Elon: "We haven’t shown Optimus V3 yet. It is sublime. The second two images are V2 and V2.5."

**I am a bot. This is a friendly reminder that unwelcoming toxic/griefing/pessimistic sniping comments that are not on topic and don’t move the discussion forward will be removed. A ban will be issued if necessary. Consider this before commenting. Report posts or comments that violate the [Rules](https://www.reddit.com/mod/teslamotors/rules/). Thank you.** If you are unable to find it, use the link to it. We are not a support sub, please make sure to use the proper resources if you have questions: [Official Tesla Support](https://www.tesla.com/support), [r/TeslaLounge](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/) personal content | [Discord Live Chat](https://discord.gg/tesla) for anything. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/teslamotors) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Can't wait for v3

Man, I don't know what some people expect from Grok. Do they think he's clairvoyant or something? [https://x.com/grok/status/1964570719578444101](https://x.com/grok/status/1964570719578444101)

I wish they'd ditch this gold color - not a fan of it.

If tesla would only rent out optimus we could hold much better control of the product and in the long term make way more money. think about it

Misleading photo. Is the look of Optimus only marginally department on the insides? Rocket engine above is all inides to be seen and everyone can judge progressing simplicity. Optimus is just a bunch of servos and some sensors. It's all on software and absolutely not locally computed on the spot in Optimus head or belly. Like ppl think. It will always be dependent on wifi or any other connection. Seeing how "good" Tesla is with FSD after so many years and try and error, and error and error... Car driving by itself on the road is super simple in comparison to Optimus existing in human spaces. And yet simple driving is where Tesla and it's FSD fail miserably. Thinking about walking and all obstacles, environments, amount of tasks humans can do, flexibility. No, We won't see terminator type of robots working independently from some sort of central computer.

Oh yeah. White looks elegant, futuristic and modern

Still no go to market strategy for it

Looks like [Aibo from 1999](https://robotsguide.com/robots/aibo)

would be cool if they focused on building new and innovative cars and/or making my car do the things that they promised it would be able to do a decade ago

Ditch the robots and get volume shipments for the Semi going.

the semi factory is getting build, and i don't see how ditching the robots would speed it up

Just one more year for FSD guys. Just one more year. Just give me one more year and it's going to self drive guys. We're so close just give me the one more year.

You really think they aren’t doing both lol

“ Simple driving is where Tesla and it’s FSD fail miserably“ What are you smoking, man? Do you even use the tech? Are you stuck on old hardware? I just had FSD drive me two hours, through everything, countryside to urban sprawl, at night, in a downpour. FSD is amazing.

In fairness, cars do drive a lot quicker than a robot walks. So I could see it being not too much harder

Put a price tag on it. Done.

He keeps saying $30K but that won't be at launch, if ever. This is Tesla/Elon after all. If they do sell it I expect $50K. Would probably do OK for some manufacturing purposes but no mere mortal is gonna buy that to mow the lawn or take out the trash. Just another Elon distraction

How do you know that? Have you been to every internal meeting with the executives? Are you clairvoyant?

Hmmm... Let's say it is 50k. And let's say it holds for around 10 years. That would be 5k a year for someone to literally do whatever you want. If it can actually do half the stuff everyone hopes and expects, 5k a year is \*cheap\*. My wife and I are not rich, but I would grab one in an instant. Keep the house clean. Take care of the cat litter. Make dinner. Clean up afterwards. Now, if you don't think it will be able to do those things, that's a different story. But if it can, then even 50k is going to sell faster than they can make them.

1. Determine market size for each. 2. Realize you are completely wrong. 3. Come back and thank me :-)

Optimus has a modified FSD computer in its torso. The training data is generated using the same architecture as FSD. Speech recognition is done using Grok via cellular communication. Control is also done using Grok, which assigns a target to the FSD, and Grok also controls the limbs. There's a good video of an engineer using ChatGPT to fire a machine gun at targets using only voice applications. We'll wait and see what actually works, or if it's all just wishful thinking.

100% A big issue will be it doing what's advertised of course. Tesla cars are still great cars without FSD. Optimus is useless without the autonomous software being right.

Making dinner imo would be wild lol.

Have you watched the videos of it? It’s not fast or adept at anything. Maybe it could bring a laundry basket upstairs but it looks a couple decades away from being able to put the clothes away.

The improvisational house hold tasks are dramatically harder than driving, with less defined rules. "Do my laundry" involves finding where the laundry hampers are, searching for discarded clothes from my kid, sorting them by type, loading the machine, folding, and putting away. That requires manipulation of flexible objects (very hard) and memory of where all that is in my house.

And Optimus is 100% dependent on that software to be a viable product. Tesla cars are at least great cars without FSD.

Same man, everyone else here is such a downer. Who else is making a game changing robot for the masses?

Until you find out it’s being remotely monitored at Tesla HQ and is recording everything going on in your household. This is a terrible idea.

I’m not sure your experience with robotics in the house. 1. Keep the house clean, sure. I would expect it could handle clothes and objects in floors and put them somewhere. But I’m also not that lazy, my floors are pretty clean so my robotic vacuum and mop can get around without getting stuck. 2. Cat litter/dog waste: plausible. A lot of the tasks are shown moving items from one location to another. I’d much rather spend the $1000 on robotic litter box. I empty mine every two weeks. 3. Cooking: Not a chance. There’s no way it’ll be dexterous enough, or fast enough, to handle a task like cooking. 4. Putting groceries away, likely. 5. Stacking or unstacking the dishwasher, also likely. 6. Moving laundry from washer to dryer to hamper. Folding it and putting it away. 7. I think a common use for me would be asking the humanoid robot to check my cupboards and fridge for photos if I run to the store without making a list. Then I can shop based on the photo’s it sends me.

