As October comes to a close, here's an update on the [FSD] releases

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For those that don't want to go to X > As October comes to a close, here's an update on the releases > What we completed: > * End-to-end on highway has shipped to ~50k customers with v12.5.6.1 > * Cybertruck build that improves responsiveness > * Successful We, Robot event with 50 autonomous Teslas safely transporting over 2,000 passengers > What's coming next: > * Full rollout of end-to-end highway driving to all AI4 users, targeted for early next week, including enhancements in stop smoothness, less annoying bad weather notifications, and other safety improvements > * Improved v12.5.x models for AI3 city driving > * Actually Smart Summon release to Europe, China and other regions of the world > * v13 is a package of following major technology upgrades: > * 36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs > * Native AI4 inputs and neural network architectures > * 3x model size scaling > * 3x model context length scaling > * 4.2x data scaling > * 5x training compute scaling (enabled by the Cortex training cluster) > * Much improved reward predictions for collision avoidance, following traffic controls, navigation, etc. > * Efficient representation of maps and navigation inputs > * Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles > * Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking > * Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities > * Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage > * Improved camera cleaning and handling of camera occlusions > We have integrated several of these improvements and are already seeing a 4x increase in miles between necessary interventions compared to v12.5.4. > This lays the foundation for the v13 series, and we are targeting to ship v13.0 to internal customers by the end of this week. > Most of the remaining items are independently validated and will be integrated over November in a series of point releases. > We are targeting a wide release with v13.3 with most of the above improvements for AI4 vehicles around Thanksgiving! TLDR: Things I find worth noting: * Actually Smart Summon release to Europe, China and other regions of the world (Overseas users rejoice! Though I'm sure local regulations will nerf this in some way) * Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities (Yay) * Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles (This one should be interesting, and is also needed) * Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage (I'm honestly excited about this one, it's a long time coming in my opinion) At this point, I remain firm in my belief that mass rollout of v13 is going to be this year's Christmas update, with Ai4 users seeing it for Thanksgiving first. v13 is likely a "line in the sand" because it'll allow the car to go in reverse and park itself and such. If you have FSD, I think this year's Christmas update is going to be pretty lit...

That all sounds great unless you’re one of the millions of cars with HW3. At least I know I can stop checking for the update every day.

Keep in mind that, at the moment, we're speeding our way to our Christmas update. I'm fairly confident that the plan is likely going to be to release v13 to Ai4 folks by Thanksgiving, and the rest of the fleet by Christmas, with the Ai4 folks giving Tesla the needed feedback to tune it for us HW3 peons. But yeah, the lag is going to suck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxG0tbFqDnU

Hopefully. I never end up getting the Christmas update until like February though lol

Which means V13 is going to be Hardware 4 only, at least initially.

Yeah I saw that but that isn’t going to happen for years. The caveat there was “if HW3 can’t reach unsupervised FSD.” We’re a long way from HW4 even getting there. I went through the 2.5 to 3 upgrade on my first Tesla which took a year to get after it was announced and that was way less cars that had to be retrofitted.

>36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs Was AI4 previously sub-36Hz, sub-full-resolution, or both?

Damn, was hoping to try the end to end before my trial ends, but that’s not what the roadmap is suggesting for HW3

Non-US customers finally getting some love

I could be incorrect here, but I remember hearing AI4 was running in emulation mode where it was emulating AI3 inputs, etc.

Yes, my next question here is whether AI3 is sub-36Hz.

What does "integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities" mean exactly ? are they saying those features will be part of the car even without FSD ?

So is AI4 the same thing as HW4, and AI3 same thing as HW3?

No, that they'll be integrated into the FSD stack. It's not totally clear, but I think it goes with this bullet point: * Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage So, I think it's more about FSD will be able to be engaged while still in Park, and put itself in drive, if necessary, reverse out of the parking space, then drive to destination, where you'll be able to pick a parking space, and the car will insert itself into that parking space, and park itself. Right now FSD can only be engaged if in Drive, even if not moving. It can't reverse And when you get to your destination, you have to disengage FSD, the select a parking space, and begin Autopark. So, "Integrated", as I see it, is rolling all those functions into FSD proper, which, in my opinion, has me *super* excited. You can watch my [Lakeland and back](https://youtu.be/OVBsFYNl7Yo?t=1085) videos on YouTube, and you'll typically hear me complain about how the car should just start presenting options for you to park at the end of the FSD trip, and it sounds like that's what's being implemented, which has me super stoked.

Yes. During the last investor's meeting, where they did voting and stuff, Elon said that they were "rebranding" the Autopilot Hardware to basically just calling it Ai#. Officially we only see it with HW5 being referred to as Ai5, but the community has started retrofitting their use of HW3/HW4 as Ai3/Ai4, etc, etc, where applicable. For now the terms should assumed to be the same, because people take time to require their brains to refer to it as Ai# You'll know when you *need* to cut over on using the right terms when someone comes by and starts needlessly correcting your post to say "Well, actually, starting in early 2024, Tesla started referring to their Autopilot Hardware versions as Ai#", once elitist asshats start doing that, the terms are no longer interchangeable.

