It is not the umber of miles that matter. It is the quality of miles. Rain, Snow, Fog, Night, Bad roads. Unsupervised is never gonna happen.
Lying liar lies again. In Germany there is currently a snow storm. Ask Tesla drivers how often they see the "Kamera XYZ funktioniert nicht (Camera XYZ is non-functional)“ pop-up today.
Musk moves between feel good statements and quantitative statements. (And I mean feel good as in 'feels good to the people driving his stock price.") It is how cons work. Not only shift the content of a statement but the qualitative/quantitative content of each statement. It makes it difficult to connect the lines in a linear fashion. In Musks case, he has got away with it for so long, it literally is becoming farcical. Most cons don't last this long. But, it is the play that is known to work. It is the llay that has worked. It is the play that Musk will continue to follow.
>Rain, Snow, Fog, Night, Bad roads So, basically, the types of environments where cameras are a worse choice than LiDAR?
I know the term 'AI' is massively overused, but if a learner driver needed 10 billion miles of experience to pass their test, we'd consider them unsafe to be driving a car.
Yea, its not like 3 billion miles on sunny highways will make this work better on a rainy day in the countryside.
It’s cute how Fred acts all indignant and calls fElon a liar, while simultaneously seeming to buy the idea that the 10 billion number is actually valid. Cue Brokeback Mountain *I wish I knew how to quit you…* gif.
He can take it out of his ridiculous salary.
I think hes too stubborn to admit he was wrong with lidar and has stalled self driving. This plus the bad decision of the cybertruck and the lack of the “cheap tesla” have destroyed Teslas lead.
True. After all, we're talking about an idiot who claimed their mass production cars would appreciate in value.
So, uh, no driverless Robotaxis in 2026? Line go up!
Tesla is, for all practical purposes, attempting to teach a system with *maybe* chimp-level brain power to drive. Sure it can make the car move, but there’s no way you can ever trust it for any useful time or distance.
Oh, water is wet, more news at 11.
Who’s the bigger idiot - the person who tells the obvious lie, or the army of jackasses who believe him?
Sudden fog on a freeway is a bad one. No radar is really bad. At least Nvidia is going with the vision plus radar route. Edge cases will keep taking FSD further and further away. What would be the point of FSD if it disengages at the last second before an eminent accident?
To be fair, Lidar systems also fail often in snow.
True, Musk is not an idiot, tesla fans are. And made him the richest 'idiot' on earth
They do but then FSD is named wrong. Should be MSD
Its not about worse. If you have optical camera, ultrasonic, radar and LiDAR all simultaneously you aggregate the data and each system might see a little tiny bit and together you can get a complete picture what is happening around you. Telsa has: optical camera. He got rid of ultrasonic and radar. He thinks LiDAR is not needed.
That’s true, but this message is also very normal in sunny conditions, because the cameras are blinded by the lights.
I think he's desparate to make real time vision work for his ai/robotics stuff and he's using the cars as the live test platform.
To be fair to "to be fair", we usually don't say "to be fair" when the context is about a person or company not lying or engaging in false advertisment, but when it's a genuine mistake.
That error message was my constant companion for 4 years 🤣 So glad I drive a Polestar 4 now…while far from perfect, it at least feels like a real car.
broken by design is more the truth, aka cameras to save a few bucks
His stiff right arm has more to do with it, he literally alienated a huge part of his potential customer base. A cheap tesla can be bought used already and they still do not sell here in Europe!
Even worse, he previously made statements that make clear that he believes that “sensor contention” is a problem. Well no, it is a feature, not a bug. Sensor Fusion is a thing. If two modalities agree on what they are seeing you can be more confident that what they are seeing is actually real. If two sensors disagree on what they are seeing it is evidence that something strange is going on and you might want to be careful.
I dont mean cheap used. Cheap new like what BYD has to offer.
Let me guess, somewhere in there he also made a promise of doing something revolutionary “as early as next year”? That’s his usual grift. Always going to be next year.
That isn't better
Ship navigation systems using half a dozen position inputs simultaneously, dynamically assigning them relative weights on the fly based on uncertainty, have been a thing for twenty plus years now. Literally run them on Windows 95. They can sail halfway around the world and dock themselves at the other end, full self steering. Not being able to integrate two modalities is just sad.
would not make a difference, at least here in Europe. Adding to Musks stiff right hand and other problems he has caused with his 1933-45 world view from a german perspective, he now lets his AI run amok with ai generated deepfake porn and child porn now flooding X and he has no problem with it. This is now hitting mainstream media as well. Tesla == Musk in the public view and to some degree it is because the majority of shares are his and his friends and families!