Well definitely not Tesla. There will be dozens for sale cheaper than the Tesla robot will ever be before the Tesla will be for sale “for the masses”. You can literally buy a Unitree robot right now.

And just one more year until the 2020 roadster is available, I mean it this time!!

Boston Dynamics, unitree, Ameca, 1X, Figure AI, to name a few.

Do y'all honestly believe unsupervised FSD is never coming out? Why?

8. Beer retrieval

None of what you said is true 😂😂😂

Lmao, have you worked with robots? No way this thing lasts more than 5, maybe 2 give or take

This statement will look insanely dumb in 3 years.

This is fair; with that said, if you ask a person to do some of the steps (like putting all the laundry in one basket or even sorted within multiple compartments, which isn’t hard) you can simplify and still provide something with a lot of value. I’ve seen also that dexterous flexible object manipulation is considered out of reach right now. That’s a little surprising to me, but maybe that gets resolved the next few years, or maybe the first use case is more like dishes than laundry.

Because it has been publicly promised to be delivered by EOY since 2018? Only serious marks still believe it at this point.

This is generally why I think Optimus will be for mfg (more defined repeated tasks) versus household for at least 8-10 years. Current neural nets aren't really 'intelligent' in terms of quickly learning new tasks.

Yet Optimus requires much lower accuracy, people don't die if it folds the clothes wrong.

[deleted]

U/bot-sleuth-bot

Almost like it’s in development or something. FSD made huge leaps in just the last two years. Anyone who thinks it’ll take decades doesn’t understand how technology accelerates.

It only took what 400% longer than estimated to get to its current not finished state…

Optimus, breaking through a wall on a rampage brought on by a minor AI glitch: “Are you sure about that?” Edit: /j

Tell that to my previous clothes folder that could never fold it the way I wanted it.

So if I don’t habe FSD, I can just put Optimus behind the wheel, right? Right?

It’s very common to have an AI model that is trained on an absolutely giant computer and then optimized and run on a relatively small one… that’s the way FSD works, and even the LLMs are applying way more processing power to training their models every once in a while than to processing your query in near real time. To make the analogy to FSD…. All the “intelligence” comes from pulling what cars have seen, the actions of drivers, and the result of the actions into a training model on a giant supercomputer (NOT in real time). Then the model is optimized and sent to your car, and it’s the car computer, not the supercomputer, that makes the driving decisions in real time. There is no “live WiFi connection” back to the supercomputer for decision help. It’s like developing vs. running a video game.

There's been enough progress I'm starting to get optimistic it'll come out within 10 years, after a few more hardware iterations.

EV cars is a blue ocean play Optimus is a blue ocean play All of us are just funding his mission for humans to be a multi-planet species. Worrying whether Optimus is a $30K or $50K gadget is such a NPC move. If they don’t sell at $50K and he needs more data points to speed up the AI learning, they’ll make adjustments so he can get what he needs.

Yes, that’s exactly how “setting the foundation” works. Took forever to figure out flight, and within 65 years, space.

If you're going to be this pathetic, at least do it correctly: it needs a lower case u.

You may have missed the part where Optimus is mechanically not that strong, weaker than an adult. It could be banging on walls all day with nearly no damage. Even if it does damage something, it would be annoying but unlikely to be safety critical.

Finally found a positive comment.

I’d say any step closer to looking like C-3PO is a plus for me. I’d they could make a similar voice + mannerisms, they can take my money!

Same claims were being made for HW 2.5, then 3. It's like Zeno's arrow.

Sorry, I should’ve added a “/j” tag.

Not saying it won’t happen, just won’t happen on an Elon timeline.

u/bot-sleuth-bot

- 2017

Analyzing user profile... Time between account creation and oldest post is greater than 5 years. Suspicion Quotient: 0.15 This account exhibits one or two minor traits commonly found in karma farming bots. While it's possible that u/Doudelidou25 is a bot, it's very unlikely. ^(I am a bot. This action was performed automatically. Check my profile for more information.)

womp womp

Best we can do is one silver leg

Unlike in 2018, we have the software now and it works pretty darn well.

You used the colon incorrectly and it's *lowercase. bad bot.

Similarly I saw a small driving drone (looked like an RC car), told to drive to a yellow house, wait some time interval, drive a further number of feet, go to a house with a different description...etc.

my favorite part is where it said you do bot stuff xD I would shudder at the prospect of a minor association with karma farming bots

Wouldn't be kaput though... would just need some replacements

I'm amazed that your deep investigative skills haven't yet turned up I'm not a native english speaker, as made quite obvious in my posting history. Perhaps you should stop delegating your smartass posting attempts to AI and make a serious attempt at it. Just like your driving, funnily enough :)

Well, I bought a car with fsd, as for smoking: elon himself promised me and hundreds of thousands others Full Self Driving. message to future Optimus owners: wait couple of years (15 at least) and many many iterations before it will be 10% of what's promised it can do now.

"Cooking: Not a chance" False. It will definitely cook and it is currently being trained to do so.

It does, but it is nowhere near unsupervised. As long as it shits the bed on various edge cases, it can't be. That's what unsupervised means. Getting close enough is not good enough for that, even though it's a definitive step forward.

Anything positive to say? You're really commenting on the \*color\* of the thing?

Do you not know what a quotient is? Here, let's have some fun: /u/bot-sleuth-bot

Just buy a dedicated mower robot right now. I have had one of these for 15 years and it has been fantastic. Works pretty much like a roomba. Here is a recent article to get you started with what's available: https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-best-robot-lawn-mowers

Analyzing user profile... Suspicion Quotient: 0.00 This account is not exhibiting any of the traits found in a **typical** karma farming bot. It is extremely likely that u/CivicDisobedience is a human. Dev note: I have noticed that some bots are deliberately evading my checks. I'm a solo dev and do not have the facilities to win this arms race. I have a permanent solution in mind, but it will take time. In the meantime, if this low score is a mistake, report the account in question to r/BotBouncer, as this bot interfaces with their database. In addition, if you'd like to help me make my permanent solution, read [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/user/bot-sleuth-bot/comments/1maop2p/comment/n5hefvn/) and maybe some of the other posts on my profile. Any support is appreciated. ^(I am a bot. This action was performed automatically. Check my profile for more information.)

