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This was in response to a post on X showing a picture of other auto companies represented in a graveyard: [https://x.com/LewisWithrow5/status/1993028198515544150](https://x.com/LewisWithrow5/status/1993028198515544150)
FSD and price of car is Tesla's main selling point right now I would say, so by licensing it out, it wouldn't make that much sense. Maybe in the future it will make sense when robot taxi and bots are in full force. Edit: Pretty sure Elon's 2025 compensation plan includes selling 20 mill cars by 2035 so by licensing out fsd, could he even hit that amount? I don't think Elon wants to license out fsd honestly, he just wants to be seen as the good guy on X by tweeting that
FSD doesn’t work. Why would anyone want it?
Elon wants out of car manufacturing. He sees Tesla as an AI company first (FSD, robotics etc) So he'd be happy if he can just license the tech out.
Then again, could you imagine what Tesla would rake in if every *other* car sale paid a price to Tesla for software? Edit: Pretty sure OP changed the post and the point I responded to. It originally mentioned a huge loss in sales, but my take is taking a little off the top of every other car sale could equal huge (software) sales for Tesla.
Maybe, but if Tesla makes more money licensing it..
While there are definitely some who bought a Tesla specifically because they offer a product like FSD, the majority of their sales are not with FSD.
^ hasn’t tried v14
Between fighting to get rid of the EV tax credit, opening up superchargers to other brands, and now this, I’m fully convinced Elon wants to destroy his own company lol
While it's true FSD doesn't live up to its name yet, no one else offers anything close to what it can do today. I won't buy from another brand until I can get a similar experience or better.
Doubt it. Otherwise they wouldn’t have built that new massive Texas plant.
You haven\`t tried it. Stop the trolling. There are 18 Teslas in my building, 7 had FSDs as of 1 years ago. all 18 bought it after they tried it on mine or the others...
Likely too much of a dependency issue on Tesla's approach to self-driving tech is in itself a business liability. Say another OEM adopts Tesla FSD into their line-up, then in 2 years Tesla raises licensing fees for enhancements that may be questionable, now they're stuck with it or risk having to develop their own self-driving tech in shorter times. Better to do it yourself and not have this risky attachment.
Zero to One by Thiel covered this. Be the underlying platform all the manufacturers use; escape the competition.
>What would be the point of getting a tesla then if you could just use fsd. Many people will still want to own a vehicle once FSD works. Possibly more people. Most Tesla owners don't have FSD so it competes fine without it. Any OEM licensing FSD will have to raise the prices of their vehicles.
Yeah i don't get why he thinks other manufacturers are going to pay money for something that doesn't work, isn't safe, and has been "going to be fully autonomous next year" for over ten years.
That plant has been in the works for years and has already been online for three or four. It is old news for him. He changes his focus more often than I change my kids diaper.
Elon's been trying to sell FSD for 20 damn years, with nothing to show ( until recently). That's why no one wanted it.
Isn’t there also the issue that Tesla FSD is incomplete in that it does not use radar/lidar etc but rather operates solely on cameras? Perhaps the other automakers are smart enough to see that limitation, which is at its core a safety and liability problem.
Exactly. Just to be SEEN as good. That's why he open sourced Tesla patents and opened supercharger network to other EV manufacturers for free! I am sure that was all just posing. Stop projecting your own flaws into others
If this is true, Tesla will take over. Because nobody can even begin to dev their own fsd in this economy
And at this point Tesla doesn’t know what hardware configuration actual FSD will use. Tesla didn’t even start shipping hardware 4 cars until 25 months ago, now everyone who has even just a two year old Tesla is unable to use the most current version of FSD and it sounds like HW4 won’t even be the right hardware. I think it makes sense for these major car companies to take the wait and see approach like Apple does with new technology.
Legacy automakers will just charge their customers more. They have plenty of time to develop their own self-driving technology over the past 10+ years. All have tried and failed after spending billions. All the time and money in the world will not help develop self driving if you don’t have someone who is going to stick around long enough and have overwhelming support of shareholders. The only option is adapt Tesla or some other autonomous technology or not be able to sell their vehicles in a few years.
I would imagine any licensing terms would establish a predictable pricing structure and give the oem the final say in rolling out new versions.
Yeah and those of us with older cars that bought the car expecting FSD to be FDD are now locked into a gimped version.... My car wants me to pay the 2k for a computer upgrade... Which I would love to do but can't justify spending 2k to upgrade it
https://www.jalopnik.com/2032555/volvo-ends-luminar-lidar-2026-models/ Volvo is abandoning lidar, not sure exactly why, but it’s one less manufacturer using the tech for driver assistance.
They probably got burned when they agreed to transition to NACS and Elon fired the entire supercharging team of 500 in 2024. You can’t trust an impulsive business partner like that.
>doesn't work, isn't safe [lol](https://youtu.be/U2nGKk9JVL4?si=m56xVNQQBZkdH6mt)
Hyperbole much?
What 2k upgrade? Don't do it, it's probably old now. Elon owes me a HW3 -> HW4/5 upgrade, I'm waiting. I'm told FSD is way better in HW4 and I bought in 2019 expecting to be able to use it. Now I can either use FSD or be stuck with TACC only going 5 over off the highway (but working way better on the highway, at least for maintaining set speed and not changing lanes randomly in heavy traffic.)
And yet Tesla is still deploying more and more superchargers. Hardly the “gotcha” you think it is. Try not basing opinions on headlines.
I’ll be downvoted to hell for this, but the Elon kool-aid drinkers will tell you passive sensors (e.g., cameras) are all you need, but cameras don’t work when there’s sun glare, fog, steam, etc. There is no way, regardless of how good their AI (running on consumer grade HW — a massive limitation) gets, for FSD to be safer than a decent human. Tesla needs to solve autonomous driving first, then start removing sensors. 90% success rate isn’t enough. 99.99% isn’t enough. Autonomous driving demands near perfection.
Still a nothing burger, idk what happened recently?
I don’t blame them. Why would any car company want to be beholden to a competitor? To be reliant on its technology for the function of its cars?
It actually mostly works now, when held to a normal driving standard.
It is, cheering for you to get it too.
I mean they want both.
Mostly works, but if it crashes it's still your fault
That can all be worked out in paperwork. Like slower cadence but more stable code base, and more consistent usage envelope means less changing of hardware as well. I mean the proof is in how liability works with something like ABS or cruise control failing in production with injuries. Probably a case or two, possibly settled out of court. How long do car manufacturers warranty the car? If after that expires have they ever been liable legally for the car failing and causing injuries?
Yes. Mostly works.
Nah those folks are kind of like old aerospace, highly vertical but not big picture or innovative. I wouldn’t trust them with that sort of intuition. look at Toyota or vw. I’m not saying Tesla will necessarily get it with vision only, but maybe
It’s already safer than your average human on hw4. It’s safer than me. It’s safer than you. Maybe not unsupervised but honestly maybe. If every person on the road had 14.2 the world would be a safer place.
I mean I’m new here but it absolutely f works for what I need it for?
There’s no tesla in my building. Not sure what your point is, but here’s another data point.
“Maybe not unsupervised” That’s the crux of it, isn’t it, though? Tesla has made a great driver assist, but it’s not capable of being an unsupervised driver. It can never make a mistake or you potentially die. Its failure rate needs to be in the millions of miles or more.
Volvo just ditched lidar for 2026. When the computational power improves and the software is better, lidar can then be implemented, still years away from that.
V13 and V14 are really damn close, not sure if you've tried it but it's clear they are close to solving it.
Car companies have been buying and licencing stuff off each other for years. It's makes sense not to risk billions of dollars in development, when they can wait until it someone else gets it to work, then buy it.
What is the solution as you need cameras always. If your camera system doesn’t work or is obscured self driving is not going to work as a car can’t operate on Lidar and Radar alone, plus there’s tremendous complexity when it comes to fusing multiple sensory inputs especially when things like Lidar behave erratically in the rain. And statistically FSD *is* safer than the average driver from at least the data that is available. The only theoretical advantage Lidar provides is object distance detection and in practice Lidar cars with automatic emergency braking systems actually perform *worse* than Tesla in tests so it seems like that isn’t even a silver bullet advantage either.
Elon: Do you want to buy my FULL SELF DRIVING software that's totally self driving but still requires human supervision? Automakers: Elon, that's not self driving, let us know when it's real and no human is required to supervise. Elon: that's crazy! I'm gonna tweet about this!
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Any competent procurement team at any major company prevents this from happening through the contracting process
Where are those data? The last I saw Tesla compared their FSD crash rate on **highways** to the average human crash rate **overall**. Highways are much safer.
The vast majority of my drives are intervention free and it hasn’t made a safety critical (as opposed to navigation) error in quite some time. It may be my geography but they feel really close to me getting to watch YouTube going down the canyon. But either way, you’re giving way too much credit to your average modern human. This thing is 💯 better than average.
As soon as you have (or the statistics show) no interventions in a million miles or more, I’ll be convinced.
