Second Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments

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Great quarter. Congrats Tesla We will get a 500k quarter this year.

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Oh man CT is a massive bust

The two things can be true simultaneously - New Y deliveries still haven't had a full quarter of sales in all regions yet, the last European markets didn't see deliveries start until the 2nd of June.

What aging product line? 3 and Y were refreshed in the last 18 months. Cybertruck is brand new in the last 18 months. Also do you really think they’re focusing on FSD instead of other things? They can do multiple things. It’s not like cancelling FSD would make the economics of cheaper EVs instantly better.

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They were refreshed with minor design changes and the addition of some creature comforts. The batteries and motors remain almost entirely the same from their 2017 launch. In fact, the charging curve is slightly worse, its' speed is slower, and 70mph real-world tests show it goes less on a charge. There has been zero improvements on the core functionality of the car at a time when BYD is introducing 5 minute charge times. The 4680 cell has shown little value (slower charges, less performance), the Cybertruck has mostly been a dud (great technology proving platform, but the Model S refresh two weeks ago added zero technology improvements from the Cybertruck, so Tesla doesn't seem to be using this to trickle down yet). Tesla had a ginormous performance lead in 2018-2019 and has largely let it go in the time being.

Which is sad for a lot of reasons. They had like 500k reservations. That was when Tesla was at its peak with the public view of the company and Elon. And then when it started to become apparent it might not be a good use of the companies resources, he forced a worse product with a worse price tag than he had promised, all while seemingly losing his mind and alienating a lot of his fan base. I think the company could have withstood either the cybertruck being a flop or Elon going crazy but not both. Even if robotaxi, FSD, and robots become a thing, I think the company desperately needs some new innovative vehicles.

The huge number of CT reservations was based off: \- much cheaper starting price \- much longer range

Also doesn't help there are multiple competitors now that are pretty decent.

Model Y was still ramping this entire quarter.

One big change is the re-rating of EPA range for 2024… hence it masks a slew of the things that have changed. Battery capacities went up a little bit while efficiency climbed significantly, hence the miles charged per minute gained. That’s why Tesla is still amongst the top of Bjorn’s 1,000 km challenge and did very well on OOSR coast to coast challenge. Meanwhile, nearly every significant complaint about the 3 and Y have been addressed. I do wish that the S/X get Cybertruck platform parts… that would be a big leg up for those vehicles. They may have to move production out of Fremont for that. BYD high speed charging cells still have very limited availability … and BYD and CATL are Tesla suppliers.

pass whatever you are smoking, i could use some of that good shit

That's a great point I forgot. They announced the CT way in advanced and took much longer to deliver and now EV trucks have many options.

I don't think the age of the core tech matters much in the US, it's still competitive. In China yeah they are in trouble. In Europe I think Elon's politics has hurt them more than their offerings. Not producing a real, competitively priced three row SUV for the US market has been an insane decision. The focus on cybercab will probably also prove to be a mistake even if FSD turns out well. Nobody wants to buy a two seater. How many taxis are needed? It's going to flop.

It's actually alarming that they haven't announced chassis/base for a new MS or MX.

I agree Tesla should be doing even more on the drivetrain front, and 4680 has been very disappointing, but consider a few things: \- We don't know how reliable the BYD batteries will be long term with those charing rates A 2025 Model 3 is greatly improved over the 2017: \- A 2025 is a lot quieter of a ride than a 2017 \- The 2025 costs about $2K less \*without\* inflation. With inflation, it's more like a 30% reduction in price. \- The overall efficiency is up 10% betwen 2017 and 2025's Model 3 (25 kWh/100 miles vs 27 kWh), and that's despite a significantly larger battery \- The range is up from 310 to 363. A 20% increase, and 25-30% if you consider the EPA test got 8-10% harder in 2022. Winter range even better thanks to a heat pump from 2021+. \- Lithium 12V battery means more money saved in maintenance. \- Acceleration is quicker - 5.1 secs to 4.9 secs

Price & comfort are definitely the improvements, but I dispute the range ~~and speed~~. Despite the EPA range going up, [Motortrend found that the highland actually fares worse](https://www.motortrend.com/uploads/2023/10/003-Tesla-Model-3-MotorTrend-Road-Trip-Range.jpg) than the non-refresh Model 3 on the highway test (when range really matters). ~~And, the pre-highland Model 3 AWD did a 0-60 in 4.2 seconds, it is now 4.9 seconds. So acceleration is lower, too.~~

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With this delivery report almost beating estimates, and the tax incentive ending in September, are we expecting one last push of 1.99% financing?