Why would it be different from the last release?

Ahh I see very cool! Just got my model 3 last Saturday and unsure if I'll be getting FSD once my trial ends, I just wish basic autopilot would stop at red lights then I'd just not even have a reason for my particular driving to need/want FSD.

Something is sticking in my mind that it's 24Hz.

Hopefully means we will get another trial.

I don't see basic Autopilot ever including stoplight controls. If they reintroduce Enhanced Autopilot, maybe, but I don't see that happening with FSD being cheaper now. For what it's worth, bought FSD for $6,000 back in 2019 and again for $12,000 in 2022. While I'm annoyed that I bought it at $12,000 in 2022 and it's now $8,000, the reality is that *to me* it has been worth it. I started being able to use FSD in October 2021, and while it was pretty trash on first release, having experienced the progress over the last three years, I can somewhat see the light at the end of the tunnel. Most of my drives now are disengagement free, with me mostly having to hit the accelerator to encourage the car to get going. In your case, if you didn't buy used, then you have Ai4 in the car, which means your FSD will outperform mine. At least in the near term, eventually my Ai3 cars will, hopefully, get retrofits, but it'll be a while to be sure.

So HW3 might get end to end highway by the end of the year.

Yeah I got a new 2024 AWD LR in stealth grey, FSD has honestly been pretty amazing it's just that $99 a month price is a bit much for me personally. My commute in the morning consists of getting on a 4 lane highway staying on it for probably 20 minutes there are 3 red lights on that road then I merge onto an interstate am on it for about 10 minutes then get off the interstate and my work is just one red light from the exit. I used FSD to get to work Tuesday, Wednesday and this morning and it's completely hands off. The car does it all and does it confidently and feels very solid. In the afternoons I don't trust it too much with the heavy traffic but it would probably do fine I just don't wanna chance it doing something dumb and messing up my new model 3 that has 400 miles on it.

Correct. Personally, I'm expecting Basic Autopilot to be converted to an FSD mini-model for the holiday update, and the retirement of the legacy Autopilot code on vehicles with the FSD computer. This seems the natural path forward to save on storage utilization from, essentially, having two different self driving software implementations on the vehicles.

That's understandable. Bright side is that, since it is a subscription, you can pay for it when you want it, and not when you don't. I paid $12,000 for it on my 2022 Model Y Performance, and I work from home. So... lol.

I don't think that's been the case for a couple months now

Oh! Even better then!

Goodnight , HW3....

Yea, the timing of this free trial seems weird if a significant improvement is 1-2 months away. Granted that’s assuming the timeline is accurate and it’s actually a large improvement. Would love it if they did free trials more often even if they are shorter. Would also love to know if they got 10x the customers if they charged $10, or 4x if they charged $25, etc. I feel like that’s possible. To me in its current state it’s not worth $99 but at $25 I’d probably do it, and I don’t think I’m alone there.

"Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles" does the car listen? How?

We're still getting updates, it's just that they're prioritizing HW4, then backporting it to HW3. This was always going to happen.

Probably using the microphone in the car. Which present an interesting thing to test. How is the car going to react when you're playing music that has emergency sirens in it?

In the last earnings call, Elon mentioned doing a trial for each large upgrade to give people an opportunity to try the new and improved.

Not to be the elitist asshat, but the whole AI# is in reference to the whole stack which started as they moved to the new end-to-end FSD model. AI3 being the optimized model for hw3 & hw3. AI4 being the “full” model & hw4, AI5 being the “full” model & hw5. Seeing how there is some segmentation across the board, people with hw3 can be in 1 of 4 different groups, AP, EAP, FSD, & FSD “AI3”, it does make some sense to figure out a good way to differentiate since its probably better than “post v12.5.4” but I don’t think it’ll ever not be interchangeable when it comes to just the hardware

Since the model S/X refresh, Tesla has 4 directional microphones outside the car which was used for ANC, probably using those.

Really? Because I was always (until recently) told that AI3 had everything it needed for fully autonomous driving. Prioritizing new hardware over old in software updates is the first step towards deprecation of that older hardware.

Ain’t no way that in-car mic is going to hear the fire engine 100 feet behind me, while I’m belting out Christina on Caraoke!! “♫ *Iiiiiii’m a genie in a bottle baaaaybe!!* ♫“ (sorry, I just saw the Fall Guy movie and that scene is stuck in my head)

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Tesla knows HW3 can't do fully unsupervised. They'll try to squeak it across the finish line, but based on statements made on the last earnings call, it's pretty clear that they're most likely going to do an HW3.5 type thing, where they'll just upgrade the computers, or the computer and slightly different cameras. That said, they're cars, they're always going to depreciate. Elon says a lot of puffery, and you need to listen to everyone *except* him.

