However this seems very unlikely. Also I might be wrong, and the Index Committee might want to keep them in, even if they have negative earnings, for a while. I am posting here trying to flush out anything anyone knows about this, especially the latter. I think if they thought TSLA was, in general, a strong and stable stock, they might well leave it in for a while with negative earnings, but what I am suggesting is they'll be glad to kick it out as soon as they can, because it is obvious to anyone with a brain at this stage that it is heavily overvalued, so must, at some point, crash, that event will be huge, and they do not want to be left holding the baby when it happens.
>How can any fund manager still hold shares of a company where the ceo is such a fucking clear full blown nazi. [I get the impression that many funds hold TSLA because it is in the S&P 500. I think the S&P Index Committee will be keen to remove it as soon as they can, which is once it's reporting negative earnings, probably early next year. They might wait until TTM also negative but I see no reason for them to do so.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ltq8we/comment/n1v5rez/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
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I don't think they can! The rules are all in [this document](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf). I just had another look through it in response to your question and noticed this, which is slightly concerning: >S&P Dow Jones Indices believes turnover in index membership should be avoided when possible. At times a stock may appear to temporarily violate one or more of the addition criteria. However, the eligibility criteria are for addition to an index, not for continued membership. As a result, an index constituent that appears to violate criteria for addition to that index is not deleted unless ongoing conditions warrant an index change. When a stock is removed from an index, S&P Dow Jones Indices explains the basis for the removal. If, as seems likely, earnings go negative Q4, reported formally Jan 2026, I think the committee will have the option to kick it out regardless. They just have to say they think it unlikely earnings will become positive again any time soon. They may not have done so before, leaving in stocks with a few quarters of negative earnings, but Tesla has a market cap about 15 times Enron at its peak, is obviously ridiculously overpriced, and then there's all this Nazi stuff!
Thank you for the diligence. Makes sense.. For the foreseeable future, tezler departing s&p is just a fever dream…
interesting. I think the article indeed implies that though I don't understand why they don't explicitly name these ZEV.
For the next six months I'd say, then all bets are off!
[Funds tracking the S&P 500, because they have to. When it gets kicked it'll tank.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ltq8we/comment/n1v5rez/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Linda Y out at X.
Just in time to be replaced by MechaHitler! I think he’s ready!
[deleted]
Who would hire her after being Elons sockpuppet?
You know, I thought the "Grok calling itself MechaHitler" was just reddit sarcasm. Imagine my surprise when I checked my news feed. Wonder if this is what caused Linda Y to dip out?
Palantir, Facebook, Amazon or some other tech company that supports the current regime.
MechaHitler new CEO
The Legend Of Musk: Yaccarino Of Time
Elmo playing another one bites the dust. Thats 3 top people gone in 2 months.
Is she being scapegoated for big advertisers failing to return to Twitter?
Hard to believe the guy who did a Nazi salute at the inauguration would later make an AI calling itself MechaHitler.
Poe’s law strikes again!
It'll tank before that. You are pegging your hopes on the wrong catalyst.
Any big company as they have zero, *zero* morals or ethics.
They blackmailed me with money!
*Despite mounting headwinds and technical signals flashing red, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said the recent Tesla sell-off has gone too far. In a new note to clients, Narayan reiterated his Outperform rating and raised his price target to $319, up from $307.* It's amazing when the writing is on the wall for Tesla in giant bold font that these idiots continue to guzzle the Elon kool-aid. EDIT: BTW, in case these idiots hadn't noticed, $4-6 billion was just hacked off their annual earnings going forward by the passage of the BBB - that's more than HALF of what they earned in 2024.
