Tesla stock valuation looks 'insane,' strategist warns

It is but people look at it and think 'oh look, free money'. And if enough people look and think 'free money' then it eventually becomes a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy irrespective of the truly terrible fundamentals.

Elon Musk is a certified expert at the "shell game."

Like bitcoin, the price is only determined by how much people are willing to pay for a piece of paper, not how much makes sense

No shit. It is a memestock.

This is true, right up to the point where it isn't

Yeah, definitely this. The company will basically keep momentum until something really bad happens that causes a loss of faith.

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Yup. It really feels like it'll unfortunately take a serious tragedy for the stock to move towards sanity.

r/NoShitSherlock

Agreed. Not sure what. I don't think collapsing sales will make any difference as everyone will just choose to believe in Robotaxi or AI or Optimus or whatever.

He is right of course - duh. At the same time, I don’t quite agree with robotaxis only being relevant for the „getting home when drunk“ crowd. I don’t think anyone doubts that in 100 years, taxis will drive autonomously. What baffles is that people think the company that figure it out first will be worth trillions.

A real robotaxi needs a solid AGI as the core, using a lot more than just cameras. 100% it will happen and 100% it will not be Tesla.

Beat me to it

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He’s a grifter just like Mango. Always be grifting is the motto they live by.

Agreed.

I think that comment in particular is in relation to the constant refrain of "FSD will make money while you sleep". Who is most likely to need picking up while "you sleep"? Drunks from the bar.

Just like crypto

It's been insane for years

Lmfao sure

>What baffles is that people think the company that figures it out first will be worth trillions. This! Exactly who is making money off of taxis right now? Not Uber or Lyft - both companies took over a decade to deliver a single year in the black, and they outsource the physical inventory and most of the risk! Building and ultimately maintaining a self driving fleet is a money sink, and the profit upside is already razor thin when the major costs are poorly paid people driving their own vehicles.

I mean it’s the definition of a commodity somehow. Yes some pay a bit more for a nicer car, but most won’t. It just doesn’t matter as much with a cab as it matters with a car you own.

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It's been insane for the past 5 years

I’ve made a decent amount on puts for the last 3 months off of tsll, but I know it’s gonna stop sooner or later. I’m actually shocked I didn’t lose from the whole robotaxi thing.

I mean, if it just keeps losing money at some point the structure collapses. There is only so much fuckery you can partake in until you can't pay the electricity bill and mortgage.

Greater fool theory, it will collapse eventually, and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't enjoy the hell out if it.

I think they would need 4 quarters of consecutive ongoing losses to make a dent.

Wait long enough and companies always revert to their potential. Enron looked like a great investment until it didn’t.

I could not agree more that their stock price is insane, and somehow it goes up on bad news. Yet, I wonder if the insane stock price can give them enough of a runway to actually make robotaxi work,,,

Waymo has my bet

How many years has it been that way?

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The humanoid robot is going to eclipse anything we have seen since the automobile or modern times, cell phones. Nothing will change our lives more than Optimus. Sky is the limit on the stock at that point.

For quite some time. But the majority of their directors are paid with shares and even their employees have stock packages. Investors are paying for this 100 percent. Since about 2021 Tesla stock has been crap. Pretty much sideways. If you timed it right, you could make money. But on whole far more people lost real money as it is just up and downs less all the compensation/capitalization Tesla does. Hell Musk bought Twitter with Tesla investor money.

Supposedly, XAi is burning around a billion a month.

It not even about figuring it out. Will not be overnight. Will more evolve and as you say, in 100 years this will be the main if not only form of transport. I suspect human drivers will at some point be phased out for safety reasons. Waymo is way ahead in this field though. And Waymo (or similar) will license it to every manufacture that does not provide it themselves.

So tell us, exactly HOW will Optimus change our lives? What exactly will it do?

If you consider just how many people are willing to have a strong opinion about something they don’t understand, you realize that it _is_ free money. It doesn’t reach that level without everyone and their mother speculating (both ways) on the stock. You must understand that subs like this only increase the market activity because people feel confident enough to jump in as a short. But Jane Street is rubbing its hands, and politicians from both sides of the aisle are too. Pro traders making money off bulls and bears alike

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At least cryptocurrency works as intended. Elons more of a Sam bankman

If their sales are that bad, you could almost call it a ponzi scheme

How much koolaid have you drunk?

Bitcoin is the biggest ponzi scheme ever invented. When was the last time anyone talked about its initial design as a replacement for fiat currency? Bitcoin is like buying stock in a company that doesn't exist and has no products or services.

I'm thinking that a future with all cars being autonomous is going to take a hell of a lot longer trying to integrate it with human drivers then to take some sort of area and prove that it can be done very quickly and easily by having all cars talk to eachother. In theory, in a perfect world, all cars would be able to drive by doing this, and you wouldn't need turn signals. you wouldn't need lights, and not only that, but cars wouldn't even have to stop - they would be going just fast enough that other cars could weave between them since they know their speed and exact behavior. Obviously im not delusional enough to believe this is going to happen any time soon. and I think there's a reasonably large amount of copium that tesla is going to achieve FSD any time soon. It's an extremely difficult problem that no amount of extra data is going to solve. You need better problem solving and better programming. And, of course, lidar. Which elon is adamant on not using for some reason.

Gotta be money laundering somehow.  Crypto to stocks to cash.

