Optimus pilot production line running at the Fremont Factory

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[Full x](https://x.com/Tesla/status/1986558797947580555) directly from Tesla: > Optimus pilot production line is currently running in our Fremont Factory > Significantly larger Gen 3 production line coming in 2026 > We're also testing in our factories & office spaces for real-time use case > Our goal is $20k COGS per robot at scale

Tesla is evolving.

So much manual labour….

The real game changer is when the robots start building themselves automatically.

It is a pilot line. Automation is the last step of mass production.

Matrix/Terminator here we come !

I wonder how long time it is until these kind of robots become useful for the normal person

Yes. Nobody else ever assembled robots. [https://www.figure.ai/news/production-at-bmw](https://www.figure.ai/news/production-at-bmw)

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Why isn’t Optimus building Optimus!

I am 100% sure about it, if tesla has learned anything over the years it’s that real life data like that is the most important factor for enhancing a production line

Who’s buying one of these bad boys???

Soon, Soooon

A different perspective here: Tesla is using a lot of trial and error in their processes and have an iterative approach. That’s all fine and dandy for software, but it’s a very expensive approach for hardware. If you’re a company that can run on a deficit (heavily invested for future revenue) then that’s fine, but Tesla is now a mature company that needs to start churning out quite a lot of revenue for the owners. “Training” Optimus to build Optimus is a pipe dream - how do you iterate on something that is built without tearing it apart and improve that exact step without changing the process from that step onward? For some bizarre reason people seem to think Tesla is exempt from the forces of time, physics and quantum mechanics, which is quite interesting. “Iterative” doesn’t mean previous products are enhanced, it means you change process with each iteration, making all previous steps obsolete.

Or Number 5!

Amazing that all these humans are doing exactly what they claim the Optimus can do.

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panel gaps incoming

Lol the hardware is ready but the software is not. Back to basic research or your will eat up energy trying to approximate for every scenario a 4 dimensional world has to offer.

the fever dream of the quarterly capitalist

No, this is for stock holders

That awkward period in history where you need to decide whether owning robot slaves outweighs whatever happens to you after they gain personhood and they all have 8X your speed, strength and intelligence.

Exactly. Look what happened to the Model 3 build process. Some people seem to quickly forget the promises made there. Remember the Alien Dreadnought? Turns out having actual workers on the line are still important

It's true it will have its down sides like what if they take over. But also i would see this as a good thing for the older generations that are coming. By allowing them to have a better life

Everyone mocks this but all I really need is one that can clean my house for me and id throw any amount of money at them for one.

Quite the opposite, robots self replicating to service humans would end the scarcity economics, meaning capitalism, communism, socialism and all that will no longer be needed. Just humans chilling while all the robots do everything. And that can be both a utopia and hell at the same time.

The capitalists will do everything possible to avoid this utopia.

Also cook and mend my holy socks.

We already have more than enough means for a lot of humans to be surviving without fear of famine or disease, and yet..

Brave New World is a good example of post-scarcity dystopia, though without the robots.

Same. I’m gonna name him Johnny 5.

Where to economics play into this scenario? This devalues the humans to zero to a company and to the economy, so no jobs for humans, no jobs equals no money for humans to spend, no money equals no humans buying products, not buying products equals no reason for a company to exist anyway or no way for it to command a higher price for its products from more highly compensated humans (many of which attain their higher compensation from successful new ideas and processes that improve mankind). In this scenario the only viable economic system is the government has to tax the company’s at a very high rate, and give people a universal income just for people to be able to buy this companies products and if the companies don’t like the taxes, they don’t exist because no one has money to buy their products anyway. Either way, the companies will be less profitable than with humans. The companies trying to remove humans are also removing the very reason for their existence, consumption of their goods and services.

