Quarterly Earnings Call Q4 2024 - Shareholder Deck

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So what's going to be the low-cost car that's going into production in 2025? Says cybercab starts in 2026.

There isn't one. IF there is something, I suspect it will be a bastardized version of the 3. No way they start production of a new car we haven't even seen anything of this year.

That's the big question. I would guess a compact SUV, smaller than Model Y. Model Y is more of a mid-size SUV, similar in size to something like Ford Edge, whereas this would be more of a compact SUV, similar in size to something like Bronco Sport. But that's just a guess.

You clearly didn't read the report. It says: "Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025." They've been talking about this for the last year. Yes, it's weird that we haven't seen the car yet, but they've said it's coming.

"multiple affordable models utilizing aspects of the 3/y line as well as the next-gen line"

It seems like we are at the point now where everything hinges on FSD becoming unsupervised. The only new model that has even been announced, let alone in development is the Cybercab, and in my opinion the update on the model Y was not significant enough to explode demand. It's possible they start producing a 60-80k variant of the Cybertruck this year, but even if that is profitable (unlikely at least at the start) I don't see demand for that skyrocketing either. 2025 Will be an interesting year for Tesla.

Yeah that's essentially what EM said, along the lines of if you don't believe in FSD you might as well sell $TSLA

What I find frustrating is that it doesn't need to be an either/or situation. ALL the cars in their current lineup have the hardware to FSD. Why not keep making cars people can drive, and then when FSD software is ready, flick a switch and you have a fleet of millions. Instead they are building an entire model that can ONLY work if FSD software is running at 100%.

> scheduled for **volume production** starting in 2026. They only state volume production in 2026. It's possible they start pilot production in 2025.

We’ve seen it. It’s the Cybercab but with a steering wheel and normal paint and shit.

Right but they said lower cost models are starting 1H of 2025 in the slide deck.

It says **volume** production of cybercab starts in 2026.

Yes, there has been leaked photos of a disguised smaller sized vehicle on the development lots. It was lined up with the now-revealed Juniper, but noticeable smaller and different from the 3.

No we haven't. Also, no way they sell a two-seater normal car with a steering wheel.

They specifically call out new low cost models starting in the 1H of 2025.

And in present day hw3 vehicles, fsd cannot even make a right turn at a stop sign on 12.6.1.

Did it have yellow coverings? That was Cybercab.

It won’t be a 2 seater. A “Model 2” version of Cybercab can have the normal Tesla seating arrangement. Note how far back the Cybercab seats are, there’s plenty of room to move them up and put back seats in.

The timing of the "unsupervised FSD" post now makes more sense, to hype the stock ahead of the missed earnings numbers.

We don't even know if hw4 can do fsd, let alone 3 or 2.5 (which is doubtful for both). We haven't even considered automatic camera cleaning and redundancy in processing.

Yeah for sure. Even tesla said they expect their energy revenue to overtake auto sales (can't remember timeline). So why does it have to be all fsd ? Keep ramping and delivering energy to new markets and tsla becomes an etf. Obviously vehicle sales have hit a demand and competition problem so the new compact vehicle, new markets and fsd all working in synergy.

They talked about it yes, I think 2 years ago even? But nothing made official, it's also been cancelled, Musk has been quoted saying there wasn't a budget car coming. Then we got a 2 seater cybercab instead. Idk man, I'll eat crow if they present and start making a new model within a year. We started seeing rumours for Juniper a year ago, and test mules half a year ago. If this doesn't make you skeptical I don't know anymore..

True but the rate of improvement is truely exponential. Tesla is close- but still plenty of proving before it goes wide release unsupervised.

I genuinely don't think there's room in Cybercab for four seats. At least not in a manner that's even remotely desirable.

In the QA, they are doubling-down with unsupervised FSD being released for this year. Pretty crazy. Edit- Elon also just said that they're "honestly" probably going to need to upgrade HW3 FSD computers in order to support it, and that it will be "painful".

If only Tesla had an independent board acting on behalf of shareholders.

