Tesla's quarterly deliveries fall more sharply than analysts' estimates

> The electric automaker said it delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter, down 13.5% from 443,956 units a year ago Let’s hope the decline is terminal.

Good for at least a $50b increase in market cap

Only car companies care about car deliveries. Just wait until Tesla releases the data on second quarter deliveries of robotaxis, robots and AI!

Tesla delivered 300,000 cars to vacant parking lots.

It's pretty close to analyst consensus (depending on how you calc that). I think most people were expecting way worse. Algos were for sure.

Bad news? That's a buy signal, put your house on tesla.

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The beginning of the end for elon's position

Well the bad news wasn’t terrible news…time to buy /s 🚀🌕

actually went up that much at one point (more than the market cap of VW). now it is down from the peak but still up

Yeah, Ford EV sales are down 31% yoy

Hear hear. I salute to that.

Way worse for Tesla than the sales numbers are the things happening in the US Senat.

It’s already being “corrected” fingers crossed that it finishes in red

The sales numbers are very similar to Q1 2024. Comparing the Q-10 of these should give us some insights about the business.

Tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I'll refrain. For now.

Due to a shortage of stock. Definitely nothing like teslas problems lol.

What happened to Juniper? I thought the Cybertruck replacing redundant can bus layers with ethernet cable changed everything. Very confused about this.

Musk bought 10,000 Model Y's, Peter Thiel bought 20,000 model 3's, Larry Fink bought 11,000 model Y's, MBS bought 44,000 model 3's. Trump bought 1 model Y. No one took physical delivery (except Trump). Tesla is "storing" them on their behalf.

Troy was way lower. It’s a decently head scratching number, given that we know what China and Europe look like.

Which is probably a reason why Ford is a 50b company. You would think we would have higher expectations for a 950b conpany

Low rent Darth Sidious finding out he actually isn't the Senate.

Lol the money that is motivated to buy TSLA right now is convinced it not just maintain current P/E but actually GROW it. You can imagine a future where Tesla just sells off their operations has no functional business, it's just musk promising to make products and hedge fund managers pumping the stock over and over. They've sorta hacked the stock market. Imagine little to no expenses and a trillion dollars of investor money. Seems like all those years of institutional short selling have altered any type of expectations you'd normally require to want to buy/hold. It's just unhinged in a totally new way.

"...should give us some insights about the business." ie That the business is shrinking, not growing. But try telling that to Elon's fanboi investors.

The decline wasn't as much as I was expecting. It's a little worrying that its not more at this point :/

So why TF is it up 2.6% this is fucking crazy.

Can someone call the market and explain that 170+ P/E is reserved for growing companies, not declining ones?! Please.

> Tesla said it delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter, down 13.5% from 443,956 units a year ago. > "The market is reacting to the deliveries not being as bad as potentially thought…” Tesla getting the fanboi ‘not as shitty as expected’ bump. Imagine if all companies were given this much license to fail? (‘The market’ is an insider Ponzi scheme.)

What with the foray into politics I've been surprised to see a bunch of model Y refreshed models with paper plates driving around my town. Not to mention more Cybrtrucks than I expected to see. Weird to me, when the legacy automakers have what appear to be perfectly acceptable EV options without the downsides of Tesla quality control and a loud, fashy CEO.

-14%, biggest fake news in history…

There’s zero chance it’s only -13.5% down. Fakest news ever.

Stock is pumping today,  tho!!!!

The margins on the sales will be lower because they have been offering gear incintives to buy. Also, I have nothing to back this up, but the last week of June deliveries in China was a 50% increase Y/Y, and I find that pretty damn suspicious. 71k deliveries in the final week..... not like Musk would lie though....

And the numbers are fake as shit, as they’re all saying

Ford only has two models that haven't had a proper refresh since they launched, and they're up against new ones from GM (which are doing well apparently) and the refreshed Teslas. This time last year, the refresh Model 3 was out and a bunch of people were waiting on the inevitable Model Y refresh, with a lot of commentary that Tesla needs to refresh both cars at the same time to avoid the sales slump the Y was supposedly in at the time. To be down yoy compared to that after the refresh should be a disaster, but without going through a bunch of numbers I can't be sure. A graph of Model Y sales over at least three years would probably be interesting.

Very strange considering two quarters of double digit negative sales

Everyone is holding out for the robotaxis! And when those never appear, they’ll be waiting for the next huge revolutionary release that is always coming in a nonspecific but short-term time frame. AI! Robots! Stock pumps!

Happy to be a part of the Musk backlash. ABT, anything but tesla.