I am doing 1500 Mi a month mixed City and long distance with Tesla's FSD. It's a game changer and I will never consider another car until it can at least give something as reliable as the current version. The driving is so relaxed and my fatigue is 1/10 of what it used to be. No other manufacturer is even close to offering what Tesla does right now in this space, which is why I got rid of my ioniq 5 this month. It's like when the iPhone was released, yes Symbian could do a lot more, but you kept going back to the iPhone. And most people could not fathom how game-changing the iPhone was until someone took it away from them after a few weeks of use.
But average lol. I’m sorry to press that point but holy shit have you seen people drive? The median is very low
Downvoted for “no one” when there’s even people *right here* in this thread that have it lol
They compare miles per major and minor crash, it’s agnostic to highway vs city. https://www.tesla.com/fsd/safety
Ah, I wasn’t aware of these data. I’d still like to see their unsupervised crash rate, though. Presumably an attentive human is taking over when necessary to avoid crashes.
That’s what these out of touch billionaires don’t get. I know many people who own Tesla’s right now that love them but still won’t try FSD (from all generations too). I love my MY and FSD, but the first manufacturer who makes a system similar to FSD (think Ford’s Blue Cruise) and comes out and says “if you get into an accident with the self driving system activated we (the manufacturer) will take blame instead of your insurance” will win this full self driving race. You’re not going to get widespread public buy in before that but whoever decides to declare that will win a level of public buy in no one has right now, not even Tesla.
I mean it’s currently supervised so I would doubt they’ll have that delineated at all, as it won’t let you operate if you’re looking at your phone or sleeping.
That would be a fair enough argument, except none of them are doing it themselves. Nearly all of them are relying on some other third party to *do it for them* and they *all* require supervision.
It isn’t smart to lash yourself to a competitor, licensing a key feature for all eternity. On the other hand, it is way, waaaay too late to start developing this capability in-house. It might be shell out or go under in five years or so.
Most of the shortcomings of FSD would be resolved if every car was using and driving in a predictable way.
I’m guessing Tesla already knows this which is why they started moving into the traditional insurance business. The minute they insure FSD driving cheaper than human driving, we know they actually truly believe it’s there.
This guy is full of shit every time he speaks or tweets
Maybe I got the meaning of your comment wrong, but Tesla does make their insurance cheaper when you use FSD. https://www.tesla.com/support/insurance/fsd-discount
Elon is full of shit
how do humans drive under those conditions? humans don’t have lidar or radar not negating the benefits of those, but i’m failing to see how a human can operate a car safely with two eyes but a car can’t operate safely on its own with seven eyes
You can't take your eyes off the road with mostly works
When Teslas have the compute of the human brain on board I’ll be less concerned. Right now they have some under powered consumer-grade chips. We need more sensors to make up for its lack of compute. Our bar also shouldn’t be driving as good as a human. It needs to be much higher.
It is atrocious in my area. Going to the left turn lane to make a right turn, trying to turn right in the middle of a bridge. Tonnes of phantom breaking due to shadows in the road, etc.
Hyundai and Toyota seem to be using waymo.
Tesla fsd stubbornly only depends purely on camera, making it unsafe, and he is thinking why no one wants to license it?
what cars with more sensors and equivalent levels of compute are currently outperforming FSD?
Right. It mostly works. Don't get me wrong. I use it a lot. And it mostly works
Look at any of Tesla’s competitors actually offering unsupervised rides. Waymo is giving hundreds of thousands a week.
waymo has *significantly* more compute onboard. their cars have four h100s on board. that’s an order of magnitude more compute than an AI4 chip. not sure how you think those are in any way equivalent
I’m not sure what your point is then. Is your point that Teslas don’t have enough compute to drive autonomously? Is it that they don’t have enough sensors?
Incorrect. There's no reason for you to think it's impossible to be safer than humans with just cameras. Cameras can see in all those conditions. They see less, obviously, but the same is true for human eyes, and humans can drive.
I've realized I will never get FSD on my 2018. At this point the battery will be unusable beyond local city driving by the time a solution is available for my car. 190k miles and full charge has dropped from 310 > 250 (real world would be more like 200)
Huh yeah I'm in the mountains around Colorado and the Denver area frequently, totally fine.
again, my question was: > what cars with more sensors and equivalent levels of compute are currently outperforming FSD? waymo is nowhere near the low enough cost/power consuming chips of what FSD currently uses. so no, it’s not a valid answer to this question
Don't you worry they will just get AI to write the FSD code for them, don'tcha know!
And yet Toyota partnered with Waymo. I guess manufacturers aren’t buying the Tesla hype. Which makes sense when I think about it. I’m sure no one is as frustrated as them about Tesla being overhyped.
and they all require significant hardware, software, and services expenditures.
Remember when he said you should buy FSD in 2022 for $15k because it would be soon be fully autonomous and sell for $150k? He then cut it to $8k because nobody was buying it.
I’m not sure if any of the other players have decided what sensors and compute they were restricted to before they actually solved the problem of autonomous driving. Tesla is alone in that.
Aren't the batteries relatively cheap to replace and dropping? Not saying that's a viable solution in your case, since the 2018 suspension and noise isolation is probably a little long in the tooth, but yeah I don't know I'm fairly happy with the Highland 2024 model 3. I could see just swapping the battery in 10 years and being totally cool to have this car until I'm 60 if it even remotely holds up. Hw4 FSD + the noise isolation is pretty fregin nice. Little fishbowl teleporting me around listening to audio books.
Hardware 4 was delivered to customers in February 2023. That's 33 months ago
I’ve been listening to your overhyped promises since I bought my first Tesla in 2012. The Model S that I bought three years ago will never be capable of unsupervised FSD.
The '23 M3 had HW3 and was sold into early '24.
There's a difference between them still shipping some cars with HW3 and what the comment said "Tesla didn't start shipping HW4 until 25 months ago". They have been shipping HW4 for 33 months. The best selling car in the world (Model Y) has had HW4 for 30 months.
lol. Grasping at straws…
So only in two of the states that they offer insurance.
Honestly… Tesla can’t even get the licensing issues correct with their own loyal customers. We should be able to own the software and transfer between cars. Period.
Hell, I’m pretty happy with 12.6 in my HW3 car.
I like how 2022 is a long time ago for little kids.
Tesla keeps making their FSD worse due to a near religious insistence that camera and only cameras should be used and never any other type of sensor. Their beliefs are what are unworkable.
It's getting easier and cheaper every day to build self driving. High school students are doing it now with remote control cars for less than the cost of a video game console.
Maybe because you said it would be totally working level 5 like 5 years ago
100%. Tesla has been confident *4 different times* now that they had “all the hardware necessary for FSD.” The reality is, they clearly have no idea until they actually get there.
I’m sure they have unworkable requirements since Tesla doesn’t have a workable product.
Exactly right. If you're going to hitch your wagon to a company for such a fundamental set of features, you need to have complete trust in your vendor, and probably have significant control over decision making.
I’m thinking more 100% unsupervised also where they take full responsibility in case of accident.
I won’t even consider them close until they hit L4 and the human driver is not responsible for what the computer does. I get why Tesla won’t do that - it’s a PR label that only opens Tesla up to more liability - but if Tesla isn’t confident enough to become liable, then why should they get credit as if they were?
Suspension is fairly easy to replace, but yeah, the noise insulation is not great. Part of me is looking forward to getting a new car in 4-5 years so I can commute and hear a phone call at the same time Edit: looks like probably $10k plus labor for a battery swap. Certainly has some appeal if I can get a whole new fresh battery for the cost of 10-18 months of car payments
there's 2 out of 18 parking space here adding my data point
People drive around without lidar just fine
Best selling is the rav4
BB QNX for the win
The $2k FSD upgrade when they announced it was one of the best purchases I made with the car. I just wish progress could continue, but I have never expected robotaxis until HW5. It's still been crazy to watch the progression of FSD from the early beta versions. It was like a drunk teenager then. Now it's almost at a driverless level. I still will debate if I get a rivian R2 or used R1S though next. Still one more year of battery warranty left for my car.
The 2023 best selling car was the Model Y. They put HW4 in the Model Y in May 2023
I was expecting to get literally anything even remotely related to FSD from my 2019 purchase, but I guess I'm just too European for that.
I think most of them are focused on building and selling cars. FSD is a nice feature, but comfort, reliability, maintainability and cost are also high priorities for other manufacturers
I thought over the years they've almost signed deals with a variety of automakers? Oh wait, that was to pump the stock? No way!
Tesla will offer extended battery warranties, too. You've only lost 20%, but if you lose 30%, they will replace it.
We have it the Austin Robotaxi deployment. It’s not great. They have around 24 cars now and recorded 7 crashes, even with a supervisor. This is all official data regarding the crashes.
other automakers are smart enough to see that limitation? who's doing it better than Tesla now? you cant even buy a car with comparable tech. Waymo exists but their cars are not for sale and they are moving towards cameras as well.
Cause Leon's FSD isn't as great as he thinks it is.
I mean… pretty sure you plan for scenarios like that in the licensing agreement.
peopple keep saying its unsafe but there is no safer adas tech people can buy today..
you mean waymo is using their cars?
The 2025 best selling car is the rav4
How do I get my 2016-2017 Tesla upgraded without paying that doesn't seem realistic, they have you pay for everything.
To do it, they'll need to the AI data centers which there isnt even enough GPUs and power to install even if they want to do it. They think throwing hardware at the problem can solve it but it wont.