Oops, sorry, misread. All speculation here, i think cybercab based car hinted in Isaacson's biography. It sounded like Elon finally agreed with Franz and team to hedge with a user drivable variant of the cybercab.

> They've been talking about this for the last year. Yes, it's weird that we haven't seen the car yet, but they've said it's coming. Wouldn’t a stripped down Model 3/Y be considered a new vehicle by Tesla’s standards? They already have two Model Ys even if it’s temporary. Only explanation I can think of for a vehicle that shares the existing line but no word or leaks on the appearance. Perhaps the old Y body becomes the affordable model.

Good for them. Seeing how much people originally paid for it, if they still hold onto their cars they deserve it. I hope it's a paid option for those that want it.

"Tesla's standards"? What does that even mean? Tesla has never said they were releasing a new model that just turned out to be a modification of one of their current models. Not gonna happen.

They've been reiterating that this model is coming in the first half of 2025 every single quarter for the last 3 quarters. I'm a little skeptical because we've seen nothing, but to outright deny this is going to happen is ridiculous. They're likely trying very hard to hide it to avoid osborning their current models.

I missed the call but did we get any confirmation of any new models this year?

I would say it’s the cyber taxi - with a wheel and pedals.

Yeah I don’t get why some are so adamant that it’s outright canceled. I understand being a little skeptical about it but come on. They just said it’s coming before Q3 again not even 2 hours ago. If it *is* cancelled, somebody’s getting sued for misleading investors, and it’ll be an open and shut case.

We do now. Elon outright said that they’ll upgrade HW3 cars for owners who bought FSD.

Yes. “We will be introducing several new products throughout 2025. We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half 2025, and will continue to expand our lineup from there.”

Interesting. Thanks!

A normal two-seater would not sell. Not gonna happen.

In April last year Reuters reported that a cheaper model was canceled, but that could easily be something else (assuming it's true at all).

I wouldn’t be opposed to paying for the upgrade, ONLY if unsupervised FSD actually happens. Until then I’ll just be keeping the subscription to have the car drive me around with me in it.

I've been a beta tester since Oct 2021. It's been mostly 2 steps forward and 1 step back. V12 was a nice initial bump but with problems with HW3. I strongly argue that 12.6.1, for me on HW3, has been on par with version 9/10. We are nowhere close on HW3. I may be bitter though. I paid 10k for this in March of 21', expecting is was coming "the end of the year". I'll never get the value that I paid for it.

Yeah if they have the process figured out, it’d just be leaving money on the table to not offer it to subscribers too.

Some people need commuting cars and not road trip cars. They'd take a reasonable battery reasonable performance, reasonable charge speed car with 2 seats, if it was 20-25k$. That's why BYD sells cheap EVs and hybrids. I bet most of the cars BYD sell are cheaper than Model 3/Y. They probably have something equivalent to 3/Y, too, but not their bestseller.

wasn't it called model Q internally?

Or just read what the earnings reports have said for the last year. Based on current production lines and vehicles.

Model Y isn’t a mid size SUV. The ford edge really isn’t one either. Auto typically considers midsize to be things like Explorer, Pilot, Palisade.

Companies make vehicles off of existing platforms all the time. What do you mean “Teslas standards”?

There's no real formal definition. I call it mid-size because all the most popular SUVs are in that size range, and it's roughly in the middle between the biggest SUVs and the smallest. Explorer/Pilot/Palisade are bigger than most. But it doesn't really matter what you call it. It's larger compared to SUVs like Bronco Sport, and I think this new SUV will be more in Bronco Sport territory.

Two-seaters don't sell. It makes sense for a Robotaxi, but clearly people don't buy them as regular cars.

I'm not bitter for the price I paid, and was into FSD 2 years earlier than you were. It's come a long way, and I'm very happy with it.

They will cannibalize M3 and MY sales and I have always thought that’s the reason why they never moved fast on the 20-25k Model. A lot of folks buying the M3 and y including me could make do with a smaller Tesla as most folks don’t need a 4 door car or 5 seater. definitely need some new models / products coming from Tesla . This sales and revenue slump is not great .

