Tesla: Cathie Wood Says Robotaxis Are the Real Growth Engine

You can tell it's true by all the profits Waymo is raking in ... oh wait

Good luck with that.

In her 2021 bull case scenario, Cathie Wood modeled Tesla selling **10M vehicles annually by 2025.** Reality: Tesla sold 1.6M vehicles in 2025.

Translation: Cathie Wood is another ignoramus who people sould be ignoring.

Fucking yikes. I’m just some guy, but I know robotaxi isn’t even close to being viable.

How dumb is this women or is she in on the grift ?

World's biggest charlatan promises infinite wealth! More at 11:00

Bullshit 👎

Bear case was 5M cars sold. https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2 Edit: bear case market cap forecast was 1.5 trillion. Almost spot on. This is mind-boggling.

Where can I prepay for an entry in the franchise licensing sweepstakes?

She lucked out by going all in on an irrational bet that suddenly went to the moon through sheer memeness. However after the extreme rise early on, her fund has been stagnant at best. Though the fund index shows an impressive lifetime gain, the fund also has the dubious distinction of being one of the greatest destructor of wealth there ever has been since the majority of the money in the fund came flowing in AFTER the great TSLA inflation. So now she’s desperate to capture her old “magic” so she’s hyping up whatever Elon says in the hope that some desperate fools will buy into her fund so she can siphon off some of it for her own enrichment.

Well wouldnt make sense trash talking something that you are heavily invested in. We have their track record, quite obvious that shes been wrong about everything except that the stock price went up. But thats kind of the nature of a massive pump n dump.

Her general analysis would be right if Elon's promises had panned out. If Teslas could earn $20k a year working as driverless rideshare drivers overnight, while their owners slept, almost anyone who could get a $40k car loan would want one. But that's still nowhere even in sight.

this is one of the things that baffles me. Yes, Tesla is planning to produce the things for like $30k (or so they say). Currently their 30 or so "robotaxi" model Y's would cost around $35-40k. It's a highly competitive low margin industry. It's like when Sirius and XM merged, people assumed they had a duopoly and were highly profitable. But the development and infrastructure costs--along with their real competition being terrestrial radio, CDs, and MP3 players--meant the industry was highly competitive. People are saying it's Tesla vs Waymo vs Zoox vs whomever. But most people drive their own vehicle, takes cabs, traditional ride share, many people take buses, subways, L-trains, light rail, etc. self-driving is only a piece of the pie. And I don't get how they expect the revenue pie to suddenly grow massively for robotaxi's side to be hugely profitable. Even if Tesla took over like 1/4 of rideshare and taxi in the US, it still wouldn't be worth $500B of value, and it's presently being given like 1/3-1/2 of the stock valuation.

Its beginning. The downfall of it all. AI, EVs…. Im selling popcorn

Cathy Wood’s Ark Fund is the biggest joke in investing. I’m surprised she hasn’t been thrown in jail for outright fraud.

Petition to start calling it bullishit

Always has been.

I haven’t been following too closely, is Tesla still up to 0 actual robo-taxi miles driven or have they surpassed that yet?

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This is why TSLA the meme stock is able to hold its ridiculous valuation, because of people like her, Ives, and other supposed ‘experts’ either knowingly or unwittingly promoting the great Tesla fraud.

Blows my mind this lady runs a fund

$30k? Wasn't the 100K CyberToaster supposed to be $40k? These people are just pulling things out of their asses and the public eats it up because they are even more ignorant, and too lazy to investigate properly. There is no more market for robotaxis than for regular taxis but over time they may bring the prices down.

I doubt she even believes this horseshit herself.

My portfolio is outperforming hers and I only have voo

So her claim to fame was just a big pump and dump?

Getting paid to say stupid shit.

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At some point in the distant future when self-driving reaches an acceptable safety level, it can and will be viable but not to the degree these people are hyping it up to be.