They'll probably still be working on the Semi in 3 years. This robot has no market. Boston Dynamics already figured this out, Tesla will too

My condolences. But you learned an important lesson: don't buy tech based on future promises. But I do feel for ya. Hopefully Tesla makes it right. I understand why you're salty.

Have you ever considered maybe you’re focused on the wrong thing? A visionary’s job isn’t to balance the books or manage Gantt charts - it’s to set “impossible” goals so the team shoots further than they thought possible. He’s not the CFO. He’s not the COO. He’s not a project manager. His literal job is to dream, inspire, and push. So yeah, he misses deadlines. But his companies are still *decades* ahead of their competition. Congrats if you mowed your lawn on schedule or fixed the leaky faucet in six months instead of two years. His mission is to build rockets, EVs and AI/robot breakthroughs so we can be an interplanetary species. I don't think he cares if some people choose to spend that same amount of time heckling from the sidelines while accomplishing absolutely nothing (of the same scale) on their own.

WTF are you smoking? FSD runs circles around any other offering in the market today. And that's using just cameras. It can do most of the driving, and frankly, in many cases door to door. And I am talking about a busy city like Toronto. Is FSD "TRULY" self-driving? No, because it's supervised. But what it does is so absolutely bonkers good, you have to be a moron to say otherwise.

Just 'cause Elon said it doesn't make it true. We all know that by now. Optimus will definitely be capable of doing damage.

your logic doesn't logic.

it’s such a carnie show. Will cars eventually have the technology to self drive unsupervised yes. Will it be any of the vehicles Tesla has already sold? I’d strongly bet no, that no currently commercially purchased consumer Tesla will ever fully self drive unsupervised.

You're dealing with a company that's trying to do what's never been done before, on the aboslute edge of science. You're frankly stupid if you believe all the dates. You cannot decide to not use your own brain and judgment, and then blame someone else. Now, I do think there's a case for Tesla to pay back for FSD, and a court should order it, but beyond that, caveat emptor.

Trust me bro

Yeah it's going to weigh around the same as an adult, if not more. Metal, batteries, and electronics are more dense than human tissue.

Yeah it’ll do all that (*supervised)

if you actually use FSD you would know v13 has come a long way in just a year. Newer version is used in Robotaxi that's already driving autonomously. V14 will be another level. Tesla is the only company that's close to solve generalized autonomous driving.

Call me paranoid but I’m not sure I want these things in my house videoing everything I do or extracting everything that’s happening in my house with AI.

They have Robotaxi running around with HW4 and front camera. It's a software problem, not hardware. V14 will be the next level.

One integer overflow and your robot turns into murderbot

And elon will be like “it’s ok guys we fixed it and here is the proof” if gonnaMurderPeople { dont() }

Yes, and this has been what has been said many years. It's always the next release that's going to be be the big game changer. The Robotaxi launch is still tiny, still not unsupervised. I stand by my statement, I will be incredibly incredibly surprised if any Tesla that a consumer has purchased as of right now (3/S/Y/X) will ever be able to fully self drive unsupervised. And certainly if they do they'll require modification on top of their current spec. But yes, I'm sure V14 will be the exponential leap that makes it all possible, just like we said about V13, and V12... etc.

I think, ultimately, they plan to market it as a domestic robot: household stuff like cooking, cleaning, laundry. But it's nowhere near that point yet, and no robot currently is, especially in the chaotic environment of a house. Also that ignores things like the difference between a robot that can vacuum an empty space and one that can pick up clutter, put it where YOU want it (not where it randomly thinks it should be), put away the dishes (again, where you want them), etc, etc, etc is HUGE. They are nowhere near that second one, it might even be impossible with current tech. Elon is all about half baked stuff that will work eventually, so I guess if you're really into it just don't buy the first three revisions of it that he assures you will be "FULL HOME READY" since it took, what, AT LEAST 4 hardware revisions for FSD to come close to what was promised (and it's still not what was promised).

What about if it's looking after little Johnny, or Grandma, and pushes the stroller into traffic, or sets the house on fire? What about if it's working in the steel factory and decapitated somebody with a sheet of metal? Any role that is supposed to be replacing a human needs to be truly risk free. If you wouldn't let your 10 year old do it because they might make a disastrous mistake, then this robot has to be even better than that.

V12 WAS the leap they needed. V12 was the one validated their approach that end to end NN with massive amount of data and training was the right way to go. Not to mention compute wise didn’t catch up until H100 becoming readily accessible. Now with Blackwell and later on Rubin they will be able to process even more and larger data sets. All these are to say that it’s clearly not a hardware problem. Cameras can see perfectly fine just like human eyes, but human intelligence was much higher vs previous FSD, so we can comprehend and react in various situation better. That gap will only get narrower and narrower, if not already.

Ditto dude !

Okay buddy, sure. I'm sure you'll be able to have FSD unsupervised any day now. You'll definitely be able to do it in your current car. It's just around the corner, just like we've all been saying every year for the last decade.