- People looking to flip Cybertruck.. so they made dozens of reservations because it was only $100 swipe on a credit card and fully refundable.

As a European citizen with a Model Y since 2022, I am reluctant to buy a 400v car. I will purchase new ev next spring, but I want an 800v architectures. Tesla needs to adapt Model Y/3, and the SC networks, to 800v

I would expect not. I think people will be rushing to buy ev's before the tax incentives end (including tesla's).

It shows 4.2 for the AWD on the website. 4.9 is for the RWD.

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D'oh, thank you. I don't know how I missed that, my mistake.

I think the problem is Elon isn't focused on making cars people want to drive, namely drive themselves. Now it is all about AI, Optimus, and roboTaxi.

I imagine we’ll see 0% in October after the tax credit is eliminated

Genuine question: what is the difference in practical terms?

If a good 800v system charges at a good 800v charger it can charge really fast. 10-20 minutes to 80% depends on the car. It can reach a higher peak and maintain a better curve. But if you charge your 800v at a 400v charger its goes alot slower. 800v systems are more expensive to produce Most people only fast charge when they go on a holiday. Maybe once or twice outside that. I personally fast charge 4-8 times a year. Depends on how far the holiday takes me. In practice most people won’t feel a difference, since the 800v charges too fast toogo to the toilet and get a drink. Especially after a 4-5 hour drive. But it sells cars! People love to be able to charge really fast. Just like people paying 5k more for a bigger battery which they only use once or twice a year. So their 10 hour drive is 20 minutes shorter. But in practice is not shorter at all since they want to make an extra stop, because they don’t want to drive 5 hours straight

These numbers do not tell us this. Production of 3/Y is 50,000 less than what it was in Q3 2024 (which was the peak). So it is either still ramping or they have artificially reduced production because there are no sales.

On very long trips: 400V: typical charge stop is 20 minutes 800V: typical charge stop is 15 minutes, if you are in an 800V charger Shorter trips 300-500 miles the difference is 1-2 mins, because your charge stop doesn't require you to wait to get to 80%.

Most cars in this segment get a full redesign and new production line after 7 years.

I predict Cybercab will go the way of Roadster 2, ATV, and Semi.

My exact reasons for not ordering. I’m NGL hoping this will drive the price down out of desperation to something I’ll consider. I’d be down to trade in my model y from last year for a cybertruck at Xmas if it was a deal.

Tesla sell similar volumes to Mazda. Mazda have a lot more vehicles in the popular, mainstream vehicle segments. It’s not like Tesla have 3 and Y so there’s no benefit to new models in that area.

But there was never a supply issue, so your point is not relevant to delivered units numbers.

> They were refreshed with minor design changes and the addition of some creature comforts. That’s how all model refreshes work. Manufacturers don’t ditch entire lines and start from scratch every time. Are you not familiar with cars and manufacturing? Further, it’s laughably incorrect to claim that the “batteries and motors remain almost entirely the same.” The first Model 3 was only RWD and could do 0-60 in 5.6s with 220 miles. The current AWD Model 3 can do 0-60 in 2.9s with 296 miles. The RWD can do 342 miles. In that time they also doubled the charge voltage and almost halved the 10-80% charge time. It’s clear you know very little about cars, manufacturing, and especially Tesla. You seem to care a LOT about the culture war stuff though. I think you’d be much more comfortable in r/Politics.

If cars are driving themselves, Cybercab makes a lot of sense

I want a Cybercab. Im sure im not the only one. And i also would want one to give rides, not even to ride in myself, which is the real ticket.

Why not just a modified M3?

But there's no reason a 400V car can't charge just as fast.

Typically car models get a full redesign after ~6 years or so, not a minor refresh.

Not true. 400V can charge just as vast as an 800V car. It just needs higher amps.

Here's the problem. The actual business of making and selling cars has a very low return on capital and low margins. If they put all their money into just making cars, the best they can do is... compete with Ford or something? It's kind of like how SpaceX pivoted from the Falcon 1 and Falcon 5 right to a Falcon 9 and first stage reuse after that. They could have just grinded out on smaller rockets but they went for the big technology play.

