In the 7:30 of this Kim Java video, Lars says “good to go” when Kim asks if HW3 will get FSD. This might give a little more confidence as not coming from Elon. Thoughts?
It is not good to go.
I have a HW3 and HW4 here right now, both on 12.5. HW4 works surprisingly well. Biggest leap forward in FSD in years. HW3 doesn't have the camera positions or quality necessary. I'm sorry, but it doesn't. I'm not even convinced HW4 will be good enough for unsupervised in all situations. I think we're looking at HW5. I say this as someone who has had very single iteration, starting at HW1 over the past \~10 years.
I'm waiting for AI5/HW5.
That’s fine though. Just reimburse HW3 people that paid for FSD. Right?
If Tesla unveiled a vehicle that cost <$300 000 & was built solely for FSD (ugly but functional). Then I would consider it possible to achieve FSD with that vehicle within 3 years. Only Tesla is pitching their ever cheapest car to be FSD... sorry I don't by it.
Exactly what difference are you seeing between 3 and 4?
That cab has a front bumper camera. It is not the same as HW4 cars let alone HW3
Isn’t the difference in camera quality mainly in terms of human-visual quality for dashcam/sentry use? The computer doesn’t care if an image is pretty or has an orange colour filter over it, it just has to be recognisable.
Doesn’t HW4 have the same camera position?
All cars need a bumper cameras. With current configuration it will always struggle in intersections since it has to pull forward a lot to “see”. Blind spots are too common to not have bumper cameras. A bumper camera (or 2, one in each side) will make the car much safer. There’s been many times when I’m trying to turn left or right (on fsd) and a huge suv or truck pull next to me and completely block cameras. So car can’t tell if it’s safe to turn. And pulls forward too slow and too much when it happens. Coming out of my neighborhood is always tricky since there’s a huge brick wall that blocks a clear view of the right. Car always creeps forward to take a better look and it’s made dangerous turns before that I had to take over to prevent a rear end crash.
What makes you decide even ai4 not possible? unless you are an ai expert from one year future, or or you got phd from hinton's lab, I am genuinely courious how you can tell 32GiB 200TOPS will never archieve any future breakthrough.
100% agree. I have been advocating for perpendicular cameras near the headlights for optimal positioning. Either that, or a camera in the top left and top right of the windshield aiming in the opposite direction. A high-resolution fisheye bumper in the front might be workable, but I'm concerned about rain and snow, especially being so low to the ground. The biggest problem with the current repeater is that it's too far back and low. No humans are ever that low when driving. We can see over many parked cars, signs, bushes, and guardrails. The repeaters, even on HW4, can't without creeping dangerously.
I don't need a PhD to know the cameras can't see through physical objects. You're throwing around big words, but they're meaningless in this context. If none of the cameras can see a car that could potentially hit you, no amount of AI will help. I've discussed this extensively with a friend who got their PhD in physics at Stanford. They did their dissertation on autonomous driving and they agree with me on camera positioning. If you go back in my posts far enough, you'll see I said this about HW3 before HW4 changed the aim on the cameras. Still not enough, but closer to what I said would be needed. EDIT: Here's a post I wrote from two years ago ([source](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/10lcic3/comment/j5xwrkq/)): "HW3 also has significant trouble making unprotected right turns. There isn't a good camera view to do so safely, even with creeping." And further down in the thread, again two years ago: " It simply doesn’t have a sensor suite capable of being multiple times safer than an average human. For example, unprotected right turns. It doesn’t have the FOV or resolution required to see approaching high-speed traffic to safely merge, even with significant creeping. There are bushes and signs and parked cars that we can see over, but the current camera (lower than waist height) can’t. Humans can lean forward and turn their head. They also have significantly higher resolution. Perhaps the rumored 5MP dual camera setup will fix that. But you can’t upgrade software to overcome sensor deficiencies."
Camera positions? Hw3 and hw4 have the same exact camera positioning.