And what if you buy it and tell it to boil some water on the stove...and it burns the house down? Or "iron the clothes", and it leaves the iron face down and burns the house down? Or "run a bath" and it floods the house? Do you think your insurance will pay up? I see this tech as promising, but much in the same way as when you're learning to drive...you might get it one day, but without somebody sitting next to you, you're likely to make some drastic mistakes for the first few months if not years. I'm not sure I'm willing to buy one of these until I'm confident that it's competent with all and any tasks, and that is very hard to prove with an AI-poweres robot. Think how often we ask ChatGPT/Gemini a question and trust the results, only to go "hey that doesn't look right" and then it says "oh I'm totally sorry, that answer is 100% wrong, here's the correct answer, trust me bro."

Just put a dbrand skin on it

If it can do a limited set of line grill tasks (think McDonald's), fast food companies would drop $200k on one in a heartbeat. Compared to the cost of even entry level employees, it won't take that long to be a huge cost savings. Especially if it has minimal downtime.

You’re arguing with someone who probably grew up with TikTok and demands instant rewards

They will eventually get there. But someone has to do the work.

I hve a genuine question... Do you really believe there will be in production, in the very near future, a do all house work robot? With our current tech level, ai bubble included.

Ah yes, the Ghandi effect

That's why you wait for the homebrew/jailbreak/OSS Software to flash onto them as soon as you get them.

Oh Your comment is so funny. Fsd was fully functional in 2018 according to Tesla and Musk. Multifunction robots already exist but its industrally based systems and they havent been introduced really yet. They are also expensive. It does often takes decades for tech to reach the consumer level. Remember the mobile phone? Electric car? Consumer satelite uses? I think it is mybe you that doesnt understand how technology accelerates

Thats not what that means in the context of " just pathological lying"

But we can’t tell that to them, now can we? 😔 RIP

Yeah, people who think these will be sold for 30-50k are not seeing the bigger picture here.

Until Tesla is willing to openly take legal liability for unsupervised driving, it's not close to out yet. And the limited area robotaxi isn't any better than what waymo is doing.

That's not the correct take. FSD requires essential perfection because lives are at stake. Optimus can much more quickly get to tasks like package/food/other deliveries because nobody dies if it drops a pizza. Teleoperation in edge cases is also far easier than with cars. There are like 20 "ifs" here, but even a modestly successful robot has huge value, because Tesla has the production capability to scale.

Are they going to cost the same?

I love the progress, and I'm not a Tesla hater, but this new color is bad. Don't like it on the robo-taxi either.

Damn. You’re right.

I have serious doubts about any robots ability to actually cook a comprehensive set of meals in the present day. As u/JTtornado said, if a robot can do a limited set of tasks it'd be valuable to kitchens and restaurants. However, we're talking about a robot for homes in this thread. I have zero expectations that I'd be able to tell Optimus, or any robot for that matter like 1X, to have a steak dinner ready for me at 6p and it'll season the steak, cook, sear, and get any side dishes done like garlic potatoes, corn on the cob, roasted veggies, etc I do expect my tone to change in the next 10+ years but present day, I have zero confidence a robot will replace anyone in their home kitchen.

Folding laundry and putting it away, I’d pay $5k a year for that

What happens when it folds your shirt with you still in it?

Waymo is doing great. Why must it be better than Waymo to be a success?

Lol yeah. Smartphone had no market because the newton failed. People with your logic don't apply foundational technologies to expanding skill trees, and that's why the predictions seem so bleak. In order for humanoids to come true, it's not about just building a robot that can do summersaults. It's about having several other foundational technologies converging: tiny sensors, loads of data, machine learning, neural networks, compute power and permanent connectivity, adequate battery densities, all combining to upload an AI that can make that robot do human-level tasks at human-level (or greater) operation. Building a summersault robot in a lab is, oddly, the easy part.

Cybercab. The Robotaxi is the network or service. The gold color is a design take on the classic yellow taxi color.

[deleted]

I need one of these to do my laundry and fold clothes

[deleted]

Inb4 “help, Optimus stepped on a Lego brick and fell through wall” posts /s

Ah yes, lets focus on the TAM of a "teenager-chore-doer" rather than "replacing the $60k/year+benefits employee" then brush that case off and continue remarking how there's no clear market for humanoids. Your anti-Elon bias has clouded your judgement to the fact that you're failing the basics of measuring TAM: Start primarily with those who financially benefit the most from it as a productive asset (labour savings, injury or insurance factors), then it cost-curves its way into the households as a luxury item which typically provides leisure/luxury but no income value. I don't care much to argue whether you think it'll happen or not, but for calculating TAM, this is 101 level stuff.

Because that was the promise all along. Unsupervised self driving anywhere in the country, not in a handful of cities like waymo. It's still an open question whether it's possible with the hardware they have in cars, even v4.

Why would they start by selling non-productive assets to consumers rather than market them as productive assets to businesses? The clear path to monetization is "Here's your new employee, it will save you $50,000 a year and $10,000 in insurance costs because it's a high-risk job". There are far more businesses interested in saving money vs. households willing to pay $30k for a robot to pick up laundry and jerk off their dog. After those take off, you cost-curve the robot down to household levels as a luxury/convenience. It's the same reason the early days of Megapacks went to countries whose energy costs were the highest: They had the most to save, therefore could spend the most upfront.

You're not wrong, but FSD has gotten really good. It's a really hard problem. Literally (actually literally) no other car manufacturer is even remotely close to Tesla. So despite the over-promises on timeframe, Elon and crew have done more to advance and proliferate this technology (and many other technologies) than anyone else on the planet.

Waymo literally exists.

Just a couple more bonuses, and one more year. Please guys, its definitely going to be this next year.

Businesses will demand it work as advertised.

Get ready to be downvoted. People that have never used it or used in ages ago are going to present their anecdotal experiences as fact.

Won't take a decade+ There's nothing involved with the cooking process that the robot will struggle with. The hardest thing I imagine it having to do is open the fridge door. The rest of the process the current state-of-the-art could do, it just needs the software, which certainly wont take a decade+ In less than two years, these will be running trials in kitchens and restaurants, similar to the Semi truck trials they did with Pepsi. Robots are already cooking. There's really no reason to doubt this.