A chimp has ten thousand times the brain power. Highly error prone, to be sure, but any efforts to seriously quantify the capacity of primate nervous systems gets into the "gigabytes per second of incoming data" range. And a large chunk of that is just the optic nerve bundle. The computer trying to drive a car is minuscule by comparison.
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A human learner's brain has 5-6 orders of magnitude more "computing" power than a Tesla.
It's not an either-or. At the end of the day you need both. There aren't a lot of safety-critical systems where having *fewer* data sources would be considered a positive.
How can that be when they're already deployed in the streets? Oh, was that bullshit? Shocking.
Come on, you missed the occasion to use light years instead of miles..
They were actually planned without a steering wheel and pedals to save costs.
Rivian
FSD delayed, sales down, so Tesla stock will be up today
Full Self Delusion
Wait til the car ages and the CCDs start wearing out.
Slate is coming soon.
"Ходит дурачок по лесу, Ищет дурачок глупее себя." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn-kNOhoeMM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn-kNOhoeMM)
It's kind of hilarious before New Years it was "any day now unsupervised robotaxi" "most likely today" "unsupervised cars spotted". And suddenly all permabulls are like, yeah, they will reach 10billion in June so unsupervised in June! There is 0 acknowledgement from their side that they were just saying it is any day now.
What about data bias? Most of the data will come from areas where FSD already works well, because that’s where people will use it. If it fails several times on the first drive where you live, you’re much less likely to use it regularly or at all. So is the data they’re getting actually the data they need? I doubt it.
He is a little like everyone's idiot uncle at thanksgiving. If you listen to him, everything in the world is a super easy problem for him to solve, and he has all the super obvious answers. As far as he's concerned, if he was in charge, everything would be done instantly. Then you ask your Uncle a few questions like "well, did you think about this...?" or "there's a reason they do X,Y, and Z, did you know that?" Then they get all flustered, because they aren't able to see nuance or complication, they just want to look at things at a super shallow level, throw out some trite, easy answer, then move on. Musk is the same. I think he mostly DOES believe in his 1,000 stupid bogus predictions because he doesn't think deeply enough about things. DOGE is the *perfect* example here. He really was like everyone's dumb Uncle. "If I was in charge of the government, I'd save trillions and make everything better!!!" Then what did he do? He got in there, flailed around getting almost nothing done, causing chaos, saving no money, and then running away and pretendng it never happened. THAT is Musk summarized. Someone who is happy to make bold predictions, but doesn't understand actual reality.
Thank god Musk doesn’t build planes because he’d be ripping all kinds of safety shit out to prove some point. “Pitot tube? Sounds woke, just put a camera there”
doesnt he have 10 billion human miles already? In fact which car company does not have 10 billion miles captured in cameras?
Funny how for years the Tesla fanboys were preaching how Tesla had so many more miles than Waymo. Problem is it’s not miles needed. It’s quality analysis of the miles you have.
They should just go ahead and start calling them Goldilock cameras
It wasn't any better in my Toyota though. Most of the time my parking sensors stopped working in snow conditions.
Why are you taking a Tesla swimming in the dark with you? Oh I get it, the only good place for that piece of shit car is at the bottom of a lake.
Revved up like a deuce?
Both? Both.
That is why California has a lawsuit against Tesla with threats to suspend sales: for falsely advertising FSD and Autopilot.
Here we go again. Even Fred says things like "millions of edge cases." If there are "millions" then those aren't "edge cases" -- just "cases." Saying "millions of edge cases" is like saying "heavily populated rural area." The point being, driving is complicated. Every time FSD goofs it's swept aside as an "edge case."
That’s why responsible Car Makers use Cameras, Lidar AND Radar in their sensor suite. Guess who does not belong to this group?
"free speech maximalist" = Gresham's Law in discourse
yeah, cockroach might be more accurate. Never thought of it that way but with ~10,000 miles on FSD that matches my experience
Another rumor in the night.
Not to mention he alienated the political group that was most likely to buy his cars by going full Nazi in front of the planet.
Never going to happen with cameras you dummy
"10 billion miles" the average driver is around 12,000 miles/yr x 50 years so 10B = life experience of 16,000 drivers. Why not 100,000 drivers? 1M drivers? This is just Elon admitting the last 1% is still 20% of the work. Every software developer knows and lives that.
Snow storm is a pretty tough measure though.
If we had 8 fingers, he’d only need 8 billion miles!