Haven't we had just about all the bad news imaginable for this stock now? What do you think is going to happen to burst the bubble? Surely Q4 earnings likely going negative should be reflected in the share price now. Musk did his not-a-sieg-heil gestures, whatever they were, people got very upset, especially in Europe, sales tanked, but the share price is still higher than it was a year ago. Ditto DOGE, ditto robotaxi flop, FSD progress stalling, only new car models being jokes, subsidies going, I could go on and on. In any case, I am trying to work out whether there are put options out there that are good value. I am thinking S&P delisting will cause it to tank, and that this might happen as early as Jan 2026, and if not then, whenever TTM goes negative, which I could do with some help trying to calculate, but I'm thinking Apr or Jul 2026 seem likely. If it tanks before that, those options will still make money. However they seem like relatively good value, I expect because so many have burnt fingers buying puts in the past. I think we are thinking along the same lines, but I also see some weirdness holding the price up. I think it is because there are enough Tesla cultists, who can get their hands on enough money to 'buy the dip', every time the share price starts to go down. I watch their videos. They either seem to honestly believe Tesla is going to eclipse every other company, with a market cap in the tens of trillions, or they are remarkable actors. Hard to tell, but I don't think anything quite like this has ever happened before! In case you haven't seen it I go into a bit more detail [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ltq8we/comment/n1v5rez/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button). Do keep replying. Anyone else reading do join in. Can we get a handle on when the price will crash, and what it will go down to?
I am. You guys are smarter.
I agree they will be kicked off the index eventually, and it will be a death blow, I just doubt the comittee will move quickly after 2 or 3 quarters of losses, especially if the market cap stays illogically high. Would be very (pleasantly) surprised if the removal happened before 2027. And yeah it would make sense to kick them out quickly, the problem is we live in a nonsensical world, thats why the stock is above 20usd with all the shitshow going on.
She is in her 60s and probably loaded.
Someone posted a podcast where they interviewed the former head of the secret committee that determines who's in or out of the S&P500, and the short answer is that they can, and do, do whatever they want. All of those rules are more like what like you'd call 'guidelines' than actual rules.
Funny how all of the potential growth for 5-10 years out is already priced in. Which makes this a perfect time to cash out a position.
So we agree on almost everything. However we disagree about the detail of the nonsense. I am attempting to rationalise the maintenance of this 3-digit-USD-per-share TSLA price nonsense, by hypothesising there are enough cultists to keep 'buying the dip', while liquidity is limited, because so many institutional investors will hold on while its S&P listed. I think that is most, perhaps all, of the nonsense involved in the TSLA share price. However, the contemporary USA surely represents the most sophisticated manifestation of capitalism in history. I posit the S&P embodies this, and the selection of its Index Committee members is likely to be highly meritocratic. I would be very surprised if there is much about them that is nonsensical. They'll know what you and I know, that the share price is pure puffery, and they'll want it out of the index before what will be a collapse c. 15 times bigger than Enron occurs.
[This is the podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-secretive-committee-behind-the-s-p-500/id1318276878?i=1000493207978), well worth listening to. And yes, you are right. However the rules give them discretion. David Blitzer, the interviewee, and former head of the S&P Index Committee from 1995 until his retirement in 2019, of whom you speak, wrote [those rules](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf). It is precisely because of the flexibility the rules allow that I think they will eject it. If they delay there's a good chance it'll collapse while still indexed, which will dent their otherwise excellent record of, absent force majeure, keeping on up and to the right; Tesla's market cap is c. 15 times that of Enron at its peak! I think they know it is going to collapse, and they'll kick it out as soon as the rules allow, which will be when it reports a negative earnings quarter, most likely January 2026. What do you think? Do you agree? Do you think they will want to keep it in for some reason? Or even kick it out while still in profit, whatever the rules say? I am genuinely keen to get as many opinions as possible, as I feel there is an opportunity here, that the situation is unprecedented, but someone may know something, or think of something, that changes the way I see things.
["Elon Musk makes surprise appearance at AfD event in eastern Germany"](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/25/elon-musk-makes-surprise-appearance-at-afd-event-in-eastern-germany) \- how the synchronicities aggregate!
I made that comment mostly so that I could interpolate Pirates of the Caribbean. I really don't know. If it were up to me discussions of de-listing it would have started when Musk claimed "50% year-on-year growth forever," and the market responded favorably. If there was ever an indication that the market for the stock was beyond overheated, that was it. And having such blatant bubble-stocks in a broad market index simply cannot be good. On the other hand, the stock was such a driver of index growth over the past few years that taking out could easily be seen as harming investors that depend upon the index. Still, de-indexing before it pops all the way seems necessary. They do have an excuse, given that one of the main drivers of demand and sources of profit are going to be gone by the end of summer, substantially affecting the financial prospects of the company. As for what the index committee will do, I really hope that they move on de-indexing. They probably won't, although it won't be the first time that an S&P 500 stock has gone to zero while part of the index (Enron started 2001 at $665, and was bankrupt when it was replaced by Nvidea in December 2001).