Imagine one day it will be 120hz. The car will literally see the world in slow motion. Not sure if it matters seeing you can only break and swerve so fast.

Interesting. What year was that?

This is great, I hope these monthly “roundups” continue.

Sucks for me as I leased a 2023 M3 in Nov 2023 and realized 6 months later it was already a dead end platform. They should have moved hw4 into the model 3 when they did it on the Y. It's like they had excess inventory and shoveled the parts into the lowest priced car

Totally agree and would be safer for drivers and improve autopilot accident statistics

Improved v12.5.x models for AI3 city driving - Here I was hoping we would get end to end on HWY before thanksgiving... Would have loved to be able to use it for holiday travel..... SMH

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This is the nature of technology and improvements. People took ownership of Legacy Model S/X vehicles when a refresh was around the corner and were pissed that their brand new 2020 Model S was now a "Legacy" product, receiving fewer updates than cars with landscape screens. Wait until summer next year when, I think, Tesla will release Juniper. You'll see all the people who bought a Model Y in the first half of 2025 complaining that they now have a Legacy Model Y.

I maintain that the goal is end to end highway for all by Christmas.

Non the less, extremely disappointing.. Thanksgiving travel is one of the busiest of the year. All those with AI4 and paid $thousands less than those with AI3 are set.

I think it has to be around a 90Hz or 120Hz tick to be L4, frankly — 36Hz is not likely to be enough.

I have 12.5.6.1 and it did a rolling “California stop” at a red light. Pretty impressed. It also blew through a flashing red light cross walk so it’s evolving into a normal person driver.

Pretty sweet. I dream of 3D maps and buildings in our maps and FSD visualizations.

Oh I definitely don’t listen to the crap he spews, but saying things like “this was always going to happen” as if people are the ones at fault for being lied to is kind of wild.

It's never been more clear. HW3 is EOL.

have you expected anything similar in previous years? personally, I thought this was the goal for V11 back in 2022 when visualizations were standardized between highway and city.. I then thought it was the goal for V12 in 2023 when they were promising big leaps in fsd ability.. It may very well be the goal for V13 in 2024, but I'm less optimistic than you given I've already seen 2 holiday updates come and go without FSD visualizations trickle down, not to mention in both of those years the big fsd update was delayed by months for general population (e.g. v11 didn't go 'wide' until 11.3 in March 2023. v12 didn't go 'wide' until 12.3 in March 2024). At this point I'd expect similar for V13. Maybe, *maybe* it'll go wide to AI4 cars by Christmas. But I don't expect in the next 4 weeks for it to go wide to AI4 and then wide to AI3 and beyond just 4 weeks after that. It's just too fast of a turnaround time given what we've seen in the past.

Yeah but at least the current model ys have HW4. My question is how long until HW4 becomes the same situation as HW3. I feel like the goal post will just keep moving

They're absolutely going to drag it out. The whole thing is going to be really expensive for them, given a whole different part needs to be designed and produced given HW3/4 have different form factors. Personally the whole thing's a bit maddening because we have two Tesla Model Ys in the family and the HW4 person doesn't even use cruise control and the HW3 person has a FSD subscription and uses it daily. I've had the chance to compare the two during free trials and the HW4 car is SO much better with the same version of 12.5, I think most HW3 people don't even realize how far behind they are even if they get the same version number.

I hope not. That's unnecessary clutter that would drag on the MCU's performance

HW3 having an EOL date was clear the moment HW4 was released.

Elon said they'd have Ai5 hardware ready to go by the end of 2025, so HW4 will probably be EOL by the end of 2026 or 2027. Was in one of the investor meetings. Pretty sure Ai5 will debut with Juniper, like Ai4 debuted with Highland.

Damn that would suck. I bought my model y a year ago and these juniper updates are giving me slight fomo that I didn't wait although I still like the vehicle a lot. But if that's true then that's even more of a reason to just have waited

I hope that v13 is able to be back ported to HW3 or they figure out some upgrade/retrofit path for HW3 vehicles. Makes me not want to get a Juniper Y when it's released.

The audio input is cool. What I need is voice input for short term navigation. I need it to understand basic voice commands like "take a left here", or "let's take the highway", or "pull into the driveway", "go", or "watch out". Too many times, the navigation chooses a route I don't like - an awkward left turn, or side streets instead of the main road. I want to be able to nudge it to my liking.