Actually he's just making excuses. With current hardware Teslas will NEVER be fully autonomous. He's just lying to keep the stock up. Tesla isn't a car corporation. Nor robots. And neither an AI corporation. It's only in the value of stock business. And Tesla business - stock value - is booming. Still. Until implodes.
I'm amazed at the lengths Musk goes to avoid confessing that cars need to be multimodal. Knowing how to behave in an edge is less important than knowing there's an edge case to begin with. Lidar only costs a few thousand dollars anyway.
They R&D department finally got through to him.
That's insanely generous to Tesla.
Doesn’t matter. That stock only goes up. For now
Ironically, the average human can learn the basics in less than 8 miles and can be nearly a pro by 80 miles….
So how many miles is he gonna say once it reaches that?
A human learners brain uses the same amount of power as a light bulb.
Yea, my hyunday cruises just fine even in heavy snow, most cars with a radar does, distance control to the vehicle in front is flawless because of the radar. The model ss had radar and was alot better than modern tzla vehicles as a result.
i like to pretend that his ai knows he’s an asshole and is showing how unstable it can go with malicious compliance. good job u/askgrok you rock my socks off sometimes. you can keep a “good” man down, i see. hahhahahahhahhahahhaha
“Maybe” was doing a lot of lifting in my comment.
I try to be fair.
*"And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we’ll achieve Full Self-Driving* ***this year****, yes, with data safety level significantly greater than present."* \- Canadian Conniver, Jan 26, **2022**, speaking directly to shareholders *"I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human* ***this year.*** *This is a very big deal."* \- TechnoGrifter, January 27, **2021** Speaking directly to investors. *"We expect to be feature complete in self driving* ***this year****, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."* \- CyberSwindler, April 22**,** 2019 At Autonomy Day
Remind of of when Toyota peddled their ADAS as SAE Level 5 self driving nirvana.
Well he only likes free speech as long as it drives his worldview...
Obviously he knows nothing and is just pulling numbers out of his arse, I’d say he was pulling the numbers from his head but his head remains firmly up his own arse so same place really
Bingo. His grade school teacher correctly assessed him early on.
Few humans are equipped to really think so disinformation >> information
Elon says his AI is so much smarter than humans. I remember driving 20 billion miles before taking my driving test. At 60mph 8 hours a day it took me a thousand centuries but it was worth it.
The equivalent of completely removing your smoke detectors because they beep when the battery is low.
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And the quality of real world data the cars get through a diverse sensor set.
That warning has been permanently on in my car since I bought it. if the car is not fresh out of a car wash, it will throw that message all the time
If it's supervised, it's not Full.
As far as I’m concerned, if it’s Musk or Trump and their lips are moving they are lying.
Absolutely. You can be sure that number is not based on any research any studies or even reports Tesla might have formulated internally about how much data they need. It's just a big round number that Musk sees people buying as within reach that he pulled straight out of his ass.
Doesn't matter how many miles you collect if you don't have the right sensor array. It's been hilarious watching the Tesla fanboys pretend waymo is dead in the water because it needs an expensive sensor array and then quote LIDAR costs from 10 years ago
Lidar is bad in all of those as well, if not worse. Problem isn't his approach, it's his lies that it's just around the corner vs 15 years away and multiple GPU power scaling factors.
Look in a mirror.
He is setting up to sell 10 million Robotaxis and 5 million Optimus very very soon. Trust him.
Yeah, that number is completely random and meaningless. Not to mention that Tesla has ZERO autonomous miles. Tesla is unable to tell whether FSD acted correctly or incorrectly. It's been trained by morons who keep allowing FSD to break the law and make dangerous moves. They've been training on crap, if they've been training at all.
It's funny because they're both usually talking out their ass.
I get his logic for vision only, ya of humans do it that way and infrastructure is designed for it. But humans also have ears, motion and vibration sensors, smell, intuition and other abilities that are helpful for driving. And beyond that why not make the car use vision but super human vision enhanced with lidar, radar, ultrasonic and what not. Why not make it better than a human. This was 100% justification for keeping costs low. He knew his end goal and made up facts to support it. Rather than let facts and science drive the development
That's why there's radar. Mercedes: "Unlike Tesla's Full Self-Driving, which uses just a camera feed to do supervised point-to-point navigation, MB.Drive Assist Pro is made possible with 10 cameras, five radar sensors, and a dozen ultrasonic sensors. Data from these sensors along with map information is then analyzed by artificial intelligence powered by Nvidia. For every control change, the AI generates 10 possible outcomes. When eight of those agree on a safe path/action, then MB.Drive Assist Pro executes." [https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a69918627/mercedes-benz-mb-drive-assist-pro-sampled/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a69918627/mercedes-benz-mb-drive-assist-pro-sampled/) They don't mention it there, but I think they use Lidar also.