If they delivered what they said they would have…very early to truck ev market, great price, industry-leading range. They missed every metric to make it a good launch

Right, the cyber cab doesn’t make a lot of sense…just use the m3 and save massive amount of time/headaches for a new manufacturing line. The only reason to do the cab is if it has an entirely new hardware stack the can then become the new model 3/y base.

Do you have numbers for the 2017? The 2022 already had several changes after the 2017 that helped with range already - including 3-6 extra kWh of battery, the heat pump, octovalve, and more.. I was using [fueleconomy.gov](http://fueleconomy.gov) to compare 2017 and 2025 and there are definitely improvements. EDIT: Here's Bjorn Nylands data fwiw: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6ucyFGKWuSQzvI8lMzvvWJHrBS82echMVJH37kwgjE/edit?gid=0#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6ucyFGKWuSQzvI8lMzvvWJHrBS82echMVJH37kwgjE/edit?gid=0#gid=0) Model 3 RWD Highland - 289 miles @ 120 kph Model 3 LR RWD (earlier) - 217 miles @ 110 kph (i.e. lower speed) The problem with third party test is tires can change a lot, but the range has definitely improved, there's tons of stats here to show that.

Offering Autopark and ASS for free, alongside continued improvements to Autopilot AI, could significantly enhance Tesla’s cars’ appeal by aligning with customer expectations, reinforcing brand innovation, and supporting long-term autonomy goals.

Why is the stock going up? I just don't get it.

They announced reduce production runs [article](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/tesla-stock-cybertruck-model-y.html)

Yea my family and I cancelled 3 reservations because of his antics. I would love to have it but I just can’t morally buy it.

The irony is how Elon would consistent say *"Prototypes are easy; production is hard"* as a sort-of explanation for why the Cybertruck was taking so long. It was almost a boast - that other car companies would regularly make impossible prototypes, but the final product looked or delivered nothing that the prototype promised - *and that Tesla was different.* The implication was that they were able to make a Cybertruck that matched all of the price and range requirements...but in reality, when it came to making a production version, they just couldn't.

It will be twice as energy efficient and way cheaper to produce at scale.

I guess the benefits become a lot more pronounced as EVs increasingly spread beyond people who have off-street parking and charge at home, to people who don’t. For example, in the UK it’s entirely common for even fancy big houses not to have off-street parking (eg older townhouses in cities). So if you’re using public chargers all the time, a 5 min difference is much more important.

Tesla stock has not correlated with reality for a bit. I think it’s due to performance being on par with what was expected vs it being substantially worse. Even though there’s a ton of red, that fact alone pushed the stock up. There’s still a ton of hype for robotaxi and the launch of it. Reality hasn’t settled in yet. Fact that NHTSA is already investigating and a number of concerning videos even from a super small Austin roll out hasn’t caught up yet. I think that they’ll get slapped pretty hard in the near future due to releasing supervised FSD as full robotaxi software basically. They’re one bad accident away from a major blowback.

Such a waste of resources. That's the kind of mistake that looms over you for years

Usually that means people expected worse news. Like everybody knew CT was a failure but there was uncertainty in how much the core 3/Y business was affected and it ain't great but not as bad as many investors feared apparently.

I'm not saying nobody wants one, I'm saying they are forecasting it to be the most high volume model of any car ever produced and there's nothing to suggest the demand will be at that level. Why own a cybercab when Model Y is also a robotaxi and can do everything cybercab can do and much, much more? The only good use case for cybercab is as a "fleet vehicle." Individuals will buy more versatile models unless they want to start their own fleet. Tesla says they are going to sell 2 million cybercabs per year, but 4 million cybercabs could probably replace the entire global rideshare business. So who's going to buy it after that point? Why would you buy one over a Model Y (or the upcoming cheaper version of the Model Y), other than if you were running a rideshare fleet?

Got a source link for that? Curious what they changed

Oh boy, if you are hoping that EUROPE bails out Tesla's sales numbers ...

A lot of people at the time were planning on having a fleet of them and using as a robotaxi, but that hasn’t happened has expected so people probably don’t have a use for ten cyber trucks if they can’t make money off them.

Tesla stock goes up on bad news and down on good news.