Tesla being close to L4 matters less to me than how far behind everyone is from what Tesla has available for purchase
Can’t we argue the same for other companies using teslas charging infrastructure?
No. Toyota is developing cars based on waymo tech and Hyundai has also incorporated it.
I bought an M3 in mid 2019 and remember an option to buy FSD for like $6k (or so) with a little note that "full self driving on city streets coming in October". I did not click on it, as even back then I knew how full of shit elon is.
huh?
My guess is that Tesla would much rather license FSD and get out of the car manufacturing business. They may want to still manufacture super luxury or super cars like the Roadster.
Ok I’ll be waiting to see how much they are when they go on sale. Thanks for the info though I was not aware
lol FSD is a 20 year joke
I'm already at 190k miles
*checks Elon’s past claims of FSD capabilities* *checks his own 2018 X with FSD on HW3* *checks how much Tesla cares about customers with older hardware* Meh. Legacy auto makers should wait.
What auto manufacturer would want to work with Tesla? They have a terrible reputation, their user base doesn’t really align, Elon is hard to work with, Elon straight up lies about capabilities and timelines, Tesla abandons projects and they didn’t leave the Toyota rav4 EV deal on good terms.
Same boat here.
"... oh and I neglected to tell you legacy car makers actually have car system far more advanced than FSD and when they see this concoction I put together, they are ROFL ..."
Redesign and Tesla approaching 4 year old hardware for FSD that actually has a good reception around it should help take that back in 2026
I’m in the other boat, rip.
Maybe if Elon hadn't been blatantly lying about FSD since 2016 he'd get a better reception when trying to license the technology.
You can’t underestimate how badly Elon fucked up when he got Ford to switch to NACS (leading to everyone switching) and then shortly later fired most of the Supercharger team in a hissy fit. They were then late on adapters, approving new automakers and rolling out v3.5 with longer cables and V4 with 800v support. Even now a couple years later the NACS transition is kind of mess between OEMs and Tesla. When NACS went industry standard it was time to triple down on the Supercharger team not fire everybody!
They're fucked.
$6k was a steal lmao
FSD on a HW 4 Tesla is like night and day better. Hard to tell from a confident human driver in most situations. We HW3 buyers have gotten the shaft; despite all the money Tesla has been holding for us for a product that STILL doesn’t do what it was supposed to do 6+ years ago. I really like FSD on HW4. That said, I am unsure it will be enough to handle all edge cases and not require human supervision, though. I’m hoping I don’t get into an accident and my battery doesn’t brick before Elon can make good on upgrading my computer to something that can actually work (HW6? 8? 15?) Here’s hoping!
$6k in 2019 is $7750 today. Not that much of a steal
badly wanting an ioniq 5 w waymo hardware 🙂↕️
Come on bro. Just one more hardware bro
You can, because if you have a brain you know which situations are more complex and where it might fall over.
And now Wayno has the program lead for Model 3 who spent 11 years at Tesla, aka a guy who knows what he's doing
$2k for what? I went HW2.5 to HW3 for $1k
I had an Austin build MY from August 2023 with HW3.
This is completely false. Not sure if people come here for o crap on Tesla but it’s quite annoying to see so many people being intentionally deceptive and misleading.
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Yeah, you can remove the beta suffix and replace it with a supervised prefix. But that doesn’t change the fact that FSD isn’t ready (yet?) to drive by itself. The reason car companies are struggling has nothing to do with whether or not some driver assistance system is available or not.
**that's... not true** for the ones that are "relying on some other third party", they often just happen to own a significant chunk of that company for example, motional - a self driving company that is likely to ship the next major unsupervised platform in the us around mid 2026 - is 85% owned by hyundai. helm, another one, is targeting level 3 by late 2020s - and have demonstrated decent progress in the space. majority owned by honda bmw, ford, mercedes, and gm all do it in house. now as for "requiring supervision", there's only *three* companies in the world that don't require supervision for end to end self driving. none of them are carmakers it turns out, if you go down the ownership list of "some other third party", they're pretty much *all* majority owned by one or more car companies **so while your comment was true in a literal sense... not in reality**
\> They have plenty of time to develop their own self-driving technology over the past 10+ years. All have tried and failed after spending billions. hot take, we didnt have the fundamental technologies or compute power to do it until recently \> The only option is adapt Tesla or some other autonomous technology or not be able to sell their vehicles in a few years. zoox and waymo are both running unsupervised in the us. baidu/pony in china. what's tesla?
hyundai also owns one of the leading self driving companies (motional) that's targeting an early 2026 unsupervised beta in the us. by the time tesla ships unsupervised driving, there will be four (4) competitors already on the road (not including motional). maybe
Cool. Where can I get one? How much does it cost? Can it drive in my town?
It’s crazy they don’t want my fsd tech…. *has been saying it’ll be finished soon for ten years and still isn’t close *
\> humans can drive. humans also crash. a lot.
\> how do humans drive under those conditions? For every 1000 miles you drive, your chances of getting into a car accident are 1 in 366. For every 1000 miles you drive, your chances of getting into a car accident *in a Waymo* are better than 1 in 3000. \> i’m failing to see how a human can operate a car safely with two eyes but a car can’t operate safely on its own with seven eyes to be honest, there is something to this, but computer vision is a notoriously tricky subject i think it can be done, but you are making your life a lot harder by not adopting even a single $300 lidar sensor. that's why lidar/sensor fusion solutions are unsupervised today and tesla is still struggling with a 5-10x higher incident rate than waymo
\> Volvo just ditched lidar for 2026. thats because the company they used went under and the ceo is being charged for fraud \> When the computational power improves and the software is better, lidar can then be implemented, still years away from that. lidar is being implemented, successfully, today. waymo, pony, and zoox
the ceo is being charged with fraud. im guessing its not about the tech lol
Sure, and the nice thing about seeing in all directions at once and always paying attention is you can crash a lot less.
They phased that out in June. Was yours sitting on the lot for a long time?
These are fair criticisms but realistically you are never using your car an autonomous cab.Your insurance won’t cover it and someone will just trash it unless you bring it back to house after every ride for inspection. That leaves just driving around town. Most cars will be good enough in terms of adaptive cruise control so they won’t care so much to buy a Tesla. And this is coming from someone who moves FSD and uses it everywhere all of the time.
Word. I spent two weekends straight tearing out all the interior pieces and laying out butyl rubber and foam insulation mats throughout my 2018 Model 3. It helped... _a little_. Now the noise is straight up coming through the glass windows.
The only reason Tesla FSD is on the road is through Elon’s “donations” to the administration. Department of highways and transportation is issuing special exemptions from existing standards. They are literally faking it until maybe making it while everyone is at risk.
This isn't actually true HW2.5 was the first one they said was adequate
Tonns on companies keep saying they have the leading software and level-4 capability (Moya, MB, WeRide etc) but when you do a bit of research they are basically doing a shuttle route with safety driver. So I would be suspicious of what they say.
And you can predict the future and can already tell when such a situation might suddenly pop up. You should play the lottery with your prediction skills ;)
Yeah I guess for the time it was a good deal given FSD was 10/12/15k over the next 4 years and only came back down to 8k over the last 2 years. That being said, it was not a good purchase until about v12.6.4 (where HW3 is at the moment) which made major improvements on the end to end neural net update that the base v12 brought. V11 was the split system but had at least had neural on streets with proper context aware speed control, and V10 was just completely unsafe and practically useless without context aware speed control. So really only in late 2023/2024 did it become worth a purchase. The most current V12 is phenomenal with only a handful of hiccups over the last year of using it, I'm excited to eventually get a completely refined form of v14 on my car. I'll be trading in my 2022 Y the moment AI5 is available in a new model Y, so 2027 at the earliest at this point
Hardware is going to improve forever. They are going to be putting out new hardware models without backwards compatibility every five years for as long as cars are sold. That's how technology works. HW5, HW6...HW9987
I am going to be bold and say you didn't pay the 15k, or did you?
What manufacturer upgrades 9 year old cars? My Mazda hasn't had an upgrade to anything ever. People are wild, unless you are one of the few people who purchased FSD for cash you are owen nothing.
The supercharger network is fantastic and unrivaled. No one else is close or even trying.
What does Elon mean by „Unworkable requirements for Tesla“? Maybe an actually functioning product that reaches certain predefined benchmarks? Yeah, no wonder Tesla wasn’t able to make a deal. This is especially sad considering they are a software company and not a car maker. Their words, not mine 😄
I've never driven a HW4 vehicle, but I'm perfectly happy with FSD on my 202 HW3 Model 3
Which would be less of an issue if they made the hardware upgradeable
And Volvo owns Zenseact.
I prefer IONNA and Mercedes. Both are spreading pretty quickly. They charge faster and don't require apps.