If you know what a pitot tube is, this is funny.
Keely's "etheric engine" scam went on for like 30 years and defrauded some of the wealthiest people in the US. IIRC, this was about a century ago. Patrick Boyle has a YouTube video about it called the Vaporware Salesman which fans of this sub will appreciate for its easter eggs.
As I understand it, they automatically turn into coffins after a serious accident, at additional charge, of course.
How many teslas do you think he he has driving circles around tracks to artificially inflate that number?
This means it also needs better hardware, more expensive memory at the very least.
Did he say 10bn, he means 100bn... but you can only get that data if you give him a new pay package. I've lost and made a lot of money off Tesla, and I hate to see an American company eat shit ... but the day the house of cards folds, it's 84' Dom.
Is anyone surprised?
Mercedes is not Even at the level of tesla with all their sensors. Look it up. So many restrictions and limitation You’re not really giving a good comparison jere
Typical european trying to equate anyone they don’t like to Germany Nazis Provide proof of your claims. You can’t.
Bulshiterr in chief strike again? Oh no.. I didn’t see that coming 🙄
Clean the front windshield camera*
While driving…
It’s beyond that. The entire pitch of his business model is that they “already have a fleet of fully autonomous capable cars on the road” that just need a software update to work. If it turns out that won’t work the company’s kinda toast. The entire valuation is based on the idea they will be the biggest player in autonomous vehicles due to that advantage. If that doesn’t work it’s over. It’s more than just stubbornness. It’s necessity at this point.
You mean I just gave an explanation from a european perspective why his cars do not sell here in europe... But what do I know living in a german speaking country talking to people here who love EVs but would not touch Tesla with a 10 foot pole because of his behavior. You want proof just read up on his family history and why his granddaddy went to south africa and then read up on his messages or that he basically was speaking at a german nazi party convention shortly after his stiff upper arm incident in front of the world among many other things. But sure as a European i am completely ignorant why Europeans wont buy his cars anymore, that must be it! Face it Musk is Teslas biggest problem and the damage he has done to it is beyond repair!
Pull new number out of the air. Stock goes up. Elon is a trillionaire. Is he going to be King of the USA? I mean, why not? What can you not do with a trillion dollars in the hands of one unaccountable, miserable excuse for a human, goon.
2021 Y has radar. I don’t think it’s on anymore tho
Upvote for sure. I’m American and see what’s going on. You have to remember that most Americans are enamored with someone who can become the world’s richest man by riding on other people’s backs and ideas. As is being seen, America is in the midst of the biggest grift that’s ever been perpetuated on the world, financially and politically. We buy this BS hook, line and sinker.
unfortunately this is a common pattern in many countries have in mind so called alt right, lets call them by their real names, Fascists have between 20 and 35% in man European countries. I am one of the few who "unfortunately" is not history ignorant and I can see the patterns from the third Reich and other Fascists regimes in those parties everywhere. Also it helped that I could talk with a lot of people of this generation when I was younger! It is not only the USA which has this problem atm. The root cause why those people gain power are deeper however, because a ton of people are under pressure to make it through the day and they do not vote with their brains but their guts, and then they vote for hatemongers who successfully tell them xxx is to blame and promise an easy exit. Once they are in power they become deeply unpopular usually due to corruption and war mongering, but often it is too late, because democracy by then is damaged. The third Reich was an exception first, because Hitler did a lot of deficit spending, but by 1938 germany basically was bankrupt so he had to start wars and invasions to keep the "machine" going, by 1945 with the country in ruins people definitely were fed up, as were the people in italy with Mussolini, who ended up hanging on a tree because he was so hated. But after lets say 4-5 generations all this is forgotten again and the grandchildren and grand grandchildren of those people are crawling out of their holes now to get into power with the same ideas which already led several countries into poverty and endless violence! Musk fits perfectly into this pattern, his granddaddy fled from Canada to South Africa because he thought that Apartheid SA basically was a continuation of Nazi germany in some ways and Musks behavior and words all basically come from the same angle, at least have come the last few years, when Ketamine ripped the masks off he wore before! Do not forget he never was poor his dad made a fortune with illegal diamond mines he sold on the black market! Trump is very similar in this regard if you look at the family history! Its not like children and grandchildren are as evil as their parents, but in some cases they are or even worse. Musks daughter for instance is a very decent person! It speaks a ton about Musks character that he never cared for her and now despises her! Well it says a ton that he does not care for any of his children!