You might have a case if we weren't talking about another 13% sales plunge YoY, with the S, X, and Cybertruck delivering a COMBINED 10,394 vehicles all QUARTER. Defend Tesla all you want, claim its detractors only care about the culture war, but consumers are speaking with their wallets, and they are not impressed by models that have looked essentially the same for the last decade. Even if the culture war stuff didn't exist, I would find little reason to upgrade my 9-year-old 2016 Model X. And if I had to pick a new vehicle, Tesla would be far down my wish list. It's too bad, too, since I love that car and it has served me well. But even without the culture war stuff, Elon would rather mess with shit like steering wheels and stalks, while focusing most of his energy on the Cybertruck boondoggle and robots. Maybe that's what will someday justify TSLA's stock price, but it doesn't make people rush to upgrade or buy new cars.

Great points. People painting this “dark picture” are pretty clueless

Looks cooler. More efficient. Cheaper. Bigger screen. Wireless charging.

Cybercab is a far cooler design and will be more efficient. More efficient + easier to make + faster to make + lighter to move = more $$$ for Tesla and anyone who wants to rent it out.

I’ve already spotted about 20 new Y’s on the road just in my area since the start of the month, they’re selling at a rapid clip. Don’t believe the hype.

But all the Tesla bros said the ones in yards where sold 🤣🤣

The honest answer is because outsider projections were expecting even worse news than this, so it was priced in. Then this “better” news came out, which elevated the stock.

Yes, but you need more amps. More copper, more cost, more weight. 800V makes it easier to charge fast.

Tesla should have produced a large SUV instead of the very limited market the cyber truck has.

Yeah it makes the chargers a bit cheaper and reduces vehicle weight slightly. Doesn't change my point though.

So remember how the stock was going down before? Elon drama, brand damage, EU sales slumping, tariff uncertainty, etc. Well it turns out that sales aren't as bad as people expected and investors are now looking to the future and expecting continued growth from here. So if the stock was worth $480 six or seven months ago when Robotaxi was just hype why wouldn't it be worth $315 today with sales recovering and Robotaxi looking a lot more real?

Add to that much lower interest rates.

You know Waymo exists, and their service is far from perfect. Why are you so certain that Tesla's Robotaxi is doomed to fail?

You're right in the sense that the real money is going to be selling FSD licenses, not selling the cars. Although Tesla still has decent margins for a car company. But in order to sell the software licenses you have to sell the car first.

"NEWS: The Tesla Model Y has officially become the best-selling car in Türkiye for June, surpassing even traditional ICE vehicles, with 7,235 units sold. This marks the first time Tesla has achieved this milestone in the country." [Link](https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1940514748078215487)

💯

Not all the other concerns. Tesla of 2025 isn't doing well compared to the Tesla of 2024. Tesla's sales are down by double digits at the same time the EV market is expanding by double digits. That ought to be concerning. Another concern is that at the beginning of the year Musk said sales would be up by 20-30% this year. For that to happen, sales needed to be up about 75% higher than they were.

Doesn't matter. The US and China are by far Tesla's largest markets. Europe itself isn't a big enough market to account for the sales decline.

I am not. But also compare their performance to FSD performance. Even recent tests show quite a few concerning behaviors specially in not so clear conditions. Waymo has redundancy in place while Tesla is using camera only. While it may do great in 95% of the situations, having no driver to account for the other 5% is a huge risk compared to how Waymo operates.

Of course they don't start from scratch. Entirely new models are rare. But take for example the Rav4, which itself based on the Camry platform. Toyota does minor refreshes every couple years, and major refreshes about every five or six years. When the refresh comes out, it looks very different from the predecessor, with new/different features and styling. You can tell instantly if is a refreshed version or not. Automobile manufacturing has always worked like that, even moreso in the past. Getting next year's model was a big deal, and dealerships used to hang curtains in showrooms so the cars would be revealed to everyone at the same time. Model years aren't as big a deal anymore, instead manufacturers talk about "generations" but consumers still have a preference for the new thing, and that's why perfectly fine cars are refreshed. People just want it. Tesla's model is to always be incrementally improving the car and do away with model years altogether. There is a lot of merit to that, because if you have an improvement, why wait? But the cars themselves are now looking dated in the minds of consumers. Consumers don't want cars that look dated, they want cars that look like the new thing. To the consumer's eye, the 3 & Y still look about the same, even as the internal components have improved. That's why they need a refresh.

Some estimates were around 350-355K. Could say priced in already from it being obvious all this time.

