GLJ Research Predicts Brutal Crash of Over 90% in Tesla Stock

At least 1 financial analyst gets it right, sub $20 target.

I have wanted to buy shorts five times in the past and five times I would have lost money if I had. Is this the right time? It feels right but so did the others

Still, it's amazing to me how little reporting is being done of the lawsuits over FSD and Autopilot accidents and deaths, and how Tesla is bullying and silencing them.

Personal opinion here: anything retail investors do outside of owning a US large cap ETF is inefficient and driven by other reasons. I short Tesla because I think Musk is a terrible person and even worse business leader. Sure I want to make money with my short position but entered it fully knowing tsla could go to $1,000 due to market irrationality. If you’re going to short you need to be ready to go to zero and have other motivations. Source: put $70k into TSLZ and have passed 3 levels of the CFA exam.

Those two points are connected. Threat of lawsuits is how billionaires manipulate and intimidate media.

Okay, let's asume GLJ is right - which option would you use to make money from Tesla stock finally crashing?

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These guys are idiots the fraud will keep going no matter what they think.

with shorting you can lose way more than 100%

You are correct in some instances but it depends on the strategy. If you’re selling calls to short for example you can be on the hook for a lot of $$ but I just buy the inverse ETN. I know ChatGPT isn’t always right but I queried as a sanity check: Yes, you can lose more than 100% of your investment if you're using margin, but not if you're just buying the ETN outright with cash.

All I'm going to say is, don't short it. $TSLA should already be trading there, but Wall Street isn't finished collecting retail investors' money. But when that time comes, look out below.

Or how moderate accidents trap Tesla passengers until they find the manual emergency door releases. And, there are NO EMERGENCY RELEASES for the rear passenger doors in MOST Teslas...

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Buy calls, glj ain’t right

Buy the rumors sell the news. Have numbers rotted your brain and now there's little room for logic? Tesla is obviously going places. No doubt some of you negative on TSLA have UNH..

But full self driving is just 2 weeks away!?

Gordon will end up the #1 predictor of Tesla’s fall.

It’s here! House of cards is tumbling.

PUTS

Oh man I was down like 60% at one point but that’s after making over 100% of my base over the course of several years across positions in GME, TQQQ, and TSLZ. Entry points currently were like 3.30 (I went in after it jumped after last earnings) and 1.50 and I think my average is like 2.20. The best thing to do is to not check daily and remind myself that the reasons I went into the position remain valid whether the market agrees with me or not.

If the Republicans pass a budget bill stripping EV and solar subsidies that would be the time. Tesla is no further towards an autonomous cab service than an Uber driver picking you up in a Tesla but that alone doesn’t appear to sway the market.

He’s still way too high.

The stock is crazy. It keeps going up every time new problems come up. Don’t risk your money shorting it yet

Dude FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and Mars are all solved problems, we’re just waiting waiting for regulators to decide on the legality of me getting blown by a technically underaged Optimus while taking a full self driving robospace taxi to Mars.

It's a pity Hindenburg Research is not still around, I would imagine they would be placing bets against TSLA right about now.

TSLQ

There's also not much reporting about tesla being unable to drive itself in the rain. I'm guessing it's also unsafe at night.

i think this stock proves the efficient market hypothesis might be wrong. hype driving growth over fundamentals....

When it all crashes everyone will say “why didn’t anyone know?”

Btw who pays the cfo 150 million ?! Uh frauds who need them to sign off on bs accounting

Or they just buy the media. Twitter, New York Post, Etc…

TSLS - no leverage so you can hold long term

Don‘t do this to yourself. The decay is crazy.

How does the decay work?

Don’t forget odogate. That’s every Tesla

Isn't TSLZ aiming at 2x leveraged inverse of _daily_ TSLA price changes? And as it is rebalanced daily, holding long term, given how volatile TSLA has traditionally been, is likely not going to return even if in time TSLA falls.

…And that is how I learned that the market can stay irrational longer than I could stay solvent.

I think you are right there, those changes and a weak market will evaporate profits and may force them to spin off the solar business. Both of which may shake retail out of its complacency.

I’ve held and sold TSLZ a few times, but I am wondering if TSLQ is any better. The dividend is over 7%, versus about 3% for TSLZ. Management fees are nearly the same. Any opinions?