>‘Sickening’ and ‘evil’: Musk bashed for USAID cuts after study predicts millions could die. One physician attributed the **estimated death toll of more than 14 million** over the next five years worldwide to “one man’s cruelty & venality.” Source: [https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/sickening-evil-musk-bashed-usaid-cuts-study-predicts-millions-die-rcna216832](https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/sickening-evil-musk-bashed-usaid-cuts-study-predicts-millions-die-rcna216832) cf. >Estimated death toll among Nazi Germany's victims (incl. the Holocaust), 1933–1945: Jews: 6 million, East Slavs (GPO): millions, Soviet POWs: 3.3 million, Poles: 1.8 million, Serbs: More than 310,000, People with disabilities: 270,000, Romani: 250,000–500,000, Freemasons: 80,000, Slovenes: 20,000–25,000, Homosexuals: Hundreds, perhaps thousands, Spanish Republicans: 3,500, Jehovah's Witnesses: 1,700. Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victims\_of\_Nazi\_Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victims_of_Nazi_Germany) Add that up, interpreting millions as 2 million plus, hundreds as 200+, and you get more than 6 + 2 + 3.3 + 1.8 + 0.32 + 0.27 + 0.25 + 0.08 + 0.02 + 0.0002 + 0.0035 + 0.0017 million, which adds up to an **estimated death toll of more than 14.0454 million.** Carl Jung\* would have a field day! \* Jung coined the term synchronicity.
You left out some of the best stuff... >RBC values Tesla's core **car business at 1x sales** but gives premium weight to its long-term plays like Megapack energy storage systems, autonomous driving, and AI. The firm applies a **15x multiple to 2040 estimated EBITDA for Megapacks** and a **10x revenue multiple to Tesla's future robotaxi and humanoid robot** operations. Quick someone tell me what 10x zero revenue is? I guess they think TSLA will just be selling batteries and sex robots in 2040 which is surely a 10 trillion dollar market in the bear case.
So musk about to kill more people than Hitler? Apart from the direct war casualties of ww2. Congratulations edolf muskler
[Steve Mark Ryan is a genius ](https://imgur.com/a/OerRrrg)
The best CEO is no CEO.
Probably?
She may have donated it all to the Heritage Foundation, I don't know.
15 times 2040 Earnings!!! Is that for real?
LMAO - Austin factory making 1.8 million vehicles in 2025. The whole fucking company won't sell 1.8 million vehicles this year. It's so maddening how TSLA expectations can constantly be lowered and missed without any consequence to the stock price. Can't believe anyone still listens to these "influencers"
Oh I thought you meant drunk
SMR averages 30k views on his daily garbage videos. Just a reminder that so many idiots are still out there lapping up all the "good news". According to these prophets - anything that Elon or Tesla does in purely genius and positive news
>I made that comment mostly so that I could interpolate Pirates of the Caribbean. `“The code is more what you'd call 'guidelines' than actual rules." - Hector Barbossa` Thanks for all that. I think they know it is likely to go negative earnings Q4, and they'll use that as a reason to kick it out. If they try to do so before that they'll struggle to come up with a valid reason, as that quote from [their rule book](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf) I gave before requires them to give: >S&P Dow Jones Indices believes turnover in index membership should be avoided when possible. At times a stock may appear to temporarily violate one or more of the addition criteria. However, the eligibility criteria are for addition to an index, not for continued membership. As a result, an index constituent that appears to violate criteria for addition to that index is not deleted unless ongoing conditions warrant an index change. When a stock is removed from an index, S&P Dow Jones Indices explains the basis for the removal. I think they can wait that long. However I am increasingly thinking they have no reason to delay post that happening. So, if they kick it out some time after 2025Q4 is reported late Jan 2026, how quickly do we think it'll fall, and how low will it go? There's money to be made if we can accurately predict all this! `“This is either madness, or brilliance.” - Will Turner` `“It’s remarkable how often those two traits coincide.” -Jack Sparrow`
If both those sources are accurate, far more spookily, the number of victims would appear to be almost exactly the same!
Yeah it's amazing to see some of the bullshit these megabulls were pumping out back during the COVID auto shortages. Here's one I've linked before from Jame's Stephenson: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581637680953057283.html Check out the quarterly EBITDA chart if you want a good laugh.
