TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jun 30

Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1licoqh/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jun_23/

Q2 sales announced this week? So Tesla has the refreshed Y and 3 available now along with strangely "refreshed" S and X? Tesla has started low financing rates and other sales incentives. So with those levers pulled I can see Q2 being better than Q1. HOWEVER I'd expect 2025Q2 will be lower than 2024Q2. That would put Tesla solidly on track for a YoY sales decline. Goodbye growth story. But they do have that cheaper model due sometime this week that will stir up sales... Tesla is just another car company that will have to chase "future products and services" (see: vaporware) to justify the TSLA premium. Will investors wait another 5-10 years? Have they grown tired of the "2 weeks and next year" claims? Are the retail bag holders going to get burned? In my opinion after years and years of inflated value and broken promises I am not confident TSLA will correct to a realistic value. Maybe if there are high profile taxi failures that might get the ball rolling, but it will be the same pump stock and disappointment with sales that has been the standard for the last year.

>Q2 sales announced this week? Usually on the second day of the next Q. >But they do have that cheaper model due sometime this week that will stir up sales... It will probably just cannibalize more expensive models. If the tax credit is really going away starting Q4, then Q3 might be similar to 2024Q3. Not a growth story, but at least no decline QoQ. But that is about it.

Looking forward to see the newest creative ways from tesla to cover up their sales. maybe again, as in canada, selling thousands on the last day of the month. to whom nobody knows until today.

Elon blocked Omar on Twitter for some reason. Perhaps because Omar said a few positive things about Waymo over Tesla. Or maybe Omar didn’t want to have his child. lol

The [free speech absolutist](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/15/elon-musk-hypocrite-free-speech) strikes again!

Because elon likes free speach! Wait no he only likes it when you blow sugar up his ass

[removed]

I haven’t been on Twitter since Muskrat took over, but as someone who was in TSLAQ and followed this drama for years, it’s a great sign that people like Omar are getting kicked out of the cult. Means the true believers are now few and far between, and since this whole ponzi is propped up on fairy tales and fantasies, once you run out of people who will believe them, the game is over.

Things that are 'Too Big To Fail' are propped up but at a cost, usually to investors. Investors are seen as the ones easiest to take a hit, like with GM it got propped up but shareholders lost 100% of their investment. Also when it comes to TBTF it doesn't apply to share prices but instead to an entity remaining a going concern. Share prices aren't part of TBTF. The closest thing to protecting share prices is that there are temporary freezes on the exchanges if a stock swing too much in too short of a time, but that's not related to TBTF and stocks can still meltdown over time despite such trading halts.

Second time he’s blocked Omar. First time they made up.

CEO of Ford says No to FSD. Likes Waymo better. Down 100 is now.

Institutions will bail. A cheaper Model 2 with no tax rebates makes no profit. Tesla wasted 10 years.

I’ve seen lots of reports that institutional investors have exiting $TSLA over the last few months.

A certain group of fans/investors are claiming it's ONLY because Waymo is paying Ford.

Tesla competitor, and fledgling american car company Ford, says “we dont like tesla”. More news at 11.

Exactly! Whether $1 or $1000, stock price has no bearing on the underlying business. In a liquidation event, the bondholders come first. Stockholder would be lucky to get anything

If the BBB passes, Tesla will lose money beginning in Q4.

Elon is threatening to primary every member of Congress that votes for it, so yeah, he's big mad. If he stops tweeting and makes a video, I bet we'd get a meltdown to rival the "FOOKIN PRONOUNS" guy.

He may not have any money left next year once the dominos start falling.

He’s gonna have $12 left to do all that primarying if Tesla loses the credit. Almost worth killing half the country by destroying the medical system and imprisoning the other half with the giant secret police force.

Just like Ford paid Consumer Reports. Follow the money.

Troy; >Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025: >• My estimate: 356,000 >• Analyst consensus: 385,086 >• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956 >The analyst consensus is based on Tesla's survey of 29 analysts, also known as the company-compiled consensus. It was released on 27 June. - Now I'm nervous about my revised prediction of 345k.

https://bsky.app/profile/troyteslike.bsky.social/post/3lsuaeo2c422f Just linking in case anyone wants it.

Yet as recently as last year Musk supported getting rid of the EV tax credits and said such a move would be good for Tesla.

Recent Twitter exchange - any thoughts? Farzad @farzyness Hey @elonmusk - when does Tesla expect to get to a 3:1 or more Robotaxi to Supervisor/Teleoperator ratio? Per my modeling it looks like Robotaxi is about break even at 2:1, very profitable at 3:1, and wildly profitable at 5:1 and above. Would be super helpful - thanks! Elon Musk @elonmusk As soon as we feel it is safe to do so. Probably within a month or two. We continue to improve the Tesla AI with each mile driven.

one stupid person talking to another, nothing more to it really

The implication of what Musk is saying here is that Robotaxi will be profitable within a month or two. Is it 100% safe to assume this is BS?

That 30 square miles of Austin is the most profitable chunk of taxi real estate on the planet.

Musk said it, therefore it's likely a lie or exaggeration.  He also gave a timeframe, therefore it's almost certainly a lie.

Yeah, pretty much. For it to not be BS you have to assume that 1) some rando Musk cultist on X actually knows how to do financial modeling that's at least a tiny bit grounded in reality and that 2) Elon is somehow able to tell the truth at the same time that his metaphorical lips are moving. EDIT 2: I decided to look up numbers for Waymo support staff, but couldn't find anything with reasonable sourcing. But someone could probably do a rough orders-of-magnitude estimate based on the average rate of disengagements for their fully autonomous cars.

Lol at "per my modeling".

We're in "enemy of my enemy" and territory. Maybe also "broken clock". The bill is horrible for nearly every person in America, which in this case for once includes Musk.