> zoox and waymo are both running unsupervised in the us. When it comes to Tesla you can see the progress made with FSD 14.1.7 and now 14.2 - they've essentially solved the core problem, they're just in the long tail of all the edge case scenarios that will require a few years to fully work through - but that's no different to Waymo or Zoox. I expect Tesla to go fully unsupervised in the next few months (Elon's said this year, so Q1 next year isn't an unreasonable estimate). Both Zoox and Waymo are coded rather than trained neural networks, which is a very different proposition and the primary reason their rollouts are so limited. The sensor suites required are also multiple times the cost of Tesla's system, and are integral to the coded software. However, the real difference is one of manufacturing scale. Tesla are gearing up to build 5m vehicles a year by the end of the decade, all of which will have the ability to drive themselves. I don't think people are prepared for quite how much personal transportation is going to change over the next decade - from the little things like having the car deliver itself to your door rather than going to a dealership to collect it, to the shift in ownership patterns vs rental / using a taxi, to how to even insure the cars in the first place (I'm convinced this is why Tesla started offering their own insurance, they'll bake it into a monthly subscription for FSD with your insurance included whilst you drive under FSD).
Because like Elon wants have no market outside the UsA... other manufacturer I guess most European, here nobody, I repeat nobody, will ever pay for a subscription for a car... heck people here hate financing and micro transaction too... look at some data about debit vs credit USA compared to EU or any other country for that matter
\> Elon's said this year, so Q1 next year isn't an unreasonable estimate He said it last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. *lol.* \> Both Zoox and Waymo are coded rather than trained neural networks **This is 100% false.** I genuinely don't know where you heard this, but they're both using CNNs. Waymo has a ruleset language for local laws, that they use to fast patch (such as if a new sign type is released without warning). They also retrain models daily, and deploy regional models. \> the primary reason their rollouts are so limited the primary reason their rollouts are so limited is a combination of extensive testing and conservative incident goals. they also need to roll out infrastructure such as ops centers - something that tesla is struggling with (mostly due to lack of experience). by the way, waymo has had zero incidents in new york so far - including on day 0. tesla has had a bunch in austin - arguably a less complicated city to drive in zoox is behind, but they presumably are taking the same approach you're wrong about a lot of stuff. you should reconsider tesla's place in the market from first principles instead of reading marketing fluff. they're still a major contendor, and i think they'll get there, but they have lost their first mover advantage \> Tesla are gearing up to build 5m vehicles a year by the end of the decade, all of which will have the ability to drive themselves. I have serious doubts about this. At least until HW5 ships. \> to the shift in ownership patterns vs rental / using a taxi not to be too futurist, but i think being a car maker is a liability in this model. think about it... the assumption that one person needs one car is going to be completely invalidated. i suspect you'll start seeing major car makers implode over the next 20 years.
I won’t hold my breath. I’m still waiting for this cheap lidar to start popping up on mass produced vehicles.
None of those are the companies I was referring to, but okay.
Uh... it has. lol If sub $100 BOM automotive grade LIDAR cost isn't cheap enough for you, then you're gonna die of lack of oxygen. You can even buy a robotics grade (30m 360 60hz scan rate) LIDAR for like $40 on aliexpress now (that's *retail* pricing) \> still waiting for this cheap lidar to start popping up on mass produced vehicles. The Toyota bZ3x is shipping LIDAR on a $20k car and Geely is shipping a $15k car with LIDAR. Have been for a few months now. GM and BMW have been shipping LIDAR units that cost est bom of $500 for about a year **cheap automotive lidar is here and it's been here**
Not in America mate. And volvo just recently paused on their initial roll out for equipment that wasn’t going to be included in their software out of the gate. We’re still seeing companies struggle with OTA. It took forever and regulation just to get manufacturers to install a basic rearview camera on their fleets. It will be years before we see lidar as a common place feature without the government pushing it.
\> Not in America mate. First of all mate, America isn't the only country. And second, yes, in America. \> And volvo just recently paused on their initial roll out for equipment that wasn’t going to be included in their software out of the gate. It's because that LIDAR company failed to manufacture and their CEO was arrested on fraud charges. i dont see how that's LIDAR's problem (although it does suck for adoption lol). you really need to get up to date
A steal for something that was never delivered during the time I owned the car, and that even if it was wouldn’t be transferable? Nah
I doubt we’re even 4 HW versions away from them implanting FSD. If i could bet on it we’d be at HW10+ before we see FSD come out of beta, if it ever does.
Old auto and old space Both their own enemies that keep telling customers what they want
\> First of all mate, America isn't the only country. And second, yes, in America. yes we both recognize that, you can now see why im not holding my breath. \> It's because that LIDAR company failed to manufacture and their CEO was arrested on fraud charges. i dont see how that's LIDAR's problem (although it does suck for adoption lol). you really need to get up to date I never suggested it was a LiDAR problem, only that once again, the promise of a somewhat immediate mass market vehicle having Lidar as a new standard was delayed once again. Hence why I’m not holding my breath for lidar, let alone higher ADAS on common consumer vehicles anytime soon.
After what, 12 years? It still doesn’t work
This assumes that tesla is primarily responsible for the delayed roll outs with other manufacturers. I’d have to imagine it’s not just tesla here. Remember Tesla made NACS an open platform. It’s not theirs to manage. Ford was the first to announce their plans to adopt NACS, then years later, they are still putting the charge port in a somewhat incompatible spot on new vehicles, and how is their build out of the ford charging network going? It seems like their adoption was rather half ass as well.
Waymo uses Jaguars
Licensing concerns should be manageable through contracts. I think it’s more so that the technology is still unproven, and committing now is largely still viewed as a gamble in just about every aspect. As an example, the regulatory side still hasn’t been sorted out, nor has the liability. Imagine a company investing billions into tesla only to learn their software won’t be allowed in various countries. That and legacy manufacturers are still stumbling through OTA. Imagine them trying to manage tesla’s updates.
> This is 100% false. I genuinely don't know where you heard this, but they're both using CNNs. Waymo has a ruleset language for local laws, that they use to fast patch (such as if a new sign type is released without warning). They also retrain models daily, and deploy regional models. I was admittedly lax in my description, but Waymo is definitely not an end to end neural network. Some things, like the handling of traffic lights, are entirely handled in code. The planner is a hybrid system where Waymo themselves have said that the bar for replacing it with a purely machine-learned system is very high. They are using neural networks for things like object detection and classification. AIUI most (if not all) of the safety critical behaviour is hand coded. I haven't read as much about Zoox but my understanding was they were behind Waymo in their use of trained networks, but that it was an area of active research for them. > the primary reason their rollouts are so limited is a combination of extensive testing and conservative incident goals. And their mapping requirements. Their approach requires detailed mapping of every street the cars will travel, both in terms of the 3D modelling but also the specific rules and regulations for that area (e.g. no right turn through red on a given junction). > by the way, waymo has had zero incidents in new york so far - including on day 0. tesla has had a bunch in austin - arguably a less complicated city to drive in That's a somewhat cherry picked stat. Here's the chart for the [number of incidents Waymo has been involved in](https://www.damfirm.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Waymo-Accident-Timeline.png). In the first 8 months of this year Waymo's have been involved in 464 incidents, including one fatality. With ~2,000 vehicles operating, that's 23% of their fleet having an incident this year. > you're wrong about a lot of stuff. you should reconsider tesla's place in the market from first principles instead of reading marketing fluff. they're still a major contendor, and i think they'll get there, but they have lost their first mover advantage I'm not reading their marketing stuff, I'm driving one with FSD (albeit not the 14 branch) and watching videos of others taking journeys in FSD 14.x cars. I can judge their progress for myself, and based on that experience it's when not if they'll solve self driving. I also don't think first mover advantage is *that* big a deal - it would be nice, but I think their manufacturing capability will easily see off Waymo for example. Even if Waymo's solution is technically better, it'll be like the Betamax / VHS war where Tesla's ability to put cars onto the road at a far cheaper price will just flood the market with a product that is good enough. The more serious competition comes from China, and I simply don't know enough about how genuine their progress has been, vs it being marketing fluff, to pass judgement. > I have serious doubts about this. At least until HW5 ships. 2027, when HW5 is slated for introduction, is before the end of the decade... But I don't think that'll be needed for rollout in the US. v14.2 is already as safe at driving the car as most drivers on the road, arguably better than most in terms of likelihood to have a major accident even if there are still some scenarios where minor dings are more likely, such as thin chains blocking a parking bay. I suspect HW4 will be good enough, with a little more finessing, for mass rollout and adoption. HW5 will make it superhuman, in terms of things like reaction time when it's taking direct feeds from the camera instead of the camera signal being processed first. > not to be too futurist, but i think being a car maker is a liability in this model. think about it... the assumption that one person needs one car is going to be completely invalidated. i suspect you'll start seeing major car makers implode over the next 20 years. I expect many major car makers to implode, not least because so many of them are already heavily leveraged at a time when they need to be investing billions to modernise the way they make cars. Some manufacturers, IMHO Tesla and a couple of Chinese manufacturers will be the major beneficiaries, will do massively well. Tesla are uniquely well placed amongst the western manufacturers as they've been preparing for this from the outset, particularly with revolutionising the way cars are made with the Gigapress and their overall production line philosophy which leaves them as one of the only manufacturers to actually make money on each EV they sell despite being at a low price point for the quality of their offering. Such a switch will require other manufacturers to borrow tens of billions to completely retool factories and production lines at a time when they're already strapped for cash. The only thing that will stop a complete bloodbath will be state intervention to prop up the incumbent industry.