They wont sell 450k cars this coming year. No sales in Europe or Canada, relying on China, and they only sold 5000 cars there last week.
It’s been a while since I heard “factory is the product” or Giga Mexico.
Did more executives resign yesterday?
> “I would expect Grok to discover new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year, and maybe end of this year,” Musk said. “It might discover new physics next year… Let that sink in.” Musk in the Grok 4 release event. His scams know no bounds.
So how long until my tezler calls me a jew?
Grok is such a childish name, Elmobrains might be better.
Quite the contrary all of his scams operate under the boundaries of next year. It's always "I'm highly confident signs are trending to all issues being a solved problem next year or the year after.."
Are we going to get an Elmobile with an Elmobrain in it?
"We'll have full self driving next year" (2018) "I expect there to be millions of robotaxis on the road no later than next year" (2019), "We will take back america by winning races at the end of next year" (2025), "there will be thousands of optimus robots working in our factories by the end of next year" (2024), "neuralink will be on the market within 4 years" (2016), "we'll be able to self deliver a tesla to a customers door probably next year" (2018), “I’m extremely confident that level 5–or essentially complete autonomy–will happen … this year” (2020) etc etc etc “My predictions have a pretty good track record,” -Musk i guess if a grift works keep going back to it
It’ll discover technologies to finally enable construction of MechaHitler!
Well, to be fair, Grok has made unprecedented progress towards The Final Solution.
It also might not do anything productive at all... Let that sink in.
The guy who was losing his shit about AGIs is claiming he'll build an AGI. Not buying it.
Here's to a rally to $320! Why do I ever expect it to go down? It's detached from anything and everything except....... HYPE!
The scamming is who he is at his heart. No matter where he ends up, that's the constant. Remember the trillions of medicare fraud?
>Musk said the company is expanding its Austin, Texas, robotaxi service area this weekend. He also said Tesla is awaiting regulatory approval for a launch in the Bay Area "probably in a month or two." Service you can't use is getting a larger service area (still supervised of course). There is a 0% chance they get regulatory approval in California in 2 months.
Honestly given the amount of pumping he's done with an expansion of robotaxi service to SF in 2 months, expanding in Austin and Grok in Tesla vehicles it's very telling that the stock is only up 2.5% at this point.
Sounds like Tesla will "need to invest in xAI, err Twitter" for this Grok deal, no? Is this some meatfisted way to have his companies merge more?
Had to get those pumps out before the Terrible TSLA earnings call in a couple weeks
Yes the world's "richest" man always needs his companies to play a shell game to cover himself. Just stacking the house of cards straight up...
I’m all for it. It’s a backdoor way of talking Xitter public, which will provide a nice drag on earnings.
It's refreshing that a certain investment sub has taken a change in tone. 12 months ago they were diehard supports of every move. NOW? It's actually hard to tell the difference between this sub and that... didn't they used to hate all the FUD?
All the true believers migrated to tslalounge. TIC, tsla, teslastockholders, etc might as well be realtesla.
Reuters is saying California says tesla hasn't applied for any license for self driving since March.
How does it make sense that TSLA is up 4.75% today (at time of typing this in any case)? It's as though the price is entirely controlled by the cultists, who, presumably, are excited because Musk has said Grok will be able to invent new physics, or because he has said there'll be robotaxis in SF in a month or two. Hundreds of billions of dollars 'worth' of the stock are held by [institutional investors](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings). Are they all forced to hold all the stock they have because it is in the S&P 500? Or do they think it makes sense to hold it at these prices? I expect anyone reading this is confident, as I am, that any 3-digit-USD price-per-share for this stock is ridiculous; are we all stupid? Are they? Or are they all forced to hold the stock? If there are robotaxis in SF this year they'll be as fake as the ones in Austin, with someone ready to hit the brakes or grab the wheel when something goes wrong. They lose money, they prove nothing, it's all just for show. Please, if you think you can make sense of it all, do let me know!
And they used to hate this place, would even discriminate if anyone posted here. Guess we were right all along
It's getting pretty tough to deny that "this place" was right the whole time. We aren't "jealous haters". Tesla, as run by Elon anyhow, fucking sucks.
I take care to pronounce "Xitter" as "Shitter" at all times.