Rules for TSLA investors: 1) any bad news is already baked into the stock price. Now that the bad news is out of the way, things can only get better. Buy! 2) any good news is a total surprise. Things can only get better. Buy!

I approve of this headline

Interesting that the power storage is also down two quarters in a row.  It's always bounced but typically saw tooth up down.

Who is buying these cars? I rarely see the new models on the road.

No way the posted numbers are all real purchases... Especially the high numbers in China in June seem odd. Troy teslike normally is never that far off

It’s actually due to a stop sale because their doors can trap people inside when the battery dies.

The Mach-E has a stop sale right now.

Hey now, they built over 410,000.

And yet the first stock reaction was a sharp uptick. Insanity.

I'm sure the true numbers are way worse. Even so, my bet is on T$LA soaring in the next few days.

So a responsible company then? Unlike tesla with locking people inside while on fire. Another cybertruck in texas did. Family is sueing. Sounds like a good move for Ford. Unlike the guy trying to make it seem bad that Ford ev sales are down.

Ah yes, but have you considered the 7D Chess maneuvering that Elon is doing behind the scenes which in Tesla math means that those numbers are good?

Lot of Tesla fans still. I was in my buddy's car the other day and he started going off about how you only need to make $30 a day to pay for a Tesla using their robotaxi feature. He also regularly talks about crypto mining that can return thousands of dollars a month and crypto that you can mine just by pressing a button in an app once a day. In general, he's a sucker for scams and get-rich-quick schemes.

What’s funny is that a week ago this bad news was indeed the terrible news but now that it’s out and not “super terrible” it’s just meh. Articles saying that analysts are predicting a devastating quarter of double-digit contraction, estimates as bad as only 390,000 and here we see that the numbers are indeed that bad if not ever so slightly worse. But because the analysts were able to more or less predict it decently well people don’t panic as much and boom stock goes up. It’s such a broken and backwards method of how the stock market had ever been intended to be used/interpreted and just demonstrates how broken our general system of checks and balances is.

Registration data, which is independently tracked, will be released over the coming weeks for June in the US and Europe. China indicative data is released weekly. The only downside is that it'll include "pre-registrations". \-13.5% is likely to be about right though. Europe saw a bounce back in demand in June which will have recovered a lot of lost ground.

But the robotaxi!

Quarter to quarter they're up 14% on sales. They absolutely shit the bed last quarter so stabilization is why the stock should go to the moon.

It’s a tech company bro. Nothing else matters

It's a federally mandated recall. Let's not act like Tesla wouldn't be burned at the stake for this if it happened to them.

And the stock is up!

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My personal acknowledgment of that is simply the massive public presence Tesla has assumed this past few months. Never mind the fact that Tesla as a company is going to be using every possible method to get their cars on the road so you have one of the highest valued corporations with a CEO that controls Twitter fighting to stay marketable. Add to that the simple political aspect in America for making purchases that it’s not all too surprising that there would still be sales and plenty of momentum. These were some of the highest selling cars in the world as much as they may suck so it’s hard to simply turn off that tap in cultural significance. In the end though, these are devastating numbers for a company that is widely being acknowledged as being on the decline now with no real long-term growth plan or project to rely on. Robotaxi is a failure, cyber trucks will become our modern day DeLorean, and at some point with enough low sales numbers the stocks will contract. It’s a frustratingly slow process to see any kind of come-uppance for this kind of thing, and millions will be made over the time it takes, but what’s important is to follow the patterns, the trends in data, and not simply be at a loss because things seem to be working in spite of every other factor.

“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren’t too choppy.” Elon Musk - September 29th, 2022. He added that the purpose behind this claim was for the Cybertruck to be able to: “get from Starbase to South Padre Island” which requires crossing a short channel in Texas...

Let me look this up real quick. Edit: link to recall info for Ford evs https://www.kbb.com/car-news/ford-recalls-mach-e-suvs-that-can-trap-occupants/

Where are you seeing up 14%? Everything I saw is that sales are literally DOWN 14% so I’m really confused by that analysis

“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.” Elon Musk - Tesla press call - October 2016

Meanwhile, Tesla’s cryptocurrency (AKA TSLA stock) is still doing sorta okayish!

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Most are comparing against Q2 2024 when they delivered 443,956. That's a -13.5%. They're down -17.6% from Q2 2023. Q1 2025 delivered 336,681. Q2 2025 delivered 384,122. That's 14.1% increase. At this rate, they'll be back to 2022 total sales #s at best. They may see some Q3 bump of people trying to get the tax credits but expect Q4 to fully crater.