Except that like all the other grifters, she’s dumbassed her way to great wealth and prestige. I hate it here.

Waymo will be using Zeekr's EVs for its upcoming "[Ojai](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a69938250/waymo-ojai-autonomous-robotaxi-details/)" platform. So, net of tariffs, it is better value to use a Chinese EV as the base for a robotaxi.

Xaktli this.

i guess if they go from the current zero to 1 robotaxi, that represents infinite % growth.

Cathie Wood SHOULD be broke. Instead, it’s the world that is broken.

If it was really possible to invest $40k and get $20k/year in revenue, yes "everybody" would be doing it until the market became saturated to the point it's no longer profitable, then the weakest players in the industry will be filtered out until a balance is found, probably leaving 2-3 major players, each managing a large fleet.

The best scams in the world have always exploited others' greed.

Pump…a-n-n-n-d…dump.

> Edit: bear case market cap forecast was 1.5 trillion. Almost spot on. This is mind gobbling. For this Musk probably would have to buy LEGO.

My model Y alerts me to one of the cameras being blinded on a daily basis.

I think they had one run with the "supervisor" moved from the front seat to a chase car with a kill switch.

Trump and Musk are living proof that you can be evil morons and still become extremely wealthy. And develop a cult following of complete morons that believe their nonsense.

What also always gets me is that Teslas are probably one of the least well fit cars for this market. I have driven in so many Uber Taxis and I always see so many things that are broken. Teslas just aren't build to sustain taxi business and I doubt that people are treating a robo taxi better than a taxi with a physical driver who can kick their ass when they break something. It also doesn't really helps that Teslas are so difficult to repair.

Cathie the ultimate Musk simp and stock shill. Ignore.

Cool. So i am buying Waymo Tesla fanboys: NOT LIKE THAT!

And since there are no robotaxis, there's no growth.

It's crazy to see them continually price in elons promises, over value said promises even in the best case, and then pretend he delivered as they move onto the next thing

She believes in sky fairies, thus naming the fund over a ludicrous fictional tale written by ignorant goat herders two thousand years ago. Ergo her whole world view is shaped by complete delusional nonsense. She got lucky betting on TSLA, plain and simple.

Opening Soon: Morons ‘R’ Us

Still negative

Hahaha didn’t there dude just quit cause we don’t have the materials for enough robots lol

She has more shares to unload at a higher price. I mean they don’t even hide their hypocrisy well anymore.

Knock on Wood.

So one grift to the next

She makes money when people buy her ETFs. Follow the money

what angers me is, she has been making absurd claims since last 8 years at least. It would be so easy to fact check her, and call her out on all the shit she predicted about tesla, and literally NOTHING has come to fruition. Yet media never calls her out, and gives her platform to spew same nonsense

Contributing dozens of dollars to the bottom line as their existing fixed costs incinerate cash. Because that is what factories/manufacturing does.

She's still pumping because the normal thing to do would have been to cash out and find what's next with all the ungodly money she has to get top tier research. Instead, she's bereft of ideas so she keeps going deeper into the same hole.

Yet they have not sold a single one. Same with the Tesla car, I would never sit my ass on a Tesla taxi.

more bat shit insane than dumb. She is smart enough to convert the batfuckery into a scam. I hate this fucking clown world.

I mean look at Lyft and Uber. They barely make money. Even if you cut out the drivers. You have to add back in capital depreciation of vehicles and insurance.most of Uber and Lyfts costs come from advertising because they have to compete with eachother for market share how is Waymo and Tesla going to win the market without similar economics?

Yep, definitely a pump and dump.

Aunt Cathy's washed up

What growth?

Of course they are. Any huge Tesla hype has to always be something that doesn't exist.