So, when you zoom in on FSD development and Christmas updates, yeah. It's what I expect. Keep in mind that one of the 2019 updates, just before Christmas, was improved Autopilot performance. The 2019 Christmas update itself introduced Smart Summon. Christmas 2020 introduced a new UI, with the current visualization/map split we have now. Christmas 2021 brought us vision based autopark. Etc, etc, you can look up the other updates. FSD's versioning, however, has been tied to the process by which it self drives. * FSD v10 was basically "Self-driving on rails", with it trying to leverage map lines from sites like OSM. It was very mechanical in its behavior * FSD v11 started to lean more on vision, but it was still based on C++ coding and such. * FSD v12 has been a goal of making everything in it end to end neural nets. * FSD v13 should be about tightening up making a Robotaxi, with things like going in reverse, and starting FSD from being in Park, and generally bolting in more things that currently aren't connected in v12. When you understand the underbody of FSD, each version *has* been leaps forward, albeit with some regressions as a result of the training process changing. FSD v10 to v11 was a re-write, and v11 to v12 as a *massive* rewrite. v13 is building on top of v12, so we should see bigger leaps forward now, because Tesla feels they're on the right track now. It's also been stated by Teslascope on X, who has conversations with Tesla folks regularly, that FSD mini-models are on the books. I wouldn't be surprised if they *don't* make it, and it gets pushed to summer, but with the release of end to end highway, Tesla's likely going to go whole hog on trying to kill off the legacy Basic Autopilot code to improve performance as a whole.

The thing about buying a Tesla is that you're *always* going to want to wait for the next thing to come out of them. I bought a Model Y in 2022, missed out on HW4 by about three months, and paid $25,000 more than if I'd waited about three months. Sometimes you win, sometimes, not so much.

“All AI4 users“ meaning all AI4 users in the US or actually *all* AI4 users, including those located in the rest of the world? 🧐

I'm keeping an eye on Juniper and am considering jumping to it when it is released, however, I suspect they won't do FSD transfers to it right away. It took the Cybertruck a few months before they started allowing it. Albeit, until recently, FSD was included.

At least you leased. You can’t buy it out anyway so you’ll be moving to a new car in a couple of years.

Got HW3 with a MY 2024 RWD (Produced in Germany)

Likely just in the US. They want to push it more globally, but I don't think we're there yet with regulations over seas, *At most*, I think we see FSD code replacing Basic Autopilot over seas on Ai4 vehicles.

I suspect they got more than 2x the number of subscribers when they dropped it to $100 from $200. I agree, they probably still arent at the right balance. I also think if they would cover accidents and damage while it is in use that would cause subscriptions to skyrocket. Until they get to that point its clear they arent confident in it themselves.

That sucks right?

How do I know if hw3 or hw4

It is a hit in the face that you receive the 5 year old HW3 while the HW4 was released over a year ago.

Even without adding new features, the new code replacing the old basic Autopilot crap would be huge!

Yup, I believe you are absolutely correct here. Say you're on the highway driving at 100km/h. That's about 27.7 m/s. At 36Hz you could have an object move .8 meter closer in between frames assuming it's at rest. If you need to calculate the speed and direction of said object you need at least 2 frames and 3 for acceleration, that's 2.4m before being able to validate if the object is moving or not.

At the moment, I think you have to look at the repeater cameras. If they have a red tint to them, then they're HW4. If they don't, it's HW3. If you have a Highland Model 3, you have HW4. If you have a 2023 Model Y produced starting around January, you have HW4.

God, I just want them to fix phantom breaking. It was good for a while but the last few builds I just cannot use. It has almost got me rear ended several times.

> Full rollout of end-to-end highway driving to all AI4 users, targeted for early next week, including enhancements in stop smoothness, less annoying bad weather notifications, and other safety improvements It would be nice to get these for HW3 too, or do you think keeping annoying their biggest base is the way to go?

If the CEO of any other car company was so wrong on everything they say to the point where there's almost no way even they can believe what they're saying we'd crucify them. This sub has such a "lol, that's just Elon" outlook on him, like he's a bumbling sitcom dad that promised us a treehouse but actually built himself a shed that later collapsed on him and sent him to the hospital to learn no lessons for the next episode.

November is typically the month they use to get things polished for Christmas. Tesla's already stated that the current plan is to build for Ai4, then optimize for Ai3. Basically they can build inefficient code for Ai4, then tune it to work on Ai3. Those of us on Ai3 get releases slower, and less frequently, but FSD development gets to keep moving full steam ahead.

Even at 36hz, you get 7 frames in under 200ms. That's still solidly under average human reaction times.

First I’m hearing of that. The microphones are in the headrests, I thought.

Actually, it might matter big time for estimating stationarity, speed more generally and acceleration. Things like navigating busy stop sign intersections may be helped, and maybe less fantom braking for looks-like-it-might-be-moving parked cars

Yeah, but since they separated them from HW3 which they only said "improved city driving", it sucks that these annoyances will linger longer for HW3 vehicles.

You really only need 2 frames to establish vectors or 3 frames to increase confidence. The faster something is traveling the harder it is to alter its vector in a short time period. The last 7 frames would likely be more evidence than you actually require for solid probabilities for the various objects.