“Tesla posted another big drop in quarterly deliveries on Wednesday, putting it on course for its second straight annual sales decline as demand falters due to backlash over CEO Elon Musk's political stance and an aging vehicle lineup. Still, shares of the electric automaker jumped 3% in early trading as the decline proved less severe than the bleakest analyst projections.” This company is a joke.

He estimated last week around 350k

wasn't the excuse in Q1 that they weren't selling the refreshed model Y yet? I would have thought the refresh on their most popular vehicle would have pushed their sales past 2024 levels.

When that credit goes away in September, Q4 will indeed be a smoking hole in the earth

Sure. Just don’t try to wash it.

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The good ol’ “Miss and moon” in effect.

Stock is up 4.5% right now. Because somehow this is good news

They had the same excuse for last year when they launched the new Model 3.

Tesla isn't a car company though. It's a reich.

They're discounted heavily in China and they don't consume much US news (nor are the averse to Nazism so much). Margins will likely be further compressed. I'd expect China to be still carrying their overall sales.

Did you remember they are all about to cost $7500 dollars more and their competitors have caught up.

Forgot about that, but it helps support my point that Ford's delivery numbers aren't necessarily indicative of a widespread trend that would also affect Tesla. If you're worried about Ford, that new LFP platform has a ton of potential depending on which generation of LFP they licensed from CATL. I doubt they went through all that trouble for the packs they're using now.

Somone should tell the government to do a recall then. Why is Ford getting one but not Tesla?

Other than the Y how do you know if a Tesla is new? They all look the same

Or get caught in any snow Also its panels are unfinished stainless steel- these things are going to rust the fuck out in the north. Edit: Edited to correct myself

I didn't forget. Their investors probably have b/c the attention span of a fruit fly.

Wha? Aluminum does not rust, at least not in the sense you’re implying. It doesn’t matter because the panels aren’t aluminum in the first place. They’re stainless steel. Which might actually rust.

Sorry it’s stainless - my bad.

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Think the headlights are different than previous generations

“Still, shares of the electric automaker jumped 3% in early trading as the decline proved less severe than the bleakest analyst projections.” Lol

Jeez lying comes so easily to him, like drinking water. He really is a narcissist.

Darth Shitiest

Sounds like you made up a bunch of BS. An automotive company ignoring a recall from the government would result in huge fines and/or executive criminal charges. Their NHTSA safety ratings would also be pulled and be forced to do a stop sale just like Ford. Europe would also jump in if you don't believe the US government will.

Massive YoY decrease with a full quarter of a brand new model y. Tesla is about to get boned.

182 times earnings. And it’s up 10 dollars!

I feel like what might start to do them in is the service centres. People probably don't realize that most work has to be done there and that it seems like there's always a month wait to do anything. So they might ignore the QC issues for a while but if it takes a month to repair each one, first time buyers will be unlikely to purchase a second.

Only in the US where the Mach-E isn't being sold right now.  Their sales are way, way up YoY in Europe, more than erasing the slowdown in the US.

It was a little under 21k delivered in the final week in China, which isn't that crazy.

Titanic served briefly as a boat too.

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We had data for China showing insurance registrations there were only down 10.9% YoY.  In the European countries that release daily registration data, Tesla was down about 17% YoY.  So a decline of 13.5% YoY globally seems pretty much right in line with what we were seeing in Europe and China, no?

Cybertruck can serve briefly as a boat and permanently as an anchor

Ford only has two BEV models __in the US__.  They are doing great in Europe this year where they released several models using VW's MEB platform.

Indisputable but still does not say anything about why Tesla isn't getting a recall in US/Europe like Ford is.

As did the Model X driven into a pond by Angela Chao, Mitchell McConnell's sister in law...

The figures are for deliveries, which, [historically have included used cars](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537073651245191168.html). Given they just refreshed the Y one might expect quite a few of these 'deliveries' to, in fact, be old Ys, traded in by people buying new Ys, then sold on, most likely at knockdown prices to dealers, to both get these 'delivery' numbers up, and to avoid scrutiny from doomsayers pointing at their overflowing lots. So, technically, yes, sales may be up 14% q-to-q but purchases (e.g. trade-ins) may also be up; net there may not be much, if any, increase at all. And selling a new Y by taking in an old one and selling that for cheap may count as 2 deliveries, even as 2 sales, but probably the 2 together will have made them less profit than they made when they originally sold that traded-in old Y as a new car, back in the day.

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And mars!!

Gosh, I hope so cause that would make my stock go to the roof!!! /s

Mechanic here. CAN won’t go away any time soon. Its just the standard, even for Tesla.

I think you're on the right track. Since February I've been predicting 1.4m total for 2025 just as a gut feeling.