Still not buying a Tesla

I'm confused with "as we get more miles for data we will improve FSD" They've had millions of millions already. Yet they rushed a beta product. If last 10 years of miles hasn't helped, how would the next 5?

Profitable as a service or profitable as a stock pump?

They don’t have a functioning product. The end.

Anyone who still takes him seriously long ago self-selected themselves out of the pool of people with enough critical thinking ability to reach the conclusion you did. Level 4 is just around the corner, bro!!!

Maybe it turned out he’s infertile after all?

Maybe I missed something but did they drop pricing /mi or js this dudes model just cost go down profit go up? Also is it even a monitor if there's 5 they have to keep track of? Seems more like a potential monitor.

Well, there's literally no way to model this because we have no idea about their actual costs. Like we know what they charge per mile but we have no idea how much R&D costs go into this dog and pony show, regardless of how many contractors they pay to "monitor" it. The engineering / infrastructure (like hardware, power, cloud costs, etc) costs are the real costs, the contractor costs are a drop in the bucket.

tesla at $295 after people voted for new party in the poll musk posted

Trump calling out Musk again. Well I had puts due to robotaxi but I guess we’ll see if Musk escalates with Trump again tomorrow. Either way a downtrend for a day or two at the least.

Breaking and holding below the $307 rising channel bottom is a major bearish sell signal with huge downside potential.

pic of graph?

He's definitely crashing out at the moment, that's for sure.

https://xcancel.com/TSLAFanMtl/status/1939779793857228919#m James Cat thinks US demand is gone and estimates 330k. Meanwhile last week in China was >20k.

Did he stop posting drug tests?

The gals are fighting again. More theatrics?

I doubt it. Trump is genuinely struggling to pass a bill and Elon is not helping.

When you have a majority and always crow about how everyone kisses your ass... It has to be wearing on Elons senpai

He's lied to us every month for years but this time we can believe him

Let's see if these two morons now finally end up in a real fight or make up again in a couple of days. I have no fucking clue anymore at this point. I'd love both to torch each other, losing their wealth and power over it.

More like coke bender on anabolic steroids, while Musk is feeling the walls closing in. Some motherfuckers always trying to ice-skate up hill. True mystery why the bromance with two guys with 6 ex-wives didn't last.

Hopefully this will be the incentive Trump needs to take Musk down permanently. He's got all the authority on his side and can easily reopen the numerous federal investigations.

Your word in God's ear. Somehow trump is reluctant to break hell lose on him which is very suspicious

I was thinking he was trying to figure a number that would profit over standard fixed and variable costs excluding rnd (whatever rnd they did beyond FSD "advancements" and a different trim)

I wonder how many Semis Tesla sold in Q2?

So there is hope!

Deliveries are due to be released, need a distraction.

Announced in 2017 along with the Roadster. They have sold far more roadster's than they've ever made maybe the Semi is the same story? Just focus on selling no need to deliver.

*TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT DEPORTING MUSK, SAYS HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK

Doubt it will happen but Musk being deported and potentially barred from reentering the country would be hilarious.

Like many things that _could_ happen, this too will _not_ happen.

It is funny how smart billionaires just buy the politicians (preferably both parties) and then stay quietly behind the scenes and mostly get anything they want. Musk wanted to make himself the face of the Trump admin and DOGE specifically. Now that DOGE is unpopular, Trump has to offload all that stink on Elon and Elon might end up outside the club. Also, didn't Elon previously say that he supports removing EV subsidies? Weird, how he supported it when he believed he fully owns the Trump admin and he opposed removing EV subsidies now that it might actually happen.

Businesses HATE this one trick

Same odds as 20 million cars by 2030 and 2020 Roadster with SpaceX cold thrusters

Love that for him

Have the tezler fully self drive him to tijuana and give him the boot

TRUMP: WHO WANTS AN ELECTRIC CAR? I DON'T WANT AN ELECTRIC CAR. THERE'S ONE PROBLEM WITH IT, IT EXPLODES Load the puts gentlemen

Also remember he supported removing EV subsidies when Tesla was selling well with high margins which also meant they had Carbon Credits to sell to other manufacturers. Now that other manufacturers have competitive products Tesla is feeling it from both sides. The business is facing multiple headwinds.

Hopefully he will take a look. He might find this [Wired article](https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-citizenship-revoked-denaturalized/) *“If a noncitizen violated the terms of a nonimmigrant visa, and then adjusted to immigrant (green card) status without admitting the violation, and then naturalized without admitting the violation, that person could be denaturalized on the ground that their naturalization was ‘illegally procured'”* All Trump needs is a cooperative DA as I understand it. The case is easy to make. All the above requisites for denaturalization clearly happened.

>Musk said to oversee Tesla sales in Europe and US as Afshar exists. Sure, that will help! - >Deutsche Bank: Expect A Significant Q2 Deliveries Miss For Tesla Doh, I could've told them that before Q2 even started

MAGA folks believe Trump is smart. Trump "bought a Tesla" from Elon saying how nice they were, and now today: "I don't want an electric car".

So does that mean they'll "make up" tomorrow?

I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen but why are you so sure it won't? I can just imagine Trump asking whoever his latest fall-guy-goffer-lawyer is these days "can we have him deported?" and, if said lackey was keen to please, he could well say "I'll see what I can do" and have a go. If a court ruled Musk had committed immigration fraud, given how Maga feel about illegal immigrants, it seems to me Trump would have found the most straightforward way to discredit him in their eyes. Also he could be jailed for a while which gets him offline if his activities on X have become inconvenient. I can see why he'd do it, what's the reason he wouldn't? Or couldn't? Is he afraid people would look into Melania's immigration status as a result? I'm not sure he'd care much about that these days, she doesn't even let him hold her hand anymore, let alone anything else!