Ark has always been a complete fraud and Cathy Wood had lied for her investments for over half a decade now.  She's shameless to be still shilling robotaxis

I'd hardly call it spot in of you've made 100 predictions together and just got 1 right. If you isolate that one yes, but then you could say that for anything. Collectively, even though the market cap reached 1.5t its still complete nonsense since its doesn't even line up with her own fundamentals to support that valuation i.e. 5 million cars sold will lead to 1.5t cap etc

No, she's a fraud

Being evil helps with becoming extremely wealthy. There's very, very few nice billionaires.

Also the Y being hard to get out of in case of fire... one of the reasons I put a deposit down on an R2 to swap out the Y.

Who the hell is keeping them afloat.

Trying to keep her growth engine going

Sounds like Cathie Wood is getting kickbacks

Waymo is years ahead of Tesla and still not turning a profit yet. It takes years to develop to make a profit. Maintenance, idle down time, cleaning,etc.

Can’t argue when someone says they get these as vision while they sleep

Add the valuations of Toyota, BMW, Uber and AMD and it would still be less than Tesla's lmao...

And a big collapse it will be if Trump serves three more years.

Tesla could have easily been producing 10 million vehicles today. The problem is, demand didn't keep up so they decided to stop building factories. That was a decision they made.

Not that it's important, but Tesla also still doesn't actually have any autonomous vehicles. Let alone $30k ones. Let alone $30k autonomous vehicles that can stand up to the abuse of ride share for more than a couple years. This whole thing is just so wild. They don't have any part of the (extremely complex) equation wrapped up. They're bragging like they're nearly there but they can't even sell the cars they've been making for 8+ years well. The singular new product they launched in this decade has failed on every metric. But people keep taking them seriously.

There is an entire ecosystem of worldwide asset management companies and people whose existence depends on irrational justification for the value of TSLA.

Sure, they just don’t have any other options now 🤷‍♂️ She didn’t say anything about competition on his sector and robotics either. They are late to the party

I just don’t understand how this would scale though. If everyone’s car is a robotaxi at night then there would be basically no way for it to generate money. A search says there are only 1.5 million ridershare drivers in the US. Search says the average cost ofna rideshare ride is $1-$3 per mile. But you’re only getting a percent of that a So your car needs to give 10k-20k miles in rides per year or more to make $20k. And thats just in rides not getting to and from your house and to the clients. And then there 1.5 million tesla owners in the US. So the market for rideshares would just get totally oversaturated. Like the issue with all these claims is they seem to rely on this assumption that robotaxis will be the dominant form of transportation or something and the way we think about transportation is completely different.

LEGO is privately owned by the founders family and not for sale. Good luck with that.

Cathy must buy her ketamine from Elons dealer

Like other Tesla products thetaxi are engine free so they have. No ability to grow proberverbly or financially.

Real problem is it's not just the US that is on shaky financial ground. Watching global financial markets it is looking like China and Russia are on rather poor financial grounds as is their client countries. Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and Israel all have major financial problems as well. Turns out making the rich tax free and relying on the poor to pay for their own repression is not sustainable.

Efficient market hypothesis is dead

Lmao 🤡🤌

Translate Cathy Woods -> English: This business model will go down the drain

Does anybody listen to this lady anymore?

They can't even produce a passenger vehicle for 30k but sure...

No fund has incinerated more investor funds than Ark. If Cathy hadn’t bet the farm on a meme coin, she’d be running the front end of a Wendys by now.

If you needed proof that Cathie is a flaming jackass, here it is.

She gets all her stock tips from Jesus. She sold Nvidia right as AI was starting to take off. She thinks we’re going to have deflation this year and that it’s a good thing for the economy. The economy is going to explode into a new golden age this year according to her.

> And a big collapse it will be if Trump serves three more years. Three... fuck man 10-24 more months... we not even make it past 2026.

> So her claim to fame was just a big pump and dump? Yes.

If you remove the labour cost out of a taxi company, would that make it one of the most valuable companies on the planet?

"Our original growth engine was horrednously outcompeted by China. Here's a new growth engine! It has a much smaller TAM and fierce competition that is further along with their offering, but it will totally both save and transform Teslur!"