True re getting a bit hosed with HW3. But in fact Tesla has stuck by HW3 longer than is strategically necessary - both in deploying it and trying to make fsd work on it. They’ve been trying to ignore Moore’s law, by not leaving room to be upgradable to liquid cooling of hw4, sticking with hw3 for 4 full years while other chip makers (in computers, not cars) usually update at least once in 2y, and faster recently. They are kind of stubbornly saying hw3 is good enough but it will be somth like 10x slower than AI5 chip, which I’m guessing is what will be needed to truly have better than human FSD

I have doubts about v13 for AI3 this year, if ever. End-to-end highway started rolling out to HW4 on 10/22, and this roadmap details plans through Thanksgiving (11/28) without mentioning end-to-end highway for AI3. To me, that indicates that AI3 is *more than* 37 days behind AI4. I think AI4 will be lucky to get v13 by Christmas and AI3, if it ever gets it, won't get it until at least January 2025, but more likely February or March. I could see AI3 getting end-to-end highway in the Christmas update, though.

No. I don't think the lag will be that severe. Normally you see a major release, followed by a bunch of polish releases. That's what we'll see with Ai4, and then the most polished one will get released to Ai3. I would be shocked if Ai3 doesn't get v13by summer at the latest.

2023 Model Y didn’t convert over to HW4 until May, at least in the US.

I received the free sample FSD along with everyone else. Not sure how to tell what version running, but here are some comments in the short time: It struggles with a slow, rush hour merge in that it doesn't recognize the "zipper". I think it would have avoided an accident had I not intervened, but it did not handle the situation properly. There are several 2 lane left turns near my house, and the navigation is just lost. As above, the car could get around the turn, but would not be in the correct position for the next action to reach the selected destination - it picks the wrong lane. The car can do some things, but putting together the full picture is not there yet.

Probably got my dates mixed. I just now it was in 2023, and after the Model 3.

I’ll have a new vehicle long before they start upgrades. This one is at 3.5 years now which is probably the longest I’ve hung onto one. Just waiting for another 10-15k drop on cybertruck.

Yeah I hear ya. I've had my model 3 for a handful of years now and I've enjoyed FSD since I got access in 2021 so I've seen the progress over the years and know of their ambitious holiday updates. It's just that when I saw your V13 xmas comment I had flashbacks to myself thinking the same thing the past 2 years. You hadn't answered that part where I asked if you'd thought so in previous years so [I searched your comments for 'christmas'](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nakatomi2010/search/?q=+christmas&type=comments) and it appears you're just not as jaded as I am this year, since you've had similar predictions to me in [2023](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1667w4m/comment/jyidtho/) and [2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/x0mcv7/comment/im8sp5n/). But who knows, maybe this is the year. Maybe they'll limit it to AI4 cars somewhat arbitrarily in attempts to sell more new cars

FSD v13 was supposed to be THE version that would find its way to European customers. I hope this is still happening.

I feel more confident about it happening this year, since they've done two FSD rewrites, but yeah, I'm not holding my breath for it.

If you scroll down to the bottom of the app, it should tell you what FSD version you're running. It's either 12.3.6, which is an older version, or 12.5.4.x or 12.5.6.x. If you're seeing lane decision issues, send an email to v12experience@tesla.com, and navfeedback@tesla.com

It's dependent on regulations in Europe, but yes, this should be that one, if they allow it.

I see. 12.5.4 is what I am running.

Honestly, I expect Tesla doing trials to happen fairly often going forwards. Great way to educate people, and get more data/feedback (assuming they can handle/process it intelligently)

12.5.4 is a fine version to be running. FSD performance just varies from region to region. The reality is that the *less* Teslas you have in an area, the worse FSD performs, because you're not sending as much data back to Tesla for them to tune with. I've bene using it in my area for three years now, and I've been sending them a shit ton of data and feedback, and it's working *fantastic* in my neck of the woods. Folks with trial versions in regions that don't have a lot of Teslas need to just keep sending Tesla more feedback via those two emails.

> “this was always going to happen” Nakatomi is right though. Assuming that HW3 does have the capability, it's obvious that the older hardware would stop being the primary platform for development and whatever rollout for the older versions would derive for whatever is made for the newer platform.

Screw fomo. You bought a car that you enjoy and that will last a long time. Unless you always planned to resell for a certain amount (which is totally on you if that's what you thought), you spent your money well. Would you rather Tesla slow development to make you feel better about your previous purchase or keep making improvements? Those other improvements to the newer models don't make your current model worse so don't worry about it. Don't let it mess up your enjoyment.

Thanks! You're right 😎

3x model size and 3x context length! Pretty sure the capabilities of AI3 have been surpassed.

I'm pretty sure that is over or will end soon. The power of the hardware restricts the size of the model Tesla can train. They have likely reached the limits of HW3 and the new "native HW4" model with 3x model and context size surely eclipses HW3 capabilities.

