Tesla Is Set To Report Deliveries Wednesday. What do you expect?

My expectations: * The analyst consensus will be too high. * They will deliver more vehicles than Q1/2025, but fewer than Q2/2024. * Cultists will claim that deliveries don't matter anymore because Tesla isn't a car company (even though 85%+ of revenues and an even greater percentage of profits come from selling cars). * The same cultists will also claim - with a straight face - that the new low-cost model will change the world.

I expect a bunch of made up numbers and cooking of the books.

He fired a sales big wig this week, so the forecast is bleak. He’ll portray that as a positive sign

And the stock price goes up 10-15% because of ... reasons.

Bloodbath numbers. Stock will gain 10%

\^-- this, no notes

I sort of feel like this is a dutch tulip in 1636

Funny how TSLA trades like a meme stonk when it reports bad information.

That I'm less confident about. It's gone down a bit in the immediate few days the last few times they reported bad volumes - I'm expecting the same. But yeah, I agree with you that the stock price is detached from reality 99% of the time.

even the cooked numbers don't justify the valuation

Down 30% yoy

Edit: Troy posted, 20% drop. Bahahahaha Troy Teslike is estimating a more than 10% drop in deliveries (potentially, much more - he firms up his estimate tomorrow). I like that well enough. Call it a 15% drop in deliveries. Then, the loss of California regulatory credits is equivalent to a 4-5% drop in deliveries on top of that. In short, an unvarnished disaster. The stock price will moon for at least a day, and then reality could potentially start to take hold.

I expect fraudulent bullshit

My prediction last week was 330k. Maybe that is too low. Lets go with 345k, that would be like a ~20% drop.

And Dan Ives will come on Cnbc with his massive bullish call on Tesla citing Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus, GrokAI and cultist will flock to YT to recite this.

if u didn't know, it IS a meme stock.

Calls it is

You’re probably right the first time. We all know that their “projections” are bullshit.

- Tesla will sell seven vehicles in the whole of Europe - a software glitch will activate Robotaxi "suicide bomber" mode, leaving a swathe of destruction across the Austin area - During a demo in Tulson, a Cybertruck Frunk lid will slam down and slice off Elon's cock - TSLA stock will, inexplicably, rise $40

Depends how much they fudge the numbers. They have even caught out before doing it and I’m sure will again.

Most likely. It’s kinda expected by now, isn’t it?

Right!

I expect 312,000 deliveries for Q2.

The decision to prioritise the cyber truck over the model 2 (cheaper model) should really be scrutinised harder. An entry priced EV is a much bigger market than a sci fi looking truck, and by the time Tesla launches theirs, there will be many others already in the market and Tesla will be playing catch up for the first time

Lies

Down 50%yoy

It'll stay flat or go slightly down the first few days after the report, but then suddenly start gaining 15-20% for no apparent reason.

It's alarming that they're still able to find that many buyers. "I don't care if they're Fascists, I'm getting a good deal!"

Who knows but the stock will be up 😄

I expect that if the lid is ever fully ripped off that roach motel what's inside will make Enron look like a Sunday School picnic.

False numbers

Having to build less cars means they can focus more on where the big money is. You know, like taxis, a cut-throat market with lots of competition. Oh wait, I meant robotics, a well-established market where clever engineers decided decades ago that a humanoid robot doesn't make sense for most production tasks. Uhhhh... AI then? Yes, let's call this an AI company.

I tend towards status quo. I also think we underappreciate just how many Nazis are in America.

Literally every metric will say peak Tesla is behind us. Stock surges on news of, I dunno, a menswear line, or maybe an MLM scam.

I expect astroturfing about how well robotaxi is doing and how Tesla isn't a car company anymore.

He might have fired him because the lie Elon wanted to tell was too big.

I see more Rivians than Cybertrucks.

My instinct with all the pumping over cybertaxi and the car supposedly delivering itself over the last week or so is the numbers are bad. Really bad. But Tesla being Tesla will do whatever they need to do to deliver some kind of “beat”, and as long as they refuse to classify what financially delivered actually means, the actual numbers mean very little anyway. I’m standing by for the financials, which could be a bloodbath.

They pumped it so much to cushion the drop. Happened before and will happen again. Backward ass stock

My thoughts: Musk is a terrible human being, and his companies should be taken away from him. It will be best both for the companies and himself.

Massive drop in deliveries, stock goes up 15%.

I believe this is probably the reason.

Loss of $7500 tax credit in September and energy tax credit income will mean losses forever and maybe CHPTR11. Double digits by fall.

I have seen a lot of Rivians lately.

Now we know why it was so important to have PretendRoboTaxi and FIRST EVER AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE DELIVERY IN HISTORY ready by this call. That's probably all he's gonna talk about. And the robot, of course. The robot that will be even bigger than Elmo's previous failed enterprises.

The stock will go up of course.