How is there a v1 v2 and v2.5 when we couldn’t even buy v1 or isn’t out yet?

Waymo literally can’t drive me from Austin to Dallas. Pretty sure my Tesla can. I find this more practical even if I have to be in the driver seat.

They are great cars with FSD. I love using FSD.

Do you own a Tesla with HW4 and used FSD on it?

Same. Lots of people who don’t own one love to talk crap about it. Ignore them

Agreed

"even if I have to be in the driver seat"

Turns out creating a human like mind for driving is a bit harder than Elon thought it would be. We still don't have the compute power needed for actual decision making machines in the field.

Why can’t they rent them out, alongside selling?

Agreed as well.

A typical homeowner is definitely not the initial target market. We're looking at companies that want to automate more complex tasks (assemble a Big Mac), but are not willing to invest in factory-grade robotics automation. Optimus can be deployed in existing kitchens using equipment designed to be used by humans, which allows you to roll out automation slowly and in a low-risk, cost effective way.

> Seeing how “good” Tesla is with FSD after so many years and try and error, and error and error… Car driving by itself on the road is super simple in comparison to Optimus existing in human spaces. And yet simple driving is where Tesla and it’s FSD fail miserably. *Nothing* about autonomous driving is simple, which is precisely why no one has solved it yet. FSD hasn’t failed in its current role of being a supervised system, in fact it’s unbelievably good.

what equivalent robots are there ? What is their price point ?

It seems like the 100% go to market strategy should be selling these as adaptable robots for business/industrial use. Why would someone buy a 50K home robot? What's the market size for that?

[deleted]

no selling

Doesn’t matter where they get their info from they just don’t want to or care to learn and would prefer to keep spewing their outdated information because Tesla bad

And Tesla should give up because of this? lol So if Tesla starts working on 15 minute full charge capability and I charge my car at night before I go to sleep and I find it more practical that I can sleep for 8 hours and it doesn’t matter if it’s done charging in 15 minutes or 6 hours, even if I have to sleep? I still wouldn’t think they should scrap the idea just because many can charge at home.

Major restaurant chains have been seriously exploring automation in cooking for a while, and that accelerated after Covid, but it's a tough sell because it requires replacing existing kitchen equipment with new expensive machines. If Tesla, (or a competitor like Boston Dynamics) can provide robotics that don't require completely retrofitting existing equipment, that would be a huge win financially.

First, let's make sure we're on the same page here because I'm not talking commercial robotics. According to [the comment I responded to](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1nare78/comment/ncwcwzn/), we're talking about humanoid robots in the household that can do a bunch of tasks. >Keep the house clean. Take care of the cat litter. Make dinner. Clean up afterwards. Things like mowing, litter boxes, vacuuming, dishwashing, laundry, etc are pretty easy household tasks to automate individually because it involves the same repeatable action over and over. Cooking takes nuance; cooking a steak is different than cooking a lasagne which is different than cooking a stir fry. It's easier to automate a kitchen in a restaurant because they're usually serving a lot of the same dishes, the spices and sauces are likely pre-added to shakers and dispensers. A humanoid robot starting a meal in my kitchen and knowing where the spices are in the cabinets, where the measuring cups are, the mixing bowls and spatulas and switching between them at the same speed and finesse a human can is almost certainly far off.

[deleted]

What if it folds the human instead?

Ppl said the same thing about computers in the 70s

And if Optimus trips and falls onto a baby/toddler?

It raises interesting questions. People always talk about who will be responsible if a self driving car kills someone. The owner, or the company that made/programmed it? Now imagine the same for a robot. If the robot serves your family a meal where they’ve accidentally put something toxic in it and kills everyone, or even more simply added an ingredient that someone is allergic to and dies, who is responsible? Are the robots “use at own risk”?

The person didn't say scrap FSD. Most people are simply saying it has been 7 years since Musk said it can go from LA to NY on HW1 without intervention. This is simply not true today even with HW3, and it's not likely even with HW4.

oof, poor timing on this comment. they changed the official name this morning to "Full Self Driving (Supervised)"

What are you talking about??? End of THIS year (said when I bought mine in 2019) I guess he never said the end of WHAT year…

>The rest of the process the current state-of-the-art could do, it just needs the software, which certainly wont take a decade+ Just like FSD. /s There aren't that many people doubting the hardware capabilities of the robot. The software is the main issue. Saying it "just needs software" is silly. >There's nothing involved with the cooking process that the robot will struggle with. No offense brother, but how much experience do you have in the kitchen? The most you've seen these robots do in a "real world" setting is scoop and pour popcorn into a popcorn bag. We're not talking about McDonald's level cooking here. If you genuinely believe that before the year 2036, Optimus will be able to make meals like the average home cook, I think you're out of your mind. Would you put money on it?

Maybe it's me, but I would find these situations below to be rather stressful. This is on FSD V13 with HW4, and it's not better with HW3. *https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaFSD/comments/1n98zwm/fsd_tried_to_hit_the_plastic_bollards_merging/ *https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelYNoRules/comments/1n9lvv9/fsd_failure_at_railroad_crossing/ *https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaFSD/comments/1n7q6ao/my_truck_tried_to_run_over_a_shadowed_motorcycle/ *https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaFSD/comments/1n7pb7h/fsd_almost_hit_curb_extension_on_the_turning_lane/ *https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaFSD/comments/1n6o6hc/fsd_tried_merging_into_emergency_lane_in_the/

Boston Dynamics technology is far more advanced than Tesla's. The more comparable one would probably be the company Figure. I don't know what their price point is though. What's Optimus' price point?