I’m old enough to remember when Trump promoted Teslas on the White House lawn.

Stock is going up from 293 low to 305

Yeah, green end of day probably. It's insane, this shit has to be manipulated

It's only manipulation when it goes down. Damn shorts!

This is his review

When are they releasing the numbers? Today after market close?

It is funny how Musk *actually* violated immigration law and still cozied up to Trump and Stephen Miller. Above the law, as usual.

If you consider how vindictive Trump is, and, what with the Epstein tweet and now threatening to mess up the midterms for him, I wonder why so many think there is little chance of Trump pursuing the denaturalization option. If you read the Washington Post's deep-dive - [Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career working illegally](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/26/elon-musk-immigration-status/) \- it's pretty clear it would be easy enough to prove he lied on the forms which makes the naturalization invalid. Trump could use this to discredit him, get him locked up and so offline for a while and then kick him out. Why *wouldn't* he?

He's definitely more in violation of immigration policy than probably at least half the people Trump is deporting. But really, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat wistful if this is the way he ends up getting taken down. He deserves to see his businesses and his fortunes fail due to his own failures.

Probably tomorrow.

CEO maybe getting deported, stock still above 300$.wtf?

I'm getting my popcorn ready 🍿 It may be a bumpy night.

(1) Bulls are defending the bottom of the rising channel @ $309. (Bulls 'last stand') (2) "TACO trade" assuming they will kiss & make up. (probably won't happen this time)

Looks like EV credit is going away. Tesler is cooked.

I think some really think musk manages to make trump fall or at least many of the republicans to stab him in the back now that trump polls are terrible. i want trump to go down as well but would prefer him to bring musk down first and let trump just be trump and he will go down in any matter as well

Trump truthed today that EVs explode… its gonna take the deepest of musks throating to get this toothpaste back in the tube.

Elon is more of a Temu billionaire.

If Trump deports Elon, he'll never make life interplanetary, and we'll all be doomed.

That flaming cybertruck at Trump Tower truly was prophetic for this year.

Seems like Elon is in a no-win situation. Either the BBB passes and Tesla is toast, or it doesn't and Trump blames Musk and comes after him with a vengeance.

It has the vibe of the Breaking Bad season that opened with the clean up from the airplane crash.

It’s passing. Reps have majority in the house too.

Wouldn't be so sure. Some reps will side with Elon as Trump polls shitty and his mental fitness is really a joke at that point. Nobody wants to ride a dead horse. When is the voting in the house?

Probably not great for xAI either given that the language preventing state level AI regulation was removed: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-senate-strikes-ai-regulation-ban-trump-megabill-2025-07-01/

It's bizarre because the bill *and* trump both poll poorly. House reps are facing political suicide voting on that turd yet they'll do it anyways.

The key is that Trump polls 97% with the MAGA base - the one that shows up for the primaries.

Does MAGA even show up to vote without Trump on the ballot? (ignoring all the "Trump 2028" BS, even if the man is alive then he'll be a vegetable)

It could easily be both. Trump is one of the most vindictive creatures on Earth.

Considering what happened in Colorado the other day, he’s not wrong.

[https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAPUbMRyFpJ/](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAPUbMRyFpJ/)

The fear is that this is going to be the Tea Party again where reps that weren't deemed crazy enough lost their primaries to an unhinged nut (who then go on to lose in the general election, but that's another issue).

It makes a bit more sense if you assume they don't really care about the deficit. I think they're literally counting on a compromise with Democrats down the line to remove stuff like the Medicaid cuts so their constituents won't get burned by it. Other than that there's a remarkable amount of cowardice when it comes to GOP legislators and the vast majority literally can't stand to deal with Trump being angry with them. When it comes to inconvenient truths or pushing back against the party you'll find principles go out the window with most politicians really and they'll readily ignore corruption or back big horrible bills if it's what the party leadership wants.

Yet Musk himself last year promoted what would become the BBB. Musk specifically supported cutting EV subsidies. Musk just comes off as insane where you can't trust what he says, like his stance on EV subsidies. Trump has a legit gripe against Musk unlike Musk against Trump, like Trump didn't just suddenly backstab Musk by introducing the EV subsidy cuts out of the blue, but instead it's Musk who is backstabbing Trump over them.

You'd think Republicans could pass things like this as separate bills. Their inability to govern even with this majority is amazing.

Absolutely, this is the exact kind of bloated grab bag of bullshit bill they wouldn't shut about if the Democrats were trying to push it through. There's this crap banning AI regulation, carve outs for Alaska to get the bill passed, that weird attempted tax on renewable installations, and perhaps my favorite example Ted Cruz basically using it finance a museum heist by moving the Shuttle Discovery out of its current location here in the DC Metro area down the Johnson Flight Center in Houston. Which will cost hundreds of millions of dollars and Cruz has only managed to stuff $90M worth of financing into the bill. There's also a ton of layoffs happening at that facility due to funding cuts he isn't apparently isn't concerned with but he literally wants to spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $200-$300M for what's effectively a tourist attraction. Of course neither Musk or Trump is complaining about that obvious waste of tax payer money. But then again that's why this thing will probably pass it's full of stupid shit that benefits someone's district or state. It's all premised on cutting Medicaid and other services that they know will never ultimately happen but are needed to get this through the reconciliation process. But when the Democrats sign off on whatever saved Medicaid bill comes down the line later this year they'll somehow be the ones to blame for 'profligate spending' once again.

Does anyone know of an automotive company that groups more than half of their models as "other" when counting sales? When Q2 numbers come out we are sure to see 3/Y sales and "other" sales... The main reason has to be shame with a side of accounting shenanigans right?