For future, just put cancel in front of x. https://xcancel.com/Tesla_AI/status/1851911795381805367

This happens with **every** technology platform. Look at Samsung. If you have the latest model, you get updates really quick. If you don't, you can be waiting six months to a year before you get the same firmware as the flagship product. That's how technology works. Tesla is unique, however, in that they offer retrofits. As long as they offer them for HW3, then I'll be content.

When someone says "HW3 is fully capable of full self driving" that means they claim 2 things: First that it is in principle/theoretically capable (which is hard to disprove), and second that they will actually try for real to make it work (which they clearly are). They can not claim that they know for sure that it is capable of full self driving because they are talking about a future research and development plan, so obviously nobody can know how things will actually turn out. If a presidential candidate says "We will win this election" is that a lie? I'd say no, it just signifies that they believe it to be in principle possible, and that they will try their hardest to achieve it.

They're going to solve the HW3 problem by just running out the clock. The initial Model 3s are about to be out of battery & drive train warranties. People will unload them right about that time which will drastically reduce the amount of HW3 that Tesla has to deal with as the resells won't claim to be unsupervised capable.

I mean, I actively use X, so I'm going to keep going there.

Agreed. I think at this point we need to wait for the retrofit plans, however, I'm concerned that it will take a couple years to get there, like it did with the CCS retrofit.

New to my Tesla. Whats AI4?

Ai just replaced HW in terms of numbering the FSD hardware versions. Tesla called HW5 Ai5, which means that HW3 and 4 becomes Ai3 and 4 respectively.

2.4m is roughly half a car length, nobody should be following that closely at 100km/h and if visibility is so bad you \[or the cameras\] can't see significantly further ahead then you probably shouldn't be driving that fast.

What are audio inputs? The car will listen for emergency vehicles? It doesn’t have an external mic. Will it use the one inside the car? What if I play a song with police sirens

The issue is that if it truly is a 4x improvement then the price should actually increase. Right now, i think it should probably cost less than $100/month but if it truly improves and is a legit L4 self driving then it should cost more than $100. If it’s true L5 like Waymo, then the price should be more than $500/month since you can run a business and make money with the car.

That's the same concern I brought up. I imagine it'll be a blend of lights and siren, but yeah, going to be interesting how it works.

I mean at some point HW3 will be left alone, it doesn’t make sense to continue to support legacy hardware. I know some people who have HW3 their vehicle is only a couple of years old, but HW3 is much older than that. Tesla has done a great job so far with HW3, but I can’t wait to see what focusing on HW4 brings.

Correct.

Just a thought, they could just want a boatload more training data.

European fingers crossed

Whats camera cleaning?

It is nowhere near a legit L4 system though, and it wont be for years, if ever. There is no reason for Tesla to actually release to consumers a rideshare "make money with your car while you sleep" type program. They would have ever reason to keep that internal. I know Musk has talked about it, but I just dont see it ever happening. If it does go external, it would be a B2B model where they supply it to Uber and Uber operates those vehicles, for example. That means they can still offer a consumer version of the software for the rest of us that doesnt include the ability to make money with your car. Speaking of, the value has to be comparable to the value you receive. For a $600 car payment and $500 (or insert whatever number here), I could just take an Uber everywhere, so why do I need FSD? I really think the price will need to be between $50 and $150 and have the liability shift to go with it for it to have a massive uptake. Cut that price in half for FSD being "really good" but without the liability shift (aka, you always have to pay attention).

The MCU in the model S/X has PS5 equivalent performance. It’s more than enough to render buildings and other 3D objects.

interesting, I thought they hadn't started training for HW4 yet and it was still gonna be emulating HW3

I thought I read the front cameras were 24hz, higher resolution and everything else at 36

Check the resolution of the video files.

*Used* to have PS5 performance. They only built those MCU for about a year or so. They don't include the discrete GPU anymore.

Oh that sucks.

Yeah, the change was made some time ago.

Non-equivalent comparison. A candidate isn’t selling a product based on those claims. Consumer law ≠ election law.

This, they will only have do do it for a small fraction of vehicles.

If Apple sells me a laptop and says “this laptop will make you levitate!” But then later rescinds that and says “oh sorry, the NEXT laptop you buy will make you levitate”, then your example would be valid.