Yep

Part of me likes the Cybertruck being a failure not because I don't like it because I actually love it. I think it's the most bold futuristic vehicle that's come out in a generation. If it was a huge success, it'd be common and in the future they wouldn't be worth much but because it's a flop it means they'll be rare in the future and valuable.

Where is my model 2 ?

No, leave that bullshit out of this sub.

The charging port is also limited by amps in the spec I believe. Can't get around that even if the cables are made thicker / active cooling is used. Easier to go 800v.

Because the vehicle is $7,500 more expensive

That would make sense if the batteries inside were also double the voltage but they aren’t. They are still 4.2volt batteries and the 400v system charged them from 3 to 4.2 volts just like the 800v pack will. The 800v will allow for less amps which mean smaller cables and a little less cooling. I don’t think those gains will give you double the charging time.

He asked for the practical difference, I gave him the practical difference. It is correct that most people overestimate 800V systems because they appear to charge faster, but consumption and other parameters is also very important.

What they announced is only part of the story, they may have a generally more relaxed production rate and many other unannounced reductions. It may also be the opposite, they may be going flat out while ramping as fast as they can, and the announcements are for other operational reasons (line upgrades etc). All I am saying is that these numbers are not sufficient to draw conclusions. Neither are the announcements for production pauses.

Meh, Tesla's much lower consumption will probably win over slightly faster charging rate in cities where the efficiency difference of Tesla is huge.

The 800V system can charge at the max 500A of CCS2 at 400kW. Tesla's 400V system tops at 200kW on CCS2 chargers. He said that he is in Europe for a reason.

> BYD is introducing 5 minute charge times. any proof of this actually being released as a consumer product? i feel like someone claims this is due to be released at least once a year and it never actually materializes

The company needs a new leader. I have bought 4 Teslas, I will not buy another one if he is associated with the company in any way what so ever.

Tesla has the highest profit margins on cars than anyone else. They have like $30 billion in cash reserves because of how strong their profit margins on cars have been.

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If Tesla had started on 3 instead of X, and Q instead of CT, and then if Elon had went all in on backing Dems who could be strong armed into heavily subsidizing clean tech, Tesla would be worth about 10x what it is worth right now. And if they just had to do the cyber truck, it should’ve been a cobranded model with SpaceX, and launched as a new vehicle category, the Mars Rover. Not a pickup truck because it isn’t going to win over cowboys. It COULD win over space nerds.

I had one preordered early and never placed my order when they jacked up the price. Then I saw honest reviews and saw how cheap it looked in person and decided to get a refund but they want my bank account info just to give me my money back!

You look at the delivery breakdown and you no longer wonder why they stopped giving a shit about the S and X

Ah good, Tesla’s problems are solved. Congrats on 7,000 cars sold in Turkey.

Speculation. Tesla isint just a car manufacturer.

That’s 7,235 Model Ys in a month. Extrapolated to 86,820 a year in a previously untapped market.

Can’t blame the price bc we had crazy inflation thanks to Covid and govt printing money. 60k now is what 40k back then. I was waiting for 450mi-500mi range. Would pay up to 100k for it. (~80k back then)

Yeah, and if it was $10k even less… I don’t think being “only” a $100 explains the high number of reservations. I think it’s more explainable as a genuine gap between interest in the promise and the reality of Tesla in 2025.

And minivan would be awesome.  They could even make a cargo van version.

Incorrect... for Model Y, they were production constrained for the quarter. Model 3 and CT was not... and S/X was production constrained because they shut down production for the mild refresh.

Cybertruck is a bust for me because they didn't live up to their announcements on price and range.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… they should have made a cheaper regular looking truck with 12V, rack steering and shorter range as their mass market model and then innovated with the CT as a lower volume truck for Tesla superfans. Their hubris got the best of them.

When during his antics? Because he didn’t really get involved in the politics until Cybertrucks were available.

That makes no sense. They didn’t have the money to go straight to 3. And SUVs were more popular. The economics of a smaller vehicle are still really tight. So they continued to work on tech in a halo vehicle like the truck.

Most “honest reviews” actually very much like the truck.

So the F150 or Silverado? Who already have massive scale selling trucks but continue to lose money on the trucks? Even when they sell base models?

Bro I test drove a juniper this quarter. 1-3 week delivery when i was building pote tial models.  That's quicker than either of thr two teslas my family owns. And s/x are such a small percentage of their car sales that they don't sway the numbers enough to matter here.

