Musk Says Tesla Almost Done With AI5 Chip Design, Working on AI6

Musk is a very reliable CEO and this is very believable.

Is Tesla almost done with figuring out compensating or retrofitting everyone who bought FSD with HW3?

Not at all the kind of thing that you would hear from someone that takes wild amounts of drugs regularly.

Ya the fix is this patent to basically give HW3 the same abilities as HW4

[Osborne Effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect) Don’t buy HW4 because HW5 is coming and that’s when FSD will really arrive! Or maybe you need to wait for HW6 for TFSDPP (Totally Full Self Driving Pinky Promise). Or …

Well if this is true, then people shouldn’t buy anymore HW4 cars. While they’re at it, don’t buy AI5 too. Just wait for AI6

How?

I will be thrilled if Tesla puts AI5 in the HW3 cars. I am skeptical it's going to happen, but I'd be happy if it did.

Water it down, gaslight to say it’s just as good…and avoid spending billions(?) on retro fits

Is there any reason would do this? No way it’s for free and not sure if the sensors etc are plug and play with the new architecture

People shouldn't buy Tesla because it is ever evolving. You never know what you'll miss out on. /s

That's the bandaid. My guess is they are making HW5 backwards compatible with HW3 and 4. I suspect this is why they are removing the ability to buy FSD. The cost to retrofit all these cars is going to be astronomical. Removing the ability to buy FSD stops the bleeding.

When will there be FSD unsupervised

It is free if the owner bought FSD. This is why they are eliminating the ability to buy FSD. They never thought they were going to have to retrofit so many cars. They are stopping the bleeding.

They are always going to make better chips. Might as well wait for AI7.

He responsibly eliminated $2T in waste from the US government, just as promised!

Well it’s already 2-3 years delayed. The shifting AI landscape probably required major redesigns to the architecture to optimize for it.

They have upgraded in the past and Elon said they would upgrade HW3 people who have already bought FSD. He said it like a year or two ago.

I believe everything Elon Musk says

It's absolutely normal in chip design to have early discussions of version n+2 before n+1 is finalized. Often n+3 is even discussed very generally. Intel and AMD have a yearly release cycle, even if it's a minor change (major changes are every other year for amd). Aiming for that in a company that doesn't have external customers for the chips and each new version is backwards compatible is reasonable.

I know he did and those previous upgrades were old Elon….it doesn’t make business sense for them to upgrade old cars and I wouldn’t hold my breath that they actually will.

Me personally, I hear AI8 will be much better. I’ll be holding out for that.

That's why I said I was skeptical and would be happy for if happened.

Yes

Working on AI6 could mean they either know that AI5 won’t fully solve autonomy or it’s just chasing the 9s. I have a feeling it’s the former.

As I said in another thread, the Samsung fab near Austin which will build this is under construction and won't be finished for awhile. It's not gonna be deployed in 2026. Even once the fab is up, it'll take some time to turn silicon into chips, test them in cars, branch software, blah blah. This is just Elon doing Elon things.

AI9 could be the way to go if I’m reading things properly.

This forum should be renamed r/bashteslacontinually

Companies are constantly innovating. No technology company will ever stop innovating, less they are overtaken by other companies who are continuing to innovate. No, the concern for me is when we’ll achieve unsupervised, but the chips will continue to evolve even after it’s achieved.

FUCKING THIS !

Just like he said we need to go to Mars in 2026. And then he said going to Mars isn't important.

Yeah

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So AI5 late 2027?

By the time a theoretical retrofit is available for HW3, I assume they're betting on natural attrition, in which a good chunk of people will either have upgraded to a newer HW4 car or switched brands. Either way, they save money on not having to retrofit those HW3 cars.

To an extent, HW3 cars have lower resolution cameras that can't be replaced. I wish we could get a camera upgrade but that's definitely off the table. Can't imagine it's plug and play.

I mean ya. But this is inevitable. I have a 24MX with HW4 and obviously when HW5 comes out I’m assuming I won’t get that and same with HW6 and HW7. There will always be new and improved tech. It is what it is

So what I’m hearing is, I shouldn’t feel bad I have HW3 because it’s likely HW4 will be obsolete sooner than later and no longer get updates just like us HW3 people?

Yeah, it seems like he’s causing this by making random “announcements” like this…

Agreed. But I would say you'll at least benefit from FSD 13 and 14 whereas we'll be limited to 12.x for now with the hope that 13 shows up.