> It is nowhere near a legit L4 system though, and it wont be for years, if ever. It damn is near one in California where there's more robust training data. I can take it 100+ miles pretty much anywhere around where I live and rarely ever have to make an intervention. > There is no reason for Tesla to actually release to consumers a rideshare "make money with your car while you sleep" type program. They would have ever reason to keep that internal. I know Musk has talked about it, but I just dont see it ever happening. Elon has talked about this repeatedly both at the Robotaxi event and in earnings calls in the last few years. He absolutely intends to allow anyone to become a "driver" for the Tesla network because it directly competes against Uber and undercuts them if Uber can't find a driverless solution, potentially taking big market share. > Speaking of, the value has to be comparable to the value you receive. For a $600 car payment and $500 (or insert whatever number here), I could just take an Uber everywhere, so why do I need FSD? For a $600 monthly car payment, you could lease your car out as a driverless car at night or when you're at work. You could easily make way more than $500/month doing that, negating the car payment. Meaning you could make your money back on your car within a few years. Uber drivers today make thousands of dollars a month. Perhaps they'd separate personal vs. business licenses for FSD, but the value of FSD at that point would definitely outweigh the $500/month price. If you think you'd rather just take an Uber everywhere, that's exactly Elon's point. He's going to undercut Uber by 40% (the margin that drivers take from Uber) and he believes people will no longer need to buy vehicles and instead just use driverless cabs/vans/buses everywhere. > I really think the price will need to be between $50 and $150 and have the liability shift to go with it for it to have a massive uptake. Elon explicitly said he aims to release Unsupervised FSD next year, which would be that exact shift in liability from the driver to Tesla. Sure he may get delayed to 2026, but it's explictly on the roadmap for them.

In before we have the same comments being written about HW4 vs. HW5 come 2028. I remember the upgrade from MobilEye to AP 2.0. Then 2.0 to 2.5, saying "everything the car needs...." blah blah. Then the 2.5 to 3.0 upgrade, which again was "everything the car needs..." Now we're at HW4, and they're already making discreet allusions about future hardware upgrades. I've never been a hater, but 8 years of "coming next year" has worn me down a bit. My goal is to drive this 2018 M3 until the wheels fall off, so we'll see if the old man Elon meme saying "FSD next year" holds true. I certainly hope it doesn't.

If Apple retrofits your laptop into levitating though, technically, they got it.

Exactly. Shame. But hey elon said if hw3 cant pull of full fsd free upgrades are a coming.

Cant deliver *unsupervised driving.*

> End-to-end highway started rolling out to HW4 on 10/22, and this roadmap details plans through Thanksgiving (11/28) without mentioning end-to-end highway for AI3. To me, that indicates that AI3 is more than 37 days behind AI4. End-to-end HW is still only on ~10% of AI4 vehicles. If we take Elon's words at face value, that getting AI4 builds to work well on AI3 is expensive (by labor or by compute to distill them or some other metric), then I think the appropriate measurement is when a release is fully wide on AI4. They wouldn't put extra effort into backporting models that they had some reason to not release wide in the first place, if it means reworking it anyway. It's difficult to say what exactly is involved, and how hands-on it is, but regardless I think they've established AI4 as a testing platform and AI3 will only be getting backports of stable releases going forward. But I don't think "AI3 is more than 37 days behind AI4" is the correct assessment, when 90% of AI4 vehicles are not being compared against.

How does software improve camera cleaning? 🤔

But they said FSD v13 in October is now Thanksgiving. If I don't see it I don't believe it

*If I had to guess*, they're talking about the wipers, and possibly the outgassing issues we've been seeing.

I've always assumed the v13 date was to Tesla employees.

It changed already with 12.5 I think? The update that first went only for HW4. Afte that, the made a smaller model that can run on HW3 and be similar enough to the larger one that runs on HW4.

It won't be on slow motion, it's real-time. 120 Hz is "Slow-motion" with your phone's camera, because the video is shown to you at 60 FPS. so you seeing 60 FPS video of something. That originally was 120, you'll see it at 0.5 speed. If you'll see a 30 FPS video of it, it will run at 0.25 times... And if you'll see it in a 120 FPS video, it will run normally.

> rolling “California stop” at a red light Don't think they're supposed to, they explicitly got smacked by the NHTSA about that which is why stop signs now suck

I’m waiting for the announcement that upgrades for HW3 are available. Given Musk’s comment about it, I would suspect someone is at least starting to pencil out that plan.

Presumably they could do "noise cancelling" by ignoring whatever sounds the system is outputting to the speakers \[although that wouldn't help if the music was being blasted by a nearby vehicle\]. Do sirens from music actually sound the same as real world sirens to a NN presumably drawing from multiple microphones?

The only intervention I “routinely” make are two: 1. Navigation related (in the wrong lane for a turn). 2. Failing to get in the correct lane soon enough in heavy traffic so missing an exit.

You referring to highway, city streets, or both?

Both

Why should HW3 cars pay the same subscription cost as HW4 if we can't get the same experience?

This will always be true. In my opinion, the free trials are a precursor to just rolling FSD into the price of the car. All of the value will be in robotaxi, not selling software. This is a return to the old IBM philosophy.

As they add training compute the gap will shrink for rolling out to various hardware versions. Not clear yet if the experience on AI3 will catch up.

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Thanks for posting here so I don’t have to go to X.

Same for me. It’s quite impressive. The people who say it’s nowhere close to L4 have clearly not tried it enough in areas with good training data.