“Scarcity” in economics refers to the fact that we need to put effort in to make a resource available. For example, air is not scarce because you can just breath, but water is scarce, because even though we have plenty of water, you pay for water because naturally occurring water is not suitable for most uses and is not located where you need it, so it has to be purified and delivered which takes effort, and that effort requires people to be paid for their effort. If an army of AI powered tireless robots do everything to the point of not requiring human effort, then we don’t need to pay for anything

This is exactly the book on my mind when I wrote my comment. Dystopian novels in general show us that the future some of us consider ideal is really hellish to others

The ability to build and scale robotics hardware, like with FSD, is not the limit state of a humanoids, it’s the compute. Even today’s 1 trillion parameter models that require hundreds of servers in tens of thousands of square feet of area and gigawatts of power to compute, pale in comparison to a single human brain that processes 700 trillion parameters with a size that fits a less than an cubic foot area and efficiency that requires 20 watts of power. WE ARE NOT CLOSE TO HUMANOID ROBOTS REPLACING HUMANS. For further research, look up Propositional Logic and dive deeper into Inferencing. You can further layer this on with how LLM’s work. I’ve been researching Mixture of Expert models now for awhile to see if there is a shortcut to the lack of parameters, but context is key.

Considering they’re rushing to develop mass production instead of getting a useful robot developed, probably never.

There is no such thing as a “foundational” model in this context.

This is exactly the entire story of the Industrial Revolution. Every machine we invented made some workers obsolete, but created new types of jobs. At one point, 90% of humans worked in agriculture, then machines replaced humans to the point that now less than 2% of people work in agriculture in the US (at least directly as farmers). Now we have jobs like graphic designers, and influencers, etc This change is not going to be easy, but overall humans will work less hours, less drudgery, less back pain from manual labor, etc

As a single dad…this would be invaluable.

I have to admit, when they put the shirt on him, he looked so complete. Amazing stuff.

But that still leaves the issue of what we would actually do in this case. People are physically and mentally degrading with each of these attempts to replace them. We reached an optimum balanced of human and machine probably in the early 2000’s. You can see this in the physical degradation of people’s living conditions, their mental states and the need for financial engineering to afford basic needs that occurs more often than people just having cash in an account ready to spend. With robots building and servicing robots, LLM’s writing and debugging their own code and replacing creative and development tasks, the need for a human would be completely removed, instead of the capacity being reallocated. Many of us, even very young people, struggle to understand the smartphone, what job would a person that is not a genius do to survive when all the easier work would be taken up by robots and LLM’s. Universal Basic Income or electricity as a currency to the bots are the only two things that would allow a person to provide for their own needs.

What makes them holy?

You know what, take a moment to think 😆

They have to build Optimus at production scale first

What if I told you there are people who clean houses professionally that you could pay much less than the cost of whatever one of these robits will be?

Production line? Those arent even being sold

You made me feel old for knowing this reference.

The AI army would not require humans either.

Yall need to look into post labor economics by David Shapiro. He provides some good economic theory into this problem

The ones that stay there 24/7 are cheaper? If they're cheaper than a $20k robot I'm guessing we're easily breaking some laws.

Mass production readiness is really about the capability of the physical hardware since the software can still update it. Granted we could run into a situation like the Teslas where the AI hardware isn't powerful enough to run the models needed to truly maximize its function.

Yes. That’s my point. We have an example already. FSD on HW3 is terrible. We still aren’t there yet with HW4. This is intended to be a completely autonomous product. So it’s not like a minimal viable product without that functionality is well…viable. So why develop mass production so soon?