3 is significantly more jerky, doesn’t see as far, much less confident.
It’s not about being pretty. It’s about raw pixels and amount of information
Likely not coming to 3/Y for a while tho.
But.... But the end 2 end!!!1
Probably resolution and frequency
Only your experience with v12 is of value. Everything that came before is moot as they were built on the wrong software paradigm. Has your experience of HW3 on v12 seen improvement and why do you think it will stop improving?
HW3 has not improved nearly as well as HW4. And I don't believe it can improve much further because of (1) lack of resolution (2) lack of field of view (3) suboptimal location and angle of the side repeaters for unprotected turns. I do not believe HW4 will be able to reach full\* unsupervised FSD without a high-resolution wide-angle bumper camera or, better yet, perpendicular repeaters closer to the headlights. Alternatively, cameras in the top corners of the windshield area aiming toward the opposite direction with a medium focal length for added height. (I'm concerned about the bumper camera being so close to the ground that driving in rain and snow will be severely limited.) \*I do believe HW4 will be able to have portions of unsupervised FSD, like highway driving.
How do we know that’s the hardware and not the maturity of the software? They probably pushed it out the door to meet a quarterly deadline
Elon said 2025. But that is Elon, so...
The hardware is mostly just cameras and the processor that's similar to a graphics card. All that doesn't cost much. Now they're deciding to put it in their cheapest and smallest (a 2 seater) vehicle so they can produce them in mass. Most rideshare rides are just one person. If you need up to 5 you can order a 3 or Y. What do you not believe to be true about any of that?
Not for 3/Y
I can imagine at most a HW5 computer upgrade for older cars. But everything else should see enough improvement via software. HW3 cars can even resolve electronic speed signs now when close by so pixel resolution is adequate.
I hope you're right. Again, as someone who currently has a HW3 and HW4 side by side on 12.5, I don't believe HW3 has the resolution, FOV, or the side repeater positioning necessary. I said this years ago publically before HW4 was announced and made changes that I suggested were necessary. HW4 is a step in the right direction but they didn't go far enough on the cameras.
HW4 is already lacking enough cameras and the correct angles, so it's going to have a short lifecycle. What is on 3/Y is more like HW3.5 anyway...
It will have at least 3 years for people with leases
Because HW3 can't see as far, has lower resolution, and less optimal camera positioning (particularly for unprotected turns).
Model 3 was released in July 2017 with HW2.5 and switched to HW3 April 2019.
Does anyone find it odd that he asks her "Are you using HW3 or HW4?" Ask yourself, why is that his first question? Why is it relevant if both HW3 and HW4 are totally and equally capable? Also, his mouth is saying "good to go" but he's shaking his head no. There's an entire field of study called *incongruent body language*. When someone's words don't match their physical gestures, it often signals a discrepancy between what they're saying and what they truly feel or believe. I'm not saying he's lying, but it could be a sign of uncertainty, especially in light of his initial question.
Again, there are natural limits to HW4, but how do we know that the current differences observed are a result of those limits? It’s speculation.
I have both HW3 and HW4 vehicles. Can't tell the difference between them with current 12.5 FSD.
Well, I have both a HW3 and HW4 right now and the HW3 has the most trouble in the areas I listed. Specifically unprotected right turns. HW3 does it later, at exactly where you'd expect it to, while HW4 does it faster and more confidently, as you'd expect based on the camera outputs I've observed comparing HW3 and HW4. Speculation? Maybe some. But nobody is speculating the camera are vastly superior in position/angle and resolution, which also happens to be where HW4 seems more confident. So, it's a combination of known object data with some speculation. For added background, I enjoy testing things like this and have been paid by Tesla in the past to find a unique security vulnerability. So, it's not like I'm just casually observing here.
That's interesting. The biggest difference, for me, is an unprotected right turn out of my development. It's a side road with a stop sign that turns onto a 50mph highway. I'm sure there are certain drives where you can't tell the difference.