Very Little, literally saves you 2 hours yearly. I’d much rather pay cheaper and have a 400v car

My main argument is: Tesla is not anymore the best in range and charging speed. In Detail the German carmakers picked up and are equal or better. The new Mercedes CLA way better.. the expected new architecture 2027 which brings 800v and charging rates way above 400kW will even better. The competitors are not sleeping. If elon want that someone buys his cars, even if he is crazy, he needs to set new benchmarks in range/charging speed. (For now, imho the Model Y is still the best price/value car 😅 next one is the Skoda Enyaq/elroq)

In a theoretical world this is true. But we don't live in a theoretical world.

The X and CT and R2 have all been lost efforts. Wasted time and wasted money. Getting to Y earlier via earlier 3 development would always be preferable to wasting time and money elsewhere.

its so funny to have a technologically advanced car but decide to say, "wait, no, stop here, this is good enough".

I was waiting for exactly the same. I would've been more than happy to pay more for the originally promised specs.

This right here. A minivan that had decent range would have sold not just to larger families but also to small business's and to local delivery companies.

The X and CT were a huge waste of resources and time, and the S could have been a proper mid-size SUV. Making sedans and specialty cars in a world that only wants crossovers and SUVs was dumb and shortsighted.

It was also marketed as a way to reserve FSD at the current price (I think $7k at the time)

They need a mini van and SUV 7 adult men optional versions and minimum 400-500 miles of range (So you can tow a boat or make a 4-5 hour road trip in all weather conditions). No more excuses anyone with the money to buy one of these or a cybertruck expects this capability from any other vehicle in this category.

Yeah a 500 mi EV for 70k was a stupidly good value

Ok Homer Simpson.

It would not be as easy as an F150 chassis cab production. Would be *possible*, but it would make more sense for a completely new design.

The Cybercab is ready to go, Austin has hundreds if not thousands of castings. New model 2 or smaller car would be possible.

I REALLY wanted what was presented on stage. $50k, awd, 400 mi range. Very robust. Didn’t care about look if I didn’t have to worry about dings and such. Immediate preorder. About a year later I refunded it. There was no way what was promised would happen.

Even then, if he sat on the sidelines and let Kamala win he would have sold 10x as many.

Much sooner delivery too. I put one down and then 2 years later had to get something else because it STILL wasn’t ready and ended up with a model 3.

Musk said it is pointless [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-now-says-its-pointless-build-25000-tesla-human-drivers-2024-11-05/](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-now-says-its-pointless-build-25000-tesla-human-drivers-2024-11-05/)

They have a (relatively expensive) minivan called the model X

Ehh there are EV trucks options but all of them are way down right now on sales. Might just be that people don't want EV trucks because we're past the hype now, they are very expensive at a time when rates are very high, and you can't really tow long distance.

2 hours yearly IF you use public fast chargers a lot. I just did a 5,700 mile road trip and spent a total of 20 surplus minutes waiting to charge beyond our bathroom and food breaks. For me it would have cut that to 10 minutes, or perhaps zero if the previous charge was greater, but that's not a lot of time savings. The odds that I'd have seen even a single charger capable of that kind of output is also desperately low.

> If cars are driving themselves, Cybercab makes a lot of sense Is it really? It can never be more efficient than current public mass transit (trains, subways, buses, trams, etc.) It can never compete with private owned cars, because the main function of private cars is to move people to their workplaces at the same time in a day and be almost unused the rest of the time. It does not make economic sense to build a cybercab fleet solely for the purpose of having a single cybercab replace only single privately owned car and be unused most of the time. It only competes with taxis and rideshare services, where car utilization is high by nature, but that market is really small. Much smaller than making cars. Musk is just such a stupid businessman that he was willing to destroy Tesla's potential as one of the largest electric car manufacturers just to put all the R&D money into self-driving Uber.

Stupid business man who has been more successful than any other business man? An electric Cybercab can be extremely efficient. If you just compare the technology of an internal combustion engine to an electric motor you are talking about 20% efficient compared to 85%. So, one could have more than 4 Cybercabs driving the same amount of miles as an ICE bus. The nuance in this comparison comes down to the number of people in the bus, the number of “dead-head” miles, and the curb weight. Mass transit is very efficient but people want privacy too. The Cybercab experience will be great. Tesla also will ‘close the loop’ and recycle the batteries. Can’t recycle gasoline, diesel, or natural gas. Electric busses are cool, and Tesla will do that too eventually with the Robovan. But you can’t make a bus go specifically where you want it to like the Cybercab. It’s a little apples to oranges. It’s definitely not a dumb play. It will be great.