In reality, it would increase the value of the companies that make them by many trillions of dollars, and some people would become much wealthier while most people are living in the same day to day world. Over time, different job sectors would have ever more scarce employment opportunities as less and less people are needed. Unemployment would creep up slowly over time, which is the kind of slow grind problem humans, and particularly govts, suck at doing anything about. There will be growing debates, over years, about universal basic income, but paying for it would require an unthinkably high tax rate for corporations or specific products like robots (but taxing the robot sales wouldn't work because there's already many billions of them and retroactively taxing them would just make the companies go bankrupt or at the very least cause a severe economic crisis as the largest companies on Earth crash in value and almost certainly spark a financial crisis). Lobbies already make universal healthcare impossible, but I'm sure lobbies about unbelievably high corporate tax hikes or even higher taxes on the largest conglomerates to ever exist will go over just fine. We really need to fully comprehend how expensive UBI would be. The amount of taxes that would need to be raised every month of every year would be astronomical. The thing about wistful dreams of utopia because no one has to work is that it needs a coherent day to day real scenario of how we get from here to there. The scenario I briefly began scratching the surface of is hands down how it IS ALREADY PLAYING OUT TODAY and has a number of historical examples as precedent.

It is kind of funny, right? You do need to bootstrap things though.

Don't leave out the rubes that they brainwash into voting against their own interests. There's far more brainwashed rubes than there are extremely wealthy folks.

FSD on HW3 never hit full autonomy but it's really very good. I've done a few 60ish mile drives in the last couple weeks without interventions and my record is around 180.

I can’t go more than a few hundred feet without it making a mistake. It’s useless.

Human brains will be used as computers. That will be our work. As payment, we will be given a virtual matrix world that is a utopia, or at least as close to a utopia as our brains can accept.

Oh, bullshit.

This is why you've *obviously* spend the last 20 years leaving a digital footprint that **you welcome our robot overlords**. If you haven't been planning ahead for the inevitable, then that's on you. They know I support Kanos.

same here, but there's zero evidence that they are even close to this.

I mean, SpaceX has used the same iterative approach from day 1. I'd argue that a rocket is not software, and is actually vastly more capital intensive than iterating on a humanoid robot. You could say "but SpaceX is private and Tesla is public", but that would be avoiding the fact that the shareholders with an overwhelming controlling share of Tesla are Musk and Musk supporters, so the capital intensive iterative approach can and will go on.

Let's talk about a safety net against job displacement from automation. Is that a universal basic income? Isn't that just everyone being a government employee that does nothing but consume? DOGE hates that, right? I just don't get it. You can't have it both ways.

Oh yes, I've done that. I've also spent the past 20 years littering the internet with false and misleading information about myself.

There isn't a choice to be made, because you cannot buy anything like what you are describing on the open market. There have been promises, but reality is different than the marketing and hype.

I mean, it took evolution about 4 billion years. We've been working on computers for, what, 80 years? Evolution had a wee bit of a head start!

This guy futures

Im in for one if it does laundry and cleans while im at work.

I thought slavery was outlawed a fair few decades ago.

Do you think that a house cleaning robot would be cheaper than just hiring someone by a factor of 20?

As someone else said, that's pretty typical in the early stages of production. Automated assembly lines don't get implemented until way further into production. Often times not even until the second iteration or "gen 2" of something this complex.

Did you miss the part where you pay them?

anyone with more money than brain.

Is your house so filthy that you need an agent cleaning 24/7?

Assuming that these robots are mind numbingly slow (which they are even in promotional demos), then yes. Rinsing cookware, utensils, plates, etc and properly loading a dishwasher from a single meal will easily take over an hour. Simply folding, hanging and storing a normal load of laundry will take hours. This isn't the Jetsons. This is real life. They're going to accomplish tasks at an excruciatingly slow pace. It will be vastly inferior to a 24/7 human sit-in maid. Most people can't afford that anyway. The fact is that humanoid robots *will* be real products in the real world providing useful home services in the next 10 years. They'll start as a niche and over time they'll improve and become more common. In 30 years you'll find it silly that you ever thought it wouldn't work, or you'll rewrite your memory to say you always knew it was inevitable, but were healthily skeptical before it was even an available product.

Figure is a pretty poor example though. Even BMW disputed the claims of what they are doing there. Its just a robot in a corner putting down a couple pieces as a test to see if it could work. then they stopped using it.

BMW disputed it? Do you have a link? The only thing I know is that they said in one press release that at that point there is no figure robot in the plant? That was in August 2024. Figure said in November that they used it for 11 months. August to November is easily 14 months of time window...