Teslike had a good post on it: https://xcancel.com/TroyTeslike/status/1938680754654871687#m Sales have been falling off a cliff on their 'high end' models for a while and somewhat obscured by the CT rollout but now even that has peaked and we're likely to see a terrible print for that catch all category.

20% margins 🗑️ CT is best selling EV truck 🗑️ So glad I don't have to hear that mindlessly repeated by every Teslabot anymore.

They still have kar years ct

So Tesla will announce Q2 deliveries soon. I wonder, if they miss analyst consensus, will $tsla stock go down or up? Elon has done a decent job of convincing his shareholders that Tesla’s core business doesn’t matter. But the falling out with Trump could continue to dampen sentiment.

It does make it real hard to discern how many of the Roadsters sold were Flying models vs Terrestrial.

He's barely not a vegetable now...

It blows my mind hearing people from bot parts of congress, some even republicans saying how terrible and bad the bill is... AND THEY VOTED "YEA"!

And what is the take rate on the SpaceX cold thrusters package?

Not accounting shenanigans, just covering up how terrible sales of each of the Model S, Model X and Cybertruck are.  Honestly though, given how little each of those models contribute to revenue and profits I don't really think it would add much if the company did give a better breakdown.  It's all immaterial.   I can't think of many other car companies that derive such a significant percentage of their revenue from a single model.  That is the bigger issue for Tesla.

I don't think TSLA has sold a single Roadster that ***didn't*** have the thruster package.

I was being a bit tongue in check when I mentioned shenanigans. But they definitely have an issue that 90-95% of their automotive revenue comes from the 3/Y which were recently refreshed. So it's safe to assume it's 2-4 years before they're all new or simply refreshed again. That's playing things conservative with many newer and competitive EVs coming out every quarter.

*TESLA 2Q DELIVERIES 384,122, EST. 389,407 *TESLA SHARES JUMP 5% PREMARKET AFTER 2Q DELIVERIES *TESLA 2Q PRODUCTION 410,244 VEHICLES, EST. 400,083 *TESLA 2Q MODEL 3/Y DELIVERIES 373,728, EST. 377,295 *TESLA 2Q OTHER MODELS DELIVERIES 10,394, EST. 14,644

They sell 2 types of low margin cars lol model s/x and cyber truck combined for 10k sales lol

Rare big miss from Teslike on the estimate this time around.

So they did worse than already bleak estimates and stock jumped 5%? Just tesla things.

100% sure they tampered with the numbers

They include used vehicles in these figures as I understand it. Given they refreshed their global best-seller, the Model Y, in Q2, I'd imagine there's a one-off boost from old Y's being traded in when a new Y is sold, with the old Y's being pushed out, perhaps to dealers, making many of the new Y sales count as two deliveries.

James cat and Troy both missed by a lot. And the miss is mostly on US numbers, so we’re talking a double digits %. As I understand it they also have very different methods. The likelihood of shenanigans here is not 0.

Troy was under 360k.

Better than the lowest estimate is qualifying achievement.

I’ve said this for years:  until analysts punish Tesla for the vagueness of their reporting, Tesla will not change. In addition to not breaking out model sales. Tesla also does not report sales for regions.

OK, so figures better than some were expecting caused a jump up from c. 300 to c. 315 when the markets opened (and in pre market for a few minutes before), but then it dropped back to 307, 308 for a while, and every minute or so the big price figure you see when you put tsla into Google would switch to c. 300 for a few seconds. Not long enough to be immortalised in the graph though. Happened quite a few times and seems to have stopped now. I am guessing this is what one might expect to see if a very large holding was being sold, perhaps in several still quite large chunks. Perhaps it happens all the time, but in case it does mean something I thought I'd mention it here.

Here's a thought: if the delivery figures are partly up because they took in a lot of traded-in Ys when they refreshed, and moved them on for whatever they could get for them, insiders will have known that the figures would likely cause the price to jump up, but they'll also know the the puffed-up delivery figures won't translate into increases in earnings, as the two deliveries in the figures from taking in an old Y, selling to a dealer, and selling a new Y, probably make them less money in total than when they originally sold the now being traded-in Y as a new car n year(s) ago. The figures are legal, in that they are open\* about the fact they include used car deliveries, so there is no fraud, but the insiders, many with large TSLA holdings, also know the earnings will disappoint and, what with everything else, they could well believe this to be their last chance to shove a load of TSLA out there and get 300-a-share for it, which might explain what I saw for the first 10 minutes or so of trading this morning. Equally the sales that kept, briefly, pushing the price down to 300, could have been from anyone with a large holding deciding this is a good time to sell, or it might all have just been Google being glitchy for all I know! \* EDIT: Further research suggests to me that it is not so much that they are open about it but rather that it has been theorised that they do and they have neither denied it, nor have they ever defined what a delivery is. IANAL, my stating the figures are 'legal' and that there is 'no fraud' should not be construed as legal advice! If you sell cars for a living please consult a real lawyer before deciding how to describe any delivery figures you publish. Alternatively just do what I expect Elon does and just make it all up as you go along, shooting from the hip and hoping to get away with it all!

Do you have a clear definition of the delivery number? I found nothing yet. I will do a manual count of the last few years later today.

27 Tesla stores in Canada and they are selling 1K cars a quarter here. A recipe for success.

Three-year-old post from r/RealTesla: [So it is now confirmed: $TSLA has been including used cars in its "delivery" reports each quarter for years. The numbers are not new vehicle sales. It's not even clear what they are because the definition keeps on changing, and $TSLA has never defined it.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/vcwkwq/so_it_is_now_confirmed_tsla_has_been_including/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) That post links to a tweet (Xcretion?) from an account now free-speech-absolutistically-suspended, but, from the comments it produced, and the over 500 upvotes it got, I imagine whatever was there seemed very credible to the denizens of this subreddit at that time. EDIT: Reading through the comments in that thread I've found what I think is an archived copy of the tweet (it would still have been called a tweet 3 years ago!) from the now free-speech-absolutistically-suspended account (abolutistically is a real word, I checked!)... [here](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537073651245191168.html).