Elon is saying by early next year it will be a L4 system. Not that he hasn’t said it before, but it seems there are at least somewhat a concept of a plan now.

Anyone know what the actual stats for miles per interventions are at now? They seem to quoting 5x , 3x , 6x in miles per intervention but I think it’s still at like 500-1000 levels? I don’t know if they just overquote these measure or it was just really low to start with. With full autonomous you’d need to get to 500k to 1mil miles per intervention I think

they have already announced that if HW3 is not capable of unsupervised FSD everyone will get a free hardware upgrade. most likely not to HW4 but HW3.5 (cameras don't need to be changed, just the computer)

they have already announced that if HW3 is not capable of unsupervised FSD everyone will get a free hardware upgrade. most likely not to HW4 but HW3.5 (cameras don't need to be changed, just the computer)

Everyone who purchased FSD outright.

Close-following isn't the issue. Think of cross-traffic red-light runners, deer on the road, and kids and dogs jumping into the street from behind vehicles. At 36Hz, motion-forecasting performance is significantly degraded. Think about how hard it is to tell what's going on during a lot of action scenes in (mostly 24fps) movies. That's the same effect here.

What’s cringe about an alternate of “for those that don’t want to go on X?”

My point was that in the raised 100 km/h highway driving context that with safe follow distances and reasonable visibility that you have far more than the "1/2 car length" of time or travel to identify a sudden unexpected change and respond to it. Speed, context and visibility are relevant even in the lower speed \[generally lower visibility, highly dynamic\] situations you are raising. Human reaction time is \~200-250 ms \[and road design and speeds are built around us\] so 36 hz or 28 ms is already more responsive. During that human \~200-250 ms response time, the AI got 7-9 frames \[in addition to however many preceding frames the human may or may not have prior to noticing the situation\] for motion-forecasting of the entire 360 situation which along with momentum seems not only workable but possibly exceeding human performance. So sure, 120 Hz or 8ms ticks increases response time and resolution, which in it of itself isn't undesirable and likely inevitable with hardware improvements; but not sure we've established that 36 Hz isn't enough or more to the point what the optimal frequency and point of diminishing returns might be. \[Edit: Or I could be wrong, crank up the FPS. Perhaps more interesting are "event cameras" or "neuromorphic cameras" which does away with FPS and rather individual pixels asynchronously signal changes; it not only enables microsecond temporal resolution (which address blur and jitter concerns) and reduces power but better handles difficult lighting like sun and shadows\]

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Interesting reaction. All I did was share an alternative to X since OP did a copy paste—no big agenda here. Sometimes people prefer options and you can’t read comments if you don’t have an X account. This allows it.

Is FSD actually getting any better with each release or does each one just release different issues?

It legitimately gets better. There's some two steps forward one step back shit, but as a whole it's marching forward

Thank you for genuinely replying and not just down voting me. I was on the reddit thread talking about the zoox ceo drama and Musk’s response. Zoox ceo basically said Tesla fsd will never be what Musk promises (paraphrasing). I don’t own a Tesla yet so haven’t had the pleasure of trying it for myself. This is why I am asking, I have been following fsd news since v10

Ive been using FSD since v10 in October 2021. Ive got three use of FSD testing under my belt. It's gone from being unable to do turns properly, to basically driving itself. It isn't without its flaws, like the sun blinding it, if the sun is still just the wrong angle, but as a whole, it is VERY solid

Yea, but I'm sort of an FSD junkie. Watch all the videos etc, but now to find out that most of what I'm watching is just a fantasy to me for at least another 2 years is pretty annoying.

Was using it on trial and on the highway yesterday. Glad I was paying attention but the fucking thing almost launched me and my kid into a side rail. Luckily I grabbed the wheel and corrected it but hell to the no for me.

Would be curious on where that was. I've never had an experience remotely like thay

Just my personal anecdote: I've ridden in lots of Tesla's up until when I got my model Y performance in September. I'm in the position of having had the prior FSD to begin, and the update and its patches since October. It is notably, I might even say remarkably worse since the new updates. In particular it's making frequent stupid road decisions (like drifting to the center median and potentially causing a crash when trying to exit at my home exit, which it didn't do before) and for lack of a better description, steering like an old woman or unskilled teenager to the point that I disengage it even on easy lanes on the freeway. I love the car overall, but I have to agree with public sentiment about them being borderline reckless with beta testing unsafe and untested systems in the cars. I will not be continuing my subscription, maybe give it a try in a year or two or talk to friends with Teslas about it who are actively using and have less of a sense of self-preservation than I do

I currently have Basic Autopilot and am afraid that the second I purchase the upgrade to FSD, they’re gonna come out and just upgrade everyone with Basic to FSD for free to stop supporting the Basic code. This has been my experience every step of the way with Tesla, having purchased my Y at peak prices in Q4 of ‘22, right before they started slashing prices. Am I being irrationally stubborn?