The best part is with end to end neural networks is we have to hope the parameters align that this behavior happens versus hard coding it.

R&D bud. I assure you every new car that drops isn’t the first iteration of that vehicle

Clothes are still folded, task complete

"I've canceled your yoga class later today, we're doing that now"

But why the hell is this car company working on this?

Or some solar flare and one bit shifting would bring us all salvation Mother nature for the win, clankers

I really can’t believe how people are typing a comment like this with a straight face in 2025 lmao.

Neither can Tesla. Tell me when you can take a nap in the backseat while your Tesla drives you from Austin to Dallas. Waymo is FSD, whereas Tesla is driver assist ADAS. They are two fundamentally different technology with different use cases. If you find one to be more useful than the other, great for you. I find simple adaptive cruise control to be more useful than Waymo when I’m on a roadtrip too.

All valid concerns. It’s good that people are making these reports because ultimately it’s going into fixing issues. That being said, it’s supervised and way too many people, probably as many that shit on the capabilities because they heard about it on social media and don’t know any better, treat it and expect that it will be flawless. It’s simply not, but it will do OVER 90% (I’m being very conservative with that figure) of drives completely end-to-end without interventions. What is needed is people train themselves on how it behaves in a multitude of scenarios (lighting, conditions, fucked up line markings, etc) and be ready to take over and not just let the car do dumb shit and then pass blame entirely. We have a HW4 vehicle and it’s absolutely amazing what it can handle. We also have a HW3 vehicle and the difference is just night and day - if someone only ever had experience with HW3, they could be forgiven for thinking FSD is trash

Anyone who thinks it’ll take less than a decade has no idea how scaling manufacturing works

They said it would never work. I didnt say it would never work. I asked about the adressable market size.

You're folding me the wrong directiggghhhhuhhh

> 99.9 percent of time Which is about as useful as 9 percent of the time when it comes to actual unsupervised FSD, which is what Tesla promised. Waymo reached “99.9%” more than 10 years ago. 2 years ago they were at 1 disengagement every 10k miles: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2025/02/03/2024-disengagement-reports-from-california/ FSD is a very good ADAS system, and it’s very useful for people like you. But it’s not a FSD system and will not get there (where Tesla takes responsibility with no human behind wheels) anytime soon.

> there are 10000 videos That’s meaningless. Even with a 80% system you can find 10000 videos of it working perfectly. Because it does, 80% the time. I can show you a million video clips of a coin lands on the face side. It doesn’t mean coins only land on face sides. We know Tesla has truly delivered when there are close to **zero** videos of disengagement because it almost never faults, across millions of users.

Figure is probably the closest product equivalent, but yeah no idea about price points. My impression is Boston D has had a problem for ages with too few customers for some of their robots.

Agreed - my point was mostly on the lines of Tesla selling cars with the promise of FSD. They're still great cars and have value without FSD, the self driving software is just a feature / bonus. Optimus is only worth what it's software makes it capable of. By comparison you won't get consumers to buy it for future features, because it's the entire product.

This is the marketing

Obviously the software is the big thing but there’s no reason to doubt its development. Tesla has shown they are extremely adept at software. The FSD quips don’t work… their software does. Your home cooking ain’t that special. Go look at what robots can do today. In two years… yeah I think they can cook a steak and some potatoes.

If we’re looking just short term there’s about 60M millionaires in the world, if even 10% of them are willing to consider buying a single 50k robot for their house, with maybe only 10% adoption from that group, that’s a conservative estimate of a $30 billion market. That’s not even considering other sources like elderly care homes etc. Longer term I think it could be much much higher. Similar to how home computers became mass consumer scale products so quickly after early adoption by those who could afford it.

Far off, but not a decade+ This is the hottest space right now, with the most to be gained. No one is taking their foot off the gas. Doubting robotic capabilities is like looking at an LLM and laughing because it can’t count how many R’s there are in “strawberry”… stupid bots won’t last for long, the field has too much brainpower and money getting poured into it. Competition is too fierce and there’s too much at stake.

Which hardware version do you think is needed for FSD Unsupervised?

In the same way that software was a SOLVED problem in 2018 and that HW1 is fully capable of FSD Unsupervised.

i_understood_that_reference.gif

Hey, are you guys all looking forward to 2057 when the roadster gets released?

Obviously not the same capability. Why make such low intelligent comment? Anyone who’ve used v13 FSD knows it’s close to be solved.

>We know Tesla has truly delivered when there are close to **zero** videos of disengagement because it almost never faults, across millions of users. Tesla would deliver much earlier than that. In the US, there is an accident approximately every 500k miles. If a person drives around 15k miles annually, across 1 million users you could have fewer than 3000 videos (1 million *15k miles / 500 smiles) and still be better than humans. So we would know that Tesla truly delivered if they would have say 300 videos of accidents each year for every million users. In that case their system would be 10x better than humans. They are far from it now. But it would be a mistake to wait for "close to zero videos".

FSD? From Tesla? Why would they do that, they aren't a car company they are a robotics company!

I assure you that it won’t be able to do any of those things. It will be able to walk around and open up doors. Maybe some waving. You can have a conversation with it via Grok. That’s it.

And they would do what? House cleaning and dishes?

It’s more likely to set the house on fire.

Is the final model going to be optimumus prime

[deleted]

[deleted]

https://eu.telegram.com/story/news/local/north/2011/11/11/worker-killed-when-clothing-entangled/49833914007/ the world is bizarre....

[removed]

Agreed. So happy with the system they have built. I estimate it is less than 30% the stress. I was a very stressed driver before. Life changer fo sho

Unrelated to the topic and low effort

Ditto

I agree. It's a privacy nightmare... buuut maybe you trade that privacy for a spotless house all the time, perfect landscaping, beautiful garden, and fresh-baked cinnamon rolls every morning. Interesting dilemma... tough choice.