Maybe the people buying them are actual Nazis. Smart move, all the liberal types who were ever going to buy a Tesla had probably already done so, so he asked Grok who had, thus far, not been buying his cars, and Grok playfully answered Nazis. So he did some funny salutes and cornered that demographic niche perfectly. Genius! /s

I wonder how long till that becomes a liability

Imagine the increase in share price if they reach triple-digit negative!

And there's a stock bounce

Annnndddd the stock is up lol

Absolutely insane that anyone takes these numbers seriously after the Canada fraud, the vanishing $1.3B, and the consecutive declines in registrations throughout Europe. Oh, and abandoned parking lots hidden in malls and private airports all around the world with hundreds of Cybertrucks and thousands of Ys. If anything he should have fudged the numbers even higher to play into the tariff + tax credit "pull ahead" narrative from April/May so he could afford to give lower guidance next q. Landing within \~3% of analyst targets is a little too cute.

Car sales are seasonal.  It's like saying a pool noodle manufacturer has turned things around because sales are up in June vs March. It's just the seasonal lift, not a fundamental change.

I live in what we call "Reagan country", so it's entirely possible some people are "sticking it to the libs" with their purchase choice? Who knows?

Model 3/Y: Produced 397k, delivered 374k So another 23k cars added to inventory?  Didn't they increase model 3/Y inventory by 20k in Q1? I guess that just means Tesla will be that much richer from 43k robotaxies roaming the streets.

I'm still waiting for the robotaxi pricing to fallout, seems like once Tesla has priced in good news is permanent so I guess it'll be a month before we see a drop cuz other news.

I'm not saying it is. I'm saying Cult of Musk followers will claim it is enough for the stock to go to new highs. They're down now 2 years straight w/ rapidly diminishing margins, and their heavily publicized self driving release was a few YouTube clips of their biggest sycophants risking their lives to be driven around Austin while downplaying massive gaps in capability.

I see them everywhere

Agreed.

Denmark is pretty much irrelevant, just 6mil people not going to do much in grand scheme of things, would probably be better to focus on bigger markets like Germany, France, Spain and from what I've heard all those are still significantly down in sales

Likewise. These numbers make me wonder if "delivered" means to a dealership to be stored on a parking lot, as opposed to "sold".

That’s old news now. They will have a million robots a year coming out any year now. We don’t need cars at all. /s

France, UK and Germany are the biggest EV buyers by volume, and some of the biggest by market share. UK: Data not available yet, but expected to substantially increase from May. Data due in the next few days. France: -10% YOY, which is an improvement over May Germany: The slowest market to report....data due in the middle of the month. Probably has a modest increase from May.

I always wonder what Elizabeth Holmes thinks when she sees quotes like this. Elon’s fraudulent claims aren’t that different in scale from her’s (with the caveat that medical fraud is legally treated differently for good reason).

It’s amazing how much the market does not want to capitulate on this stock. It’ll be studied for decades.

Ooh, I like this. No more self driving cars. Next tesla will have robot driven cars!

lol what a horrible way to go. Part of me doesn't really feel that bad about it though. Wish he was in there with her.

Thank you for correcting me.

But the cybertruck! Oh, wait...

yeap, they will carry us on their shoulders while singing in the rain...

CT will be chosen vehicle for traveling on Mars, all good, buy more TSLA.

Apparently, if you have at least one product or service that is generating revenue, you can begin to just make shit up about every possible product in the future. That's the only difference between Elon and Elizabeth in this scenario.

Offering Autopark and ASS for free, alongside continued improvements to Autopilot AI, could significantly enhance Tesla’s cars’ appeal by aligning with customer expectations, reinforcing brand innovation, and supporting long-term autonomy goals.

Sorry, rain voids the warranty.

And yet the stock is up. I have an irrational hatred of this company and this man, and I want to see both spiral into oblivion. OBLIVION. You know exactly what I mean.

>Weird to me, when the legacy automakers have what appear to be perfectly acceptable EV options without the downsides of Tesla quality control and a loud, fashy CEO. Why would I want a car from a legacy automaker?

Literally depicted as the preferred vehicle by the leadership of Gilead in Handmaid's Tale.

It's not irrational though. This guy has already done irreparable damage to society. And this company and it's artificially boosted stock price allowed him to do that. Sooner it all collapses, better it is for all of us.