Hold only for very short periods, like 1-10 days, after a nonsensical TSLA run up.

Agreed. At 99% drop, it would still have a higher market cap than Nissan, and more than double Mazda, which makes no sense as both have greater sales, stronger brand, and better future prospects than Tesla.

Wouldn’t touch TSLA honestly…it’s too irrational.

Mars is solved? Does that have anything to do with Tesla. Also you do know that space x doesn’t have any rocket capable of going to mars right. Not even the rocket that’s blown up 10 times in a row now is capable of it.

2 months ago when TSLA was at 230 i bought TSLQ at 32 if TSLA goes to 230 now, TSLQ will probably be at 22-25 tops

Doubt. It's a meme stock

What causes the decay?

I believe you are responding to sarcasm

That sounds good. Unfortunately, after every nonsensical TSLA run up comes the next run up. I bought TSLQ in April just before the Q1. The results were more horrific than expected and since then the stock is up by much more than 30 %.

you really couldn't detect the sarcasm there?

The best time to start a position is now if you think it's going to pass. market will react immediately. Trump is pushing Senate to decide by the 4th.

Yep, I just hope I timed it decently but if I’m wrong what you said will hold. Timing is the most important aspect of shorting… look at the big short or even the book “the greatest trade ever”. You can have the right idea but time it wrong and you lose everything. I’ve no idea whether the house of cards will fall tomorrow or a year from now, so I feel like an ETN is a better choice than a put with an expiration date but you’re right, any of these things drops 90% if held for long enough…

Tesla has had 9 years to get its Camera first FSD/Robotaxis approach right, but even in a supervised and controlled environment it made too many errors: [https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/tesla-robotaxi-launch-was-a-scam-elon-musk](https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/tesla-robotaxi-launch-was-a-scam-elon-musk)

Amazing this person found this sub in the first place 🤣

Yes, TSLA fans are being irrational. They believe the robotaxi FSD elon-genius hype fully, ignoring the disastrous sales trends. I wouldn’t risk a lot of money on inverse TSLA funds, even though I think TSLA will deflate this year or next.

>Nonetheless, the robotaxi debut marks a pivotal milestone in Tesla’s transition from EV manufacturing to full-scale AI-driven mobility solutions. No it doesn't.

By all rights wednesday's Q2 report should result in a brutal stock slide.

Yeah, Tesla's only electronic handles are for all intents and purposes a solution searching for a problem

I played around with both, I honestly didn't see much price difference myself in cash out, Im heavy in tslz right now, been a good week, bought in too early, figured the robotaxi launch would be bad (it was) it barely wiped out half of the speculation it earned though going to continue holding the market seems to be coming around to some logic the past few days. I only played options on z though and the liquidity there is decent around strike/within reasonable possibility, it's not gonna sell/move every hour but around strike on a you'll always have a tight spread with a fair number of buyers and sellers. Matter of fact I have a few $2 calls, might buy more if they are still rock bottom price tomorrow on open for next week, was a little too cold for this week (bought before robotaxi rolled out, figured it was going to crash hard, barely cleared the weekend hype after it failed 😂) ETA: by week I mean investing week ik it's Monday.

Enron would like a word. Seriously though tesla still has massive players that actually have to play by logic The funds don't lose, if they do everyone gets drug into court to talk about it and make sure it doesn't happen again (re GME)

I always thought that was more about price sustainability than an actual hypothesis on how the market works. Without solid fundamentals the hype will eventually fade While we dislike Tesla, there has been solid sales growth for a while to call a growing company and they have some good vertical integration, then promises from someone who has convinced many he's a genius there's more to come with even crazier things. He's figured out how to maximize hype and downplay delays as improvement, it's an interesting skill, the issue is he's started to set hard deadlines and he's missing them alot or he's following them and shits looking sketchy. Where's that roadster? If he just released that on time doing half of what he claimed id probably be a fan boy, been radio silence on that for a year now I think

Yeah but at least they didn't kill anyone with the rockets like NASA did with Apollo back in 1967, or that challenger mission in 1986. Fucking masters of innovation and technology. /S -ill leave that there just in case