Hasn't she has been selling/reducing her TSLA holdings the past month or so?

And 41% gross margin, $42 billion in revenue from "human-driven ride hailing"...

TSLA can easily produce *2 million* vehicles today, but I don't know why that matters since they can't *sell* 2 million cars anymore.

In fairness, what's the alternative? She would have to go out and say "Our leader, Musk, is a liar and wrong on his predictions." There's no way she could do that and keep her job. Tesla sells vaporware, they sell hopes and dreams to pump up the stock. That's what the company is, and shes' just doing her job.

Ms Wood was a little bit too optimistic. ;)

Uber drivers are lucky to make $20/hour before expenses and taxes. No way could a Tesla make that $20k/year net running just during off peak hours especially considering it'd need to spend time charging. In reality if this was actually made available to the millions of Teslas in the US the earnings potential would drop to next to nothing through competitive pressure and because a lot of people don't know how to do total costs analysis. But I really doubt Tesla would ever allow vehicles they don't own on their autonomous taxi service (if they ever truly have one)

I'm sure he has plenty of grifts up his sleeve.  We already have space based data centers on the chart. I'm sure Dyson sphere is coming.   He will go on stage and ask the audience if they have ever heard of the sun then talk about how easy it would be to create a large structure around it to harness its energy. The crowd will cheer and Tesla stock will soar to 1 septillion dollars even though they will only sell 100 cars that year.  Meanwhile there will be no Tesla bots because China did it better, no mass scale robo taxis because others are doing it better and DC will have a tunnel, dubbed the "Trump artery", going straight to McDonald's with 30 Tesla's driving in a loop at .01 mph for president Alex Jones or whatever.  The speed of the cars was determined by the speed of blood moving through Trump's body when he died...

yeah it was Tasha's great work that got me onto the long side in 2021, starting in March. I saw the post-S&P inclusion bump had worn off and it might be a good entry at $200-240 ($600 - $720 then). I felt like a genius by December, only to see it all collapse in 2022. I got some moon-shot OTM calls December 2022 which rescued everything by mid-2023 LOL.

What's really funny to me is how she keeps wildly moving the goal posts. For years ARK was all about "Wright's Law" scaling making Tesla EVs super ubiquitous and dirt cheap very rapidly, but in a way that somehow didn't apply to anyone else's EVs. That obviously didn't happen at all so she pivoted to ride sharing, then more broad autonomy and humanoid robots. There's never even an attempt to explain why they were so wrong before but won't be now.

Self driving cars create another problem if every car can self drive, anyone could run a taxi service, and there will be too many to make any money

Keen actually: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkFJAJnvY5Q

*Derrière chaque grande fortune se cache un crime*

Cathie wood? THE cathie wood that had her funds crushed by a sledgehammer in 2021/2022 because hyper-growth got destroyed? And we found out all along basically her entire return portfolio was just from TSLA. Why do we care about what she says?

Someone should ask her point black how she feels about her terrible TSLA predictions and how they were far from being close to true

Bear case share price $1,500 LOL Also, for insurance revenue they put a lower revenue in the bull case then the bear case... wtf was ark even doing? I could put together a better set of research then this wtf edit: dude the more I scroll down in this web page the more I see that is just fucking blatantly incorrect. for example the plot of share price vs % chance, why does the Y axis even go fucking negative? its a share price, it cant go fucking negative....

I figure they'll just recycle them every year, I mean they're making so much money, right??

She just got insanely lucky being very long TSLA right before it catapulted from a 30-40b market cap to like 1T. Thats it. that's literally all she did. And she's still trying to do the exact same strategy to this day, by claiming Tesla will be a 20T market cap company in 10 years because they've solved the robotaxi problem and invented time travel or some shit.

They're proof that above all else, propaganda is king.