Not talking about the FSD upgrade talking about the internal computer. The older models has a specific type of computer and chip set that isn't performing well with all of the updates since it's stretched to capacity. Still love the car just wish the updates worked for my setup.
When are these other companies going to realize that driving is archaic??
It works most of the time, just not all of the time... which is not good enough to be "full", but still leagues better than anyone else who currently only offer "none"
They’ll just buy NVIDIA’s drive solution. They can lock themselves into as little or as much of it as they want. They can make their own software stack on NVIDIA’s hw, or they can run DriveOS, but use their own training data, or they can use NVIDIA’s training and algorithms but their own display software, or they can go full stack if they want. It’s very à la carte. Mercedes, Lucid, BYD, Rivian, Polestar, Volvo, and Toyota are already either using it or are implementing it on future cars.
Tesla would be an unreliable development partner.
It’s “unrivaled” in the sense that they are everywhere and very reliable which may be the two most important aspects of a charging network. But my Silverado truck can charge over 100kW more than 99% of the installed superchargers and the vast majority of other EVs struggle with the user experience due to the short cables. They are definietly not “unrivaled” in those areas.
Adapter shortages were a huge part of the delayed rollout. Also compatability testing. The same thing Elon is crapping on with this post. Automakers have really long product cycles. If you want to work with them you have to accept that as they probably are not going to change that quickly. Most have moved to shorter product cycles over time.
I'm guessing there's some liability factor.
Companies like to trust their partners and Tesla can't offer accurate forecasting.
If your perspective is specific to what was actually offered at the time, they essentially delivered. It was a great deal for me. But i would no longer recommend an outright purchase now that there is a subscription option.
…and everybody clapped.
> not adopting a single $300 lidar sensor can you show me what unsupervised solutions exist with only a single $300 lidar sensor? how much does waymo’s sensor suite cost again?
Which was only possible because FSD was driving
Pretty sure it was only $8k at the time as HW3 was coming out. Yes I bought with the promise it was good enough for FSD Unsupervised or would be upgraded. This is why Elon owes me an upgrade.
And yet it's called "full self driving". Does it full self drive for you? Do you have some special new version nobody else has?
Literally every other car manufacturer can pretty much self drive too, some even do it better than Tesla. The question is not the technology, the question is the legal part and the edge case scenarios. In EU even Tesla requires you to hold the steering wheel even on the highway.
If you had purchased FSD in 2016-17 they would have upgraded you for free to HW3 already, and HW4/5 in the future.
Dude, you are promising lvl5 autonomy for many years now, just stop with this bs
Explain how it’s false if you’re gonna make those accusations.
Yeah and none of the existing technology is good enough for a product they have been promising for years. They don’t even know what technology they actually need for it to work.
I have HW3 and feel cheated.
I don't think he sold us FSD since 2005, but he definitely did since 2016.
That still reeks of a huge potential for filter bias. Where are people actually use FSD? If 80% of FSD mileage is on the comparable safe highway vs, 40% of standard driving mileage you could create the impression of a significant safety advantages that may or may not exist.
10 years at most. The original autopilot was introduced in 2014. FSD was first offered in 2016.
Makes sense to go with the company that has both the most mature self driving technology and experience in working with third-party auto manufacturers.
Considering how much people bitch in the fsd sub Reddit and knowing how much Tesla is training their fsd, I am hard pressed it will be easy for any of these other companies to compete with Tesla.
It's good enough to reliably drive my 17-mile commute without any interventions and even park in the parking lot at my office. That's not something previous versions of FSD could do. It's basically what I was hoping for when I first bought FSD years ago (I never really expected true level 4/5 autonomy where you don't need to pay any attention at all, I always thought Elon was absolutely full of it, at least in the foreseeable future back in 2019 when I paid for the upgrade). Tesla also offers a discount on their insurance if you use FSD (with the discount proportional to the percentage of miles you spend driving FSD). So it's at least statistically safer than driving without FSD, otherwise their insurance discount wouldn't work financially for them. I definitely feel like I'm commuting more safely with monitored FSD than driving a normal car without AP or FSD. It's not level 4/5 autonomy, but it's definitely making progress towards it. It's even dodging potholes, something I haven't seen previous versions of FSD even attempt to do. Back when I first got FSD years ago, it was so unreliable that I wouldn't turn it on if there was a passenger in the car as I knew it'd probably freak them out even on a short drive. I'd go months without turning it on, using standard AP instead, because it felt like having a teenager driving the car (a teenager who was driving a car for the first time in their life). They've made a huge amount of progress since then and I wouldn't think twice about leaving it one when I have passengers.
You only mentioned Motional which has suspended it's business https://autotechinsight.spglobal.com/news/5275773/motional-lays-off-around-550-employees-pauses-commercial-operations
I had HW 2. Upgraded the MCU to 2.5. I also feel cheated. Sold our teslas. Bought a Lucid. Autonomy isn’t as good, but I also don’t feel like I was sold snake oil.
How do you figure HW4 won’t be the right hardware? Do you have a HW4 car?
Human eyes have a massively better dynamic range than any digital camera.
Because human eyes have better dynamic range.
If HW4 will be enough, why aren’t they upgrading people to HW4 who paid for FSD in full?
yeah this is definitely not true. at night i can see better looking at the cameras on the screen then i can by looking out the window
Relatively to the price of the entire car, sure. “Cheap” isn’t a word I would use to describe it though. Maybe in 10 years it will be, but last I saw battery replacements are still like $20k for a long range model Y
Because they are still going to try to make it work even on HW3.
> Yeah and none of the existing technology is good enough How do you know HW4 isn’t good enough? Do you have some insider info, or you don’t actually know?
That's not what dynamic range means.
Legit question: Has there been a single public, paying-customer drive in a Tesla with no safety driver in the car? I get that he dunks on Waymo all the time or whatever and there are very different approaches, but I can see why no car company would want to pay what would surely be >$10K per car (you'd need to buy Tesla's hardware stack too!) to implement their autonomy when it still isn't safe enough to pull the human out after all these years of promises. Like if it's going to be a level 2 system for [unknown variable] years there are lots of other options where you don't hand a ton of money to one of your competitors.
It’s been since May that HW3 cars have had any sort of update, doesn’t sound like they are making it work, especially since the next update doesn’t look like it’s coming out until may of 2026. Tesla also didn’t think they would need a front bumper camera, yet all the new cars have it. Just lots of wrong decisions made over the years that are starting to show up because they seriously underpowered the cars with regard to what the future of FSD would need. Instead of leaving room with more power, everything was underpowered to begin with.
Yeah, have they been upgrading people to HW4 who paid in full for FSD? Where is the upgrade program for that?
This is actually true. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/s/NN5jr3ppFc
It’s unfortunately not their main priority. But it makes sense. First they have to make it good, just in general, which would be on whatever hardware is the best. Then they can work on optimizing for lesser hardware. So, it’s their priority just in a roundabout way. To think that these neural networks are fully optimized would be foolish.
Optical only is such a death trap without outsourced computing models.
I actually work in driving assistance systems development. Tesla doesn’t have any experience working as a tier 1 supplier. Ford or whoever probably wanted Tesla to write a whole interface of CAN messages that doesn’t currently exist within Tesla’s vertical integration. They probably wanted Tesla to work with some existing supplier base, reuse existing hardware, put the OEM‘s code within their software, etc. Typically the suppliers design their systems to interface with a proprietary system on the OEM‘s dime, or they design it according to standards like SAE J1939 and follow a whole bunch of ISO standards and generate a lot of paperwork. Tesla is used to being a vertically integrated OEM and not a supplier, while other OEMs are used to buying an off the shelf kit of sorts or a custom tailored solution. Tesla‘s business model doesn’t really allow for either. There’s no money in it anyway.
Well yeah that’s exactly my point about why no other car company wants to invest in Tesla FSD at the moment. Once Tesla has a version of their software and hardware that can be at a level 4 or 5, then other companies would invest in it. Right now they would just have to deal with angry customers with brand new cars that don’t support actual FSD.
Under that theory Microsoft Windows or Google Android shouldn’t exist though…. Power of end consumer is quite strong
Ahh okay so I think I have the FSD computer but the infotainment computer is the mcu1. Thanks for helping me understand!
I had HW1, HW2, HW2.5, (upgrade) AND HW3. I also paid for FSD on the HW2 and HW3. I feel like the world's biggest sucker. Feel free to Nelson laugh at me.
difference between highest and lowest point? digital sensors have an adjustable exposure, so total dynamic range isn’t exactly relevant
Oof.
How can they license something that is always a moving target… Until Tesla can land on a hardware and software configuration where they can say ok this is exactly what is needed to do unsupervised FSD, no one is gonna license that shit.
I have HW3 paid for on 2 of my teslas and I’m meh on the whole thing. These vehicles are very tech dependent. One of ours still drives me to and from work every day with little interaction. It’s amazing. Do I wish it was fully autonomous, sure but it will come. I’m just happy with the progress it’s made this far. If they upgrade our cars at some point, great. If not, just let us transfer our FSD easily with more options since we were some of the first “adopters.”
The dual pane glass on the new cars is a huge improvement. We have an original Model 3 and getting into our friends new Model 3 is night and day if you notice those things. I come from driving BMW’s and Mercedes…the noise was the first thing I had to adjust to on the Model 3, especially at highway speeds.