Did Tesla suffer as a business when they created Model 3/Y after Model S/X already existed? No, quite the opposite. Cheaper cars make far more money than expensive cars.

My Model y feels like a sedan with a 5th door, with a small lift. I have never thought of it as an SUV at all.

Is 4680 battery cell production only getting a single sentence referencing production output a red flag to anyone else? Any word on whether this project is going to actually be cancelled as was rumored since early last year? The fact that they're being quiet about it telling

Upgrading to hw4 will be like upgrading to hw3 from 2.5. The next debacle will be hw4 to hw5 and so on.

Yeah that would be cool. Fantasy.

Doesn't matter what you think. It's the same size as a Ford Edge SUV.

They haven't revealed this yet but there was a video a couple weeks ago of a cybercab with what looked like a steering wheel driving around the Austin Factory, but it's unclear if it actually was a steering wheel or a shadow. Pure speculation of course.

i think they could actually fit a back seat row in the cybercab, it would be a coupe, but i think it's feasible. if you watch videos of it driving around the austin factory it really isn't any smaller than a typical small sedan.

I don't think so, and I've seen many videos. It's extremely small. Also, even two-door cars with four seats don't sell.

Yeah idk. I’m just speculating based on the video which looked to me like a cybercab with a steering wheel

And also the fact those cubercabs have extremely dark tints compared to the factory stock 3/Y which make it seem like they’ve tried to hide the interior

It's hard to tell with videos like that. Also, they could have steering wheels just for development purposes. They need some way to move the cars around while the software is still imperfect.

I don't think we should read into that.

I remember that, it was a few weeks before the Q1 earnings report. Where It was confirmed to still be in the works. Also Elon refuted them immediately by tweeting “Reuters is lying (again)”.

It's not entirely clear what Elon meant. Maybe there was some truth to the Reuters report. For example, maybe they switched their plans to a different kind of cheaper car.

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Ahh man. Looks like you will be getting an upgrade HW wise so at least thats a positive. The timelines had been shoddy at best. Appreciate your work ad a tester!!

That doesn't necessary mean new model. Could be a very stripped down Model 3 for example. "Model 3a"

The energy storage and services are the only bits of Tesla that have made a profit. The increase in these has offset the really poor performance of the other functions like car manufacture.

Yep, the lower-end Tesla has what, a 280 hp motor? If Tesla is able to do a relatively big Model 3 car full of features and sell it under 40k with profit. It sould be able to make a small 25k car with much lower specs and outcompete everyone else..

“The honest answer is that we’re gonna have to upgrade people’s HW3 computers for those that bought FSD. That’ll be painful and difficult, but **we’ll get it done.**” -Elon Musk So yes, he did say that they’ll upgrade them. And since HW2 vehicles got an upgrade to HW3, yes I believe him.

Unlikely given what Tesla said: “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will **utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms** and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

well. 80k to 40k. so different market. 40k to 25k or 30k. same market, so smaller model will carnivalize m3 and my

Not the same market. I'm not sure how you came up with that arbitrary idea.

I was going to reply with the same, but realized you will not understand so left it .

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So you agree with everything I said. Awesome

>The energy storage and services are the only bits of Tesla that have made a profit. You can look at slide 29 of the linked financial charts and see that's quite literally not true.

there’s a lot of people that would buy that if it’s low cost namely young people

The market says otherwise. Look at the sales numbers for two-seater cars. They're abysmal.

So nothing

We’ll know once June is here.

No. . And a ford edge has more space. And I don’t own a ford edge. So it doesn’t matter. If I worked any car a small as my Y I’d still not consider it an SUV. You’re calculating based on frunk and sub trunk space. You can’t take a bed or a tv apart and divide it among those spaces.

You're literally just wrong. These are numbers you can simply look up... Ford Edge dimensions: 189″ L x 76″ W x 68″ H (New) Tesla Model Y dimensions: 189″ L x 78″ W x 64″ H They're nearly identical in terms of size. Ford Edge is an SUV. Tesla Model Y is also an SUV. They're the same size.