I own a Mach-e and entrapment is not remotely a concern of mine. Ford's still have a physical door release mechanism that let's you open from the inside without power. I'd say that getting into the Mach-e with a dead battery (which is the concern of this recall) is considerably easier than if I locked my keys in my Honda Odyssey. I can electrically jumper the frunk open, jump the 12v battery from any other car, and voila, I'm back into the Mach-e. Being locked out is only a concern if you have babies or disabled passengers that physically can't reach the door handle to open it from the inside themselves and you absolutely have to get them out in the next few minutes... But again, if you locked yourself out of any older car and you needed to get someone out in an emergency you'd just break a window, which you can still totally do. Teslas on the other hand... 😬

Tesla does as well, you just need to know where to look. That's why I don't understand how they don't have the same recall.

Accounting fraud. Elmo's numbers don't match registrations, worldwide - like way way off. Ponzi schemes eventually collapse. This will be the largest in history.

That's the thing, any ole schmuck getting into a cYBerCaB should not have to read a damned owners manual to figure out how to dismantle car parts just to open the rear doors after FSD runs over a group of kids at a school crosswalk and then into the back of a garbage truck and bursts into flames. The entire purpose of that Nazi fuck backing Trump in the first place was to dismantle all of the government agencies that were investigating Tesla and SpaceX and once that mission was complete he was free to bounce. Fuck that fascist piece of shit.

Deliveries do not include used cars, not sure where you got that from.

Let me guess stock is up 18%

Masterful gambit, sir!

Three years ago in this subreddit: [So it is now confirmed: $TSLA has been including used cars in its "delivery" reports each quarter for years. The numbers are not new vehicle sales. It's not even clear what they are because the definition keeps on changing, and $TSLA has never defined it.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/vcwkwq/so_it_is_now_confirmed_tsla_has_been_including/) The tweet (was still called that then) linked to in that thread has gone. However it appears to be archived [here](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537073651245191168.html); the text "[historically have included used cars](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537073651245191168.html)" in the comment you were replying to was a hyperlink linking to that page.

Anyone seriously doubt the accuracy of teslas SELF REPORTED delivery numbers? Tesla and Elon are KNOWN for lying and faking capabilities. Remember the 2016 faked FSD video that an employee ended up admitting was faked and it crashed during filming but they omitted it? The one Tesla took down from their website after the truth came out? Remember Tesla allegedly attempting to fake sales in Canada to allegedly steal government EV incentives? How would the United States federal government even validate the accuracy of Tesla sales numbers in china? Elon could easily make an agreement with Chinese officials to support his fake delivery numbers in exchange for god knows what. Obviously a conspiracy theory but given Elon and teslas track record showing they’re willing to lie to and deceive both investors and customers…. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility “Oh look the Chinese sales went up to counter the massive decline in US sales!!” How would the SEC even be able to investigate this especially if the foreign entities are complicit. MASSIVE national security issue if china could have leverage over musk for helping with this given Elons companies…

Considering last year profits already down 70%. And not this year is down from last year.

These cars will be a year old by the time they are sold. At which they will need to be discounted and they will directly compete with the latest cars off the line. No car company wants excessive buildup of inventory and they certainly do not want to massive amounts of their capital locked up in a depreciating asset.

Quality build? Service? Not a Nazi as CEO?

I remain convinced that these numbers are padded by at least 30,000 units.

Because they know how to make reliable cars?

Probably envious Musk is getting away with it but she didn't lol

He has actually done that with SpaceX more than once.

Telsa consistently beats delivery estimates that are an average taken from a market that is party made up of bag holders with knowledge of the actual number. There was a short period there after Zach quit that Vaibhav did not seem to have the email list for those friendly analysts, but they seem to have fallen back in line.

Gonna need some 4th party auditing on those China numbers.

Yes, Tesla has enough bag holders in that pool that they generally are able to get the number to be less than what Tesla is going to report. Took a few quarters for Vaibhav to get the hang of it after Zach quit.

Sorry but that is not true.

TSLA is the new CVNA.

I won’t believe Trump bought one till I see proof of payment.

It's just too bad that the CEO has ruined this company. I love my MYP and think it is one of the best cars on the road but I'll never buy another Tesla because of the CEO.

Ford Europe 25Q1 sold 13,100 EVs. Ford USA 25Q1 sold 22,500 EVs

Yeah, now check out what their Q2 numbers are, and compare that to Q2 last year. In Europe in Q2 last year they sold like 5.5k BEVs. We don't have data from all European countries for Q2 yet, but they are easily over 20k. Ford went from about 24k in the USA in Q2 2024 to 16.5k in Q2 2025. Total BEV sales in Q2 2025 across the US and Europe therefore were at least 36.5k, up at least 23.7% YoY. So to sum up Ford's BEV sales in Q2 were up over 20% across the US and Europe, even if they were down in the US.

GAINSAW!!

Grünheide is under-utilized.