Because FSD is garbage, and Tesla is an Enron equivalent time bomb that it is no longer subsidized by the US government.
Yes it's the range between the highest point and lowest point you can see - *at the same time*. Meaning e.g how much you can see in the dark parts when blinded by the sun. Human eye is many times better at this than digital cameras. Exposure doesn't enter into it.
again, if you’re referring to the rendered image on a screen, sure. but those images aren’t what the NNs are using, they’re using raw data from the sensors. it’s not cranking sensor exposure down to lower the white point
Oh, you have a Model S/X then? So for $2k you get MCU2 and AP3. This would be the same as I have in my 2019 Model 3. It is way behind MCU3 and AP4 in newer models, but better than what you have. There was a free or cheaper upgrade if you had purchased FSD, but I don't know that it's still available.
Probably others in the industry have cottoned-on to what a fraud Elon is.
I've had Tesla cars since 2017, and owned FSD since my first Tesla. I believe the vision-only approach was for the goal of licensing FSD. If any automaker can implement 360 degree video, then FSD can license to that automaker. Similarly, vision only benefits Optimus. I'm willing to bet that the other automakers are relenting with "unworkable requirements" being LIDAR or some other non-vision based sensors. Further, given how long Tesla has taken to achieve Level 3 autonomy (debatable), the makers probably don't see a rush to implement Tesla FSD.
no, but as an owner on the latest version I'd say that's mostly a policy issue than a technology issue, assuming good weather days.
Average (Tesla) carbrain https://v.redd.it/trjs7pbg893g1
>but comfort, reliability, maintainability and cost are also high priorities for other manufacturers Its the entire selling point of toyota, relaibility From what ive heared they have a problem becose evs dont really have that much stuff to break so the base for reliability has risen a lot
Every Tesla has a cabin facing camera, and every ride will have an ID tied to it. It wouldn’t be that hard to make an ML model that does a first pass on potential abuse/trashing the car and flags it for human review, and then if warranted, a large charge against their credit card (or against their security deposit, or legal charges). In the case of Airbnbs, part of the reason people are ok doing it is that Airbnb has a large insurance policy that covers damage. I imagine something like that would be available here.
The difference in dynamic range is a much smaller disadvantage than the advantage of seeing in all directions at once and always paying attention.
Tesla was at the blink of bankruptcy and losing money when they made the decision 10 years ago to put cameras on all their vehicles and not charge their customer extra for the hardware. The other automakers with billions in profits every year could have done the same. You are shortsighted if you are just looking at today. Your comment will not age well in one year when Tesla has more unsupervised Robotaxi than all other companies combined.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't known as 2.5 yet but that actually *is* the hardware 2.5
I'm not trying to argue with you but yes it actually does. It can get out of my insane mountain driveway on its own (but I usually do this part because it's terrifyingly steep and my neighbors would think I was insane), but once I get on the road I press the button and relax. It does this in insane conditions, even extreme snow. It gets me to the city and back fully autonomously.
Yeah only cheap relative to the competition. But at the time I bought it, with the 7k tax credit, \~40k was insane for the value of the m3p compared to its direct competition. The rwd model 3 or model y were even more stark. The battery replacements are 10k now I heard? But haven't looked myself.
Mine can't even tell the difference between route signs and speed limit signs so it slams on the brakes in the middle of the highway and tries to merge into the middle of other cars so maybe mine is just dumb as shit.
It's terrible at signs I'll give you that. But that does feel solveable given that existing LLMs can do it fairly easily. Each version has its quirks, 14.1.4 and 14.1.7 were a pleasure, but I have yet to try 14.2 very much. Which version are you referring to?
The average taxi rives ~127 miles per day. Just 1,000 robotaxis (about 40% of Waymo's fleet size) would cover 127,000 miles per day. As an owner on the latest version, can you attest that in good weather you can drive 127,000 miles without ever needing to interact with the controls at all? It's a rhetorical question of course...I'm just pointing out that anecdotes are mostly useless here. An individual can have flawless, zero-intervention drives for weeks on a system that is still 10x away from ready for at-scale deployment. According to the best crowdsourced data (https://teslafsdtracker.com/Main) it looks like v14 is a MASSIVE improvement, with over 4,000 city miles per "critical" disengagement. Which is about 2-3 orders of magnitude from where it needs to be to deploy 1,000+ cars without them running into a "critical DE" scenario at least once a day.
No. Hardware 2 shipped in late 2016. This was promised to allow for FSD, with full L5 autonomy. 2.5 was shipped in 2017 to add redundancy to the AP computers, and added some other minor functionality like dashcam, etc. But this was also promised to achieve full autonomy. My point is, Tesla is 0/4 on delivering FSD on hardware they said could do it. So why would you believe 4th time is the charm? Or the 5th? Or the 8th? They know what full autonomy looks like, but they’re only guessing on what it’s going to take to actually deliver it. And their guessing is shit so far.
that's correct. and then you mentioned a bunch of other unrelated businesses as for motional "suspended it's business"... are you saying they've suspended their whole business?
\> Your comment will not age well in one year when Tesla has more unsupervised Robotaxi than all other companies combined. Is one year Elon time or real world time?
\> can you show me what unsupervised solutions exist with only a single $300 lidar sensor missing the point entirely, but okay. can you show me what unsupervised solutions exist without lidar? And, this is early in the industry. Waymo adopts many more sensors than they need. \> how much does waymo’s sensor suite cost again? 5th gen started at around $40k, dropped to $9k. 6th gen is estimated to cost around $5k
Tell that to the guy that got decapitated in his model S that darted underneath a semi
You posted a lot, and I've already noticed many glaring falsehoods and misconceptions about the underlying technologies involved. \> but Waymo is definitely not an end to end neural network so what? only one company in the industry thinks this is necessary and the rest refuse to adopt that - including companies and experts who have unsupervised solutions on the road. it is likely that an end-to-end NN will get you most of the way but that it will have serious downsides in the long term - replication, stability, real time ruleset modifications. \> I was admittedly lax in my description, but Waymo is definitely not an end to end neural network. Some things, like the handling of traffic lights, are entirely handled in code. not true \> The planner is a hybrid system where Waymo themselves have said that the bar for replacing it with a purely machine-learned system is very high. That's fine \> They are using neural networks for things like object detection and classification. AIUI most (if not all) of the safety critical behaviour is hand coded. your "AIUI" is incorrect. it is not. they run a second safety model and internally consider interventions from it to be on the same order as a crash
👆ha ha
I'm not sure what version it has, since i only occasionally subscribe to FSD to see how it's coming along. Looks like my last subscription expired last December. I remember the last time I turned it on, because it had done a reasonably good job driving in uncomplicated situations, but then it took a curve on a cloverleaf overpass fifty feet in the air insanely fast and almost got into a crash trying to merge at speed into a line of traffic that was moving slower than I was - both of these happened in one day on one drive and I noped out after that. As long as I'm the one that's going to go to prison if it kills someone, it's way, way too reckless for my comfort. Maybe it's gotten significant better since then, but i was pretty shook after that drive.
can i see your sources on waymo’s self driving system only costing $5,000 in hardware
> You posted a lot, and I've already noticed many glaring falsehoods and misconceptions about the underlying technologies involved. This is a discussion forum, and just stating I'm wrong doesn't make it so. It's incumbent upon you to evidence your claim and to provide reasoned debate. If you can convince me i'm wrong, preferably with good evidence, then I'm happy to change my mind. Just telling me I'm wrong isn't convincing or compelling. > so what? So it's a very different approach, and time will tell which is the better one. Neural networks are very good at interpolation, so taking their existing training and applying it to a new but relate situation. Code tends to be more brittle, it requires a human to reason the variability in a given situation (for example) and to accommodate for that variability within the coding. If a new situation puts the car's program out of bounds then that programming breaks down (see the current investigation into Waymo for their handling of school busses as an example). Training a neural network requires a lot of good quality training data - that in itself can be a huge problem to overcome, but is one where Tesla can leverage their existing resources to provide a competitive advantage. I believe this is why there has been so much progress from Tesla over the last year or so. It's obviously taken a lot longer than planned, and they started out going down the same path as Waymo with a more code driven approach. it's since they switched to the NN approach that their progress has really accelerated. > not true I'm going by a direct quote from Waymo in a Forbes interview, so unless you can provide more up to date information you're wrong on this. > your "AIUI" is incorrect. it is not. they run a second safety model and internally consider interventions from it to be on the same order as a crash Again I'm going by what Waymo themselves have said. That same interview said that the safety critical behaviour is coded. I note you've completely ignored the stats around the number of crashes. But I'll add another stat - based on the number of miles covered by Waymo and Tesla FSD in the last year, Waymos are getting involved in incidents 6 times more frequently based on the incident statistics. Now there could be some variation in the environments driven, how incidents are classified and reported, etc. but I do find that interesting in itself.