Remember when Elon said Tesla sales would grow 50% every year through 2030?

It was 463k in april. Analysts lowered numbers with time and now the surprise isn't as big "its only 5k less than est"

It's pumping right now, so my guess it'll go down to where it was this morning... Before the bad news.

So the "deal" with Vietnam has zero tariffs paid by Vietnamese buyers, and 20% by US buyers... *Art of the deal.*

Well it may not be growing 50% YoY (that Elon promised a few years ago would happen through 2030) but I guess-13% YoY is good enough. At least that’s what the fanboys on Twitter are saying. lol

I’m getting tired of all this winning.

I think the feeling is the deliveries numbers are better than feared. Except that fear never had an impact on the stock. Which seems to the continual TSLA trend. Promise high delivery numbers. Get the stock to go up. During the quarter bring the numbers down slowly, which should but never impacts the stock. And than beat the severely decreased estimated numbers to make the stock go up again.

I think it still missed the analysis consensus by 5k approximately. And I’m told down 13% YoY is the worst decline ever for Tesla. But as long as it’s higher than Troy Teslike’s prediction the fanboys will celebrate. To them just about everything is bullish.

Yeah it missed by 5k for the consensus but it was 20k better than the worst prediction. So stock goes up...

Remember when Redditors parroted it over and over.. S curves and all that..

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Naw we live in a TruthSocial world and half the reason the stock is up today is because Trump hasn't threatened to throw Musk into Mt. Doom.

I remember the constant reiteration they'd sell 20M. And now auto sales are wholly deemphasized in favor of taxis and robots.

I've seen credible suggestions earnings will be negative by 2025Q4, and I see nothing, likely to turn that around, on the horizon. I'm thinking they'll be kicked out of S and P at some point next year, and that will cause an avalanche-like crash, as funds obliged to hold TSLA, while it remains in the index, will then be able to sell it, quite likely be glad to do so, and there simply won't be enough cult members to buy it all up, even if they think it is a dip and an opportunity. Can we work out when this will happen, and guess how low it might go? There will be some longterm put options that will turn out to have been well worth their price today, but which they are depends on the answers to these two questions. Any thoughts?

2023 Volume: 1.8M 2024 Volume: 1.78M 2025 Volume: ~1.6M est What part of the S curve is this? As a refresher, the stock this week has been quite a bit higher than at any point through 2023, and in 2023 we didn't have data proving the CT was a giant flop. In a world where Hertz stock goes up on the announcement of bankruptcy, and a single crypto coin can be "valued" at 6 figures... I guess this actually makes sense.

Time to call Frodo and Sam back to active duty.

Yeah Elon has done a good job of convincing investors that Tesla’s core business doesn’t actually matter.

the latest ones available - 17th december 2027. very expensive, but the truth is that this trash stock can in fact stay at irrational levels throughout 2026.

That’s three cars per-store per-week per-haps

So I've sent 2 mods a message 2 different days for help with a post. Could a mod please get back with me

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/s/TvlBkrVUTY So, Tesla is using lidar on cars to generate HD maps of the service area?

Mazda Annual sales: 1.3 million Market Cap: $4ish Billion on a good day.

Dumb Question: In April 2024, the WSJ reported that the $25k TSLA (Model 2) was cancelled...and Technoking promptly decreed: "Reuters is lying (again)." And the Q1 shareholder deck stated: *"Plans for* ***new vehicles****,* ***including more affordable models****, remain on track for start of production in the* ***first half of 2025.****"* I've never landed a rocket or gifted a horse as hush money, but if I count on all my fingers and toes, I'm pretty sure we just past that "first half" mark. So...umm...when is the big reveal? Because the Model 2 is a real thing, right? ...or is it just "Roadster Real"?

This is the ideal ~~male body~~ trillion dollar company. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like

No no they're just using LIDAR data to overfit their NNs to exactly their service area and not calling it map. Therefore it's somehow scalable and better or something. Tesla totally won't need to do the same thing for every area if they want to maintain a similar level of performance. This isn't yet another moving of the goalposts w.r.t FSD and Robotaxi. It's not all like when they said they could train a functional system simply by running software on the vehicle in 'shadow mode'. It certainly isn't like when they said that simulation data was useless and all that mattered was real world data. It isn't at all like when Musk successively claimed that Tesla's vehicles had all the sensors and computing power they needed to drive themselves for the last decade or so. It's definitely not like that demo that did at one of their events where their network was magically 'predicting' features it couldn't possibly see from the video feeds it had because they did exactly the same kind of overfitting and internalizing HD maps into their perception networks. It clearly isn't some attempt to improve performance by crudely trying to duplicate what competing robotaxi companies are doing and pretending otherwise at all, that's for sure.

They won’t be kicked out of s&p as long as they are so overvalued

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Everything I've read suggests that there are inclusion criteria, all of which must be maintained to stay in the index. One of these is that the sum of its earnings in the previous four quarters must be positive. If they fail to do that, whatever their market capitalisation, they get delisted, as I understand it. If anyone knows different, or anything about the likely timescales for all this, please, share it here.

[Concerning ](https://i.redd.it/ujd0lpqb9laf1.jpeg)

You see the very top-right of this S, where the line goes down a bit, just before it ends? I think it's that part.

I dunno. A stripped out Model Y is still a Model Y. This was supposed to be an entirely new Model 2.

What can you strip out from a Model Y?  They're pretty shit to begin with.