What a dumb image
Cybertruck has HW4 and front cam
Interestingly you can cover the front camera with a sticky note or tape and FSD doesn’t notice on the CT
…not yet
Saying they changed camera position shows you don’t really know what you’re talking about.
I agree. HW3 door pillar cameras give you an error on the screen when simply driving at night 😂 I am surprised we haven’t seen a front bumper camera added yet. It was pretty well rumored to be coming to S/X in March of this year and never showed.
Did they change the angle of the cameras on HW4 vs HW3? Bc they are in the same physical locations
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Yes they did, with a combination of physical angle, lens, and sensor. You can see the results here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcpfeMXM344](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcpfeMXM344) And the physical appearance here: [https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla-HW4-vs-HW3-side-indicator-design-and-specs-comparison-shows-it-can-t-be-retrofit.726575.0.html#news\_intro\_image](https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla-HW4-vs-HW3-side-indicator-design-and-specs-comparison-shows-it-can-t-be-retrofit.726575.0.html#news_intro_image) It's a minor angle change, but everything combined makes a difference.
If it's not already using HW4's superior sensor data, wouldn't that mean HW4 will eventually blow HW3 away when it does? So, yes, you're right. I'm assuming HW4's better data is being used. We already know it's saving superior video to the DashCam folder. If it's not using it yet, and I'm wrong in my assumption, it will eventually be used, right? So the end result will still be the same. EDIT: And yes, I'm making the assumption that both HW3 and HW4 are using similar neural nets. I don't think it's lack of training data considering the duration of use and fleet size, but nobody outside of Tesla could tell us for sure.
No reimbursement needed if they can get unsupervised FSD running on it. It's not even available for HW4 yet, so it'll be a while before we know for sure if they're gonna be able to do it on HW3. In the worst case I'd expect a retrofit of a "HW4 mini" or something like that if it turns out that they need more compute.
Interesting, thank you. So definitely better than HW3 coupled with the improved resolution. They are obviously saying they need the front bumper camera as it’s on the cybertruck and now on the robotaxi/cybercab. Cybertruck for sure needs it bc it’s so big and can’t see the front. Elon said “all cars being sold today” will do unsupervised FSD, so at least that’s out there out loud. But he probably doesn’t even really know yet as he’s been saying that for 10 years.
He has been saying that since \~HW2.5, though. At the same time, 12.5 has restored a bit of my faith that it's possible. I think it needs even better camera placement (like the front bumper), but I'm hopeful HW4 (and maaaybe HW3) can at least do some unsupervised FSD. I think true ("Level 4" or higher) unsupervised is about five years away, maybe with HW5 or HW6. Just think of how fast camera technology is improving. The resolution and dynamic range will be considerably better for the same price as today's cameras.
Yeah I have a new M3P with HW4 on order. I bought FSD this time. It seemed a lot better on HW4 than on my 2021 HW3 (when I had a 30 day trial).
Enjoy the upgrade. I just went from an early M3P to the new 2024 one, and it's better in every way. I'm really impressed.
Yeah it’s just too good to pass up right now with the tax credit and the 0% financing with FSD purchase. I was gunna pay in cash, but now am gunna invest that ~$50k instead! My 2021 LR is fine, but the harsh suspension, Intel chip, HW3, lead acid 12V, Highland refresh, etc. make me want to upgrade. I think this Model 3 is likely the one that stays for awhile.
FSD was promised by Elon on HW2 back in 2016 on the top tier model S... It's always the next HW fix away. -Elon: Wallstreet Just give me some billions & I promise this vehicle will be FSD.
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No way a retrofit is happening if it requires extra cameras to work properly/safely. I also doubt they’ll do a second retrofit on cars that already got one from HW2.5 to HW3. I do hope you’re right though, but I suspect you are wrong.
Doing a HW4 'mini' makes no sense, as that would imply HW4 itself had no reason to exist in the first place.
https://preview.redd.it/9vn07uzkapud1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09a12ca61063d85ac2c7519863410b77b50931ad A beautiful Beast, indeed.