That camera has lots it can’t see.
its COMPLETELY FALSE AND MISLEADING to say what you said. ***"And at this point Tesla doesn’t know what hardware configuration actual FSD will use. Tesla didn’t even start shipping hardware 4 cars until 25 months ago, now everyone who has even just a two year old Tesla is unable to use the most current version of FSD and it sounds like HW4 won’t even be the right hardware."*** THIS IS A FALSE STATEMENT. Are you posting this to be a troll. are you a short seller? not informed? seriously.... HW4 with FSD14 - according to Tesla - will be safer than a human driver. Honest question - have you been in a HW4 vehicle with 14.2 this month? if not, then go try one. and no one who has not experienced this (which unfortunately seems to be 99% of those who post here), is not being honest and does not understand the reality of where we are at right now this month - November 2025. the Robotaxi will use HW5 and be more next level - that part is VERY CLEAR. It has the bumper camera as the 2025 Model Y is - that's the latest update. And Elon and others at Tesla have spoken at LENGTH about AI5 and AI6 chips being designed. For anyone who is not a troll and interested in an honest discussion...it's quite clear that this 5 chip will be in the Robotaxi that will be in production next year in 2026. In Q1 it appears they will do a test run and then likely scale to full production at the end of the year, likely Q4 2026. That's the very public roadmap.
How’s the basic autopilot?
i don't see what counts as critical disengagement on that site - seems like it's mostly lane changes / routing. that matches my experience.
One year from today.
I have Pro 2, which is the latest and greatest. It reminds me of AP1. Solid on freeways. Good on highways. Mostly useless on city streets.
Yeah I don’t use those systems off highway anyway. They’re not designed for that.
The help tells you: https://teslafsdtracker.com/help >Categories of Disengagements: > >Critical: Safety Issue (Avoid accident, taking red light/stop >sign, wrong side of the road, unsafe action). NOTE: These are >colored in red in the Top Causations for Disengagements chart on >the main dashboard. >Non-Critical: Non-Safety Issue (Wrong lane, driver courtesy, merge issue) So "critical DE" is anything that would cause a safety issue. non-critical DE is lane changes/routing. Conservatively, you would want your fleet to go more than a day with no critical DEs across your entire fleet - so you'd want over 100k miles per "critical DE" to field a fleet of 1,000 cars. If you had that, you could count on, roughly once per day on average, someone else having to act (swerve, slam on breaks, jump out of the way, etc) to avoid an accident your robotaxi would otherwise cause. At Tesla's current rate, an individual driver might go a few thousand miles--weeks!--without such a disengagement, but a THOUSAND drivers wouldn't go an hour.
Calm down dude I can hear you yelling through the internet. I am not a troll, I’ve been following Tesla for about six years now and have owned two of them. As you stated, HW5 is going to be a big jump and probably the one that has appropriate power for what the car needs to do. HW5 has not shipped yet and been used on tens of thousands of cars for millions of miles yet. Until that happens, why would any legacy automotive company want to get involved with FSD? Tesla has not released a robotaxi than can just be dropped anywhere and work yet so there’s no knowing what the final hardware configuration will be, roadmap or not. Tesla never thought they needed a front bumper camera and now all cars ship with them. There are plenty of unknown unknowns at this point and again, a legacy CEO probably doesn’t want to commit to anything, especially with Elon “two weeks” Musk until there is a proven track record of reliability and safety.
lol I'm not yelling. HW5 is just the next generation chip - the sensor configuration won't change so its minor change to 2025 model Y. I'm not sure what question you are really asking...will other companies use it? well if robotaxi actually works and gets to 25 to 50 cents a mile, many of us will stop buying cars. totally fine to be skeptical of Elon. but you know..you didn't answer my question - have you been in HW with FSD v14.2?
It’s using the same metric, miles per accident. It’s agnostic to whether it’s highway or city driving. Unless you have something showing otherwise the face value is that it’s simply just miles. Their methodology and background is added on the bottom of that page including how US average is calculated.
Because waymo isn't their competition lol.. Tesla is. Someone driving a Toyota with Tesla FSD would say "why dont I just buy a Tesla then?" but they cant say that about a waymo.
Is that your basis for thinking HW4 won’t be good enough? Because.. they haven’t been upgrading HW3 cars to HW4? I don’t really follow that logic.
It's true, EVs have an advantage on reliability due to simplicity which is one of the main reasons I bought a model 3, but having owned and driven Toyotas and other brands plenty, I will say Toyota and many other brands still have the advantage on comfort. Also the mechanical controls feel a lot more intuitive and comfortable than the button and touch controls of a Tesla when it comes to manual driving
What other manufacturer promises that your car comes with hardware that's capable of something and then does nothing when that hardware isn't capable? I think this should be treated like a warranty. A warranty is a promise, it promises that parts will work for a certain amount of time and if not they will replace it for free. Well they promised hardware that will eventually work with FSD, and the hardware doesn't work as promised, so Tesla should make it right and replace the hardware for free.
It's also comparing against all cars, including 20 year old vehicles with not even relatively simple features like blind spot direction and backup cameras. It's no surprise that modern cars in general are safer because they have more safety features standard. For a real comparison you need to at least compare to similar vehicles such as model year and price, more modern and more expensive cars usually have better safety features.
Most spiders have 8 eyes, that doesn't make them good at full self driving. The eyes and brain in a human are very different than the cameras and computer in a Tesla or the eyes and brain of a spider.
Yeah, that is what you have to do if you want to be a supplier. Or you have to be so good, that others will cater to you and you don't have to cater to them. Which you probably know as someone working in their driving assistance systems development, that you are not.
Makes sense. Steve Jobs once said if the data and anecdote don’t match, the data is usually at fault. But it’s compelling that you suggest an individual user could go a long time without issues. I wonder if camera blinded, or removing seat belt during FSD count as critical disengagements. Both have happened to me a few times and the car really freaks out with take over in big red text. But they aren’t exactly what I would call safety issues.
Real Talk. I come to you tomorrow and say I'll rent out your car for about 2$ / hour so another person can ride it as a taxi. Would you? Because I sure as hell wouldn't. And 2$/hour is a realistic price for it because you can simply rent a car for 20$/day from a car rental company. There's a reason why car sharing really isn't really a significant market.
Model Y is literally the most popular car in the markets it’s available at. Why would they exist a money making business?
Vision is doing really good right now and Waymo cut down on amount of lidar and radar tech last I heard. Waymo might slowly switch to vision as well.
Tesla uses more than one camera, so glare in the front camera can be offset. Much better than humans can see. I have been using FSD ever since their beta days. The improvements are real and much better every release. Kool aid or not, I just want something that drives me keeping me refreshed for my meeting or my vacation after a long drive. I can’t say the same with manual driving. I use FSD every day, for $99 it is steal for me - safety and hassle free. People should just test drive it if they haven’t experienced it yet.
HW4, aka AI4, sure looks like it’s doing fine. The car drives itself. Have you been watching? No reason to doubt it at this point. Zero-intervention drives are the norm now.
Because they would make a ton more on licensing FSD without the headache and I’m sure that the other car manufacturers would want them to cease their car business. I believe that Tesla wants to be a software company and get out of the hardware business.
I bought our MY23 in April 23 and picked it up first week of May. HW3. Heavily screwed here.
yeah but that's the point, if 80% of car accidents in parking lots, and FSD is never engaged in those situations then the data is going to SKU to lower rates for Tesla. To look at this from a different perspective, it I compared crashes / mile of cars traveling at less then 45 MPH vs crashes per traveling over 45 MPH It would APPEAR to be safer to drive around at 50 MPH then 25 with this methodology
Each camera points in a different direction. There is no redundancy. I hear you, but let’s call a spade a spade.
> the vast majority of other EVs struggle with the user experience due to the short cables You are going to need to provide *some* proof of this claim.
Next time if you are trying to make a point, don't use unrealistic numbers. 20 years? Not even close...
How are they fucked exactly?
Going forward, if you want to be in the Auto business, you're going to need to sell an EV with Lvl 5 ADAS (FSD). The traditional manufacturers think they have WAY more time to pull this rabbit out of the hat than they actually do.
I agree. I misunderstood that you were referring to Tesla :-).
Ahh I see. Glad I could clear that up then.
Seat belt would be user error, but camera blinded is the car/system's fault. That is, it's a "I can't drive anymore take over right now!" moment that could absolutely cause an accident and has everything to do with hardware/software and nothing to do with the people in the car. You have to multiply the rate at which a single car experiences a critical safety disengagement by the number of cars in the fleet and the number of hours they drive per day.
The issue is that they are betting on achieving FSD *safely* using only CAMERAS when everyone else is using radar and lidar to augment the mapping used to avoid hitting pedestrians... Because camera visuals alone have a 3% failure rate of identifying a pedestrian or other object to avoid running over it. *Why the hell would they do that?* Money. It's very expensive to add the radar and lidar sensors. They were betting from a business perspective on consumers overpaying for a less robustly supported feature (self driving) on a "cheaper" car (they could ask less money by not including the expensive sensors and offer a similar product for a lower price since all the competition wouldn't be 'brave enough to risk lawsuits') Don't believe me? That's fine. Go watch the recorded interviews with Musk aimed at investors. Or read some of the published white papers on the technology. Or pursue perusing some of the investor reports published by the company... I encourage you to seek out your own trusted sources of information and vet them for legitimacy.