Tesla Leggings. Become a seller for only $10000 (for the startup kit, not including a minimum of $3000 in purchases that must be made monthly in perpetuity). I think the leggings are gonna be even bigger than the car. Join now.

He started bitching about that bill but I think a nazi salute trumps any loss in tax credits.

Only $40? Why so pessimistic?

Deliveries --20% Stock +20%

Lies

There is \*so much\* going wrong in such a short time frame. * nazi salute (x2). * Canada is gone as a market, and Europe is on the way out. * lost federal tax credit for US consumers * lost carbon trading scheme (worth far more profit-wise than the tax credit because it was essentially money for nothing) * lost China as a growth market (likely not Elon's politicking that did it, likely increased nationalism and local competition, but relying on China was always a high risk gamble) Can a car company survive their revenue dropping \*that\* much? What happens after that? I guess Tesla will find out.

It will be a case of “not as bad as it could be” stock soars on realistically bad news for any other stock

A large number of sales. Including internal sales to the taxi service. But the number of the sales to the taxi service isn't itemised to allow other sales to be determined. Statement that US inventory is "at global norms" despite Tesla US not needed to store cars for the 8000-berth car ships, and so inventory should be well under Japanese and Chinese norms. Narrative pushes autonomous taxi service as new source of revenue.

Even Troy Teslike's estimates of 350k deliveries is too high and is a mathematical impossibility given EU and China sales to date, barring a huge surge in global sales over June. My estimates using China Registrations, actual EU sales to date and Cox US estimates is a lot closer to 325k global sales. Stock will obviously surge on the news because nothing matters anymore.

I predict deliveries down another 40%, but stock up 20%! Lol at this point, I feel like no news is bad enough to hurt this ridiculous stock...

It will be a disaster Q2. But Elon will drop pump after pump over the next few weeks and the earnings call. Fully expect more fake autonomous deliveries, promise of global expansion of Robitiaxi by end of next year, sentient Optimus, mega energy packs blah blah

I think the elimination of all the federal tax credits and subsidies that benefited Musk is coming to roost.

It IS a meme stock!

I'll be honest I find it interesting that Tesla has been down the last few days while the overall market has been up.

Yeah. Delivery to more storage yards. 😊

Plenty of deliveries to a field in Idaho

Drugs. Look at the cybertruck. It was drugs. Also, does anyone believe that Tesla will be competitive in the AI and robot sectors? I have doubts.

Even if there were equal numbers sold you would still see more Rivians. People don’t use cybertruck because it makes them look like a tool and it keeps breaking down. One of my neighbor has one and it’s just always parked in the driveway. He uses his other car for everything.

It’s a reasonable take. Cybertruck the initial idea might not have been a terrible idea. But it failed terribly in execution. It’s just a bad car and it’s ridiculously expensive for what you get.

Do remember two years ago when their bullish thesis was the Cybertruck? Never mind it’s only sold 50k units and will be a massive loss for the company, we just move on to the next bullshit reason to buy the stock. So much meme.

[Troy Teslike](https://bsky.app/profile/troyteslike.bsky.social/post/3lskgmsaeg22t) has some thoughts and will have full prediction later today.

Are you in South NY. That's where I see a lot.

AI he seems to have already lost the race. Who is using Grok? It seems like it’s ChatGPT, Gemini and CoPilot are 1, 2, 3. The robots are 10 years off at least given Elon’s history of promises

Yeah. The reality is they should have made a normal looking truck

there's a reason insiders have been selling like made

they can just make up the numbers with 0 consequences. no point relying on any reports

The very rushed nature of the “self delivery” thing last week indicates they know this is very bad number

Most of them won’t buy an electric car..

Lies.

Numbers that could win the Nobel Prize for Fiction

It is *the* meme stock!

I expect it to be fucking abysmal. I expect the stock to moon.

Not all bad news, then. Excellent. Analysts will be mixed on the Frunk lid news’s effect on the share price.

They buy shoes, nfts, pay for preachers underaged sex parties, and TrumpCoins. They're very, very stupid.

They don’t have much money to spend on a new car too. And would probably buy a 50k pickup before a model y

You forgot that they will point out the markets where o a single model basis, Model Y is still „the most sold EV“ although it declines massively YoY, and tout it as a huge win.

I wonder if Tesla is buying(or leasing) their own unsold cars to get the tax credit with the alibi that they need the cars for the robotaxis.

You'd be amazed what you can finance. Just took at every enlisted guy in the military.

They're doing similar accounting fuckery, not all of it, but certainly multiple tricks in the same genre of fuckery.

20% actual decline, 5% reported decline, 12% stock bump 🤷🤷🤷 Fucking meme stock

Wasn't just the carbon trading scheme the only way they were net profitable?

Yeah and the PE ratio is about 185 right now. What could go wrong?

Teslegging.

Nah lots of playing up how much money they save with self delivery of vehicles. Stock goes up 10% which is more than the value of Ford and GM combined.