I mean, who hasn't seen a Tesla at this point?

it will be just a software limited battery/performance model that helps them bleed money for just saying "we have a cheap model!"

It's to use old inventory (unsold CT and Ys) as a business write off. got to keep them grifting.

Goldman Sachs raises Tesla price target to $315 on 'delivery beat'. The 'delivery beat' was more than 10% below *original consensus estimate for Q2 three months ago* and was a *14% YoY decline from 24Q2*. As fundamentals deteriorate, stock and price targets continue to rise.

They can be seen on historical movies from 1930s till mid 1940s. Then there was unexplainable gap in public appearances till late 2000s.

"We predicted earnings would be awful and they were. Bullish!"

Can someone update me when Elon starts having his meltdown over the bill passing? Edit: Who am I kidding, it'll be started already because he never stops tweeting.

The baby?

Well now that they passed that horrible bill, Tesla is about to look like a elderly medicaid recipient in a red state.

I'm looking forward to being greatly amused at the Musk Party. A Musk third party would generate so much comedy gold.

It has all the makings of a clown party in the pockets of big tech except that's literally the party we have now.

Tesler is cooked. This is going to be a big blow to Tesla, I have no idea how they are going to sell cars. It’s probably going to be a good time to buy an EV. Manufacturers might want to clear inventory before the credit ends.

So end of September the subsidies end for Tesla in the US? Meaning latest from Oktober on they lose money.

I did see unironic talk about how this is going to be great news for Tesla Q3.

He'll have to give it a name to make sure everyone knows it's not like the old parties. ["New Party"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Party_(UK)) has a fitting ring to it...

I wonder if they will adopt Elon's special not-a-Sieg-Heil salute.

So, is Leon going to keep his word and now spend billions of dollars to primary all 218 republicans house members and 50 republican senators who supported BBB?

“My mentality is that of a samurai. I would rather commit seppuku than fail.”

Thought I would check out Elons Twitter feed on Xcancel. Couple of notable items… That dude retweets a cringey amount of praise from his regulars. And Tesla sold 7,000+ Model Y’s in Turkey in June. Compared with say 3,000 total sales of all models in April. Must be a big ship from China rolled in.

>Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits. >Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits. >Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the incentive to buy credits. >As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though the company will continue to earn credits in Europe and China. - In addition to that, the $7,500 subsidy is gone by October 1st. Should help with Q3 numbers, but hurt afterwards. - I am not entirely certain about the ZEV information. ZEV is a state-run initiative and law, can the federal government just zero it out?

It could realistically pull ahead some demand as people pile in to claim the tax credit before it's gone but then Q4 will look like absolute dog shit probably which will hit them harder because it's always been by far their best quarter.

Doesn't europe also have this credit scheme? Also wonder if Stellantis their lawyers were smart enough to have a clause to get out of this contract with TEsla lol.

Europe and China, Tesla is collecting these ZEV credits everywhere.

It’s really hilarious how far Tesla stans have fallen. They used to say that Tesla will soon overtake Toyota in terms of car sales. And now they are high fiving each other for only a 13% decline and not a 16% one. LOL

Their Q2 numbers are completely fraudulent.

My understanding is the OBBB didn't have much to do with ZEV credits and that was a separate bill previously signed which removed the waivers CARB previously had from the EPA to actually regulate emissions. Essentially the Federal Government has the sole authority to regulate emissions in the first place but had previously allowed California to set its own stricter standards via those waivers. Now that Trump has revoked the waivers they can't do that anymore.

They removed the California waivers, but the penalties were still there and the penalties were what was making the credits valuable. There will be a lawsuit and the SCOTUS will probably declare that they were allowed to do this because SCOTUS is controlled by the Republicans. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-gop-set-to-revoke-californias-car-emissions-standards-nuclear-option/

So my understanding is that these measures fundamentally challenge or remove California's very ability to set vehicle emissions standards. Essentially they can't assess penalties anymore because they can't set standards to begin with under this new regime. They could still technically offer incentives to manufacturers to encourage them to voluntarily produce lower emission vehicles but that's about it. Again as you pointed out there's a ton of debate over the legality of the move and a bunch of procedural complaints about how the bill was passed too but I would agree that the Supreme Court will probably uphold it and suggest that congress amend the CRA if they don't like the outcome.

Honestly, this thread must be read to be believed. The users "REM" and "HaulingAss" are both a mix of delusion, bullying, and fanaticism. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/with-sales-down-is-the-ct-going-to-become-a-delorean.44763/page-4

Apparently the 'delivery beat' was due to all kinds of shenanigans, such as: **ROW Channel Stuffing:** [https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1940861830160957727#m](https://xcancel.com/BradMunchen/status/1940861830160957727#m) **Used Car Dumping:** [https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1lqzhnt/comment/n172abk/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1lqzhnt/comment/n172abk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Lots of shady stuff going on, but Troy, Watuzzi, and other modelers with track records were all off by 10% or more.

I remember when the CT was going to outsell the ICE F150. They were proclaiming victory after a power point presentation. They said it would be the perfect trade vehicle and replace other fleets.

Yeah, lower it from 460 to 390 and still off but call it "beat"

So it is now after midnight eastern time....I assume Elon has started his new party given the BBB passed???!!!???

Yea they miraculously sold 7000 Tesla's in Turkey last month...hmmm sure. Something smells...Enron vibes all over their financials

The numbers imply US 3/Y deliveries fell by around 5k/3.5% YoY. Doesn’t seem right.

On this 4th of July, let’s not forget the greatest American fireworks manufacturer of all: SpaceX!

Okay the Asia numbers are super fishy. I'd bet a lot of money on the fact that 30.000-40.000 units in this delivery report are not real deliveries

You think that every company in the S&P 500 has a positive net income on a TTM basis? Intel's TTM EPS is -$4.48, but they are still in the S&P 500. Moderna's TTM EPS is -$8.73, but they are still in the S&P 500. Where exactly are you reading this from?