I will be one of the first in line to buy a clanker for sure

How long before Optimus takes away the jobs of every single person in that video?

The weird thing is they are trying to contract the only thing close to basic universal income we have, social security. What we should be doing is giving social security payments to the parents of everyone under 18 as the next step.

I’m sure there are plenty of articles about it, but this particular post happened in may 2025. https://i.imgur.com/Gp67cQv.png https://mikekalil.com/blog/figure-ai-controversy/

What does this have to do with electrification of transportation or de carbonization of the electric power system? The lack of mission focus really worries me.

Didnt you say BMW disputed it? Your link says that someone says that they have been told by someone at BMW that it is untrue?

Alright man believe what you want and I will too. Because of course Start up founders never lie about their capabilities and progress. The “Person” is a pretty reputable fortune journalist with a lot of connections in the automotive world speaking to a bmw spokesperson.

I am not saying that Figure isn't lying. Read again. I am saying that I was told that BMW disputed it. And I don't see this. The Figure guys probably do lie as much as Elon Musk. Just as having some people manually assemble robots is proof of the next big thing...

https://www.reddit.com/r/robotics/s/PGsSj4k48K

I feel weird having someone else in my house even if it's their job. Especially cleaning, because it means my house is dirty. Unlike most other jobs I would actually pay MORE for a cleaning robot than a human maid. I have zero sympathy for my robot vacuum, I throw things on the ground right in front of it lol. Hopefully they don't gain feelings.

Who is saying we’ll never have robots that can do all our home chores? All the skepticism I see is around can this actually be done in the near future. I think that skepticism is perfectly reasonable based on public tech. I doubt you’ll find many people who think we won’t have built them by 3025.

Not sure about the disease part, I wouldn't say we currently have the capability to solve disease as a category even with wealth allocated to the problem. But in all developed nations which have produced wealth, despite that wealth being unequally distributed within those nations, there are very few famine deaths. What is your "and yet..." referring to? Any society which has found itself capable of producing significant wealth has also practically defeated starvation within itself. Increasing global productivity seems like a clear win, bearing that fact in mind. No prosperous nation allows inequality to get so bad that it lets its people die of starvation due to lack of access to food.

A 1,000 year time frame? You can get people to agree on anything happening by 3025. We'll be flying Pegasus' while wielding light sabers on our weekend vacation in a cloud city on Venus by then.

I actually would bet that we do not having a flying city on Venus in 1000 years. The point is that the timeline is the actual point of skepticism, not the concept. The basic idea of a humanoid robot that can do basically all household tasks is obviously useful. The question is can you build it. This differs from other tech skepticism like the first iPhone where there is actual skepticism around the use case for a product we can build.

>providing useful home services in the next 10 years. Any more than non-humanoid robots could? Doubt.

Haha I'm happy you didn't discount the flying Pegasus. I'm of the persuasion that by 2050 household humanoid robots will be about as popular as Roomba like lawnmowers in the U.S. I specify U.S. because Roomba lawmmowers are everywhere in some countries, but seem to have not caught on in the U.S. If anything, humanoid robots will probly take off in places like South Korea, Japan and China before taking off in the U.S. The U.S. has been surprisingly far behind on tech adoption the last 10-15 years. In some countries you'd look out of place tapping your credit card instead of your phone or watch for payment.

>The basic idea of a humanoid robot that can do basically all household tasks is obviously useful. The question is ca you build it. The fact is that it's pure science fiction for now. There are prototypes and concepts but there is a chasm between where we are now and the existence of humanoid robots capable of general tasks that don't require more training/programming/costs than they are worth.

Surviving without fear does not mean it's eliminated. I specifically said fear. I grew up with a fear of starvation. Americans all over this country grow up with a fear of disease, specifically being able to afford being sick. And plenty of households are below the poverty line, meaning they have a legit fear of starvation. And that's just America. Developed nations generate wealth, but humanity really needs to get its shit together if it anticipates thriving.