It's just the delivery numbers this week, not the financial results. PWNT

(Insert gif of Kathy Bates's Madame Delphine LaLaurie character saying LIES!!!!!!)

It isn't though, the y has lost that crown as well

I heard the exact same thing... and that's only one of a \*bunch\* of revenue losses they are shortly going to realize.

Where are you getting the belief that there are more deliveries in q2? It’s going to be lower than Q1. Cybertruck deliveries are non existent. China sales have been overtaken by domestic brands. Euro sales have cratered. There have been no price reductions on USA models.

>even though 85%+ of revenues and an even greater percentage of profits come from selling cars Nope, that's government subsidies and tax payer handouts.

This time, poor deliveries, end of the $7500 on 9/30/2025, end of incentives for solar & powerwalls!!!! Lying and saying sales are turning around!

Lost it to a Toyota model.

all that you wrote...+ the launch of YU7 in China, i wont call it a Model Y killer, but its cheaper, faster, more range...so its bound to take even more sales away

What's one more (big) lie?

I don't use twitter but the only times I hear abput Grok is in instagram reels where right wingers ask questions and then try to refute Grok's sources as biased.

Q2 is - from a macro level in automotive - stronger than Q1. People have more money in Q2 than Q1. And there may have been no price reductions, but the financing deals have been pretty aggressive. I'm 75% confident Q2 will be better than Q1 for Tesla (although still very bad), but that still leaves 25% possibility in my mind that I'm wrong...

And the subsidies and tax payer handouts are based on what? Selling cars.

340,000 imo. Troyteslike is projecting 350-360k.

It wasn’t a sales executive, it was his third nut. Things are bad at Tesla when Indiana Jones fires Short Round.

Credits. Go look at Tesla's own financials The amount they made in selling/trading carbon credits

The credits are handed out to Tesla on a per-car basis. So they don't get those credits unless they sell cars. Which they do because they're a car company. And a very high percentage of profits come from selling credits (sometimes more than 100%).

Ah, thus why you worded it as you did. Got it.

If Elon wants the stock to hit $10k, all he has to do is declare that Tesler is bankwupt

I think your first sentence is the only thing in their favor - that more people buy cars in q2. I’m just not convinced they’re buying Tesla’s.

Fair. We shall see... RemindMe! 2 days

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That, plus the Chinese government has obscure demand-shifting levers it can pull for obscure reasons. Given the current trade environment, political conditions will get worse between China and USA, so China will have no reason to not promote their locally owned options (a tendency their government prefers in most cases anyway).

Don’t mind elons other ai company, Xai. He’s going to let Tesla do all the AI.

new model y is out. sales will be aite

Vibe reporting. The company is a meme operating on vibes. Stock up 5%

By humanoid robot, you mean [a person dancing around in a bodysuit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4)?

The Honda has been popping up everywhere around me and I live in deep tesla country (northern va) I didn’t even know what it was at first but seeing three on the way home today I had to look into it. Also saw the dodge charger on paper tags the other day.

They didnt even have to make a normal one. They just had to make one that didn’t fail at the specs they themselves promised at a price they promised. The die hards aren’t mad it sucked. They are mad they couldn’t afford one at the price it came out at. Regardless if they know it sucked or not.

I know one thing: stock will go up, no matter what numbers they present.

Numbers down but somehow stock to the moon.

The new Mars Mankini line will capture the public imagination.

There Chinese sales are down compared to Q1 and that's a huge market for them.

Europe 14,000*3=42,000; China 33000*2=66,000; USA 67000*3=201,000, the rest 25000. 42+66+201+25=334000

Europe 46000. China 85,000. USA 196,000. The rest 10,000. Total 337,000.

1. Used cars killed new cars market. Too much inventory, too much depreciation. 2. Europe is dead and the best for the quarter is 46k units 3. China is and will be the killer of Tesla. Refresh Model Y is a busted. At best, 92k units sales this quarter. USA is tricky because California sales is down big but it's not certain other states are picking up the slack. Fair estimate 197k unit sales. Add them all up and give or take it will come out to about 330k-345k. When the EV incentive kicked in next quarter then battery sales will suffer along with cars and it will be the first quarter loss posted since many years ago.

This stock has been driftingower despite the big robotaxi and self delivery promotions. If buyers were to rush in because I'd hype and hope would they have done so already?

Remind me! 2 years

They can also 'deliver' cars to Austin. The end user is tesla taxi or whatever but it allows them to pump their q2 deliveries.

q: what happens to tesla stock when \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ happens to tesla? a: tesla stock goes up, because of tesla bulls.

I remember hearing about an engineer saying that we only need a few computers in the world or something like that.

I expect smoke and mirrors. Cooked books and massaged data.

The stock price will go up on 1) future robitaxi 2) Optimus - eventually 3) defense sector development - this is the new area they are just now getting into. 3k a share in 4 years.