Thanks for this. I'll take it you are aware that positive TTM earning are a requisite for inclusion in the index. I'd found several loosely worded statements like that below, but hadn't found a canonical source. I dug a little deeper and found this: ["A company that substantially violates one or more of the eligibility criteria for the S&P Composite 1500 may be deleted from the respective component index at the Index Committee’s discretion."](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf) I'm guessing what you are pointing out is happening in practice is the result of this Index Committee discretionary aspect, which wasn't mentioned in the looser descriptions I'd previously read. If the committee are playing straight, and if it seems clear Tesla is unlikely to return to profitability any time soon, I still think they'd kick them out. However, they might believe the profits-are-just-around-the-corner lines with respect to Robotaxi, Optimus, or whatever. They might be reluctant to remove a company after only being in the index for six years. I'm guessing that Musk, being widely disliked, and having so often been obviously over-confidant, will fail to influence these committee members. I am imagining that, given the status the S&P has, the committee members are not likely to be corruptible, either. I'm still thinking they'll get kicked out next year, What do you think?

They are going to sell 100k vehicles on September 30th

[Traded in old model Ys, presumably sold at auction to dealers, perhaps included too?](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/s/2jLND6sVnE)

Yes, a company has to be profitable to be included initially. It would take a long period of unprofitability to get kicked out - there is 0% chance Tesla gets removed at any point next year. Maybe at the back end of 2027 if they are showing significant losses every quarter in 2026 and the first half of 2027, but realistically the stock would have to be in the tank before the committee would take that step.

Made in America with American tax dollars/venture capital at an American company town and exploding on American soul (or international water). Proud!

I’m not taking that bet.

sometimes debris fall on our allies' soil over in Europe but that's OK, it's part of the art of the deal.

Perhaps he uses the same 'day one' definition Trump applies to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Thanks for this. I trust you are sincere but can I ask on what basis you assert this? My current assumption is that, if TTM earnings are negative, the policy of the Index Committee is to remove, unless a convincing case is made that the negative earnings are temporary. Do you think this assumption is incorrect? If so what do you believe their policy is? If I am right, don't you think there is a non-zero chance Tesla will be removed next year?

Tesla's products burn less brightly, but in far greater numbers.

Allies in Europe? You mean Russia?

Did you see my conversation with u/TannedSam above? What do you think? If, and I appreciate it's an if, earnings go negative in Q4, and stay negative 2006Q1, Q2, etc., do you think S&P might eject them? I think there will, at some point, be an avalanche correction, but what probability, for each possible date, is the tricky thing to get a handle on.

Only half the day remains for Elon to deliver on his promised "New Party"...

{ 0 0 } +===========oOO===(_)===OOo=========+ |_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| |__|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|__| |_____| Wot no new party? |_____| |__|__| |__|__| |_____| [Everyone on planet |_____| |__|__| Earth in state of |__|__| |_____| shock at idea Elon |_____| |__|__| Musk said something |__|__| |_____| was going to happen |_____| |__|__| but then it did not |__|__| |_____| happen. Nobody on |_____| |__|__| Mars surprised at |__|__| |_____| all, however.] |_____| |__|__|_______________________|__|__| |_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____| +===================================+

The numbers will drop off heavily for July and August.

Rough estimates as a starting point for those that may be wondering: Elimination of U.S. Carbon Credits (beginning now, Q3): \~$150-200 million reduction in quarterly earnings (they still get carbon credits for China & Europe) Elimination of $7500 EV Tax Credit (beginning Q4): \~$500 million reduction in quarterly earnings (this could be smaller or larger depending on price elasticity and how much they decide to eat). As a reference, Tesla earned $409 million in Q1 this year.

Source?

Tesla Robotaxi has its first official crash. [https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-robotaxi-involved-1st-official-accident-tesla-employee-had-take-over-drive-robotaxi](https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-robotaxi-involved-1st-official-accident-tesla-employee-had-take-over-drive-robotaxi)

Google tells me the elasticity is around 0.34..assuming $7,500 represents 15% of the price, I'd expect a 5% drop in demand. So maybe 19k lost sales per quarter, or over $800m lost revenue. I assume TSLA will adjust their price to mitigate this and press down their margins even more. On the Carbon Credits, my belief is TSLA has lots of these "banked"...so I wouldn't look for a huge drop in those until next year.

> (they still get carbon credits for China & Europe) Someone still has to buy those credits, right? But as the other automakers shift more and more to EVs, the demand for credits goes down... And as the number of Chinese pure EV companies increase, ICE car makers can choose to buy their credits instead of Tesla's, right?

Tesla is losing $500 on selling BEVs each. Discounts will further erode profits, on top of missing out of regularity credits. With BEV price increasing, people may buy ICE instead, further helping legacy companies. I think tesla will announce stripped down Y/3 for Q3, without lights, cloth seats, no glass roof etc to offset the price drop. People will assume the cars have gotten cheaper. This will help Q4 sales. But after that they can wait until next democrat or midterms

Difference or registrations between end and beginning of quarters is ridiculous: https://eu-evs.com/brands/TESLA/ALL\_DAILY/Models-Daily/Year/2025. Probably most of sales at end of quarter were registered by dealerships themselves, and now they are selling it as "secondhand new".

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After doing a Twitter poll, Elon now says he’s going to start the America Party. I guess we’ll see what happens.

They are cutting funds already in sept. But market may jitter if trump questions his residency. he did that with obama too. He wouldnt elon loose, as he has a lot of money. Likely trump will take action as he let him off last time, but elon came back. Not many fans elon has in republican party - had a lot of fights there.