Does a game running on an RTX 3060 imply that an RTX 4090 "had no reason to exist in the first place"? Electronic products get better with each iteration. It would make no sense to stop keeping up with technological development and keep building something that was designed years ago.
> "HW3 also has significant trouble making unprotected right turns. There isn't a good camera view to do so safely, even with creeping." The distance between the side cameras and the front bumper is higher than that between a human's head in the same car and the bumper, sure. But it still is smaller than the human-bumper distance in other vehicles that are allowed to be driven on the road.
noice
>Does a game running on an RTX 3060 imply that an RTX 4090 "had no reason to exist in the first place"? Well for one thing, that's a terrible analogy, as gaming keeps getting more and more computationally complex over time whereas driving doesn't.
How so? When I say "HW4 mini", I mean a smaller version of HW4 that uses less power, but has the same computational capabilities. This would be possible with a process shrink (for example, moving from TSMC N7 to TSMC N3).
Who said it requires extra cameras? HW4 has the same number of cameras as HW3 on the same vehicles. The main concern is compute, not cameras.
Sure. The problem is if HW4 ends up not being enough. Although, even without extra cameras, it would still cost Tesla to retrofit, and I don’t trust Elon to do the right thing anymore.
Because he has no idea who this person is who he’s talking to and if they had an older car with HW2 or HW2.5, the default answer is no, but… I fear too many people are hanging their hat on this quick comment and while Lars is awesome, he’s not in charge of the FSD development and is merely repeating the corporate line about HW3 and HW4, but not actually understanding the nuance of the question.
Driving doesn’t, but the understanding of driving certainly does, given the current state of tech.
And we haven’t hit the limits of HW4 or even HW3 so why worry.
They retrofitted HW3 at no cost to FSD owners when that turned out to be necessary. You don't even need him to "do the right thing". It would be financially beneficial to him to do retrofits to enable more cars to do unsupervised FSD, because unsupervised FSD means robotaxi rides, and robotaxi rides means an insane amount of money. But HW3 could be all that's needed anyway, so this might not matter at all.
I guess we'll find out soon enough.
FSD isn't anywhere near solved yet, so we'll see.
I believe Tesla spends 10B on FSD each year. I’m sure they will calculate the cost of continuing hw3 support vs retrofit. They can decide to retrofit only folks we have subscribed to FSD for at least 3 months, that would reduce the the count
Yes. Yes it does. This is what we call bias and is why anecdotal reports are pretty much worthless in scientific communities and tests need to be blinded.
Comsider that when Apple releases a new A-series chip year after year, they don't go back and die shrink the previous year's offerings. They usually just keep running the same chip indefinitely, with no announced process changes. Why is this? It's pretty simple: *Die shrinks cost money.* Going from 5nm to 3nm means you pay a premium, as there are only a few fabs available globally to do 3nm work. On the other hand, you can just wait a year and your current chip naturally becomes cheaper, because the industry has caught up in capability to produce by then.
You don't know what you are talking about, also owning a HW1 car doesn't qualify your knowledge of anything, these are all baseless assumptions
There's no real evidence of HW4 performing tangibly better
There's nothing wrong with the amount of cameras or their "angles", idk where you guys keep repeating this from. They will literally say HW3 is still on par and you guys will still disagree based on no evidence
I think they know better when it comes to positioning, the whole point of where the current front cameras are is so that they can be cleaned by the wipers. A front bumper camera gets dirty way too easily on the highway, and even on general roads. A bumper camera also doesn't add anything really to visibility, the current setup already sees better than human drivers when it comes to FOV. Sometimes turns take a level of risk even a human driver has to commit to.
Both of them know more than enough of the current internal state of FSD to speak on it lmfao
He's too optimistic with timelines, but this isn't vaporware like it was in 2012. You can literally drive handsfree with current version with interventions being uncommon to rare in frequency.