The fact is that you can pay someone like $100 and your house will be cleaner than it would be if you had a robot spend all day cleaning it.  So if not feeling weird about having a professional cleaner clean for you is worth paying out the ass for a shitty robot to do it, I guess stay tuned another 100 years or so.

For much less money you could have a human do this job way better than the robot can. But seriously, cleaning? That's it?

Of course not. That's not how tech adoption curves work. I literally said that they'll be vastly inferior to a human maid. The first Roombas were vastly inferior to a regular vacuum while being extraordinarily more expensive. I could see ~0.5%-1% of the population having them by 2040. Does that give a better idea of what I'm suggesting?

I cracked up so hard reading this. It's true there might be some downsides like the end of humanity, but they might be kinda helpful too

The problem with that is the humans at the top of economics don’t think humans at the bottom deserve that.

> The AI army would not require humans either. That can be read to mean they’ll be getting rid of the unrequired humans.

Tesla hosted an event at the store in the Miami design district today with two working Optimus robots - one serving bottles of water and fist bumping, and another posing for photos with guests. V cool to see them in person.

This looks pretty cool. Would those pictured be engineers or technicians?

Why aren't Optimus robots assembling Optimus robots? Isnt that the whole point, to replace human workers?

Worth the risk right?

I don't think they will provide enough utility by then to even be in that small percent of houses. I can see maybe a few industrial uses but I think the humanoid aspect is going to require all or nothing. They will have to be better than more purpose built robots and purpose built robots are also getting better.

Could very well end up that way. The humanoid aspect is itself an all or nothing approach. It's only advantage is that it can navigate a world of spaces and tools built for humans, so has all the potential with zero specialized advantage that robots built for specific tasks/activities have. I'm convinced that Nvidia's software suite for simulated training data will make capable humanoid robots possible within the next 10 years. However, that software is applicable for any robotic form factor, so humanoid robots could very well end up being a losing form factor.

Not close at all

That's literally a video of optimus being natural-language prompted to perform a variety of household chore tasks using the same unified neural network. If that's "not close at all", then no one will be close until there's a finished robot in people's homes. Your definition of "close" seems to mean "finished".

The same thing that makes them hole-y

Weekly Cleaning is about 225/week, thats almost $12,000/year. After two years paid for? Can clean more often. And no strangers in your house. How can you say this is MUCH LESS money?

That's actually a lot of people. See cybertruck

Hardware isn't. They overheat, have short duty cycles, and apparently break down a lot

Considering the promised delivery and availability dates given by the company, this is not close at all

That link is from 6 months ago.

The robots are going to sell for hundreds of thousands and/or have large annual subscription fees. When Optimus can replace a worker in a factory or store its worth a ton of money. The 20k is the cost to MAKE the robot . . . they will be selling/leasing it for as much as possible. Household chores are about the lowest value activity it can do.

20k is the cost to MAKE the robot . . . not the selling price. It will be sold for as much as possible to the highest demand jobs/roles.

Changing goal posts. Waiting for 30 to 50,000 being rolled out in 2026 to the public.you think it's gonna happen?

Wow! So you think they're going to sell them for five times more than what they cost to make? Buy me some more Tesla stock

Who's changing goalposts? The discussion was about whether they are close to having a robot that can do household chores. I showed a video of them doing exactly that half a year ago in a controlled setting, and now you want to talk about manufacturing run rate instead.

What do you think about Geoffrey Hinton?

There is 0 chance that optimus steals jewels or spits on your toothbrush.

Remind me in 1 year time. This is so going to be funny

Optimus being built by humans? No way

Is this near powertrain ?