> Stupid business man who has been more successful than any other business man? Is he, by what measure? He is the richest, but most of that wealth is in shares of the purely speculative Tesla. That is, he has the most money in the world, because investors have speculated that Tesla will be a truly successful company in the distant future. > An electric Cybercab can be extremely efficient. If you just compare the technology of an internal combustion engine to an electric motor you are talking about 20% efficient compared to 85%. So, one could have more than 4 Cybercabs driving the same amount of miles as an ICE bus. What does that comparison matter? It sounds like you don't even believe it yourself to make such an irrelevant comparison :D Buses are also being electrified at a rapid pace, so why on earth would anyone make such a comparison. >The nuance in this comparison comes down to the number of people in the bus, the number of “dead-head” miles, and the curb weight. Mass transit is very efficient but people want privacy too. So are you trying to argue that because Uber has a driver, that's the reason why people haven't switched from buses to Uber in large numbers? > The Cybercab experience will be great. Tesla also will ‘close the loop’ and recycle the batteries. Can’t recycle gasoline, diesel, or natural gas. Again this EV vs fossil comparison that is not related to the topic at all. It is not related to this CyberCab discussion, where Tesla (or actually Musk) specifically does not want to invest in the development of electric cars but in self-driving Uber. In other words, Tesla voluntarily gives up the EV market to other manufacturers. > Electric busses are cool, and Tesla will do that too eventually with the Robovan. Ev Busses are cool and I don't think Tesla (at least with Elon at the helm) wants to enter that market either. I don't know about the US bus market, but European and Chinese bus manufacturers are far ahead in that development that Tesla wouldn't have any chance at this point. > But you can’t make a bus go specifically where you want it to like the Cybercab. It’s a little apples to oranges. But taxi goes, and now Elon is betting all money on that. > It’s definitely not a dumb play. It will be great. If it's so great, then it would be easy to calculate how AI-UBER will beat normal EV manufacturing in profitability.

About 3% of busses are electric in the US. Definitely not irrelevant. Uber on the other hand IS irrelevant. That's a dead man walking. They will get severely undercut by a far better product, and that is happening NOW. The Austin roll out is showing people prefer Robotaxi over Uber/Waymo. And that's obvious. Why choose an uglier, less smart, more conspicuous, less comfy, slower, more expensive option? They won't. Uber and Waymo's days are numbered. It's clear as day. They don't make money. [edit: Waymo doesn't] Tesla will make money hand over fist. The EV space is swiftly morphing into the AV space. Elon sees it coming. Folks can act like he sacrificed the whole EV space, but the EV space is kinda already old news. Elon is forward-looking. These things move fast. There are a lot of benefits to being free from car ownership. And why would Tesla sell a vehicle when they can make much more on it as a taxi? Makes more sense to lean into autonomy as soon as possible. It's like sacrificing a few bucks today knowing you can get a hundred later. They already showed the bus they want to make one day. You can think that they won't do that, but they said they will. They'll simply do travel for cheaper than others and it will be a better experience in every way.

>Second Quarter

That’s what happened end of 2023 when the model 3 tax credit was not sure the be renewed and the lfp never was. Literally the amount of teslas in the area exploded in popularity. The rush to eliminate this credit is going to drive sales. I’ve got friends that work at Tesla that are saying there’s already a huge uptick in orders being placed. If you don’t buy now then you’re going to have to wait until trump is out and hope his successor reimplements it.

Mini vans don’t sell. 7 seaters don’t sell.

I don’t think 9.4 million minivans is an insignificant number globally. Plus it is an opportunity to introduce generations of kids to your product lines.

There isn’t any reliable source for that data but assuming it’s true that’s still insignificant when you account for designing an entirely new vehicle, refreshing it, and that doesn’t tell you how much money they make from those sales or how profitable it is. It’s less than 5% of all vehicles sales. People are having less kids than ever before and everyone is focused on emissions/climate change/range. Doesn’t make sense. Also the minivan segment is already dominated by a select few players and everyone else has pulled out.