I totally agree with this sentiment

Have you seen the current state of FSD? It’s really not far off unsupervised in its current state.

That’s been the name for months.

Great, and as a HW3 owner, when exactly are they going to fulfill the promise of what I paid for?

I am the target market for Optimus. But I will NEVER EVER buy ANY product that is associated in ANY way with Elon Musk. And that is for life.

> Any role that is supposed to be replacing a human needs to be truly risk free. *Nothing* is truly risk-free. Hell, you mentioned "traffic". People die in traffic.

...and THAT, my friend, is the biggest barrier that any autonomous technology will face. NOTHING is risk-free. But when we replace a (risk-taking) human with a machine, society expects it to take zero risks. That's just not feasible or realistic, so by nature the machine WILL have to take risks. In most cases in life this is fine, but with billions or trillions of decisions being made, eventually one of these decisions will lead to an accident (the same sort of accident that many humans would have made and we would have accepted). At that moment, people will freak out and say "tHis tEcH iS nOt sAfE!!!"

I’d like to see your citation for those stats. I’m almost certain you are severely misinterpreting Tesla’s stats since: 1. Supervised FSD is utterly meaningless. 2. They do not have 3 billion miles on record for FSD.

> trust me when I tell you I don’t trust you. Do you drive in all conditions across all locations across the entire country on a 24/7 basis? At best, I believe FSD works well for you, where you are, when you drive your car. Your use case is not indicative everyone’s use case. There is a reason why we rely on systematic testing and reports for these things and not anecdotal evidences.

My *hope* is that we can get past that. We've certainly gotten past that many times before. Thermostats *might* malfunction and break your furnace, traffic lights *might* malfunction and do something unsafe, I just checked online and apparently multiple houses have been burned down by Roombas. We're quite bad at this, but we're not so bad that we're completely crippling ourselves. And if we just end up with a new group of Amish Nouveau, limiting themselves to technology that predates the year 2020, well, I guess that's just what will happen.

I admire them too, but I'm doubtful they'll scale as well as Tesla with as many use cases

I'm pretty confident whatever Optimus looks like when it comes out will be built with far more household utility in mind, and with long term support (See how they see till update software and FSD on 2017+ cars). Their FSD is part of the brain of these robots which is already proven useful on the road as the best self driving software (that scales at least). Unitree feels more like a party trick and I don't think it'll be supported quite as well. But hey I could be wrong as they make better, more useful robots too

[deleted]

Man this is why some Tesla fans tend to have a such a bad reputation. You ran out of things to say then you switch to personal attacks. For your information not only do I have a 15 year old Reddit account, I literally used to be a moderator **on this sub**. I probably have owned Tesla before you have. But sure everyone who you disagrees with is a bot.

I got the FSD Promo this year and last. It was cool, but not impressive and I did not trust it at all. It drove like a teenager with a lead foot that could only see 100-200 feet in front of the car.

When HW5 comes out of course /s

\> Literally (actually literally) no other car manufacturer is even remotely close to Tesla. this is such a weasely way of phrasing this, it's dishonest as hell Waymo is not a carmaker, but they are ahead of Tesla. But you said carmaker. So, Baidu (in China), has a service called Apollo Go which is also providing a robotaxi service. It's unsupervised, and they make their own cars. So even when you're being dishonest, you're being wrong.

Not pictured is version 0.9, "guy in a robot suit."

I don’t believe you.

Lol you don't believe I got the FSD Promo this year and last year?

Waymo has joined the chat

My wife considers the robomower to be the best purchase we ever made.

I am pretty sure nobody has the kind of experience with robotics in the house that Optimus promises. Edit: lol! Insights says "0 views", but somehow I already have a downvote :p

As you did not define near future and ambiguity is always in favor of the person who did not ask the question: yes, I do.

Perhaps if you did not use a throwaway, your "assurances" could be taken more seriously.

those robots are so rude! Why don’t they dress their naked bodies?

This joke would work better if FSD isn’t actually working very well already with minimal intervention. I trust it way more than any taxi or uber driver I ever met

I’ve driven a Model Y for two years now and paid extra every month for a feature that has yet to work properly. Mine is plagued with panthom stops and turns that are short running over the centerline. I’m always needing to stay vigilant and take control when bad things happen. I think FSD is a pipe dream at best

ok

That’s it… im putting all my money on Tesla!

use case for Optimus will be doing jobs that are super dangerous and logistically hard for humans - asteroid mining, nuclear clean up, things like that human exposure is highly risky --- these demos as bar tenders are a carnival

I can agree with both of you guys as the latest state of FSD has greatly improved my life in a way no other invention has. That said, the only ones left who trust Elon about anything he says these days are....and I'll be nice....fools. I do agree it will happen one day but automating the remaining 1% of driving scenario's are by far the most difficult.

The last 1% of FSD scenarios are by far the most difficult. What's remaining are all of the edge cases and the hardware is already approaching it's limits. If you really believed that, put your money where your mouth is and bet on Kalshi or similar, and post your bet :) Source: 23 MYP with HW4

Then why the hell are you in this sub? Go outside, find a hobby, do something else.

The last 1% of edge cases are the very complex scenarios that need to be solved for unsupervised, those remaining edge cases are not just a +1% increase in difficulty from what it can do now, it's not linear it's exponential. I own HW4 and drive 99.9% using FSD as well.

Wait. Are you that lady that stole that kid's home run ball?

Really ? I think it’s sick !

We just got a Tesla - it's nothing like what you describe. It's not perfect, but 99% of the time it's good and I just jump in for those 1% edge cases. I'm very, very happy with it.

Yep - it's especially great at night on narrow 2 lane roads when oncoming vehicles have halogen lights or high beams on - they used to drive me nuts, now it's no big deal.