It's just copium. Yeah, in a utopian society, we all have self driving cars, with a perfectly zero accident rate, since all cars will sync together and there will never be a need for lights anymore, but thats just impossible in practice. Technology even at the upper echelon's of humanity's progress still have failures every now and then. Now, I'm not saying FSD is impossible, but I do think it is an immensely difficult problem that griftLon severely underestimated the difficulty of. But maybe in 100 years we'll have robotaxis that are 100 times safer then humans, although still it will never be fully error proof. But anyways, yeah, the market really does believe tesla will solve FSD and will have 60% software margins on an automotive product. I don't see it happening myself

Dan Ives literally wears a rainbow suit on live television. He's a clown to the fullest extent of the meaning of the word clown. Dude legitimately dresses like one. I can't wait to look back 10-20 years from now and laugh at the fraud that is elon musk finally exposed

Yes. That's what I've never understood about the 'every car can be a robotaxi' argument. The over supply of vehicles would drive the price down making it a low margin business not a trillion dollar opportunity.

And on the global market they have to compete against China. Baidu's Apollo Go robotaxis are the cheapest to make and they currently operate in 22 cities .

She should be arrested of impersonating a professional investor. Do any of her funds beat an index since inception.

its not an engine, its a motor, aunty cath.

Someone should break the news to her on the sad state of Robotaxi. That will all but be irrelevant and shut down within the next 2 years for them to 'focus 🤭' on Robots. Or whatever stock pump that everyone buys in on and is also in on the con.

Woods is a one trick pony and got lucky during Covid. Why is she still in the news? She's just like Kramer.

Not to mention: if the owner is sleeping, so are most other potential riders.

I love how this sub still exists. The last time I checked it the market cap of Tesla was like 100b. You guys are a fetish community and all the new recruits don’t get to see how bad you are at predicting teslas downfall which is 0%.

We need investors like this to take the other side of winning trades

Nice meltdown

Cathie “INNOVATION” Wood Perhaps her fund’s success was just not in God’s plan

F..k Cathie Wood, there is no hedge fund that promotes Elon than this bitch.

But I thought they weren’t a car company

No they are not

Awww, how much did Elon pay her to say that

Cathie Wood is dumb as a stick... of wood. I think she is literally a meme/joke of billionaires at this point. They keep giving her money as a joke.

Ugh not this lady again. I think she gets high off her own farts.

Nail in the coffin if Cramer says even a word.

Did you just give me an outline for my next Novel, or maybe a sequel. Idiocracy 2 : The Search for More Brawndo. Common sense is a superpower and the lead character has to explain how a library used to work.

It changing by the week. One week its the electrification of cars. Then its the robotaxi market. Then its the Optimus robots. Then its the SpaceX talk. These people are just pumping their own bags.

I agree with you 100%. But my explanation comes from my once very intelligent boomer father, who worships Elon because he's rich and therefor must be a genius. The wealth is what infers the genius to many people. So they trust his "vision" because he's rich, so obviously everything he's done has been a success and this new thing will be a success too.

I think the cost of the driver is equaled out to the cost of deprecation that is placed on drivers and not the company.

Kathie Wood's models aren't out that far. Nobody can see past 5 years. If they claim they can, they're lying. Variables cause too much fuzziness beyond 5 years. It's too much space for one big thing to emerge and change the course of everything. 4 years ago Zuckerberg was about to leverage his empire for the MetaVerse. and now he's doing it for A.I. Datacenters. Which wasn't a massive thing like it is now.

4 years ago. Zuckerberg was leveraging his company for the MetaVerse. Now he's doing it for A.I. datacenters. Nobody can see out beyond 5 years. The variables are just too fuzzy and the space too large for something big to enter and change the current course trajectory of everything. 5 years ago, nobody was talking about A.I. except Google. If I'm placing money bets, I'm sticking with Google who has enough power, money and influence to actually SHAPE the future in the direction they choose. Not Musk, Not Wood.

Brawndo has what books need!