It’s a limited supply of blockchain data. People gave the value by buying it not by expecting to get rich quick. The people that originally used it used it for shits and giggles then corporate greed got involved not some random individual with a lot of wealth trying to play hero. And it’s cool to have a currency that can be used globally without one diluting the other. But I don’t expect most people to see the big picture and understand how much life changed for people around the world with its use. Granted for me personally it’s not much of a difference but if you can get a tiny pice of crypto in a country where your money is completely worthless it matters a lot. And believe it or not you can get like 2-5 cents of bitcoin for free daily on a lot of websites because the community actually cares. Keep believing whatever you believe through and keep falling behind.

And this is the reason the robot grift was started. Once the taxi runs out of road they will shift all their "value" to robots.

lots of shit's been coopted and ruined by someone more powerful watch your back and don't put all your hopes on this shit

> Waymo has my bet Maybe, but Google/Alphabet has no follow through, they'll bungle it before it's profitable, or shut it down because they're not getting the number of rides they want, or something like that.

> The humanoid robot is going to eclipse anything we have seen since the automobile or modern times, cell phones. No it won't. A general purpose robot in the shape of a human is significantly less performant and useful than normal industrial automation. > Nothing will change our lives more than Optimus. Optimus is total wank, like most of what they do.

Did you just regurgitate Tesla marketing slides? I mean, or was this some AI generated bullshit?

Also who takes on the risk if your car injures someone? And who wants strangers messing up their cars? Or in Waymo’s recent case, destroying them? How many rides would your car have to give to pay for the higher insurance rates? So many waves of the hand to just say it will just make money

People have said this for years and it has never found reality

Need Trump to pull the subsidies so it can collapse.

Oh, yeah. You'll also be able to have your Model 3 work as a taxi while you sleep in \*checks notes\* 2018. Not to mention summoning the car to drive from LA to meet you in New York and autonomously charge itself along the way. Should be ready for sure, uh.... 6 months tops or maybe the end of next year for sure or definitely the year after that because, uh.... elon musk? The cars will also be an appreciating asset and for the first time in history used cars will go UP in value because, uh.... elon musk? We're also going to put wires directly into the brain and it's definitely not going to form scar tissue and reject the sensors exactly like last time someone tried this because... uh... elon musk? Smoke and mirrors bro, Boston Dynamics is a decade ahead of Optimus and you don't see them making these pie in the sky promises. Elon Musk is the modern PT Barnum.

It's bitcoin with actual infrastructure to back it up; worst case, you have the assets of the company.

Except that even when bad things happen it’s up 5%.

I’ve seen it go down on bad news before - at which point Musk or the market finds some excuse for why it isn’t bad news and it recovers two to three times as much to be above where it was before with no real change.

I do feel it's like a looney tunes thing though. Akin to lifting yourself up by bootstraps until you realize, oh wait, this doesn't work. Might not happen here but the higher they climb the harsher the deceleration at the end.

Even if their robotaxi works, it won't be at the level Musk promises but that probably won't matter since the stock investors don't care about fundamentals, Musk will just move on to the next grift like matter teleportation, terraforming planets, or giving everyone superpowers

I know, it’s the real problem nobody is talking about. Everything today is a scam or a grift, everything. Race to the sewer.

If you didn't get out (and make money) after the first few amazing "time to get out" (and make money) happened, I have no sympathy for you.

Until it all comes crumbling down. Some are going to end up catching that fallen knife.

Xai? Is that one of his kids?

And this is the crux of the problem with this stock. People have figured out that there is enough market manipulation around it that any bad news will somehow be spun as good news by ol' Enron that they figure an investment now is going to pay (at least a little) dividends in the short term.

So a pyramid scheme

Couple of things: FSD in its current configuration will never be able to operated without a human present. It requires optimal conditions to be even marginally safe. And the company has basically become Enron with an interesting twist… everyone accepts it’s fraudulent, but collectively shrug and keep propping it up hoping to squeeze a few bucks out of it before the whole thing colllapses. The product stopped being physical years ago. It’s now a casino game with rules similar to musical chairs. Eventually the music has to stop though. Whether it’s bitcoin, Tulips or Tesla shares, they only have value so long as someone else is willing to lose and continue holding the bag until the end.

I take Waymos at least once a week and it’s a pretty flawless service at this point. Not sure how much difference AGI would make. Maybe fractionally better pick ups and drop offs?

All the same people who hate Tesla and refuse to buy one will probably refuse to take a robotaxi. Especially in Austin. Austin is still a liberal town.

Not an issue, they only invited stans so far ;D

They will run out of cash before that

It will drain your bank account autonomously.

I doubt the credit market freezes them out that fast.

credit + growing deficit is an accelerator to bankruptcy. If they want cash they would just sell shares, what use would they have of their insane stock valuation otherwise ?

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Google just cares about advertising dollars. If you don't have to watch the road, you can click their ads.

Intense based and extremely intelligent fanboy detected. Yea, if I worked close with him and kissed his ass to get fat bonuses like 10x my yearly salary I would certainly see him in a different light.

Nothing bad can keep a stock down that has so many investors who care about hype and not about fundamentals.

In what universe would that make me like him more?  Maybe you should go work for him, I would hate to take your dream job.

The gains from the past couple of days have already been wiped out.

In late-stage capitalist America, it's better to be early and wrong than late and correct. Besides, it's not their own money the Wall Street is playing with.

I look forward to not having to tip a driver for a service I am already paying for.

Exactly the markets always wins it doesnt give a fuck what pessimistic sally n peter who hate elon n tesla think.