He’s like the Steve Jobs of neural networks. I took his free course on neural nets a long time ago and have read most of his papers. I use him as an example sometimes of just how long neural nets, now branded ‘AI’, have been around. And after his retirement, that this notion of them being ‘new’ is hype marketing to unknowing investors to dump money into commercialized models that we currently do not have enough practically efficient compute for, we just happened to hit a basic level of current compute that more sophisticated neural nets can actually run on and not just be boring theory. He’s also the reason I think Google (since he worked there) is in the background actually so far ahead of OpenAI in developing an more useful model, but then also the reason I think we are not close to AI being anything more than chatbots, data research tools and very contextually focused vision system uses. The fact that it requires warehouses of servers and a cloud connected model shows we are at the ENIAC stage of neural net compute and not the ARM stage of neural net compute being efficient and practical.

Assembling their own replacements...

Very true on all counts.

How much does a companies profits, and thus valuation, require mass sales? How does the need for mass sales from penniless masses work out? Not disagreeing with you, I just don't know how things will work out.

bootstrapping problem

To be fair, towards the end of the video it says that the robot was trained with videos of humans doing the same thing the robot is being asked to do. While this doesn't diminish the progress they've made, it changes the power of the robot performing based on "natural language prompts". Also, it's not clear if the processing is being done locally.

I used the Optimus to build the Optimus — Thanos

Yeah but we could have a central server providing AI to a small army of robots. Like the movie Transcendence where Johnny Depp is a sentient AI in the mainframe. Then once we get there expand it to piping the AI tasking to off premises humanoids. We probably won’t have any significant AI running locally on humanoids but there is potential for networked or satellite based decision making where decisions are made remotely

Who's buying them and for what? I mean setting up a productive line.. small or large must warrant that they are selling to someone i assume. Is it all for internal use right now?

That robot is “doing household chores” in a same way that a toddler turning a toy steering wheel is “driving.”

"Chilling"? You mean starving, robbing, killing?

No I meant chilling. The concern that machines taking jobs out of human leading to them be starving, robbing and killing has been raised since William Lee invented the stocking frame in 1589. The invention was the first step in automating cloth production and was outright rejected by European monarchs for fear that the peasant will have nothing to do to make ends meet if they don’t weave cloth by hand. This is merely one more step in the Industrial Revolution and probably won’t be even the most significant one. Humans will work less hour for the same pay because machines will increase productivity. We will have 3 day weekend then 4 day weekends, and factory work will consist of people sitting and watching robot do all the lifting on monitors Not even a 100 years ago, people expected to work until they die, and a two day weekend was completely unheard off. Religion had to enforce time for people to prey rather than work. Now, people retire at 65 and reasonably expect to live 10-20 years on their savings. And we even have an increasing number of people who decide to have a high income career for 10-20 years and retire at 50. Don’t get me wrong, any socioeconomic change comes with winners and losers, some people will suffer, but AI will be a positive change overall

That's a very optimistic outlook. I don't see it happening for the common man. It will be corporate enclaves vs the unwashed masses. We will be managed like chattel.

This is wildly expensive

you're hilarious

I think initially they're gonna value them at what people will be willing to pay

You know there are people you can pay to clean your house for a lot less than buying a robot, right?

I prefer not having strangers in my house.

“Wistful dreams of utopia” but you are just describing requiring companies to pay their share into society instead of just hovering all value.

I think one plan is to lease them for just a bit less than a normal worker costs. But they'll be working 24/7. Supposedly companies prefer to pay payroll (leasing) than buying the robot at once. There's tax advantages or something. And yes you've read this right, this means that companies will be willingly getting ripped off something like 10x the value of the robot.

There will certainly be a monthly maintenance and software fee for the robots but I think the factories will buy them and depreciate like most equipment .. certainly Tesla will have to work with each vendor.. and I expect Tesla manufacturing and SpaceX to be big purchasers of the robots

Do you really think that billionaires with robot armies are going to allow humans to occupy what they consider to be their property when in actuality humans are no longer needed and just taking up space on beachfront property that could be used for a billionaire's pleasure? We are obsolete. Billionaires think of humans as their personal property. And they believe that property is disposable.