I don't disagree that camera blinded is a problem that needs to be solved before this can go wide, but I'm not sure it's a critical disengagement for the sake of your above comments. For me it happens in extremely predictable times - when there is no external lighting on the side of a country road, when we drive into the sun with the sun at a 30 degree angle in the sky, and in heavy rain conditions. It never feels like I'm in danger when it tells me to take over. So if those make up the 4000 city miles statistic, I do think they could last longer.
I don’t see how anyone can take anything he says seriously. He’s constantly over promised and under delivered. If I were a “legacy” automaker I’d rather develop my own “full self driving” with better and more reliable technology.
Go in any other EV subreddit other than Tesla to see the stories. You can’t be in THAT much of a bubble? https://www.reddit.com/r/F150Lightning/s/VWtgmPHUA2 https://www.reddit.com/r/Rivian/s/6X9zMKsEjn
I would hope so! But it's been a problem for years and it still is. And as you said, it has to be solved before they can go wide. It doesn't matter what's causing the "critical disengagements" only that, if it's not human error, it needs to get down to about 1/100th of where they are no in order to deploy the system widely with no safety humans. The point is, Telsa's best tech so far is about 100x below the threshold to put even 1000 cars on the roads with no safety person. And to bring it back home to the point of the original post--what competing automaker is gonna pay Tesla for hardware and software STILL locked at Level 2 after all this time, and two orders of magnitude away from removing the human?
I mean, I'm paying to subscribe to it. It's worth enough where i wouldn't buy a non-tesla at this point. It's a better driver than me except when it's too sunny or rainy. So, if they want to attract people that want better ADAS or a safer car, they sure should!
lol no, that’s not going to be the clearing price of this stuff. Just depreciation is higher than that on a car that’s being actively used, and on-demand rental is only done on cars actually being used for that time. Daily rentals sit most of the time, gas is not included, and they tend to be shitty models for the lowest tier pricing, not Teslas with FSD. It’s wildly different economics. Also, $20/day isn’t a price I’ve seen at eg Enterprise anytime in the past many years, that’s cherry-picking. Usually it’s closer to $40, and the mutiplier between daily and hourly rentals is going to be at least 5x the hourly rate, so wild guess, but I’d say you’re looking at at least $10/hr.
I fully support them doing something for purchasers.
He is just lying
maybe because he's been overhyping it for a decade now?
I know there are issues (which Tesla is addressing with longer cables), but you wrote that 'the vast majority" of other EVs struggle. Where are you getting the vast majority part? Also, stop talking down to someone who asks a question. Don't start with putting others in bubbles.
Ok, even if rental is $48/day for an easy math (it isn't). Why would someone pay you 10$/hour if they can rent a car for 48$/day and then make 100% profit by renting it as a robotaxi for 4$/hour? For some reason you assume that you'll get the profit of the driver, but if the driver is eliminated the price of the taxi will go down. Also you are assuming that you'll be competing with people who need to make a profit. And not suckers that bought a car for more than they could afford, are underwater on it, and now will accept strangers riding in them just to be able to pay the monthly lease. Anyway, you didn't answer my question. Would _you_ rent out your expensive car with FSD to make extra 2$-4$ an hour?
Uhhh you are talking down to someone and you are not asking a question. You are stating that I need “proof” of my claim which was a fact I stated. I then provided two links of proof each of which have dozens of comments. I can go in all the other EV subreddits and do the same exact thing if you need even more proof. Or you can do your own basic research and see that these issues are widespread. Also it’s not just the cables. Tesla has been horribly late with 800v superchargers. The very first one is now finally up and running in Redwood City California. It’s weird since their own Cybertruck can charge at 800v so they charge faster on other chargers. Now there is an issue now that Tesla has V2, V3, V3.5 and true V4 chargers out there. Charging at a supercharger is a major hassle since you have to figure out which one it is. Also payment is via the Tesla app even though most V3.5 have both magic dock, screens and credit card readers they are rarely enabled??? That makes zero sense.
It doesn't even work properly (no self driving does). Why would another company license an incomplete product?
You forget all the deadly accidents too. Ontop of that its being connected to Elon is toxic as hell.
That arbitrage you’re imagining doesn’t exist, your contract with any rental agency has a bunch of terms about that (you can’t use one as a 24 hour taxi, and they generally have mileage limits), and they can/will hit you with a very large charge when they find out you’re doing that. And I’m not assuming that this is the driver’s share, the going rate for a car with driver is currently a lot higher than $10/hr in the first world. I just looked on Zipcar, I can get one for the next hour for $29, which I’ll have to drive myself. But no, I would not rent out my car for that price which you made up and won’t be the market price, so the whole thing is a straw man argument. But then, I was never interested in renting out my car at $20/hr either. Edit: I’m arguing from the perspective of the US/Western Europe. If you live in a place with a very different cost of living or culture, then maybe you’re correct there.
Fool me once...
Yeah, 100% shame on me. No excuses.
(One of those upvotes is from me)
Given that Waymo seems to be the only one with full self driving that seems a very reasonable decision.
> That arbitrage you’re imagining doesn’t exist Lol. Yes it fucking does already, there are firms specialized in renting cars to Uber drivers. If you think it'll take them longer than a second to start renting into self-driving fleets you're more naive than 5 year old. > the going rate for a car with driver is currently a lot higher than $10/hr in the first world Sure, but it won't be that high for a car without a driver once those become popular. Also remember taxes, platform fees, maintanance fees, cleaning fees. Car owner will get maybe half of what customer pays - just like with Uber. > But no, I would not rent out my car for that price which you made up and won’t be the market price, so the whole thing is a straw man argument. But then, I was never interested in renting out my car at $20/hr either. Finally. So you wouldn't even for 20$/h. Why do you think others would.
lol you will lose your ass on that purchase rodlmao
Love my FSD it’s fucking amazing
I would argue it’s novel. Until it can be unsupervised, what’s the point? You have to pay attention and be ready to take over at any time, so it’s not like you can do other things. You’re babysitting it. Tesla should be paying you for using FSD as a software tester, but you’re the sucker paying them to test their code.
I’ve lost my ass on every EV I’ve owned. I don’t expect any kind of good ROI… I expect a good car. And Tesla is not delivering good cars.
Actually it’s very relaxing and a non stressful drive. Sounds like you have never let it drive for you .
Actually it’s not. It’s relaxing to drive on the highway… but most systems are at this point. GM, Ford, Lucid… they all have as-good or better highway lane keeping than Tesla does at this point. Around town is still a shit show. Don’t believe me? Look at how many accidents the robotaxis are having in Austin. https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/n6BxyfcJnj
We have a 2.5 and a 4, both fully paid for. Feel pretty much exactly the same way.
By developing your own you mean outsource it to one of their tier 1 suppliers because none of them have the beginnings of internal capabilities to do it.
I think the big problem with legacy auto makers is that, when they ship a car, they expect the tech in it to be working. Elon is perfectly happy with “we’ll sell it to you today, and maybe get something working someday”. Yes, I bought FSD in 2018, and no, it’s nowhere near what was promised.
...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
I have both a HW3 and HW4. the newer "mad max" mode on HW4 is what FSD should be! It is so sad that HW3 doesn't have mad max mode.
You are massively underinformed.
I had it on hurry last night and it would not drive over 65 unless I pushed the pedal. There was no weather, it was just night, so much worse than just using autopilot.
Yes, the “Elon is so much smarter than all of us” argument.
Humans only use cameras (eyes) to drive. Cameras will be enough.
mad max mode drives at a much higher speed limit, it easily hit 80+ and changes lanes and even passes on the right. I can see myself getting pulled over using it. FSD went way down hill with the introduction of speed profiles. hurry, chill, standard is a joke. If i wanted to drive 5 miles under the speed limit, I would drive a Prius. I paid the full 15K for FSD and it works worst than autopilot which actually hits the max set speed all the time for me.
What I love about autopilot is the very strict rules it follows. Stay in lane, don’t hit car in front of you, go max speed limit if possible.
There is this unrealistic expectation that FSD should work in extreme conditions. It shouldn't, nobody should be outside in a blizzard, cyclone, flooding, etc... The idea that FSD can make it safe for you to be taken to Starbucks in extreme conditions is false, especially for robotaxi where there is liability on the operator to keep you safe, no amount of radar or lidar will make that liability go away. I don't know of any surface RPT that doesn't get stopped or delayed due to weather.
"unworkable requirements for Tesla" So, like, long term support and future proof hardware? Stuff that any reasonable car company would want?
This can be mitigated with a solid agreement .. the legacy players can say you need to freeze costs for x number of years and never raise them more then x% , that's an executive negotiation .... Maybe that's why Tesla said no one wants to license it onTeskas terms.
Tesla is level 2 per even their own acknowledgement. Only one manufacturer has made a production car that is level 3 and that's Mercedes.
I can't speak for the other person, but I think the biggest hint is that both HW5 (TSMC) *and* HW6 (Samsung) are already in the works.
Well of course they’re just going to keep improving it. Also these chips are going to be used in the bots too.
they'vemade big claims before, and it seems like they're always pushing the timeline back It's frustrating to see so much hype without concrete results.
Elon promised a coast-to-coast autopilot drive with zero interventions… in 2017. They still haven’t achieved this.
It is insane that you are getting negged.
Exactly. Facts don't work when people have EDS
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