It’s TSLA. That stock has been defying laws of the physics for a decade and there are no signs that it’ll ever stop.
Don't try to reason with this stock. It will literally drive you crazy, bring you in a bad mood and fuck up your day. Don't trade that shit, stay away from it. I was so stupid to buy puts and now follow it, hoping to go down. I hate the place where I am. Don't be me.
Welcome, we're in exactly the same place. Even though most of mine are several months out (December and 2026), I've written them off as a loss and a very expensive lesson. I bought puts when the stock was around $330, didn't sell them at $220, and now that the stock is back to its irrational price - they're worthless.
Grok 4 will figure it out. By the end of the year.
I'm deep in TSLQ, it's a daily frustration. I hope that it will eventually pay off, but it's been painful. At least I've learnt that stocks don't follow a company's value.
That's what thought for Q1, fool me twice...
https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/10/grok-4-seems-to-consult-elon-musk-to-answer-controversial-questions/ Only true source of most truthful of the truth.
How is xAI planning to make money with Grok? This is the poster child of the AI bubble. They just issued Billions in bonds @ 12.5% and have an absurd burn rate.
By issuing stock at constantly increasing valuations of course. That’s how most of his business make money.
By pumping and having Tesla acquire them at a ridiculous valuation, of course. TSLA bagholders will bail them out in the end, one way or another.
Thats what I'm wondering, where is the money in this?
Ding ding ding! They have overpaid for a business with conflicts of interest before, SolarCity anyone?
I always wondered what would happen if they trained an AI off of emojis, lame memes and one word responses.
Selling ventilators to the people of Memphis.
You say AI and then dumbass investors hand you money.
Wait for the guidance in the next earnings call, Elon will certainly try to kiss ass and use a lot of jargon, but it will be apparent that the future for Tesla is shaky. If you haven't bought long puts expiring june 2026 or jan 2027, then kiss your money goodbye as the stock volatility plays hard with the gamma.
It's right there in the article >xAI is simultaneously trying to convince consumers to pay $300 per month to access Grok and convince enterprises to build applications with Grok’s API Someone would have to be crazy to pay for that with all fELon's meddling but that's their "plan" it seems.
Nobody can build one, least of all this clown.
Ha. Sick burn on multiple levels.
Don't forget how he said we'd be sending people to mars in 10 years... in 2011 https://www.wsj.com/video/elon-musk-ill-put-a-man-on-mars-in-10-years/CCF1FC62-BB0D-4561-938C-DF0DEFAD15BA?xcode=X304TBH6&sid1=X304TBH6
Here's Bannon taking down 'Elmo'. "Tesla is a total con". [https://xcancel.com/scidood/status/1943794861033107685#m](https://xcancel.com/scidood/status/1943794861033107685#m) Here's more. Seems like his mission to destroy Elmo is serious: [https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1943861424792776841#m](https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1943861424792776841#m)
Heartbreaking.jpeg Let them fight
Before the election, Bannon said that his mission was to prevent Elon from entering the White House. He failed on that part. But now that Elon is out and Trump hates him, it's really easy to convince Trump to destroy him.
I guess there is one smallish car maker that will be using the API.
I can't believe we didn't get those promised 90 deals. Genuinely shocked.
It’s biggest surprise since coast to coast FSD drive.
xAI is burning cash so fast and no one wants to invest in it. [https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1944169210294440155#m](https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1944169210294440155#m)
The SpaceX investors must love this. 2 billion dollars from SpaceX to xAI. And Tesla must be paying xAI too. For it to get access to Grok.
Starship is done and launching to Mars daily. Starlink is monopoly internet provider. Gotta do something with that mountain of cash they earn from mining asteroids!
That probably cuts down significantly on inference costs. Bullish!
Musk finally has a hot potato on his hands: Twitter. Its been bought by xAI and now SpaceX is grabbing it.
People will still invest, the reason Musk is doing this is because he gets to place the bid and basically assign a value to the overall equity of the company and inflate it further. He'll spend $2B of SpaceX's cash and increase his own networth like 10x that by saying xAI's equity is way more valuable 'because of Grok 4' or something. It's like SoftBank in 2021, WeWork is worth a ton of money.... why? Because we gave them more money at a price that said it was. Of course the company would go bankrupt in 2023 but Adam Neumann, much like Musk made a ton of money self dealing in the process between WeWork and his other real estate ventures.