Well for one you can prop up your stock price with a trillion dollars lol
It's absolutely hilarious.
There's a set of controlled tests that demonstrates otherwise.
Depending on when it was last serviced at Tesla, it may not be installed anymore.
> This plus the bad decision of the cybertruck and the lack of the “cheap tesla” have destroyed Teslas lead. then just to make sure he destroyed the brand. the man who is intrisically linked to Tesla went from one of the most popular figures in the western world to literally the most hated, hated more than Putin and Trump.
I don't think I watched that one yet.
Admits? No. Makes up another random story on the spot.
Don’t forget that Tesla was originally using radar sensors and was dropped by their provider, Mobileye, due to safety concerns. Mobileye now provides sensors to a lot of other mainstream brands. Elon likely realized it would be too expensive to source the parts from another provider so he pivoted to the camera only approach and pretended it was a good thing.
or "I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year." -- July 2025. He needed to add a few more "probablies" in there I guess.
re-framing this as trying to train a cockroach to drive is just about right.
Liar lies about needing lidar
From a country that can legally sell you 'boneless chicken' with bones. They knew what they were doing when they slapped FSD or Autopilot in the car spec.
Can’t wait for level 5 driverless in 2016!!!
Or they don't sell features in their cars which actively lie about their capabilities like "auto pilot", or "full self drive". Apparently engineers originally wanted "auto pilot" to be called "driver assist" but Musk insisted on the name change. I'm sure he knew of the implication of changing the name but didn't give a fuck.
Yes Tesla cheaped out on $50 of parts because the camera could do everything. Except when it can't.
I see this pop-up all the damn time on roads I usually drive at night. This is why I know Tesla will never be higher than level 2 automation. Having one point of failure before complete failure will never allow Tesla to have automated driving. This is also probably why you never see a "cybercab" operating at night.
It must just happen to be at 9 billion miles or something lol
Singularity just around the corner, so what's the problem with FSD now Elon?
worst ceo ever.
Math; 10.000.000.000 / 40.075 = a swift 250 trips around the globe 🌎
bUt hUmAnS uSe oNly tHeIr eYeS. (And sound, proprioception and a brain that can see ONE cat and can then discern if an animal is a cat or not instead of having to see ALL the cat pictures on the internet and even then if you change 67 pixels it thinks it’s a fire truck)
Not even close. Fruit fly maybe and that’s a big maybe. A chimp doesn’t need to see EVERY possible cat in existence to know what a cat is. A couple will suffice. AI bros try to sell us the fact that scaling will get us there and the only difference between a biological neural network and a software one is processing power. That’s absolutely not the case. Neurons can talk to themselves, tyey modulate excitatory levels in real time, intaxonal communication, dentrite movement, neurotransmitter modulation via vesicle and cell membrane permeability, transport proteins, proteases, metabolism, receptor sensitivity modulation. And that’s just for ONE neuron and we haven’t even begin to understand what happens in the genomic level. And THEN you get to the hard stuff like wtf do the glial and astricytes do and THEN you get the REAL hard stuff like structure And organization.
It’s not just computing power. It’s a completely different paradigm. Neuron networks in software have very little in common with actual neurons. A single neuron can communicate with it self in multiple ways. It has censors and a host of supporting cells. There are things we are just beggining to understand like how neurons alter receptor sensitivity, intraaxonal communication, neurotransmitter modulation via vesicle and membrane permeability. And then we have no clue what happens at the genomic level. And that’s just ONE neuron. We have the most minuscule of understanding of the actuall brain organization. Best we can do is FMRI which just shown the metabolic activity in different parts of the brain with horrible resolution. And there was a recent study that showed that metabolic activity isn’t the only indicator of neuronal structures activation.
As I said before - “maybe” was doing a lot of lifting in my comment. I offered a hypothetical some time ago in which I posited an investment analyst quashing a report saying that the next big breakthrough in AI was going to depend on a major leap in quantum computing. Of course, an AI Bro responded to tell me how wrong I was, and that he personally knew that AI was not dependent on quantum computing. You start to understand why AI can’t advance when you interact with its proponents and developers, and note their lack of things like self-awareness, ability to grasp the idea of a hypothetical, and even sense of humor. And I’m becoming increasingly convinced that you in fact *would* need a substantial leap in quantum computing to be able to come close to mimicking a mammalian brain.
There’s a good book in the mentality of the tech bros and the feasibility of AI called “more everything forever”. It’s not technical nor anything ground breaking but it’s a nice easy read
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