You know how Mengele got victims for his experiments from Auschwitz? [This girl has a theory for Neurolink](https://www.tiktok.com/@unoriginal_sins/video/7522749060097314078?_r=1&_t=ZT-8xlfoHvkcxh).

Just another reminder that a year ago TSLA shareholders voted to both reincorporate the company in Texas and give Musk far more control despite his dwindling ownership stake and also to reauthorize his struck down compensation package. All under the guise of keeping his interest. Meanwhile the candidate he helped elected and served under the administration of just knee capped all investment in renewable energy projects, state level ZEV mandates, and Federal subsidies for BEVs. But hey the whole 'transition the world to renewable energy' thing was just a side hustle anyways with the real goal being autonomy. Robotaxi has been a smashing success with only one accident that we know of so far in a few days of deployment and multiple videos of erratic behavior and interventions. I'm sure these same shareholders will have a new compensation package proposal put before them before the EOY to fund Musk's political ambitions too. It'll be justified as 'correcting the failures of Delaware's court system to recognize the will of our shareholders' and the need to keep Musk involved (at high shareholder cost!) going forward given his multiple other projects. Worst of all? It'll probably pass too.

If he does it, it's the best thing he ever did. Cause he is correct, the two major parties in the US are basically just different sides of the same coin. It's the choice between McDonalds and Burger King. Different advertising, similar products, same result.

Now that the party allegedly is up and running, what will it mean for US politics? How will a three party system work over there?

A theory is that they rush out cars close to quarter end to prop up the cash balance. They get the money and then pay the bills in the beginning of the next quarter.

It can't, unless he exclusively takes votes from the Republicans, in which case the Dems will recieve a majority of the popular vote, and Reps and Musk coming distant 2nd and 3rd won't impact their legitimacy.

How would his party be different though?

Except Elon is going to make "McBurger"

I agree the two major parties are both awful. However, forgive my skepticism that the chainsaw weilding idiot who created the Cybertruck, called Medicare a ponzi scheme and said COVID was like the flu will have a viable alternative. The parties are so broken and corrupt that being right about them being terrible isn't really a major insight.

Both have their issues, but the product of the last 6 months are nowhere near the same. They are completely different and it’s not even remotely close. Compare both BBB bills.

[Elon fixed Grok.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5o6k7jvowuyaquloafzn3cfw/bafkreicdbncveppjapphc4ci6fkwbn2ctmjaixy4zisyb4mo6v65kfiztq@jpeg)

[Trump could, I would have thought, get Musk's citizenship revoked quite easily.](https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-citizenship-revoked-denaturalized/)

no tweets for 8 hours, another ketamine hangover

\[UPDATED\] Estimates for those that may be wondering: Elimination of U.S. Carbon Credits (beginning now, Q3): \~**$250-450 million** reduction in quarterly earnings (they still get carbon credits for China & Europe). *Latest information is that 40-75% of the total is U.S. credits. They may already have 'banked' credits from sellers, so it may take a few quarters for the total effect to be seen in earnings.* Elimination of $7500 EV Tax Credit (beginning Q4): \~**$750 million** reduction in quarterly earnings (this could be smaller or larger depending on price elasticity and how much they decide to eat. The max amount 150k x $7500 x 85% = $0.956B/quarter). *The effect of this should immediately be reflected in 25Q4 earnings.* As a reference, Tesla earned $409 million in Q1 this year, and $7.1B in 2024. Summary: The projected reduction in earnings would have decreased 2024 earnings by approximately 50%. With slowing sales in 2025 in 2026 projected, without a dramatic reduction in costs (layoffs, store closings, factory shutdowns), the expected reduction in earnings for the 12 months beginning in 25Q4 is at least 50%. It's difficult to see how their 12-month EPS could be more than $1.

Thanks for this. So are you suggesting earnings could go negative 2025Q3, will probably go negative 2025Q4? When do you think trailing twelve months (TTM) might go negative? Once that happens the S&P Index Committee can eject them, which would really shake things up!

25Q3 will be boosted by the 'pull-forward' as buyers rush to take advantage of the $7500 credit before it disappears. 25Q4 will be bad, possibly negative. Q4 is generally their strongest quarter, but it won't be this year.

Another day, another SpaceX sexual harassment suit. https://futurism.com/spacex-sued-again-sexual-harassment

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Q4 be bad as those that were considering buying will buy in Q3. Expect a really strong quarter. I wonder if wallstreet will see the writing on the wall and lower exposure than wait until it's actually negative EPS.

Tesla average U.S. sales per quarter \~150k units. 85% of sales quality for tax credit. At one end, if Tesla doesn't lower the price, they eat the entire $7500 per car and sell the same number of units. If they lower the prices, they sell fewer cars.

Some people think the fact the Q3 will be the last quarter you’ll have the $7500 tax credit could increase demand for Tesla. And it might. But at most it will pull demand forward leading to a big drop off in Q4.

Tesla went up from $245 (despite robotaxi event) to 480 because trump won and was going to help tesla. Well, it's now going against tesla. At $295 overnight. Some funds may bail on tesla as they tend to cozy up with trump. He can give them benefits or leverage, they cannot get that from elon.

One fund that was going to purchase tesla shares already cancelled plan.

I've seen enough - **I'm selling this pig tomorrow.**

> Tesla went up from $245 (despite robotaxi event) to 480 because trump won and was going to help tesla. Which was an amazing narrative, because history shows Trump screws over literally everyone and everything in the long term.

Elon would be uniquely sensitive to the scrutiny of a hostile government. SpaceX doesn't exist without the ok of the government, and they could kill Tesla self drive ambitions with new legislation around self driving cars. Picking a fight with the government when you are in such a precarious position seems not so smart.