>People will still invest Maybe. XAI's last bond was issued at like 12.5% interest, it doesn't look like they can get cash whenever they want.
SpaceX just announced a new round of capital raise at $400B valuation and put 2/3 of their remaining cash into xAI. They just did a capital raise six months ago. This is a game of musical chairs and eventually the music will stop.
People did invest. Then stopped. Look, Musk stiffed his investors when he bought out X with xAI shares. He's now using the capital he raised for his AI venture to fund his failing social media company, and the xAI investors are now involuntary owners of X (and its $12B liability from the leveraged buyout) Now Musk is basically stiffing the SpaceX investors by again using his controlling majority to put money into xAI (even if it's smaller amount than with buying out X). He can't do this with Tesla since he doesn't have the controlling interest, and also as a public company there are stricter rules on self-dealing. But Musk has nevertheless found a way to funnel Tesla cash to xAI by putting Grok in Teslas, something no customers were asking for, for sure. Neither of these decisions are good business decisions from the POV of SpaceX, Tesla or their shareholders. It's a desperate move and indeed a sign that xAI has failed to attract investors with its latest round, which is probably due to a combination of Musk falling out with Trump, his reputation tanking in general, and the fact that he basically scammed the existing xAI investors. xAI needs _cash_. As inflated as Musk's valuation of the company is, that doesn't pay the $1B in cash they're burning every month. In fact the valuation only means anything insofar as you can attract people to invest at that valuation, and clearly people aren't.
I have yet to figure out how to successfully remove a paywall from my phone. Throwing this out there for anyone to check out and post. Looks interesting. https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/tesla-leaks-elon-musk-fr0qtqqs7
Completely different groups of investors and exit plans when it comes to bonds versus VC and early private equity. Bond investors worry about return of principle while the VC crowd is just hoping to get to an acquisition or IPO to make their exit and often investing in multiple companies under the assumption many will fail but one will hit it really big. Still the sheer magnitude of how much money xAI is burning at this point is pretty staggering. This $2B from SpaceX and their recent equity + bond issuance will last them maybe a year. I think even Musk and his buddies are going to have a tough time coming up with $10B+ every year to plow into that monstrosity.
> People did invest. Then stopped. Look, Musk stiffed his investors when he bought out X with xAI shares. He's now using the capital he raised for his AI venture to fund his failing social media company, and the xAI investors are now involuntary owners of X (and its $12B liability from the leveraged buyout) Most of them are the same people. It was a bailout plain and simple and I think everyone involved knew it. There were probably some early xAI employees who got screwed over, but Musk doesn't care about them as long as the big fish from the VC funds and Gulf region investors get made whole. Bear in mind this isn't even the first time Musk has pulled this exact stunt either. He bought debt from Solar City with SpaceX funds before it imploded and had to be acquired by Tesla too. Half of how he's getting approval for these moves is the tacit assumption that if things get bad enough Tesla is going to come in an acquire xAI and they'll suffer minimal, if any, losses. There is interest in financing xAI specifically though, it's just Musk doesn't want to pay what it would cost in equity share to raise the funding currently. I wouldn't be shocked if he's still just assuming that Robotaxi and functional FSD will be live in a year anyways to solve all the cash burn problems like he has been with Tesla itself for the last 3 years. Now I'm not arguing that this is zero risk or Musk wins regardless in this instance either though. A big part of the problem is that he has inflated the value of both X and xAI to a ridiculous degree. SpaceX seems to be taking an equity stake too which doesn't just get restructured if the xAI's value crashes and SpaceX is far from an early investor in all this and specifically buying at a high valuation. Obviously Tesla itself is no longer on the upswing either and swallowing xAI would be a far bigger acquisition at its current valuation, let alone where it might be in another year. Musk himself has also lost his 'halo' and doesn't have the same kind of good will from shareholders. This is the kind of thing that might even get the index funds off their ass and raise serious concern from shareholder advising services too. It's going to be far harder to just sweep a combined X and xAI failure under the rug than it was with SolarCity if this does all end up going south and foisting those kinds of losses on Tesla shareholders get again might be something that goes far enough to get the SEC off its ass again and Trump a great opening for a dagger.
Concerning
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