For sure. But I’m sure when HW5 is out and let’s say update 17 is out I’ll be stuck at 16 or whatever. It’s all relative

Now hold on, what about AI10? might wanna wait another 9 months!

AIX

The twist would be, HW3 with FSD owned can get AI5 retrofitted but lose their FSD ownership and will have to subscribe.

I have gotten a free upgrade from 2 to 3 , so i always assumed it was going to be like that.

These chips are not like cpus or flu. Basically no matter how great a cpu you can always use a better one since the problems they solve always change… HW5 was supposed to solve autonomy. I struggle to see if that truth why they need to R&D an HW6…

Wouldn’t they have done that alonggg time ago? Like before they even announced they’d be doing a retrofit?

The difference is hw3 will never be unsupervised, hw4 maybe, will prob have limitations, but hw5 will be. So when you’re talking about the leap from no unsupervised, to partially unsupervised, to fully unsupervised it’s not relative to HW5 and future HW6 that will just be smoother but achieve the same end goal imo. Once they achieve actual FSD and it becomes better than a human driver, besides making it smoother, what’s the point of making it even better beyond that? Until they pass laws banning human drivers or change road designs, I don’t see a point in the difference between say HW8 and HW9. So to me personally, it’s not relative at all.

They announced that before they were having a problems selling cars. Every car they made was sold before they even started working on it. Now they have tens of thousands of cars just sitting. Things are a bit different now. Which is why things are changing at Tesla. Another thing that is going to change is that Tesla is going to operate the robotaxi themselves. They will never open it up for owners. The 70/30 owners split they talked about is never going to happen. They won't even do 50/50.

Just upgrade your car every 9 months bro. /s

By the end of 2017

They do have a patent for a wireless protocol many years ago. The car is just a computer.

When the upgrades help avoid a massive class action suit they make perfect business sense.

Is it better than nvidia chip.

That will only be available in the exclusive Steely Dan editions.

He's done that his whole career

I believe AI5 runs at a higher TDP than HW 3&4


Doesn’t this all just Osbourne effect buying an HW4 Tesla even worse?

And now he’s doing it at a time when he desperately needs Tesla sales to reverse their decline.

Actually, yes. 9 month hardware upgrades would be stupid. This is a 50k dollar car, not a 1k dollar iPhone. Imagine the depreciation of your car in 3yrs when the hardware is 3 gens behind. A normal car life model cycle is 7-8yrs.

For that they just need the AIN+1 chip an it’s good to go

The CEO can’t just say that and not do it without getting wrecked in court, that is the business sense

AI10 chips bro

I wouldn't be surprised if AI5 cars come with lidars...

Can't wait for AI8 to completely solve autonomy!

“Almost done “ in Musk-speak means it can be ready in 2030 but more likely it won’t , and he’ll just distract you with another promise … maybe the new dishwasher than can function on mars ?

I’m going to stick around and see what they come up with for HW3 FSD. should be interesting. I will wait on buying a new Tesla. Ball is in Tesla’s court now. they owe me!

This but unironically.

Which Elon doesn't.

Soon you will be able to have your car earn money for you while you work, like an autonomous Uber. /me looks at his 2018. Yep, sure. Can't wait.

XD. Man why didn’t I think of that, cars are so cheap that’s definitely something I can do /s

Literally. It seems like such a backwards move

Elon’s time like to us is 3-4 years:)

Sure he can, let's pretend that you are 100% right and they have to do this becuase the law says they can... So, Elon waits another year or so to say "this is it, everyone gets version 14 and we made it good for hw3, no hardware upgrade needed" Then it ships, lots of comparision tests are done and it turns out that it's garbage compared to the new release...so people decide to take elon to court. OK so that took, what 6 months to organize and get the lawyer who will do this...then you need to find the people. Tesla/Elon will delay as long as possible, drag this through the courts which will take years. So it's 5 years from now, Tesla says ok we are wrong, but those cars are so outdated we cant really do this, here's a $8k voucher to buy any new Tesla.

Obviously it will have to wind its way through the system but it’s possible they all get their money back + a fine for Tesla

which if less than the cost to upgrade, is a big win for tesla

It's no different than buying a computer. There's always a better model on the horizon, but if you keep waiting you'll never get your computer.

And here we europoors are still waiting for FSD supervised.