> For years ARK was all about "Wright's Law" scaling making Tesla EVs super ubiquitous and dirt cheap very rapidly, but in a way that somehow didn't apply to anyone else's EVs. > > There was a great graph at "Battery Day" where Telsla would suddenly massively outperform the likes of CATL. And then of course in reality it didn't happen at all and CATL et al left them in the dust.

You've already thought about this more than Cathie.

Oh please. Tesla are history.

And we get a cyber turd... Bravo fElon

Yep, it's nuts. That bear case is not only based on 5M vehicle sales, but also $42 billion in revenue from ride hailing with human drivers (double Uber's 2024 ride hailing revenue), and $23 billion in insurance revenue. Actual sales were closer to 1.64 million, ride hailing revenue was probably under a million dollars total, and insurance revenue was around $1 billion. Tesla's current value is based on nothing more than extreme overvaluation of the company, whereas ARK's analysis badly missed the mark on all accounts except for ironically the market cap. That's confirmed in the excessively elevated forward pe of 200, which is now 3x higher than it was at the start of 2024, while their vehicle sales fell sequentially in 2024 and 2025, cybertruck sales has been a disaster, no high volume lower cost model, semi truck manufacturing is still next to nothing, no roadster, 4680 cells haven't lived up to hype, lithium prices crashed giving Tesla's new Lithium refinery far less profit potential (while multiple battery companies are looking to pivot away from Lithium), FSD is still not fully autonomous and there are no "robotaxis" (fully autonomous taxis without an employee in the car) in service. Optimus meanwhile looks like as blatant a scam as any company has ever pushed. No wonder she's been selling some shares (albeit a small percentage) and taking some profits. The only shining light has been battery storage deployments, and given Tesla's enormous deployment levels per quarter, I personally find it extremely strange that there aren't loads of news reports confirming these installations. Tesla is reporting over 10 GWh per quarter, but news reports may only confirm 1-2 GWh per quarter. These installations seem to have soared after Tesla opened their Chinese Megapack factory, so maybe most are in China/Asia, explaining the lack of coverage. If so, I imagine the margins are lower than if they'd been installed in higher cost of living nations. The major negative is that Tesla is still utilizing 3rd party cells to build their grid storage products, so is paying middle man fees, while the actual cell suppliers like LG, CATL, BYD, and others are rapidly scaling into the storage game directly and will be able to undercut Tesla's prices and take their market share. Or at least they would if Tesla's government didn't have Musk by the balls, and couldn't so easily manipulate him. There's more competition in EVs than ever and more on their way, plenty of autonomous taxi competition, a new autonomous ADAS system for personal vehicles coming out of Nvidia with multiple other companies interested in jumping on that bandwagon. Tesla's R&D engineering team, outside of AI related stuff, seems to have completely evaporated with Tesla losing a huge amount of existing engineering talent to other companies in the past few years, while new talent now has far more companies they're considering. Maybe Tesla's CEO giving nazi salutes wasn't great for attracting new talent.

1 horse?

Don't forget the 500 mile range that was promised

Nah, supply and demand doesn't work in Tesla fantasy land

Another number he just spontaneously spewed out from his rectum.

I hope she’s one of the ones that is caught holding the bag last.

Implied in the 10m ARK forecast was the notion that they would build vehicles people wanted and not cyberdumpsters. Then they would have had a long shot chance of selling a 45% market share (10 million this year) EVs.

Whenever Cathie Wood says something bet on the complete opposite.

Don't forget the Vegas tunnels. Built for autonomous cars years ago, Still just taxi drivers driving back and forth all day underground (seems like a terrible job).

China already has 3 robotaxi companies

who is the customer for robot axis? taxi fleet operators?

Yes, they've never made clear if they intend on operating them like Waymo, or if they sell them for others to maintain and operate. In theory, since they're not a car company, they should operate the taxis themself 😉

she is never wrong, and elon never lies