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I have heard that a thousand times... Elon isn't wrong on principle. FSD will happen. I just don't buy that the cheapest model will be the one to do it. Since it doesn't have any revolutionary hardware or future that makes it leaps better. It's cameras will be plenty lower than on a Model X. Making calculations & safe decisions harder. It has everything working against it, not for.
It doesn't really matter if it costs more or less money. The retrofit in and of itself costs money. So if they need to retrofit HW4 into HW3 cars and they can't do it because of size and power constraints, they can design a "HW4 mini" using a process shrink to make the retrofit work.
>So if they need to retrofit HW4 into HW3 cars and they can't do it because of size and power constraints, If that is the case, then yes, you are correct. Personally, of course, I don't think this will actually happen, and Elon will instead keep stringing HW3 owners along until the heat death of the universe. 🤷♂️
They haven't left FSD owners behind after all these years, so I'm not sure why you think they're going to start doing that now.
Damn you didn’t have to clap back that hard 🤣🤣
Camera position yes but camera quality and specs are different, HW4 has higher resolution cameras and the repeater cams are wider FOV. That means at an intersection the HW4 camera can look towards the side more, particularly if it pulls slightly to the left or right at an intersection. https://imgur.com/hw3-vs-hw4-side-camera-comparison-zq169hG
There is no basis to what you are saying. They validate each car model independently and have never suggested any issues with the current camera array. The model 3 is the same ride height as the Model S so I don't even know what you are talking about.
It absolutely doesn't, simply being a consumer of FSD isn't enough to understand the inner workings enough to magically jump to the conclusions you are making which aren't based in anything tangible. You have no insights further than what they've said publically, and they've never suggested the things you are complaining about. Everytime there's a post about FSD the comments are filled with people who think they know better than Tesla's entire FSD R&D division. It's camera count and placements today, yesterday it was people saying they need Ultrasonic, before that radar, before that Lidar. Ultrasonic, radar, and lidar were addressed by them officially, but camera count and placement being a problem is not something they have suggested as a problem or acted to change.
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Why do you think every other car company in the world is putting their sensors as high as possible on their vehicles? It gets you a better view & better calculation on the actual surroundings. You can put the cameras 10cm of the ground. The car can still estimate. Only the estimation will be far worse than 1m off the ground. When the crowd asked about the promise of HW3 being FSD. Elon sort off avoided answering the crowd. It's always the next HW update away... And if you're Model 3 can be FSD, why buy a separate 2 seat vehicle that can't Supercharge or handle tricky situations. Machine learning isn't linear & the last 5% takes a very long time. Tesla is getting there but, it's still many years away to meet basic legal requirements for FSD.
Respectfully, I really don't care who you are. Your friends having PHDs is the reddit equivalent of my uncle works at Nintendo, it doesn't hold any merit to your understanding. I'm not making assumptions, I'm literally commenting on your assumptions which are still without any merit or evidence given what Tesla has publically discussed and shared, and what they've developed in their two HW4 cars. I have enough of an education to know that ML in one area doesn't make one a subject matter expert completely different ML application that's specific as autonomous driving, especially in this context with Tesla's specific proprietary approach. Simply using FSD unfortunately doesn't make you an expert on how it can be improved on a specifically technical level, nor does lacking education in a field and using your friends PHDs as your own foothold
Does Lars Moravy even work on this part of Tesla? From what i remember he's a Chassis Engineer. So why would we even listen to him about FSD?
This makes sense because we should assume they're not working on multiple versions of the NN but rather adjusting the output for the vehicle's size and characteristics. The CT and RoboTaxi are probably running on a similar version of 12.5, which wouldn't be using the front bumper yet. For now, it's just a parking aid. If I remember correctly, the rear camera wasn't initially used other than as a backup camera.