It clearly at the moment still can be easily knocked over, and something like that falling on a child or pet will serious injury it, and could cause death.

Why don’t you fix what’s broken first? Instead of leaving a whole bunch of nuts and bolts laying around. Finish what you started then maybe people can take you seriously. He’s got more BS than Trump yet he finds away to deflect it with this stupid robot that will probably take another decade to come remotely close to what the vision was.

Seriously, MB is at level three automation, no? Tesla is still level two?

Waymo is not a car manufacturer.

Nobody said Waymo is a car manufacturer. I was responding to following comment: > So despite the over-promises on timeframe, Elon and crew have done more to advance and proliferate this technology (and many other technologies) than anyone else on the planet

Waymo works where? Like 0.001% of US streets. And no one's personal vehicle has Waymo tech.

*sent from a ouija board*

Those 1% of edge cases made me super uncomfortable. I eventually just started shutting it off because it was less effort to just drive than the amount of attention it took to monitor the self driving and try to anticipate what it might do and be ready at a moments notice to shut it off. Now I'm pretty much only really comfortable using it on the interstate.

Interesting - I bet it varies a lot with the area. In my case, most of the urban areas I drive in are well laid out, and the drivers are sane. But, I could see bigger cities with tons of aggressive drivers being a problem. Also, we have a few areas with lots of hills and vegetation on winding roads that people often drive fast on - that's where FSD has had trouble for me a few times.

I wanna get em when they go on sale because you didn't buy it

Driverless FSD works where? Exactly 0.000% of all streets. Does it really matter if you have the "driverless hardware" when it doesn't actually work? Maybe we should ask those with hardware versions 2, 2.5, 3, and 4, who were all promised level 5 FSD hardware, and who were all told their hardware isn't actually good enough. How many more hardware versions until they can actually support driverless cars?

How many years has it been one more year out.

If waymo had a driver in the front seat, like Tesla, and lowered their safety standards to allow it to drive on any road, I'm sure they could drive you anywhere you want to go.

At least these may help with cutting back on bans on X. He can just tell this to choke you to death while you sleep.

Given that the Tesla pay package for Elon Musk includes a due date of Optimus delivery by 2030, I wouldn't put it past them to actually deliver. Just stop believing Elon when says "Early next year will be UNREAL" lol

Almost ***everyone*** is the target market for Optimus. That's why Elon thinks that'll be most of Tesla's worth in future. However people who hate Elon as much as you are very much in the minority.

Just wait until it thinks "start the washer" is "start the uprising"

[removed]

They released robotaxi.

For sure we are a minority. But its not insignificant. And its leading to double digit sales drops in Canada and Western Europe. Upper middle class Democratic households are also the market for Tesla robots (when they appear). Elon has basically pissed off say 25% of the population ... but maybe 75% of his target market in blue cities.

Everyone is not the target market. Elon needs high earning early adopters for his initial generations ... and he will need to stay ahead of other companies. I will buy a competitor.

He?

To be fair, even if it is as much as 25% (which I doubt), if it helps save free speech and the US from gradually becoming a third world country, then maybe it's worth the drop in sales?

Most people just don't care about Elon's political views. It won't affect (or barely affect) their decision to buy a Tesla.

If it’s able to fold clothes and put it away: $20k is worth it.

When can I except Optimus working in my house?

I love the mannequin hands on the new Optimus demo'd for the Salesforce bro.

It’s on the person who bought the groceries if they’re out there buying toxic food for their family

Ah you are doing "the Peterson". But what do you mean by "define", or "you"?

Because they are NOT a car company!

What I meant was: imagine the robot accidentally puts bleach or whatever in the food.

No I am not. Perhaps if you do not annoy me too much, I'll let you know which show I was paraphrasing. You = u/itmaybemyfirsttime Define = to say what the meaning of something is. In this case: is near future 1 day, 1 month, 1 year, 10 years, sometime this century, and so on.

Perhaps if I dont annoy you? Lmao. Sorry I cant even

Totally agree. I think the robotics is pretty cool, but its not going to be a viable product anytime soon.

On the other hand you are making another bad person rich. GJ.

Its 2 weeks

Every technology comes with its own set of risks, and the goal should be to minimize them as much as possible relying solely on automation for critical tasks will always have its drawbacks.

The goal should be to produce the most valuable result for society, taking everything into account. There's a point where minimizing risk is no longer worth it. > relying solely on automation for critical tasks will always have its drawbacks. Same is true with relying solely on humans for critical tasks.

I don’t get it either. While it’s logically true that experience of something working doesn’t prove that it will work 100% of the time, some people are either being paid trolls or just have a giant axe to grind. The way I look at it is, I can’t buy a Waymo and I don’t live in a city that runs Waymo yet. I can buy a Tesla and take it anywhere. These things currently serve two different purposes and I am not personally invested in who wins the corporate war; I’d like both to succeed. I’ve seen massive progress with Tesla however and I think most of the trolls would be absolutely wowed if they actually owned and drove one every day, instead of arguing based on statistics they’ve seen or articles they’ve read, most of which I think are just engagement rage bait.

I'm chuckling at this while my Tesla drives me 30 miles home after a night out drinking.

50k at 5% interest rate will mean it costs (200$ a month + depreciation + energy )  I don't think you understand how cheap that is compared to hiring a human to do those things.

You're assuming it can do things a human can reliably without supervision. Not gonna happen

Honestly it will be very amusing to re-read this comment 5 years from now or even 2 years from now. I'd love to see who will eat crow.

Why would they need to make a 2.5 if they have a V3 already? We’ve hardly even seen 2.5.

I seriously think that this will be possible and probably the way they give "FSD" to HW3 cars.

My Model Y has worked stellarly well. 99% of my driving is with FSD.