A normal computer life cycle is 5-15 years, too. Very few people have the means and the will to throw them away every year or two, even if tech improves. And unless something breaks, I'm not upgrading any component, either.

I want to buy an AI4 car hoping it is possible. Gemeni thinks there is no chance on earth or otherwise. Based on current technical specifications and Tesla’s hardware history, the answer is highly unlikely. While Tesla has not officially ruled it out for every future model, all current evidence from 2025 and early 2026 suggests that HW4 (AI4) vehicles will not be upgradable to HW5 (AI5). Here is why a retrofit is technically and logistically improbable: 1. Massive Power Difference * HW4: Consumes approximately 300 Watts at peak. * AI5 (HW5): Expected to draw between 700–800 Watts. Existing HW4 wiring harnesses and power conversion systems in the Model 3 and Model Y are not designed to handle more than double the power load. This would likely require replacing the car’s high-voltage to low-voltage conversion hardware, not just a computer swap. 2. Physical & Cooling Constraints * Thermal Load: Because AI5 pulls so much more power, it generates significantly more heat. The liquid cooling loops in a current HW4 Model Y are specifically sized for the 300W computer. * Form Factor: Just as HW4 was physically larger and used different mounting points than HW3, AI5 is expected to have a completely different board layout and connector set to accommodate its increased processing power. 3. Sensor Suite Changes AI5 is expected to launch with a new generation of Samsung-manufactured cameras that feature: * Higher dynamic range and better low-light performance. * Built-in heating elements to prevent fogging/icing. A true "upgrade" to AI5 would likely require replacing all 8+ cameras and the entire wiring harness, making it cost-prohibitive for Tesla to offer. 4. The "Sufficient" Argument Elon Musk has maintained that HW4 is "capable" of unsupervised FSD (Level 4/5). Tesla’s strategy is usually to only offer free hardware retrofits if the current hardware physically cannot perform the software task promised at the time of sale. Since HW4 is significantly more powerful than the HW3 systems currently running FSD in Australia, Tesla is unlikely to offer an upgrade path unless HW4 is proven to be a hard bottleneck for safety. Summary Table | Feature | Hardware 4 (AI4) | AI5 (Hardware 5) | |---|---|---| | Availability | Current (All new AU models) | Expected Mid-2027 | | Power Draw | ~300W | ~800W | | Inference Speed | 1x | ~10x vs HW4 | | Retrofit Path | N/A | Highly Unlikely | Would you like me to look into the current resale value trends for HW3 vs HW4 Teslas in the Australian market to see how hardware versions are affecting trade-in prices?

Either 2 weeks or soon 😀

My recommendation: If AI6 is a fast-follow to AI5, skip 5 and focus on 6.

Elon recently said roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed for unsupervised FSD. Freeway is at 7 billion miles. City is at 2.5 billion miles. **I did the math:** \* Freeway driving will cross 10 billion FSD miles within a year. \* City driving will cross 10 billion FSD miles within 5 years at current rates, and may actually need more data due to complexity. Elon wasn't particularly clear on what he meant by the 10 billion miles comment (do shadow miles count? or does it have to be actual FSD miles? many people may be hesitant to use FSD especially during city driving before it's perfected). However, we can assume he's roughly within the correct order of magnitude. As hardware, algorithms, training, fleet numbers, and data improves, hopefully this actually does happen within 5 years.

Soon…. Just like the Roadster.

The power requirement for AI5 is way too high. AI4 is already a great obstacle with the increased power requirements and additional hardware wiring that it couldn't be retrofitted.

Not saying you're wrong, but a guy I work with did the math, and power isn't an issue. I think it's even insignificant. Where did you see/read/do the math that power would be an obstacle?

That’s why he’s telling people it’s your the chance to buy FSD or transfer it instead of subscribing, to get some fomo buyers

If you re ever wondering about the one born that minute? .... This guy

They already figured it out. It’s called ordering a new vehicle then replacing the old one with the new one. 🫠

Given this news, I think it's safe to assume that FSD Unsupervised is not coming to any existing Tesla models that are not equipped with this new silicone. I have been debating buying out my 2024 MYP lease, but given this info I think I know what I'll do now.

And will the older versions be updated free of charge?

Not going to buy a Tesla before Chip AI69 v420

There won’t be. Only on taxis. If unsupervised, who takes liability if there’s an accident?

It will need more redesign because of the shifting ai landscape once it is redesigned