This is why you need to keep an open mind and be able to challenge your own beliefs: [HW3 vs HW4 repeater photo comparison](https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla-HW4-vs-HW3-side-indicator-design-and-specs-comparison-shows-it-can-t-be-retrofit.726575.0.html) Is it a huge difference? No. But the position and angle *are* changed. This, combined with the new lens and sensor, give a different view for unprotected turns. I have an HW3 and HW4 car here and the Dashcam files are outputting different angles and resolutions, with HW4 seeing into the perpendicular view slightly sooner with less creep. Still don't belive me? Here's a 3rd-party image comparison: [Source](https://i.imgur.com/xfpyONq.png). Note how HW4 has a wider aspect ratio and changed angle. I also made an image that superimposes the two: [Source](https://imgur.com/a/ic2uQgS). Last I checked, this wasn't a scientific community, but you're contributing to the bias. Yes, it's a small change in position, but it was a change.
Robotaxi was running V13 already apparently. CT is still on 12.5.5, the rest of HW4 is on 12.5.6.
Thanks for that data point. I'm curious what V13 added to the RoboTaxi. I'm sure it's end-to-end highway. Did you hear what might have changed? Perhaps it has beta ability to pick up and drop off passengers. Maybe it's incorporating the front bumper camera on V13, especially for that demo event. I did hear they were apparently doing a lot of training specifically on the WB lot. Maybe that was enough for the limited use case?
End to end on highway is already in FSD starting with v12.5.5. V13 adds reverse, park and unpark plus a much larger model (probably in both parameter count and training data) resulting in approximately 6x reduction in critical interventions
Thanks for the breakdown. Do you know if the front bumper camera is being used in V13?
I doubt it, since most hw4 cars don’t have the bumper cam. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they scanned the Warner Bros venue using lidar/radar for the event and used that to aid the robotaxis.
HW5/AI5 is coming - does that mean HW4 shouldnt exist?
Yup, likely. If the processing power difference is vast.
HW3: Unsupervised\* (Lite) HW4: Actually Smart Unsupervised
HW3 “processor” may be sufficient but the cameras with their resolution and overall image quality on HW4 cars are substantially superior. This alone may be enough to justify HW4 cars, because they may handle some situations better simply because those cameras can “see” better, especially in a car that relies on “vision” only systems for autonomous driving. What happens if those cameras are paired with an HW3 processor unit? That’s the question here. Can HW3 keep up with processing all that higher resolution image data? Or we need HW4 for that? That’s my curious question.
They set the precedent, and they are obligated to deliver. There is no difference here. Don't be daft. This community needs to understand this isn't just a goodwill decision by Tesla, it's a legal obligation to deliver.
Every hw update has had new cameras.
That's because they haven't started training on 9 camera setup yet.
Nope, HW3 didn't. And they haven't added more cameras since HW2 (except for the bumper camera on Cybertruck).
It's not really though. Ashok literally stated that the version running on 3 is a different net that is less robust. Think ChatGPT 4o-mini vs ChatGPT 4o.
Front bumper camera nor lidar is solving your imagined unprotected right issue. The positioning of the camera in question is next to a driver's head. "Leaping forward or turning your head" gives you 1 foot of additional vision. That 1 foot is not making or breaking autonomous driving. Similar to lidar units where the lidar is mounted above the driver's head. A human cannot see a vehicle behind a tree either, hence why creeping is necessary. There aren't any roads where an unprotected right necessitates blind turning into traffic without view from the driver's position and if that did exist it would be a local municipality issue where some bushes or trees get pruned as it's a hazard to any driver autonomous or not. Look at all videos of Chuck's left turn, that is about the most dangerous any situation will ever be for any driver and latest versions are nailing it nearly 100%.
Daft? Dude.. your naiveness is astounding and your confidence.. laughable.
> Daft? Dude.. your naiveness is astounding and your confidence.. laughable. Just in case you edit or delete, this is a pure Reddit moment that I will cherish with me for a long time. Thank you.
Glad tou enjoyed it. I live to please. The post is staying rock solid.
Oh, so basically, you are eligible to be a cheerleader and say something positive, but not an expert who can carefully predict the future limits of the setup.
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