Sideways movement, so say Tesla sits at 230 for a week moving up/down a percent a day, well you're moving up and down 2, issue is, that downward movement hurts more overtime because you have to gain back more to cover a loss, simple investing right? Well ontop of that they take a fee because 1, they are allowing you inverse access without risking your entire stake (theoretically you could) and they have to cover their options cost anyways, so it decays daily (you can calculate it yourself they also disclose if, but take Tesla percent movement x2-tslz movement=daily fee), if you buy in and miss you either gotta sit and wait for a crash to get out of cut losses after a few months cuz sideways movement fucking hurts especially with that Oh and you gotta buy really carefully, that robotaxi launch hit too hard before the failure hit the news so now I'm bag holding like buddy who originally commented. Technically there's always decay but you only notice on sideways movement, goes down multiple days in a row compounding beats the decay by far so that's why I said sideways, obviously when Tesla going up it's still there but it going up is what's really fucking you not the decay

good points.

It’s not a “bullish outlook”. It’s a bullshit outlook. $20 would be generous.

I have made a decent amount shorting tesla this year. Just sell the pop by timing the waves of hype. If there is no new hype news, the stock tends to trend down. Also you have a decent probabilty musk does something stupid once in a while dropping the stock overnight

Yes, yesterday was the time to short TSLA, or buy TSLZ. But this stock is just a wild random gamble now. Anything could happen tomorrow. The Elon Trump spats are crazy Jerry Springer sh!t.

I wish you were right. I loaded up on my TSLQs, however if we were to by precedent, the stock will rally 10% on a weak delivery report. The game is rigged.

One doesn’t assume that it goes down to 230 in one session.

Elon is now the head of sales in Americas and Europe. The same guy who caused the drop in sales in the first place. The board of directors literally does nothing for the shareholders.

It only takes one to crash the whole market. LTCM, Lehman Brothers, Pets.com, Countrywide Mortgage, GM.

Fog, rain, snow, night, narrow roads etc etc. 😄 And maybe direct sunlight can trick the cameras too?

Musk's specialty is to burn the shorts. Are anyone curious to go down the rabbit hole?

Furthermore, who in their right minds wants to get into a computer controlled (with no human intervention possible) vehicle? If this tech were REALLY as great as Musk pretends it is, it would be in every airplane flying today - but it isn't. Even with autopilot (REAL autopilot) the airlines have not one, but TWO human pilots in every cockpit. For good reason: technology fails. Period. It just does. And when it does you need a human to intervene or people die. The only upside of "Robotaxi" is that WHEN people die it should "only" be on or two at a time. Small comfort to the ones who are dead, but less shocking than a jetliner crashing. IMO, Musk seems to roll out NEW stuff every 6mos as the "stuff" he rolled out last year fails to materialize... $30K car? M3/Y Ridesharing Dividend?, $40K truck? Fleets of Tesla-Semi's ? Roadster? FSD 2017, '18, '19, '20, '21, '22, '23, '24, '25... ??? I think this is an intentional strategy of hyping the next "revolutionary tech" that is going to make $TSLA the next Apple or Google or Amazon, when really, it's not. All these things are fun to talk about but hard to DO. Which is why they never get DONE. But before investors get frustrated with the failed promise of yesterday we're off to the next thing.... this time it's robots. Which again are fun to talk about - but even a cursory bit of research will show the Japanese, Chinese, and Boston Robotics are all light years ahead in autonomous robotics - and they do not see a general retail market. Frankly even IF the Robotaxi and Optimus Robots did make it into the retail market I would be unsurprised if the general public firebombs the taxis and murders the robots.

...from a political perspective the GOP/MAGA & Trump Administration have overplayed their hand (IMO) and are likely to face a multi-cycle elections backlash - which they know. Which is why they are working feverishly to rig the Texas maps. I don't think this is going to work for them the way they think it is. To the financial point, and TESLA in particular, WHEN the Democrats return to power, as I expect they will, all of the investigations that Musk squashed when he turned DOGE loose on Federal Agencies will reemerge, along with new ones. Meanwhile Tesla car sales continue to shrink and Federal subsidies and Carbon Offsets are going away - drying up TSLA's main source of revenue. I think the political winds are headwinds for Tesla.

The stock is likely manipulated and being propped up by foreign interests to gain political favors and data from Elon. GLJ's logic doesn't matter here.

you guys said this 4 months ago, looks like the democrat brainwashing got to your heads.

Came here to say lol